Showing posts with label Price/Sales. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Price/Sales. Show all posts

Sunday 25 December 2016

Valuing companies with little or no earnings or with very volatile and highly unpredictable earnings.

Companies with no earnings or very volatile and highly unpredictable earnings

Some companies, like high tech startups, have little, if any, earnings.

If they do have earnings, they tend to be quite volatile and therefore highly unpredictable.

In these cases, valuation procedures based on earnings (and even cash flows) are not much  help.





Price to Sales ratio or Price to Book Value ratio

Investors turn to other procedures - those based on sales or book value.

While companies may not have much in the way of profits, they almost always have sales and, ideally, some book value.




Price to Sales ratio

Price to Sales ratio


P/S = Market price of common stock / Sales per share


Sales per share equals net annual sales (or revenues) divided by the number of common shares outstanding.

Many bargain hunting investors look for stocks with P/S ratios of 2.0 or less.

They believe that these securities offer the most potential for future price appreciation.



Very low P/S multiples of 1.0 or less are especially attractive

Especially attractive to these investors are very low P/S multiples of 1.0 or less.

Think about it:  With P/S ratio of, say, 0/9, you can buy $1 in sales for only 90 cents!

So long as the company isn't a basket case, such low P/S multiples may well be worth pursuing.




High P/S aren't necessarily bad.

While the emphasis may be on low multiples, high P/S ratios aren't necessarily bad.

To determine if a high multiple - more than 3.0 or 4.0, for example - is justified, look at the company's net profit margin.

Companies that can consistently generate high net profit margins often have high P/S ratios.




Valuation rule to remember:

High profit margins should go hand in hand with high P/S multiples.

That make sense because a company with a high profit margin brings more of its sales down to the bottom line in the form of profits.



Tuesday 19 July 2016

The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing 10

Valuation – The Basics

Even the most wonderful business is a poor investment if purchased for too high a price. To invest successfully means you need to buy great companies at attractive prices.

Investors purchase an asset for less than their estimate of its value and receive a return more or less in line with the financial performance of that asset. Speculators, by contrast, purchase an asset not because they believe it's actually worth more, but because they think another investor will pay more for it at some point. The return that investors receive on assets depends largely on the accuracy of their analysis, whereas a speculator's return depends on the gullibility of others.

Over time, the stock market's returns come from two key components: investment return and speculative return. [...] the investment return is the appreciation of a stock because of its dividend yield and subsequent earnings growth, whereas the speculative return comes from the impact of changes in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. [...] over a long time span, the impact of investment returns trump the impact of speculative returns.

By paying close attention to the price you pay for a stock, you minimize your speculative risk, which helps maximize your total return.

The most basic ratio of all is the P/S ratio, which is the current price of the stock divided by sales per share. The nice thing about the P/S ratio is that sales are typically cleaner than reported earnings because companies that use accounting tricks usually seek to boost earnings.

The P/S ratio has one big flaw: Sales may be worth a little or a lot, depending on a company's profitability.

Although the P/S ratio might be useful if you're looking at a firm with highly variable earnings – because you can compare today's P/S with a historical P/S ratio – it's not something you want to rely on very much. In particular, don't compare companies in different industries on a price-to-sales basis, unless the two industries have very similar levels of profitability.

Another common valuation measure is price-to-book (P/B), which compares a stock's market value with the book value (also known as shareholder's equity or net worth) on the company's most recent balance sheet. The idea here is that future earnings or cash flows are ephemeral, and all we can really count on is the net value of a firm's tangible assets in the here-and-now.

When the market was dominated by capital-intensive firms that owned factories, land, rail track, and inventory – all of which had some objective tangible worth – it made sense to value firms based on their accounting book value. After all, not only would those hard assets have value in a liquidation, but also they were the source of many firms' cash flow. But now, many companies are creating wealth through intangible assets such as processes, brand names, and databases, most of which are not directly included in book value.

Another item to be wary of when using P/B to value stocks is goodwill, which can inflate book value to the point that even the most expensive firm looks like a value. When one company buys another, the difference between the target firm's tangible book value and the purchase price is called goodwill, and it's supposed to represent the value of all the intangible assets – smart employees, strong customer relationships, efficient internal processes – that made the target firm worth buying. Unfortunately, goodwill often represents little else but the desperation of the acquiring firm to buy the target before someone else did, because acquiring firms often overpay for target companies. Be highly skeptical of firms for which goodwill makes up a sizable portion of their book value.

A company that's trading at a lower P/E than its industry peers could be a good value, but remember that even firms in the same industry can have very different capital structures, risk levels, and growth rates, all of which affect the P/E ratio. All else equal, it makes sense to pay a higher P/E for a firm that's growing faster, has less debt, and has lower capital reinvestment needs.

In general, comparing a company's P/E with industry peers or with the market has some value, but these aren't approaches that you should rely on to make a final buy or sell decision. However, comparing a stock's current P/E with its historical P/E ratios can be useful, especially for stable firms that haven't undergone major shifts in their business. If you see a solid company that's growing at roughly the same rate with roughly the same business prospects as in the past, but it's trading at a lower P/E than its long-term average, you should start getting interested.

Because risk, growth, and capital needs are all fundamental determinants of a stock's P/E ratio, higher growth firms should have higher P/E ratios, higher risk firms should have lower P/E ratios, and firms with higher capital needs should have lower P/E ratios.

When you're looking at a P/E ratio, you must be sure that the E makes sense. If a firm has recently sold off a business or perhaps a stake in another firm, it's going to have an artificially inflated E, and thus a lower P/E. Because you don't want to value the firm based on one-time gains such as this, you need to strip out the proceeds from the sale before calculating the P/E.

