Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts

Tuesday 24 March 2015

The Shrinking Ringgit































http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/12/22/the-shrinking-ringgit/

From 1980 until 2012, Malaysia GDP per capita PPP averaged US$9,336.30, reaching an all time high of US$14,774.60 in December of 2012 and a record low of US$5,063.40 in December of 1980.

Maximising your ringgit

With all these in mind, what then can you do to stretch your ringgit to its fullest? Sjimons lists eight tips to help the average consumer trim costs and spend wisely:

A. If you have savings beyond two or three times your monthly income, don’t let them sit idle in a low-interest deposit account.

1) Invest a portion of your monthly income in Amanah Saham Bumiputera/National schemes. These have provided average effective yields of 8.81 and 6.11 per cent respectively over the past three years. Although there is no upside through capital appreciation, there is no risk of capital depreciation either.

2) Invest a portion of your savings in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). By law, at least 90 per cent of taxable income is required to be paid out on a quarterly basis. Some REITs even have monthly payouts to unit holders. Yields range between 4.58 per cent  to 7.52 per cent across all 14 Bursa-listed REITs. This is an especially good project for people looking to retire who want to create a regular income stream.


Thursday 11 July 2013

Taking small steps out of cash


Generating the returns required for a longer retirement needn't mean a wholesale change of strategy, says Alex Hoctor-Duncan.


There are three reasons why investors stay in cash: 
1.  they like the income, 
2.  they like the idea of their money being protected and 
3.  they worry about volatility. 
Investors also like the capital preservation that cash offers.
But there is inherent risk. Returns are low, so investors run the risk of seeing their purchasing power ravaged by inflation over the long term.
I sense that people are starting to recognise the limitations of cash. They feel they should look to make their money work harder, particularly as they are likely to be living longer.
However, what they want to achieve with their savings – a secure retirement with a good income – and what they are doing to achieve it, are not properly aligned. Simply saving in cash is not necessarily going to generate the returns required for a longer retirement.
This needn’t mean a wholesale change of strategy; it could be more about taking small steps out of cash, about consulting an IFA and revisiting their financial goals. It could mean looking again at how and where they invest – in the UK or internationally – and working with the adviser to set new objectives and plot the path towards those goals.
If taking small steps is the path an investor chooses, the smart option is not to take all the money out of traditional cash or bond investments. Taking a portion of that money and looking for investments which provide an element of more flexible income could be one step that less risk-averse investors could take towards achieving their goals.
The earlier they take action the better, but it is never too late. However, wait 10 years and contribution levels might need to be double what they would have been.
Moving out of cash and safe haven investments in search of higher returns will involve accepting a greater risk of capital loss. You may get back less than you originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/finance/blackrock/10121192/blackrock-investment-strategy.html


Saturday 6 April 2013

HOW WARREN BUFFETT HEDGES HIMSELF AGAINST INFLATION



Good interview Buffett starts talking about how he hedges himself and what you can use to hedge yourself against inflation starting at 16.42

Tuesday 26 March 2013

Benjamin Graham's Intelligent Investor - The Defensive Investor is best served by purchasing common stocks and bonds to protect against inflation.


Inflation
Fixed income investments fare worse during inflationary periods than do common stocks. 
During inflationary periods, firms can increase prices, profits, and dividends causing their share price to increase and offsetting declines in purchasing power.
In 1970, the most probable average future rate of inflation was 3%. 
The investor can not count on more than a 10% return above the net tangible assets of the DJIA. 
This is consistent with the suggestion that the average investor may earn a dividend return of 3.6% on their market value and 4% on reinvested profits. 
There is no underlying connection between inflation and the movement of common stock earnings and prices. 
Appreciation does not result from inflation, but rather from the re-investment of profits. 
The only way for inflation to increase common stock values is to raise the rate of earnings on capital investment, which it has not done historically.
Economic prosperity usually is accompanied by slight inflation, which does not affect returns. 
Offsetting factors include rising wage rates that exceed productivity gains and additional capital needs that cause interest rates to increase.  
The investor has no reason to believe that he can achieve average annual returns better than 8% on DJIA type investments. 
Graham describes alternatives to common stocks as a hedge against inflation. 
These alternatives range from gold and diamonds to rare paintings, stamps, and coins. 
Gold has performed poorly, far worse than returns from savings in a bank account. 
The latter categories, such as paying thousands of dollars for a rare coin, can not qualify as an “investment operation.” 
Real Estate is still another alternative; however, its value fluctuates widely, and serious errors may be made when purchasing individual locations. 
Again, the defensive investor is best served by purchasing a portfolio of carefully chosen common stocks and bonds.

