Being fearfully greedy: Why I buy in bear markets

To conclude, because we don’t know what will happen to prices in the short-term, we can only buy with a long-term goal in mind and hope we’re not hit by some true wealth destroying phenomena like nuclear war or a return to communism.

Greed and fear

Say you’re a young-ish investor like me, with 30 years of earnings ahead, yet already holding a reasonable portfolio.

If you’re fearfully greedy, then when markets are rising – as they did since 2003 – you’re glad your money was invested instead of spent on holidays and TVs.

That’s greed taken care of. (Greed is the easy bit!)

However, you should also be fearful of sudden reversals that rob you as quick as a pickpocket.

In the stock market, money disappears like in Tommy Cooper‘s magic tricks: “Just like that!”

Of course nobody is complacent when markets are consistently falling. Instead, the fear often gets overdone.

Yet if you’re young and well-positioned, you should be glad you’ve got the chance to buy the same shares you were buying last month for 10%, 20%, or even 50% less than before.

You’ll be scared, too. Your new ‘bargain’ shares could halve again in a truly vicious bear market.

The greedy bit is thinking about your future long-term gains. The fearful bit is not over-doing it in the short-term.

http://monevator.com/being-fearfully-greedy-why-i-buy-in-bear-markets/

### Attractive Buying Opportunities arise through a Variety of Causes

Attractive buying opportunities for the enterprising investor arise through a variety of causes.

The standard or recurrent reasons are
(a) a low level of the general market and
(b) the carrying to an extreme of popular disfavor toward individual issues. 

Sometimes, but much more rarely, we have the failure of the market to respond to an important improvement in the company's affairs and in the value of its stock.

Frequently, we find a discrepancy between price and value which arises from the public's failure to realise the true situation of a company - this in turn being due to some complicated aspects of accounting or corporate relationships.

It is the function of competent security analysis to unravel such complexities and to bring the true facts and values to light.


Benjamin Graham
Intelligent Investor


Summary:

Attractive buying opportunities (discrepancy between price and value) occur due to various causes:
1.  low level of the general market
2.  extreme of popular disfavour towards individual stocks
3.  failure of market to respond to improvement in the company
4.  failure to realise hidden value in the company due to some complicated aspects of accounting or corporate relationships

### Attractive Buying Opportunities arise through a Variety of Causes

Attractive buying opportunities for the enterprising investor arise through a variety of causes.

The standard or recurrent reasons are
(a) a low level of the general market and
(b) the carrying to an extreme of popular disfavor toward individual issues.

Sometimes, but much more rarely, we have the failure of the market to respond to an important improvement in the company's affairs and in the value of its stock.

Frequently, we find a discrepancy between price and value which arises from the public's failure to realise the true situation of a company - this in turn being due to some complicated aspects of accounting or corporate relationships.


It is the function of competent security analysis to unravel such complexities and to bring the true facts and values to light.


Benjamin Graham
Intelligent Investor


Summary:
Attractive buying opportunities (discrepancy between price and value) due to various causes:
1.  low level of the general market
2.  extreme of popular disfavour towards individual stocks
3.  failure of market to respond to improvement in the company
4.  failure to realise hidden value in the company due to some complicated aspects of accounting or corporate relationships

Bargain-issue pattern in Secondary Companies

We have defined a secondary company as one which is not a leader in a fairly important industry.

Thus, it is usually one of the smaller concerns in its field, but it may equally well be the chief unit in an unimportant line.

By way of exception, any company that has established itself as a growth stock is not ordinarily considered as "secondary."

In the 1920's relatively little distinction was drawn between industry leaders and other listed issues, provided the latter were of respectable size.

The public felt that a middle-sized company was strong enough to weather storms and that it had a better chance for really spectacular expansion than one which was already of major dimensions.


The 1931-33 depression

The 1931-33 depression, however, had a particularly devastating impact on companies below the first rank either in size or in inherent stability.

As a result of that experience investors have since developed a pronounced preference for industry leaders and a corresponding lack of interest in the ordinary company of secondary importance.  

This has meant that the latter group has usually sold at much lower prices in relation to earnings and assets than have the former.

It has also meant further that in many instances the price has fallen so low as to establish the issue in the bargain class.

When investors rejected the stocks of secondary companies, even though these sold at relatively low prices, they were expressing a belief or fear that such companies faced a dismal future.

In fact, at least subconsciously, they calculated that any price was too high for them because  they were heading for extinction - just as in 1929 the companion theory for the "blue chips" was that no price was too high for them because their future possibilities were limitless.

Both of these views were exaggerations and were productive of serious investment errors.

Actually, the typical middle-sized listed company is a large one when compared with the average privately-owned business.

