Earnings are not equivalent to cash flows

These metrics rely  on reported profits or earnings rather than cash flows:

P/E

P/EBITDA

P/S

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

Profits may not reflect the actual underlying cash flows.

Some examples:

1.  Interest paid on perpetual securities (perps)  

• These are not considered interest expense, thereby inflating profits.  
• At the same time, accounting for perps as equity also understates the company's actual gearing.

2.  Companies can capitalise interest expense as assets in certain circumstances

• Interests during construction of assets or when property developers borrow to purchase land for future development.  
• This would understate expenses and inflate profits and book value.

3.  Companies can be in total compliance with financial reporting standards but still be misleading

• A company is allowed to recognise construction revenue from in-house concessionaires based on estimated fair values of future income streams under the long-term agreements.  This revenue is recorded as financial receivables/intangible assets on the balance sheet.  
• When the concession asset commences operation, cash flows generated from the asset are recognised as sales, while the operating costs include amortisation of the financial receivables/intangible assets.  
• Basically, companies report earnings even when there is no cash flow during the construction period, and then actual cash flows are higher than reported earnings when the asset is in operation.  
• In short, reported earnings have little relationship to the actual cash flows.

It is far easier to manipulate profits than cash flows, unless the bank statements are also falsified.

Management faked sales invoices or "pre-billings" 

• This is to inflate sales, Ebitda, profits and book values -  to give the impression that the company was worth more than it really was.  
• As such, scrutinising the Cash Flow Statement - which shows the sources and applications of cash, tying the cash balance at the start and end of the financial period - can be more informative than the popular Profit and Loss Statement.

Ignoring the risk of debt

Also, most of these metrics often measure earnings against market capitalisation. 

• For instance, the P/E ratio attributes value to the earnings - but ignores the risks of debt used to generate those earnings.  
• This omission can have serious consequences for investors.
• A company with debts may appear to have more attractive valuations but this come with higher risks, which are not immediately evident and therefore, not properly accounted for, simply by looking at the Profit & Loss statement.  
• When companies have to borrow to service debts, the situation will, often spiral rapidly out of control.

Ref:  Tong's Portfolio 2  It's all a matter of trust

Relative and Absolute Price Earnings Ratio

Relative PE ratio

Relative PE ratio moves up because people expect either the industry or the company's prospects to be better relative to other securities than they have been than their preceding view and that can turn out to be justified or otherwise.

Absolute PE ratio

Absolute PE ratio moves up in respect to the earning power or the perspective earning power of that is viewed by the investing public of the future returns on equity and also in response to changes in interest rates.

Warren Buffett

Should You Sell Company ABC At This PE Ratio of 36.4x?

Should You Sell Company ABC At This PE Ratio?


ABC is trading with a trailing P/E of 36.4x, which is higher than the industry average of 23.5x.

• While ABC might seem like a stock to avoid or sell if you own it, it is important to understand the assumptions behind the P/E ratio before you make any investment decisions. 
• You should understand what the P/E ratio is, how to interpret it and what to watch out for. 

1.   Breaking down the P/E ratio

The P/E ratio is one of many ratios used in relative valuation. 

• By comparing a stock’s price per share to its earnings per share, we are able to see how much investors are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings.

P/E Calculation for ABC

Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share



On its own, the P/E ratio doesn’t tell you much; however, it becomes extremely useful when you compare it with other similar companies.

• Your goal is to compare the stock’s P/E ratio to the average of companies that have similar attributes to ABC, such as company lifetime and products sold. 
• A quick method of creating a peer group is to use companies in the same industry. 
• ABC’s P/E of 36.4x is higher than its industry peers (23.5x), which implies that each dollar of  ABC’s earnings is being overvalued by investors. Therefore, according to this analysis, ABC is an over-priced stock.

2.  Assumptions to watch out for

Before you jump to the conclusion that ABC should be banished from your portfolio, it is important to realise that your conclusion rests on two assertions. 

(a)  Firstly, your peer group contains companies that are similar to ABC.

• If this isn’t the case, the difference in P/E could be due to other factors. 
• For example, if you compared lower risk firms with ABC, then investors would naturally value it at a lower price since it is a riskier investment. 

(b)  The second assumption that must hold true is that the stocks we are comparing ABC to are fairly valued by the market.

• If this is violated, ABC’s P/E may be lower than its peers as they are actually overvalued by investors.

