Carlsberg

 

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd

CARLSBG Quarter Report History

No.	Financial		Revenue		Profit Before		Net Profit		EPS	DPS	NTA
	Quarter		(RM,000)		Tax (RM,000)		(RM,000)		(Cent)	(Cent)	(RM)	PBTM
2	30/06/2014		356,021		52,526		40,041		13.1	5	0.69	14.8%
1	31/03/2014		445,936		69,233		52,332		17.12	0	1.1	15.5%
4	31/12/2013		387,738		76,673		64,043		20.95	56	0.93	19.8%
3	30/09/2013		352,116		51,841		38,437		12.57	0	0.8	14.7%
2	30/06/2013		344,529		41,112		30,913		10.11	5	0.64	11.9%
1	31/03/2013		470,766		66,803		50,534		16.53	0	1.17	14.2%
4	31/12/2012		336,494		49,165		40,470		13.24	58	1	14.6%
3	30/09/2012		410,844		79,451		61,057		19.97	0	0.92	19.3%
2	30/06/2012		383,395		49,255		37,744		12.34	0.05	0.72	12.8%
1	31/03/2012		454,047		67,780		52,362		17.13	0	1.1	14.9%
4	31/12/2011		334,968		46,221		37,349		12.22	67.5	2.06	13.8%
3	30/09/2011		401,661		68,906		48,848		15.98	0	1.98	17.2%

Consumer Stocks on my radar screen

Carlsberg
Guinness
Nestle
Dutch Lady
Hup Seng Industries
Padini
Zhulian


Carlsberg

ROE 64.08%
EPS CAGR 5 Yrs 19.5%
DY High 5.2% - Low 3.6%
D/E 0.02
Revenues Growing last 3 Years
Earnings Growing last 3 Years
LFY Revenues 1584.78 m
LFY Earnings 191.63 m
Gross Margin 36.26%
Market Cap RM  4353.85 m
Shares (m) 305.75
Per Share price RM  14.24
P/E 22.7
DCA Strong


Guinness

ROE 54.62%
EPS CAGR 5 Yrs 13%
DY High 7.1% - Low 4.1%
D/E 0.53
Revenues Growing last 3 Years
Earnings Growing last 3 Years
LFY Revenues  1623.69 m
LFY Earnings 207.40 m
Gross Margin 33.70%
Market Cap  RM 5437.76 m
Shares (m) 302.10
Per Share price RM 18.00
P/E  26.2
DCA Strong


Nestle

ROE 67.27%
EPS CAGR 5 Yrs 11.6%
DY High 4.0% - Low 3.1%
D/E 0.13
Revenues Growing last 3 Years
Earnings Growing last 3 Years
LFY Revenues 4556.42  m
LFY Earnings  505.35 m
Gross Margin 34.09%
Market Cap  RM 14,252.91 m
Shares (m)  234.50
Per Share price RM  60.78
P/E 28.2
DCA Strong


Dutch Lady

ROE 57.08%
EPS CAGR 5 Yrs 21.2%
DY High 6.3% - Low 3.6%
D/E 0.00
Revenues Growing last 3 Years
Earnings Growing last 3 Years
LFY Revenues  882.18 m
LFY Earnings 123.38  m
Gross Margin 58.18%
Market Cap  RM 3101.44 m
Shares (m)  64
Per Share price RM  48.46
P/E 25.1
DCA Strong


Hup Seng Industries

ROE 21.24%
EPS CAGR 5 Yrs 46.9%
DY High 11.0% - Low 7.3%
D/E 0.00
Revenues Growing last 3 Years
Earnings Growing last 3 Years
LFY Revenues 247.82  m
LFY Earnings 32.54  m
Gross Margin 35.47%
Market Cap RM  414.00 m
Shares (m)  120.00
Per Share price RM  3.45
P/E  12.7


