Wednesday 11 April 2012

Worthy of a look?


Not sexy, high growth or hot stock.

Warning:  May not be in your "circle of competence."

Look at things that are temporary out of favour.

You wish to buy when the prices are falling or close to the bottom.

You should have a tough time trying to buy something that is NOT near its 52 weeks low.



Worthy of a look?


Moat?Thumbs Up

Cheap?Thumbs Up

Margin of safety?Thumbs Up

Inside my circle!Thumbs Up


Outcome:

No list
Watch list
Yes list

A large percentage of companies are too difficult to analyse, they are outside your circle of competence.  

Concentrated Ideas

"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing."

-  Warren Buffett


Note:  Focus concentration of about 10% in each stock.  Anything stock that is less than 5% may not be worth your effort.

Margin of Safety

"Confronted with a like challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, MARGIN OF SAFETY."

- Ben Graham

Mr. Market

Stock prices are quotes from an emotionally unstable business partner.

Use or ignore them as you see fit.

Valuing a Business

"The critical investment factor is determining the intrinsic value of a business and paying a fair or bargain price."

- Warren Buffett

Moats

Low cost producer
Switching costs
Economies of scale
Intangibles
Regulatory
IP (Intellectual Property)
Network effects


Note:  Most companies do not have moat.  They can only survive and compete through being more efficient.

Circle of Competence

If we have a strength, it is in recognizing when we are operating well within our circle of competence and when we are approaching the perimeter.

Warren Buffett

Value Investing












Cale Smith, portfolio manager at Islamorada Investment Management, gives a talk on value investing at the New Jersey Institute of Technology in 2010.http://www.islainvest.com for more.

Introduction to Value Investing

How to Pick Your Investment Style

The Best of Value Investing

How to Value a Company in 3 Easy Steps

Valuing Stocks and Bonds




Financial Statements Explained

Consolidated Financial Statements

How to Choose Dividend Stocks - Morningstar

Sunday 8 April 2012

How To Improve Your Value Investing Returns

Do you really have the courage of your own convictions?

If you're a value investor, how concentrated is your portfolio? And how concentrated do you think it should be?
This is a tough call. The more concentrated, the riskier, but the better your potential returns, of course.
It all depends how and where you're finding that value and how conspicuous it is. If you found during last year's slump, for example, that you lost a huge percentage of your wealth on paper, then you may be too concentrated. The receding tide took almost all boats with it. Then again, if you had the courage of your value convictions and had done all the research you possibly could, perhaps this was an averaging down opportunity?
As Warren Buffett has said: "Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market." And as his partner Charlie Munger says, proper allocation of capital is an investor's number one job.

Decide what is right for you

So it's important to get share allocation right in the first place -- and at a level that is right for you.
I've looked before at whether there's a correct number of stocks to own, which also spawned a useful debate; each to his own here. No-one else can really make this decision for you. But if you're too diversified, you're unlikely to beat the market.
Warren Buffett's value investing mentor, Ben Graham, wrote of a portfolio strategy with a mixture of shares and bonds with a maximum of 75% shares and 25% bonds when share prices are low and demonstrating good value -- and vice-versa (25% shares, 75% bonds) when share prices are high.
Often, investors not sufficiently diversified and overly confident in the good times suffer scary losses in the bad and are unable to take advantage of buying opportunities due to insufficient funds.
The problem is made worse by the inherent psychological tendency many investors are shown to have of being too quick to take small profits and to run with the herd. Whereas, with true value stocks (profitable companies with solid assets and cash, priced well below price to tangible book value) you certainly don't want to be a forced seller. Instead, the opposite is true; you want to be able to take advantage of generalised market sentiment taking the price illogically lower.
Of course, it may well be that there has been news that shifts a company's intrinsic value, which then needs to be reassessed. If the margin of safety is no longer sufficient, then it may have to be sold at a loss; not all value shares come good, and this is a vital consideration.

Improving your value returns

I was interested to read a paper on value investing by Schroder from last November (a PDF). It makes for fascinating reading and demonstrates what value investors already know to be true.
Here are a few brief insights:
  • What you pay, not the growth you get, is the biggest driver of whether you make money.
  • Focus on exploiting what we CAN know (valuation) and not what we CAN'T (the macro).
  • Focus on areas that offer compelling value -- the greatest driver of long-term returns.
  • Being different is usually uncomfortable but often profitable.
  • Understanding balance sheet risk and income growth is as important as a high yield.
Interestingly, as an aside, the paper also looks at contrarian sectors offering best value from last September, with Homebuilders, Insurance and Banks seeming to offer the best opportunities.

