Guinness Anchor Malaysia Q4 profit jumps 30%. Company’s full year pre-tax profit crosses RM200mil for the first time

Guinness
4.8.2010

At the price of 8.10, this counter is trading at a ttm-PE of 16.95 with a DY of 5.06%.

Historical 5 Yr Data
EPSGR 7.6%
DPSGR 6.2%
PE range 12.3 to 15.6
DY range 6.9% to 5.4%

Its present ttm-PE is at the high end of its historical PE range.
Its DY is at the lower end of its historical DY range.



Recent Stock Performance:

1 Week	4.4%		13 Weeks	5.4%
4 Weeks	18.0%		52 Weeks	31.1%

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Thursday August 5, 2010

Guinness Anchor Q4 profit jumps 30%

By Leong Hung Yee hungyee@thestar.com.my

Company’s full year pre-tax profit crosses RM200mil for the first time

PETALING JAYA: Guinness Anchor Bhd’s (GAB) net profit jumped 30.2% to RM35.7mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30, from RM27.4mil a year ago, boosted by higher sales during the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

Its revenue for the quarter was 11.7% higher at RM308.7mil from RM276.3mil a year ago.

It reported earnings per share of 11.81 sen versus 9.07 sen a year ago.

The brewery also proposed a final dividend of 35 sen per 50 sen stock unit for the quarter.

For the full year, GAB’s net profit was higher at RM152.7mil, or 50.54 sen per share, on revenue of RM1.36bil.

Managing director Charles Ireland said the better performance marked the brewery’s ninth consecutive year of growth.

“Our pre-tax profit hit a record of RM205mil.

“This was the first time we crossed the RM200mil mark,” he said in a briefing to announce its latest quarterly results.

Ireland said the group had also managed to increase its market share in the malt liquor market to close to 60% from a low 40% nine years ago.

To a question, he said market share was less important to the group now.

He said the group’s various promotional campaigns such as Year of Tiger, Arthur’s Day, St Patrick’s Day and the recent World Cup viewing parties had paid off.

“We have been delighted with the performance of Tiger Beer especially in the last six months,” he said.

He added that GAB would be introducing more brands locally over the next six months, but did not elaborate.

Going forward, Ireland expects its current financial year ending June 30, 2011 (FY11) to be “another good year” for GAB.

“The year has started very well for us,” he said.

Ireland said one of the challenges for the current year was to sustain its performance to yet another record year.

The GAB chief said the group had allocated RM50mil for capital expenditure for FY11 in order to produce the highest quality beer.

He added that GAB would invest some RM3mil in a bottle inspection system to make sure its bottles were not chipped, among other concerns.

“We are also investing in crates, drafts and bottles to meet the growing demand,” he said.

Ireland is also hoping that the Government would not increase excise duties in the upcoming Budget 2011.

“We are hopeful that the Government will not increase the tax as Malaysia has the second highest excise tax in the world after Norway on alcoholic products,” he said.

Ireland said a higher tax would not necessarily increase revenue collection for the government as it could instead prompt smuggling activities.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/8/5/business/6800187&sec=business

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AmResearch downgrades Guinness Anchor to Hold
Written by AmResearch
Thursday, 05 August 2010 08:55


KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch is downgrading GUINNESS ANCHOR BHD [] (GAB) to HOLD.

It said on Thursday, Aug 5 that despite the group’s still positive earnings prospects, its higher fair value of RM8.62/share (at parity to DCF-estimates) offered limited upside potential (<15%) and valuation is no longer attractive.

GAB’s earnings for the 12 months ended 30 June was up a decent 8% YoY to RM153mil, meeting AmResearch’s full-year forecast as well as consensus estimates.

Year-to-date, GAB maintained its leadership position with 57% market share, and circa 70% of industry profit pool.

“In view of GAB’s proven track record in maintaining its leadership position with 57% market share in the duopoly industry, we have removed the 10% discount to our DCF-based valuation model.

