Showing posts with label greed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label greed. Show all posts

Sunday 28 August 2011

Market Emotion Cycle


EMOTION AND COMMOTION



Market Emotion Cycle
 
(click for larger picture)



Fear and Greed tend to rule at market tops and bottoms. In the movie “Wall Street” Gordon Gekko says Greed is Good as the market soars higher. In market parlance the opposite of Greed is “Fear” which is bad for Investments. The market has a tendency to scare people out at the bottom and suck them in at the top. The market emotion cycle sees optimism turn to excitement, the thrill leads to euphoria and “Greed” slipping to anxiety, denial and “Fear” followed by desperation panic, capitulation, despondency ,depression, disgust and doubt. Globalization is upon us with what happens half way around the globe reported immediately and reflected in equity and bond market prices with virtually no delay. The problem is the global attitude influenced by events turns cold and hot with every movement. 

The international investor attitudes changes in sync with yesterday’s news reports. It is necessary to filter out news & views and find a comfortable way to invest through thick and thin, good and bad, bullish and bearish. The World of investments has become 24/7 with no down time to reflect on issues before human emotion has reacted. This has caused cycles of “Market Emotion & Commotion”. The rollercoaster of emotional reactions are addictive and contagious moving from one time zone to the next. Now is the time to carefully choose individual stocks based on their merit and not by recent popularity. 

There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. 



Greed, fear and indecision


Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.


Friday 19 November 2010

The Mood of Investors



Airtime: Fri. Nov. 19 2010
Sharon Sager of UBS Private Wealth Management tells CNBC's Maria Bartiromo how she's developing strategies for clients who have become more conservative.


Related:
Why Retail Investors Still Avoid Stocks

Saturday 19 June 2010

Wealth and happiness from the power of 10

Wealth and happiness from the power of 10

Marcus Padley
June 19, 2010 - 3:00AM

You don't have to be a genius to work out that if only we could avoid the losses, we would all be winners. The first rule of making it is not losing it. So here are my top 10 tips on not losing money.

1 Inside information. A colleague has professionally traded all his life. It's what he does. He says: ''If I had never been given any inside information … I would be a million pounds better off than I am today.''

2 IPOs. The golden rule of IPOs is that if it's any good, it won't be offered to you. If you get offered it … then you don't want it.

3 Pretending to be Warren Buffett. The concept that Buffett can be emulated has cost investors more than it has ever made them. No one has ever managed to replicate his performance. The idea that you can is the biggest drawcard the equity market has and it is a lie. We all keep buying the dream.

4 Gurus. Go to any rainforest, discover any tribe and you will find them huddling under some concept of god and creed. It is a human need to be able to answer the unanswerable questions and we do it by deifying someone or something. In our search for answers to the stockmarket's unanswerable questions, we credit our commentators with vastly more powers than they could possibly deserve or possess. And dangerously, he who guesses the boldest guesses the longest.

5 Greed. The biggest killer of them all. Approaching the stockmarket with greed is like running onto a battlefield in bright orange. We'll get you.

6 Leverage. The mechanism of greed. Leverage is marketed one way, but it works both ways. You lose much faster as well. That means it only works for some of the time and not all of the time.

It only works when you are right. And with average equity returns after interest, transaction costs, inflation and tax of less than zero, man, you had better be right, and right at the right time. You cannot habitually use leverage to ''invest''. Only trade and trade at the right time, not all the time. That's a big ask for someone with a day job.

7 Confidence. What's the core skill of the finance industry?

I'll tell you: it's marketing. And oh, do we have some material to work with. The finance industry is never short of a success story to free your wallet from your pocket. But we cannot all be successful, and of course we aren't. But the concept of success from mere participation in the financial markets is sold and endures because of one convenient fact of life. Crappy cars and small houses don't attract attention. The winners stay, and we raise them up. The losers, conveniently, go away. Thank goodness for that. Imagine how much product we'd sell if we raised them up.