3.   What this means for you:


(a)  Are you a shareholder? 

You may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock as a shareholder, so its current overvaluation could signal a potential selling opportunity to reduce your exposure to ABC.

Now that you understand the ins and outs of the PE metric, you should know to bear in mind its limitations before you make an investment decision.


(b)  Are you a potential investor? 

If you are considering investing in ABC, looking at the PE ratio on its own is not enough to make a well-informed decision.

You will benefit from looking at additional analysis and considering its intrinsic valuation along with other relative valuation metrics like PEG and EV/Sales.

PE is one aspect of your portfolio construction to consider when holding or entering into a stock. But it is certainly not the only factor. 

Another limitation of PE is it doesn’t properly account for growth, you can use a list of stocks with a high growth potential and see if their PE is still reasonable.




The thought process using Relative Valuation

Price based on past earnings
PE 36.4x
ABC is overvalued based one earnings compared to the industry average.
ABC is overvalued based on earnings compared to the local market.


Price based on expected growth
PEG 3.0x
ABC is poor value based on expected growth next year.


Price based on value of assets
P/B 15.3x
ABC is overvalued based on assets compared to the industry average

Price/Earning Ratio or P/E Ratio

This is a company's stock price divided by its earnings per share over the previous twelve months.

Because earnings can be manipulated in many ways and because past earnings are a poor guide to future profits, a P/E ratio is an imprecise and often misleading guide to what the company is worth.

A "normalised" P/E ratio averages several years's worth of earnings to arrive at a somewhat more reliable number.

A "forward" P/E relies on analysts' expectations of earnings in the coming year to arrive at a nonsensical number.

Multiples based on Comparables

This method compares relative values estimated using multiples to determine whether an asset is 

• undervalued, 
• overvalued or 
• fairly valued.  

The benchmark multiple can be any of:

• A multiple of a closely matched individual stock.
• The average or median multiple of a peer group or the firm's industry.
• The average multiple derived from trend or time-series analysis.

Analyst should be careful to select only those companies that have similar size, product lines, and growth prospects to the company being valued as comparables.

Price to cash flow ratio 

P/CF = Market price of share / Cash flow per share

Price to sales ratio

P/S = Market price per share / Net sales per share

P/S = Market value of equity / Total net sales

Price to Book Value ratio

P/BV = Current market price of share / Book value per share

P/BV = Market vale of common shareholders' equity / Book value of common shareholders' equity

where:

Book value of common shareholders' equity 

= (Total assets - Total liabilities) - Preferred stock

Multiples based on Fundamentals - the Justified P/E ratio

A price multiple may be related to fundamentals through a dividend discount model such as the Gordon growth model.

The expressions developed in such an exercise are interpreted as the justified (or based on fundamental) values for a multiple.


The justified P/E Ratio:

P/E = D/E/(r-g)

r = required rate of return
g = growth


Gordon Growth Model

r = D/P + g
D/P = r-g
P= D/(r-g)
P/E = D/E(r-g)
P/E = Dividend Payout Ratio / (r-g)



Inference

The P/E ratio is inversely related to the required rate of return.
The P/E ratio is positively related to the growth rate.
The P/E ratio appears to be positively related to the dividend payout ratio.

• However, this relationship may not always hold because a higher dividend payout ratio implies that the company's earnings retention ratio is lower.  
• A lower earnings retention ratio translates into a lower growth rate.  
• This is known as the "dividend displacement" of earnings.

Notes:

Higher the growth rate (g), higher the P/E.
Higher the required rate of return (r), lower the P/E.
Higher the DPO ratio, higher the P/E.
Also, higher the DPO ratio, lower the retained earnings,  leading to lower growth rate (g), thus lower P/E. ("dividend displacement" of earnings)

Price Multiples - Relative Valuation

Price multiples are ratios that compare the price of a stock to some sort of value.

Price multiples allow an analyst to evaluate the relative worth of a company's stock.

Popular multiples used in relative valuation include:

• price-to-earnings,
• price-to-sales,
• price-to-book, and
• price-to-cash flow.

Price/earnings ratio

For example:

Profit after tax  $5 million
Number of issued shares 10 million
Earnings per share 50 sen
Current share price $7.50
Price/earnings ratio 15

This is one of the most helpful of the investment ratios and it can be used to compare different companies.

The higher the number the more expensive the shares.

It is often useful to do the calculation based on anticipated future earnings rather than declared historic earnings, although of course you can never be certain what future earnings will be.