Padini

ROE 28.23%
EPS CAGR 5 Yrs 25%
DY High 4.9% - Low 2.9%
D/E 0.15
Revenues Growing last 3 Years
Earnings Growing last 3 Years
LFY Revenues  723.41 m
LFY Earnings  96.00 m
Gross Margin 48.19%
Market Cap RM 1236.87 m
Shares (m) 657.91
Per Share price RM 1.88
P/E 12.9


Zhulian

ROE 25.91%
EPS CAGR 5 Yrs 14.7%
DY High 8.7% - Low 5.4%
D/E 0.00
Revenues Growing last 3 Years
Earnings Growing last 3 Years
LFY Revenues  450.43 m
LFY Earnings 117.09  m
Gross Margin 72.51%
Market Cap RM 1334.00 m
Shares (m) 460.00
Per Share price RM  2.90
P/E 11.4


DCA = durable competitive advantage

Carlsberg

From Year 1996 to Year 2007

Carlsberg					Period (Yrs)	11
	Dec-96		Dec-07		Change	CAGR
	millions		millions
Equity	329.65		471.38		42.99%	3.30%
LT Assets	169.87		171.92		1.21%	0.11%
C. Assets	320		418.61		30.82%	2.47%
LT Liabilities	12.03		19.65		63.34%	4.56%
C. Liabilities	148.19		99.5		-32.86%	-3.56%
Sales	672.24		897.53		33.51%	2.66%
Earnings	91.69		78.49		-14.40%	-1.40%
Interest exp.	0		0		#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Market cap	1271.6		1259.680		-0.94%	-0.09%
D/E ratio	0		0.000		#DIV/0!
ROE	27.81%		16.65%		-40.13%
P/E	13.87		16.05
P/BV	3.86		2.67
Dividends
DPO ratio	98.62%
DY range	HIGH		LOW
	6.50%		5.50%

From Year 2007 to Year 2011

Carlsberg					Period (Yrs)	4
	Dec-07		Dec-11		Change	CAGR
	millions		millions
Equity	471.38		627.13		33.04%	7.40%
LT Assets	171.92		591.32		243.95%	36.18%
C. Assets	418.61		365.84		-12.61%	-3.31%
LT Liabilities	19.65		76		286.77%	40.24%
C. Liabilities	99.5		250.11		151.37%	25.91%
Sales	897.53		1489.36		65.94%	13.50%
Earnings	78.49		166.16		111.70%	20.62%
Interest exp.	0		4.39		#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Market cap	1259.680		3283.730		160.68%	27.07%
D/E ratio	0.000		0.040		#DIV/0!
ROE	16.65%		26.50%		59.12%
P/E	16.05		19.76
P/BV	2.67		5.24
Dividends
DPO ratio	90.00%
DY range	HIGH		LOW
	5.60%		4.00%

Income Statement

Year	Revenue		Earnings		Net Margin		Interest Exp
2011	1489.36		166.16		11.2%		4.3
2010	1368.16		133.24		9.7%		4.59
2009	1045.48		76.14		7.3%		0.88
2008	960.21		76.15		7.9%		0
2007	897.53		78.49		8.7%		0
2006	929.74		85.9		9.2%		0
2005	867.23		88.68		10.2%		0

Investor's Checklist: Consumer Services

Most consumer services concepts fail in the long run, so any investment in a company in the speculative or aggressive growth stage of the business life cycle needs to be monitored more closely than the average stock investment.

Beware of stocks that have already priced in lofty growth expectations.  You can make money if you get in early enough, but you can also lose your shirt on the stock's rapid downslide.

The sector is rife with low switching costs.  Companies that establish store loyalty or store dependence are very attractive.  Tiffany's is a good example; it faces limited competition in the retail jewelery market.

Make sure to compare inventory and payables turns to determine which retailers are superior operators.  Companies that know what their customers want and how to exploit their negotiating power are more likely to make solid bets in the sector.

Keep an eye on those off-balance sheet obligations.   Many retailers have little or no debt on the books, but their overall financial health might not be that good.

