Showing posts with label inventory holding periods. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inventory holding periods. Show all posts

Tuesday 11 April 2017

Stock Turn or Inventory Turn

For example:

Annual turnover  $10 million
Annual cost of sales (60%)  $6 million
Stock value $1.5 million
Stock turn 4


This measures the number of times that total stock is used (turned over) in the course of a year.

The higher the stock turn the more efficiently the business is being run, though adequate safety margins must of course be maintained.

It is important that the terms are completely understood and that there are no abnormal factors.

Normally the definition of stock includes all finished goods, work in progress and raw materials.

The stock value will usually be taken from the closing Balance Sheet but you need to consider if it is a typical figure.

If the business is seasonal, such as a manufacturing of fireworks, it may not be.  

A better result may be obtained if the average of several stock figures throughout the year can be used.

Thursday 3 April 2014

Retailers Accounting 101 (A Conceptual Overview)

Investing in Retail:  Understanding the Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)

One of the best ways to distinguish excellent retailers from average or below average ones is to look at their cash conversion cycles.

The CCC tells us how quickly a firm sells its goods (inventory), how fast it collects payments for the goods (receivables), and how long it can hold on to the goods itself before it has to pay suppliers (payables).

Naturally, a retailer wants to sell its products as fast as possible (high inventory turns), collect payments from customers as fast as possible (high receivables turns), but pay suppliers as slowly as possible (low payables turns).

The best case scenario for a retailer is to sell its goods and collect from customers before it even has to pay the supplier.

Wal-mart is one of the best in the business at this:  70% of its sales are rung up and paid for before the firm even pays its suppliers.


COMPONENTS OF CCC

INVENTORY TURNS
Looking at the components of a retailer's cash cycle tells us a great deal.

A retailer with increasing days in inventory (and decreasing inventory turns) is likely stocking its shelves with merchandise that is out of favour.

This leads to excess inventory, clearance sales, and usually declining sales and stock prices.


RECEIVABLES TURNS
Days in receivables is the least important part of the CCC for retailers because most stores either collect cash directly from customers at the time of the sale or sell off their credit card receivables to banks and other finance companies for a price.

Retailers don't really control this part of the cycle too much.

However, some stores, have brought attention to the receivables line because they've opted to offer customers credit and manage the receivables themselves.  

The credit card business is a profitable way to make a buck, but it is also very complicated, and it is a completely different business from retail.

Be wary of retailers that try to boost profits by taking on risk in their credit card business because it is generally not something they  are good at.


PAYABLES TURNS
If days in inventory and days in receivables illustrate how well a retailer interacts with customers, days payable outstanding shows how well a retailer negotiates with suppliers.

It is also a great gauge for the strength of a retailer.

Wide-moat retailers such as Wal-Mart, Home Depot, and Walgreen optimize credit terms with suppliers because they are one of the few (if not the only) games in town.

The fortunes of many consumer product firms depend on sales to Wal-Mart, so the king of retail has a huge advantage when ordering inventory:  It can push for low prices and extended payment terms.

Extending payment terms to their suppliers allow the retailers to hold on to its cash longer and to reduce short-term borrowing needs; effectively increasing the retailers' operating cash flows .



Additional Notes:
In retail and consumer services, most economic moats for the sector are extremely narrow, if they exist at all.

Therefore, not surprisingly, you don't find a ton of great long-term stock ideas in retail and consumer services.

The only way a retailer can earn a wide economic moat is by doing something that keeps consumers shopping at its stores rather than at competitors'.

It can do this by offering unique products or low prices.

Although you can do well buying high quality specialty and clothing retailers when the industry sees one of its periodic sell-offs, very few of these kinds of firms make great long-term holdings.


