myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Showing posts with label video. Show all posts

Saturday 24 September 2011

How Bad Is It?

Aug-26-2011

How Bad Is It?

After several weeks of severe market decline, we analyze how this downward volatility compares historically with other market drops.

Friday 23 September 2011

Your Portfolio Sucks (video)

http://www.matsonmoneylive.com/?p=3198

Your Portfolio Sucks

Based on the analysis of thousands of actual investor portfolios, we look at what actual investors are doing to sabotage their own portfolios.

(Episode 113, Part 2)

Wednesday 21 September 2011

Making Money On Line

http://store.workathometruth.com/must-watch-video.php?tid=bfmain

Video

Watch This Special Presentation & Learn How You Can Get Started Today!

Thursday 1 September 2011

Peter Lynch on Stock Market

A lot of good advice on these topics:

Upsides of a downmarket.
Historical market rebounds.
Timing the market is not a Winning Strategy.
Why it's important to stay the course.
Don't listen to background noise.
Know your Time Horizon, stay invested.
Benefit of Regular Investing for Retirement.
Portfolio Diversification
Be comfortable with what you own.
How can Fidelity financial planning help you?

Nature of the Stock Market
Market went down 1% per month and 2% per month regularly in the past.
Once in 2 years, market went down 10% per month.
Every 18 months, some market somewhere was down 10% per month.
Once every 5 or 6 years, the stock market declined 20% to 25% per month.

Historical market rebounds
Over the last 15 years, there were 13 months when the market went down 8% or more.
Of these, 11x out of these 13, the market was higher subsequently.

Stay fully invested. Know your time horizon.
The market went down 10 to 12 x, I went down 10 to 12 x.
When market went up I went up.
The upside is more than the downside.
Need to know your own time horizon.

Timing the market is not a winning strategy
All the wealthy people in the world are not market timers.
You might be right to miss some declines.
However, market turned up very fast.
Over the last 15 years, missing the best 15 months (that is 1 month per year) ..
.. meant a fall of portfolio return from 11% to 3%.

Portfolio Diversification
As long as it makes sense.

Tuesday 29 March 2011

Understanding Risk And Time Horizon (video)

Now Playing

Understanding Risk And Time Horizon

The interaction between your risks and your time horizon influ...

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/risk-and-time-horizon

The interaction between your risks and your time horizon influences every investment decision you make, whether you know it or not. Learn the basics here. Read: Redefining Investor Risk

Saturday 15 January 2011

How the Stock Market Works

Saturday 6 November 2010

Gold and Silver Prices Signal the Destruction of the Dollar (video)

Tuesday 14 September 2010

Professor Aswath Damodaran teaches Valuation.

Course Description

NYU's Stern Business School Professor Aswath Damodaran teaches Valuation.

Course Index

Tuesday 17 August 2010

Warren Buffett Golden Rules of Financial Planning.

Sunday 15 August 2010

An exclusive conversation with the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett

Charlie Rose - Warren Buffett

54:48 - 1 year ago

Warren Buffett on Charlie Rosehttp://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=515260011274566220&hl=en&emb=1#docid=4537231419795681197

Charlie Rose - Warren Buffett

56:40 - 3 years ago

An exclusive conversation with the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffetthttp://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4116868880636414751&hl=en&emb=1#

Warren Buffett Talks Business

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=79141131942029098&hl=en&emb=1#

Warren Buffett Talks Business

56:03 - 2 years ago

Amazing video of the Oracle of Omaha

Saturday 14 August 2010

MBA - Managerial Economics

MBA - Managerial Economics 01

54:37 - 1 year ago

MBA Course in Managerial Economics at Prince Sultan University. Lecture 1 covers introductory overview to economics - choice, economic decisions, scarcity, trade-offs, opprtunity cost, marginal analysis, efficiency, resources, utility, modeling.http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3236390700554076825#docid=-408690692811744650

MBA - Managerial Economics 02

30:40 - 1 year ago

Lecture 2 of MBA course in Managerial Economics at Prince Sultan University. Discusses some fallacies and myths on global issues related to the U.S dollar, US economy, gold, oil, and other important and current global economic issueshttp://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3712587726439038583#

MBA - Managerial Economics 03

02:31 - 1 year ago

Lecture 3 from an MBA course in Managerial Economics.http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3712587726439038583#docid=-3524750524862699535

MBA - Managerial Economics 04

33:06 - 1 year ago

Covers the first half of the first chapter of the textbook "Managerial Economics" by Maurice & Thomas.http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3712587726439038583#docid=8361401330998686750

MBA - Managerial Economics 22

1:11:56 - 1 year ago

Long run cost and production. Isoquant curves. Marginal rate of technical substitution. Isocost curves. Optimal combination of inputs. Cost optimization. Expansion path. Returns to scale; economies of scale; economies of scope.http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3712587726439038583#docid=6029229602533143315

Thursday 12 August 2010

Investment In Gold Seminar by Krassimir Petrov

Krassimir Petrov - Investment Analysis (part 1)

29:14 - 2 years ago

Tavex Investment Gold Seminar in Stockholm April 9, 2008http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3236390700554076825#docid=-4020393826410739752

Krassimir Petrov - Investment Analysis (part 2)

28:52 - 2 years ago

Tavex Investment Gold Seminar in Stockholm April 9, 2008http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3227070987190450403#

Krassimir Petrov - Investment Analysis (part 3)

32:33 - 2 years ago

Tavex Investment Gold Seminar in Stockholm April 9, 2008http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=976700141486118374#

Krassimir Petrov - Investment Analysis (part 4)

13:30 - 2 years ago

Tavex Investment Gold Seminar in Stockholm April 9, 2008http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1383332369012611726#

21 Evils of Inflation (Video)

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6484061137769305763&hl=en&emb=1#

21 Evils of Inflation - Prof. Krassimir Petrov

59:42 - 3 years ago

A 60 minute lecture by Prof. Krassimir Petrov at the American University in Bulgaria explaining 21 negative effects from inflation.