Look for a buying opportunity when a solid company releases poor monthly or quarterly sales numbers.  Many investors overreact to one month's worth of bad same-store sales results, and the reason might just be bad weather or an overly difficult comparison to the prior-year period.  Focus on the fundamentals of the business and not the emotion of the stock.

Companies also tend to move in tandem when news comes out about the economy.  Look for a chance to pick up shares of a great retailer when the entire sector falls - keep that watch list handy.  


Ref:  The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey


Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Investor's Checklist: Consumer Goods

Find companies that enjoy the cost advantages of manufacturing on a larger scale than most other competitors.  One related issue is whether the firm holds dominant market share in its categories.

Look for the firms that consistently launch successful new products - all the better if the firm is first to market with these innovations.

Check to see if the company is supporting its brand with consistent advertising.  If the firm constantly promotes its products with sale prices, it's depleting brand equity and just milking the brand for shorter-term gain.

Examine how well the firm is handling operating costs.  Occasional restructuring can help squeeze out efficiency gains and lower costs, but if the firm is regularly incurring restructuring costs and relying solely on this cost-cutting tactic to boost its business, tread carefully.

Because these mature firms generate so much free cash flow, it's important to make sure management is using it wisely.  How much of the cash is turned over to shareholders in the form of dividends or share repurchase agreements?

Keep in mind that investors may bid up a consumer goods stock during economic downturns, making the shares pricey relative to its fair value.  Look for buying opportunities when shares trade with a 20 percent to 30 percent margin of safety.  

Ref:  The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey



Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Carlsberg versus Dutch Lady (A Comparative Study)

	7.4.2012		3.4.2012
	Carlsberg		Dutch Lady
Income Statement
	31/12/2011		31/12/2011
	RM (m)		RM (m)
Revenue	1,489.36		810.65
COGS			505.53
Gross Profit			304.47
Operating Profit	216.036		139.372
Financing costs	-4.385		-0.919
PBT	220.374		141.553
PAT	167.38		108.082
EPS (basic) sen	54.35		168.88
EPS (diluted) sen
Balance Sheet
NCA	591.354		74.048
CA	369.504		324.465
Total Assets	960.858		398.513
Total Equity	631.049		259.154
NCL	76.033		4.051
CL	253.776		135.308
Total Liabilities	329.809		139.359
Total Eq + Liab	960.858		398.513
Net assets per share	2.060		4.05
Cash & Eq	72.196		193.143
LT Borrowings	0		0
ST Borrowings	22.251		0
Net Cash	49.945		193.143
Inventories	62.538		93.448
Trade receivables	231.108		36.713
Trade payables	214.185		121.831
Quick Ratio	1.21		1.71
Current Ratio	1.46		2.40
Cash flow statement
PBT	220.374		141.553
OPBCWC	253.167
Cash from Operations	197.728		188.290
Net CFO	154.537		161.940
CFI	-21.577		-7.135
CFF	-162.735		-47.319
Capex	-27.701		-10.882
FCF	126.836		151.058
Dividends paid	-127.268		-46.400
DPS (sen)	41.63		72.5
No of ord shares (m)
basic	305.748		64
diluted
Financial Ratios
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%		37.56%
Net Profit Margin	11.24%		13.33%
Asset Turnover	1.55		2.03
Financial Leverage	1.52		1.54
ROA	17.42%		27.12%
ROC	28.80%		163.73%
ROE	26.52%		41.71%
Valuation	7.4.2012		3.4.2012
Price	10.74		36
Market cap (m)	3283.73		2304.00
P/E	19.62		21.32
P/BV	5.20		8.89
P/FCF	25.89		15.25
P/Div	25.80		49.66
DPO ratio	0.76		0.43
EY	5.10%		4.69%
FCF/P	3.86%		6.56%
DY	3.88%		2.01%
DIO   (Days)	#DIV/0!		67
DSO  (Days)	57		17
DPO  (Days)	#DIV/0!		88
CCC   (Days)	#DIV/0!		-4

