Sunday 9 August 2009

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's National Day Message

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's National Day Message


My fellow Singaporeans,

Singapore has had a turbulent and challenging year. In January, dark clouds had gathered all around us. Our economy was hit by the worst storm in our history. Exports went down by a third, and manufacturing too declined sharply, since we produced for world markets. Given this backdrop, we projected GDP to shrink this year by 6% to 9%.

We couldn't have avoided the storm, but we didn't passively resign ourselves to fate. Instead, we mobilized Singaporeans to tackle the crisis together. We brought the Budget forward to January, implemented a Resilience Package, and drew on past reserves to help fund the Special Risk Sharing Initiative and the Jobs Credit.

We are now in a stronger position. The global economic situation has somewhat stabilised. Our measures have cushioned workers from the worst of the storm. Our economy was amongst the worst hit, and yet we still have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world. Singaporeans too have responded resolutely and cohesively. These factors helped the Singapore economy to bounce back strongly in the second quarter. As a result, growth in the first half of the year was -6.5%, a very significant contraction, but less bad than we had feared. Hence we have revised up our growth projection for 2009. Our economy will still shrink, but only by between 4% and 6%.

But it's too early to celebrate. The outlook remains clouded. The advanced economies aren't expected to bounce back soon. Our exports remain much lower than last year, and companies like SIA are still facing very tough conditions. We might see another wave of retrenchments later in the year. So we must stay on guard for more challenges to come.

Beyond this year, we expect the global situation to remain difficult for some time. But the adverse external environment doesn't mean that Singapore cannot grow. We can and must look for new ways to develop and prosper. Opportunities still exist, especially in Asia, but we need all our ingenuity and resourcefulness to find them and exploit them.

Businesses and workers are already adjusting to the new world. Many firms are changing their business processes, finding innovative ways to cut costs and generate revenues, and aggressively seeking out new markets. Workers are taking advantage of the SPUR programme to upgrade their skills and retrain for new fields. The unions are cooperating closely with employers to adapt to the changed conditions, instead of resisting change. We must keep this up.

In the midst of recession, as we tackle the immediate challenges, we must also look to the future. The Economic Strategies Committee is studying how we can transform our economy. The Committee will examine how Singapore can find new opportunities, build new capabilities, sustain balanced growth and overcome our constraints. We are involving the private sector, to gather the best ideas that can enable us to prosper. I am confident the Committee will have good proposals when it reports next year. Our responses in this crisis will ensure that once the US and Europe emerge from their troubles, and the world economy recovers, Singapore will forge ahead again in a dynamic Asia.

Up close, our current difficulties may appear daunting; but we should see them against a longer perspective. It's been 50 years since we attained self-government in 1959. Over this half century, Singapore has encountered many serious challenges - racial riots in the 60s, oil shocks in the 70s, a major recession in the 80s, the Asian Crisis in the 90s, the 9/11 attacks and SARS in this decade. Each time our people have rallied and prevailed, and hence Singapore has continued to thrive and prosper, and has arrived here today.

We didn't start out as one people. Our forefathers were different peoples from different lands, who had come to Singapore to seek better lives for themselves and their children. But our formative years fighting for independence, then striving as a new nation to survive against the odds, brought us all closer together. Each time we were challenged, we responded as one, everyone pulling together and working for the common good. And each success further cemented our cohesion, and helped us to meet the next challenge.

We are doing this again in this crisis. Everyone of us - government and people, employers and unions - is working together, keeping companies viable and competitive, preserving jobs and livelihoods, and enhancing social safety nets like Workfare and ComCare. This crisis may be a severe test, but our history and record give us confidence that we will once again turn it into an opportunity to strengthen our social compact, and upgrade our economy.

We've responded to the outbreak of Influenza A(H1N1) in the same way. We worked hard to delay and slow down the spread of the new virus in Singapore. Our efforts depended not only on the healthcare system and professionals, but also on citizens being vigilant and socially responsible. We bought ourselves precious time to learn more about the virus and gear up our defences.

Whether fighting the recession or the flu, we made sure every Singaporean knows he's not alone, but that the community and country are behind him. So long as you make the effort and do your best, the rest of us will help you to pull through.

This unity is key to our success in many fields. We must work hard to strengthen it, and to bridge potential divides within our society, be it between Singaporeans and new arrivals, between rich and poor, or most fundamental of all, between the different races and religions. We often see ethnic strife and religious conflicts in other countries. This last year alone, we've witnessed the Mumbai terrorist attacks, and the recent bombings in Jakarta. In Singapore we have to respect each other's cultures, practices and beliefs, build trust and harmony between our communities, and gradually enlarge the secular common space which all groups share. In this way, we can become one people, one nation, one Singapore.

We are well placed to deal with these challenges. We are not just pursuing economic growth, or strengthening our society, or remaking our city, but creating a new Singapore.

We are improving our living environment, and developing better amenities for the community, more green spaces and park connectors. We are creating more avenues for students to advance and opening up more opportunities to go to university. We are building new hospitals, improving step-down care, and making healthcare more accessible and affordable to all. We are also revitalising the city - upgrading housing estates all over the island, refreshing our downtown into a premier shopping and entertainment venue, and creating a new skyline around Marina Bay, which is taking shape day by day.

My fellow Singaporeans, in the half century since we attained self-government, we've been tested many times, but we've also created many possibilities for ourselves. Let us stand shoulder-to-shoulder, so that whether it rains or shines, we can work together and achieve the best results for Singapore. This is how we build a better and more vibrant nation, and make Singapore a special place that we are all proud to call our home.

I wish all Singaporeans a very Happy National Day.

Fundamentals driving oil prices higher: BP economist

Fundamentals driving oil prices higher: BP economist
OIL prices are poised to climb higher in the coming years as consumption by industrialising nations are expected to outstrip that of the developed countries, predicted BP chief Asia economist Dr Zhang Chi.

Presenting the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy report at a briefing yesterday, Dr Zhang pointed out that consumption of coal by industrialising nations have already surpassed that of Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries since 1998. And last year, these developing countries have also caught up with consumption on the natural gas front.

Dr Zhang believes it is a matter of time before developing countries will surpass OECD ones in terms of oil consumption.

When this happens "in the next few years", it will put pressure on oil prices to move higher, he said.

"Oil prices are affected by marginal demand ... and in the long term, the trend will put pressure on the margin and it depends on whether that price will bring in more oil on the supply side," he said.

Already, the primary energy consumption of non-OECD countries, including China, has - for the first time - exceeded OECD consumption last year. China alone accounted for nearly three-quarters of global growth in energy consumption, said BP in its report. World energy consumption is measured by the consumption of various fuels such as oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydro power.

When asked how important are speculators in the energy markets, Dr Zhang said: "The fundamental drives the direction, the speculation may add on and follow that trend, rather than determining the trend."

"If you look at last year's fuel price volatility, coal prices were more volatile than oil (prices), but nobody was saying somebody was speculating in coal.

"So, in a sense, speculators look at the same data that we look at - they are not stupid - they look at the fundamental supply and demand trends and then they make their bets," he said.

Sembcorp Industries Q2 profit edges up

Q2 profit edges up

Marine, utilities units help earn conglomerate $142m

by Kelvin Chow
05:55 AM Aug 07, 2009

NET profit of Mainboard-listed conglomerate, Sembcorp Industries (SCI), edged-up 3 per cent to $141.9 million for its second quarter, thanks to the higher earnings from its utilities and rig building divisions.