The calculation is the current quoted price per share divided by earnings per share.

The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing 10

Valuation – The Basics

Even the most wonderful business is a poor investment if purchased for too high a price. To invest successfully means you need to buy great companies at attractive prices.

Investors purchase an asset for less than their estimate of its value and receive a return more or less in line with the financial performance of that asset. Speculators, by contrast, purchase an asset not because they believe it's actually worth more, but because they think another investor will pay more for it at some point. The return that investors receive on assets depends largely on the accuracy of their analysis, whereas a speculator's return depends on the gullibility of others.

Over time, the stock market's returns come from two key components: investment return and speculative return. [...] the investment return is the appreciation of a stock because of its dividend yield and subsequent earnings growth, whereas the speculative return comes from the impact of changes in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. [...] over a long time span, the impact of investment returns trump the impact of speculative returns.

By paying close attention to the price you pay for a stock, you minimize your speculative risk, which helps maximize your total return.

The most basic ratio of all is the P/S ratio, which is the current price of the stock divided by sales per share. The nice thing about the P/S ratio is that sales are typically cleaner than reported earnings because companies that use accounting tricks usually seek to boost earnings.

The P/S ratio has one big flaw: Sales may be worth a little or a lot, depending on a company's profitability.

Although the P/S ratio might be useful if you're looking at a firm with highly variable earnings – because you can compare today's P/S with a historical P/S ratio – it's not something you want to rely on very much. In particular, don't compare companies in different industries on a price-to-sales basis, unless the two industries have very similar levels of profitability.

Another common valuation measure is price-to-book (P/B), which compares a stock's market value with the book value (also known as shareholder's equity or net worth) on the company's most recent balance sheet. The idea here is that future earnings or cash flows are ephemeral, and all we can really count on is the net value of a firm's tangible assets in the here-and-now.

When the market was dominated by capital-intensive firms that owned factories, land, rail track, and inventory – all of which had some objective tangible worth – it made sense to value firms based on their accounting book value. After all, not only would those hard assets have value in a liquidation, but also they were the source of many firms' cash flow. But now, many companies are creating wealth through intangible assets such as processes, brand names, and databases, most of which are not directly included in book value.

Another item to be wary of when using P/B to value stocks is goodwill, which can inflate book value to the point that even the most expensive firm looks like a value. When one company buys another, the difference between the target firm's tangible book value and the purchase price is called goodwill, and it's supposed to represent the value of all the intangible assets – smart employees, strong customer relationships, efficient internal processes – that made the target firm worth buying. Unfortunately, goodwill often represents little else but the desperation of the acquiring firm to buy the target before someone else did, because acquiring firms often overpay for target companies. Be highly skeptical of firms for which goodwill makes up a sizable portion of their book value.

A company that's trading at a lower P/E than its industry peers could be a good value, but remember that even firms in the same industry can have very different capital structures, risk levels, and growth rates, all of which affect the P/E ratio. All else equal, it makes sense to pay a higher P/E for a firm that's growing faster, has less debt, and has lower capital reinvestment needs.

In general, comparing a company's P/E with industry peers or with the market has some value, but these aren't approaches that you should rely on to make a final buy or sell decision. However, comparing a stock's current P/E with its historical P/E ratios can be useful, especially for stable firms that haven't undergone major shifts in their business. If you see a solid company that's growing at roughly the same rate with roughly the same business prospects as in the past, but it's trading at a lower P/E than its long-term average, you should start getting interested.

Because risk, growth, and capital needs are all fundamental determinants of a stock's P/E ratio, higher growth firms should have higher P/E ratios, higher risk firms should have lower P/E ratios, and firms with higher capital needs should have lower P/E ratios.

When you're looking at a P/E ratio, you must be sure that the E makes sense. If a firm has recently sold off a business or perhaps a stake in another firm, it's going to have an artificially inflated E, and thus a lower P/E. Because you don't want to value the firm based on one-time gains such as this, you need to strip out the proceeds from the sale before calculating the P/E.

Don't rely on any single valuation metric because no individual ratio tells the whole story. Apply a number of different valuation tools when you're assessing a stock.

http://books.danielhofstetter.com/the-five-rules-for-successful-stock-investing/

Valuation methods

Even the best investing strategies won't help you if you don't understand the value of the investments you are making.

Without assessing the future potential of your investments, you are simply gambling by letting probability take over.

