Showing posts with label tongher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tongher. Show all posts

Thursday 13 January 2011

A Brief Look at Tongher



2003 EPS 16.2 DPS 5.3
2004 EPS 35.4 DPS 14.0
2005 EPS 23.4 DPS 12.1
2006 EPS 43.7 DPS 13.0
2007 EPS 51.0 DPS 10.2
2008 EPS 14.4 DPS 13.9
2009 EPS 6.60 DPS 5.00
9M10 EPS 14.50 DPS 5.00

Price RM 2.73 (7.1.2011)
Estimated EPS for 2011 14.50*4/3 = 19.33
Projected PE for 2011 = 14.1 x

Historical
5 Yr
PE 10.7 - 17.4
DY% 5.8 - 3.1

10 Yr
PE 9.0 - 15.1
DY% 6.6 - 3.7


Capital Change
2007 1/2 Bonus


Comment:

Tongher is a cyclical stock.  Given the cyclical business that it is in, its share price has fluctuated wildly largely determined by its business cycle and the challenging environment.  It's share price has gone down a lot during the recent global financial crisis due to poor profits.  Its latest NTA per share was RM 2.29.

Since the company has remained profitable, its assets are generating profits and its balance sheet is not harmed or eaten away by toxic assets.  One can expect its profits to normalise and also its new investments to generate additional summative profits given time.

The high PE of Tongher during the early part of the global financial crisis was due to the fact that its profits fell faster than its share price.  With its profits recovering, its high PE is contracting, as its profits are growing at a faster rate than its share price.


Those holding this stock can expect to see real upside in the share price of Tongher over time.


Related:

Are Cyclical stocks also Value stocks? Value stocks usually earn money, turnaround stocks may not.

Wednesday 24 November 2010

Tong Herr Resources Berhad



Date announced 24/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3 FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK TONGHER C0DE  5010 

Price $ 1.86 Curr. ttm-PE  9.70 Curr. DY 2.69%
LFY Div 5.00 DPO ratio 26%
ROE 8.4% PBT Margin 21.6% PAT Margin 7.7%

Rec. qRev 109005 q-q % chg 71% y-y% chq 125%
Rec qPbt 23498 q-q % chg 135% y-y% chq 499%
Rec. qEps 6.57 q-q % chg 32% y-y% chq 136%
ttm-Eps 19.18 q-q % chg 25% y-y% chq 83%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 10.00 Avg. L PE 4.00
Forecast High Pr 2.45 Forecast Low Pr 1.62 Recent Severe Low Pr 1.62
Current price is at Lower 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 71% Downside 29%
One Year Appreciation Potential 6% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%

CPE/SPE 1.39 P/NTA 0.81 NTA 2.29 SPE 7.00 Rational Pr 1.34



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 1.81
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week -1.6% 13 Weeks -1.6%
4 Weeks -3.7% 52 Weeks 7.7%

Tong Herr Resources Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: TONGHER Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL Major Industry: Machinery & Equipment
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Machinery & Equipment

2009 Sales 211,554,410
(Year Ending Jan 2010).
Employees: 183
Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 230,434,720
Fiscal Yr Ends: December Shares Outstanding: 127,312,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 78,455,794


Day's Range: 1.84 - 1.88
52wk Range: 1.65 - 2.04
Volume: 50,100
Avg Vol (3m): 54,798


Prospects for the current financial year (from its quarterly report)
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Group expects its business prospects for the current financial year to remain positive.

Tuesday 16 November 2010

Tong Herr unit buys land in Thailand

Tong Herr unit buys land in Thailand
Published: 2010/11/16

TONG Herr Resources Bhd's (5010) subsidiary, Tong Heer Fasteners (Thailand) Co Ltd, has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Pinthong Industrial Park Co Ltd to acquire a piece of land measuring 120,429 sq m in Pinthong Industrial Estate, Thailand, for 173.1 million baht or RM18.1 million.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, it said the acquisition is to meet the group's plan for expansion of its manufacturing facilities.

Tong Heer Fasteners is a 50.01 per cent-owned subsidiary of Tong Herr Resources.

