Showing posts with label equity bond. Show all posts
Showing posts with label equity bond. Show all posts

Wednesday 4 March 2015

The Most Successful Dividend Investors of all time


The Most Successful Dividend Investors of all time


Dividend investing is as sexy as watching paint dry on the wall. Defining an entry criteria that selects quality dividend stocks with rising dividends over time and then patiently reinvesting these dividends while sitting on your hands is not exciting. While active traders have a plethora of hedge fund managers on the covers of Forbes magazine there are not many well-publicized successful dividend investors. Even value investing has its own superstars – Ben Graham and Warren Buffett.

I did some research and uncovered several successful dividend investors, whose stories provide reassurance that the traits of successful dividend investing I outlined in a previous post are indeed accurate.

The first investor is Anne Scheiber, who turned a $5,000 investment in 1944 into $22 million by the time of her death at the age of 101 in 1995. Anne Scheiber worked as an IRS auditor for 23 years, never earning more than $3150/year. The one important lesson she learned auditing tax returns was that the surest way to become rich in America is by accumulating stocks. She accumulated stocks in brand name companies she understood andthen reinvested dividends for decades. She never sold, in order to avoid paying taxes and commissions. She also never sold even during the 1972-1974 bear market as well as the 1987 market crash because she had high conviction in her stocks picks. She also held a diversified portfolio of almost 100 individual securities in brand names such as Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Schering Plough (acquired by Pfizer in 2009). She read annual reports with the same inquisitive mind she audited tax returns during her tenure at the IRS and also attended annual shareholders meetings. Anne Scheiber did her own research on stocks, and was focusing her attention on strong franchises which have the opportunity to increase earnings and pay higher dividends over time.

In her later years she reinvested her dividends into tax free municipal bonds, which is why her portfolio had a 30% allocation to fixed income at the time of her death. At the time of her death, her portfolio was throwing off $750,000 in dividend and interest income annually. She donated her whole fortune to Yeshiva University, even though she never attended it herself.

The second investor is Grace Groner, who turned a small $180 investment in 1935 into $7 million by the time of her death in 2010. Ms Groner, who worked as a secretary at Abbott Laboratories for 43 years invested $180 in 3 shares of Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in 1935. She then simply reinvested the dividends for the next 75 years. She never sold, but just held on to her shares.


She was frugal, having grown up in the depression era, and was the classical millionaire next door type of person who was not interested in keeping up with the Joneses. Grace Groner left her entire fortune to her Alma Mater. Her $7 million donation is generating approximately $250,000 in annual dividend income. 


The reason why dividend investors are not highly publicized is because dividend investing is not sexy enough to be featured in the financial mainstream media. In addition to that, it is not profitable for Wall Street to sell you into the idea that ordinary investors can invest on their own. Compare this to mutual funds, annuities and other products which generate billions in commissions for Wall Street, despite the fact that they might not be in the best interest of small investors.

The third dividend investor is Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha himself. In a previous article I have outlined the reasoning behind my belief that Buffett is a closet dividend investor. He explicitly noted in his 2009 letter that "the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow". His investment in See's Candy is the best example of that.

Some of Buffett's best companies/stock that he has owned such as Geico, Coca Cola , See's Candy are exactly the types of investments mentioned above. He has mentioned that at Berkshire he tries to stick with businesses whose profit picture for decades to come seems reasonably predictable. Per Buffett the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow. In addition, his 2011 letter discussed his dividend income from all of Berkshire Hathaway investments, including his prediction that Coca Cola dividends will keep on increasing, based on the pattern of historical dividend increases.

In this article I outlined three dividend investors, who managed to turn small investments into cash machines that generated large amounts of dividends. They were able to accomplish this through identifying quality dividend growth companies at attractive valuations, patiently reinvesting distributions and in two out of three cases maintaining a diversified portfolio of stocks. These are the lessons that all investors could profit from.






http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2012/06/most-successful-dividend-investors-of.html

Sunday 12 January 2014

My equity bond (Nestle)

Nestle Malaysia

Latest after-tax ttm-EPS is $2.39 per share

Nestle's underlying earnings are so consistent.

And Nestle is growing its earnings at about 8% per year.

A company with a durable competitive advantage, over time, the stock market will price the company's equity bonds or shares at a level that reflects the value of its earnings relative to the yield on long-term risk free interest rate.