Saturday 22 December 2012

How Warren Buffett hedges himself against Inflation



17 minutes into the video: Warren Buffett talks about investing and inflation.
Good businesses are the cheapest investment to acquire by far.
Buffett: "I love owning businesses."

Thursday 1 November 2012

A Primer On Inflation - Is Inflation always bad?

A Primer On Inflation

Inflation instantly brings to mind images of rising prices, shrinking paychecks and unhappy consumers, but is inflation all bad?

Inflation is defined as a "sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services." Many consumers fear inflation because it reduces the purchasing power of their money. The influence that inflation has on consumers in the United States and other developed nations can be seen in gasoline prices, to name one example. When the price of gasoline goes up, it costs you more money to fill up your vehicle at the gas pump. Although the amount of money allocated to fuel takes a bigger percentage of your paycheck, you get the same amount of gas. This hit to your bottom line leaves you with less money to spend on other items.

In less-developed countries, food price inflation is an ever-greater concern. When the price of basic food items increases significantly, low-income consumers experience severe hardships. In recent years, food price inflation has resulted in public demonstrations and rioting in numerous countries across the globe, including Chile, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria.

Measuring Inflation
There are several ways to measure inflation. Headline inflation is the raw inflation figure as reported through the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the CPI monthly. It calculates the cost to purchase a fixed basket of goods as a way of determining how much inflation is occurring in the broad economy as an annual percentage increase. For example, a headline inflation figure of 3% equates to a monthly rate that, if repeated for 12 months, would create 3% inflation for the year.

The headline inflation figure is not adjusted for seasonal changes in the economy or for the often-volatile elements of food and energy prices. Headline inflation is the measure that has the most meaning for consumers, as we have to eat food and fuel our cars.

Core inflation, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred yardstick, is a measure of inflation that excludes food and energy. Core inflation eliminates these items because they can have temporary price shocks that can diverge from the overall trend of inflation and give what the prognosticators at the Federal Reserve view as a false measure of inflation. Core inflation is most often calculated by taking the Consumer Price Index and excluding certain items (usually energy and food products). Other methods of calculation include the outliers method, which removes the products that have had the largest price changes. Core inflation is thought to be an indicator of underlying long-term inflation.

Several variations on inflation are also worth noting. Hyperinflation is unusually rapid inflation. In extreme cases, this can lead to the breakdown of a nation's monetary system. One of the most notable examples of hyperinflation occurred in Germany in 1923, when prices rose 2,500% in a single month.

Stagflation is the combination of high unemployment and economic stagnation with inflation. This happened in industrialized countries during the 1970s, when a bad economy was combined with OPEC raising oil prices.

At the other end of the spectrum is deflation, which occurs when the general level of prices is falling. This is the opposite of inflation.

The Good Side of Inflation
Inflation has such a negative connotation that many people fail to consider the good side of inflation. Yes, inflation means that it costs more money to purchase items that were previously available at a lower price. However, it can also mean that the prices of homes, precious metals, stocks, bonds and other assets are rising. For the owners of those assets, inflation can have a wealthbuilding effect. Inflation can also result in rising wages. If wages rise as quickly as the cost of goods and services, then the rising wages can offset the rising prices.

Monetary Policy
The United States, Great Britain and some other nations have set targets for the desired inflation rate. A January 2012 press release issued by the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee sums up the policy in the U.S. and highlights the reasons behind it.

"The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence, the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2%, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. Communicating this inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long-term interest rates, and enhancing the Committee's ability to promotemaximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances."

That short paragraph sum up a complex and controversial set of issues. It starts with the Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank in the U.S. and its dual objectives of maintaining a modest level of inflation and a low rate of unemployment. In order to achieve these objectives, the Fed controls monetary policy. The term "monetary policy" refers to the actions that the Federal Reserve undertakes to influence the amount of money and credit in the U.S. economy.

