Sunday 6 January 2019

How does the bear market affect my investments?



Generally, a bear market will cause the securities you already own to become undervalued. The decline in their value may be sudden, or it may be prolonged over the course of time, but the end result is the same: What you already own is worth less [according to the market.] 


This leads to two fundamental truths: 
1.) A bear market is only bad if you plan on selling your stock or need your money immediately. 
2.) Falling stock prices and depressed markets are the friends of the long-term investor. 

In other words, if you invest with the intent to hold your investments for years down the road, a bear market is a great opportunity to buy. [It always amazes me that the "experts" advocate selling after the market has fallen. The time to sell was before your stocks lost value. If they know everything about your money, why they didn't warn you the crash was coming in the first place?] 


So what do I do with my money in a bear market? 

The first thing you need to do is to look for companies and funds that are going to be fine ten or twenty years down the road. If the market crashed tomorrow and caused Gillette's stock price to fall 30%, people are still going to buy razors. The basics of the business haven't changed. 


This proves the third fundamental truth of the market: 

3.) You must learn to separate the stock price from the underlying business. They have very little to do with each other over the short-term. 

When you understand this, you will see falling stock markets like a clearance sale at your favorite furniture store... load up on it while you can, because before long, the prices will go back up to normal levels.

This Expert Called the Market Plunge. Here’s What He Sees in 2019.

This Expert Called the Market Plunge. Here’s What He Sees in 2019.

The New York Stock Exchange last month, the worst December for stocks since 1931. James Stack, president of InvesTech Research, is anticipating a bear market.CreditHiroko Masuike/The New York Times
Image
The New York Stock Exchange last month, the worst December for stocks since 1931. James Stack, president of InvesTech Research, is anticipating a bear market.CreditCreditHiroko Masuike/The New York Times
A year ago, in the wake of President Trump’s tax cut, euphoric investors pushed the Dow Jones industrial average past 25,000, a record. The Dow had just gained 25 percent in 2017, and the Nasdaq had leapt 28 percent. Volatility was so low that there wasn’t a single day in 2017 when the S&P 500 fluctuated more than 2 percent.
Not everyone was celebrating.
“If there are any certainties, one will be that this party will eventually come to an end,” James Stack, president of InvesTech Research, told me a year ago. “And when it ends, it will end badly, and with high volatility.”
Mr. Stack turned out to be right. He lowered his recommended asset allocation for United States stocks from 82 percent last January to 72 percent in September, when stocks hit new all-time highs. He urged investors to raise cash in October, and at the end of November he recommended an even more defensive posture — including putting money in a fund whose value would rise when stock prices dropped. That brought his recommended net exposure to stocks to just 55 percent, the lowest since the depths of the last bear market in early 2009.
Stocks plunged in December, posting their worst monthly loss since the financial crisis and the worst December since 1931 and the Great Depression.
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Yet most economic indicators are benign. Unemployment is an exceptionally low 3.7 percent. Wages are rising. Inflation remains below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. The Fed raised rates a quarter point in December, citing “a very healthy economy.”
Given Mr. Stack’s track record last year, I reached out to him this week for his current views. Even though valuations have come down and macroeconomic indicators “have remained remarkably strong,” he said, he’s still defensive and hasn’t changed his bearish allocation. He believes that the worst isn’t over and that the Dow and S&P 500 will soon be down 20 percent from their peaks, retreating into a bear market. (The Nasdaq Composite and the Wilshire 2000 index of small-cap stocks are already there.)
And that was before a revenue warning from Apple sent markets into another steep fall on Thursday.
“A lesson from history is that the market leads the economy by a lot longer than investors realize,” Mr. Stack said. If the economy is headed toward recession, as the latest stock market declines suggest it may be, “we won’t see the first economic warning signs until the first three to five months” of 2019. Among the leading indicators he’s watching for signs of weakness are consumer confidence, housing starts and unemployment claims.
On Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, fell sharply. That suggests that “serious cracks” are starting to appear in the economy, Mr. Stack said.
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Mr. Stack is right that bear markets typically precede recessions by many months: CNBC calculated in 2016 that bear markets since World War II had begun on average about eight months before a recession. That means that if a bear market did begin after major indexes peaked last fall, a recession might not start until June or even later. Even then, recessions are often over before economic data confirms their existence.
That’s when bear markets are, in fact, followed by recessions, which often isn’t the case. As the economist Paul Samuelson famously said, “The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.”
Since World War II, there have been 13 bear markets. They were followed within a year by a recession just seven times. As a predictor of recessions with just 54 percent accuracy, bear markets are little better than flipping a coin.
Indeed, Mr. Stack’s data show that two down years in a row are quite rare: There have been only four instances since 1928, suggesting that stocks may well be in positive territory by the end of 2019, even if a bear market does materialize in the meantime.
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Which is one reason the Wharton economist Jeremy Siegel told me that he’s bullish on the stock market this year. He predicts it could rise between 5 percent and 15 percent, even if there is an economic slowdown.
Stocks are much cheaper now than they were before the December sell-off. The ratio between stock prices and projected earnings for companies in the S&P 500 is about 17, down from over 19 a year ago and the lowest in the past five years.
[Stocks rose Friday after the release of a strong December jobs report and comments by the chairman of the Federal Reserve that the central bank would be flexible on raising interest rates this year.]
Mr. Stack, however, argued that in the event of an economic downturn — or even a significant slowdown — “those projected earnings will go out the window.”
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“I would not call today’s market undervalued,” he added.
Mr. Siegel bases his forecast of a market rally on the belief that the Fed will stop raising short-term interest rates. “I think the Fed got the message from the markets that it should not have hiked in December,” he said.
Mr. Stack, too, said he was surprised the Fed raised rates in December. “I think the Fed will stand down and put future rate increases on hold,” he said, “which could stabilize the market, at least for the time being.”
But Mr. Stack’s technical indicators are still pointing toward a bear market. He’s also worried about the shaky housing market, with price drops and slowing sales showing up in major cities.
“We’re not trying to time the market, but we’re very comfortable with our defensive allocation,” he said. Although he predicted higher volatility a year ago, he was nonetheless surprised by the extremes reached in December, without even “a single hard warning sign of recession on the horizon.”
“Can you imagine,” he asked, “how volatile it will be when we do have those warnings?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/04/business/market-forecast-2019.html

