Showing posts with label intrinsic value spreadsheet. Show all posts
Showing posts with label intrinsic value spreadsheet. Show all posts

Sunday 15 April 2012

Intrinsic Value Calculation

Inputs Default Input Values (used for calculations)
Your Investment Horizon in Years (Max of 10): 5 5
Most Recent Reported EPS (Earnings Per Share): #N/A 0.1151
Projected EPS Growth Rate: #N/A 15.00%
Projected Average Annual PE Ratio: NA 10
Average Dividend Payout Ratio: #VALUE! 35%
Desired Minimum Annual Return: NA 10%
Current Stock Price NA $1.40


Calculations
Estimated Earnings Per Share after year 5: $0.23
Forecasted Stock Price after 5 Years: $2.32
Total Estimated Dividends for the next 5 Years: $0.08
Total Estimated Stock Value after 5 Years: $2.40
Current Share Price: $1.40
Estimated Intrinsic Value: $1.49
Estimated Margin of Safety: -6.27%


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Inputs Default Input Values (used for calculations)
Your Investment Horizon in Years (Max of 10): 5 5
Most Recent Reported EPS (Earnings Per Share): #N/A 0.1151
Projected EPS Growth Rate: #N/A 10.00%
Projected Average Annual PE Ratio: NA 10
Average Dividend Payout Ratio: #VALUE! 35%
Desired Minimum Annual Return: NA 15%
Current Stock Price NA $1.40

Calculations
Estimated Earnings Per Share after year 5: $0.19
Forecasted Stock Price after 5 Years: $1.85
Total Estimated Dividends for the next 5 Years: $0.06
Total Estimated Stock Value after 5 Years: $1.92
Current Share Price: $1.40
Estimated Intrinsic Value: $0.95
Estimated Margin of Safety: 31.87%
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http://smartstockresearch.com/InvestingBasics/Articles/Stock-Analysis-Spreadsheet.html

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How To Research A Stock 
How To Generate Investing Ideas 
What To Know Before You Begin Investing 
Why Invest Now? 
What Type of Investor are You? 
Is Investing in Stocks Like Gambling? 
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How To Read a Balance Sheet 
How To Read an Income Statement 
How To Read a Cash Flow Statement 
Why Read the Annual Report? 
Should You Be An Investor or Trader?

Online Investing Guide 
Where to Learn How To Invest 
Online Brokers 
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Where to Get News, Opinions, and Advice 
Where to Get Analyst Research 
Where to Get Economic Information

Sunday 26 February 2012

INTRINSIC VALUE: THE RIGHT PRICE TO PAY


INTRINSIC VALUE

Both Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham talk about the intrinsic value of a business, or a share in it.  That is, to buy a business, or a share in it, at a fair price. 

But, having regard to the possibility of error in calculating intrinsic value, the careful of investor should provide a margin of error by only buying the business, or shares, at a substantial discount to the intrinsic value.

Buffett is said to look for a 25 per cent discount, but who really knows?


DEFINING INTRINSIC VALUE

Buffett’s concept, in looking at intrinsic value, is that it values what can be taken out of the business. 

He has quoted investment guru John Burr Williams who defined value like this:
‘The value of any stock, bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows – discounted at an appropriate interest rate – that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset.’ – The Theory of Investment Value.

The difference for Buffett in calculating the value of bonds and shares is that the investor knows the eventual price of the bond when it matures but has to guess the price of the share at some future date.

Monday 17 October 2011

Intrinsic Value Calculator and Spreadsheet Template

http://www.intrinsicvaluecalc.com/


Intrinsic Value Calculator 


Value investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has 
undervalued.  They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting 
in stock price movements that do not correspond with the company's long-term 
fundamentals. The result is an opportunity for value investors to profit by buying 
when the price is deflated. (courtesy of Investopedia.com)


Want to estimate the value of a stock? Try this top-rated Intrinsic Value Calculator!


Simply enter your stock symbol and click "Submit" to get started.
Read more about Value Investing



Enter Stock Symbol and click Submit
Enter Stock Symbol  Terms of Use

STEP 1:  

Input values and click "Calculate Intrinsic Value"
Input or Adjust values:
Current EPS (TTM) :Where to find EPS(ttm)?
Estimated Growth Rate to use:%Where to find growth rate?
Future PE To use:View current PE  View historic PEs
Current Price $:Where to find current quote?
STEP 2:  

Review Results
Review Results
Estimated Intrinsic Value Price:$
Estimated Margin of Safety Value Price:$
5-Year Return on Investment Capital (ROIC):
(A strong business will have a 5-Year ROIC of 10% or greater)
  


Review Technical Chart
View Technical Chart for ; trade on momentum [MACD(17,8,9) and 10-day MA] 

Other useful research links:
View Key Statistics for 
View Historic Equity Growth (Book Value / Share) for 
View Historic EPS and Sales Growth for




How is the Estimated Intrinsic Value calculated?
The software determines an estimated growth rate based on the historic EPS and Equity growth rates. It then applies FV (future value) calculations to determine the expected EPS and stock price at some point in the future. It then reverses the calculation using a minimum acceptable rate of return (15%) to determine the intrinsic value in today’s dollars. The MOS price is half of that estimated intrinsic value price. Value investors
believe that risk can be minimized by only investing when the current price falls below the MOS price.




http://www.valuestockmoves.com/spreadsheetinfo.php

Click to Download this FREE!
Intrinsic Value Excel Spreadsheet Template

(or Right-Click and select 'Save-As')







Calculates the intrinsic value and MOS (margin of safety) for your stocks



Additional notes:

If you’re worried about earnings and earnings growth consistency and want to factor it in somehow, you may want to attenuate growth rates or bump up the discount rate to account for uncertainty.

The keep-it-simple-safe (KISS) approach used by most value investors, including Warren Buffett, is to discount at a relatively high rate, usually higher than the growth rate. 

Buffett uses 15 percent as a discount, or “hurdle” rate – investments must clear a 15 percent “hurdle” before clearing the bar.  The 15 percent hurdle incorporates a lot of risk, especially in today’s environment of relatively low interest rate and inflation. Conservative value investors usually use discount rates in the 10 to 15 percent range.