There is no sound reason why such companies should not continue indefinitely in operation, undergoing the vicissitudes characteristic of our economy but earnings on the whole a fair return on their invested capital.  

This brief review indicates that the stock market's attitude toward secondary companies tends to be unrealistic and consequently to create in normal times innumerable instances of major undervaluation.



Benjamin Graham
The Intelligent Investor

The case of the market declines and unsuccessful stock investments.

There is a vital difference here between temporary and permanent influences.

A price decline is of no real importance to the bona fide investor unless it is either very substantial - say, more than a third from cost - or unless it reflects a known deterioration of consequence in the company's position.


In a well defined bear market many sound common stocks sell temporarily at extraordinarily low prices.

• It is possible that the investor may then have a paper loss of fully 50 per cent on some of his holdings, without any convincing indication that the underlying values have been permanently affected.

A significant price decline is of importance to the investor.

• He would have been well advised to scrutinize the picture with some care, to see whether he had made any miscalculations.
• But if the results of his study were reassuring - as they should have been - he was entitled then to disregard the market decline as a temporary vagary of finance, unless he had the funds and the courage to take advantage of it by buying more on the bargain basis offered.

Bear markets have three stages - "sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend."

In this market, investors will need the margin of safety that a low price brings. 

The crash was just the end of the beginning. Now comes what could be many months of head-fakes and hopeful rallies that wind up in dead ends. You'll be Charlie Brown charging the football with head held high, only to land flat on your back.

Bear markets have three stages - "sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend." 

Where it stops, nobody knows, but a portfolio with strong defensive stocks stands a fighting chance.


http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/12/five-tips-for-buying-stocks-in-bad.html

Strategy during crisis investment: Revisiting the recent 2008 bear market

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2010

Strategy during crisis investment: Revisiting the recent 2008 bear market

Although we may not know where the bear bottom is, buying in a down market may still lead to losing money. This is definitely true. As long as the purchase is not at market bottom, it may still result in losses for the time being. This is likely to be a short-term loss but compensated by a probable long-term gain. Even if we cannot time the market perfectly, we are definitely better off to “buy low and sell high” then to “buy high and sell low”.

----
 
Prices fell but value intact

Presently stock prices have fallen sharply. 

• Banks are trading at 1x book value, 
• property stocks sold at 50% discount from net asset value, 
• utility stocks trading at single-digit price-earnings ratio providing an earnings yield of more than 10% net of tax and 
• there are many good stocks trading at dividend yield of 2x bank interest rates. 

----

Warren Buffett, the second richest man in the world who makes his fortune from stock investment, is busy buying undervalued companies. He sees the value and he also sees prices detaching away from the intrinsic values.He said: “I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turn up.”

----

Catching a falling knife

Some may argue that buying now is like catching a falling knife. If you are not careful, you may be hurt and suffer more losses from falling stock prices.There is no doubt that we may incur short-term losses as long as we do not buy at the bottom. On the other hand, who can determine where and when is the bottom. As long as there are still unknown events or hidden problems, an apparent bottom now may not be the eventual bottom.Since we do not have all the information in the market, it is almost impossible to guess where the bottom will be.

---- 

In most cases, we only realise the bottom after it is over and by that time stock prices are running high with much improved market confidence. Market bottom could be there only for a short period. In most cases, market did not stay at the bottom waiting for investors. It will just move on.

----

Since market moves ahead of the economy by about six months, the market bottoms out when the economy is still gloomy, news are still negative, analysts are still calling underweights and most investors are staying at the sidelines.

----

Handling something we know is definitely much easier than dealing with the unknown risks, something which hits from behind without warning.When we invest during a crisis we actually go in with our eyes open. We know it is definitely risky but we also know it could also be very profitable. If we can handle the risk, the risk-reward trade-off will be very rewarding.

----

Emphasise strategies

What we need is to buy near the bottom, not right at the bottom. Investors’ frequent question now is when to buy, that is where is the bottom? Perhaps it is more intelligent to ask how much to buy now since nobody will be able to guess where is the market bottom.

---- 

Staggered buying is preferred over bullet purchase which is taking the risk of timing the market bottom. In staggered buying, a pre-determined amount will be set aside for investment over time, say in 10 equal portions. 

One common method of staggered investment is dollar cost averaging, an investment scheme made in equal portions periodically, either by a small amount monthly or larger amount quarterly. There are also several variations of staggered investment.

