Showing posts with label impressive headlines. Show all posts
Showing posts with label impressive headlines. Show all posts

Friday 13 November 2009

Green Packet - behind the headline figures

Green Packet sets ambitious profit target
By Goh Thean EuPublished: 2009/09/24

GREEN Packet Bhd (0082), a telecommunications and broadband service provider, has set a net profit target of RM1 billion for 2013, driven by a maturing broadband and solutions business.

The company posted a net loss of RM54.98 million for the financial year ended December 31 2008.

"It's an ambitious goal. That's why we are really working hard on that. We believe both our business pillars of solutions and service provider will grow. By then, we will have more than one million subscribers on broadband space," group managing director Puan Chan Cheong told Business Times in an interview.

The company expects to sign up 200,000 subscribers by year-end, from 35,000 in the first quarter of 2009.
"By end of the third quarter, we should have more than 100,000 subscribers. We believe that we can sign up over 30,000 subscribers per month for the final quarter," he said.

Green Packet expects revenue to increase more than threefold to RM300 million this year, from RM88.43 million in 2008.

"Our first-half 2009 revenue was already 11 per cent more than what we had in the entire 2008. We expect the momentum growth to be bigger in the second half and we believe we can comfortably achieve RM300 million this year and RM1 billion two years later," he said.

The company offers broadband services to homes and offices using the WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) technology.

To achieve its subscriber target, the company would need to expand its broadband coverage area, so that more people will have the opportunity to subscribe it.

"In terms of sites, we are also on track to hit 700 sites, or 2,100 base stations by year-end," he said.

Over the next two years, the company will be aggressively expanding its coverage and acquiring broadband customers. When its subscriber base hits the critical mass, it is expected to launch its new service - mobile voice.

"We are looking to launch mobile voice service in 2011. We can do it by ourselves, but initially, we will be looking at domestic roaming. On areas we don't have coverage, then we will fall back to existing operator's network," said Puan, who expects to sign up more than two million mobile voice customers by 2013.

It also develops WiMAX customer-premises equipment (CPE), such as the WiMAX modems. For the first half, it has delivered over 150,000 WiMAX CPEs to 35 operators worldwide.

"The estimation for WiMAX product shipment world is going to be about 1.6 million to 1.7 million this year. We aim to capture 20 per cent of the world's market shipment, or to ship some 350,000 units of CPEs this year," he said.

Besides developing CPEs and offering broadband services, it also develops telecommunications software - such as its InTouch connection management software - for operators.

The InTouch connection management solution, allows the user to integrate multiple wireless network.

Developing the solutions pillar is critical for Green Packet's bottomline growth, as it commands higher margins than some of its other businesses and it helps the company to strike a balance.

"Moving forward, we see half of our revenue coming from our service provider (WiMAX broadband) business and the other half from solutions.

"In terms of topline for our solution business, 30 per cent will come from software and 70 per cent will come from CPEs. However, for bottomline, software will contribute 50 per cent of the profit for the solution business," he said

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/gpkt21/Article/index_html


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Green Packet: RM500m more needed to widen 4G coverage
By Zuraimi AbdullahPublished: 2009/11/13



GREEN Packet Bhd (0082), which announced its third quarter results yesterday, will need up to RM500 million in capital expenditure (capex) in the next 12-18 months to increase its 4G Wimax coverage nationwide to 65 per cent.

This does not include a RM155 million capex it plans to spend first over the next three quarters to raise the high-speed broadband service coverage to 45 per cent.

Green Packet managing director C.C. Puan said it had so far invested RM337 million to roll out the 4G service.

The company's 4G service, known as P1 and run by subsidiary Packet One Networks (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, now covers 25 per cent of the peninsular.
Puan said about RM400 million of the RM500 million capex would be raised from vendor financing and borrowings.

The remaining RM100 million should come from equity and convertible debts, he told reporters at a briefing on Green Packet's interim results in Petaling Jaya yesterday.

The company has group cash and cash equivalents of RM174 million as of end-September. With another RM65 million from bank and vendor facilities, it has total funding of RM239 million, more than the RM155 million required for the next nine months.

Meanwhile, Green Packet's revenue for the third quarter to September 30 this year rose 11.5 per cent to RM63 million from RM56.5 million in the preceeding quarter.

But it made a net loss of RM32.9 million mainly due to the investments in P1's deployment and activities.

A turnaround is possible starting from the middle of next year as he said P1 should break even in the first quarter on 2010, which could push Green Packet into the black as early as first half of next year.

Green Packet's 4G subscribers have increased to 100,000 in 14 months and the company plans to double it to 200,000 in the next two months.