In comparison, SCI recorded a $138.2 million net profit in the same three-month period a year ago.

However, group revenue fell to $2.43 billion in the same quarter from $2.58 billion a year ago due to lower contributions from its environment and industrial parks business. The group said yesterday that its utilities and marine business segments accounted for 94 per cent of total profits. Profit contribution from its utilities segment saw an 11 per cent increase to $47.9 million while its marine business contributed $85.9 million, up 9 per cent.

Mr Tang Kin Fei, SCI's chief executive said: "Sembcorp's healthy performance in this difficult global business environment reflects the underlying strength of our businesses." For example, its marine business has a net orderbook of $7.9 billion with completions and deliveries until early 2012. "Long-term fundamentals driving future deepwater activities continue to be strong," Mr Tang said in a statement.

Sembcorp also said that while global economic and financial environment appears to have improved, its outlook remains uncertain. However, the company said that it is "committed to deliver satisfactory operating results for the year."

DBS bad debt spikes

DBS bad debt spikes

by Kelvin Chow
05:55 AM Aug 08, 2009

DESPITE enjoying record revenue of $1.79 billion in the three months ended June, DBS Group Holdings' performance was marred by a sharp increase in bad debts and provisions, giving cause for concern among several analysts.

On Friday, South-east Asia's largest lender said it made $466 million of allowances for doubtful debts in the second quarter, up a whopping eight times from $56 million a year ago.

This came as its non-performing loans (NPL) ratio, a measurement of loans close to or in default, surged to 2.8 per cent from 1.4 per cent. As a result, second quarter net profit fell 15 per cent on-year to $552 million.

To Fox-Pitt Kelton banking analyst Brian Hunsaker, the results show DBS is "still struggling a little bit with asset quality. It would suggest that they've still got some volatility to cope with before things will look better", he told Today.

Some investors sold off DBS shares after the results were released. The stock closed at $12.84, down 3.5 per cent - outpacing the Straits Times Index's decline of 2 per cent.

Among the three domestic banks, DBS recorded the biggest increase in NPL in the second quarter, UBS Investment Research banking analyst Jaj Singh said in a report on Friday, "surprised" by the spike in provisions.

DBS explained during a briefing that the NPL increase came primarily from "exceptional" exposures to shipping and Middle East corporates and institutions.

When asked if DBS had seen the peak in its NPL ratio, chief financial officer Chng Sok Hui replied: "I think there are signs that the credit pressure has already eased."

The NPL ratios of DBS' core markets, which are Singapore and Hong Kong, are also improving, she added.

Still, Ms Daphne Roth, head of Asian equity research at ABN Amro Private Bank, told Bloomberg: "Non-performing loans are still something that we're watching very closely because even though we seem to be past the worst, unemployment could still pick up."

DBS chairman Koh Boon Hwee, too, believed that for Asia, "the worst is over" - echoing views expressed earlier this week by his peers at United Overseas Bank and OCBC.

The second quarter's broad-based revenue growth - which surpassed the previous record high of $1.6 billion recorded in the first quarter - encouraged Mr Koh.

Net interest income - comprising interest earned on loans and interbank credit spreads - grew 5 per cent from a year ago to $1.11 billion.

Non-interest, which are fees earned from investments and brokerage activities, rose by about 25 per cent to $680 million.

However, Mr Koh said he remained "cautious about the continuing pace of improvement" in the economy.

----

DBS results better than expected

Profits up 21% from Q1, but bad debts up $410m from Q2 2008



DBS Group Holdings, South-east Asia's biggest bank, reported a smaller-than-estimated 15-per-cent decline in second-quarter profit as
income from stock broking, investment banking and wealth management rose.

Net income fell to $552 million from $652 million a year earlier, the bank said in a statement to the Singapore stock exchange this morning. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts was for a profit of $425 million.

The net earnings represented an increase of 21 per cent from the previous quarter.

"DBS is well positioned to weather the uncertainties ahead as our
balance sheet remains strong," chairman Koh Boon Hwee said in a statement.

Revenues rose 8 per cent from the previous quarter to a new high of $1.79 billion as better net interest margins, capital market activities, trading and investment income resulted in broad-based revenue growth.

Net interest income grew 3 per cent from the previous quarter and 5 per cent from a year ago to $1.11 billion.

Following several quarters of growth, loan volume was unchanged for the quarter. Including currency translation effects, loans fell 2 per cent from the previous quarter to $128 billion but remained 8 per cent above a year ago, said the bank.

Bad debt charges jumped almost nine-fold to $466 million, from $56 million a year ago.

Singapore and Hong Kong savings and current deposit volume grew during the quarter. Including currency translation effects, deposits were stable at $179.0 billion, said DBS.

Non-interest income rose 16 per cent from the previous quarter to $680 million, which was up 25.7 per cent on the $541-million figure of a year ago.

Trading income hit $172 million on the back of gains in foreign exchange and interest rate activities and better asset valuations, said DBS. Investment gains of $138 million, mainly from the sale of equity holdings this quarter, was up from the $106 million of the previous quarter.

DBS and smaller rival Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp were upgraded on July 23 to "buy" from "neutral" at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch on optimism earnings will improve as Singapore's economy recovers. The bank, which gets about a quarter of its earnings from Hong Kong, is also expanding in mainland China and Taiwan.

"DBS' earnings are most sensitive to an economic recovery," Merrill Lynch analysts Kar Weng Loo and Alistair Scarff wrote in their report, citing its low loan-deposit ratio and strong capital position. AGENCIES

Saturday 8 August 2009

Changes in Capital Structure

The preference for an all-common stock capitalization could in many cases prove disadvantageous for the owners of the business.

Not only might it prevent them from "maximising their gains", but more seriously, it might prevent them from earning enough on their capital to support or carry the investment.

We think there is an unanswerable argument in favour of a moderate amount of senior securities (bonds and preferred shares) if:
  • (1) such senior securities might be conservatively created and bought for investment under established standards of safety; and
  • (2) the use of senior capital is necessary to provide a satisfactory return on the common equity.

A company with only common stock outstanding may change toward the optimal structure by any of several means:
  • 1. It may issue senior securities (bonds and preferred shares) pursuant to an expansion move, perhaps involving the acquisition of another business. (Example: Beaunit Mills Corporation changed from an all-common structure in March 1948 to a predominantly senior-security structure in March 1949.)
  • 2. It can recapitalize, and issue new preferred stock and common stock - or even new bonds and common stock - in place of the old common. (Example: Ward Baking Company did this, via a new holding-company setup in 1924.)
  • 3. It can declare a stock dividend, payable in new preferred shares. (Example: Electric Boat issued such a stock dividend in 1946.)
  • 4. It can sell senior securities (bonds and preferred shares) and distribute all or part of the money to the common stockholders. (Example: In effect this was done in the recapitalization of Maytag Company in 1928.)

When a move of the fourth kind is made, it is almost always tied in with a merger or other corporate development - presumably because financial opinion is prejudiced against the sale of senior securities for cash to be distributed to common shareholders, regardless of the logic in the individual case.

Experience amply shows that once management is persuaded that the capital structure should be changed, to create a better earning power per dollar of common investment, it can readily find suitable means of accomplishing this end.

While this is a matter that may be of considerable importance to the stockholders of many companies, we do not think that they are likely to formulate and express independent views thereon until they have made considerable progress in self-education on other points affecting their interest.