----

Anyway, staggered purchase is a preferred method to avoid the anxiety of market timing and the mixed feeling of fear of further downside and worry of missing the market rebound. As long as the market is undervalued, the strategy of staggered investment ensures that investors are in and are benefiting from the undervalued market. 


http://klsecounters.blogspot.com/2008/11/strategy-during-crisis-investment.html  

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/02/strategy-during-crisis-investment.html

Benjamin Graham - advantages of a long bear market

"The true investor would be pleased, rather than discouraged, at the prospect of investing his new savings on very satisfactory terms." 

Investors would be "enviably fortunate" to benefit from the "advantages" of a long bear market.

Benjamin Graham's advice to guide investors in a falling market

If You Think Worst Is Over, Take Benjamin Graham's Advice
By JASON ZWEIG

May 26, 2009

It is sometimes said that to be an intelligent investor, you must be unemotional. That isn't true; instead, you should be inversely emotional.

Even after recent turbulence, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up roughly 30% since its low in March. It is natural for you to feel happy or relieved about that. But Benjamin Graham believed, instead, that you should train yourself to feel worried about such events.

At this moment, consulting Mr. Graham's wisdom is especially fitting. Sixty years ago, on May 25, 1949, the founder of financial analysis published his book, "The Intelligent Investor," in whose honor this column is named. And today the market seems to be in just the kind of mood that would have worried Mr. Graham: a jittery optimism, an insecure and almost desperate need to believe that the worst is over.

You can't turn off your feelings, of course. But you can, and should, turn them inside out.

Stocks have suddenly become more expensive to accumulate. Since March, according to data from Robert Shiller of Yale, the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has jumped from 13.1 to 15.5. That's the sharpest, fastest rise in almost a quarter-century. (As Graham suggested, Prof. Shiller uses a 10-year average P/E ratio, adjusted for inflation.)

Over the course of 10 weeks, stocks have moved from the edge of the bargain bin to the full-price rack. So, unless you are retired and living off your investments, you shouldn't be celebrating, you should be worrying.

Mr. Graham worked diligently to resist being swept up in the mood swings of "Mr. Market" -- his metaphor for the collective mind of investors, euphoric when stocks go up and miserable when they go down.

In an autobiographical sketch, Mr. Graham wrote that he "embraced stoicism as a gospel sent to him from heaven." Among the main components of his "internal equipment," he also said, were a "certain aloofness" and "unruffled serenity."

Mr. Graham's last wife described him as "humane, but not human." I asked his son, Benjamin Graham Jr., what that meant. "His mind was elsewhere, and he did have a little difficulty in relating to others," "Buz" Graham said of his father. "He was always internally multitasking. Maybe people who go into investing are especially well-suited for it if they have that distance or detachment."

Mr. Graham's immersion in literature, mathematics and philosophy, he once remarked, helped him view the markets "from the standpoint of eternity, rather than day-to-day."

Perhaps as a result, he almost invariably read the enthusiasm of others as a yellow caution light, and he took their misery as a sign of hope.

His knack for inverting emotions helped him see when markets had run to extremes. In late 1945, as the market was rising 36%, he warned investors to cut back on stocks; the next year, the market fell 8%. As stocks took off in 1958-59, Mr. Graham was again pessimistic; years of jagged returns followed. In late 1971, he counseled caution, just before the worst bear market in decades hit.

In the depths of that crash, near the end of 1974, Mr. Graham gave a speech in which he correctly forecast a period of "many years" in which "stock prices may languish."

Then he startled his listeners by pointing out this was good news, not bad: "The true investor would be pleased, rather than discouraged, at the prospect of investing his new savings on very satisfactory terms." Mr. Graham added a more startling note: Investors would be "enviably fortunate" to benefit from the "advantages" of a long bear market.

Today, it has become trendy to declare that "buy and hold is dead." Some critics regard dollar-cost averaging, or automatically investing a fixed amount every month, as foolish.

Asked if dollar-cost averaging could ensure long-term success, Mr. Graham wrote in 1962: "Such a policy will pay off ultimately, regardless of when it is begun, provided that it is adhered to conscientiously and courageously under all intervening conditions."

For that to be true, however, the dollar-cost averaging investor must "be a different sort of person from the rest of us ... not subject to the alternations of exhilaration and deep gloom that have accompanied the gyrations of the stock market for generations past."

"This," Mr. Graham concluded, "I greatly doubt."

He didn't mean that no one can resist being swept up in the gyrating emotions of the crowd. He meant that few people can. To be an intelligent investor, you must cultivate what Mr. Graham called "firmness of character" -- the ability to keep your own emotional counsel.

Above all, that means resisting the contagion of Mr. Market's enthusiasm when stocks are suddenly no longer cheap.



http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB124302634866648217?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB124302634866648217.html

A true value investor is likely to perform better in a bear market than in a bull market.