8 Expectations. The root of all happiness. The root of all unhappiness. Expect the unexpectable and expect the inevitable. Best you expect the expectable.

9 Laziness. The nucleus of many of the stockmarket's very large and public losses. There has been more money lost through laziness than through effort - in particular, from putting your future in the hands of financial products you haven't taken the time to understand (Opes Prime, Storm Financial), from ''investing'' without investigating (otherwise known as gambling), from relying on someone else's grand declaration rather than taking responsibility yourself. Let's get this straight. There is no easy route to riches in the stockmarket and there is no free lunch, so participation without effort is not enough.

10 Life. My mum used to say there are three foundations for spiritual and financial happiness and success: your relationship, your job and where you live. Get one of those wrong, and all three will go wrong. Note there's no mention of the stockmarket in there. The stockmarket is not life. It is a side issue. The biggest financial decisions you will make in your life have nothing to do with the stockmarket - such as getting married, getting divorced, having kids, investing in your home, committing to your career or your business. These are the biggest financial decisions you'll ever make. Focus on them. The stockmarket is not a priority.

Marcus Padley is a stockbroker with Patersons Securities and the author of the daily stockmarket newsletter Marcus Today.



This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/business/wealth-and-happiness-from-the-power-of-10-20100618-ymsd.html

Thursday 17 June 2010

The VIX Indicator: Beat the Crowds to Big Profits with the Ultimate "Fear Gauge"

The VIX Indicator:

Beat the Crowds to Big Profits with the Ultimate "Fear Gauge"


June 17th, 2010

Investors are motivated by two things and two things only: Fear and Greed. It's just that simple.

So more often than not, investors turn quite bullish when they think a stock is headed higher and quite bearish when they fear that all is lost. The trouble with this strategy is that during these extremes in sentiment they often lose their shirts.

While conventional financial theory suggests that markets behave rationally, not accounting for the emotional aspect of the trade often leads to the wrong entry and exit points.

And believe me when I tell you this: It's hard to turn a buck on the Street when you're constantly getting one or both of them wrong.

That's why successful traders often rely on the VIX indicator to assess whether or not the current market sentiment is excessively bullish or bearish... which helps them plot their next move.

You see, the VIX is a contrarian indicator. That is, it tells you whether or not the markets have reached an extreme position. If so, that tends to be a sure sign that the markets are about to stage reversal.

The idea here is that if the wide majority believes that one bet is such a sure thing, they pile on. But by the time that happens, the market is usually ready to turn the other way.

Of course, "the crowd" hardly ever gets its right.

It's counter-intuitive, but it's true nearly all of the time - especially in volatile markets.

And that's why the VIX indicator is a trader's best friend right now.

Saturday 6 February 2010

Factors influencing decision making process-Stock Market

Factors influencing decision making process-Stock Market
Nits | Feb 05, 2010 | 0 comments


Factors influencing Decisions:
A Quest for the proper course of Decision-making in Share-investments

It has been seen for a long time that human being is not always rational and his decisions are not always objective. For instance, if one watches share market, technically the price of a stock should be reflection of its P/E, P/CF & P/BV values, but such is not the case most of times, because the prices of indices are also governed by various aspect and factors of human mindset- expectations, sentiments and excitement to name a few.

This unpredictability of human behavior has led to emergence of a new field in psychology termed as ‘Behavioral Finance’. Behavioral Finance is the study of roles of behavioral factors in the field of finance, especially investment

It is well-known fact that intelligence is one of the important factors, besides hard work and perseverance for achieving success in life. It is generally expected from an intelligent individual to perceive and understand situation properly, think rationally and reason out everything, before making any decision. Clarity of goal, a well-thought strategy to achieve the same, moderate level of motivation, a disciplined behavior with flexibility to reassess the strategies with new developments is certain other requirements to achieve success. This is applied everywhere, in all decisions and goals including individual’s investment decisions as well.

