One Year Performance of Selected Stocks in KLSE (3)

OSK Research maintains Buy on Tenaga, FV RM9.76

OSK Research maintains Buy on Tenaga, FV RM9.76
Written by Joseph Chin
Monday, 15 November 2010 16:16


KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy on TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] with a fair value of RM9.76 following the latest development that the power giant's proposed Lahad Datu coal plant is suspended.

At 4.08pm, Tenaga is up one sen to RM8.52 with 4.11 million shares done on Monday, Nov 15.

OSK Research issued the flash note after the Sabah Environment Minister had said that as far as he was concerned the project was suspended.

“This latest news come as no surprise. We do note however, that there has been a short sharp selldown on TNB last week for which we cannot really indentify a clear reason. This news may have contributed as well as the weakness in the Ringgit.

“In our model, sensitivity analysis shows that for every 1% weakness in ringgit, TNB’s net profit are cut by 1.5% due to higher coal costs. However, the strength in USD should be offset somewhat by weakness in coal prices,” it said.

OSK Research said in any case, its assumptions are very conservative already at US$100 coal price at RM3.13 to the USD for FY11.

“We also note that TNB is a rare post election stock as AFTER the elections, tariff may well go up. Our sensitivity shows for every 1% hike in tariff, TNB’s net profits are raised by 7%,” it said.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/177139-osk-research-maintains-buy-on-tenaga-fv-rm976.html

Tenaga

Date announced 28/10/2010
Quarter 31/08/2010 Qtr 4
FYE 31/08/2010

STOCK Tenaga
C0DE  5347 

Price $ 8.51 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 11.53 Curr. DY 3.06%
LFY Div 26.00 DPO ratio 35%
ROE 11.2% PBT Margin 6.4% PAT Margin 4.9%

Rec. qRev 7869400 q-q % chg 2% y-y% chq 5%
Rec qPbt 499900 q-q % chg -61% y-y% chq 92%
Rec. qEps 8.94 q-q % chg -65% y-y% chq 136%
ttm-Eps 73.78 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 249%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 3% Avg.H PE 12.00 Avg. L PE 11.00
Forecast High Pr 10.26 Forecast Low Pr 7.73 Recent Severe Low Pr 7.73
Current price is at Lower 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 69% Downside 31%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 4%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 8%

CPE/SPE 1.00 P/NTA 1.29 NTA 6.61 SPE 11.50 Rational Pr 8.48


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

OSK Research maintains Buy on Tenaga, FV RM9.90

OSK Research maintains Buy on Tenaga, FV RM9.90

Written by OSK Research
Wednesday, 25 August 2010 08:45


KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is keeping its earnings forecast for TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] intact and maintains its Buy call on the power giant and its discounted cashflow fair value of RM9.90

The research house said on Wednesday, Aug 25 that with the ringgit strengthening to RM3.13 versus the US dollar and Australian coal prices falling back to US$86 per tonne from a recent high of US$108 per tonne, there has been some buying interest on TNB.

“Nonetheless, given the volatility of coal prices, we are keeping our effective cost of coal for FY11 and beyond unchanged at US$98 per tonne. With our earnings intact, we maintain our Buy call on Tenaga and our DCF fair value of RM9.90,” it said.

Tenaga announced on Tuesday it has received a letter of offer from the Energy Commission (EC) to develop the 1x1000MW coal fired power plant on Tenaga’s existing power plant site in Manjung, Perak.

The plant is expected to have its commercial operation date on March 1, 2015 and still has to secure approvals for its environmental impact assessment, power purchase agreement and bidding selection for the engineering, procurement and commissioning contractor.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/172439-osk-research-maintains-buy-on-tenaga-fv-rm990.html

Tenaga proposes 1-for-4 bonus issue of up to 1.12b shares

Tenaga proposes 1-for-4 bonus issue of up to 1.12b shares

Written by The Edge Financial Daily
Thursday, 26 August 2010 23:42

KUALA LUMPUR: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] has proposed a one-for-four bonus issue of up to 1.12 billion shares of RM1 each with the entitlement date to be announced later.

As at May 31, 2010, its paid-up capital stood at RM4.35 billion, comprising 4.35 billion shares, while there were 129.85 million outstanding ESOS options.

In a statement to Bursa Malaysia Securities yesterday, Tenaga said the bonus issue would be carried out by capitalising up to RM1.12 billion from its share premium account, which amounted to RM5.27 billion as at Aug 31, 2009.