It is in the nature of investment valuation that the calculations of their value are mathematical.


Return on Investment (ROI)

This is the end result of how much money you make or lose on an investment.

ROI = (P - C) / C

P= current market price at which you sold the investment
C = cost of the investment - the price you paid for it.


Present Value

Present value is the value that an investment with known future value has at the present time.

PV = FV / [(1+r)^t]

FV= amount of money you will receive at the end of the investment's life
r= the rate of return you are earning on the investment during that time
t= the amount of time that passes (in years) between now and the end of the investment's life.

This is an extremely common calculation with bonds, since bonds are sold at the discounted rate (the present value), and you must estimate whether the market price of the bond is above or below the present value to determine whether the price is worth it.


Net Present Value (NPV)

Net present value is the sum of present values on an investment that generates multiple cash flows.

When calculating NPV, calculate the present values of each payment you will receive, and then add them together.



ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE MODELS

The value of fixed-rate investments is easy because you have certainty regarding what you will earn.

The problems come when you start estimating the value of variable-rate investments, like stocks or derivatives.

There are many complicated methods of calculating variable-rate investments, but they fall into three categories:

Absolute
Relative, and
Hybrid


Absolute models

Liquidation value or intrinsic value

Absolute models are the most popular among investors who look for the intrinsic value of an investment, rather than attempting to benefit by trading on movements in the market.

Such models include calculations of the liquidation value of the company, often adjusted for growth over the next few years.

In other words, you start with what the company would be worth if you simply sold everything it has for the cash, then subtract the debt.

Of course, the value of companies changes over time, and the market price of stocks is often based on the future earning potential of the company, rather than its current earnings.

So, estimates of liquidation value start with the current liquidation value and then increase that value by a percentage consistent with their average past growth, or by some other estimate of their future growth.


Dividend Discount Model  (DDM)

For investors who prefer investments that yield dividends, the DDM is popular.

DDM is calculated by working out the NPV of future dividends.

If you estimate that dividends will grow over that period, simply subtract the growth rate from the rate of return in the NPV calculation.

NPV = Dividend / (R - g)

R= discount rate
g= growth rate

For dividend investors, if the NPV of the dividends is lower than the current market price per share of the stock, the stock is undervalued, making it a great deal.


Relative Models

Relative models are popular among traders, who invest based on short-term movements in the market because they allow them to compare the performance of various options.

Common tools in performing these comparative assessments use the financial statements of a company and include:

Price to earnings ratio (P/E)

This functions as an indicator of the price you are paying for the profits a company will earn for you, either as dividends or through the investment of retained earnings.

Return on equity (ROE) = Net Income / Shareholder Equity

This indicates the amount of money a company makes using the money shareholders have invested in the company.

Operating margin = Operating Income / Net Sales

This indicates how efficiently a company is operating.


These indicators are not calculations of company value, but indicators of the comparative performance of companies in which one might invest.



Hybrids

Absolute and relative models are combined to create hybrids that attempt to estimate the value of a stock by combining the intrinsic value of the company with how well it performs compared to other potential investments.

What does P/E mean? Future P/E is the Key

P/E ratio or price earnings ratio of a stock refers to the market multiplier.

P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the current market price of a stock by the previous year's earnings per share.

Generally, a low P/E would mean that a stock is selling at a relatively low price compared to its earnings.

A high P/E would indicate that a stock's price is high and may not be much of a bargain.

The P/E of one successful company may be very different from that of another successful company if the two companies are in different industries.

High-tech companies with big growth and high earnings generally sell at much higher P/Es than low-tech or mature companies where growth has stabilized.

Some stocks can sell at very high prices even when the companies have no earnings.  The high prices reflect the market's expectation for high earnings in the future.


Future P/E is the Key

A knowledgeable investor recognizes that the current P/E is not as important as the future P/E.  

The investor wants to invest in a company that has a strong financial future, that is, invest into its earnings potential..

In order for the P/E ratio to be helpful to the investor, much more information about the company may be needed.

Generally, the investor will compare a company's ratios for the current year with that of previous years to measure the growth of the company.

The investor will also compare the company's ratios with those of other companies in the same industry.

Which company is cheaper? (Understanding P/E, Earnings yield and EBIT/EV.)

Consider two companies, Company A and Company B.

They are actually the same company (i.e. the same sales, the same operating earnings, the same everything) except that Company A has no debt and Company B has $50 in debt (at a 10% interest rate).