Incorporated in Thailand, the company's principal activity is manufacture and sale of stainless steel fasteners including bolts, screws and all other threaded items. - Bernama



Read more: Tong Herr unit buys land in Thailand http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/tongherr15/Article/#ixzz15OeL6PUF

Tuesday 2 November 2010

Tongher



Date announced 17/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK TONGHER
C0DE  5010 

Price $ 1.91
Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 12.41
Curr. DY 2.62%

Rec. qRev 63560 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 42%
Rec qPbt 10015 q-q % chg 76% y-y% chq 2529%
Rec. qEps 4.98 q-q % chg 69% y-y% chq -832%
ttm-Eps 15.39 q-q % chg 58% y-y% chq -2%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 4%
Avg.H PE 10.00
Avg. L PE 4.00

Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside -17% Downside 117%
One Year Appreciation Potential 0% Avg. yield 3% Avg.
Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years):    3%

CPE/SPE 1.77
P/NTA 0.86
NTA 2.23
SPE 7.00
Rational Pr 1.08


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed
Review (future acq) Filed
Discard Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain. Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss. Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years. Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%.
To Prevent Loss Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


How to value a cyclical stock, like Tongher?

A reasonable method is using the asset valuation method.  Tongher is trading below its NTA.

It is more challenging to use earnings to value cyclical stocks.  Tongher's earnings are affected by the business cycle of its sector.  I have averaged all the existing ttm-EPS figures that I have over the last 26 quarters and this gives an average ttm-EPS of 27.3 sen.  Before the recent global crisis, Tongher was earning about 15 sen per quarter.  It's latest quarter's EPS was 4.98 sen.

Using a conservative estimated ttm-EPS 30.0 sen and the signature PE of 7, I derive a rational value for Tongher of 2.10.  As this value will be on the low side due to the very conservative assumptions made in its derivation, at its current price of 1.91, Tongher is undervalued.


Date announced 17/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK TONGHER
C0DE  5010 

Price $ 1.91
Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 6.37
Curr. DY 2.62%

Valuation using Estimated ttm-EPS
ttm-Eps 30.00 sen

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 4%
Avg.H PE 10.00
Avg. L PE 4.00

Current price is at Lower 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 87% Downside 13%
One Year Appreciation Potential 18% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years):     24%

CPE/SPE 0.91
P/NTA 0.86
NTA 2.23
SPE 7.00
Rational Pr 2.10

Friday 9 April 2010

Warren Buffett: Distressed Assets a Great Investment



October 27, 2008 — Warren Buffett says that distressed assets are a great investment in an interview with Charlie Rose. He talks about Mortgage-Backed Securities, the government bailout. He says if you buy distressed assets at distressed prices, you will make money. He also mentions his confidence in the US economy over time, and closes with his classic quote: "You want to be greedy when others are fearful, you want to be fearful when others are greedy."

Thursday 8 April 2010

Cash Hoard – Boon Or Bane For Shareholders


EDUCATION | 16 MARCH 2010
Cash Hoard – Boon Or Bane For Shareholders

By Ernest Lim 




Imagine if you have S$100m in your bank account, what joys and problems would you face? I believe some of the joys would entail sacking your boss, living it extravagantly but problems would include the deployment of cash, as well as, fearing for your life if people are aware of your immense wealth.
If the above situation happens to companies with large cash holdings, the management would also face similar problems, especially on the issue of effective cash deployment. So for companies with a large cash hoard, is it a boon or a bane? Let’s delve into the pros and cons of maintaining a substantial cash hoard.


Advantages

Reflective of a company with strong business performance
One of the advantages is that a large cash hoard signals that the company seems to accumulate cash faster than it can deploy (assuming that the company is effectively deploying its cash but it is still accumulating).
Furthermore, it is also reflective of a good business performance as cash is derived from profitable operations.


Buffer against bad times
Cash can be used as a buffer against bad times or mistimed acquisitions. For example, during the recession in 2008/09, companies with large amounts of debt and little cash face refinancing difficulties and some even have problems paying off the loans when they are due. Ferrochina, ex Singapore listed firm in the manufacturing sector, is a case in point.
Moreover, cash serves as a safety net against unpredictable events. Companies which carry out acquisitions, joint ventures, or maiden expansions into new markets or geographies are likely to face their fair share of failures and difficulties. Some business ventures may not reach their desired results and may run into temporary losses. Cash can be used to cover the losses in such situations.