Capitalized at the risk free interest rate of 3.5%, Nestle's after-tax earning of $2.39 per share is worth approximately $68.30 per equity bond/share.  ($2.39/3.5% = $68.30).


Here is a difference worth noting. 

Nestle is worth $68.30 per share  and it is trading today at around $68.00.  Therefore, for the Graham-based value investors, who wants to buy only at $40 per share, Nestle is not "undervalued"

But for those who are willing to apply their reasoning or thinking cap, just take a look at this scenario.

1.  You are being offered a relatively risk-free initial after-tax rate of return of 3.5% today when you buy at $68.30 sen per share.

2.  This after-tax rate of return is expected to increase over the next 20 years at an annual rate of approximately 8% per year.

3.  Then ask this question:  Is this an attractive investment given the rate of risk and return on other investments?

4.  What other attractive investment give the rate of risk and return of this nature?




I bought a long time ago at $10.20 per share

Thus, Nestle is my equity bond or share that is currently giving an after-tax yield of 23.4% ($2.39 / $10.20 = 23.4%) that is relatively risk-free and which is expected to increase over the next 20 years at an annual rate of approximately 8%. 



Tuesday 17 December 2013

Buffett investment thought process

Answering the following questions will guide you through the Buffett investment thought process.

QUALITY AND MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS

1.  Does the company have an identifiable durable competitive advantage?

2.  Do you understand how the product works?

3.  If the company in question does have a durable competitive advantage and you understand how it works, then what is the chance that it will become obsolete in the next twenty years?

4.  Does the company allocate capital exclusively in the realm of its expertise?

5.  What is the company's per share earnings history and growth rate?

6.  Is the company consistently earning a high return on equity?

7.  Does the company earn a high return on total capital?

8.  Is the company conservatively financed?

9.  Is the company actively buying back its shares?

10.  Is the company free to raise prices with inflation?

11.  Are large capital expenditures required to update plant and equipment?

PRICE ANALYSIS

12.  Is the company's stock price suffering from a market panic, a business recession, or an individual calamity that is curable?

13.  What is the initial rate of return on the investment and how does it compare to the return on risk free Treasury Bonds?

14.  What is the company's projected annual compounding return as an equity/bond?

15.  What is the projected annual compounding return using the historical annual per share earnings growth?


Friday 5 April 2013

BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY (Video)

BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(A) THE THEORY.

Warren Buffett has determined that companies which show great Strength and Predictability in Earnings Growth, especially those with Durable Competitive Advantage (DCA), can be seen as a kind of EQUITY BOND with a COUPON.


The company’s SHARE PRICE equates with the EQUITY BOND, and their PRETAX EARNINGS/SHARE equates with a Bond’s COUPON or INTEREST PAYMENT.

Therefore ....



EQUITY BOND = SHARE PRICE
BOND COUPON = PRETAX EARNINGS/SHARE

Durable Competitive Advantage
Throughout this presentation:
Durable Competitive Advantage is abbreviated to DCA

BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(A) THE THEORY.

The DIFFERENCE between a normal Bond’s Coupon Rate and an EQUITY BOND’s Coupon Rate is that the former’s rate remains static while the latter’s rate can increase yearly due to the inherent Positive Performance of a DCA company.



BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(A) THE THEORY.

This is how Buffett buys an Entire Business or a Partial Interest in a company via the Stock Market.


He interrogates its PRETAX EARNINGS and then determines if the purchase is a Good Deal relative to the ECONOMIC STRENGTH of the company’s underlying Economics and its ASKING PRICE.



The strong underlying Economics of DCA companies ensures a CONTINUING INCREASE in the company’s PRETAX EARNINGS which gives an Ongoing Increase in the EQUITY BOND’s COUPON RATE.

This results in the INCREASE in the VALUE of the EQUITY BOND and hence its SHARE PRICE.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(A) THE THEORY.

Here’s how Buffett’s Theory works ....


In the 1980’s Buffett bought Coca Cola shares for $6.50c against PRETAX EARNINGS of $0.70c/share.

Buffett saw this as buying an EQUITY BOND paying an INTEREST RATE of 10.7% (0.70/6.50) on his $6.50 investment.
Historically, Coca Cola’s Earnings had been increasing at an annual rate of about 15%.
Therefore he could argue that his 10.7% Yield would increase at a projected Annual Rate of 15%.