Patience is a virtue for value investors

The last part of Buffett’s 1957 letter carries a very important lesson in patience for value investor. Here is what he wrote…

To some extent our better than average performance in 1957 was due to the fact that it was a generally poor year for most stocks. Our performance, relatively, is likely to be better in a bear market than in a bull market so that deductions made from the above results should be tempered by the fact that it was the type of year when we should have done relatively well. In a year when the general market had a substantial advance I would be well satisfied to match the advance of the Averages.

Despite calling ourselves “value investors”, a lot of us lose patience when stock prices are falling and get elated when they are rising.

But as Buffett wrote, a true value investor is likely to perform better in a bear market than in a bull market.

This is simply because when you are value investor, you buy good quality stocks and that too only at reasonable margin of safety (around 30-50%).

So when stock prices fall in a bear market, your good quality stocks bought at reasonable margin of safety may earn you lesser losses than the broader markets.

On the other hand, in a bull market, when even garbage is considered a dessert, and people are lapping up everything that’s rising in price, Mr. Market usually ignores good quality “boring” businesses which you hold in your portfolio…

…and thus you must be happy to earn just as much as the broader markets. That’s when you must not try to ride the bull but instead tell those riding it – “I’ll see you in the next bear market!”

This wouldn’t be arrogance on your part. This would be sensibility, as Buffett has proved over the past six decades.

http://www.safalniveshak.com/wit-wisdom-warren-part1/

Four steps to prepare for a crash

But for the sake of argument, let’s pretend that Time’s cover is wildly bullish and did send a legitimate bear signal to the world. Or maybe tapering will sink stocks.

What would be the proper course of action for investors in a bear market?


1. Understand your time horizon

If you invested 10 years ago for an event this year, you might seriously consider selling your stocks and converting them to cash — but that’s regardless of where you think the market is going. If you need the money in the short term, it doesn’t belong in the market. If you have longer than a few years to invest, don’t worry about a crash as long as you…

2. Make sure your stops are in place

The Oxford Club recommends a 25% trailing stop loss. The stops protect gains as stocks rise and ensure that no single position results in a devastating loss. Since stocks are up so much over the past four years, even if you do get stopped out, you should get out with a profit. This strategy also ensures that you have plenty of cash to get back into the market at lower prices. During the financial crisis, Oxford Club Members were stopped out of positions in 2008 and took profits on many stocks that had risen during the previous bull. That freed up capital to get back in during the lows of 2008 and 2009, resulting in some huge winners, including Discovery Communications (Nasdaq: DISCA), up 255%, and Diageo (NYSE: DEO), up 171%.

3. Review your portfolio

If you haven’t done so in a while, take a look at the stocks in your portfolio. Make sure the companies are still operating at a high level. If you own Perpetual Dividend Raisers — stocks that raise their dividend every year — examine when the company last raised its dividend. If the company is continuing its streak of annual dividend raises, generally speaking, you should be fine for the long term.

4. Be ready to buy when things are bleak

It takes a lot of guts to buy stocks when it feels like the market is falling apart, but that’s how the biggest gains are made. Whether you’ve raised capital by selling stocks whose stops were hit, or you have money set aside, buy stocks after a market slide. You might not catch the bottom, but since stocks go up over the long haul, getting them at a discount will add significantly to your returns. Regardless of the predictability of the magazine cover theory or any other signal, long-term investors should not get caught up in the day-to-day market noise. You will make money as long as you don’t panic in the face of a sell-off.

Marc Lichtenfeld is a senior analyst at Investment U. See more articles by Marc here. - See more at: http://www.hcplive.com/physicians-money-digest/personal-finance/Four-Steps-to-Prepare-for-a-Market-Crash-IU#sthash.jGTxbsF7.dpuf

Warren Buffett's Bear Market Maneuvers

July 12 2009

In times of economic decline, many investors ask themselves, "What strategies does the Oracle of Omaha employ to keep Berkshire Hathaway on target?" The answer is that the esteemed Warren Buffett, the most successful known investor of all time, rarely changes his long-term value investment strategy and regards down markets as an opportunity to buy good companies at reasonable prices. In this article, we will cover the Buffett investment philosophy and stock-selection criteria with specific emphasis on their application in a down market and a slowing economy. (For more on Warren Buffett and his current holdings, sign up for our Coattail Investor newsletter.)

The Buffett Investment Philosophy

Buffett has a set of definitive assumptions about what constitutes a "good investment". These focus on the quality of the business rather than the short-term or near-future share price or market moves. He takes a long-term, large scale, business value-based investment approach that concentrates on good fundamentals and intrinsic business value, rather than the share price. (For further reading, seeWarren Buffett: The Road To Riches and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)

Buffett looks for businesses with "a durable competitive advantage." What he means by this is that the company has a market position, market share, branding or other long-lasting edge over its competitors that either prevents easy access by competitors or controls a scarce raw-material source. (For more insight, see Competitive Advantage Counts, 3 Secrets Of Successful Companiesand Economic Moats Keep Competitors At Bay.)