Wednesday 19 December 2018

What is a bear market and what causes them?

By definition, a bear market is when the stock market falls for a prolonged period of time, usually by twenty percent or more. It is the opposite of a bull market. This sharp decline in stock prices is normally due to a decrease in corporate profits, or a correction of overvaluation [i.e., stocks were way too expensive and needed to fall to more reasonable levels]. Investors who are scared by these lower earnings or lofty valuations sell their stock - causing the price to drop. This causes other investors to worry about losing the money they've invested, so they sell as well... and the vicious cycle begins.

One of the best examples of such an unfriendly market is the 1970's, when stocks went sideways for well over a decade. Experiences such as these are generally what scare would-be investors away from investing [which, ironically, keeps the bear market alive... since there are no buyers purchasing investments, the selling continues.]


How do they affect my investments?

Generally, a bear market will cause the securities you already own to become undervalued. The decline in their value may be sudden, or it may be prolonged over the course of time, but the end result is the same: What you already own is worth less [according to the market.]


This leads to two fundamental truths:
1.) A bear market is only bad if you plan on selling your stock or need your money immediately.
2.) Falling stock prices and depressed markets are the friends of the long-term investor.

In other words, if you invest with the intent to hold your investments for years down the road, a bear market is a great opportunity to buy. [It always amazes me that the "experts" advocate selling after the market has fallen. The time to sell was before your stocks lost value. If they know everything about your money, why they didn't warn you the crash was coming in the first place?]


So what do I do with my money in a bear market?

The first thing you need to do is to look for companies and funds that are going to be fine ten or twenty years down the road. If the market crashed tomorrow and caused Gillette's stock price to fall 30%, people are still going to buy razors. The basics of the business haven't changed.