“Consequently, we arrive at our higher fair value of RM8.62/share (previously RM7.50/share) based at parity to our DCF-estimates,” it said.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/171219-amresearch-downgrades-guinness-anchor-to-hold.html

What is the PEG Ratio and How is it Calculated?

 The PEG or “Price/Earnings to Growth” ratio is a measure used to value a stock based on the trade-off between the P/E ratio of the stock and the company’s forecasted growth. Made popular by Peter Lynch in his book “One Up on Wall Street”, the PEG ratio is closely tracked by many investors to help determine whether a stock is currently over or under priced when factoring for growth expectations of the company.

The formula for the PEG ratio can be written as:

PEG Ratio = (Price/Earnings) / Annual Earnings per Share Growth

	Stock Research Pro
	PEG Ratio
	P/E Ratio
	Earnings Growth
	PEG Ratio

A PEG ratio equal to one is thought to represent a fairly valued stock. For example, a company with a P/E ratio of 20 with a growth rate of 20% would have a PEG of 1. Like the P/E ratio, stocks with lower PEG ratios are seen as offering better value and a PEG ratio of less than 1 can indicate that the stock is currently undervalued. Value investors in particular may look for this attribute when choosing stocks for investment.

The PEG ratio is typically most beneficial when considering small and mid-cap growth companies as these organizations are more likely to pour their earnings back into the company to stimulate continued growth. Large-cap companies often allocate these earnings to dividend payments.

__________________________

http://www.stockresearchpro.com/what-is-the-peg-ratio-and-how-is-it-calculated

Fraser & Neave Malaysia

F&N
4.8.2010
At closing price of 14.40, its ttm-PE was 18.14 and its DY was 2.99%

Historical 5 Yr Data
EPS GR 15.9%
DPS GR 14.4%
PE range 13.9 to 18.0
DY range 5.3% to 3.9%

At present price, F&N is trading at:

• a ttm-PE that is in the upper end of its historical PE range, and
• a DY that is at the lower end of its historical DY range.

Recent Stock Performance:

1 Week	-4.1%		13 Weeks	13.6%
4 Weeks	33.4%		52 Weeks	52.2%

Its PEG ratio = 18.14/15.9 = 1.14.

ROE (2009) = 17.36%

Graham Intrinsic Value video tutorial

Using the Stock Research Pro Software to Calculate Intrsinsic Value Using the Benjamin Graham Formula

Stock Research Pro is a desktop software application designed to guide and streamline the stock research, analysis, and valuation process. The software includes an automated calculator to arrive at a stock’s intrinsic value using the Benjamin Graham formula.

Click here to launch the Graham intrinsic value video tutorial.

http://stockresearchpro.com/graham2

http://www.stockresearchpro.com/benjamin-graham-intrinsic-value-calculator

Public Bank Berhad

PBB
3.8.2010

At a price of 12.00, its ttm-PE was 15.32 and DY was 4.14

5 Yr Historical Data
EPS GR 14.7%
DPS GR -1.3%
PE range 11.6 to 16.1
DY range 6.0% to 4.3%

Its present ttm-PE is at the higher region of its historical PE range.
Its DY is at the lower end of its historical DY range.



Recent Stock Performance:

1 Week	0.0%		13 Weeks	2.4%
4 Weeks	1.3%		52 Weeks	21.0%

At present PE, there seems to be little room for PE expansion for PBB in the short term.  However, PBB has and hopefully, will continue to deliver on its EPS.

Latexx: Another GARP stock

Latexx
3.8.2010
Price 3.550
ttm-PE 11.05
DY 0.99

Historical 1 Year Data
EPS GR +++ High
PE range 7.7 to 12.4
DY range 1.3 to 0.8

5 Yr EPS GR Not Meaningful
5 Yr DPS GR Not Meaningful
This company turned profitable 2005-2006.

Its present PE is just above the mid-range of its this year's PE range.
Its DY is at the lower part of this year's DY range.