All information is per share

Company A

Sales                     $100
EBIT                         10
Interest expense          0
Pretax Income           10
Taxes @ 40%             4
Net Income               $6


Company B

Sales                     $100
EBIT                         10
Interest expense           5
Pretax Income             5
Taxes @ 40%             2
Net Income               $3


The price of Company A is $60 per share.
The price of Company B is $10 per share.

Which is cheaper?

P/E of Company A is 10 ($60/6 = 10).  The E/P or earnings yield, of Company A is 10% (6/60).
P/E of Company B is 3.33 ($10/3 = 3.33). The E/P or earnings yield of Company B is 30% (3/10).

So which is cheaper?
Using P/E and earnings yield, Company B looks much cheaper than Company A.

So, is Company B clearly cheaper?


Let's look at EBIT/EV for both companies.

Company A
Enterprise value (Market price + debt)   60 + 0 = $60
EBIT   $10


Company B
Enterprise value (Market price + debt)   10 + 50 = $60
EBIT   $10

They are the same! Their EBIT/EV are the same.

To the buyer of the whole company, would it matter whether you paid $10 per share for the company and owed another $50 per share or you paid $60 and owed nothing?

It is the same thing!

*You would be buying $10 worth of EBIT for $60, either way!




Additional note:

* For example, whether you pay $200k for a building and assume a $800k mortgage or pay $1 million up front, it should be the same to you.  The building costs $1 million either way!

[Using EBIT/EV as your earnings yield provide a better picture than E/P, of how cheap or expensive the asset is.]

Pretax operating earnings or EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) was used in place of reported earnings because companies operate with different levels of debt and differing tax rates. Using EBIT allowed us to view and compare the operating earnings of different companies without the distortions arising from the differences in tax rates and debt levels.  For each company, it was then possible to compare actual earnings from operations (EBIT) to the cost of the assets used to produce those earnings (tangible capital employed) and to the price you are paying.

Returns on Capital
= EBIT / (Net Working Capital + Net Fixed Assets)

Earnings Yield
= EBIT / EV
= EBIT / Enterprise Value

As an investor, you are looking for companies with high Returns on Capital and selling for a bargain or high Earnings Yield (EBIT / EV).

REF:  The Little Book that still Beats the Market by Joel Greenblatt

Alternative to Discounted Cash Flow Method

What do you use if you don't want to or can't use the discounted cash flow (DCF) method of valuing a stock?  

There are other methods for valuing a stock (not valuing the company).  The most popular alternative uses various multiples to compare the price of one stock to a comparable stock.

The price earnings ratio (P/E) is the most popular multiple for these comparisons.

You can use the P/E formula to find the price based on comparable stocks.

For example, three stocks in a particular industry had an average P/E of say 18.5.  If another stock ABC in the same industry had earnings of $2.50 per share, you could calculate a stock price of $46.25 per share (= 2.5 x 18.5).  This is just an approximation, but it should put stock ABC on a comparable basis with the other three stocks in the same industry.



This strategy has several flaws.

1.  The P/E is not always the most reliable of value gauges.
2.  The process depends on the three comparables being priced correctly and there is no guarantee of that.
3.   Its biggest flaw is that the process tells you nothing of the future value of the company or the stock.

If you use this method, and many investors do, you will need to watch the stock more closely and continually measure it against comparables.  However, it does not require you to estimate anything or consider multiple variables, which is why it is so popular.

This method is best used for a quick decision on whether the stock is under-priced or over-priced.
Although you can arrive at a stock price based on the P/E formula, it is not nearly as accurate as the DCF method.



You can also use other key ratios in valuation.

These include the followings:
1.  Price/Book - Value market places on book value.
2.  Price/Sales - Value market places on sales.
3.  Price/Cash Flow - Value market places on cash flow.
4.  Dividend Yield - Shareholder yield from dividends.



So, which method should you use - DCF or multiples?

In the end, you will have to decide which method is for you.

There is no rule against using both.

Whether you calculate your own DCFs or use the estimates from others, reputable websites or analysts estimates, make sure you have the best guess available on the variables the formula needs.

Either way, make a conscious decision to buy a stock based on the valuation method of your choice and not a "feeling" for the stock.