By 2007 Coca Cola’s PRETAX EARNINGS had grown at about 9.35%/annum to $3.96c/share.

Buffett now had an EQUITY BOND with a Pretax Yield of 61% (3.96/6.50) which could really only increase with time due to Coca Cola’s DCA “status”.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(B) DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

From his own experience Buffett has determined that the Stock Market will price a DCA company’s EQUITY BOND at a level that approximately reflects the VALUE OF ITS EARNINGS RELATIVE TO THE YIELD ON LONG TERM CORPORATE BONDS.


This can be written as the following equation ....



EQUITY BOND = SHARE PRICE = COUPON RATE/LONG TERM CORPORATE BOND RATE (L.T.C.B.R.)



and .... COUPON RATE/(L.T.C.B.R.) = PRETAX EARNINGS/( L.T.C.B.R.)


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(B) DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

Examples :-


(1) In 2007 The Washington Post had Pretax Earnings of $54/share = Coupon Rate.

The L.T.C.B.R. was about 6.5%.



EQUITY BOND = Coupon Rate/L.T.C.B.R. = $54/6.5% = $830/share.



In 2007 The Washington Post shares traded between $726 and $885 a share.



(2) In 2007 Coca Cola had Pretax Earnings of $3.96/share = Coupon Rate.

The L.T.C.B.R. was about 6.5%.



EQUITY BOND = Coupon Rate/L.T.C.B.R. = $3.96/6.5% = $61/share.



In 2007 Coca Cola shares traded between $45 and $64 a share.



(The following web site will give you values for Corporate Bond rates :-



BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(B) DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

The stock market, seeing this ongoing return, will eventually revalue these EQUITY BONDS to reflect this increase in Value.


Because the Earnings of these companies are so consistent, they are also open to a LEVERAGED BUYOUT.



If a company carries little debt and has ongoing strong earnings, and its stock price falls low enough, another company will come in and buy it, financing the purchase with the acquired company’s earnings.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(B) DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

ThereforeWHEN INTEREST RATES FALL, the company’s EARNINGS ARE WORTH MORE because they will SUPPORT MORE DEBT, which makes the company’s shares worth more.


Conversely, WHEN INTEREST RATES RISE, EARNINGS ARE WORTH LESS because they will SUPPORT LESS DEBT, making the company’s shares worth less.



In the end it is LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES that determines the Economic Reality of what Long-Term investments are worth.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(C) WHEN TO BUY. 

In Buffett’s world the PRICE you pay directly affects the RETURN on your INVESTMENT.


Therefore the MORE one pays for an EQUITY BOND the LOWER will be the INITIAL Rate of Return and also the LOWER the RATE OF RETURN on the company’s EARNINGS in, say, 10 years time.




BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(C) WHEN TO BUY. 

Example :-


In the late 1980’s Buffett bought Coca Cola for about $6.50c/share.

The company was earning about $0.46c/share after tax.
Initial Rate of Return = 0.46/6.50 = 7%.



By 2007 Coca Cola was earning $2.57c/share, after tax.

Rate of Return = 2.57/6.50 = 40%.



If he had originally paid, say, $21/share back in the 1980’s his Initial Rate of Return would only have been 2.2%, and this would have only grown to about 12% ($2.57/$21) 20 years later in 2007, which is a lot less than 40%!



Therefore the LOWER THE PRICE one pays for a DCA company the BETTER one will do OVER THE LONGER TERM.



SO WHEN DO YOU BUY INTO DCA TYPE COMPANIES ?


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(C) WHEN TO BUY. 

SO WHEN DO YOU BUY INTO DCA TYPE COMPANIES ?


One of the best times to buy into these companies is during BEAR MARKETS when the price of shares are generally depressed, in some cases due to no fault of a DCA type company but due to adverse Market conditions.



This is in line with Buffett’s creed that one should “Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful”.





BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(C) WHEN TO BUY. 

SO WHEN DO YOU BUY INTO DCA TYPE COMPANIES ?


In addition, one can also buy into a DCA type company when its price is at a discount to the price obtained from the formula in (B) above ....

EQUITY BOND = SHARE PRICE = COUPON RATE/LONG TERM CORPORATE BOND RATE (L.T.C.B.R.)


and .... COUPON RATE/(L.T.C.B.R.) = PRETAX EARNINGS/( L.T.C.B.R.)