Buffett employs a selective contrarian investment strategy: using his investment criteria to identify and select good companies, he can then make large investments (millions of shares) when the market and the share price are depressed and when other investors may be selling.

In addition, he assumes the following points to be true:

• The global economy is complex and unpredictable.
• The economy and the stock market do not move in sync.
• The market discount mechanism moves instantly to incorporate news into the share price.
• The returns of long-term equities cannot be matched anywhere else.

Buffett Investment Activity

Berkshire Hathaway investment industries over the years have included:

• Insurance 
• Soft drinks 
• Private jet aircraft
• Chocolates 
• Shoes
• Jewelry 
• Publishing
• Furniture 
• Steel
• Energy 
• Home building

The industries listed above vary widely, so what are the common criteria used to separate the good investments from the bad?

Buffett Investment Criteria

Berkshire Hathaway relies on an extensive research-and-analysis team that goes through reams of data to guide their investment decisions. While all the details of the specific techniques used are not made public, the following 10 requirements are all common among Berkshire Hathaway investments:

1. The candidate company has to be in a good and growing economy or industry.
2. It must enjoy a consumer monopoly or have a loyalty-commanding brand.
3. It cannot be vulnerable to competition from anyone with abundant resources.
4. Its earnings have to be on an upward trend with good and consistent profit margins.
5. The company must enjoy a low debt/equity ratio or a high earnings/debt ratio.
6. It must have high and consistent returns on invested capital.
7. The company must have a history of retaining earnings for growth.
8. It cannot have high maintenance costs of operations, high capital expenditure or investment cash flow.
9. The company must demonstrate a history of reinvesting earnings in good business opportunities, and its management needs a good track record of profiting from these investments.
10. The company must be free to adjust prices for inflation.

The Buffett Investment Strategy

Buffett makes concentrated purchases. In a downturn, he buys millions of shares of solid businesses at reasonable prices. Buffett does not buy tech shares because he doesn't understand their business or industry; during the dotcom boom, he avoided investing in tech companies because he felt they hadn't been around long enough to provide sufficient performance history for his purposes.

And even in a bear market, although Buffett had billions of dollars in cash to make investments, in his 2009 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, he declared that cash held beyond the bottom would be eroded by inflation in the recovery.

Buffett deals only with large companies because he needs to make massive investments to garner the returns required to post excellent results for the huge size to which his company, Berkshire Hathaway, has grown. (To learn about the disadvantage of being confined to blue chip stocks, readWhy Warren Buffett Envies You.)

Buffett's selective contrarian style in a bear market includes making some large investments in blue chip stocks when their stock price is very low. And Buffett might get an even better deal than the average investor: His ability to supply billions of dollars in cash infusion investments earns him special conditions and opportunities not available to others. His investments often are in a class of secured stock with its dividends assured and future stock warrants available at below-market prices.

Conclusion

Buffett's strategy for coping with a down market is to approach it as an opportunity to buy good companies at reasonable prices. Buffett has developed an investment model that has worked for him and the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders over a long period of time. His investment strategy is long term and selective, incorporating a stringent set of requirements prior to an investment decision being made. Buffett also benefits from a huge cash "war chest" that can be used to buy millions of shares at a time, providing an ever-ready opportunity to earn huge returns.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/buffett-bear-market-strategies.asp?utm_source=coattail-buffett&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=WBW-6/12/2013-b

Investors need to pick their poison.

Investors need to pick their poison:  Either make more money when times are good and have a really ugly year every so often, or protect on the downside and don't be at the party so long when things are good.

Seth Klarman:  At Baupost, we are all clearly in the same camp.  We have all our own money invested in the firm, and so we are very conservative.  We have picked our poison.  We would rather underperform in a huge bull market than get clobbered in a really bad bear market.


http://www.scribd.com/doc/37358611/Seth-Klarman-CFA-Presentation

Are You Running With the Bull Market or Staying on the Sidelines?

By BetterInvesting,  On November 8, 2012

Professors at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School weigh the pros and cons of leaping into the stock market rally in a recent article in Knowledge@Wharton: “In or Out? The Case for — and Against — the Stock Market.”

For equity investors, Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel says pulling out of the stock market is a mistake.