Carlsberg

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date		Financial Yr. End		Qtr	Period End		Revenue RM '000		Profit/Lost RM'000		EPS		Amended
15-Nov-11		31-Dec-11		3	30-Sep-11		401,661		48,986		15.98		-
25-Aug-11		31-Dec-11		2	30-Jun-11		345,512		31,242		10.15		-
11-May-11		31-Dec-11		1	31-Mar-11		407,215		49,381		16.01		-
24-Feb-11		31-Dec-10		4	31-Dec-10		326,057		30,754		9.97		-

Share Price Performance    High   Low Prices 1 Month 7.300   (18-Nov-11) 6.800   (02-Nov-11)   Prices 3 Months 7.300   (18-Nov-11) 6.200   (26-Sep-11) Prices 12 Months 8.040   (08-Apr-11) 5.780   (01-Dec-10) Volume 12 Months 6,929   (28-Feb-11) 53   (21-Oct-11)

Guinness Anchor is in net-cash position

Monday October 10, 2011

Guinness Anchor is in net-cash position, is seeking ways to reward shareholders

By TEE LIN SAY
linsay@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Guinness Anchor Bhd (GAB) shareholders may be in for a reward as the company is in a net-cash position as of June 30, 2011, analysts said. The company has a net cash per share of 60 sen.

“There has been no firm sign of a capital repayment from the company. However, during their last briefing, there were indications that they were looking at ways to reward shareholders,” said one consumer analyst who attended the company's fourth-quarter results briefing.

A research head agreed that the company was considering such a payout. “We are not sure of the quantum but timing-wise, it will probably happen towards the end of its financial year.”

Ireland: ‘Our cash position varies depending on working capital and capex requirements.’

It is common for cash-rich brewers to surprise shareholders with capital repayments. Last year, Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd rewarded shareholders with a dividend payment of 58 sen after it acquired Carlsberg Singapore Pte Ltd for RM370mil in the fourth quarter 2009.

Carlsberg's special dividend of 58 sen was an improvement from 23 sen in 2009.

With the new contribution from Singapore, Carlsberg's revenue grew 30.9% to RM1.37bil in the financial year ended Dec 31, 2010 while profit after tax increased 74.8% to RM134.1mil.

“Guinness has for several years maintained an informal dividend policy of 85% to 90% of our net profit. We do not expect this policy to change in the near future. Our cash position varies depending on working capital and capex requirements at different times of the year,” GAB managing director Charles Ireland told StarBiz.

GAB has declared total dividends of 54 sen for the year ended June 30, 2011. In its fourth-quarter results briefing in August, it declared a final dividend of 44 sen, bringing total dividends to 54 sen per share for FY11. This is an increase of nine sen compared with FY10. The 54 sen net dividend represents about 90% dividend payout and net yield of 5%.

A spokesman for Carlsberg said that Carlsberg Breweries AS, as a majority shareholder of Carlsberg Malaysia, had supported the proposal to distribute net dividends of between 50% and 70% of annual profits, subject to funding requirements and cash availability for the current financial period to 2013.

“The final special dividend for 2010 was much higher than the undertaking given. This was due to the positive cashflow and after considering Carlsberg Malaysia's funding requirements.” the spokesman said.

Carlsberg declared a five sen gross dividend for the second quarter to June 30, 2011. This was lower than the 7.5 sen it had paid in the previous corresponding period. As of Dec 30, 2010, Carlsberg had net cash per share of 16 sen. Analysts estimated the company had a net cash per share of 11 sen for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2011.

Meanwhile, the consumer analyst maintains her forecasts on GAB on an unchanged dividend payout ratio of 90% per year, translating into attractive yields of 5% to 6%.

A CIMB analyst said GAB's capex this year was expected to double from the historical RM30mil to RM40mil range as it planned to install a new keg at its brewery and invest in new IT infrastructure.

“We have already projected RM60mil capex for this year. Despite the higher capital expenditure, GAB's dividend payout will remain in the range of 85% to 90%,” she said.