This proves the third fundamental truth of the market:
3.) You must learn to separate the stock price from the underlying business. They have very little to do with each other over the short-term.
When you understand this, you will see falling stock markets like a clearance sale at your favorite furniture store... load up on it while you can, because before long, the prices will go back up to normal levels.




Additional notes:

Fear Index

What are you doing with your money?

-  I'm buying stocks while they are cheap.
-  I'm staying put in the market for the long-term.
-  I'm taking some money out of stocks. I don't want to risk everything.
-  I'm selling all stocks and moving to CDs.
-  I'm in a panic. Where's the nearest mattress?

Tuesday 11 December 2018

Another milestone - TOTAL PAGEVIEWS 3,033,886 (1.8.2008 - 11.12.2018) Hope my readers have benefited too. Thanks.

11.12.2018

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VALUE OF AN ASSET

From The Essays of Warren Buffett: “In Theory of Investment Value, written over 50 years ago, John Burr Williams set forth the equation for value, which we condense here: The value of any stock, bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows—discounted at an appropriate interest rate—that can be expected to occur during the lifetime of the asset.”

My Investing Philosophy

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1.8.2008

My first article in this blog

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/08/investment-policies-based-on-benjamin.html

FRIDAY, 1 AUGUST 2008


Investment Policies (Based on Benjamin Graham)

Summary of Investment Policies

A. INVESTMENT FOR FIXED INCOME:
US Savings Bonds (FDs or Amanah Sahams for Malaysians)

B. INVESTMENT FOR INCOME, MODERATE LONG-TERM APPRECIATION AND PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION:
(1) INVESTMENT FUNDS bought at reasonable price.
(2) Diversified list of primary common stocks (BLUE CHIPS) bought at reasonable price. 

C. INVESTMENT CHIEFLY FOR PROFIT: 4 approaches are open to both the small and the large investors:
(1) Representative common stocks bought when the MARKET level is clearly LOW.
(2) GROWTH STOCKS, when these can be obtained at reasonable prices in relation to actual accomplishment – GROWTH INVESTING.
(3) Purchase of securities selling well BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE – VALUE INVESTING.
(4) Purchase of WELL-SECURED PRIVILEGED SENIOR ISSUES (bonds and preferred shares).
(5) SPECIAL SITUATIONS: Mergers, arbitrages, cash pay-outs.

D. SPECULATION:
(1) Buying stock in new or virtually new ventures (IPOs) .(2) TRADING in the market.
(3) Purchase of "GROWTH STOCKS" at GENEROUS PRICES.

LEGENDS OF TRADING: THE STORY OF JESSE LIVERMORE




@15.20   Jesse Livermore's trading rules

The Rich Invest for Cash Flow. The Others Aim for Capital Gains.


DECEMBER 8, 2018

Have you lost money or got burnt from an ‘investment’?



Perhaps, you did. It can be painful. The level of hurt or ego bruised depends on how emotionally attached you are with money.

For years, I have received private emails where readers shared their failures on ‘investing’. Many were disappointed. Here, I’ll list down some of their blunders when it comes to ‘investing’:

– I lost 16% from my unit trust investment.

– My stock portfolio is downed by 30% in 6 months.

– I bought Bitcoin when it was US$ 11,000. Now, it is US$ 3,300.

– I am still trying to sell my property. The mortgage is now ‘eating me alive’.



Perhaps, you may share some of the same experiences as mentioned above. If you did, let us think for a moment: ‘Why did you make that ‘investment’ in the first place?’ ‘What was your objective at that point of time?’

Recently, I read a book, ‘Who Took My Money?’, written by Robert Kiyosaki. In Chapter 2, he shared the difference between a person who invest for cash flow and one who invest for capital gains. In most cases, their difference lies in their mindset and words spoken. For instance,



Words of a Cash Flow Investor

– I received an average of 5% dividend yield from my stock investment.

– The gross rental yield from my investment property is 4% per annum.

– ABC Bhd has made RM 0.50 in EPS in 2018, up from RM 0.45 in 2017.