But since human beings do not live in isolation, therefore there are other factors as well which influence his interpersonal relations, and consequently his decisions. Rationality in a man’s decisions or behavior is not always seen as to be expected from them. For instance, people do make different decisions in the two similar situations or behave similarly in two different situations depending upon their emotive state of mind. Thus, emotion plays a vital role in influencing his behavior and decisions. This becomes more apparent in case of investment-related decisions when taken in relation to the share market.

But debate does not end just here. Human beings are not just born for investment; they have other things to do as well. There are numerous occasions when people make mistakes in investment-decisions mostly under the influence of emotions and stress. It is not possible for a person to be totally immune to his emotions, but once he is aware of the risks involved with emotional instability, one can limit the losses. In this context, fear and greed are the most well-known emotions. There is tendency in human-beings to make more money in short time and this tends him to invest in share-market, even when it is at boom. So when market is bearish, the emotion of fear replaces greed. Human-beings love profit, but hate loss even more. A slightly negative indication brings in a lot of negative emotions and consequently, fear comes in. Initially, investor holds position (while rationally, if he wants to quit, he should book losses at that time only) and once the market’s bottoming out tendency to quit gets bigger (though if investor has been rational, he should have waited for a little longer duration and should have stuck to his position). In this way, it would not be wrong to say that not only fear and greed have negative effect on rational thinking, but they also have adverse effects on the long-term strategies of individual. These two unfortunate passions bring in impulsiveness in the individual’s character and continue to press him to take irrational decisions.

Further, Defense-mechanism of denial used by a person to save his self esteem and his ego are also significant factors which prove dangerous in the long run. An investor is, most of the times, adamant to accept that he has made wrong decision. So, he sticks to his decision and end up holding his loosing position longer than what should have been. The anticipation of ‘being wrong’ by any investor, cuts his losses and enables him to take decisions which help him to recover the loss.

Another aspect of Defense-mechanism of denial is its effect on analytical reasoning. Under emotional state of denial, an individual perceives selectively. He tends to emphasize data and information which confirm his position and viewpoint. It also restricts the individual to rationally analyze any new adverse information. Sometimes, it also generates tendency to overemphasize any subtle good indicator and underemphasize the bad indicators, and so, compel the investor to continue with the loosing position, thus aggravating loses.

These factors always influence the decisions of an individual, but the degree of their influence differs. Now, it depends on the individual how he (or she) manipulates these factors for profit. A good investor is one who not only comes out of loss by applying logical thinking but also makes it profitable one. Moreover, one should not stick to his decisions , if situations have changed. The people with low self-esteem and low EQ stick with their decision and apply defense mechanism. False impression of hope leads them to further losses. They even set aside the direction of necessary indicators.

So, to be a good investor, the proper way to act is not simply to book profit at appropriate time, but also to minimize losses in the adverse situations.

’Never Say Die’

Read more:
http://ansblog.com/2010/02/factors-influencing-decision-making-process/#ixzz0ehyAKUQA
http://ansblog.com/2010/02/factors-influencing-decision-making-process/

Friday 27 November 2009

"Make Hay While the Sun Shines": When Greed leads to Heavy Losses

An illustrative story.

Rick found out the hard way that greed leads to heavy losses, not gains.

At age 40, Rick had been in an unfortunate accident that would prevent him from ever working agin.  To compensate for his loss of future earnings, he was awarded a lump sum of approximately $4 million.  In 1996, Rick's attorney recommended that he seek out a financial planner to manage his money.  Rick's goals were to set up an investment portfolio that would provide him with current income of $8,000 per month, and an income that would keep pace with inflation over the balance of his lifetime.  Because he depended on income from his assets for his sole support, he wanted to be very careful with his money.

Lump sum: $4 million
Current income:  $8,000 per month

As the stock market advanced unabated, Rick started to listen to the siren's song of the easy money to be made.  He told his planners that he wanted to get more aggressive with his accounts.  The high returns and easy money that the markets were offering were just too good to pass up.  He acknowledged that he had told his planners that he needed to be conservative before, but now he felt that he should "make hay while the sun shines!"  In other words, he perceived that there was little risk involved in getting more aggressive.