Once again, referring to Coca Cola, we see that ...



Pretax Earnings per Shares in the late 1980’s = $0.70c.

At that time the L.T.C.B.R. was about 7%.
That would give a “Market Valuation” = $0.70/7% = $10 per share.
Buffett bought it at $6.50c/share, a “discount” of 35%.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(D) WHEN TO SELL, OR NOT TO BUY.  

There are at least THREE occasions ...


(1) One can SELL when one needs the money to invest in an even BETTER company at a BETTER PRICE.



(2) One can SELL when, what was a DCA type company, is now losing its Durable Competitive Advantage.

Examples could be Newspapers and Television Stations which were great businesses until the advent of the Internet and the Durability of their Competitive Advantage could be called into question.


(3) One can SELL, or NOT BUY, during BULL MARKETS when the stock market often sends share prices through the ceiling. At these times the current selling price of a DCA’s stock often far EXCEEDS the long-term ECONOMIC REALITIES of the business.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(D) WHEN TO SELL, OR NOT TO BUY.  

Eventually, these Economic Realities will pull the share price back down to earth.


In fact, it may be time to SELL when one sees P/E ratios of 40, or more, in these great companies.



To once again quote Buffett ... at these times, “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy”.

Reference




Thursday 12 July 2012

Equity Bond

To Warren Buffet's way of thinking, companies with durable competitive advantage have such consistent earnings that their stocks become a sort of bond.  He calls the stock an equity/bond, and it pays an interest rate equal to the yearly return on equity that the business is earning.  The earnings-per-share figure is the equity/bond's yield.  If the company has a shareholders' equity value (book value) of $10 a share and net earnings of $2.50 a share, Warren would say that the company is getting a return on its equity/bond of 25% ( $2.50 / $10 = 25%).

But since a business's earnings fluctuate, the return on the equity/bond is not a fixed figure as it is with other bonds.  Warren belives that with an equity/bond, one is buying a variable rate of return, which can be positive for the investor if earnings increase, or negative if earnings decrease.  The return on the equity/bond will fluctuate as the relationship of equity (book value) to net earnings changes.

http://books.google.com.my/books?id=COhQRkmYD_sC&pg=PA215&lpg=PA215&dq=equity+bond+of+buffett&source=bl&ots=_eVqbLzNyw&sig=uRfYVkjehVk5rrjw1v0l-vvo-hs&hl=en&sa=X&ei=55_uT5erGo_zrQfi4vm9DQ&ved=0CFMQ6AEwAjiCAQ#v=onepage&q=equity%20bond%20of%20buffett&f=false

BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(A) THE THEORY.

Warren Buffett has determined that companies which show great Strength and Predictability in Earnings Growth, especially those with Durable Competitive Advantage (DCA), can be seen as a kind of EQUITY BOND with a COUPON.

The company’s SHARE PRICE equates with the EQUITY BOND, and their PRETAX EARNINGS/SHARE equates with a Bond’s COUPON or INTEREST PAYMENT.
Therefore ....

EQUITY BOND = SHARE PRICE
BOND COUPON = PRETAX EARNINGS/SHARE


The DIFFERENCE between a normal Bond’s Coupon Rate and an EQUITY BOND’s Coupon Rate is that the former’s rate remains static while the latter’s rate can increase yearly due to the inherent Positive Performance of a DCA company.

This is how Buffett buys an Entire Business or a Partial Interest in a company via the Stock Market.

He interrogates its PRETAX EARNINGS and then determines if the purchase is a Good Deal relative to the ECONOMIC STRENGTH of the company’s underlying Economics and its ASKING PRICE.

The strong underlying Economics of DCA companies ensures a CONTINUING INCREASE in the company’s PRETAX EARNINGS which gives an Ongoing Increase in the EQUITY BOND’s COUPON RATE.
This results in the INCREASE in the VALUE of the EQUITY BOND and hence its SHARE PRICE.

Here’s how Buffett’s Theory works ....

In the 1980’s Buffett bought Coca Cola shares for $6.50c against PRETAX EARNINGS of $0.70c/share.
Buffett saw this as buying an EQUITY BOND paying an INTEREST RATE of 10.7% (0.70/6.50) on his $6.50 investment.
Historically, Coca Cola’s Earnings had been increasing at an annual rate of about 15%.
Therefore he could argue that his 10.7% Yield would increase at a projected Annual Rate of 15%.