Attention to this matter will repay careful thought by security analysts, managements, and enterprising stockholders.



Ref: Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd

Prorata Distributions of Capital the Fairest Arrangement

The basic questions are:
  • whether any substantial amount of capital is redundant, and,
  • whether the stockholders would benefit if such capital were returned to them.

If these were true, it becomes the duty of the directors to treat all stockholders fairly in the process.

A return of capital by a prorata distribution, would be the most direct and equitable way of accomplishing this.

However, valid tax considerations often dictate the alternative process of buying in shares.

It still remains the duty of the management to deal equitably with all the holders and to equalize as nearly as possible the position of those who sell and those who keep their shares.

Outside stockholders should insist on a policy of fairness, regardless of whether they would sell or not.

They are much more likely to benefit in the long run by having the principle of equitable treatment of all stockholders established, than by taking temporary advantage of the necessities or bad judgment of those who are willing to dispose of their holdings at a totally inadequate price.

Ref: Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd

Repurchases of Shares by Companies

Convincing evidence that many companies do in fact accumulate more capital than they need is seen in the prevalence of repurchases of stock in the open market.

A check in 1951 of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange showed 430 (or 40.3%) holding shares of their own previously issued common and preferred stocks. A compilation by the Exchange in 1934 indicated 250 (or 32%) of the corporations held such stock in the treasury.

It is appropriate to mention that there are legitimate reasons (other than possession of surplus cash) for reacquiring stock, such as
  • for retirement under sinking-fund provisions,
  • to acquire assets which cannot be purchased for cash, and
  • for distribution to employees as awards or
  • for sale under company stock-purchase plans.
These repurchases as a whole present ethical questions which have not been thoroughly considered either by managements or stockholders.

It is assumed to be a "smart" thing to buy in stock at the lowest possible price, just as a smart buyer would purchase anything else.

For some reason, managements consider their duty lies only to those stockholders who do NOT sell, and that they have no obligation to deal considerately with anyone so disloyal or so speculatively minded as to want to dispose of his shares.

Furthermore, the argument runs, the company could refrain from buying shares at all, in which case those selling out would receive a still lower price. Hence, there can be no unfairness in paying a price, however small, as long as the seller could not do better elsewhere.


Ref: Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd

Returning Unneeded Capital to Stockholders

These 2 examples illustrated
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2009/08/examples-of-companies-with-large.html

  • how the problem of excessive capital tends to develop,
  • what its unfavourable effects are for the stockholders,
  • how difficult it is to persuade management to correct the situation, and
  • how the stockholders benefit if and when it is finally corrected.

Evidently several things are needed in order that stockholders and managements both may come to view situations of this kind in a sensible and business-like fashion.

  • First, the principle must be accepted that, WHEN THE RESULTS ON CAPITAL ARE UNSATISFACTORY, it is appropriate for stockholders to inquire whether too much of their capital is employed in the enterprise.
  • Second, if the amount at risk appears prima facie to be more than the business requires, the stockholders should insist on factual and convincing reasons for its retention. They should not be satisfied with the usual generalizations about what is "good for the business," and the usual vague references to possible future opportunities or disasters. (Managements consider either as a sufficient excuse for holding on to what is there.)
  • Third, if capital can be spared, they should insist that it be returned to stockholders on an equitable basis.
Ref: Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd

Examples of Companies with Large Working Capital

Northern Pipe Line Company



In 1926, this company had:



Total Equity: capital and surplus of $4,235,000,

represented by

Current Asset: $3,489,000 of cash assets, $33,000 of other current assets, and

Fixed Asset: $1,319,000 of net plant,

less

Total liabilities: $606,000.



Total business done was only about $500,000.



A good part of the net earnings of $375,000 ( $9.375 per share) came from investments in railroad bonds.



The stock sold for an average value of $2,880,000 ($72 per share for 40,000 shares), which was considerably less than the cash assets alone.



These cash assets had been accumulated mainly out of annual charges for depreciation.



Dividends had been generous in relation to earnings and amounted to $6 per share in 1926.



The business, formerly very prosperous, had lost a good part of the volume and, with it, its appeal to investors.



Clearly, the outside stock-holders were at a great disadvantage in having so much of their capital tied up in cash funds that were held by an unattractive enterprise.



The management claimed that it was necessary or advisable to retain this money, because some day they MIGHT want to build a new pipe line.



It required a strenuous proxy contest to change the management's thinking.



Later, cash distributions of $70 per share ($2,800,000) were made as a return of capital, and the stockholders' over-all position was greatly improved.



----



Colt's Manufacturing Company.



This company emerged from the war with over $10 million in working capital, largely cash; but in 1946 its sales were only $5.0 million, and in 1946-1948 it lost money in the aggregate.



In this instance, the management embarked on two unrelated lines of business, in order to find additional employment for the large plant facilities and current assets. (However, the funds committed were held down to modest figures.)



The new lines did not prove successful, at least as far as enabling the company to show an adequate return on the owner's capital.



The stock sold persistently for much less than the working capital alone. (In 1947 the average price was 31, against net current assets or working capital of over $50 per share.)



Large stockholding interests, having previously obtained places on the board and having studied the company's problems and possibilities with care, finally decided that the capital should be reduced substantially by repurchasing a large proportion of the outstanding stock.



In 1950, following a call for tenders of stock, 125,000 shares, or 64% of the total, were bought in at a price as high as the working-capital value of $53.



The remaining shares had the same prorata interest as before in the current assets, and a much larger interest in the plant. This move was unquestionably beneficial both to the stockholders who sold back and to those who retained their stock, which sold as high as 65 soon after the repurchase.

Ref: Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd

The Paradox of Large Working Capital in Mediocre Companies

1. A prosperous company would appear more likely to accumulate excessive capital than a nonprosperous one.

2. Strangely enough, this is not true. Most prosperous companies, in our dynamic economy, have been able to expand their business more or less steadily, and this expansion has supplied a satisfactory outlet for the retained earnings.

3. On the other hand, many concerns that have shown mediocre results over a long period of years will in one way or another end up by holding too much of their stockholders' capital.

  • This is often the result of a persistently low dividend, together with some fairly large accumulation of profits in boom periods.
  • Sometimes new capital is raised by stock sales which later turn out to be redundant.
  • In frequent cases the accrual of substantial annual depreciation and depletion charges results in gradually transferring the fixed assets into cash, with a consequent excess of working capitals.

4. Consequently, the question whether too much capital is being used in the business becomes of practical moment to stockholders only in the case of nonprosperous companies. (After all, properous companies do not present problems to their stockholderss except in the matter of dividend policy.)

  • It is an area in which the interests of stockholders and managements are likely to clash vigorously.
  • The more dubious the company's prospects - which means generally the less satisfactory its past results - the more anxious management is to retain all the cash it can in the business;
  • but the stockholders would be well advised to take out all the capital that can be safely spared, because these funds are much more valuable to them if in their own pockets, or invested elsewhere, than if left in a nonprosperous business.

Ref: Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd

Stockholders should know whether their company is a prosperous and successful one.