Recent Price Performance

1 Week	-1.1%		13 Weeks	3.2%
4 Weeks	-6.5%		52 Weeks	88.5%

Players in the Glove Sector
Adventa
ttm-PE 16.69 DY 2.36
Hartalega 
ttm-PE 13.87 DY 2.32
Kossan 
ttm-PE 15.06 DY 1.15
Riverstone (Singapore)
ttm-PE 11.13 DY 3.02
Rubberex 
ttm-PE 2.58 DY 2.88
Supermax
ttm-PE 17.74 DY 0.85
Topglove
ttm-PE 15.42 DY 1.73

How sustainable are the earnings in this sector going forward?

Dutch Lady

Dutch Lady
3.8.2010
Share Price 14.68
ttm-PE 12.96
DY 1.45%

5 Year Historical Data
EPS GR 28.8%
DPS GR 3.2%
PE Range 11.2 to 17.0
DY Range 7.0% to 4.6%

Its present PE is at the lower third of its historical PE range.
Its DY is at the low end of its historical DY range.



Recent Stock Performance

1 Week	-0.8%		13 Weeks	12.2%
4 Weeks	21.1%		52 Weeks	28.9%

Cyclical Versus Non-Cyclical Stocks

Charting a Cyclical vs. Non-Cyclical Company 
Below is a chart showing the performance of a highly cyclical company, the Ford Motor Co. (blue line), and a classic non-cyclical company, Florida Public Utilities Co. (red line). This chart clearly demonstrates how each company's share price reacts to downturns in the economy. 



Notice that the downturn in the economy from 2000 to 2002 drastically reduced Ford's share price, whereas the growth of Florida Public Utilities' share price hardly batted an eye at the slowdown. 


http://www.investopedia.com/articles/00/082800.asp

Know this chart and you will understand the challenge of investing into cyclical stocks.

Investors cannot control the cycles of the economy, but they can adjust their investing practices with its ebbs and flows. Adjusting to economic transitions requires an understanding of how industries are characterized by their relationship to the economy. It's important for you to know the fundamental difference between cyclical and non-cyclical companies so that you can distinguish between sectors that are affected by economic changes and those that are more immune. 

Petdag - a GARP investment

At the closing price of 9.90, PetDag was trading at ttm-PE of 13.06 and DY of 4.55%

Historical Data of last 5 Years
EPS GR 24.9%
DPS GR 38%
DY range 4.7% to 3.4%
PE range 9.4 to 12.9

At the present price, it is trading at
PE closer to the upper part of its historical PE range
DY closer to the upper part of its historical DY range



Recent Stock Performance:

1 Week	5.8%		13 Weeks	10.5%
4 Weeks	13.6%		52 Weeks	20.2%

Will the EPS of PetDag for this year be higher than the previous year?

Nestle Malaysia

Nestle
3.8.2010

Price 38.80
ttm-PE 23.32
DY 3.87%

Historical Data
Last 5 Years
EPS GR 9.8%
DPS GR 11.6%
PE Range 18.8 to 23.4
Average DY Range 5.1% to 4.1%

Its present PE is in the higher limit of its historical PE range.
The DY is at the lower side of its historical DY range.



Recent Stock Performance

1 Week	4.9%		13 Weeks	11.3%
4 Weeks	10.5%		52 Weeks	21.3%

Estimate the EPS for next year.
What will be the future PE of Nestle based on this estimated EPS?

Property stocks

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/proper02/Article/index_html

How to grow rich stealing super cash

How to grow rich stealing super cash
August 2, 2010

I propose a new push to educate industrious individuals looking at money-making opportunities in the $1.3 trillion Australian superannuation industry. I'm writing, of course, about organised criminals.

Given the rich range of opportunities available to rip-off superannuation money, I think it only fair the Australian Securities and Investments Commission provide a level playing field for the ne'er-do-wells by fully disclosing the loopholes.