Words of a Capital Gains ‘Investor’

– I bought BCD Bhd at RM 0.50 and sold it for RM 1.00.

– I bought an under construction property for RM 300k and flipped it for RM 500k.

– I expect my unit trust to go up by 8% per annum.



The Common Denominator

As I read, I realised that the common denominator for failures and losses from an investment stems from one’s desire to achieve capital gains. Most made an investment hoping that ‘it will go up’ and not ‘produce cash flows regularly’. It has become a root cause for many heartaches, hurts and even sleepless nights.


How to Reduce Risk Significantly from Your Next Investment?

I believe, one of the answers is to have a greater appreciation of ‘cash flows’. It is cash flow that makes the rich truly rich and the wealthy truly wealthy. Here, I would share how the ultra-rich got themselves richer from the same vehicles of investment that most people invest into today.



Example 1: Who Makes Big Bucks from Unit Trust?

Is it the investors or the companies that are selling unit trust as an investment?

I think the answer is obvious. But, please be mindful that I am not here to start a blame game. Instead, my intention is to explain a major difference in mindset between unit trust investors and unit trust companies.

Think about it. Most bought unit trust because of promises of capital gains over the long-term. Very few, or none at all, is mentioned about its ability to bring in cash flow. Most agents promoted ‘dollar-cost-averaging’ as a smart investment strategy in unit trust. From it, millions of investors poured in millions or billions of Dollars per month into unit trust funds in search of ‘Capital Gains’.

So, what does it mean to unit trust companies?

Answer: Abundance in Cash Flows. First, they earn sales charges from each unit transacted from their investors. Second, they earn annual management fees on their unit trust funds regardless of their performances. If a fund made profits, it pays itself higher fees. If a fund incurred losses, it pays itself lesser fees.

It means, unit trust companies will ‘more or less’ guaranteed themselves stable sources of ‘Cash Flows’ regardless of how their funds performed in the future.

Let us use Public Mutual as an example to illustrate how an ultra-rich looks unit trust as an investment. Apart from sales charges and management fees, I found that a handful of its funds invest their investors’ money into Public Bank. This is brilliant as Public Bank is receiving tons of capital ‘interest-free’, which allows it to be well-capitalised. Hence, to an ultra-rich, unit trust is a Cash Flow Business and an effective vehicle to raise funds consistently.

I am not sure how well you did in your unit trust investments. But, as for Public Mutual, it has achieved CAGR of 15.3% in profits before tax (PBT) over the past 10 years. Its PBT had grown from RM 183.3 million in 2008 to RM 660.9 million in 2017.



Source: Annual Reports of Public Bank Bhd



Example 2: Why Value Investors Like Public Bank Bhd?

Answer: Abundance of Cash Flows.

For a start, most ‘investors’ are not really investing. They are trading, gambling, or speculating. How do I know? Simple. If I asked, ‘Why did you buy the stock?’ and his reply is, ‘I expected it go up because its stock price went up or down by 20% or 30%.’, then I know, chances are, he is a speculator or gambler.

Investors view stocks as businesses. Investing is about being a part-owner of an enterprise. Instead of chasing stock prices, investors read annual reports. Why? Because they want to know, whether or not, the business is profitable and has the capability to generate ‘Cash Flows’ consistently.

Take a look at Public Bank Bhd. Its shareholders’ earnings have grown by CAGR of 8.7%, up from RM 2.6 billion in 2008 to RM 5.5 billion in 2017. If an investor bought shares of Public Bank at the start of 2008 and held it to today, he would have made total returns of 171.5%, consisting of 125.4% in capital gains and as much as 46.1% in dividend yields. Hence, it is ‘Cash Flows’ that leads to ‘Capital Gains’ for a savvy stock investor.


Source: Annual Reports of Public Bank Bhd





Source: Google Finance



Example #3: How to Build Wealth Faster than Flippers?

Let us use two men in their 30s as examples: Tom and Jerry.