It said the proposal would reward existing shareholders and increase its capital base that would better reflect its size of operations, as well as improve the liquidity of its shares in the market. AmInvestment Bank Bhd has been appointed as the adviser to the proposal, which is expected to be completed by first quarter next year.

Stocks to watch: Tenaga, Bursa, MAS, Gamuda

Stocks to watch: Tenaga, Bursa, MAS, Gamuda


Written by Melody Song and Isabelle Francis
Wednesday, 21 April 2010 07:38

KUALA LUMPUR: Blue chips are expected to extend their gains on Wednesday, April 21, spurred by the firmer overnight close on Wall Street while fresh corporate earnings from power giant Tenaga Nasional and Bursa Malaysia should generate trading interest.

On Wall Street, US stocks rose on Tuesday, April 20 as oil prices lifted energy shares and investors were upbeat about the overall profits recovery, even as some high-profile results fell short of lofty expectations, according to Reuters.

The Dow Jones industrial average added 25.01 points, or 0.23 percent, to 11,117.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 9.65 points, or 0.81 percent, to 1,207.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 20.20 points, or 0.81 percent, to 2,500.31.

Stocks to watch are Tenaga Nasional, BURSA MALAYSIA BHD [], MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD [], HONG LEONG BANK BHD [], EON CAPITAL BHD [], AFFIN HOLDINGS BHD [], GAMUDA BHD [] and related water stocks.

Tenaga Nasional said it would not be sourcing power from the Bakun Hydroelectric dam in Sarawak and has mapped out alternative plans to meet the increasing power demand in the peninsula.

In its second quarter ended Feb 28, it posted net profit of RM1 billion, up 48% from RM674.6 million a year ago, underpinned by higher revenue as electricity demand rose, a more stable generation cost and foreign exchange translation gain of RM144.4 million.

Revenue was RM7.389 billion, up 7% or RM482.5 million against RM6.906 billion a year ago. Earnings per share were 23.05 sen versus 15.56 sen. It declared dividend of six sen per share.

Bursa Malaysia may rise after it posted an 81% increase in net profit to RM28.05 million for 1Q10 due to improved investor confidence that resulted in stronger performance in the securities market. Revenue rose 37.3% increase to RM88.11 million for the period.

Malaysia Airline System will also be in focus following an announcement yesterday that from April 15 to 20, 2010, it had cancelled 46 of its Europe-bound flights due to the spread of the volcanic ash cloud from Iceland.

Its flight cancellation involved an average some 14,000 passengers. International airlines are estimated to have lost US$250 million a day due to the closure of airspace, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) describing the impact of the volcano eruption being bigger than the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the US.

Hong Leong Bank Bhd (HLBB) and EON Capital Bhd (EONCap) have received approval from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) for the former to undertake a due diligence on the latter, sources said.

Meanwhile, Affin Holdings Bhd has again tried to tone down market speculation that it was interested in acquiring EON Capital and would be ready to make a better offer to outbid rival Hong Leong Bank.

Gamuda Bhd revised its bid to buy the entire Selangor water assets and operations via its 40% associate Syarikat Pengeluar Air Sungai Selangor Sdn Bhd (Splash).

Under the revised offer, Splash will not own, but lease water assets from Pengurusan Aset Air Bhd. Its earlier offer of RM10.75 billion remains unchanged.

The CONSTRUCTION [] cum utilities stock is expected to see some movement after closing unchanged at RM2.95 yesterday.

PUNCAK NIAGA HOLDINGS BHD [], which owns 70% of the state water distribution arm, Syarikat Bekalan Air Selangor Sdn Bhd (Syabas), ended one sen higher at RM2.63. KUMPULAN PERANGSANG SELANGOR [] Bhd, which owns 30% in Splash, was up four sen at RM1.46.

RAMUNIA HOLDINGS BHD [], which has just completed the sale of its fabrication yard to SIME DARBY BHD [] for RM515 million, will focus on marine engineering as its core business, said its chairman Datuk Azizan Abdul Rahman.

Another stock to watch is Axis Real Estate Investment Trust (Axis REIT), which recorded a 36.9% increase in net profit for 1Q10 versus 1Q09 to RM14.27 million.

However, net profit was 50.40% lower in the quarter from 4Q09, due to capital expenditure incurred for the refurbishment of Quattro West (formerly Nestle House), which it expects to come on stream in 3Q10.