By 2007 Coca Cola’s PRETAX EARNINGS had grown at about 9.35%/annum to $3.96c/share.
Buffett now had an EQUITY BOND with a Pretax Yield of 61% (3.96/6.50) which could really only increase with time due to Coca Cola’s DCA “status”.

(B) DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

From his own experience Buffett has determined that the Stock Market will price a DCA company’s EQUITY BOND at a level that approximately reflects the VALUE OF ITS EARNINGS RELATIVE TO THE YIELD ON LONG TERM CORPORATE BONDS.

This can be written as the following equation ....

EQUITY BOND = SHARE PRICE = COUPON RATE/LONG TERM CORPORATE BOND RATE (L.T.C.B.R.)

and .... COUPON RATE/(L.T.C.B.R.) = PRETAX EARNINGS/( L.T.C.B.R.)

Examples :-

(1) In 2007 The Washington Post had Pretax Earnings of $54/share = Coupon Rate.
The L.T.C.B.R. was about 6.5%.

EQUITY BOND = Coupon Rate/L.T.C.B.R. = $54/6.5% = $830/share.

In 2007 The Washington Post shares traded between $726 and $885 a share.

(2) In 2007 Coca Cola had Pretax Earnings of $3.96/share = Coupon Rate.
The L.T.C.B.R. was about 6.5%.

EQUITY BOND = Coupon Rate/L.T.C.B.R. = $3.96/6.5% = $61/share.

In 2007 Coca Cola shares traded between $45 and $64 a share.

(The following web site will give you values for Corporate Bond rates :-
http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/composite_bond_rates )

The stock market, seeing this ongoing return, will eventually revalue these EQUITY BONDS to reflect this increase in Value.

Because the Earnings of these companies are so consistent, they are also open to a LEVERAGED BUYOUT.

If a company carries little debt and has ongoing strong earnings, and its stock price falls low enough, another company will come in and buy it, financing the purchase with the acquired company’s earnings.

Therefore, WHEN INTEREST RATES FALL, the company’s EARNINGS ARE WORTH MORE because they will SUPPORT MORE DEBT, which makes the company’s shares worth more.

Conversely, WHEN INTEREST RATES RISE, EARNINGS ARE WORTH LESS because they will SUPPORT LESS DEBT, making the company’s shares worth less.

In the end it is LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES that determines the Economic Reality of what Long-Term investments are worth.

(C) WHEN TO BUY. 

In Buffett’s world the PRICE you pay directly affects the RETURN on your INVESTMENT.

Therefore the MORE one pays for an EQUITY BOND the LOWER will be the INITIAL Rate of Return and also the LOWER the RATE OF RETURN on the company’s EARNINGS in, say, 10 years time.

Example :-

In the late 1980’s Buffett bought Coca Cola for about $6.50c/share.
The company was earning about $0.46c/share after tax.
Initial Rate of Return = 0.46/6.50 = 7%.

By 2007 Coca Cola was earning $2.57c/share, after tax.
Rate of Return = 2.57/6.50 = 40%.

If he had originally paid, say, $21/share back in the 1980’s his Initial Rate of Return would only have been 2.2%, and this would have only grown to about 12% ($2.57/$21) 20 years later in 2007, which is a lot less than 40% !

Therefore the LOWER THE PRICE one pays for a DCA company the BETTER one will do OVER THE LONGER TERM.

SO WHEN DO YOU BUY INTO DCA TYPE COMPANIES ?

One of the best times to buy into these companies is during BEAR MARKETS when the price of shares are generally depressed, in some cases due to no fault of a DCA type company but due to adverse Market conditions.

This is in line with Buffett’s creed that one should “Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful”.

In addition, one can also buy into a DCA type company when its price is at a discount to the price obtained from the formula in (B) above ....

Once again, referring to Coca Cola, we see that ...

Pretax Earnings per Shares in the late 1980’s = $0.70c.
At that time the L.T.C.B.R. was about 7%.
That would give a “Market Valuation” = $0.70/7% = $10 per share.
Buffett bought it at $6.50c/share, a “discount” of 35%.

(D) WHEN TO SELL, OR NOT TO BUY. 

There are at least THREE occasions ...