The company plans to extend its 4G service to Sabah, Sarawak and Singapore and increase exports of its 4G devices by several fold next year, Puan said.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/ket/Article/index_html


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Green Packet suffers bigger loss
Published: 2009/11/12

Green Packet Bhd's pre-tax loss for its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2009, rose by 200 per cent to RM32.377 million from RM10.784 million in the same quarter last year.

This was due to its investment in subsidiary Packet One Networks (M) Sdn Bhd (P1)'s deployment plan and activities, Green Packet said in a statement today.

However, its revenue increased by 246.9 per cent during the third quarter to RM63.035 million from RM18.172 previously.

Green Packet said P1's subscriber growth increased by 44 per cent in the third quarter as compared to the second quarter.

"In line with the group's business strategy, we are investing heavily in our 4G WiMAX operator, P1, which is rapidly expanding across Malaysia and gaining momentum in terms of subscribers," said Green Packet's group managing director and chief executive officer Puan Chan Cheong.

Puan said Green Packet's advertising and promotion activities had increased substantially, with the company moving to mainstream broadcast media to introduce its service packages to the masses.

"The quantum of subscriber increase is exciting, and we target for P1 to be EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) breakeven by first quarter 2010," he said.

P1, now the only nationwide 4G WiMAX operator in the country, plans to extend its network to East Malaysia and Singapore next year.

Green Packet said it has healthy cash reserves, having recently conducted a rights issue and announced a proposed private placement expected to be completed by the end of this financial year.

The proposed private placement is expected to contribute positively to the group's future earnings and should result in an increase in the company's total issued and paid-up share capital.

"Our fund raising is part of our business strategy, which requires working capital for capital expenditure and operating expenses, including the deployment of 4G WiMAX infrastructure in Malaysia and other overseas markets," Puan said.

Green Packet said its products and solutions have increased their shipments in recent months and were profitable since the second quarter.

The group is also expected to announce contracts with East European and American operators, and launch new products before the year-end. -- Bernama

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20091112211908/Article/index_html

Friday 6 November 2009

The truth behind impressive headlines and write-ups

The crowds think in images and are impressed by images rather than the facts and figures behind the images. Very often, the images which so impress them are of their own creation. Since a crowd is impressed by images, it can become prey to figures which have very little relation to the fact.

Many corporate movers and doers are aware of this fact. They feed the investors with a steady diet of figures calculated to impress. The most impressive of a possible range of figures is always the published one.

Thus, instead of providing the average per year profit figure, the ten year or even twenty year cumulated profit figure is the one given prominence.

In order to be even more impressive, the gross sales figures for the next ten or twenty years is usually given the banner headline treatment rather than the average annual sales figure.

The typical small investor, who usually finds it difficult to discern the truth behind the impressive headlines and write-ups, is naturally impressed by big numbers: The bigger the number, the more impressed is he.

For example:

Company X would announce that such and such a project would generate $X billion of sales (over the next 20 years in minute print). Company Y, not to be outdone, would announce that its new project would cost $Y billion and would bring in $Z billion of sales over the next fifty years.

The small, non-analytic and emotionally charged investors are so impressed by these billion dollar figures that they can lose total touch with reality.

A very good example of how raw figures can so impress investors such that they lose touch with reality is the case of Antah in connection with the announcement of the Antah-Biwater joint venture.

In 1985, it was announced that Antah-Biwater had won a M$1.4 billion contract to provide water supply to dozens of villages. On the strength of that particular announcement, the price of Antah’s shares rose from M$1.20 to over M$9.00 within a short space of time. To put this price rise into the proper perspective, this price rise had meant that Antah’s total market value had increased from M$60 million to M$460 million. This means that the market had expected Antah to reap a total benefit of M$400 million purely as a result of this project. The ridiculouseness of this particular episode of speculation can only be seen if we analyse the figures carefully.

First, although the whole project is valued at M$1.4 billion, Antah’s share of the project is only 51 per cent. Even if Antah-Biwater were to make 100 percent profit from this project, its total share of the after tax profit would only be M$393 million. This figure is smaller than the increase in market value of Antah as a result of the announcement.

Of course the profit from a civil engineering project can never be 100 per cent. It is more likely to be 10-20 percent and occasionally, even a loss can be sustained. Let us be generous and assume that Antah-Biwater is likely to make a 10 per cent after tax profit (ie 18 per cent pretax profit) from this contract. This means that the total benefit which Antah will reap from this contract would be around M$71 million, which is a mere 18 per cent of the increase in market value. Besides, the life of the whole project is extended over five years and the benefit of the project will accrue only gradually.

Not unexpectedly, Antah’s price fell to below $2.00 again within a year.

How ridiculously over optimistic can the market get! How did those investors who chased its share to over $9.00 feel? Do they blame their bad luck or do they blame themselves for their own lack of judgement?


Ref: Stock Market Investment in Malaysia and Singapore by Neoh Soon Kean

Also read:
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/lityan-selling-to-suckers.html