“‘The public unfortunately lags (behind) what’s going on in the market,’ says Siegel, noting that rank-and-file investors tend to be bullish at the top of the market and bearish when the market is about to recover. ‘It is not unusual for the public to miss the first half to two-thirds of a bull market. Then they get in at the end, and they ride it down.’

“To sophisticated market watchers, the fact that most retail investors are staying out of the market right now is actually a positive indicator, since history shows that public flows in and out of the market are usually badly timed, Siegel says. ‘I still think this bull market definitely has room to run,’ he notes. ‘I can easily see stocks up another 20% to 30% from these levels in a year or two.’”

Not all of his colleagues agree with Siegel, the article notes.

“Wharton finance professor Richard J. Herring says the market outlook remains uncertain. ‘It is hard to imagine earnings continuing to grow since they are already at an historical high relative to GDP, and the economic outlook is tepid at best,’ he notes. ‘Many experts believe this is a market pumped up by QE3 and little else.’”

http://blog.betterinvesting.org/investing/are-you-running-with-the-bull-market-or-staying-on-the-sidelines/

Investment lifecycle in the Stock Market

Before choosing investments, think about the amount of time you can leave your money in the market.

Shares offer the greatest chance for growth in the long term, but if you only have a few months to invest, their volatility could leave you with losses. That is why you should always estimate when you might need your money again and invest accordingly.

Always remember that the value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you initially invested even in the long term.

If you are unsure about investing you should seek independent advice.

Short-term approaches

If you only have a few years – or a few months – before you will need to pull your money out from the markets, you may want to look for low-risk, low-volatility investments.

A good short-term portfolio may include high exposure to bonds and gilts, as well as cash or cash-like investments. Some investors may also want to include some holdings in lower-risk shares from well-established companies.

Looking at the medium term

With 5 or more years, you can start looking at a more traditional portfolio, with a diverse mix of shares balanced with some holdings in bonds and cash. This is because in a typical economic cycle, 5 years is enough to recover from any significant downturns. Although this is not guaranteed.

Long-term investing

Younger investors saving up for retirement may find that that have 10 to 20 years or more before they will need to start drawing down money from their investments.

With the luxury of time, you may want to consider riskier and more volatile investments. While there are no guarantees, by taking on greater risk, you may earn a higher return. A downturn can hurt your portfolio, but you would be able to afford the wait for the eventual recovery. Then, as you approach retirement, you can slowly transition to safer investments in order to protect your gains.

Standard bull markets typically have a shelf life of less than four years

This Bull Market Is Hard to Pin Down
By PAUL J. LIM
Published: March 24, 2012

HISTORY says that standard bull markets typically have a shelf life of less than four years. So when the bull that sprang to life in March 2009 turned 3 this month, it understandably raised some concerns.

Enlarge This Image

Chris Goodney/Bloomberg News

Depending on how you mark the calendar, Wall Street’s recent surge could be just a late charge in a bull market ready to run its course. Or it could be the start of something bigger for stock investors.

Yet some strategists on Wall Street mark the calendar differently. They contend that the bull market that began in 2009 actually ended last year, when the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index hit a rough patch from late April to early October.

During that stretch, the S.& P. 500 lost 19.4 percent from peak to trough based on daily closing prices — just shy of the 20 percent threshold for a bear market. On Oct. 3, though, the index actually fell through that barrier for a brief moment during the trading day.

If that was indeed a bear, the thinking goes, then a new bull market must have been born on Oct. 3. And that would imply not only that stocks have more room to run, but also that sectors like technology, which are sensitive to shifts in the economic cycle, are likely to do well. Despite a slight downturn last week, they have been buoyant for months.

“From an official standpoint, in terms of what Standard & Poor’s will count this as, the bull market is entering its fourth year because the market didn’t officially decline by 20 percent based on closing values,” says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist for S.& P. Capital IQ. “However, if someone asks, ‘What do you think will happen in terms of performance?’ I think the market will act as if we’re in the first year of a new bull.”

At the moment, it is. Historically, the first years of major rallies provide investors with the biggest boost, with the S.& P. 500 having posted gains of 38 percent, on average, in Year 1 of past bull markets since World War II. True to form, the rally that began on Oct. 3 has already pushed the index 27 percent higher in less than six months.

That surge isn’t the only evidence supporting the view that Wall Street is in a new bull market. Normally, shares of small companies — considered higher-risk but higher-returning assets than blue-chip stocks — tend to outperform the broad market at the start of a new rally. Shares of large, industry-leading companies, by contrast, usually catch fire only after bull markets mature.

Sure enough, small-company stocks have been performing even better than the S.& P. 500 over the last six months. For instance, the Nasdaq composite index, made up of younger and faster-growing companies than are found in the S.& P. 500, is already up more than 31 percent since Oct. 3, while the Russell 2000 index of small stocks has gained 36 percent.