Tom is a flipper. He had bought an under-construction property at RM 400,000 with the intention of selling it at RM 600,000 upon receiving his keys to his unit upon completion. 4 years later, he managed to dispose his unit for RM 600,000 after receiving his keys. After deducting a RPGT of 20%, his final gain works out to be RM 160,000. Awesome!

Jerry is an investor. He bought a property for RM 400,000 in a sub-sale market and rents it out for RM 1,400 a month. Based on a DSR calculation of 60%, the amount of monthly instalments Jerry is eligible for has increased by RM 840 a month. Based on the Rule of 200, Jerry’s mortgage eligibility would be revised upwards by another RM 168,000.

Unlike Tom, Jerry is able to ‘cash out’ the RM 168,000 to fund his purchase of a new property almost immediately without the need to sell his current property 4 years later at a higher price. Why? Because Jerry is receiving Cash Flows from his property and bankers are happy to extend mortgages to investors as rent is recognised as one of the viable sources of income.

This explains how property investors are able to keep on buying properties one after another. The answer lies in Good Cash Flow Management.



5 Lessons to be Learnt

In short, I hope that you have a much better appreciation about the differences between cash flow and capital gains and why the rich gets even richer and how most people lost money in their investments. Here, I’ll leave you with 5 lessons that could be learnt from this article:


  1. The Rich invests for Cash Flows. The Rest aim for Capital Gains.
  2. Never invest just because ‘it will go up.’
  3. Many lost money in an investment because of lack of skill, knowledge, and know-how but yet have a desire to achieve capital gains.
  4. Capital Gain Investors tend to handover money to Cash Flow Investors.
  5. Cash Flows often leads to Sustainable Capital Gains in the long run.



Ian Tai is the founder of Bursaking.com.my, a platform that empowers retail investors to build wealth through ownership of fundamentally solid stocks. It is an essential tool that sifts out stocks that grow profits consistently from a database of over 900+ stocks listed mainly in Malaysia.


Tongher

Tongher

Price 3.79 (10/12/2018)
Market Cap 601.38m
Shares Outstanding 157.43m
ttm-EPS RM 0.43
ttm-P/E  8.80



FY 2017

Income Statement

Revenue 694m
Gross Income 103.4m
EBIT 67.3m
Non-Op Income 17.3m
Interest Exp 1.8m
PBT 82.3m
PAT 57.4m

EPS RM 0.37


Balance Sheet

Cash 92.2m
ST Debt 96.6m
LT Debt 11.0m


AR 81.3m
AP 17.4m

Inventories 289.4m


Total CA 464.6m
Total CL 132.6m

CR 3.5
Quick Ratio 1.32


Total Liabilities 138.1m
Total Equity 473.6m
Total Assets 611.7m


Cash Flow Statement

Net Income 82.3m
D&A 16.5m
Funds from operations  80.7m
Net Operating Cash Flow  43.2m

Capex (5.9m)

Cash Dividends (58.8m)

FCF 37.3m
FCF Yield 6.2%.




ttm 30-9-2018

ttm-Revenue  797.4m
ttm-PAT 66.5m
ttm-EPS  RM 0.42

Monday 10 December 2018

Dutch Lady

Price 62.30 (10/12/2018)
Market Cap 4.05 Billion
ttm-EPS 1.88
P/E ttm 33.17



FY 2017

Income Statement

Revenue 1065m
Gross Income 401m
EBIT 228m
PBT 158m
PAT 118m

EPS 1.84


Balance Sheet

Cash 61.3m
ST Debt 0
LT Debt 0


AR 103.8m
AP 206.9m

Inventories 115.8m


Total CA 286.8m
Total CL 281.6

CR 1.02
Quick Ratio 0.61


Total Liabilities 290m
Total Equity 104m
Total Assets 394m


Cash Flow Statement

Funds from operations  43.2m
Net Operating Cash Flow  43.2m

Capex (16.3m)

Cash Dividends (179.2m)

FCF 27.5m
FCF Yield 0.68%.




ttm 30-9-2018

ttm-Revenue  1046.5m
ttm-PAT 120.1m
ttm-EPS 1.88