The various interpretations for the P/E value

There are various interpretations for the P/E value and this is just one of them:

*N/A: A company with no earnings has an undefined P/E ratio. Companies with losses or negative earnings also fall under this category.
*0-10: This means that the company's earnings are declining. It could also mean an overlooked stock.
*10-17: This is the average healthy value
*17-25: This means that the stock is either overvalued or its earnings are increasing.
*25+: Such companies are expected to have high future growth in earnings.

It is important that investors note avoid basing a decision on this measure alone. The ratio is dependent on share price which can fluctuate according to changes in the market.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.ca/2009/11/what-does-pe-ratio-tell-you.html

Knowing and Setting the Upper Limits of Share Price

The P/E also can be used to establish a cap on intrinsic value.

While asset values set the lowest level for estimating intrinsic value, the P/E can serve as an upper limit.

The P/E ratio establishes the maximum amount an investor should pay for earnings.

• If the investor decides that the appropriate P/E ratio for a stock is 10, the share price paid should be no more than 10 times most recent yearly earnings.

It is not wrong to pay more, Graham and Dodd noted; it is that doing so enters the realm of speculation.  

• Since young, rapidly expanding companies generally trade at a P/E ratio of 20 to 25 or above, Graham usually avoided them, which was one reason he never invested in some new start up stocks, though he used and was impressed by their products early in his career.

P/E Ratio

What is P/E?

P/E is the price/earnings ratio. In essence, the P/E compares the share price of the company to its earnings per share.

How is P/E calculated?

P/E is calculated using the following formula:

(Market value per share) / (Earnings per share)

What are different types of P/E?

There are three main types of P/E, trailing, rolling, and forward. Trailing P/E is the price/earnings ratio for the past four quarters, or one year. Rolling P/E is the price/earnings ratio for the past two quarters as well as the projected next two quarters. Forward P/E is the price/earnings ratio for the projected next four quarters, or one year. Rolling and Forward P/E are less accurate than trailing P/E because they utilize projected figures.

Why is P/E important?

P/E is important because it helps you look at a company's growth. A higher P/E suggests that the public expects the company to grow more in the future than a company with a lower P/E. For example, high-technology companies like Google can have an astronomical P/E of around 70, whereas very established consumables companies like Wal-Mart usually have a lower P/E of around 20. P/E essentially tells you how many years of earnings it would take for a company to equal its present value. Wal-Mart would need about 20 years, and Google 70. The reason for this disparity is that Google's earnings are expected to grow much more rapidly, and because of this it will eventually take much less than 70. That is why the forward P/E is so important.

Average S&P P/E

As you can see in this P/E chart for 60 years, average P/E can fluctuate widely, but in the past decades it is rapidly increasing and tends to be in between 10 and 25.

Watch out for...

Although P/E is a very good metric to use, there are various ways that it can be manipulated to represent something that the companies want you to see. P/E is based upon the earnings of the company, and the accounting process could come up with numbers that don't accurately reflect the true state of the company. In addition, inflation and deflation can affect the P/E, so it is important to look at P/E over a period of time instead of just one to determine the trends.

http://www.stanford.edu/~mikefan/metrics/peratio.html

QUICKIES: Seven investment myths you should not fall for

Text: Prerna Katiyar | ET Bureau

Pick this stock, it's trading at 52-week low.' 'That stock is a multi-bagger, trading at such a low PE.' 'Penny stocks make fortunes while stocks trading below book value are a sure pick for making quick bucks.'

Haven't we all heard such statements at some point in our lives? If you are one of those who believe in such assertions, read on. For, these are among the many myths in investing.



Here we list seven of them


Myth No 1: Stocks trading below book value are cheap

Book value (BV) is the actual worth of a stock as in a company's books/balance sheet, or the cost of an asset minus accumulated depreciation.

BV depends more on historical cost and depreciation and often has little correlation to the current share price.

Shares of industries that are capital intensive trade at lower price/ book ratios, as they generate lower earnings. On the other hand, those business models that have more human capital will fetch higher earnings and will trade at higher price/book ratios.

"Price/book (ratio) of below 1 may be cheap but one should see other aspects such as earnings forecast, guidance, management and debt on the books of the company ," says Angel Broking's equity derivatives head Siddarth Bhamre.


Myth No 2: Stocks trading at low P/E are under-valued

Price to earning ratio (P/E) is one of the most talked about ratios in the market. This is based on the theory that stocks with low P/Es are cheap.