Changes to the amount of money and credit affect interest rates (the cost of credit) and the performance of the U.S. economy. To state this concept simply, if the cost of credit is reduced, more people and firms will borrow money and spend it, and this spending will then foster economic growth. Similarly, if interest rates increase, it costs more to borrow money. When this happens, fewer people and firms borrow money, which results in decreased spending and slower economic growth.

The Bottom Line
Putting it all together, the Fed uses its tools to control the supply of money to help stabilize the economy. When the economy is slumping, the Fed increases the supply of money to spur growth. This fuels inflation. Conversely, when inflation is threatening, the Fed reduces the risk by shrinking the supply. It all sounds simple enough until you view it in the context of the many other factors that influence the economy in the U.S. In this larger context, monetary policy, inflation and just about everything else associated with these topics become fodder for economists, politicians, academics and just about everyone else to discuss and debate.



http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/12/inflation-primer.asp#axzz2AmPnsMqp



Wednesday 15 August 2012

The greatest threat to your future financial security

The greatest threat to your future financial security is the loss, over time, in the purchasing power of power currencies.  A dollar today buys less than 5% of what a dollar bought 100 years ago.

Study the fascinating history and theory of money and use this knowledge as a basis in formulating and guiding your investment philosophy.

Tuesday 26 June 2012

Nervous UK investors make a dash for cash

Thousands of nervous investors are shunning shares as the financial crisis drags on.

Family sheltering their savings
Investors opting for the safety of cash amid the economic debt crisis Photo: Howard McWilliam


British investors are making a dash for cash as the eurozone turmoil shows no sign of abating. Stockbrokers, fund providers and investment managers all say that investors with Sipps (self-invested personal pensions) and Isas are keeping their powder dry by investing in cash rather than stocks and shares.
At the end of May, one leading fund broker, Bestinvest, said 75pc of the money invested by its clients went straight into cash as the uncertainty around Spanish banks and a Greek default put investors off.
Last month Fidelity's Fundsnetwork said 36pc of all investments went into cash funds, compared with an average of just 3pc, while Skandia said twice as much money was invested in cash in May as in April.
Barclays' investment management arm has also reported increased demand from investors to move money into cash. Oliver Gregson, an investment manager at the bank, said it had been a year of two halves.
"Until March we saw investors being significantly 'risk on', with large flows into equities and other assets. Japan and the US were particularly popular," he said.
"However, in the past three months money has been coming out of markets, and deposits into cash are up."
Mr Gregson added that cash was the only asset class that could fulfil the remit set to him by many clients at the moment: not to lose capital.
Such is the market uncertainty that Barclays is allocating a substantial 45pc of low-risk investors' portfolios to cash. Move up the risk appetite scale and the proportion is reduced to 12pc for those who want moderate risk and 7pc for those who have high tolerance.
Barclays uses a mixture of floating-rate notes, short-term bonds and instant-access accounts for its clients' cash allocation – with at least half of the money in instant-access accounts for liquidity purposes.
Mark Dampier of Hargreaves Lansdown, the advisory firm, said cash was the more attractive asset for investors right now.
"While many cash accounts fail to beat the rate of inflation, at least your capital is protected if you keep it in cash," he said. "It may be an unpopular view among advisers, but the markets can lose you money."
Mr Dampier added that although fixed-rate accounts might offer a greater return on your money than the "cash park" facilities found on fund supermarket platforms, the most important thing about today's market conditions was keeping your assets liquid.
Cash parks allow investors to "park" their cash before investing it in an Isa, protecting its tax-free status and buying the individual more time to choose which fund to invest in. You can then return to the investment platform when you consider there is a worthy investment opportunity and transfer your money into a stock or fund without losing its tax-efficient status.
The cash park on the Hargreaves Lansdown platform pays 0.25pc for deposits of more than £50,000, 0.1pc for less. Fidelity Fundsnetwork's cash park facility pays Bank Rate minus 0.2 percentage points – currently 0.3pc. Bestinvest's facility pays 0.25pc on deposits of more than £20,000, but nothing for smaller sums.
Mr Dampier said: "The market moves so much at the moment that there may be a buying opportunity today that has passed in a week. If your cash is locked away in a 30-day notice account, that is no good," he said.
"Yes, you may not get an inflation-beating return in the cash park, but your capital is protected and your portfolio liquid."
While savers' fears about investing in the market are well founded, Adrian Lowcock of Bestinvest urged them to steel their nerve if they could.
"There is no doubt that the uncertainty in Europe, particularly around the Greek elections, has put investors off. It is important that, if you do put cash aside in an Isa or Sipp while waiting to invest, you actually take action and invest it. Don't forget about it," he said.
"It is human nature not to act in times of crisis. Ultimately when investing they buy high and sell low, when in fact they should be looking for the longer term and buying on weakness, not waiting for a rebound."
The euro crisis has hit this year's Isa investors hard and their caution is understandable. Last week The Daily Telegraph's Your Money section disclosed that many savers will have seen as much as 25pc wiped off the value of their fund in just three months as global economic fears intensified.
Several of the biggest and most popular funds have been hardest hit. Aberdeen Emerging Markets, for example, was one of the best-selling Isas in the run-up to the end of the tax year. But anyone who invested £10,000 in mid-March would now be sitting on a fund worth £9,156, according to Morningstar.
An investor who bought the popular JP Morgan Natural Resources fund would have seen a £10,000 investment fall by almost £2,500 to just £7,683 – which means that the fund needs to climb by more than 30pc from here just for savers to break even.
And there is little sign of relief on the horizon despite the Greek election result, which did not rule out the threat of the country exiting the euro.
Fund managers are in a cautious mood, too. A survey of 260 asset managers across the globe by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that cash positions rose to 5.3pc in June, levels similar to those seen at the height of the financial crisis in January 2009 and the highest since March 2003 and December 2008.

