Showing posts with label cash flow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cash flow. Show all posts

Friday 25 December 2009

Spotting Cash Cows

Spotting Cash Cows
by Ben McClure (Contact Author | Biography)

Cash cows are just what the name implies - companies that can be milked for further ongoing profits with little expense. Producing plenty of cash, these companies can reinvest in new systems and plants, pay for acquisitions and support themselves when the economy slows. They have the capacity to increase their dividend or reinvest that cash to boost returns further. Either way, shareholders stand to benefit. To help you spot cash cows that are worthy of your investment, we look at what sets these companies apart and offer some guidelines for assessing them.

 
The Cash Cow: An Overview
A cash cow is a company with plenty of free cash flow - that is, the cash left over after the company meets its necessary yearly expenses. Smart investors really like this kind of company because it can fund its own growth and value.
  • A cash cow can reinvest free cash to grow its own business - thereby boosting shareholder returns - without sacrificing profitability or turning to shareholders for additional capital.
  • Alternatively, it can return the free cash flow to shareholders through bigger dividend payments or share buybacks.

 
Cash cows tend to be slow-growing, mature companies that dominate their industries. Their strong market share and competitive barriers to entry translate into
  • recurring revenues,
  • high profit margins and
  • robust cash flow.
Compared to younger companies - which tend to reinvest their profits more aggressively to fuel future growth - more mature businesses (with less room for growth) often generate more free cash since the initial capital outlay required to establish their businesses has already been made.

 
Finally, a cash cow can often be a tempting takeover target. If a cash cow company seems like it can no longer use its excess cash to boost value for shareholders, it is likely to attract acquirers that can. (For more on what this means, see The Basics of Mergers and Acquisitions.)

 
The Life of the Cash Cow: Free Cash Flow
To see if a company is worthy of cash-cow status, you of course need to calculate its free cash flow. To do so, you take cash from operations and subtract capital expenditures for the same period:

Free Cash Flow = Cash Flow from Operations - Capital Expenditure

 

 
(For more on calculating free cash flow, see Free Cash Flow: Free, But Not Always Easy.)

 
The more free cash the company produces the better. A good rule of thumb is to look for companies with free cash flow that is more than 10% of sales revenue.

 
Consumer products giant Procter & Gamble (PG), for example, fits the cash cow mold. Procter & Gamble's brand name power and its dominant market share have given it its cash-generating power. Take a look at the company's Form 10-K 2004 Annual Report's (filed on Sept 9, 2004) Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows (scroll to sec. 39, p.166). You'll see that the company consistently generated high free cash flows - these even exceeded its reported net income: at end-2004, Procter & Gamble's free cash flow was $7.34 billion (operating cash flow - capital expenditure = $9.36B - $2.02B), or more than 14% of its $51.4 billion sales revenue (net sales on the Consolidated Statements of Earnings). In 2004, PG produced real cash for its shareholders - a lot of it.

 
Cows That Stand Apart from the Herd: Price and Efficiency
A Low Cash Flow Multiple
Once you've spotted a cash cow stock, is it worth buying? For starters, look for companies with a low free cash flow multiple: simply, divide the company's stock price (more precisely, its market capitalization) by its underlying free cash flow. With that calculation, you can compare how much cash power the share price buys - or, conversely, you see how much investors pay for one dollar of free cash flow.

 
To find PG's free cash flow multiple, we'll look at its stock price on the day it filed its 2004 10-K form, which was Sept 9, 2004. On that day, the stock closed at $56.09 (see PG's trading quote that day on Investopedia's stock research resource). With about 2.5 billion shares outstanding, Procter & Gamble's market value was about $140.2 billion.

 
So, at the financial year-end 2004, PG was trading at about 19 times its current free cash flow ($140.2 billion market value divided by 2004 free cash flow of $7.34 billion). By comparison, direct competitor Unilever traded at about 25 times free cash flow, suggesting that Procter & Gamble was reasonably priced.

 
Free cash flow multiples are a good starting point for finding reasonably priced cash cows. But be careful:
  • sometimes a company will have a temporarily low free cash flow multiple because its share price has plummeted due to a serious problem.
  • Or its cash flow may be erratic and unpredictable.
  • So, take care with very small companies and those with wild performance swings.

 
High Efficiency Ratios
Besides looking for low free cash flow multiples, seek out attractive efficiency ratios. An attractive return on equity (ROE) can help you ensure that the company is reinvesting its cash at a high rate of return.

 
Return on Equity = (Annual Net Income / Average Shareholders' Equity)

 
You can find net income (also known as "net earnings") on the income statement (also known as "statement of earnings"), and shareholders' equity appears near the bottom of a company's balance sheet.