Wednesday 10 March 2010

How to Analyze Receivables & Inventory


How to Analyze Receivables & Inventory

Thu, Feb 11, 2010

How to Perform Inventory and Receivables Anlaysis

I wanted to go through a quick exercise that I perform during a stock analysis.
A recent stock that has come up in the Graham stock screener and forum is CONN. Conn’s Inc is a specialty retailer of home appliances such as fridges, freezers, washers, dryers and consumer electronics such as TV’s, cameras, computers etc. Think Best Buy.
The company just released their results for their 2009 4th quarter results and the stock took a 17%hit. The actual financial statements hasn’t been released but I wanted to show how these things are foreseeable by analyzing the inventory and accounts receivables. This has also been discussed in the balance sheet analysis.

Sales, Inventory and Receivables Analysis

For any company that sells products, a careful look at the correlation between sales, accounts receivables and inventories is crucial. In the above example, I’ve only compared the 3rd quarter statements but you can see that CONN does not know how to manage their assets.
From what I see, the problem began to surface in 2006 where revenue only increased 0.23% while accounts receivables increased 31% and inventory went up 8%. Before 2006, the company was able to grow revenues at a faster rate than accounts receivables and inventory but from 2006 onwards, the correlation worsened until 2008 where you can immediately see that things were bound to fall apart.
In 2008, revenues declined 3% compared to the previous comparable period while accounts receivables increased by 116% and inventories up 9%.
The same thing happened in 2009 where accounts receivables increased another 102%! The only thing waiting for CONN is trouble, and it finally surfaced in their latest quarter. It goes to show that Wall Street does not perform the proper analysis required.
Here is a graphical view of the same thing.
Whenever you see either accounts receivables of inventory increase quicker than sales, watch out. But for inventory, you need to dig deeper.
When raw materials component of inventories is advancing much  more rapidly than the work-in-progress and finished goods components, this means that the company is receiving many new orders and an inventory buildup is necessary. So the company will simultaneously ship products from its finished goods inventory while ordering raw materials in larger amounts.
But in the case of CONN, the company only sells the items so 100% of inventory is finished goods so any excessive increase is a big red warning sign.

Dirt Cheap or Value Trap

All valuations point to a cheap company. Looks like the intrinsic value is roughly $15-$16.
If I had come across CONN when I first started investing, I’m pretty sure I would have bought it. At today’s price of $4.61 it is definitely cheap and tempting but until there are signs that management is able to get a handle on inventory and accounts receivables, it is best to leave it alone.
Sure the stock can go up, but it doesn’t hide the fact that the company is struggling. CONN has also increased their accounts payables and taken on huge amounts of long term debt.
If I was to buy the stock now, I would only be speculating and hoping that things improve.

Friday 24 April 2009

Capital-intensive and Capital-hungry companies

CAPITAL SUFFICIENCY

Capital-hungry companies are sometimes hard to detect, but there are a few obvious signs.

Companies in capital-intensive industries, such as manufacturing, transportation, or telecommunications, are likely suspects.

Here are a few indicators.

1. Share buybacks

The number of shares outstanding can be a real simple indicator of a capital hungry company. A company using cash to retire shares - if acting sensibly - is telling you that it generates more capital than it needs. On the other hand, if you look at a company like IBM, ROE has grown substantially, and massive share buybacks are a major reason.

Warning! : When evaluating share buybacks, make sure to look at actual shares outstanding. Relying on company news releases alone can be misleading. Companies also buy back shares to support employee incentive programs or to accumulate shares for an acquisition. Such repurchases may be okay but aren't the kind of repurchases that increase return on equity for remaining owners. (Comment: to take a look at HaiO share buyback.)

2. Cash flow ratio

Is cash flow from operations enough to meet investing requirements (capital assets being the main form of investment) and financing requirements (in this case, the repayment of debt)?

If not, it's back to the capital markets. This figure is pretty elusive unless you have - and study - statements of cash flow.

3. Lengthening asset cycles

If accounts receivable collection periods and inventory holding periods are lengthening (number of days' sales in accounts receivable and inventory), that forewarns the need for more capital.

4. Working capital

A company requiring steady increases in workng capital to support sales requires, naturally, capital. Working capital is capital.