At the same time, economically sensitive sectors like technology and consumer discretionary stocks have been outpacing the broad market since October, which is also typical of the first years of bull markets, Mr. Stovall notes.

He added that if this were the fourth year of an aging bull, defensive areas of the market — like health care, consumer staples and utilities stocks — would be leading the charge. Yet they haven’t been.

Jason Hsu, chief investment officer for the investment consulting firm Research Affiliates, says that even if investors are not convinced that this is the start of a new bull, market psychology is likely to keep pushing the markets higher for now.

“Research on short-term momentum in asset prices says that if you had a strong six months of steady asset appreciation, that tends to drive further price appreciation,” he said.

He added that many investors “did not participate in the fairly speculative, risk-asset rally that began in October.” So, given the occasional herd mentality on Wall Street, these investors could simply be waiting for an opening to jump in. As a result, Mr. Hsu says he thinks that the broad market could keep rallying in the short run, and that there could be continuing demand for riskier, economically sensitive stocks, especially on market dips, he said.

TO be sure, there are different types of bull markets — so-called cyclical bulls that tend to run alongside a single economic expansion, as well as so-called secular bull markets that may last for more than a decade, often containing shorter bull and bear cycles within them. The stock market’s epic run from 1982 to 1999, for instance, was the last big example of a secular bull.

“I don’t think we’ve begun a new secular bull,” says Mark D. Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. He points out that historically, secular bulls tend to start at price-to-earnings ratios in the single digits, as was the case in 1982. But based on valuations using 10-year average profits, the market’s P/E ratio is above 20.

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at the Leuthold Group, also says that while this may be a new bull market, it is what he calls a “noneconomic” rally.

In other words, this bull market — unlike the one that began in March 2009 — emerged after a bear market that did not coincide with an official recession.

What’s the significance of that? “Recessions are what clear the decks for a longer-lasting recovery and drive valuations down to truly low levels from which bigger gains can spring,” he said.

Mr. Ramsey’s research on noneconomic bull markets since World War II found that these rallies tend to be shorter-lived — the average one lasted just 31 months. And they tend to be more muted. While the typical noneconomic bull market returned less than 62 percent, cumulatively, the median bull market that emerged after recessions gained nearly 102 percent.

Of course, given that stocks have gained 27 percent so far in their current rally, that would still leave the market some ample room for gains.

Paul J. Lim is a senior editor at Money magazine.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/your-money/bull-market-may-have-much-further-to-go.html?ref=your-money

3 Stages of a Bull Market and 3 Stages of a Bear Market

2011 Value Investing Congress Notes
http://www.scribd.com/doc/54958483/2011-Value-Investing-Congress-Notes

The swing of the pendulum 
o Constantly going between greed and fear, risk tolerance and risk aversion, and optimism and pessimism
o In theory, the pendulum should be at the happy medium

 On average it is in the middle 
 But it spends little time there
 Excesses constitute the errors of herd behavior

 3 stages of a bull market 
 Few people feel things are getting better
 Most people realize improvement is taking place
 Everyone thinks things will get better forever
 "What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end."
o The last buyer pays the price 

 3 stages of a bear market 
 Few people realize that things are overpriced and dangerous
 Most people see the decline is underway
 Everyone believes that things will get worse forever
o Great opportunity to buy if we can behave counter-cyclically - Importance of being a contrarian.



Ben Claremon: The Inoculated Investor http://inoculatedinvestor.blogspot.com/  

The Investor and Market Fluctuations: The Single Most Important Paragraph in Graham's entire book for the Bear Markets (5)

Let us return to our comparison between the holder of marketable shares and the man with an interest in a private business.  We have said that the former has the option of considering himself merely

• as the part owner of the various businesses he has invested in, or 
• as the holder of shares which are salable at any time he wishes at their quoted market price.

But note this important fact:
The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more.* Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons’ mistakes of judgment.†



* “Only to the extent that it suits his book” means “only to the extent that the price is favorable enough to justify selling the stock.” In traditional brokerage lingo, the “book” is an investor’s ledger of holdings and trades.

† This may well be the single most important paragraph in Graham’s entire book. In these 113 words Graham sums up his lifetime of experience. You cannot read these words too often; they are like Kryptonite for bear markets.  If you keep them close at hand and let them guide you throughout your investing life, you will survive whatever the markets throw at you.






Incidentally, a widespread situation of this kind actually existed during the dark depression days of 1931–1933.  There was then a psychological advantage in owning business interests that had no quoted market. 

