myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Wednesday 16 September 2009

Tong Herr to set up a RM632m JV steel billet plant in Vietnam

Tong Herr to set up a RM632m JV steel billet plant in Vietnam

Written by Financial Daily

Tuesday, 25 August 2009 10:21

KUALA LUMPUR: TONG HERR RESOURCES BHD [] is teaming up with four individuals of a Taiwanese family to set up a steel billet manufacturing plant in Vietnam with an investment cost of US$180 million (RM631.8 million).

Tong Herr said yesterday it had entered into a shareholders’ agreement with Tsai Ching-Tung, Tsai Min Ti, Tsai Hung-Chuan and Tsai Yi Ting for the proposed joint venture (JV) in Fuco International Ltd.

The parties had earlier agreed to cooperate in the establishment of the steel billet manufacturing business in Vietnam through Fuco Steel Corporation Ltd.

It said Fuco Steel was granted an investment approval on April 2, 2007 by the BaRia VungTau Industrial Zone Authority to produce steel billets in Vietnam.

Subsequently, Fuco Steel had on March 18, 2008 entered into a land sub-leasing contract, amended on April 20, 2009, with the Ministry of CONSTRUCTION [], Vietnam Urban and Industrial Zone Development Investment Corporation to sublease a land measuring about 304,067 square metres at Phu My II Industrial Zone, Tan Thanh District, BaRia VungTau Province for the proposed plant. The duration of the land sublease is until June 29, 2055.

Fuco International’s current shareholders are the Tsai family members. Pursuant to the agreement, Tong Herr would subscribe for a 37.04% stake comprising 18,518 shares for a total of US$19.99 million cash.

Tong Herr said the JV parties would make a total cash investment of US$54 million via the subscription of new shares of US$1,080 each in Fuco International, which in turn will be injected into Fuco Steel, while Tong Hwei Investment Ltd will invest US$6 million cash in Fuco Steel.

It said the balance of US$120 million would be financed by Fuco Steel via borrowings from financial institutions.

Fuco International will have a 90% stake in Fuco Steel, while Tong Hwei will hold the balance 10%. Tong Herr expects the plant to be operational by 2011.

Tong Herr said it would finance its obligations of US$19.99 million from internal funds.

It said the proposed JV was consistent with its objective of seeking various strategic alliances and joint venture for synergistic benefits to enable it to expand into the steel billet manufacturing industry and enter into new overseas market.

“The proposed JV also represents a good opportunity for the group to further expand its revenue in terms of going upstream in the steel industry and hence, to further broaden its earnings base,” it said.

Tong Herr said the investment certificate offered tax incentives such as corporate income tax exemption for the first four years. Fuco Steel was liable to pay corporate income tax, an annual corporate income tax of 5%, instead 10%, for the following nine years, representing a 50% discount from the annual corporate income tax of 10%, tax of 10% for the following two years and 28% annual corporate income tax for the following years as well as other investment incentives.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 25, 2009.

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Wednesday 16 September 2009

Tong Herr to set up a RM632m JV steel billet plant in Vietnam

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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