The trust also announced its proposed acquisition of a warehouse and office building at Tanjung Pelepas Port in Johor for RM30 million.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/164370-stocks-to-watch-tenaga-bursa-mas-gamuda.html

A quick look at Tenaga (20.4.2010)

Wright Quality Rating: AAB4 Rating Explanations


A quick look at Tenaga 20.4.2010
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=ti4gKGN8X2mWhDORvdhN2Tw&output=html


Tenaga 2Q net profit at RM1b
Tags: borrowings | forex gains | Tenaga

Written by Isabelle Francis
Tuesday, 20 April 2010 17:23

KUALA LUMPUR: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] posted net profit of RM1 billion in its second quarter ended Feb 28, 2010, up 48% from RM674.6 million a year ago, underpinned by higher revenue as electricity demand rose, a more stable generation cost and foreign exchange translation gain of RM144.4 million.

It said on Tuesday, April 20 that revenue was RM7.389 billion, up 7% or RM482.5 million against RM6.906 billion a year ago. Earnings per share were 23.05 sen versus 15.56 sen. It declared dividend of six sen per share.

"The improvement was derived mainly from sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia which recorded an increase of 7.5% or RM476.2 million and the unit sold registered a growth of 13.8% compared with corresponding period," it said.

Tenaga said the improved earnings were underpinned by higher revenue from the increase in electricity demand growth and a more stable generation cost as coal prices remained under control during the quarter.

"Stronger Ringgit against Dollar and Yen has contributed to the foreign exchange translation gain of RM144.4 million in the current quarter compared to a loss of RM97.0 million recorded in the corresponding period last financial year," it said.

As at Feb 28, 2010, its borrowings were RM22.38 billion compared with RM22.616 billion as at Aug 31, 2009. Of the borrowings as at Feb 28, 2010, Tenaga said RM5.574 billion of the loans were in yen and RM5.125 billion in US dollar while the rest were in ringgit.

For the first half, it said revenue was RM14.727 billion, up 2.8% from RM14.321 billion in the previous corresponding period. Sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia increased 3.3% or RM436.3 million.

"The company recorded an increase in demand of 8.0% growth as compared to the corresponding period last year," it said.

Its first half's earnings were RM1.706 billion, a turnaround from the net loss of RM269.5 million a year ago. The improved earnings were mainly due to a sharp rebound in electricity demand growth while costs remained under control.

During the first half, the stronger ringgit has also contributed to the better results as Tenaga recorded a foreign exchange translation gain of RM99.0 million as compared to a loss of RM1.536 billion in FY2009.

Tenaga said that when compared to the first quarter, its revenue of RM7.39 billion was RM50.8 million higher than the preceding quarter revenue of RM7.338 billion, which was a marginal increase of 0.7%.

The second quarter saw its operating expenses decline by RM13.4 million from RM6.179 billion to RM6.166 billion or 0.2%, mainly due to a more stable generation costs as coal prices remained under control.

The Group recorded foreign exchange translation gain of RM144.4 million compared to a loss of RM45.4 million recorded in the preceding quarter mainly due to the weakening of Japanese Yen against Ringgit during the quarter under review.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/164324-flash-tenaga-2q-net-profit-at-rm1b.html

Tenaga inches up, tariff worries overblown

Tenaga inches up, tariff worries overblown

Tags: OSK Research | tariffs | Tenaga

Written by Joseph Chin
Friday, 08 January 2010 09:50

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] rose in early trade on Friday, Jan 8 after OSK Investment Research said investors' worries about the tariffs were overblown.

At 9.44am, Tenaga was up three sen to RM8.23. There were 165,100 shares done.

On Thursday, Tenaga closed at RM8.20, its lowest since October last year as investors were concerned that it would not be able to get its proposed tariffs approved by the government. It hit an intra-day low of RM8.08.

"While we are maintaining our forecasts with an assumption of there being no tariff hike and coal at US$88 per tonne unchanged, we carried out a sensitivity analysis just to determine whether tariffs or cold weather would have a bigger impact on Tenaga," it said.

OSK Research said tariffs have a far larger impact on Tenaga's core net profits as well as its discounted cashflow-based fair value.

Even if cold weather does bring about a temporary spike in coal prices, the impact to Tenaga was not that significant while the lack of a tariff hike may mean some short-term knee jerk selling but ultimately this would have no impact to our earnings forecast.

"We believe that coal prices are still manageable for now and our forecasts do not include the effects of a tariff hike and therefore, any delay would also not impact on our estimates, our fair value or Buy call. Any selling should be viewed as an opportunity to Buy into weakness," it said.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/157055-tenaga-inches-up-tariff-worries-overblown.html