 
On this front, PG performed exceedingly well. The company's 2004 net earnings was $6.5 billion - see the Consolidated Statement of Earnings p.35 (p.161 in the PDF) on the 10-K - and its shareholders' equity was $17.28 billion - see the Consolidated Balance Sheets p.37 (p.163 in the PDF). That means ROE amounted to nearly 38%. In other words, Procter & Gamble was able to milk 38 cents worth of profits from each dollar invested by shareholders. (For more on evaluating this metric, see Keep Your Eyes On The ROE.)

 
To double check that the company is not using debt leverage to give ROE an artificial boost, you may also want to examine return on assets (ROA). (For more on this topic, see Understanding The Subtleties Of ROA Vs ROE.)

 
ROA = Return on Assets = (Annual Net Income / Total Assets)

 
Turning again to Procter & Gamble's 2004 Consolidated Statement of Earnings and Balance Sheets, you'll see that the company delivered an impressive 11.4% ROA (net earnings / total assets = $6.5B / $57.05B). An ROA higher than 5% is normally considered a solid performance for most companies. Procter & Gamble's ROA should have reassured investors that it was doing a good job of reinvesting its free cash flow.

 
Conclusion
Cash cows generate a heap of cash. That's certainly exciting, but not enough for investors. If they provide other attractions, such as high return on equity and return on assets, and if they trade at a reasonable price, then cash cows are worth a closer look.

 
by Ben McClure, (Contact Author | Biography)

 
Ben is director of McClure & Co., an independent research and consulting firm that specializes in investment analysis and intelligence. Before founding McClure & Co., Ben was a highly-rated European equities analyst at London-based Old Mutual Securities.

 

 
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/05/cashcow.asp

Thursday 17 December 2009

When Good Customers Become Bad Bill Payers

When Good Customers Become Bad Bill Payers

By CAITLIN KELLY
Published: December 16, 2009

When credit markets seized up more than a year ago, many small businesses were caught flat-footed. Their clients were not paying, or were paying more slowly, and the owners were left emotionally stressed and financially damaged.


Cindy White, whose ribbon knitted jackets sell for upward of $800 in fashion boutiques, says she’s reluctant to press nonpayers too hard. “They’re my bread and butter,” she said.

But after the initial shock wore off, those owners have come up with a variety of ways to make sure they do get paid.


The National Federation of Independent Business, which has 350,000 members, signed up 200 members for a Web seminar on collections, said Karen Harned, executive director for the organization’s small-business legal center. “This is always a big issue for small-business owners.”


Arne Salkin, an account executive with Transworld Systems, a 39-year-old national collections agency, said the problem was felt by owners in an array of businesses. “Our clients include cigarette wholesalers, pest management companies, nursing homes and private day schools,” he said


With 150 offices and 75,000 customers across the United States, Transworld sends out customized demand letters, he said. Its customers, most of them small businesses, pay $750 for a series of five letters asking for payment, each escalating in intensity. Typically, they are sent out every two weeks, matching a standard pay period.


This system worked, in one instance, for David Neal, assistant corporate controller for Hoover Treated Wood Products, a lumber wholesaler in Thomson, Ga., when a client owing $15,000 paid the entire amount after receiving two letters. “I was shocked,” Mr. Neal said. “We were very surprised that it worked.”


But another client — a longtime customer, Mr. Neal said — was in arrears for $45,000, ignored all five letters and then went out of business in late October. “It will have to be written off,” he said.


That is painful for a low-margin industry like his, which typically bills within 15 days and in which 95 percent of clients pay promptly, Mr. Neal said. His firm typically has $4.5 million a week in receivables, he said, and payments started slowing in November 2008.


Geoffrey Wilson, owner of 352 Media, a 10-year-old Web development firm in Gainesville, Fla., lost $165,000 in early 2008 when three clients did not pay. The three firms were start-ups, he said, two in Florida, one in Michigan.


“It was devastating,” he said. “It damaged our cash flow and really hurt us.” The company, with major companies like Microsoft and American Express, did not have to lay off any of its 40 employees, but the experience left scars, Mr. Wilson said.


“It makes you really angry,” he said. “These were clients we had extensive interactions with over several months, sometimes with as many as 50 meetings. It felt very personal. Suddenly you have to threaten them, sue them.”


Today, Mr. Wilson is much more cautious about accepting new clients and is clear from the outset about payment terms — 33 percent upfront, raised from 25 percent in August 2008. Clients are now classified as standard or preferred, the latter being firms with 15 employees and at least two years in business. Standard clients must pay in full before material is delivered, and the business owner will be asked for a personal guarantee, he said.