Through a program of financial education, the commission can give these individuals what they want and indeed deserve from the current settings - a free ride with your superannuation cash.

As a handy guide for the commission, I propose any education program cover the following areas:

FINANCIAL SERVICES LICENCES

Criminal background? Dodgy past? Ownership of a financial services licensee is no problem.

How so? The commission does not apply a good-fame-and-character test to the owner of a company granted a financial services licence, but applies it to the directors.

BusinessDay exposed just such a situation this year when it reported on Jeffrey Revell-Reade who owned OzGroup, involved in managing super worth $600 million. Revell-Reade had been repeatedly named in relation to international penny stock scams.

All a person with a dubious past need do is own a company, appoint relatively clean-skin directors with some financial experience, and away you go - a financial services licence to play with.

Incidentally, even if the owner directly controls the financial services licensee, the commission doesn't say boo publicly. For example, companies controlled by a Hong Kong businessman Jack Flader, a central figure in the disappearance of $123 million in Trio Capital money, appointed two new directors to his financial planning business in June. The commission said this was not a problem.

PRODUCT DISCLOSURE STATEMENTS

If you are of a certain inclination you definitely do not want to tell investors exactly what you plan to do with their money.

Fortunately, the commission has, in my view, a track record of letting through misleading material that can be used to garner funds.

In the case of Trio Capital, the product disclosure statements for Astarra Strategic were revealed to be meaningless to the point of laughable.

In evidence to a liquidator's examination, the 24 years of investment experience referred to in Astarra Strategic's disclosure statement consisted of Shawn Richard, who described his qualifications as an office boy, and his less talented companion, Eugene Liu.

And away you go, harvesting $123 million in investments sent to an overseas company without another word.

Astarra is not an isolated case. I am aware of another product disclosure statement out there that does not name the investment manager.

Where is the money going? Who is placing it? The investor doesn't know. Neither does the commission. Pretty handy, hey?

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

Fortunately for the criminally-minded, there are few legal obligations that effectively pick up conflicts of interest for those running superannuation funds.

Those patient enough can winkle their way into controlling all three elements within a superannuation fund: the administrator, the trustee and the investment manager.

In Trio Capital, all three became owned by the same enterprise, so the cash could be directed offshore without question.

Interestingly, large investment managers, such as AMP and Westpac, use exactly the same system.

Current practice means Bear Stearns could have set up in Australia in 2007 the You Beaut All You Can Eat CDO Superannuation Fund.

So this isn't just an education program for criminals; big corporations that act irresponsibly can get a leg up with this particular loophole.

FINANCIAL PLANNERS

Of course, your criminal enterprise needs a distribution network. And who better than a group of salespeople handsomely rewarded for selling your product?

Current settings allow all kinds of secret commissions to financial planning networks.

With Trio Capital, an $840,000 secret commission was paid by the investment manager to the Wollongong financial planner Tarrants that it happily called a "marketing allowance". These kinds of payments are due to be banned under the Bowen reforms. Fortunately for crims, there are still opportunities to use financial planners for their own ends. This rests in the ease with which planners and entire businesses can become "authorised representatives" of a financial services licensee.

The commission has no say about these "authorised representatives".

It does not check their credentials in any way. Instead it relies on financial services licensees to check the competence and integrity of their authorised reps.

Ahem. See point one.

BREAK THE LAW

Put a bit of spit and polish on the curriculum vitae. Even tell a few lies in your Australian Financial Services Licence application; the commission doesn't appear to look too hard.

And there you have it. Put in place the above steps and grab the money.

There is a lot of superannuation money. It has attracted a lot of interest of the wrong sort.

By rights the commission should be acting to fix these problems.

But until that time, the crims are free to use all the pointers outlined above.

In fact, they already have.

Source: The Sydney Morning Herald

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/how-to-grow-rich-stealing-super-cash-20100801-111ir.html