Don't rely on any single valuation metric because no individual ratio tells the whole story. Apply a number of different valuation tools when you're assessing a stock.

http://books.danielhofstetter.com/the-five-rules-for-successful-stock-investing/

Wednesday 3 July 2013

Alternative to Discounted Cash Flow Method

What do you use if you don't want to or can't use the discounted cash flow (DCF) method of valuing a stock?  

There are other methods for valuing a stock (not valuing the company).  The most popular alternative uses various multiples to compare the price of one stock to a comparable stock.

The price earnings ratio (P/E) is the most popular multiple for these comparisons.

You can use the P/E formula to find the price based on comparable stocks.

For example, three stocks in a particular industry had an average P/E of say 18.5.  If another stock ABC in the same industry had earnings of $2.50 per share, you could calculate a stock price of $46.25 per share (= 2.5 x 18.5).  This is just an approximation, but it should put stock ABC on a comparable basis with the other three stocks in the same industry.



This strategy has several flaws.

1.  The P/E is not always the most reliable of value gauges.
2.  The process depends on the three comparables being priced correctly and there is no guarantee of that.
3.   Its biggest flaw is that the process tells you nothing of the future value of the company or the stock.

If you use this method, and many investors do, you will need to watch the stock more closely and continually measure it against comparables.  However, it does not require you to estimate anything or consider multiple variables, which is why it is so popular.

This method is best used for a quick decision on whether the stock is under-priced or over-priced.
Although you can arrive at a stock price based on the P/E formula, it is not nearly as accurate as the DCF method.



You can also use other key ratios in valuation.

These include the followings:
1.  Price/Book - Value market places on book value.
2.  Price/Sales - Value market places on sales.
3.  Price/Cash Flow - Value market places on cash flow.
4.  Dividend Yield - Shareholder yield from dividends.



So, which method should you use - DCF or multiples?

In the end, you will have to decide which method is for you.

There is no rule against using both.

Whether you calculate your own DCFs or use the estimates from others, reputable websites or analysts estimates, make sure you have the best guess available on the variables the formula needs.

Either way, make a conscious decision to buy a stock based on the valuation method of your choice and not a "feeling" for the stock.





Saturday 7 January 2012

Speculative-Growth Stocks - Is it Fairly Valued?

Valuation is tough for speculative-growth companies, and it's especially tough for an Internet company like Yahoo.

Many of these companies have no earnings, and even when they do, ordinary valuation methods such as price/earnings rations tend to go out the window.

One popular way to value Internet companies is to look at the price/sales ratio and compare them with similar companies.

At the end of 1999, Yahoo traded for more than 200 times sales.  That's more expensive than any of the other major Internet stocks, such as dBay EBAY (120 times sales), America Online AOL (30 times sales), or Amazon (22 times sales).

Even among the notoriously pricey Internet stocks, Yahoo is expensive - but you could make a case that its huge audience and consistent profitability make it worth a premium.


Comment:  The Internet bubble soon burst in 2000.

Friday 13 November 2009

Combining P/E and P/Sales to determine a stock's valuation

Stock Valuation - The Price to Earnings Ratio

In my previous article, I wrote about the Price to Sales Ratio, a very valuable tool in a value investor's toolbox. I now continue the Stock Valuation series with another valuable tool - The Price to Earnings Ratio. All of the tools in this series are valuable by themselves, but when combined together, they make the task of stock picking methodical and very profitable.

The Price to Earnings Ratio is also known as the Earnings Multiple or Price Multiple. Most people refer to the ratio simply as the "P/E".
The formula for calculating the P/E is simple: P/E Ratio = Share Price / Earnings per Share

For example, if a stock is trading at $22.00 per share, and trailing earnings is $1.15 per share, the P/E ratio is 19.13 (22.00/1.15).

Typically, the lower the P/E, the more attractive the stock is to a value investor. Just like the Price to Sales Ratio, the P/E is very useful for comparing multiple companies within the same industry.


Let's compare the P/E's for two companies:

Pear Computer:
Share Price: 54.27
Earnings per share: 5.72
P/E Ratio: 54.27 / 5.72 = 9.49

Fastway Computers:
Share Price: 38.12
Earnings per share: 1.96
P/E Ratio: 38.12 / 1.96 = 19.45

As you can see, Pear Computer has a much lower P/E than Fastway Computers.

The P/E is referred to as the "multiple", because it indicates how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. If a stock is trading at a multiple (P/E) of 15, that means that an investor is willing to pay $15.00 for every $1.00 of earnings. A high P/E is a warning sign that a stock may be over bought, which means it may be "hyped up" and valued too high.

Even though the P/E is a valuable tool, it is very important that you don't base the value of a stock on its P/E alone. The reason for this is, the earnings figure is based on the honesty of the company's accounting practices and is susceptible to manipulation. You should always use the Price to Sales Ratio, that I wrote about previously, in addition to the P/E to determine a stock's valuation.

Let's add in the Price to Sales Ratio to our two stocks and see how they compare (see my previous article for the Price to Sales calculation:

Pear Computer:
P/E = 9.49
Price to Sales = 1.46

Fastway Computers:
P/E = 19.45
Price to Sales = 3.15

By comparing the ratios of these two stocks, it is clear which one has the better value. Both the P/E and the Price to Sales are more than double for Fastway compared to Pear. When it comes to picking stocks for a portfolio of value stocks, Pear Computer is the clear winner.

http://www.xomba.com/stock_valuation_price_earnings_ratio

http://www.xomba.com/stock_valuation_price_sales_ratio