  1. Stockholders should know whether their company is a prosperous and successful one. The standard test here is average earnings on invested capital.
  2. If the company is prosperous, the stockholders should insist on a dividend policy which will give them an adequate return on the intrinsic value of their investment.
  3. If the company is not a prosperous one, the stockholders should insist on knowing why.
  • They should try to find out whether the management is competent; if it is not, they should insist on changing it.
  • If the earnings, the dividend returns, and the average market price of their shares are unsatisfactory in relation to the minimum value of the enterprise, they should constantly raise the question as to what changes should be made in policies, in corporate setup, or in the enterprise as a whole, in order to improve the position of the owners of the business.

Investment of Surplus Funds by Nonfinancial Businesses

The ordinary manufacturing or distributing business does not or should not have funds for permanent investment in securities.

For "temporary investment" - which may cover quite a number of years - the most suitable media are U.S. Government securities or tax-free issues.

It seems fairly evident, on the whole, that other types of investments by business enterprises - whether in bonds or in stocks - can offer a appreciably higher return only at risk of loss and of criticism.

A possible exception may be made in favour of well-protected preferred stocks or guaranteed common stocks, because of their attractive tax status when owned by a corporation.

Ref: Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd

Friday 7 August 2009

Pound and gilt yields slide as Bank of England pledges to buy £50bn more

Pound and gilt yields slide as Bank of England pledges to buy £50bn more

Money and currency markets were sent reeling after the Bank of England surprised the City by unexpectedly extending its programme of Quantitative Easing (QE) by £50bn.


By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor
Published: 5:54AM BST 07 Aug 2009

Far from bringing its programme of bond-buying to an end, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has extended it beyond the initial £150bn ceiling agreed with the Chancellor.

The Bank said it planned to increase the scale of its programme to £175bn over the next three months, buying up a further chunk of the UK sovereign debt market. As expected, it also left the Bank rate on hold at 0.5pc. The move sent the pound more than a cent and a half lower against the dollar to $1.6801, although sterling strengthened against the euro, whose guardian, the European Central Bank, also left its key rate on hold at 1pc.

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ECB holds interest rate as downturn slows
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BoE cautious about recovery as it prints £50bn more

The announcement caused a further flurry in gilt market, where yields dropped at one point by more than 20 basis points, before settling at just above 3.7pc.

So much of the gilts market does the Bank now own that, in a landmark move, it also agreed that it would temporarily lend out gilts through the Debt Management Office to ensure that banks are able to close out positions as necessary.

The Bank has also suspended its purchases of four particular maturities of gilts after it emerged that it had bought as much as 70pc of their total issue. In a further sign of the rate at which it is exhausting the gilt market, the Bank will also start buying gilts of both shorter and longer maturities than the 5 to 25 year set it was originally buying.

Danny Gabay of Fathom Consulting said the news "reflects the fact that the Bank has to all intents and purposes 'cornered' the market for certain Gilts or bonds, to which market participants may still need to have access. Innocent enough - but it makes the charge that the whole [scheme] is an elaborate smokescreen for monetising the government's ballooning deficit even harder to refute.

"So, while we welcome the news of an extension to the asset programme, we would once again urge the MPC to consider a much wider range of assets to purchase than government bonds."

Yesterday's decision means that the Bank will soon own almost half of the entire gilts market, currently worth around £400bn, raising further questions about the Government's reliance on the QE programme to keep its financing under control.

Former Bank policymaker Sushil Wadhwani said he suspected the Bank's enthusiasm for QE could store up problems next year as attention focuses on the creditworthiness of various countries around the world.

"It seems to me that with the economic indicators bouncing they didn't need to take the risk [of extending QE], though I don't think it will do a lot of harm at this stage."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5984999/Pound-and-gilt-yields-slide-as-Bank-of-England-pledges-to-buy-50bn-more.html

Business at NOL still 'depressed'

Business at NOL still 'depressed'
CEO says difficult dynamics to 'be with us for some time'

05:55 AM Aug 07, 2009

FEWER goods being shipped due to the global trade slowdown and cheaper shipping rates have caused net profits of Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) to slump for the third straight quarter.

The Mainboard-listed container shipping firm reported a second quarter net loss of US$146.2 million ($210 million), reversing a net profit of US$75.8 million in the same period a year ago.

While the second quarter losses was an improvement to the first quarter loss of US$245 million, the company expects business conditions to remain tough going forward and will likely post a "significant" full-year loss.

NOL's chief executive Ron Widdows said that "although volumes and operating performance improved in latter months of the first half, business conditions remained depressed, and this continued to impact our financial performance".

He added: "It's going to continue to be very difficult, so we've provided guidance that we anticipate a significant loss. These conditions that we see in place today, the dynamics affecting the industry, will be with us for some time."

The lower second quarter net profits was on the back of a 38-per-cent decline in group revenue for the three months ended June to US$1.4 billion. This was largely due to falling revenue from its container shipping division APL, which dropped 39 per cent to US$1.2 billion from the previous year due to declining cargo volumes.

The container shipping business accounts for about 80 per cent of NOL's revenue.

APL president Eng Aik Meng said: "In terms of volume, there has been an across-the-board reduction of 19 per cent. Most significant was the reduction in the Americas. Trans-Pacific trade had a 25-per-cent reduction in volumes in Q2 '09 versus Q2 '08." Europe had a similar reduction of 26 per cent and Asia/Middle East had a relatively smaller reduction of 8 per cent, he added.

For the rest of the year, the shipping firm said that it will continue to focus on improving asset utilisation, yields and productivity.

With the completion of its rights issue last month which raised nearly $1 billion, the company said that this will help it to better weather the downturn with a stronger balance sheet. 938LIVE

Challenges for the Value Investor

A value investor:

1. Has developed his method to analyze stocks.

2. Has established general principles for his stock selection and for protection of his portfolio (portfolio management).

3. Has the ability to distinguish between his investment and his speculation.

4. Has always emphasized safety of his principal in his investing.

5. Has the humility to know that an important but difficult topic is his determination of the future prospects of an enterprise.

6. Has the enthusiasm to look for bargains using his technique of value investing, often placing this technique beyond its relative importance in this entire field of investing.

7. Has adopted a critical approach to his investing being concerned with concepts, methods, standards, principles, and, above all, with logical reasoning.

8. Has a good understanding of the theory for the values that are applicable in his practice.

9. Has avoided prescribing standards which are too difficult for him to follow, or technical methods which are more trouble to him than they are worth.

10. Has the ability to blend his divergent experiences of the recent and the remoter past to help and guide him in navigating the uncertain future.

11. Has always approach his investing "from the viewpoint of calamity."

12. Has guarded himself against overemphasis upon the superficial and the temporary.

Glovemakers shares up on rising demand

Glovemakers shares up on rising demand
Published: 2009/08/07


OSK Research has an 'overweight' rating on the sector, raising its target prices on some rubber glove stocks


SHARES of rubber glove companies are on a roll right now and will continue to move up, riding on the global outbreak of influenza A (H1N1).

OSK Research Sdn Bhd has an "overweight" rating on the sector, raising its target prices on some rubber glove stocks, in line with recent developments in the industry's spurring demand for rubber gloves.

The local research house organised plant tours to four rubber glove companies last month, namely Top Glove Corp Bhd (7113), Supermax Corp Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd and Hartalega Holdings Bhd.

"For Top Glove, we recommend a buy with a target price of RM8.50 from RM7.40 previously and Supermax, also a buy with a target price of RM3.85 from RM2.69 previously," it said in a report yesterday.

"We are also recommending a buy on Kossan, with a target price of RM4.98 from RM4.48 previously as well as on Adventa, with a target price of RM1.87 from RM1.31 before," it added.

