Showing posts with label trends not consistent. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trends not consistent. Show all posts

Tuesday 30 July 2013

Are the earnings of the business relatively predictable or highly volatile?

A couple of important points worth considering in understanding a potential investment is whether the earnings of the business are relatively predictable or likely to be highly volatile.  

It is relatively easier to invest in something where the projected earnings are likely to have a strong element of stability about them.  

Earnings should preferably be consistent, sustainable and predictable.  "The past is so much easier to predict."

Wednesday 28 October 2009

Past Market Movements: Trends Not Consistent

Examination of Past Market Movements of Malaysia KLSE
What can we learn from the history of overall market movements in the Malaysia KLSE?

1.  Generally Upward Trend
2.  Trends Not Consistent
3.  Irregular Price Patterns
4.  Prices Can Be Very Volatile
5.  Prices Move Volatile Upward
6.  Big Booms Are Irregular

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2.  Trends Not Consistent
It is very difficult to draw trends to fit stock market movements. 

The main problem is determining the starting point of the trend. 

While it is true that statistical programmes can be used for trend determination, one still has to rely on subjective judgement to determine the beginning and ending point of a trend.  The trend lines shown in charts are drawn based on the best available projected knowledge.