• For example, people who owned first mortgages on real estate that continued to pay interest were able to tell themselves that their investments had kept their full value, there being no market quotations to indicate otherwise. 
• On the other hand, many listed corporation bonds of even better quality and greater underlying strength suffered severe shrinkages in their market quotations, thus making their owners believe they were growing distinctly poorer. 

In reality the owners were better off with the listed securities, despite the low prices of these.

• For if they had wanted to, or were compelled to, they could at least have sold the issues—possibly to exchange them for even better bargains. 
• Or they could just as logically have ignored the market’s action as temporary and basically meaningless. 

But it is self-deception to tell yourself that you have suffered no shrinkage in value  merely because your securities have no quoted market at all.

Returning to our A. & P. shareholder in 1938, we assert that as long as he held on to his shares he suffered no loss in their price decline, beyond what his own judgment may have told him was occasioned by a shrinkage in their underlying or intrinsic value. 

• If no such shrinkage had occurred, he had a right to expect that in due course the market quotation would return to the 1937 level or better—as in fact it did the following year. 
• In this respect his position was at least as good as if he had owned an interest in a private business with no quoted market for its shares. 
• For in that case, too, he might or might not have been justified in mentally lopping off part of the cost of his holdings because of the impact of the 1938 recession—depending on what had happened to his company.

Ref:  Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

How to interpret Market Behaviour?

HOW TO INTERPRET MARKET BEHAVIOR

Whether you are an existing investor who holds a portfolio of shares or a beginner trying to enter the market, it is important for you to understand how the market behaves and where it is heading. The overall market health has a direct impact on a company’s profitability and almost all shares are impacted by the market sentiment, to a certain extent. Therefore, in order to be successful in stock investing, you must at least know how to recognise the major market trends.

What is a bull market?
A bull market refers to a stock market that is on the rise. It is considered as a bull market when almost all stocks are appreciating in value for a considerable period of time, usually with a price gain of over 20%. You will know that it is a bull market when everyone seems to be talking about buying shares and nobody seems to want to sell. This is when you observe that the demand for the shares is very strong resulting in limited supply, which in turn, pushes the shares prices even higher as investors are competing for the shares. During a bull market, investors are confident that the uptrend will continue into a longer term and the overall economy outlook is favourable while the employment rate is high. This is the time when everyone is exhilarated about the stock market as their chances of losing money in such market is quite low.

What is a bear market then?
A bear market is the total opposite of a bull market. It is characterised by a market that is downward trending with the stock value being depreciated by more than 20%. During a bear market, the demand for stocks is low while supply is high because everybody is trying to sell and only a few want to buy as the price continues to dip further. In such a market, the chances of losing money are high and therefore, you will see that the market sentiment is very pessimistic. A bear market is usually associated with weak economic outlook and the likelihood of declining company performance.

A typical bull market usually starts at the bottom, when the economy seems to be weak, such as during a recession. Here, you can observe governments trying to take certain measures like lowering interest rates to boost their economic recovery. When the market liquidity eases and company borrowing cost is lower, company profitability will improve and this in turn will indicate a positive sign for a bullish market to start.

On the other hand, when the market seems to be very hot with widespread bullishness, especially when the economic growth rate is high, coupled with high inflation rate, usually these signs signify a market top. This would indicate that there is a potential end of a bull market and the beginning of a bear market. During this period, investors should pay more attention to bad corporate news and warning signs to prepare for the turn in cycle.

How do these markets affect investors? 
Investor would ideally buy when the bull market is just about to start. This is when the stocks are still cheap and riding the bull wave until it reaches the top, before being sold as to maximise profit. Unfortunately, no one can be certain as to when the market is going to reach the top or the bottom. Therefore, by understanding how the market behaves, investors would have an idea on where the market is heading so that they can prepare themselves to take the necessary action. For example, an investor may not catch the stocks at the very bottom of the market, but at least he or she would know that the market is on its way to recovery and as such would start to pick up stocks with sound fundamentals but are still undervalue to invest in. Then, they would wait for the price to come up. Relatively, investing in a bull market is easier as the chances of making losses are low compared to investing in a bear market.

There are a few strategies that investors may take when dealing with a bear market. 

-  The most conservative way adopted would be to move out from stocks and invest in fixed income securities until the market recovers. 

-  Some would turn to the defensive stocks, such as those in the industries that are less affected by economic downturn, for example, food or utilities industries. 

-     The third option that is viable for investors is buying as the market continues to drop further to capitalize on the price reduction. However, investors who adopt this option face the risk of having their cash drying up all before the market reaches the bottom.

What is most important for investors to take note of when making investing decisions is the need  for homework; they need to do their homework properly, be it on the company itself or the overall economic situation. This is to ensure that their investment risk is minimised.

http://www.min.com.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=79