However, P/E alone doesn't tell much about the stock price. P/E multiples may be a quick way to value a stock but one should look at this in correlation with expected growth earnings, the risk factors involved, company's performance and growth potential .

"This is surely a myth. It is also an indication of uncertain future earning of the stock concerned," says Birla Sunlife Mutual Fund CEO A Balasubramanian.

The idea behind dividing price with earnings is to create a levelplaying field where some kind of comparison can be made between high- and low-priced stocks.

Since P/E ratios vary across sectors, with growth stocks consistently trading at higher P/E, one can only compare the P/E ratio of a stock to the average P/E ratio of stocks in that sector.


Myth No. 3: Penny stocks make good fortunes

Penny stocks by nature are lowpriced , speculative and risky because of their limited liquidity, following and disclosure.

If it's easy to invest in penny stocks - as here you shell out much less money per share than you would require for a blue-chip firm - it's also easy to lose.

Says Bhamre, "Fortune can be made by high-denomination stocks also. Denomination has nothing to do with the rationale for picking a stock. Generally , retail investors are fond of stocks that are at sub- Rs 100 levels. But there may be stocks that may be trading in Rs 1,000-plus price but may well be cheap. Clarity on earnings is more important here. Anytime, I would be more comfortable buying an ICICI Bank (currently trading at Rs 1,038) than an IFCI at Rs 45. One should look at earnings visibility."


Myth No. 4: The worst is over in the stock market

Timing the market, a common strategy among investors, means forecasting and that should best be left to astrologers and tarot readers.

If one has done one's valuation studies, one shouldn't worry about timing the market. No one had predicted the bull run would take the Sensex from a level of 10,000 in February 2006 to over 21,000 in January 2008 - just as no one had any idea of the following crash, which saw the same index plummeting to 9,000 in March 2009.

"Timing the market is more of a gut feeling. It's more on the basis of perception, as there is no such thing (that the worst is over) when the future is uncertain. One can never surely time the market. The worst is over is more of a probability than a certainty. Timing the market is very difficult as market is driven not just by earnings but also by sentiments ," says Balasubramanian.


Myth No 5: Stocks that give high dividends are the best bet

This comes from the notion that regular dividends are extra income in the shareholder's hand. This may not always be true.

While a company may be making decent payouts every year, the share price appreciation may not be comparatively high. Before investing in companies paying high dividends, it's important to analyse if the company is reinvesting enough profit to grow its earnings consistently.

Says Brics Securities' research VP Sonam Udasi: "It's not dividend that matters but the yield. For eg, a company may pay a 100% or even a 300% dividend on a stock with face value of Rs 10.

So, the investor may receive Rs 10 or Rs 30 per share when the stock may be currently trading at Rs 800 or Rs 1000. This would translate into an yield of 1% or 3% only. Also, such companies may not necessarily be reinvesting their earnings in the business to generate future earnings and so there may be no stock movement. The dividend may be high but the EPS and growth per se may be constant."



Myth N0 6: Index stocks are the best stocks

If this was true, most investors would safely park their money in such stocks in anticipation of maximum profit without looking out for other value stocks.

Most indices are a collection of stocks with the highest market cap. Take, for eg, the Sensex.

Companies that make up the index are some of the largest, with stocks that are highly traded based on their free-float.

"Index stocks may not necessarily be the best stocks as they are mostly based on market-cap or free-float of the company and not earnings. This doesn't mean that all stocks of the Sensex are highearning stocks. One must take a stock-by-stock call," says Balasubramanian of Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund.

The stock price of a company depends on its earnings. One can find high-earning stocks outside the key indices as well, he says. The risk is certainly less with index stocks as they are well researched and leaders in their respective sectors, but, again, the margins may not be very high. So it's better to keep your eyes open to other stocks, too.



Myth No 7: Stocks trading at 52-week low are cheap

Says Udasi: "There may be a time in the economic cycle when a blue-chip stock may hit a 52-week low.

But the first thing that should come to one's mind is why did the stock hit the 52-week low.

There must be something fundamentally wrong with the stock if it has hit a 52-week low, and chances are they may hit a new 52-week low.

52-week low in itself guarantees nothing. If at all one is picking stocks at 52-week lows, they should have a long-term horizon so that when the economic cycle turns, the stock is able to recover."

Needless to say, quality matters most while buying any stock.


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/seven-investment-myths-you-should-not-fall-for/quickiearticleshow/9438662.cms

A beginner's guide to P/E ratio