Rick did not need to chase high returns because his asset base was sufficient to allow him to pursue a lower risk and return strategy.  Most important, he would always be okay so long as he kept his capital base intact to produce the income he required.  His planners counseled Rick to stick with his conservative income and growth plan because he could not earn back the money he might lose.  But by 1999, the siren song proved too much for him.  He abandoned his investment strategies and moved his entire portfolio into high-flying tech stocks just before the speculative bubble burst.

The ensuing "Tech Wreck" shattered Rick's financial security along with that of millions of other investors.  Greed had won again.  Rick's more aggressive investment strategy that had looked like a sure path to untold wealth became the wrecking ball that destroyed his financial security.  With losses that averaged in excess of 70 percent, Rick's capital base was decimated, and with it, the engine of his income production.

To add insult to injury, the income strategies Rick abandoned actually increased in value.  With the huge stock market declines, investors fled to the relative safety that income-producing investments provided.  Bond prices increased as did the prices of many high-yielding dividend-paying stocks.

People are risk takers or risk avoiders by nature.

As market rises, investors tend to forget that risk is a four letter word, greed takes over, and those who once thought themselves in the conservative camp abandon caution in search of higher returns and what looks to be easy money to be made. 

But an investor's tolerance for risk is part of his or her basic personality, and tolerance for risk rarely changes.  People are risk takers or risk avoiders by nature. 

Investors and the markets are said to be rational, but most people are heavily influenced by their emotions.  The primal emotions of fear or greed often cause investors to play the loser's game of buying high and selling low.

Sunday 18 October 2009

Greed isn't good– it's dangerous

Greed isn't good– it's dangerous
In today's extract from his new book, Roger Bootle looks at the future of capitalism

By Roger Bootle
Published: 3:45PM BST 15 Oct 2009

Comments 6 | Comment on this article

The free-market vigilantes are already rushing to defend the unfettered market system. Their defence is based on one or other of three arguments. First, the market solution is to let failing financial firms fail. If the state intervenes to stop this, the blame for the resulting mess cannot be laid at the door of the market system. Second, banking has been a heavily regulated activity. The regulators have failed in their job. Third, the monetary policy authorities should have paid more attention to the growth of money and credit and the resulting inflation of the property market bubble.

In this way, they try to argue that what seems on the face of it to be a failure of markets is in fact a failure of government. So the solution, they say, is not less freedom for markets but more.

These people are dangerous. The idea of letting the financial system implode and then waiting for the market to bring spontaneous, healthy revival out of the wreckage might read well on the pages of a book, but in the real world it would bring human misery on a gigantic scale. In today's society, people simply will not tolerate it. If that is what the market system is about then they will have none of it; and rightly so.

Certainly there were mistakes made over regulation, but the answer surely involves not lighter regulation but for it to be tougher and tighter (although not more extensive). Similarly, on monetary policy major mistakes were made, but that was because not enough allowance was given for the ability of the markets and private financial institutions to get things horrendously wrong. That redoubles, not reduces, the weakness of unfettered financial markets.

What is needed now is not a rejection of capitalism but rather a radical reform of some of its institutions and practices. In a way, this is nothing new. What we now think of as capitalism did not emerge fully formed in an act of creation, but rather evolved. So why should it have stopped its process of evolution now?

We have been trying to live comfortably in a completely new era with a system of controls fashioned for an age long past. This is not the end of capitalism but the beginning of a new phase of it, a phase in which it is not controlled or suppressed, but channelled and marshalled, rather like a great river whose course is managed.

Such a thought will offend those who tend the flame of the free market ideal. But an effective market system is like democracy: how it operates in practice can be very different from how it works in theory. Effective market systems and effective democracies are fuzzy. In both cases there is a theoretically pure version that appears to embody the essence of the thing, whereas in practice the presence of this thing alone often sees the essence escape.