Falling sipp rates

The rates paid on cash by Sipp providers have come in for criticism in the past – last year several financial advisers branded them as "unacceptable".
Investors who choose to keep Sipp allowances in cash frequently earn Bank Rate (0.5pc) or less; the average rate is just 0.75pc, according to Investec Bank.
With inflation still riding high at 2.8pc, this gives negative real returns for hundreds of thousands of pension investors.
Advisers said that on average investors held almost 10pc of their Sipp in cash. Investors are allowed to deposit £50,000 or 100pc of their salary a year into a pension, whichever is the lower. This means that potentially £5,000 a year of pension savings is guaranteed to be eroded by inflation.
The average amount of cash held in a Sipp is £39,000, Investec said, with some investors having as much as £50,000 in cash – built up over years of pension contributions.
Lionel Ross of Investec said: "The stagnant Bank Rate is having a knock-on effect on the rates paid on the cash element of Sipps. Advisers are now waking up to the need to challenge their current cash account provider to ensure that their clients are getting the highest possible returns on their deposits, which should in turn enhance overall pension fund performance.
"Given ongoing market volatility, investors, particularly those nearing retirement, are increasing their cash allocation. However, it is essential that they check that this money is held in an account paying a competitive rate of interest."
Around £90bn is held in Sipp accounts nationwide.
Not all Sipp cash rates are bad, however. Investec's own offering pays 2.25pc for sums of £25,000 or more. James Hay Partnership pays between 1.4pc and 2.9pc, and Hargreaves Lansdown said it offered fixed deals paying up to 2.5pc for Sipp holders who wanted to hold cash for three months or more.
But Darius McDermott of Chelsea Financial Services warned investors to avoid cash funds. "There are funds that invest in cash or cash equivalents but other than providing more of a 'safe haven' for your money, as they invest across more than one financial institution, they offer little incentive at the moment. Most are returning only in the region of the Bank Rate so you'd be better off in a bog-standard savings account," he said.
Moneyfacts, the financial information service, said a higher-rate taxpayer would need to find an account paying at least 4.7pc to negate the impact of tax and inflation. However, there are few accounts available that will pay this much, meaning that once people have exhausted their Isa allowance they will struggle.
Basic-rate taxpayers have more luck, with 210 accounts that overcome both the effect of inflation and the taxman's cut by paying 3.7pc or more.
Birmingham Midshires has a three-year fixed-rate bond that pays 4pc and can be opened with a deposit of just £1. Secure Trust Bank's five-year fixed-rate cash bond requires a larger deposit of £1,000 but pays an impressive 4.45pc.
The best one-year bond on the market is from Cahoot and pays 3.6pc. For instant access go to santander.co.uk – the bank's online saver account pays a market-leading 3.2pc and can be opened with £1.