For the fourth quarter ended June 30, 2011, GAB's revenue increased 12.97% to RM348.76mil while net profit dropped 18.04% to RM29.08mil. For the entire year, revenue increased 9.57% to RM1.49bil while net profit increased 18.79% to RM181.38mil. GAB had cash and cash equivalents of RM179.78mil.

GAB continues to retain its top position in the malt liquor market (MLM) with a 59% market share.

An analyst said the MLM growth forecast was maintained at 5% to 6% per year, buoyed by more brewer organised events and the special UEFA European Cup 2012.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/10/10/business/9640227&sec=business

Carlsberg 4Q net profit up 51.8% to RM30.49m

Carlsberg 4Q net profit up 51.8% to RM30.49m
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 24 February 2011 20:13


KUALA LUMPUR: CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BHD []’s net profit rose 51.8% to RM30.49 million in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 from RM20.09 million a year ago, driven by higher export and contract manufacturing sales.

It said on Thursday, Feb 24 revenue rose to RM326.06 million from RM300.40 million in 2009. Earnings per share were 9.97 sen while net asset per share was RM1.93. It announced a final gross dividend of 7.5 sen per and special gross dividend of 43 sen share.

For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2010 Carlsberg's net profit surged to RM133.24 million from RM76.14 million in 2009, on the back of revenue RM1.37 billion in FY10 from RM1.05 billion in FY09.

Carlsberg said the increased in profit was due to

• higher domestic sales, 
• the synergies arising from the acquisition of Carlsberg Singapore Pte Ltd and 
• the good performance in the super premium segment through its subsidiary Luen Heng F&B Sdn Bhd.

On its current year prospects, Carlsberg said the move by the government not to raise excise duties for beer and stout products in Budget 2011 was a clear indication that the government was sensitive to the industry and the public as Malaysia was already the second highest excise duty paying country in the world after Norway.

"In line with this, we expect the domestic beer market to grow moderately in 2011," it said.

OSK Research: Carlsberg to fare well in 2011

OSK Research: Carlsberg to fare well in 2011
Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 14 January 2011 08:45

KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said Carlsberg Malaysia Bhd will fare well in 2011 although intense competition will persist vis-à-vis its rival, Guinness Anchor.

It said on Friday, Jan 14 the upbeat macro factors create favourable conditions for market growth this year.

“Upgrading our earnings estimates for 2011 and going forward, we derive a higher target price for Carlsberg of RM7.20 from RM6.50 previously.

“The stock is maintained a BUY. We see Carlsberg paying a higher gross dividend of 35 sen per share versus 27.5 sen previously, translating into a gross yield of 5.4% for FY11,” it said.

Carlsberg

Date announced 11-Nov-10
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK  CARLSBG 
C0DE  2836 

Price $ 5.85
Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 14.56 Curr. DY 3.09%
LFY Div 18.10 DPO ratio 73%
ROE 21.4% PBT Margin 14.2% PAT Margin 10.3%

Rec. qRev 329492 q-q % chg -1% y-y% chq 36%
Rec qPbt 46825 q-q % chg 15% y-y% chq 60%
Rec. qEps 11.15 q-q % chg 11% y-y% chq 57%
ttm-Eps 40.18 q-q % chg 11% y-y% chq 87%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 14.00 Avg. L PE 12.00
Forecast High Pr 7.18 Forecast Low Pr 4.69 Recent Severe Low Pr 4.69
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 53% Downside 47%
One Year Appreciation Potential 5% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 11%

CPE/SPE 1.12 P/NTA 3.11 NTA 1.88 SPE 13.00 Rational Pr 5.22



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Next up: Tax hike for brewers?

Written by Insider Asia
Friday, 08 October 2010 12:16

Now that two of the three so-called “sin sectors”, cigarettes and gaming, have seen taxes raised this year, expectations are high that the brewers are next in line.

Earlier in June 2010, gaming companies saw pool-betting duty raised from 6% to 8%. The latest round of tax increase for cigarette manufacturers, of three sen per stick, was announced earlier this week ahead of Budget 2011, which is to be presented on Oct 15.