The essence of democracy, you might think, is free elections. Yet it is comparatively easy to establish elections that are free in a system that is democratic in only the most tenuous sense. For markets, it is a similar story. Paradoxically, markets need the state to keep them on the straight and narrow. They even need the state to keep them competitive.

Capitalism always throws up problems and failings. This is neither surprising nor a fatal criticism. Society has to find a way of either living with them or correcting them. However, as capitalism evolves, so the nature of its failings and problems changes. So too must be the way in which society copes with them.

The Great Implosion has laid bare several different sorts of failing. First, it has revealed just how fragile the financial system is. Second, it has demonstrated the markets' excessive risk-taking. Third, it has shown how bloated the financial sector has become. Fourth, it has exhibited a failure of the market with regard to the setting of executive remuneration in general, and pay in the financial sector in particular. Fifth, it has uncovered a deep-seated failure of the corporate system, arising from the separation between owners and managers and the weakness of institutional shareholders in influencing corporate policy.

It is no wonder that these problems have emerged only recently, since it is only since the early 1970s that the financial markets have grown to such size and importance in the economy, that markets have been given free rein, and that large-scale institutional shareholders have become dominant. Moreover, the serious problems for society that would be unleashed by blatant self-interest only burst forth once the combination of deregulation and the doctrine of "greed is good" released them in the 1980s.

But now we know. Greed is dangerous, and the encouragement of it is stupid. In order for society to work efficiently, never mind fairly and cohesively, there has to be a balance between the competitive and co-operative parts of the system. This balance goes right to the heart of human nature.

In many areas, such as health care, education, pollution control and road usage, we need more of the market, not less. But in finance, although we need the market, it must be restricted.

Moreover, financial markets do not offer a blueprint for the whole of society. Society cannot live by greed alone. Even if it can cope perfectly well if some of its members are motivated in this way, it needs millions of people to be motivated by duty, responsibility, and a sense of public purpose. These are feelings that the triumph of unbridled greed in the financial markets threatens to overwhelm. The market was made for man, not man for the market.

Roger Bootle is managing director of Capital Economics and economic adviser to Deloitte. The Trouble with Markets (Nicholas Brealey £18) is available from Telegraph Books for £16 plus £1.25 p&p. Call 0844 871 1515 or go to books.telegraph.co.uk

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/6336861/Greed-isnt-good--its-dangerous.html

Thursday 17 September 2009

Greed and Fear

Thursday, September 17, 2009


Greed and Fear



I have been noting down on my emotions : When I was greedy, when and why? When I was in fear, when and why?



How I survived a nightmare(day-mare, actually)



ZiJin-cw : Yesterday, I queued for 0.148 and it was done. Shouldnt I be jumping for joy after TWICE it shot up above 0.14(my target price) to 0.144 and 0.142, only to see it pullback the next day to go below 0.130?! Should I be relieved that I could sell it at such a "HIGH" price as I saw it plummeted to a low of 0.07 last month?? I was not in joy after I sold it, as I m seeing more upside on it TODAY as gold reaching for 1020. Now, yesterday morning it was at 1005(and even went down to 990 level days ago!!) ... so, I do know it will jump, and placing a 25% increment from the previous closing price, I thought it wont be done(like I dont wish to sell? GREED in play) ... cool. It closed at 0.155. OUCH. Later I wont be surprise if it jumps up another 10-20% to 0.17 level, and breaching new high above 0.20 soon. SHOULDNT I BE in JOY? Hmmm ...



Now, for TWO times when it breached my target price at 0.140 ... I got GREEDY and did not sell it at 0.140(lack of discipline with GREED in play). But, both of the times, it dived below 0.130 the next few trading days. I was cursing myself for not being disciplined. I SHOULD HAVE SOLD IT AT 0.140, I said. As it reached 0.125 level(FEAR in play?), I was kicking myself(in my trading room ... without anyone know about it, and also I do not write about it. This is a confession of a novice trader!) ... and promised to sell it at 0.140 the next time. Yesterday, it breached 0.140 for the third time in as many weeks.