Andrew Tobias advised (as paraphrased by Peter Lynch): "Don't put all your eggs in one basket. It may have a hole in it." Instead, Lynch urges private investors not to rely on a fixed number of stocks, but to investigate how good they are on a case-by-case basis. He goes on to advise us: "In small portfolios, I'd be comfortable owning between three and ten stocks." Of course, he was more interested in earnings growth than out and out value.
The bottom line for me is that a value portfolio should be concentrated into a few well-researched shares, but not at the cost of too much risk, as I like to sleep at night.

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2012/04/04/how-to-improve-your-value-investing-returns.aspx?source=ufwflwlnk0000001

Saturday 7 April 2012

Financial Intelligence by Adam Khoo

Carlsberg versus Dutch Lady (A Comparative Study)


7.4.2012 3.4.2012
Carlsberg Dutch Lady
Income Statement
31/12/2011 31/12/2011
RM (m) RM (m)
Revenue 1,489.36 810.65
COGS 505.53
Gross Profit 304.47
Operating Profit 216.036 139.372
Financing costs -4.385 -0.919
PBT 220.374 141.553
PAT 167.38 108.082
EPS (basic) sen 54.35 168.88
EPS (diluted) sen
Balance Sheet
NCA 591.354 74.048
CA 369.504 324.465
Total Assets 960.858 398.513
Total Equity 631.049 259.154
NCL 76.033 4.051
CL 253.776 135.308
Total Liabilities 329.809 139.359
Total Eq + Liab 960.858 398.513
Net assets per share 2.060 4.05
Cash & Eq 72.196 193.143
LT Borrowings 0 0
ST Borrowings 22.251 0
Net Cash 49.945 193.143
Inventories 62.538 93.448
Trade receivables 231.108 36.713
Trade payables 214.185 121.831
Quick Ratio 1.21 1.71
Current Ratio 1.46 2.40
Cash flow statement
PBT 220.374 141.553
OPBCWC 253.167
Cash from Operations 197.728 188.290
Net CFO 154.537 161.940
CFI -21.577 -7.135
CFF -162.735 -47.319
Capex -27.701 -10.882
FCF 126.836 151.058
Dividends paid -127.268 -46.400
DPS (sen) 41.63 72.5
No of ord shares (m)
basic 305.748 64
diluted
Financial Ratios
Gross Profit Margin 0.00% 37.56%
Net Profit Margin 11.24% 13.33%
Asset Turnover 1.55 2.03
Financial Leverage 1.52 1.54
ROA 17.42% 27.12%
ROC 28.80% 163.73%
ROE 26.52% 41.71%
Valuation 7.4.2012 3.4.2012
Price  10.74 36
Market cap (m) 3283.73 2304.00
P/E 19.62 21.32
P/BV 5.20 8.89
P/FCF 25.89 15.25
P/Div 25.80 49.66
DPO ratio 0.76 0.43
EY 5.10% 4.69%
FCF/P 3.86% 6.56%
DY 3.88% 2.01%
DIO   (Days) #DIV/0! 67
DSO  (Days) 57 17
DPO  (Days) #DIV/0! 88
CCC   (Days) #DIV/0! -4

Winners Take Calculated Risks! The Power of Leverage. By Adam Khoo



Accounting Lectures (Video)

PIE historical financial data

Financial Intelligence is one of the most important skills to acquire - Robert Kiyosaki


Wednesday 4 April 2012

Duels for the family jewels

Duels for the family jewels
April 4, 2012

Melda Donnelly
Prepared ... Melda Donnelly has planned to provide for her family. Photo: Domino Postiglione
Trusts are designed to protect assets but it can be a bit rich when the kids want out, writes Barbara Drury.

Family trusts are a time-honoured way for successful individuals to put a fence around their wealth and protect it from outside threats and prying eyes. But it seems that such a trust can't protect a family from itself.

In recent months some of Australia's wealthiest families have been displaying their dirty laundry in full view of the neighbours. The mining magnate, Gina Rinehart, is resisting an attempt by her children to have her removed as trustee of the multibillion dollar family trust. And the billionaire retailer, Solomon Lew, is fighting legal attempts by the estranged spouses of two of his children to get a share of the $621 million family trust.

These fights over the hereditary silver are proof that the trusts are assailable (more on that later) but that does not mean they are not a valuable wealth-management tool.