While it has revised its target price upwards to RM5.45 from RM4.10 for Hartalega, the research house has downgraded its call to "neutral" from "buy" previously, given that Hartalega's share price has caught up with the valuation.

OSK Research said demand for rubber gloves from the medical industry remains strong, especially from developing countries.

"But glove supply is still short. Since the H1N1 outbreak has been raised to a pandemic level, the governments of developed countries like the US and Europe have urged all healthcare multinational corps to stock up on rubber gloves, which has created short-term demand.

"Over the longer term, demand is expected to come from developing countries like China, India and Russia, which are gradually increasing their use of gloves," it said.

Also, with the US tightening its Food and Drug Administration regulations effective December 2008, the number of glove defects per batch would need to be reduced to qualify for entry to the US market.

This would reduce the supply of rubber glove exports to the US due to the retention of "unqualified"' gloves at the ports and hence create new sales opportunities for the established rubber glove manufacturers, said OSK Research.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/RUBROLL/Article/

Latexx steps up expansion to meet demand

Latexx steps up expansion to meet demand
By Ooi Tee Ching
Published: 2009/08/07


Rubber glovemaker Latexx Partners will complete eight more lines by year-end as its orders have stretched until three months ahead


Rubber glovemaker Latexx Partners Bhd (7064) is expanding more quickly than planned to meet the sudden big orders from hospitals in the US, Europe and Latin America in the wake of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic.

"Demand for rubber gloves has been surging since April. We have to move faster as orders have stretched until three months ahead," its chief executive officer Low Bok Tek said.

"We're just completing Plant 5. There will be eight more lines by the end of this year," he added.

Latexx's cluster of factories on a 20ha site have the capacity to produce 5.2 billion pieces a year. It employs 1,800 workers, most of whom are foreigners.
It is investing RM70 million until mid-2011 to increase annual output to nine billion pieces.

"Rubber gloves are a volume game. We need to expand to reap the economies of scale and maintain our profit margin," Low told Business Times in an interview at the company headquarters in Kamunting, Perak.

"We hope the government is mindful of glovemakers' predicament and will allow us additional foreign workers to facilitate expansion," he said, adding that 45 per cent of its gloves are shipped to North America. Another 30 per cent goes to European hospitals.

Latexx, founded in 1988, offers a product mix of 59 per cent powder-free, 28 per cent powdered and 13 per cent nitrile, or synthetic, gloves. It plans to make more synthetic and fewer powdered gloves in future.

The company currently has total debt of around RM70 million, with RM27 million in cash reserves.

Last week, Latexx reported to the stock exchange that its second quarter profit in the year ended June 30 2009 jumped 10 times to RM11.41 million from a year ago. It attributed the stellar performance to increased sales of rubber gloves at better prices and lower costs from economies of scale.

While Latexx may not be as big as Top Glove Corp Bhd or Supermax Corp Bhd, it is now generating double-digit profit margins close to that of the world's most highly-mechanised glovemaker, Hartalega Holdings Bhd.

http://www.btimes.com.my/articles/latexxx/Article/

Bulls lift Asia stocks near 11-month highs

Bulls lift Asia stocks near 11-month highs

HONG KONG, Aug 6 — Asian stocks edged up close to 11-month highs today on strength in resource-related shares, while the Australian dollar gained after a surprise rise in employment prompted increased bets on higher interest rates.

Developed markets were favoured during the Asian session, with Japanese and Australian stocks posting gains of more than 1 per cent, while shares in Shanghai dropped on nervousness monetary authorities will take more steps to curb lending.

Japan’s Nikkei share average rose 1.3 per cent, led by Honda Motor after a report the world’s top motorcycle maker will import bikes from Thailand to sell in Japan to cut costs.

Camera maker Nikon Corp saw its shares plunge 10 per cent and was the biggest drag on the Nikkei, after it warned of a loss that would be more than double its initial forecast.

Stocks in Shanghai dropped as much as 3 per cent but then cut their losses to 2.1 per cent though the index is still up some 84 per cent this year.

China’s central bank late yesterday repeated that monetary policy will remain growth friendly, sticking with its view that the recovery was not solid, though it said it would use market tools to fine tune policy after unprecedented loan growth in the first six months of the year.

That sparked fears of increasing action by authorities to rein in abundant liquidity.

“Nearly every sector is overvalued and the whole market is very much excessively valued,” said Qian Qimin, deputy research head at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities in Shanghai.

“The market is tired. Investors are tired. Any slight negative news can now turn into the last straw to push down the market, not because the central bank is changing its policy,” Qian said.

Hong Kong shares, however, jumped 2 per cent to an 11-month closing high as early losses were erased by strong buying in China Mobile on speculation the company was on track to list in Shanghai.

Australian stocks rose 1.5 per cent to a fresh nine-month closing high, with banks leading the gains on optimism their earnings would benefit from an improved economic outlook.

Shares in Taiwan and South Korea rose by about a third of a per cent, while Singapore dipped 0.2 per cent.

India topped losses among Asian markets with a 2.5 per cent drop as profit taking resurfaced after a near-19 per cent jump over the past 3-½ weeks.


STILL CAUTIOUS

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan climbed about 0.8 per cent, thanks to strength in telecommunications and materials stocks.

Technology and consumer-related stocks, which have been leaders throughout the rally, were the only sectors down on the day. That suggested profit taking was on the minds of investors after the index hit 11-month highs on Tuesday.

In the United States, network equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc chief executive John Chambers sounded a cautious note on recovery prospects despite giving a revenue outlook that was in line with Wall Street’s expectations.

In currency markets, the dollar was steady against the euro and sterling today as the market awaited key policy decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, while higher equities weighed on the yen.

Both the ECB and the BoE are seen leaving interest rates on hold at 1.0 and 0.5 per cent respectively, though the market will be looking for whether the central banks have adopted a more optimistic tone on the economic outlook.

The Australian dollar rose 0.2 per cent to US$0.8418, lifted by better-than-expected Australian employment data, while a higher-than-expected jobless rate in New Zealand pushed the New Zealand dollar down 0.4 per cent at US$0.6706. Australian employment increased by 32,200 jobs in July, surpassing forecasts for a 20,000 drop. That fueled expectations that Australia’s central bank will be the first among the Group of 10 countries to raise interest rates.

The Australian 1-year overnight indexed swap, an instrument to speculate on where interest rates are headed, increased by 11 basis points. Dealers priced in 71 basis points worth of tightening over the next 12 months.

US oil for September delivery slipped half a per cent to around US$71.60 (RM250.60) a barrel as fears lingered about the face of the US recovery following weak services-sector data. Still, US$72 remains an enticing obstacle for traders after the contract closed at US$71.97 overnight.

A gauge released yesterday of the US services sector – the biggest part of the economy – surprisingly reflected weakness in July, contrasting with upbeat manufacturing and investment readings. – Reuters

Thursday 6 August 2009

An explanation on what are 'peaks' in a bull market


Thursday August 6, 2009
An explanation on what are 'peaks' in a bull market



IS it time to bail out of the China and Hong Kong stock markets? Are they too frothy already? iCapital says “not by a long shot”.

For one, investor sentiment is still extremely weak and nervous, despite the rally seen in numerous stock markets.

After rising 100% in nine months, the Shanghai Composite index this week plunged 5% in a single day, making investors all nervous and worried that the Chinese government is about to start tightening and cause a hard landing. This is how fragile the current sentiment is.