I bought ZiJin-cw at 0.142 with great confidence it will shoot up back to 0.20 level(it dived from 0.16+ to 0.14 level when I decided to buy into it). For first few days, it went up to 0.150. I started to feel confident. I even think of buying more?? GREED in PLAY. But, I did not as that was not in my trading plan. As China markets pullback, ZiJin started to show weakness and back to 0.140 level, and without much problem, going below 0.130 after a week or so!! I do not put a stop-loss, but thought of buying more at 0.120 level.



Yes, it reached 0.120 level ... I was in FEAR and was too stunned to execute my plan? Hello novice trader, you are supposed to follow your plans? I did not. It went back to 0.130 level ... then, HAI YAH, why I didnt buy at 0.120 as planned? It it going to shoot up 0.15 soon!! Yeah, right. Emotions in play ...



Funny, it dived below 0.120 level ... and I was watching it and braved myself : You better buy at 0.10 level or else I will slap you. PIAK. I bought more at 0.10, to avoid being slapped by myself.



FEARS? Wait till you see my face when it went below 0.10, and dived to 0.07 level. I will buy at 0.05 level, I mumbled. Yeah right ... when it really reached 0.05 level, we will be shivering??! I was holding on to 180k units averaging at around 0.12, so at 0.07 ... I m losing almost half of my values. With the expiry date shorten each day, the FEAR is very real. What should I do? As I searching for answers(like looking at my palm lines and the formation of stars above) ... ok, last plunge to 0.05 ... BUY!



It rebounded from 0.07 very quickly back to 0.10 level. PHEW!! What a relieve tho I was still down. As markets in HK recovering, gold price shooting higher to 980 level ... wow. Suddenly there is a great interest in ZiJin. It was shooting like 20% per day. Do the calculations : 0.070 to 0.100, the 0.120. That was just in a week!! It reached my average price. What a relief. Suddenly the FEAR disappear(very fast) and confidence is back. Ok ... I will be VERY glad to clear it at 0.140, I told myself.



Arrghh ... it did reach 0.14 ... ok, I think it will reach higher, say to 0.15?? Then, I started to write about it 2/3 weeks ago, exposing my rollercoaster ride with it. Well, it reached 0.140 TWICE but finally I sold it yesterday as it reached 0.140 again for the third time.



ZiJin breached HKD8 yesterday to close at 8.15, a level never expected in such a short period of time. I started to stalk ZiJin in Feb when it was at HKD3.50 level.



There are so much emotions involved that I was numbed. I m learning to ride on roller-coasters and to numb myself when I trade. But, frankly ... I dont like the emotions in play. I wish I m totally emotionless. Guess I just need to learn and experience more ... I m such a novice. HAHA.



I m trying to be a contrarian but due to lack of discipline, I have not really been doing that. I tend to 'follow the herd', and being slow, I will be slaughtered. The control of emotions is VERY essential and important. Move on after we sell(not looking back with regrets due to greed) ... and hold on after we bought it. Markets up and markets down ... it is the trend that we should TRY to follow. As the saying goes, market ALWAYS win. We buy, it goes down ... we sell, it shoots higher. It is wiser to be longer term investor rather than short-term trader if we could not contain our emotions.



NOTE : The above story is fictional as it is being used to illustrate FEAR and GREED in a novice trader like me and should not be taken seriously.

http://cpteh.blogspot.com/

Wednesday 6 May 2009

When investing in stocks control your greed and fear

Wednesday May 6, 2009
When investing in stocks control your greed and fear

Personal Investing - A column by Ooi Kok Hwa

We need to know who we are in order to do well in stock market investing

THE recent strong market rally caught many investors by surprise again.