<i>Illustration: Karl Hilzinger</i>
Close to the chest … increasingly, the Family Court is considering trusts as marital property. Illustration: Karl Hilzinger

In fact, Australians with far less wealth than Rinehart or Lew are embracing them in ever greater numbers. In 2009, 660,000 trusts lodged tax returns with the Australian Tax Office, a 50 per cent increase in less than a decade.

The main advantages of family trusts (see box) are to protect family and business assets, not just during a lifetime but beyond the grave, and to reduce tax, in that order.

A family trust specialist, Bernie O'Sullivan of Bernie O'Sullivan Lawyers, says many of his clients are professionals who set up family trusts to protect themselves from future litigation.

''In the event they are sued, money transferred into a family trust no longer belongs to them. Rather, it belongs to the trust so it is out of reach of potential creditors,'' he says.

But let's not forget the tax benefits.

One of the key ones is that the trustee can distribute income earned on assets inside the trust to other family members, taking full advantage of each member's tax status and $6000 tax-free threshold.

Capital gains generated by the trust are distributed to the beneficiaries as income. This might be from the sale of assets or distributions from managed investments inside the trust.

The beneficiaries pay tax on the income and can claim the normal 50 per cent discount if the asset was held for more than 12 months.

''Provided the trust deed allows, you can stream different types of income to different beneficiaries,'' O'Sullivan says.

For instance, you can distribute capital gains to a beneficiary who can offset them against existing capital losses, distribute income to beneficiaries on low marginal tax rates, or distribute income with franking credits to the family member who can benefit most from them.

''The trustee has full discretion whether to distribute income and capital, to whom and in what proportion,'' O'Sullivan says. ''If they choose not to distribute income, it will be taxed to the trustee [inside the trust] at the top marginal tax rate.''

This is rarely ideal, O'Sullivan says, as trusts would usually be better off distributing ''excess'' income to a corporate beneficiary, which pays tax at the company rate of 30 per cent.

Another benefit of family trusts is that they allow assets to be passed from one generation to the next and capital gains tax to be deferred for up to 80 years. But this can cause problems for beneficiaries when the ''vesting'' date arrives and the trust is pregnant with unrealised capital gains.

The HLB Mann Judd Sydney tax partner, Peter Bembrick, says when the trust vests, ''all assets have to be passed on to the beneficiaries''. ''Capital gains tax is more likely to be a problem if it has been holding assets for a very long time,'' he says.

Or if the trust is sitting on billions of dollars of iron ore assets. The dispute at the heart of the Rinehart family feud is Gina's unilateral decision, as trustee, to extend the life of the family trust by more than half a century from its original vesting date late last year. Three of her four children want their share of the trust's assets now but Rinehart argues the capital gains tax bill would bankrupt them.

In practice, many family trusts with more modest fortunes wind up early and by the second generation, family members will often go their own way.

''When you have three siblings, all with their own families or divorced, they often want to take their share and go their separate ways,'' Bembrick says. ''You have to balance the costs of taking assets out of the trust structure with the benefits of each person being able to control their own affairs.''

REGULATORY CHANGE

The vexed issue of the distribution of capital gains is one reason behind the federal government's planned reform of the taxation of trust income.

Bembrick says recent court decisions, including the Bamford versus Commissioner of Taxation case that went all the way to the High Court in 2010, have highlighted gaps between ancient trust law and modern tax law, especially where the distribution of capital gains is involved.

This, plus the recommendations of the Henry Tax Review, is behind the federal government's planned reform of the taxation of trust income.

A consultation paper was circulated last November with the aim of ''better aligning the concepts of distributable and taxable income''.

While the government stresses that it was not proposing a ''crackdown'' on family trusts and that trusts are still a legitimate structure to conduct personal and business affairs, Bembrick says the uncertainty has led some people to think that family trusts are not worth the risk.

''It is vital that the reforms lead to a system that is workable and provides certainty to beneficiaries and trustees of family trusts,'' Bembrick says.

''There's a popular perception that family trusts are just a way to rort the tax system but that does not appear to be the approach Treasury is taking.

''I don't think they are in danger of disappearing.''

But tax isn't the only area where trusts have not kept up with the times.

O'Sullivan says the protection offered by family trusts from a family law perspective is not as good as it once was. He says the Family Court is increasingly willing to consider treating an individual's interest in a family trust as being part of the property of their marriage.

''In recent times there have been more cases where people get divorced and there is very little marital property. In such cases, the Family Court might be more inclined to look to the family trust, if one exists. But there are ways of structuring a trust that offer greater protection,'' he says.

