Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS)
****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods****
The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
1. Investment: Investment is rationally based on the knowledge of past share price behaviour. From such knowledge, it is possible to compute the probability of future return.
A common method of investment analysis is to study the past range of PER or DY of a particular share or a class of shares.
From this study of its past price range, we can predict the likelihood of its price being out of this range in the future.
By comparing its current price with the expected future price range (future price = future PER x future earnings) we know whether the current price is too high or too low and take the necessary action accordingly.
Speculation: Speculation is purely based on the HOPE that the future price will be higher rather than on anything tangible.
2. Investment: Investment requires an investor to do some work before hand and decisions are made based on known facts and figure.
Such work typically may consist of estimating future level of Earnings Per Share and computing the past range of the PER.
By multiplying the future EPS with the likely PER, we have an estimate of the future level of price.
If the present price is very low compared with the future price, we buy and vice versa.
Speculation: Speculation is usually based on wild rumours and unsubstantiated hearsays which cannot be checked for accuracy. Undoubtely, speculation is a lot easier than investment but one tends to reap what one sows.
3. Investment: Investment is made for the long term (i.e. two years or more)based on the idea that one is much more certain when one is trying to predict the cumulative results of many daily movement. Once invests with the knowledge that over the long run, the real investors will always make a gain.
Speculation: Speculation is usually for the short run (i.e three months or lessunless one is caught whence a speculator is then forced to become an investor), based on the idea that certain events may result in a rise in price (bonus, rights, takeovers, and others).
4. Investment: Over a long period of time, true investment tends to produce a positive result. Based on many years of research in the US and Europe, Long Term Investment consistently produced much higher return than fixed deposit or the inflation rate. The Malaysian experience has mirrored the Western experience.
Speculation: Since speculation is not based on anything concrete, its result is not at all predictable. Speculation can occasionally produce very high gains just as it can produce very high losses. Over a long period of time, speculation is most unlikely to produce better return than true investment.
5. Investment: True investors can sleep soundly at night since they have a fairly good idea of the possible extent of their loss and gain before hand. Besides, since they are investing for the long term, they can forget about short term movements and ignore the market most of the time.
Speculation: Speculation is likely to lead to many sleepless nights and anxious days since its result is so uncertain. The speculator will have to be always on the alert to take the necessary quick action to catch the right moment.
Previously posted in this blog on SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2009