Business facilitator
Companies with cash holdings are also likely to be able to get favourable credit terms with suppliers and banks. This is apparent as suppliers and banks have to access the credit risk of the companies which they are doing business with and companies with a considerable amount of cash holdings would allay part of their credit concerns. This would aid in the business operations of the companies.


Flexibility for future growth
Cash also provides management with a myriad of options for future growth. For example, management can decide on the following options

  • Look out for attractive acquisition targets either to expand horizontally or vertically along the value chain.
  • Carry out capital expenditure such as to acquire land for future purpose, or expand their production capacity through buying more machines etc.
  • Invest in listed companies purely for investment purposes.


Disadvantages


Dearth of attractive investment opportunities
One of the most obvious reasons for a large cash hoard is that management has exhausted attractive investment opportunities at the moment and is keeping cash for future opportunities whenever that may be. This does not benefit shareholders as holding substantial cash incurs an opportunity cost and also drag down the return generated by the companies. Besides, shareholders prefer companies to return cash or carry out share buybacks if there are no attractive investment opportunities by the companies.


Lack of long term planning
Some companies may not have the practice of planning for the long term. Thus, as they do not have a concrete idea of their cash requirements over the next three to five years, they would prefer to hold cash as this provide them with flexibility. Nonetheless, it is generally non ideal to invest in companies which do not execute long term planning, as “failure to plan means planning to fail”.


Agency costs
With substantial cash in the companies’ coffers, management may be tempted to use these funds to build their own empire by spending on non synergistic acquisitions and loss making projects, so as to boost their power, reputation and prestige.


Possibility of incurring suspicion and indignation from shareholders
If the cash hoard is increasing and management does not have concrete plans on the use of such funds, this may incur the suspicion on the authenticity of actual cash owned by the companies. For example, Oriental Century, a Singapore listed firm in the education sector, has a large amount of cash in its books. However, it is subsequently revealed that its Chief Executive Officer has allegedly inflated the cash holdings.
Another company, China Hongxing, a Singapore listed firm in the sports shoe and apparel sector, has been incurring the indignation of shareholders for more than a year by sitting on a large cash hoard, amounting to RMB3b at Dec 09, up from RMB1.9b at Dec 08. The collapse in its share price from the high of S$1.45 in Oct 07 to a low of S$0.055 in Mar 09 was due in part to investors’ angst and displeasure in China Hongxing management of cash. However, China Hongxing management has recently unveiled plans on how it would be deploying its cash.




Conclusion – evaluate against the overall context

To determine whether having a large cash hoard is beneficial to shareholders, shareholders have to evaluate against the following criteria:

  • Companies’ existing and future incoming cash flows;
  • Companies existing and future cash flow requirements (i.e. outflows);
  • Stage of business cycles;
  • Existing loan and interest repayments.
Thus, if the companies have concise plans to deploy their cash, either to satisfy outstanding loan repayments, or for synergistic acquisition purposes, or for capital expenditure in view of the recovery in the business cycles, then the cash hoard is a boon as it creates shareholder value.
Conversely, if management has no concrete plans to deploy the cash or to deploy them in reckless fashion, then, the cash hoard is a bane as it destroys shareholder value.
Once again, investors have to put on their thinking hats and do some work to reach a decision on whether the cash hoard is a boon or a bane for shareholders.
Ernest Lim currently works as an assistant treasury and investment manager. Prior to this role, he was with Legacy Capital Group Pte Ltd, a boutique asset management and private equity firm, as an investment manager since 2006. He received a Bachelor of Accountancy (Honours) from Nanyang Technological University in 2005. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst, as well as, a Certified Public Accountant Singapore. He is currently taking a short break before embarking on a new role.

http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2010/03/16/cash-hoard-boon-bane-sharesholders/

Tuesday 6 April 2010

A quick look at Tongher 2009

Tong Herr Resources Berhad Company

Business Description:
Tong Herr Resources Berhad. The Group's principal activities are manufacturing and selling stainless steel fasteners. Products include nuts, bolts and screws and all other threaded items. It also operates as an investment holding company. Operations are carried out in Malaysia and Thailand. The Group distributes its products to Asia, Europe, North America and other countries.