Of the three sectors, cigarette manufacturers have been the worst affected, having been slapped with tax hikes every year for the past eight years. By comparison, brewers are “luckier” — they have been spared of any tax increase since 2005.

Back then, the government raised excise duty by 23% to RM7.40 per litre and introduced a new 15% Ad Valorem duty payment on the ex-brewery price for beer products. But at the same time, it also reduced sales tax to 5% of the ex-factory invoice price on all products sold. The net tax increase was thought to be around 8%-9%.

As such, many expect the time is ripe for fresh tax hikes — by as much as 10% — in Budget 2011. The government has hinted as much.
On the other hand, brewers contend that beer taxes in the country are already one of the highest in the world, second only to Norway. Government tax payments amounted to over 48% of Carlsberg Brewery’s revenue last year.

Like the cigarette industry, it is feared that further tax hikes — and the resulting higher selling prices — will fuel smuggling. Smuggled or illicit beer is estimated to make up roughly 20% of the local beer market. Volume sales of the duty-paid malt liquor market dipped in 2005-2006 after the last round of tax hike before recovering in 2007-2008. Industry volume sales are estimated to have declined by roughly 2% in 2009, impacted by the global downturn, but are expected to grow in the single digit this year.

Higher taxes and prices could send volume sales growth back into negative territory — affecting the earnings of the two local breweries, Guinness Anchor and Carlsberg.

Guinness fared better over past few years
Of the two, Guinness appears to have weathered the intensely competitive operating environment better. The company charted steady growth in sales and profits over the past decade, thanks, in part, to its success in gaining a steadily larger slice of the domestic market. At present, its market share is estimated at roughly 57%, up from about 45% back in 2001.

Sales grew at a compounded rate of more than 8% annually, from RM670 million in FYJune01 to RM1.36 billion in FY10. Over the same period, net profit increased at an even faster pace of   11.2% per annum, from RM58.7 million to RM152.7 million in the latest financial year.

By comparison, Carlsberg’s earnings growth has been patchier. Whilst sales increased at a compounded annual rate of about 2.3% between 2000 and 2009, net profit dipped to RM75.9 million last year from RM110 million in 2000. Indeed, Guinness’ shares had outperformed Carlsberg over the past five years. Shares of Guinness are currently trading at RM8.46, compared to RM5.75 at the start of 2006 whilst Carlsberg’s shares are hovering around the same levels as they were five years ago.

Expansion boost for Carlsberg
Nonetheless, Carlsberg’s prospects appear to be looking up. The company has been on an expansion trail, investing in Luen Heng F&B in November 2008 and Carlsberg Singapore in October 2009. The acquisitions have widened both its product range and market base — and appear to be paying dividends.

Carlsberg reported strong earnings in 1H10, boosted by contributions from Carlsberg Singapore. The latter accounted for RM28.7 million of its pre-tax earnings of RM69 million in the first six months of the year, and is well on track to meet the company’s estimated net profit contribution of RM37 million for the full year. At this pace, we estimate Carlsberg’s 2010 net profits to be sharply higher from last year’s RM75.9 million. In addition to operational synergies, the expansion in Carlsberg’s customer base is likely to temper the negative impact of a tax hike in the domestic market.

Carlsberg’s new ventures — Carlsberg Singapore was acquired for RM370 million — have come at the expense of dividends. The company lowered its dividend payout in 2008-2009 to 35% and 51% of profits, respectively, compared with the average payout of 108% in the preceding six years. The company has net debt of RM37.7 million at end-June 2010.

Assuming the same 51% profit payout this year, dividends will total 30 sen per share. That translates into a net yield of 4.3% at the current share price of RM5.20.

Guinness pays higher dividends
Guinness, on the other hand, remains focused primarily on the domestic market. With lower capital expenditure — estimated at roughly RM50 million in the current financial year — dividend payout has stayed high, averaging at some 85% of net profits in the past five years.

The stock will trade ex-entitlement for a final tax-exempt dividend of 35 sen per share on Nov 11.