(1) One can SELL when one needs the money to invest in an even BETTER company at a BETTER PRICE.

(2) One can SELL when, what was a DCA type company, is now losing its Durable Competitive Advantage.
Examples could be Newspapers and Television Stations which were great businesses until the advent of the Internet and the Durability of their Competitive Advantage could be called into question.

(3) One can SELL, or NOT BUY, during BULL MARKETS when the stock market often sends share prices through the ceiling. At these times the current selling price of a DCA’s stock often far EXCEEDS the long-term ECONOMIC REALITIES of the business.

Eventually, these Economic Realities will pull the share price back down to earth.

In fact, it may be time to SELL when one sees P/E ratios of 40, or more, in these great companies.

To once again quote Buffett ... at these times, “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy”.


http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsgs.aspx?subjectid=56822&msgnum=1131&batchsize=10&batchtype=Previous

Saturday 30 June 2012

Stock investments versus bonds are a ‘no-brainer’, says Warren Buffett


October 6th, 2010 by John Doherty

 Stock investments vs. bonds are a 'no-brainer', says Buffett
Stock investments are superior to investment in bonds, despite the general view that bonds investments are relatively low-risk, according to the world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett.
Speaking at a conference for top US businesswomen organised by Fortune magazine, Buffett said of stocks investments: “It’s quite clear that stocks are cheaper than bonds. I can’t imagine anyone having bonds in their portfolio when they can have equities.”
For the world’s 3rd-richest man, with a personal net worth estimated at $47 billion in March 2010, low-risk investments may no longer be necessary – but even for the ordinary investor prepared to put their money away for a decade or two, the arguments for stocks and shares investments are what Buffett might call a ‘no-brainer’.
By charting the performance of a long-term investment in stocks and shares made in 1945, figures released recently by Scottish Widows shows that returns over a 60-year term were 70 times greater than investing the same sum as cash in a bank or building society account.
A sum of £100 invested in a building society account in 1945 would have been worth just £1,767 by 2006, according to Scottish Widows. Invested in bonds, the sum would have been worth £4,323.
However, the same £100 invested in the UK stock markets, as measured by the Barclays Equity Index and including dividends reinvested, would have grown to £125,243 over the same time period.
While bonds may be attractive for an investment of 5-10 years, as you are told in advance what your minimum return will be, stocks and shares investments are the clear winner in the longer term.
Warren Buffett’s investment activities are carried on through his investment company Berkshire Hathaway, which has been voted the world’s most respected company by the leading US business publication Barron’s Magazine.

Tuesday 8 March 2011

Petronas Dagangan




Capital gain:
1000 shares of Petdag @ $8 per share (Cost $8,000) in 2005 has grown into 
2000 shares of Petdag @ $14 per share (Market value $28,000) in March 2011.

Don't forget to add the GROWING dividends!

3 Aug 20100.15 Dividend
7 Dec 20090.15 Dividend
5 Aug 20090.33 Dividend
10 Dec 20080.12 Dividend
1 Aug 20080.33 Dividend
14 Dec 20070.12 Dividend
12 Dec 20050.05 Dividend
17 Aug 20050.10 Dividend
30 Nov 20040.10 Dividend
5 Aug 20040.20 Dividend
10 Dec 20030.20 Dividend
23 Jul 20030.10 Dividend
22 Jul 20030.10 Dividend
Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.



Tuesday 2 November 2010

BUFFETT’S COMPANY ANALYSIS TEMPLATE.

BUFFETT’S COMPANY ANALYSIS TEMPLATE.

Below is a Summary of what Warren Buffett targets in a company’s three Financial Statements and his use of his Equity Bond Theory in order to evaluate a company and to determine a preferable purchase price.

In my opinion, one could regard all these requirements as a form of COMPANY ANALYSIS TEMPLATE with which an Industrial type company should comply in order to satisfy Buffett’s Investment Criteria, which should, in turn, lead to a profitable long-term investment.

_______________________________________________________________

INCOME STATEMENT.