Peaks in bull markets are made when the markets are unable to continue rising even in the face of continuing positive fundamental news.

Now the situation is such that investors keep buying and worrying that the fundamentals do not improve or would not sustain.

Second, while bank lending in China has been surging, the broad Chinese economy is still not on a sound broad recovery footing. The Chinese government knows that bank loans cannot keep expanding at the current rate.

The leaders and policymakers know that they are navigating a very difficult situation. Too loose a monetary policy for too long a period, China may have an asset bubble in equity and property prices. Too tight a policy too early, one may prematurely short-circuit the current recovery momentum.


China recognises this delicate situation and is also very aware that foreign parties know the fragile state China is in and are ever ready to exploit this to destabilise China.

However, the leaders and policymakers have plenty of experience in handling such types of tight rope situations.

Unknown to most people, China’s unemployment rate has been rising for the last 25-30 years (see chart), thanks to the endless and relentless restructuring of the Chinese economy.

Millions of workers have been retrenched as state-owned enterprises and other organisations restructured. Even the People’s Liberation Army had to downsize.

In view of the restructuring process, the leaders are extremely sensitive to the labour market conditions and are very experienced in handling such delicate affairs. For now, the external demand for China’s products remains weak.

The reliance on domestic sources of growth is of paramount importance. And this will continue to be the case until convincing signs appear that it is time to cool things down.

Many analysts caution on the present market rally, saying that it is all liquidity driven. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is showing more signs of recovery.

Soon, it will be green fields everywhere. When this happens, the depressed earnings will surge and the equity market valuation will look less expensive then.

The same applies to the Hong Kong stock market. Even the initial public offering market is just beginning its frenzied phase.

Even though the Hang Seng index has rallied strongly since its bottom in October 2008, the bull market is still young. No bull market has died at such a young age.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/8/6/business/4461929&sec=business



Related:

Bubble Trouble
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2009/06/bubble-trouble.html

Bubbles and bear markets are two separate and distinct things. Investors truly need to understand the differences. You need to understand which strategy to apply when, and not use a hammer when you need a screwdriver. Once you see the straightforward differences, you will know what to do.

What do you get in SPG and how to use it?

What do you get in SPG and how to use it?

The guide contains critical investment information for all stocks listed on the Main Board of the BMS.

SPG is designed for investors who believe in buying stocks based on their fundamentals. If an investor wants to buy a share based on fundamentals, what type of information would he need?
  • Essentially, he would need the most up to date information on the quality, performance and pricing (valuation) of the stock.
  • He needs information on the quality of the stock so that he will not overpay for stocks for poor quality.
  • He needs data on performance so that the stock he buys will perform well in the future and give him good return.
  • Lastly, he needs information on the pricing of the stocks so that he knows at what level to buy the share.

Since the typical fundamental investor is usually a long term investor, he would also need to have a good idea of the future condition and it is of course very difficult to look into the future.
  • If an investor is very knowledgeable and is prepared to do a lot of research work, it may be possible to determine the future condition and prospect of a company.
  • We are believers of the saying that: "The past is a good indication of the future". Hence the SPG provides you with 12 years of earnings and dividend records as well as three years of financial data and ratios.
  • A company with a good track record is likely to continue to do well in the future unless there is a complete change in management.
SPG contains two main types of information:
  • Descriptive and
  • Statistical.

Descriptive information comprises information on:

  • Ownership,
  • Activities,
  • Corporate Structure,
  • Past & Future Performance and
  • Capital of the company.

This section is mainly designed to give the readers an idea of the performance and quality of the company in terms of its strategy, earnings and assets management.

SPG briefly discusses qualitatively the immediate past, current and future earnings prospects of the company. SPG does not discuss the historical earnings trend apart from that of the previous year as this data is available in another part of the report.

The descriptive part of the report, seeks to provide you with some fo the answers to the "WHAT stock am I buying?" questions.


Stastistical information is made up of two parts:
(1) Critical stock market information, for 12 years or from the year of listing, comprising of the
  • Annual Price Range,
  • EPS,
  • DPS,
  • DY Range and
  • PER Range.

(2) Financial information comprising of Summary Statistics from
  • the Balance Sheet and
  • Profit & Loss Statement of the company as well as
  • a collection of Critical Financial Ratios.

This is probably the most improtant and unique part of this publication. The information provided is in the form of data for each year. The annual stock performance figures, be they price, EPS or DPS, may not be enough in themselves.

Serious investors may like to take a longer view by seeing how the figures may have changed over the years.
That is, what are the historical growth rates of the price, EPS and DPS of a stock from the past.

Furthermore, owing to the fact that the performance for a particular year may be very good or very bad, the DY and PER figures would be seriously distorted. It is sometimes more useful to look at the average figures rather then the individual year's figures.

The Statistical part of the report is used more for answering to the "WHICH stock to buy?" and the "WHEN to buy a stock?" questions.


Ref:
How to use the Stock Performance Guide (SPG)
Stock Performance Guide by Dynaquest Sdn. Bhd.

Nickel Price Graph




http://www.lme.co.uk/nickel_graphs.asp

SPG guide on capitalisation changes

Internal capitalisation changes are those capitalisation changes which affect the number of shares held by the pre-existing shareholders (i.e. bonus, rights, splits, etc.).

Shares issued to outsiders in the case of share swaps, special issues, etc., do not affect the number of shares held by the pre-existing shareholders.

SPG does not believe that bonuses increase the value of shares, and advise investors not to pay much attention to the past number of bonus issues.

We look at rights in another light, however, as we are not in favour of rights issues unless the company has been an exceptionally fast growing ones (i.e. growth in excess of 20% per year). In other cases, a company which has issued more than one rights in the past decade ought to be viewed with caution.

It is perhaps worth pointing out that a company which has many capitalisation changes all bunched together during a short space of time without a concomitant increase in earnings could be trying to impress its sharehodlers and the stockmarket. Historically, such companies usually performed poorly after such capitalisation changes were over.

Any existing issues which will lead to future dilution should be noted. Dilution means the creation of extra number of shares which will cause the per share earnings and dividend to decline. Normally, dilutive issues include warrants (TSR) and convertibles. By comparing the number of new shares which will be issued with the existing number of shares, the user would have an idea of the potential dilution.

For example, if a total of 100 million new shares will be issued and the exisitng number of shares is 300 million; the potential earnings dilution would be 25% without taking into consideration the notional interest saving. That is the EPS will decline, say, from 10 sen per share to 7.5 sen.

Fixed income securities (i.e. bonds etc) issued by the company should be considered too.


Ref:
How to use the Stock Performance Guide (SPG)
Stock Performance Guide by Dynaquest Sdn. Bhd.

Wednesday 5 August 2009

More Gems from SPG

Financial Statistics


Nett Tangible Asset Backing Per Share (NTA/Share)

This is a more conservative measure than Nett Asset Backing Per Share (NAB/Shr). NTA/Shr is more conservative because the intangible assets (mainly goodwill) are deducted from the total value of the assets before dividing the amount by the number of share.