Assuming dividends totalling 45 sen per share — the same as that for FY10 — in the current year, shareholders will earn a net yield of 5.3% at the prevailing share price of RM8.46.

Guinness is sitting on net cash totalling almost RM150 million at end-June 2010. — InsiderAsia


Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, October 8, 2010.

Carlsberg Financial Data (1998 to 2007)

No growth in net dividend.

What about its share price over the same period?

Carlsberg M’sia expects S’pore ops to contribute 30% to net profit in 2010

Carlsberg M’sia expects S’pore ops to contribute 30% to net profit in 2010

Tags: Carlsberg Malaysia | Carlsberg Singapore | CBMB

Written by Surin Murugiah
Thursday, 30 July 2009 11:16

SHAH ALAM: CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BHD [ CARLSBG 4.410 -0.050 (-1.121%) ] (CBMB) expects Carlsberg Singapore Pte Ltd (CSPL) to contribute about 30% to its net profit in the financial year ending Dec 31, 2010 pursuant to its proposal to acquire the latter.

CBMB also expects to resume its dividend payout at previous levels after surprising the market with a lower dividend early this year.

It paid out a total of 12.5 sen in dividends last year, against 35 sen in each of its previous three financial years.

CBMB managing director Soren Holm Jensen said CSPL was already a successful and profitable entity, having posted a revenue of S$78 million and a net profit of S$10 million in 2008.

“A key binding factor is the significant sourcing and operational synergy that would create RM22 million cost savings. The total incremental net profit from the acquisition, excluding funding cost, is RM46 million,” he said.

“The main synergies are that it would shift sourcing back to Carlsberg Malaysia; advertising and promotions would enjoy double tax deduction, as well as the operational synergies,” he said at media briefing on its proposed acquisition of CSPL.

CBMB announced on Tuesday it had entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with its Denmark-based parent company Carlsberg Breweries AS (Carlsberg) to acquire the latter’s Singapore operations held by CSPL for RM370 million cash.

Among the salient features of the MoU to be included in the sales and purchase agreement are 20 years of territorial rights; sourcing rights with significant synergies; profit guarantee for CSPL for the financial years 2009 and 2010; and Carlsberg to support any board proposal to declare a dividend of between 50% and 70% of CBMB’s distributable profit for a duration of five years.

Jensen said preliminary estimates showed CBMB’s net profit for 2010 to increase to RM113 million from RM76 million in 2008, on the assumption that the proposal to acquire CSPL was approved by minority shareholders.

“The estimates need further verification and is subject to a full due diligence and final evaluation by an independent adviser,” he said.

Jensen said CBMB would likely complete the acquisition without borrowing as it had RM260 million cash and would be able to accumulate sufficient cash by year-end.

“But we might require short-term borrowings for working capital. In any event, we will return to a net cash level in a short period,” he said,

On CSPL, Jensen said it held a 21% market share in Singapore and that the Carlsberg brand ranked second in the republic after the locally brewed Tiger beer.

“The brand is positioned in the upper mainstream segment and has been steadily gaining share in the segment since the 1990s. It also has a stronghold in coffee shops and hawker centres, supported by strong branding in both on- and off-trade,” he said.

He said Singapore was an attractive beer market, with a compound annual growth rate of 4% from 2000 to 2008, from 642,000 hectolitres (HL) to 858,000HL.

Jensen said CBMB also viewed its proposed acquisition of CSPL as an added advantage as it would give the brewer a better understanding of new Tiger beer products, which are generally launched in Singapore first before Malaysia.

For the three months ended March 31, CBMB posted a 19% year-on-year lower net profit of RM21.4 million on the back of a marginally higher revenue of RM289.8 million.

As at end-March, CBMB had cash and cash equivalents of RM231.7 million while its trade receivables stood at RM140.5 million. Total liabilities were RM123.6 million.

CBMB’s brands include Tuborg, SKOL Beer, Danish Royal Stout, Tetley’s English Ale, Jolly Shandy and Nutrimalt.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, July 30, 2009.