Sunday 24 June 2012

Economic Factors - Price Changes in the Economy



InflationInflation is the economic condition characterized by continuously rising prices for goods and services. As a result, the purchasing power of a country's currency deteriorates as its value decreases and interest rates rise. 

What exactly causes inflation and how does it affect your investments and standard of living? See the tutorial: All About Inflation for the answers

There are two generally recognized types of inflation: demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.
  • Demand-Pull Inflation: The money supply is seen as the cause of this type of inflation. In this situation, the money supply is too large when compared with the supply of produced goods in the economy. Interest rates rise as a result, making it more expensive to borrow money. As a result, the money supply begins to shrink with the drop in lending activity.
  • Cost-Push Inflation: The rising cost of raw materials used to produce goods is seen as the cause of this type of inflation. Since manufacturers now need to pay more for these materials, they raise the prices on their products to compensate. As a result, retailers must pay more for goods, so they increase prices to pass the difference on to the consumer.
DeflationConversely, deflation is a persistent decline in the prices of goods and services usually caused by slowing market demand with a level supply. Purchasing power increases as a result of stagnant demand, fixed-income securities become more appealing, and producers must lower their prices to compete for the limited demand. 

Inflation usually has a negative effect on security prices, especially those equities that are particularly interest-rate sensitive, such as financials, smaller companies that rely on debt financing to grow, and cyclical businesses such as durable goods like heavy machinery, automobile and steel manufacturers, and other capital goods industries.


Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/finra-series-6/economic-factors/price-changes-economy.asp#ixzz1yhPyxhMx

Tuesday 3 April 2012

Money is actually a debt instrument. So grows the gap between the haves and have-nots.

When it come to personal-finance success, responsibility for how we earn, spend, save and invest is obviously essential. However, financial objectives can easily elude us if we lack the whole story about money. 
Central banks worldwide (Federal Reserve for the U.S.) issue currency at the precise moment it is borrowed via an automated procedure called fractional-reserve banking. Therefore, money is actually a debt instrument (Federal Reserve Note). This private profit, interest-delivering system was designed centuries ago.
Over time debt grows per compounding interest and purchasing power diminishes with increased cost of living. The cost of living rises as businesses add their interest cost from bank loans to the cost of the goods and services we purchase.
And so grows the gap between the haves and have-nots.
That brings me to the pivotal issue of how much purchasing power $1.00 has in the marketplace today. One dollar is only worth 4.5 cents and an online inflation calculator proves my point. An item purchased for $1.00 in 1913 (when the Federal Reserve System was created) would cost $22.10 in 2010; a 2000% increase in inflation!
Without a working knowledge of money as debt, even the most sincere efforts may falter as a rising cost of living erodes hard-won forward movement. When following conventional financial wisdom, the solution to keeping up and making ends meet could well end up, once again, as participation in the vicious cycle of credit and debt. Who benefits?

Thursday 1 March 2012

Cash and related currency assets: Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge.


Investments that are denominated in a given currency include money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments. Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as “safe.”  In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets.

  • Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge. 
  • Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as the holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal. 
  • This ugly result, moreover, will forever recur. 
  • Governments determine the ultimate value of money, and systemic forces will sometimes cause them to gravitate to policies that produce inflation. From time to time such policies spin out of control.


Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire.

  • It takes no less than $7 today to buy what $1 did at that time.
  • Consequently, a tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% interest annually from bond investments over that period to simply maintain its purchasing power. 
  • Its managers would have been kidding themselves if they thought of any portion of that interest as “income.”


For tax-paying investors like you and me, the picture has been far worse. During the same 47-year period, continuous rolling of U.S. Treasury bills produced 5.7% annually. That sounds satisfactory.