GROSS PROFIT :- Gross Profit = Cost of Sales/Revenue >40%

SG&A EXPENSES :- SG&A < 30% x Gross Profit 

R&D EXPENSES :- Little or Nil 

DEPRECIATION :- Depreciation < 10% x Gross Profit

INTEREST EXPENSE :- Interest Expense < 15% x Operating Income (i.e. EBIT)

PRETAX INCOME :- VERY IMPORTANT NUMBER, especially for previous 12 months

NET EARNINGS :- Net Earnings > 20% x Total Revenue

EARNINGS PER SHARE :- 10 Year Trend showing Consistency & Upward Trend

_______________________________________________________________

BALANCE SHEET.

ASSETS.

CASH & SHORT TERM INVESTMENTS :- Ongoing increase from Business Operations NOT from One-Time events

INVENTORY :- Corresponding Rise in both Inventory & Net Earnings

CURRENT RATIO :- Current Assets/Current Liabilities < 1, due to Strong Earning Power

PROPERTY, PLANT & EQUIPMENT :- Low as possible

LONG TERM INVESTMENTS :- Large as possible. Should be Quality Investments, preferably in other DCA companies

RETURN ON ASSETS (ROA) :- High BUT with Large Total Assets to reduce Vulnerability

LIABILITIES.

SHORT TERM DEBT :- Avoid bigger borrowers of Short Term money rather than Long term money 

LONG TERM DEBT DUE :- Little or Nil

LONG TERM DEBT :- Long Term Debt < 3 x Annual Net Earnings

DEBT/SHAREHOLDER’S EQUITY :- Debt/S.H.Equity < 0.8 where S.H.Equity INCLUDES Value of Treasury Stock

PREFERRED STOCK :- Nil RETAINED EARNINGS :- Annual Increase > 7%

TREASURY STOCK :- Should appear and be regularly purchased

RETURN ON SHAREHOLDER’S EQUITY (ROE) :- Net Income/S.H.Equity > 25%

_______________________________________________________________

CASH FLOW STATEMENT.

INVESTING OPERATIONS :- Based on +/-10 Year Period, Capital Expenditure/Net Earnings < 50% For DCA company this ratio is consistently < 25%.

FINANCING ACTIVITIES :- “Issuance (Retirement) of Stock, Net” to be a regular NEGATIVE Value. This indicates a NET Buying Back of its own Shares compared to a NET Issuance of its Shares. _______________________________________________________________

BUFFET’S EQUITY BOND. THE THEORY.

Companies with DURABLE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE (DCA) can be seen as an EQUITY BOND with a COUPON.

Equity Bond = Share Price Bond

Coupon = Pretax Earnings/Share

DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

 Stock Market will price a DCA company’s Equity Bond at a level that approximately reflects the Value of its Earnings RELATIVE to the Yield on LONG TERM CORPORATE BONDS (LTCB)

Equity Bond = Share Price = Coupon Rate/Long Term Corporate Bond Rate (LTCBR)

Coupon Rate/LTCBR = Pretax Earnings/LTCBR

WHEN TO BUY.

 (1) Buy during Bear Markets or when share prices are depressed due to no fault of the company

 (2) Buy when Share Price < Pretax Earnings per Share/LTCBR by a reasonable discount

WHEN TO SELL.

 (1) Sell when presented with a BETTER company at a BETTER Price

 (2) Sell when a current DCA company is losing its Durable Competitive Advantage

 (3) Sell during Bull Markets or when prices are at unrealistically HIGH levels

 (4) Sell when P/E ratios > 40+, especially if the stock’s price far EXCEEDS THE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC REALITIES OF THE BUSINESS

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26423391

Wednesday 27 October 2010

Buffet: Bond Investor in the Equity Market


’s strategy, in its , is  with equal or less risk than . He bought financial instruments with the amount of risk as bonds, the amount of return achievable with equities, and at prices that over-compensate the actual risk entailed by delivering greater returns. 

In Essence, Buffet is a bond  who does his shopping in the equity market. Sometimes Mr. Market gets confused and sells “equity-bonds” at a discount to , because he feels the risk outweighs the potential return. Buffet knows that in the long-run there are select stocks that actually provide much greater returns than bonds with less risk.