Wednesday 11 August 2010

Introductory Lecture to The Investment Process

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8694846935046925487&hl=en&emb=1#docid=6890486866020900949

Diversification, risk, asset classes, asset allocation, active and passive investment strategies, primary and secondary markets.

Bullbear Stock Investing Notes

Tuesday 10 August 2010

Introductory Lectures to Business Cycles

Business Cycles, Part 0 of 4- Interest and Capital,
Prof. Krassimir Petrov

1:02:36 - 3 years ago

The theory of Interest, Production, and Capital is the foundation for understanding Economic Growth and Business Cycles.http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6484061137769305763&hl=en&emb=1#docid=-5669706349089810530

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3236390700554076825#docid=2786446863132957274

Business Cycles, Part 1 of 4 - Introduction,
Prof. Krassimir Petrov

1:06:14 - 3 years ago

An introductory 65 min lecture describing the nature of business cycles. Explains business fluctuations, phases, periodicity, comovement, persistence, amplitude, cyclicality, and introduces major business cycle theories.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8415267688491832655#

Business Cycles, Part 2 of 4 - Business Cycle Indicators, Prof. Krassimir Petrov

1:02:32 - 3 years ago

The lecture explains the behavior of 18 different procyclical leading or lagging macroeconomic variables/indicators throughout the business cycle.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5546452117626581217#
Business Cycles, Part 3 of 4 - The Austrian Boom,

Prof. Krassimir Petrov

1:12:14 - 3 years ago

Explaining the Boom - what happens and why; characteristics of booms; why booms cannot last forever; why they inevitably turn to bust. The next part,part 4 is devoted to the "Bust".

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2382683217626362775&hl=en&emb=1#

BusinessCycles, Part 4 of 4 - The Austrian Bust, Prof. Krassimir Petrov

1:06:20 - 3 years ago

Crisis, Bust, Deflationary Depression, Stagflation, and other fundamental Austrian School concepts.

Introductory Lectures to Technical Analysis

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6926061697255437758&hl=en&emb=1#docid=3236390700554076825
Investment Analysis, Lecture 01 - The Essentials of Investments

Introductory lecture covering Chapter 1 from the Bodie, Kane, Marcus "Essentials of Investments". The course will continue with Technical Analysis in next 4-5 lectures.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6926061697255437758&hl=en&emb=1#docid=3522828464732950634
Investment Analysis, Lecture 02 - Technical Analysis, Introduction

Introduces important concepts in technical analysis necessary to understand and read charts.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6926061697255437758&hl=en&emb=1#docid=2468906696139555918
Investment Analysis, Lecture 03 - Technical Analysis

Continues the discussion of basic concepts in technical analysis and proceeds with various charts and chart formations.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8845215362536133716#
Investment Analysis, Lecture 04 - Technical Analysis

Provides many real-world examples of applying technical analysis with proper interpretations.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8845215362536133716#docid=3573708715720331479
Investment Analysis, Lecture 05

Continues with real world examples of technical analysis.

Investment Analysis, Lecture 06 - Technical Analysis cont.

1:00:48 - 2 years ago

Continued with practical interpretations of charts.http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2688538007524052761#

Introductory Lecture on Real Estate Finance

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6594160744367916447&hl=en&emb=1#

Krassimir Petrov

Introductory Lecture to Portfolio Theory

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8694846935046925487&hl=en&emb=1#docid=4234873094754328164
Investments - Lecture 01 - Portfolio Theory 01

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5661465017176597915&hl=en&emb=1#docid=8694846935046925487
Investments - Portfolio Theory 02

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5661465017176597915&hl=en&emb=1#
Investments - Portfolio Theory 03

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5661465017176597915&hl=en&emb=1#docid=5497259751608833266
Investments - Portfolio Theory 04

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5661465017176597915&hl=en&emb=1#docid=6247815643869225195
Investments - Portfolio Theory 05

Investments - Portfolio Theory 06

53:18 - 1 year ago

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Part 2.http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6988926808213550755#

Investments - Portfolio Theory 07

1:04:18 - 1 year ago

Efficiency, efficient markets, the efficiency hypothesis, random walk, implications of market efficiency.http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6988926808213550755#docid=-9063491810101872769

Introductory Lecture to Fundamental Analysis

Investments - Fundamental Analysis, Lecture 1 - Introduction

1:08:47 - 1 year ago

Introduces the role of fundamental analysis in investing; explains concepts such as fundamentals and valuation; and begins to develop basic concepts from macro-investment analysis.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3236390700554076825#docid=1129162666296607058

Investments - Fundamental Analysis - Lecture 2 - Interest Rates

1:02:21 - 1 year ago

The role of interest rates in fundamental analysis. The fundamental determinants of interest rates; liquidity effect; Fisher effect.http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1340565254021002003#

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?