Wright Quality Rating: LAC0

Stock Performance Chart for Tong Herr Resources Berhad



A quick look at Tongher
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tfz75IeJ7n6inThzlEPxfMg&output=html

This is a cyclical stock.  Its industry is down with the poor economy.  However, its balance sheet is strong.  It has turned in profits for the last 2 quarters.  It has cash equivalent of RM 155.331 million and this equates to cash of RM 1.22 per share.

Shares Outstanding:  127.43 million
Closely Held Shares:  77.320 million




With so many shares closely held, this company is little different from a private limited company.  No wonder it is traded at a steep discount.

Why does this company keep so much cash unproductively employed?

Monday 15 March 2010

China shipping fasteners to Europe via M’sia to avoid duty


Monday March 15, 2010

China shipping fasteners to Europe via M’sia to avoid duty

By DAVID TAN



GEORGE TOWN: Domestic mild-steel (or carbon-steel) fastener manufacturers are facing intense competition in Europe from China-made mild-steel fasteners shipped via Malaysia to avoid an anti-dumping duty imposed by the European Union (EU).
China-made fasteners have been slapped with an anti-dumping duty rate of an average 87.3% imposed by the EU since February 2009.
Chin Well Holdings Bhd senior manager Richard Yeap Soon Thong told StarBiz that since then, the selling price of Chin Well’s mild-steel fasteners in Europe had to be lowered by at least 20% to compete against China-made fasteners.
“This eats into our profit margin. Otherwise, we could have marked up our pricing by 20% to 30% per tonne. The competition from Chinese fasteners has pressured Chin Well to lower its selling price of fasteners per tonne to RM4,000 and RM5,000,” he said.
Richard Yeap Soon Thong
Some local and foreign manufacturing companies are providing re-packing services for China-made fasteners and shipping them out with their generalised system of preferences (GSP) and made-in-Malaysia certificate of origin documents which enable them to enter Europe with respective duties of 1.2% and 3.7%.
“The profit to be obtained from such re-packing and shipping services is high, about 7% of the invoice for each shipment of container, which is about US$20,000 or about RM80,000.
“In the country presently, there are only six major steel fastener producers, of which four specialises in manufacturing mild-steel fasteners, producing collectively 4,000 tonnes to 5,000 tonnes of fasteners monthly.
“Since China was hit by the anti-dumping duty from EU, Malaysia’s monthly export of fasteners to the EU has increased substantially by about four to five times.
“This is the feedback we got from our distributors and wholesalers in Europe,” Yeap said.
In 2009 Malaysia exported 99,000 tonnes of all types of fasteners, comprising screws, bolts, nuts, coach screws, screw hooks, rivets, and cotter-pins, compared to 55,000 tonnes in 2008, according to data obtained from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Miti).
“We have informed and updated Miti on the matter, lest Malaysia is also slapped with anti-dumping duty from the EU. The Miti office from Penang has recently informed us that they are working with the EU Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF), the port authorities, and the customs to check the abuse,” he added.
ED Fastening Sdn Bhd managing director T.W. Teh said as a result of of the situation, the company had suffered a sizable loss of market share in Europe.
“Our revenue for 2009, due to price competition and loss of market share in Europe, has dropped to about RM5mil, otherwise the it could easily be 50% more,” he said, adding that Europe generated about 35% of the company’s revenue.
The European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) customs unit head, David Murphy, said in an on-line news report on Feb 9 that millions of euros worth of China-made goods were being fraudulently passed off as Malaysian-made by using the Port Klang Free Zone trans-shipment hub, where imported Chinese goods were transferred to another container and re-exported using the invoice of a Malaysian company.
“Some firms also use false documents to obtain certificate of origin, which declares that the goods are of Malaysian origin. OLAF is working closely with Miti to tackle the problem that also exists at other major trans-shipment hubs such as the Jebel Ali free zone in Dubai and Singapore,” Murphy said.
He added that the real risk to Malaysia was that commercial action might be taken by the EU against Malaysian companies, thereby affecting legitimate manufacturers.
When contacted, Miti, in a statement, said the ministry was scrutinising the applications for the export of fasteners to the EU.
“All exporters were required to provide additional documentation including letter of indemnity from the exporter for non involvement in transhipment or import-export activity using GSP form A in the Free Trade and Industrial Zone.
“The ministry also carried out on-site verification visits to the fasteners’ manufacturers premises to verify their capability and capacity of producing fasteners for export market.
“We are also work closely with other Malaysian authorities such as customs, port authorities, and free zone authorities to ensure there is no transhipment of fasteners from China,” it said.
The Miti statement also noted that “in a statement dated Feb 9, OLAF said it was highly satisfied with the cooperation from Miti and other government authorities relating to the evasion of anti-dumping duties.”
Malaysian Iron and Steel Industry Federation (Misif) president, Chow Chong Long, acknowledges the occurance of such transhipment cases due to the liberalisation of trade.
“We have tried in the past to obtain the monthly figures of steel products coming in and going out of the country from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. The figures would help us detect whether there is excess of steel products being brought in and leaving the country given our present capacity and allow us to follow up with the Government to take timely and appropriate action.
Chow added that “the Government should look into ways on how it can get Misif access quickly the latest data on the export and import of steel products into Malaysia.”
“The problem is that the Department of Statistics Malaysia is always three months late with its data,” he said.
The Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers’ northern region chairman, Datuk O.K. Lee, said Malaysian manufacturers should tap into their capabilities to produce high-value added products to compete against China-made goods and not resort to providing such re-packing and transhipment services that could undermine the country’s image.