Some customers are newly candid about their own financial woes, “which we’d never seen before,” he said. “They’ve become very truthful. As a business owner, I really appreciate their honesty. It allows us to better plan our situation. I need an accurate understanding of what’s coming in instead of having a client simply go silent.”


Lisa Brock, head of Brock Communications in Tampa, Fla., is taking a personal approach to managing late payers, recently visiting the chief executives of two local clients to negotiate payment. Now, more than ever, Ms. Brock said, she wants to know whom she is dealing with before entering into any business deal. A free consultation allows her to decide if a client’s values match hers. If so, she delves deeply into their references. “We’ve done more of this recently than in the 14 years we’ve been in business,” she said. “There are a number of ways to check people out: annual reports, a Dun & Bradstreet report, ask for personal and professional references.”


Cindy White, whose 11-year-old company manufactures knitted ribbon jackets that are sold in 40 high-end boutiques nationwide for $800 to $1,000, has been owed $5,000 for six months from several clients, forcing her to lay off employees. She has also fallen behind in the rent on her Phoenix design studio. “I have a lot of stores out there who owe me money, but they’re my bread and butter. You don’t want to upset them by suing or sending out collection letters.”


The decision whether to hold back or escalate demands for payment was made for her recently after a seven-year client, a store that closed, refused to communicate with her and did not pay for the jackets she had shipped. “I was furious,” Ms. White said. “This was a store I had a longstanding relationship with.”


Ever since, she said, “I have been on the phone every few days with all the stores that owe me money, just keeping tabs and making sure they are still viable.” She said she is hopeful that the economy will come back, and “I am willing to work with them because they are my lifeblood.”


Such attentiveness is necessary, agreed Ms. Brock. “I look at our profit and loss statements biweekly.” She advises scrutinizing client lists to predict potential trouble spots. “Even having two slow payers is significant.”


When a client refuses to pay, last-ditch options include
  • hiring a collections agency — which typically recoup in full only 11 percent of the time
  • hiring a collections lawyer, who may claim one-third of what they recover, or
  • filing a case in small-claims court. Joshua Friedman, a collections lawyer in Beverly Hills, Calif., said his business had been booming since last fall, with clients coming to him “in every field you can imagine.”


“Sometimes people can’t pay. Sometimes it’s a matter of straight-out fraud, where buyers are not doing enough due diligence. People are desperate to do the deal,” he said. Mr. Friedman takes on only cases worth more than $10,000.


“I try to resolve everything without filing a suit,” he said. His success rate is still only 20 percent, he warned. “My clients know better than I do if the client is really likely to settle.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/17/business/17markets.html?ref=business

Sunday 21 June 2009

Calculating Cashflow and Cashflow Planning

Calculating Cashflow:

Normally, the main sources of cash inflows to a business are
  • receipts from sales,
  • increases in bank loans,
  • proceeds of share issues and asset disposals, and
  • other income such as interest earned.

Cash outflows include
  • payments to suppliers and staff,
  • capital and interest repayments for loans,
  • dividends,
  • taxation and
  • capital expenditure.

Net cash flow is the difference between the inflows and outflows within a given period.

  • A projected cumulative positive net cash flow over several periods highlights the capacity of a business to generate surplus cash and, conversely,
  • a cumulative negative cash flow indicates the amount of additional cash required to sustain the business.

Cashflow planning:

Cashflow planning entails

  • forecasting and tabulating all significant cash inflows relating to sales, new loans, interest received etc. and
  • then analyzing in detail the timing of expected payments relating to suppliers, wages, other expenses, capital expenditure, loan repayments, dividends, tax, interest payments etc.
  • The difference between the cash in- and out-flows within a given period indicates the net cash flow.
  • When this net cash flow is added to or subtracted from opening bank balances, any likely short-term bank funding requirements can be ascertained.
If you need to produce regularly-updated cashflow projections, have a look at Cashflow Plan, our range of fully-integrated cashflow planners which generate projections for 12 months ahead and incorporate a roll-forward facility to simplify updating of projections. Details and free/trial version downloads.

http://www.planware.org/cashflowforecast.htm

Tuesday 26 May 2009

Valuation of Cash Flows from Stocks

Valuation of Cash Flows from Stocks

Stocks have value only because of the potential cash flows that investors receive. These cash flows can come from any distribution (such as dividends or capital gains realized on sale) that stockholders expect to receive from their share of ownership of the firm, and it is by forecasting and valuing these expected future cash flows that one can judge the investment value of shares.

