myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Thursday 12 July 2012

The Roles Of Traders And Investors In The Marketplace

July 11 2012

Many people use the words "trading" and "investing" interchangeably when, in reality, they are two very different activities. While both traders and investors participate in the same marketplace, they perform two very different tasks using very different strategies. Both of these parties are necessary, however, for the market to function smoothly. This article will take a look at both parties and the strategies that they use to make a profit in the marketplace.

SEE: Passive Vs. Active Management

What Is an Investor?An investor is the market participant that the general public most often associates with the stock market. Investors are those who purchase shares of a company for the long term with the belief that the company has strong future prospects. Investors typically concern themselves with two things:

Value - Investors must consider whether a company's shares represent a good value. For example, if two similar companies are trading at different earnings multiples, the lower one might be the better value because it suggests that the investor will need to pay less for $1 of earnings when investing in Company A relative to what would be needed to gain exposure to $1 of earnings in Company B.
Success - Investors must measure the company's future success by looking at its financial strength and evaluating its future cash flows.

Both of these factors can be determined through the analysis of the company's financial statements along with a look at industry trends that may define future growth prospects. At a basic level, investors can measure the current value of a company relative to its future growth possibilities by looking at metrics such as the PEG ratio- that is, the company's P/E (value) to growth (success) ratio.

SEE: PEG Ratio Nails Down Value Stocks

Who Are the Major Investors?There are many different investors that are active in the marketplace. In fact, the vast majority of the money that is at work in the markets belongs to investors (not to be confused with the amount of dollars traded per day, which is a record held by the traders). Major investors include:

Investment Banks - Investment banks are the organizations that assist companies in going public and raising money. This often involves holding at least a portion of the securities over the long term.
Mutual Funds - Many individuals keep their money in mutual funds, which make long-term investments in companies that meet specific criteria. Mutual funds are required by law to act as investors, not traders.
Institutional Investors - These are large organizations or persons that hold large stakes in companies. Institutional investors often include company insiders, competitors hedging themselves and special opportunity investors.
Retail Investors - Retail investors are individuals that invest in the stock market for their personal accounts. At first, the influence of retail traders may seem small, but as time passes more people are taking control of their portfolios and, as a result, the influence of this group is increasing.

SEE: Institutional Investors And Fundamentals: What's The Link?

All of these parties are looking to hold positions for the long term in an effort to stick with the company while continuing to be successful. Warren Buffett's success is a testament to the viability of this strategy.

What Is a Trader?Traders are market participants who purchase shares in a company with a focus on the market itself rather than the company's fundamentals. Markets that trade commodities lend themselves well to traders. After all, very few people purchase wheat because of its fundamental quality - they do so to take advantage of small price movements that occur as a result of supply and demand. Traders typically concern themselves with:

Price Patterns - Traders will look at the price history in an attempt to predict future price movements, which is known as technical analysis.
Supply and Demand - Traders keep close watch on their trades intraday to see where the money is moving and why.
Market Emotion - Traders play on the fears of investors through techniques like fading, where they will bet against the crowd after a large move takes place.
Client Services - Market makers (one of the largest types of traders) are actually hired by their clients to provide liquidity through rapid trading.

Ultimately, it is traders that provide the liquidity for investors and always take the other end of their trades. Whether it is through market making or fading, traders are a necessary part of the marketplace.

SEE: What Can Traders Learn From Investors?

Who Are the Major Traders?When it comes to volume, traders have investors beat by a long shot. There are many different types of traders that can trade as often as every few seconds. Among the most popular types of traders are:

Investment Banks - The shares that are not kept for long-term investment are sold. During the initial public offering process, investment banks are responsible for selling the company's stock in the open market through trading.
Market Makers - These are groups responsible for providing liquidity in the marketplace. Profit is made through the bid-ask spread along with fees charged to the clients. Ultimately, this group provides liquidity for all the marketplaces.
Arbitrage Funds - Arbitrage funds are the groups that quickly move in on market inefficiencies. For example, shortly after a merger is announced, stocks always quickly move to the new buyout price minus the risk premium. These trades are executed by arbitrage funds.
Proprietary Traders/Firms - Proprietary traders are hired by firms to make money through short-term trading. They use proprietary trading systems and other techniques in an attempt to make more money by compounding the short-term gains than can be made by long-term investing.

The Bottom LineClearly, both traders and investors are necessary in order for a market to function properly. Without traders, investors would have no liquidity through which to buy and sell shares. Without investors, traders would have no basis from which to buy and sell. Combined, the two groups form the financial markets as we know them today.

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Thursday 12 July 2012

The Roles Of Traders And Investors In The Marketplace

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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