For most companies, the NTA and NAB are similar. NAB/Shr is supposed to show the actual nett amount of asset which is represented by each share of the company. This is an often quoted figure but its use is very limited. The reason being that the NAB/Shr is dependent on the total book value of the assets of company which in turn is dependent on the valuation method used to record the value of each piece of the assets fo the company. Some companies are very conservative and use the original purchase prices as the book values. Other companies use market values. Furthermore some of those companies which use market values may be over generous in their method of determining market values. Thus the true value of the assets of a company is very difficult to identify and can be very different from the book NAB of the company. We would advise the use of this piece of data with care. Additional research is needed before a firm judgement can be given.

The NTA/Shr can be used to compute the Price To Book Ratio by dividing the current price by this figure. This ratio shows how many times is the price higher than the NTA/Shr. Ceteris paribus the stock with the lowest Price To Book ratio for the same industry represents the best value. For example, a company selling at 70% of its NTA would seem like good value, as we can buy at well below the cost of its assets, unless it had originally bought its assets at well inflated prices.

Liquid Asset Per Share (Liq Assets/Share)

Liquid Asset is defined to include cash, bank balances and deposits. Generally a company which has a lot of liquid assets on hand is a financially strong one. A company which is financially weak is unlikely to have a lot of liquid assets on hand. However, some financially sound company do not have a lot of liquid assets as they may have other uses for their liquid assets. A very high ratio of liquid asset per share indicates high financial strength of a company.

Debt/Equity Ratio (D/E Ratio)

The D/E Ratio measure the ratio between the amount of Interest Bearing Debt a company has and the amount of Shareholders Equity. The amount of shareholders equity of a company is the same as its Nett Asset Backing. One must bear in mind what we have said about the lack of standardisation in measuring the value of the assets of a company.

D/E ratio is another crude measure of the financial strength of the company. The smaller is the debt relative to the equity, the stronger is a company. As a very rough guide, a D/E ratio of more than 0.5 is regarded as high and one of more than 1.0 is regarded as very high. A very low ratio supports the contention that a company is a financially strong one.

Altman's Z-Score

This is a popular "all in one" measure of the financial strength of a company. The higher the value of the Z-score, the stronger is the company financially. Simplistically, a Z-Score of below 2.00 indicated that the financial strength of a company is questionable and a score of above 2.00 is regarded as good.

It is to be noted that the computations of Z-score includes the price of the share and if the market price is very low, the Z-Score can be very low also. Further, it is to be noted that the Z-score computed for a particular financial year for the situation as at the end of the financial year. The current situation may be very different from that at the year end.

Asset Turnover

This ratio indicates the efficiency with which the company is able to use all its assets to generate sales. Generally, the higher a company's total asset turnover, the more efficiently its assets have been used. Please note that different industries tend to have different asset turnover ratio. This ratio should only be used for comparing firms in the same industry. (Asset Turnover = Total Sales/ Total Assets)

Gross Margin

Gross Margin equals Gross Profit/Sales. Gross Profit is defined as Sales Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold. Gross margin measures (roughly) the percentage value added by a firm on its raw material before selling it. For the same industry, the higher is the gross margin of a firm, the higher is the potential for obtaining profit and the better is the management quality.

Free Cashflow to Capital

FCF is the amount of nett cashflow left after paying for re-investment in fixed and current assets. FCF measures the ability of a firm to pay out dividend. FCF/Capital compares the FCF of a firm with the total capital employed (defined as total shareholders equity & debt). The higher the ratio, the more efficiently is the firm using its capital.

Return on Equity (ROE)

In the West this is considered to be a most important ratio for it is an indication of how well the management is making use of the assets of the company in generating return for its shareholders. Generally, it should not be less than 10% averaged over time. However, owing to the fact that a great number of local Malaysian companies have vastly overvalued their assets, their ROE is very low. We consider low ROE to be a red flag. It shows either the company is poor in managing its assets or high in revaluing its assets or both. Either of these is not a good sign.


Ref:
How to use the Stock Performance Guide (SPG)
Stock Performance Guide by Dynaquest Sdn. Bhd.

Some GEMS from SPG

Some GEMS from SPG:


Corporate Information

1. Market Capitalisation:

This gives an indication of the worth of the company placed by the market. On occasions, the worth maybe too high. Certain small companies may have market capitalisation of many billions. At times like this, the market capitalisation gives a sense of reality. During period of extreme bullishness, all Bursa Malaysia companies have a minimum value (about RM200 m). If the market capitalisation is below this value, the company maybe under-valued during this type of market.

2. Segment Information:

Most companies operate in more than one sector of the economy and different sectors of the economy perform differently. A better understanding of the company can be obtained if the sales and profit before tax of each segment is separately provided.



Market & Financial Statistics

3. 3-Year Price Chart:

The weekly price chart of the stock for last three years give a visual indication of the current valuation relative to historical valuation. A stock whose price is very high or very low relative to its historical level is probably worth investigating further.



The Critical Stockmarket Information
The Annual Information

4. Adjusted Price Range

The adjusted price range over the past decade would give a good idea of the range and trend of price movements of a particular stock. The most important use of the price range is to consider the trend of the price over the years and compare it with the growth of earnings and dividend as well as consider it in relationship to common sense.

Generally, beware of sudden price movements upward from a low previous level because such upward movements usually cannot be sustained. Similarly if the price has been in a sharp fall inspite of reasonable DY and PER, it usually will recover in due course.

The second most important use of this information is to consider the size of the price range in the past. The greater the range of movement, the more volatile is the share's price and the riskier it is as an investment. An investor has to be particularly careful if he is considering buying a highly volatile share which is not backed by good dividend or earnings. Even worse is the situation in which the volatile shares is selling at a high price.

5. Adjusted Dividend per Share (DPS)

This is the most important column to look at when evaluating the worth of a share. The ideal situation is for the DPS of a company to grow smoothly and rapidly over the years. There is one important caveat in the use of this information; the amount of dividend paid out must be compared with the amount of earnings per share (EPS). The growth of DPS must be proportionate to the growth of EPS. A company cannot sustain year after year of higher DPS than EPS. On the other hand, the DPS should not be too small compared with the EPS unless the EPS is growing rapidly. Under normal circumstances, the DPS should be between 30-70% of the EPS.

6. Adjusted Earnings per Share (EPS)

This column shows the progress made by the company in terms of its earnings per shares. As with DPS, the ideal situation is one in which the EPS grows smoothly and rapidly. Failing that a company ought to have either a stable or growing EPS. The worst would be for a company which has highly variable AND declining EPS. This is the second most important information to look at when one is trying to evaluate the worth of a share.

Starting from FY97, extraordinary gain/loss is excluded from the computation of bottomline earnings while "exception" gain/loss is not. To prevent violent fluctuations in EPS, SPG continues to exclude these from the computation of bottomline earnings, except in cases where such gains/loss may be regarded as part of the ordinary business of the firms.

7. Adjusted DY Range

This information is only truly useful if the shares are investment grade shares. By this we mean shares which are not speculative and whose prices bear reasonably stable relationship with its DPS and EPS. Regretably, in the Bursa Malaysia a large number of shares fall into the speculative category.

It is very important to know the DY of a share because this figure provides us with a direct comparison against the return we can get from fixed deposit. The return we can expect from a share should bear some relationship to the average return on fixed deposit.

Very generally speaking, the DY of share we want to invest in ought to fall roughly within the range of 2-6%. Investors are willing to accept lower DY for shares with faster growing DPS/EPS and vice versa. We ought to buy share with DY of less than 1.5% only in exceptional circumstances.