The value of any asset is determined by the discounted value of all expected future cash flows.

Future cash flows from assets are DISCOUNTED because cash received in the future is not worth as much as cash received in the present. The reasons for discounting are:

1. the innate TIME PREFERENCES of most individuals to enjoy their consumption today rather than wait for tomorrow,

2. PRODUCTIVITY, which allows funds invested today to yield a higher return tomorrow, and

3. INFLATION, which reduces the future purchasing power of cash received in the future.

4. UNCERTAINTY associated with the magnitude of future cash flows.

These factors 1, 2, and 3 also apply to both stocks and bonds and are the foundation of the theory of interest rates. Factor 4 applies primarily to the cash flows from equities.

The fundamental sources of stock valuation are the dividends and earnings of firms.

Friday 24 April 2009

Capital-intensive and Capital-hungry companies

CAPITAL SUFFICIENCY

Capital-hungry companies are sometimes hard to detect, but there are a few obvious signs.

Companies in capital-intensive industries, such as manufacturing, transportation, or telecommunications, are likely suspects.

Here are a few indicators.

1. Share buybacks

The number of shares outstanding can be a real simple indicator of a capital hungry company. A company using cash to retire shares - if acting sensibly - is telling you that it generates more capital than it needs. On the other hand, if you look at a company like IBM, ROE has grown substantially, and massive share buybacks are a major reason.

Warning! : When evaluating share buybacks, make sure to look at actual shares outstanding. Relying on company news releases alone can be misleading. Companies also buy back shares to support employee incentive programs or to accumulate shares for an acquisition. Such repurchases may be okay but aren't the kind of repurchases that increase return on equity for remaining owners. (Comment: to take a look at HaiO share buyback.)

2. Cash flow ratio

Is cash flow from operations enough to meet investing requirements (capital assets being the main form of investment) and financing requirements (in this case, the repayment of debt)?

If not, it's back to the capital markets. This figure is pretty elusive unless you have - and study - statements of cash flow.

3. Lengthening asset cycles

If accounts receivable collection periods and inventory holding periods are lengthening (number of days' sales in accounts receivable and inventory), that forewarns the need for more capital.

4. Working capital

A company requiring steady increases in workng capital to support sales requires, naturally, capital. Working capital is capital.

Friday 26 December 2008

Dividends to be frozen as earnings decline

Dividends to be frozen as earnings decline

Katherine Jimenez December 18, 2008
Article from: The Australian
A FREEZE on dividends is set to sweep across parts of corporate Australia, as company earnings and cash flows come under pressure.
Tony McGrath, chairman of corporate advisory and insolvency firm McGrathNicol, said that few public companies had cut dividends so far, but that would change soon.
"We will see that because earnings will decline but, more importantly, cash flow will be under pressure," he said.
"With the challenge of managing your debt load, why do you want to leak some of your cash flow to your dividends at this moment?"
The large volume of corporate loans due to mature in 2009 will add to the pressure.
A recent report by rating agency Fitch Ratings showed that the 2009 calendar year would produce a "maturity hump" of $3.4 billion worth of maturing commercial-mortgage-backed securities.
"Cash flow isn't something that boards normally have too much focus on," Mr McGrath said.
"I would suggest to you that that focus on cash flow is now amplified."
There would be pressure on the payment of dividends among large public companies, he said.
They would need to juggle the option of paying a dividend "versus debt retirement, versus the dangers of undertaking capital raisings", he said.
"I think all those questions need be considered by the boards of companies facing refinancing deadlines."
Mr McGrath, who has nearly 25 years of experience ni restructuring and insolvency, has a better picture than most of the state of corporate Australia.
His firm is currently the receiver for ABC Learning and the administrator of Allco Finance Group.
The firm was also called in this year by Australian banks to prepare accounts on troubled shopping centre owner, Centro Properties Group.
Mr McGrath said the economic conditions would get tougher in the next six months and warned that there may be more corporate failures.
Property, retail and mining are all expected to come under pressure.
"We are going to see both commercial and residential property face downward adjustments, even more downward adjustments than they've had to date," he said.
"I think you will find the valuation community is probably one step behind where the market is at, at the moment, because they need evidence ... before they can change values."
The overall economic outlook would depend on how US reforms fed through. "If that starts to provide some bite to the US economy, I think it's quite possible that things could start to look at bit brighter in the next six to 12 months," he said.
"The problem at the moment is people don't quite know where the bottom is. Until we get to that point, it's a bit difficult to look forward."