Most investors, including some analysts, predicted earlier that it was just a bear market rally. They have been hoping the market will turn down again. Unfortunately, it has been moving up strong without looking back.

For investors who have not invested during the recent low in March 2009, they are getting very worried as they are not benefitting from the recent rally. They may even wonder whether they should jump in now in order not to miss the boat.

Another group of investors, who have managed to catch some stocks at cheap prices during the previous market low, are also facing the dilemma of whether to lock in their gains now or continue to hold on to their gains. Some even regretted selling their stocks too early last month.

We all know that it is very difficult, in fact impossible, to predict stock market movement. Most investment gurus will refuse to time the market.

Howard Kahn and Cary Cooper published a book titled “Stress in the Dealing Room” in 1993. According to their surveys done on 225 dealers, 73.8% of them suffered from fear of “misreading the market.” Most dealers have the same problem of acquiring and handling information.

We believe that in order to do well in stock investing, we need to know ourselves, especially in controlling our emotion on greed and fear.

Due to information overloading, our emotion is highly influenced by the news that we read. Each time we feel that the market is getting bullish and time to buy stock, the overall market will collapse the moment we enter.

On the other hand, the moment we fear that it will drop further and we have decided to cut losses, we will notice the market will recover after that. Most of the time, the prices of stocks that we sold were at the lowest of the recent fall.

In order to control our greed and fear, we need to ask ourselves whether the market has discounted the news that we have received.

For example, many analysts have been bullish lately, having the opinion that the worst may be over for the market based on the recent economic indicators which showed that the overall economy may have stopped contracting or is on its way to recovery.

Nevertheless, the recent strong market rally would have discounted this bullish news. In fact, we need to ask ourselves whether the current stock prices can be supported by the fundamentals for certain listed companies.

In our experience, in most cases, the moment we feel like buying stocks is the best time to sell them while the moment that we feel like selling them is in fact the best time to buy. We can apply this contrarian theory quite successfully in most periods.

Sometimes, if we are taking in too much contradicting information and, as a result, get confused over the market direction, we feel that the best strategy is to stay away from the market until we have a better and clearer picture of the overall market or the economic situation.

We should not be influenced by other opinions.

There are times that we need to follow our heart. Sometimes, our hearts try to warn us from taking hasty investment decisions. However, we refuse to follow our intuition but instead, choosing to get influenced by others or the information that we read and ending up making mistakes.

In conclusion, we need to maintain our concentration.

We should not be led by the market sentiments regardless whether it is on the way up or crashing down fast. We need to go back to the fundamental of economic situation and the companies’ performance and future prospects.

One way to minimise the feeling of regret is to stagger our purchase and selling. We will only know the peak when the market starts turning downwards and vice versa. Therefore, by staggering, we will have an averaging effect rather than taking a one-time hit, especially if it is at the wrong timing.


Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/5/6/business/3838362&sec=business

Friday 17 October 2008

Why do investors lose money in the stock market?

Basically, investors tend to lose money because of the twin evils - "greed' and "fear".

Therefore, a wise investor needs to control himself against greed. Perhaps by cultivating a sense of contentment, an investor would be able to overcome greed. After all, a contented person is able to tell himself, "Well, I have made some profits. Thus, I have made my money work for me. Now is the time for me to sell my shares and put my money in the bank."

Similarly, he also needs to be cool and not lose his nerves when the stock market tumbles. In such a situation, an investor must learn to tell himself, "At least, the buying opportunity has arrived. I have the money and I will buy some undervalued shares and lock them up until the next bull run."

With the aforesaid frame of mind, an investor would be on his way to emerging as a winner in the game of shares investment.

GREED
$2? I'll wait for $3
GREED
$3? I'll wait for $4
FEAR
Market may collapse. $1.50 now? Sell!

Ref:

Making Mistakes in the Stock Market by Wong Yee

http://tradingbursamalaysia.blogspot.com/2008/10/still-falling.html Where is the bottom? Ans: I don't know now but I will tell you when I see signs of bottoming.