  • But if an individual investor paid personal income taxes at a rate averaging 25%, this 5.7% return would have yielded nothing in the way of real income. 
  • This investor’s visible income tax would have stripped him of 1.4 points of the stated yield, and 
  • the invisible inflation tax would have devoured the remaining 4.3 points.
  • It’s noteworthy that the implicit inflation “tax” was more than triple the explicit income tax that our investor probably thought of as his main burden. 
  • “In God We Trust” may be imprinted on our currency, but the hand that activates our government’s printing press has been all too human.


High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments – and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. 

  • Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. 
  • Right now bonds should come with a warning label.


Under today’s conditions, therefore, I do not like currency-based investments. Even so, Berkshire holds significant amounts of them, primarily of the short-term variety.

  • At Berkshire the need for ample liquidity occupies center stage and will never be slighted, however inadequate rates may be.  
  • Accommodating this need, we primarily hold U.S. Treasury bills, the only investment that can be counted on for liquidity under the most chaotic of economic conditions. 
  • Our working level for liquidity is $20 billion; $10 billion is our absolute minimum.


Beyond the requirements that liquidity and regulators impose on us, we will purchase currency-related securities only if they offer the possibility of unusual gain – either

  • because a particular credit is mispriced, as can occur in periodic junk-bond debacles, or
  • because rates rise to a level that offers the possibility of realizing substantial capital gains on high-grade bonds when rates fall. 
Though we’ve exploited both opportunities in the past – and may do so again – we are now 180 degrees removed from such prospects. Today, a wry comment that Wall Streeter Shelby Cullom Davis made long ago seems apt: “Bonds promoted as offering risk-free returns are now priced to deliver return-free risk.”


http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

Saturday 25 February 2012

What Warren Buffett says about Non-Commodity (Franchise) Companies


NON-COMMODITY COMPANIES

Warren Buffett prefers to invest in non-commodity companies - companies whose products or services are unique or special in some way.

Here customers either need the product, or there is no real competitor, or the reputation of the product is such that people will keep buying it. Suppliers and distributors have no choice but to stock the product or people will go elsewhere.

Generally, but not always, either the product will be a brand name (eg Coke, Gillette), the company will be a brand name (H & R Block) or the company will be in a monopoly situation or monopolistic cartel.


WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUT NON-COMMODITY COMPANIES


Warren Buffett illustrated this difference in 1982:
‘[There is the] constant struggle of every vendor to establish special qualities of product or services. This works with candy bars (customers buy by brand name, not by asking for a "two-ounce candy bar") but doesn't work with sugar (how often do you hear, "I’ll have a cup of coffee with cream and C & H sugar, please").’

What Warren Buffett says about Commodity Companies


COMMODITY COMPANIES

Warren Buffett does not like to invest in what he calls commodity companies - companies whose product does not differ from that of competitors in any significant way.

A company like this can be vulnerable to the actions of competitors and have limited power to raise prices to retain their profit position in the light of inflation.

WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUT COMMODITY COMPANIES

Warren Buffett said this in 1982:

‘[Where] costs and prices are determined by full-bore competition, there is more than ample capacity, and the buyer cares little about whose product or distribution services he uses, industry economics are almost certain to be unexciting. They may well be disastrous.’

Money is actually a debt instrument: Over time debt grows per compounding interest and purchasing power diminishes with increased cost of living