Wednesday 16 September 2009

Tong Herr to set up a RM632m JV steel billet plant in Vietnam

Tong Herr to set up a RM632m JV steel billet plant in Vietnam




Written by Financial Daily

Tuesday, 25 August 2009 10:21



KUALA LUMPUR: TONG HERR RESOURCES BHD [] is teaming up with four individuals of a Taiwanese family to set up a steel billet manufacturing plant in Vietnam with an investment cost of US$180 million (RM631.8 million).



Tong Herr said yesterday it had entered into a shareholders’ agreement with Tsai Ching-Tung, Tsai Min Ti, Tsai Hung-Chuan and Tsai Yi Ting for the proposed joint venture (JV) in Fuco International Ltd.



The parties had earlier agreed to cooperate in the establishment of the steel billet manufacturing business in Vietnam through Fuco Steel Corporation Ltd.



It said Fuco Steel was granted an investment approval on April 2, 2007 by the BaRia VungTau Industrial Zone Authority to produce steel billets in Vietnam.



Subsequently, Fuco Steel had on March 18, 2008 entered into a land sub-leasing contract, amended on April 20, 2009, with the Ministry of CONSTRUCTION [], Vietnam Urban and Industrial Zone Development Investment Corporation to sublease a land measuring about 304,067 square metres at Phu My II Industrial Zone, Tan Thanh District, BaRia VungTau Province for the proposed plant. The duration of the land sublease is until June 29, 2055.



Fuco International’s current shareholders are the Tsai family members. Pursuant to the agreement, Tong Herr would subscribe for a 37.04% stake comprising 18,518 shares for a total of US$19.99 million cash.



Tong Herr said the JV parties would make a total cash investment of US$54 million via the subscription of new shares of US$1,080 each in Fuco International, which in turn will be injected into Fuco Steel, while Tong Hwei Investment Ltd will invest US$6 million cash in Fuco Steel.



It said the balance of US$120 million would be financed by Fuco Steel via borrowings from financial institutions.



Fuco International will have a 90% stake in Fuco Steel, while Tong Hwei will hold the balance 10%. Tong Herr expects the plant to be operational by 2011.



Tong Herr said it would finance its obligations of US$19.99 million from internal funds.



It said the proposed JV was consistent with its objective of seeking various strategic alliances and joint venture for synergistic benefits to enable it to expand into the steel billet manufacturing industry and enter into new overseas market.



“The proposed JV also represents a good opportunity for the group to further expand its revenue in terms of going upstream in the steel industry and hence, to further broaden its earnings base,” it said.



Tong Herr said the investment certificate offered tax incentives such as corporate income tax exemption for the first four years. Fuco Steel was liable to pay corporate income tax, an annual corporate income tax of 5%, instead 10%, for the following nine years, representing a 50% discount from the annual corporate income tax of 10%, tax of 10% for the following two years and 28% annual corporate income tax for the following years as well as other investment incentives.





This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 25, 2009.