The DY range is the minimum and maximum DY for a given year calculated using the highest and lowest prices for a given year. This information allows investors to relate the current DY to the range of DY experienced by the share in the past. Ideally, the DY at the price which one is considering buying the share should be at worst be in the middle of its past range. Thus, we always ought to check the historical range of DY before the purchase of a share. If the DY is too low, we ought to be very careful.

8. Adjusted PER Range

PER is probably the most commonly used ratio for evaluating the worth of a share. SPG does not recommend its use by laymen as strongly as DY because in Malaysia, EPS tend to fluctuate a great deal and as a result this makes the resultant PER less stable and difficult to use.

PER is an important ratio because it gives us a quick idea of, in a sense, how quickly an investor can get back his money in the form of earnings after buying the shares. A share purchased at a PER of 33 would mean that the purchase price is 33 times larger than the current earnings capacity of the share one is buying. That is, if the EPS stays unchanged, it would take 33 years for the earnings to equate to the buying price. For this reason, SPG does not recommend the purchase of a share at PER of much greater than 20 in normal circumstances.

Although the use of PER seems simple, there are several problems in the use of PER which render it not very usable by laymen at times. The first problem is that owing to the lack of stability of EPS for many Malaysian shares, there are years when the EPS is very low. When that happens, the computed PER is very high. This would make the share seem very expensive for that particular year. However, the high PER is only due to the abnormally low EPS for a single year and cannot be taken as representative of the average situation. The same problem in reverse occurs if the EPS is exceptionally high. Ideally, the concept of PER is only applicable if the share has very stable EPS or if the PER is computed using some sort of average or normalised EPS. The second problem, is that, whenever the EPS of a share is negative, it is not possible to calculate a meaningful PER figure.

As with the DY range, the PER range is the range of PER for a given year calculated using the highest and lowest prices for a given year. The reason for providing this information is that investors can relate the current PER to the range of PER experienced by the share in the past. Ideally, the PER at the price which one is considering buying the share should be at worst in the middle of their past ranges. Thus we ought to check the historical range of PER before the purchase of a share. If the PER is high by historical standard we ought to be doubly careful. In a company where its EPS had been volatile, PER range is not as useful as in the case of a company with stable EPS. A PER ratio towards the low end of its historical PER range would seem to suggest that its valuation is low at this price level

Non-Annual Critical Market Information

9. 5 and 10-year Growth Rates for Price, DPS and EPS

Serious investors pay a lot of attention to the growth rates of price, EPS and DPS. Growth rates over a long period (5 and 10 years)overcome the problem of cyclical fluctuations in earnings, dividend and price.

These growth rates provide three useful types of information. First, a comparison of the growth rate of price against those of earnings and dividends gives the investors a clue to the sustainability and valuations level of the current price. Second, a comparison of the growth rate of dividend against earnings give a clue of the sustainability of the current dividend. Averaging the growth rates of the high and low prices give some idea of the growth rate of the mid-range price. Once you have the growth rate of the mid-range price, you can then compare it with the growth rates of the EPS and DPS. If its price has been growing at a very much faster rate than earnings and dividend, it probably cannot be sustained. Similar comment would apply to a comparison of the dividend and earnings growth rate.

Third, the growth rates of the EPS and DPS provides us with a useful measure of the management quality of the company. If we compare its growth rates with those of other companies in similar line of business, a better than average growth rate would signify above average management quality.

When using these figures, investors are cautioned to be aware of the fact that things in recent years may be very different from those of earlier years. Although a company's ten year EPS or DPS growth rate may be good, its actual performance over the last five years could have been lacklustre due to the Asian Crisis. It would be risky to evaluate it on its average five or ten years' growth rate alone. (Therefore, need to study the individual years data too).

10. Average Values of 5-Year & 10-Year DY Range and PER Range

The reason for providing this type of information is to aid the users in determining whether the current price of a stocks is reasonable compared with the historical records. Ideally, the DY and PER ranges provide guidelines as to the expected ranges of a stock's future DY and PER. One should not purchase a stock if its DY is far below or the PER far above the historical range. The previous statement however must be applied with care if the current DPS/EPS is not normal. In an abnormal year, excessively low DPS or EPS can give rise to false readings in terms of the DY/PER. One should always refer to the 5- and 10-year growth rates for DPS/EPS to see whether the current level of DPS/EPS is in line with previous years figures. Otherwise, one should use the average DPS and EPS for the computation of the DY or PER.




Ref:
How to use the Stock Performance Guide (SPG)
Stock Performance Guide by Dynaquest Sdn. Bhd.

When to buy a stock?

In trying to decide when to buy a stock, an investor has to take into consideration several factors:-

  1. How does the present price compare with the historical prices?
  2. How does the price trend compare with its earnings and dividend trends?
  3. Is the current EPS and/or DPS unusually high or low?
  4. At the current price, how do the PER and DY compare with the historical PER and DY ranges?
  5. Does the present price look reasonable compared with the historical price or does it look too high or too low?


Ref:
How to use the Stock Performance Guide (SPG)
Stock Performance Guide by Dynaquest Sdn. Bhd.

Which stock to buy?

In trying to decide which stock to buy, an investor has to take into consideration the following factors:-

  1. What are the trends of the earnings and dividend of the stock?
  2. How well does the price trend correclate with the earnings and dividend trend?
  3. Is there a divergence between earnings and dividend?
  4. How volatile has the share price been in the past?
  5. How do the present PER and DY of the stock compared with the PER and DY of other stocks in the same sector?
  6. What are the prospects of the stock?


Ref:
How to use the Stock Performance Guide (SPG)
Stock Performance Guide by Dynaquest Sdn. Bhd.

What stock am I buying?

In trying to answer the above question, the investor has to find out certain important things about the stock, principally:-

  1. Who are the principal shareholders and officers of the company? Are they well known? Well connected?
  2. Do they have long experience and good reputation? Are other companies in the group good performers?
  3. What activity/ies is the company involved in?
  4. How good is the management of the company?
  5. How well is each segment of the company doing?
  6. What is the capital of the company?
  7. What is the financial strength and liquidity of the company?

Ref:
How to use the Stock Performance Guide (SPG)
Stock Performance Guide by Dynaquest Sdn. Bhd.

Buffett's Rules for Success

  1. Ascertain the true quality of a company and its top managers.

  2. Stockholders are not managers. They should leave the running of a firm to competent managers with integrity.

  3. Don't invest in businesses you don't understand.

  4. Give help and advice if they want it, but let the managers make their own decisions.

  5. Never, ever break the law.

  6. Owners are owners and managers are managers - but they should work as partners.

  7. Keep your distance from the market. You'll understand the business better!

Warren Buffett has turned value investing into an art form, piling up the world's second largest individual fortune and persuading millions to mimic the low-tech, buy-and-hold style of stock picking he practices at Berkshire Hathaway.

Emulate Warren Buffett - be an ace stockpicker and an empire-builder too. :-)

Tuesday 4 August 2009

An occasional rumination

For those who remained invested during the bear market, the recent up-trend in the market has been very rewarding. Those in this envious position are sitting on a profit buffer.

The severe bear market has resulted in a large amount of cash pulled out of stocks. The recent few months saw investors moving these cash into stocks. The pace was slow initially, but the prices have risen fast. However, it is my guess that a lot of money is still waiting to jump into stock. Some may be waiting for a correction. Perhaps, others maybe impatient seeing the prices going up almost daily.

History has shown that more people lost money in a bull market than in a bear market.