COSTS

Family trusts are not necessarily expensive to set up but the experts agree that you need to be well off to make the most of them.

O'Sullivan says it costs in the order of $600 to set up a family trust, plus ongoing fees associated with lodging an annual return. Additional costs kick in if you decide to have a corporate trustee. ''In total, ongoing costs can amount to $1000 a year or more,'' he says.

''Rarely would someone establish a trust for assets of only $100,000 but it's not uncommon to get started with that if it is expected to grow quickly.''

Regardless, O'Sullivan says anyone thinking of establishing a family trust, streaming income or distributing to corporate beneficiaries should always seek advice from their accountant or lawyer before doing so, as complex tax and succession-planning issues can arise.

A senior adviser at Donnelly Wealth Management, Russell Lees, normally only recommends a family trust where assets exceed $400,000.

''If a client's capital is reasonably high, we would consider a family trust and self-managed super and shuffle assets from the trust into super,'' he says.

''If a client is in their 30s or 40s, perhaps with their own business, they can't get access to money in super so they can use a family trust as an entity to hold money outside super.

''Trusts are a complicated beast. The holdings are more long-term and it doesn't dissolve at death, as super does. Even with a testamentary trust, you have to ask, 'is it worth it to direct $300,000 to a beneficiary?'''

The advantages of setting up any trust needs to be weighed up against the added cost and complexity of using the structure. You need to be satisfied that a trust will have real financial benefits for your family and not just provide a rich seam of fees for your advisers.



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/planning/duels-for-the-family-jewels-20120403-1w9w0.html#ixzz1r1Yy8vvI

Tuesday 3 April 2012

Nestle versus Dutch Lady (A Comparative Study)


3.4.2012 3.4.2012
Nestle Dutch Lady
Income Statement
31/12/2011 31/12/2011
RM (m) RM (m)
Revenue 4,700.99 810.65
Gross Profit 1,542.12 304.47
Operating Profit 579.428 139.372
Financing costs -21.398 -0.919
PBT 558.809 141.553
PAT 456.301 108.082
EPS (basic) sen 194.58 168.88
EPS (diluted) sen
Balance Sheet
NCA 987.259 74.048
CA 1015.064 324.465
Total Assets 2002.323 398.513
Total Equity 640.86 259.154
NCL 446.723 4.051
CL 914.74 135.308
Total Liabilities 1361.463 139.359
Total Eq + Liab 2002.323 398.513
Net assets per share 2.730 4.05
Cash & Eq 52.461 193.143
LT Borrowings 337.711 0
ST Borrowings 4.223 0
Net Cash -289.473 193.143
Inventories 517.573 93.448
Trade receivables 444.854 36.713
Trade payables 878.321 121.831
Quick Ratio 0.54 1.71
Current Ratio 1.11 2.40
Cash flow statement
PBT 558.809 141.553
OPBCWC 681.492
Cash from Operations 640.247 188.290
Net CFO 581.844 161.940
CFI -90.683 -7.135
CFF -461.013 -47.319
Capex -93.015 -10.882
FCF 488.829 151.058
Dividends paid -398.650 -46.400
DPS (sen) 180.00 72.5
No of ord shares (m)
basic 234.5 64
diluted
Financial Ratios
Gross Profit Margin 32.80% 37.56%
Net Profit Margin 9.71% 13.33%
Asset Turnover 2.35 2.03
Financial Leverage 3.12 1.54
ROA 22.79% 27.12%
ROC 49.05% 163.73%
ROE 71.20% 41.71%
Valuation 3.4.2012 3.4.2012
Price  55.9 36
Market cap (m) 13108.55 2304.00
P/E 28.73 21.32
P/BV 20.45 8.89
P/FCF 26.82 15.25
P/Div 32.88 49.66
DPO ratio 0.87 0.43
EY 3.48% 4.69%
FCF/P 3.73% 6.56%
DY 3.04% 2.01%

MBMR versus Dutch Lady (A Comparative Study)