How is it possible that a stock could be less risky than bonds? Especially given that the market has always valued equities with a risk premium over bonds? Well, if one finds stocks with a solid historical record of always paying a steady dividend, and increasing payouts with , then those stocks can be considered “bond like.” Buffet’s prefers to look at stocks as “equity-bonds.” His goal is to find firms with solid economic moats so that  are never a risk of decreasing, much similar to   provide.  In this aspect, a stock is very much the same as a bond. Second, Buffet searches for those companies that can increase their dividend at a rate at least equal to  + , but ideally, those firms that can grow at even higher pace. This growth ability of  provides the equity characteristics of “equity-bonds.” In summary, Buffet likes to find stocks that are no different than bonds in regard to safe, predictable cash flows, yet the equity or “ownership” component allows the  to share in firms’ success as  payouts increase

Bonds have fixed  payments. Whether a firm is an average or top performer makes little difference to . Since the upside potential is limited for , the amount of risk of their investment is lower due to “first in line” claims on assets over equity holders.
But, if one buys a solid enough business where the possibility of default is so infinitesimal, does it really matter who is at the head of the line ? in a situation that will never occur? If the cash flows are not at risk to neither debt nor equity holders then there should be no need for an equity risk premium. Additionally, actually face more risk over the long-term than equity holders.
First is  risk.
Since interest payments on debt are fixed, higher future  eats up bond returns. Yet, for stockholders, companies can increase their  to keep pace with . Since  stems from companies charging higher prices, then sales and income will be higher resulting in higher dividend payments.
Second is re-investment risk.
If interest rates fall resulting in robust economic growth, bond payments are re-invested at lower current interest rates, whereas public firms can re-invest the  internally to capitalize on the favorable growth environment. In sum, debt holders face re-investing at lower return opportunities contrary to equity holders.
Third is interest rate risk inherent in bonds.
This risk increases with maturity. If the economy is robust and interest rates rise due to demand for capital and loanable funds, previously issued bonds lose value. If a bondholder has been receiving a 6% semi-annual coupon and rates move to 8%, then the  loses out on higher  currently available in the market since the interest payment is fixed.
Additionally, if the bond is sold before maturity then it would be sold at a discount to face value, hence a loss. On the other hand, robust economic activity benefits firms as revenues and profits grow. This allows the stockholders to participate in economic windfalls by increased .
Over a long time horizon, It is evident that stocks have much less risk than in a comparison of bonds and stocks over a short time horizon. It is also fathomable that a few, select stocks may be less risky than bonds over the long-run. In essence, there should then be a negative equity risk premium since bonds carry more risk relative to Buffet’s “equity-bonds” and additionally provide larger returns.


So what does all this mean? When the market applies risk premiums greater than the actual inherent risk, those stocks are undervalued. The market makes risk adjustments to stocks by taking down the stock price, thus lowering price-earnings multiples to increase required return. When investors perceive lower risk they bid up prices and multiples resulting in lower required rates of return.
Buffet dislikes bull markets. Rising stock prices make him anxious. Buffet only cares about the price paid- NOT the current market price due to his intention of holding the shares forever. He seeks to buy stocks that are solid enough he would never sell thus making current market prices of holdings irrelevant.
Since he only cares about the price he pays, upward markets mean Buffet has to pay more for an “equity-bond” resulting in lower future returns. Falling markets allow Buffet to buy attractive investments at a lower prices which, in itself, adds to the attractiveness. Stock prices fall to increase required returns resulting from higher risk premiums being priced-in by the market. If the long-term risks remain unchanged, then investors are getting higher returns without the additional risk. This is how Buffet views investing.
 was able to capitalize on the mispricing of risk in the market. Especially the price of risk viewed from a long-term vantage point. He bought stocks that traded at multiples much too low for the risks involved and the firm’s future growth prospects. Additionally, the market as a whole traded at a 5% – 6% premium to  when Buffet started BRK. That premium has fallen to the 3% range today, and will probably fall even further.
Buffet understood that there are stocks that are less risky than bonds when viewed from the long-run approach. He saw much of the time markets assigned too large of risk premiums creating investment opportunities.
Today, it is much more difficult. The market applies higher multiples to stocks that have “equity-bond” characteristics resulting in lower returns. Buffet has demonstrated to the  class that superior returns can be earned of the long-run with minimal risk. Having become apparent, most Buffet type stocks command a premium making it tougher to attain outsized “Buffet-like” returns.
Many investors have adopted Buffet’s philosophy in hopes of achieving his high returns, eliminating much of the opportunities underpinning the advantages of the Buffet philosophy. Even Buffet himself admitted it has become harder for him to invest with as much “Buffet Savvy”
http://www.financems.com/buffet-bond-investor-in-the-equity-market.html