Traditional financial recommendations typically ignore the risk factor represented by how money works in context of its monetary system. Same as with health issues; without knowledge of the cause of symptoms, treatments generally lack full effectiveness.
When it come to personal-finance success, responsibility for how we earn, spend, save and invest is obviously essential. However, financial objectives can easily elude us if we lack the whole story about money. The missing piece is systemic in nature. Overlooked and under reported, impersonal monetary-system mechanics grind away to leave families vulnerable; undermining goals of stability and wealth-building.
Also known as a hidden tax. Who benefits?
Central banks worldwide (Federal Reserve for the U.S.) issue currency at the precise moment it is borrowed via an automated procedure called fractional-reserve banking. Therefore, money is actually a debt instrument (Federal Reserve Note). This private profit, interest-delivering system was designed centuries ago.
Over time debt grows per compounding interest and purchasing power diminishes with increased cost of living. The cost of living rises as businesses add their interest cost from bank loans to the cost of the goods and services we purchase.
And so grows the gap between the haves and have-nots.
That brings me to the pivotal issue of how much purchasing power $1.00 has in the marketplace today. One dollar is only worth 4.5 cents and an online inflation calculator proves my point. An item purchased for $1.00 in 1913 (when the Federal Reserve System was created) would cost $22.10 in 2010; a 2000% increase in inflation!
It's a fact: Skilled advisers are definitely helping families lower their debt-loads and modify their budgets. That said, the "good-debt, bad-debt" conversation remains as conventional truth; leading individuals and families to believe they can tweak their budget and lifestyle here and there to make it through to better days.
Unfortunately, such household gains may not last. Without a working knowledge of money as debt, even the most sincere efforts may falter as a rising cost of living erodes hard-won forward movement. When following conventional financial wisdom, the solution to keeping up and making ends meet could well end up, once again, as participation in the vicious cycle of credit and debt. Who benefits?
More choices with the big picture.
When we add the missing-piece about money to our knowledge-base and decision-making process we also gain additional financial strategies. Those who set out to explore alternatives outside-the-traditional-personal-finance-box tend to develop a new part of their brain.They uncover a world of possibilities (perhaps previously under-valued) along with the thousands of others on the very same mission!


Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/5646119

Thursday 16 February 2012

UK Inflation Report

Sir Mervyn King has got his mojo back


Biff! (Photo: Bloomberg)
Sir Mervyn King hasn’t looked so relaxed for ages. The Bank of England Governor even found time at the Inflation Report press conference to quip, when asked whether he had trouble sleeping given the risks in the economy, that he’d “given up not sleeping at night and decided to sleep instead”.
When he wasn’t cracking jokes, he was hitting back at his critics and claiming bullishly that Britain was light years ahead of the rest of the developed world in dealing with its problems.
“We said that inflation would come down. It is coming down,” he said. “Certainly, those people who said [money printing] would lead us down the path of the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe have been proved wrong.” Biff. One in the solar plexus for those testy economists.
“More than any other advanced economy, we are in the position that we’ve put in place the conditions that are needed to make that big adjustment,” he continued. “There is a credible medium-term fiscal plan to put our deficit in shape and to get back to a point where the ratio of national debt to GDP can begin to fall back.” Boff. One on the chin for the US and the awkward squad in the eurozone.
Coming on the back of a year in which Sir Mervyn endlessly reminded us all how terrible life would be (sharpest decline in living standards since the 1920s, seven lean years, that kind of thing), this was a Governor not just in high spirits but on fighting form.
The fall in inflation from 4.2pc to 3.6pc last month and the Bank’s outlook that it will be below 2pc before the year-end was probably behind his good mood. Having written nine letters in a row to the Chancellor to explain why inflation was so far above target, the last being on Monday, he has the genuine prospect of putting down his pen for a while now.
Declining inflation will allow the Bank – and the Governor – to justify its decision not to tackle high inflation by raising rates. And as it falls, the pressure on household finances will ease – so clearing the Governor’s conscience of the one ill side-effect of the Bank’s policy. “The ease on real incomes is already being seen,” he even ventured.
Beyond that, though, there was not much good news for the rest of us. The recovery will be “a zig-zag pattern of alternative positive and negative quarterly growth rates”. The right policy may be in place to get Britain back on track, but it will “take a long time”. The euro crisis still poses an unknowable risk and, even if the problems are contained, the UK will face headwinds to growth. Households will also have to face up to “a marked reduction in their future earning prospects”.
There is little more that policy can do to get the recovery motoring, either. Sir Mervyn pointed to the “automatic stabilisers”, the benefits that kick in to help those who lose their jobs, for example, and “supply side reforms”, roughly translated as improving taxes and regulations to encourage businesses to hire and invest. Hardly the big economic kick desired.
“Patience is a virtue I would urge on all of us,” he said. Rates look like remaining at 0.5pc through to March 2014 and there may even by more quantitative easing on top of the £325bn committed already.
Waiting for the recovery may be made easier by low borrowing costs and improving family finances, but that’s about as optimistic as the Governor suggested we can get.


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/philipaldrick/100014950/sir-mervyn-king-has-got-his-mojo-back/