3.4.2012 3.4.2012
MBMR Dutch Lady
Income Statement
31/12/2011 31/12/2011
RM (m) RM (m)
Revenue 1,752.30 810.65
Gross Profit 132.71 304.47
Operating Profit 41.998 139.372
Financing costs 1.556 -0.919
PBT 151.099 141.553
PAT 138.053 108.082
EPS (basic) sen 49.77 168.88
EPS (diluted) sen 49.25
Balance Sheet
NCA 1257.34 74.048
CA 775.88 324.465
Total Assets 2033.22 398.513
Total Equity 1307.129 259.154
NCL 373.477 4.051
CL 352.614 135.308
Total Liabilities 726.091 139.359
Total Eq + Liab 2033.22 398.513
Net assets per share 4.550 4.05
Cash & Eq 247.398 193.143
LT Borrowings 371.459 0
ST Borrowings 57.292 0
Net Cash -181.353 193.143
Inventories 251.154 93.448
Trade receivables 264.329 36.713
Trade payables 286.406 121.831
Quick Ratio 1.49 1.71
Current Ratio 2.20 2.40
Cash flow statement
PBT 151.099 141.553
OPBCWC 53.903
Cash from Operations  - 188.290
Net CFO 0.802 161.940
CFI# -291.327 -7.135
CFF 355.727 -47.319
#Acquisition sub  -311.791
Capex -27.114 -10.882
FCF -26.312 151.058
Dividends paid -33.995 -46.400
DPS (sen) 14.00 72.5
No of ord shares (m)
basic 242.864 64
diluted 245.429
Financial Ratios
Gross Profit Margin 7.57% 37.56%
Net Profit Margin 7.88% 13.33%
Asset Turnover 0.86 2.03
Financial Leverage 1.56 1.54
ROA 6.79% 27.12%
ROC 9.27% 163.73%
ROE 10.56% 41.71%
Valuation 3.4.2012 3.4.2012
Price  4.76 36.08
Market cap (m) 1156.03 2309.12
P/E 8.37 21.36
P/BV 0.88 8.91
P/FCF -43.94 15.29
P/Div 34.01 49.77
DPO ratio 0.25 0.43
EY 11.94% 4.68%
FCF/P -2.28% 6.54%
DY 2.94% 2.01%


23.3.2012
It is thus not surprising that MBMR announced thus:
NEW ISSUE OF SECURITIES (CHAPTER 6 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS): COMBINATION OF NEW ISSUE OF SECURITIES

MBM RESOURCES BERHAD (“MBMR” OR THE “COMPANY”)

(I) PROPOSED BONUS ISSUE; AND
(II) PROPOSED RIGHTS ISSUE WITH WARRANTS 

Aeon versus Dutch Lady (A Comparative Study)


3.4.2012 3.4..2012
Aeon Dutch Lady
Income Statement
31/12/2011 31/12/2011
RM (m) RM (m)
Revenue 2,984.61 810.65
Gross Profit - 304.47
Operating Profit 271.775 139.372
Financing costs 0 -0.919
PBT 277.272 141.553
PAT 195.353 108.082
EPS (basic) sen 55.66 168.88
EPS (diluted) sen
Balance Sheet
NCA 1674.326 74.048
CA 763.156 324.465
Total Assets 2437.482 398.513
Total Equity 1287.91 259.154
NCL 21.146 4.051
CL 1128.426 135.308
Total Liabilities 1149.572 139.359
Total Eq + Liab 2437.482 398.513
Net assets per share 3.669 4.05
Cash & Eq 341.052 193.143
LT Borrowings 0 0
ST Borrowings 0 0
Net Cash 341.052 193.143
Inventories 353.555 93.448
Trade receivables 68.549 36.713
Trade payables 1108.504 121.831
Quick Ratio 0.36 1.71
Current Ratio 0.68 2.40
Cash flow statement
PBT 277.272 141.553
OPBCWC 414.932
Cash from Operations 447.334 188.290
Net CFO 356.860 161.940
CFI -304.594 -7.135
CFF -42.122 -47.319
Capex -315.131 -10.882
FCF 41.729 151.058
Dividends paid -42.120 -46.400
DPS (sen) 12.00 72.5
No of ord shares (m)
basic 351 64
diluted
Financial Ratios
Gross Profit Margin #VALUE! 37.56%
Net Profit Margin 6.55% 13.33%
Asset Turnover 1.22 2.03
Financial Leverage 1.89 1.54
ROA 8.01% 27.12%
ROC 20.63% 163.73%
ROE 15.17% 41.71%
Valuation 3.4.2012 3.4.2012
Price  9.5 36.08
Market cap (m) 3334.50 2309.12
P/E 17.07 21.36
P/BV 2.59 8.91
P/FCF 79.91 15.29
P/Div 79.17 49.77
DPO ratio 0.22 0.43
EY 5.86% 4.68%
FCF/P 1.25% 6.54%
DY 1.26% 2.01%