myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Thursday, 30 August 2012

Crescendo - Return on Retained Earnings

Crescendo

Year		DPS		EPS	Retained EPS
2002		3.6		11.7	8.1
2003		3.6		10.8	7.2
2004		4.7		9.7	5
2005		5		11.3	6.3
2006		5.1		12.5	7.4
2007		5.2		9.6	4.4
2008		6		14.5	8.5
2009		5.5		20.2	14.7
2010		6		11.6	5.6
2011		8.3		21.1	12.8
2012					0

Total		53		133	80


From	2002	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				9.4
DPO				40%
Return on retained earnings				12%

(Figures are in sens)

Maybulk - Return on Retained Earnings

Maybulk

Year		DPS		EPS		Retained EPS
2002
2003		3.6		10.8		7.2
2004		5.6		26.3		20.7
2005		9.6		63.2		53.6
2006		13.6		26.8		13.2
2007		32		52.1		20.1
2008		38.1		54.7		16.6
2009		30		19.6		-10.4
2010		15		23.8		8.8
2011		10		10.7	P	0.7
2012

Total		157.5		288		130.5


From	2003	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				-0.1
DPO				55%
Return on retained earnings				0%

(Figures are in sens)

AirAsia - Return on Retained Earnings

AirAsia

Year		DPS		EPS		Retained EPS
2002
2003		0		2.1		2.1
2004		0		4.8		4.8
2005		0		8.6		8.6
2006		0		21.1		21.1
2007		0		24.6		24.6
2008		0		-11.3		-11.3
2009		0		15.1		15.1
2010		0		15.8		15.8
2011		2.3		27.1	P	24.8
2012

Total		2.3		107.9		105.6


From	2003	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				25.0
DPO				2%
Return on retained earnings				24%

(Figures are in sens)

Malaysia Airline System (MAS) - Return on Retained Earnings

MAS

Year		DPS		EPS		Retained EPS
2002		0		-2.9		-2.9
2003		1.9		18.9		17
2004		1.9		18.2		16.3
2005		1.9		-101		-102.9
2006		0		-17.7		-17.7
2007		0		26.1		26.1
2008		2.1		16.3		14.2
2009		0		25.2		25.2
2010		0		5.2		5.2
2011		0		-79.7	P	-79.7
2012

Total		7.8		-91.4		-99.2


From	2002	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				-76.8
DPO				-9%
Return on retained earnings				77%

(Figures are in sens)

Analabs - Return on Retained Earnings

Analabs

Year		DPS		EPS	Retained EPS
2002		2.7		16	13.3
2003		1		2.9	1.9
2004		1		5.5	4.5
2005		0		7.2	7.2
2006		1.3		4.5	3.2
2007		2		10.9	8.9
2008		3.3		16.1	12.8
2009		3.4		16.6	13.2
2010		3.8		25.3	21.5
2011		3.8		29.1	25.3
2012

Total		22.3		134.1	111.8


From	2002	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				13.1
DPO				17%
Return on retained earnings				12%

(Figures are in sens)

Insas - Return on Retained Earnings

Insas

Year		DPS		EPS	Retained EPS
2002		0		-1.6	-1.6
2003		0		-2.2	-2.2
2004		0		1.1	1.1
2005		0		2.8	2.8
2006		0		2.3	2.3
2007		0		7.1	7.1
2008		0		3.9	3.9
2009		0		0.4	0.4
2010		0		7	7
2011		0		9.8	9.8
2012

Total		0		30.6	30.6


From	2002	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				11.4
DPO				0%
Return on retained earnings				37%

(Figures are in sens)

Hong Leong Bank - Return on Retained Earnings

Hong Leong Bank

Year		DPS		EPS	Retained EPS
2002		7.6		33.9	26.3
2003		27.3		39.2	11.9
2004		16.7		23.3	6.6
2005		16.7		31.7	15
2006		16.7		33.6	16.9
2007		17.1		41.3	24.2
2008		17.3		49.4	32.1
2009		17.4		60.3	42.9
2010		17.4		65.7	48.3
2011		18		73.1	55.1
2012

Total		172.2		451.5	279.3


From	2002	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				39.2
DPO				38%
Return on retained earnings				14%

(Figures are in sens)

Guan Chong - Return on Retained Earnings

Guan Chong

Year		DPS		EPS	Retained EPS
2002
2003
2004
2005		2.3		5.1	2.8
2006		2.8		5.2	2.4
2007		2.3		4.2	1.9
2008		0.7		2.1	1.4
2009		2		4.2	2.2
2010		5.4		28.7	23.3
2011		12.3		36.68	24.38
2012

Total		27.8		86.18	58.38


From	2005	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				31.6
DPO				32%
Return on retained earnings				54%

(Figures are in sens)

Petron (ESSO) - Return on Retained Earnings

Petron (ESSO)

Year		DPS		EPS	Retained EPS
2002		7.2		-3.2	-10.4
2003		7.2		21.1	13.9
2004		8.6		-9	-17.6
2005		8.6		7.3	-1.3
2006		8.6		2.6	-6
2007		8.8		21.2	12.4
2008		8.9		-93.1	-102
2009		9		53.9	44.9
2010		9		99.5	90.5
2011		10.5		56.8	46.3
2012

Total		86.4		157.1	70.7

From	2008	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				60.0
DPO				55%
Return on retained earnings				85%

(Figures are in sens)

Hartalega - Return on Retained Earnings

Hartalega

Year		DPS		EPS	Retained EPS
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008		3.3		9.8	6.5
2009		8		21.5	13.5
2010		13.3		40.2	26.9
2011		21		52.3	31.3
2012		18		55.37	37.37

Total		63.6		179.17	115.57

From	2008	to	2012
EPS increase (sen)				45.6
DPO				35%
Return on retained earnings				39%

(Figures are in sens)

Tenaga - Return on Retained Earnings

Tenaga

Year	DPS		EPS		Retained EPS
2002	4.7		22		17.3
2003	5.5		21.6		16.1
2004	8.4		28.2		19.8
2005	7.4		22.6		15.2
2006	8.5		34.9		26.4
2007	21.2		66		44.8
2008	11.9		47.2		35.3
2009	10.6		39.8		29.2
2010	12.5		46.8		34.3
2011	3.4		12.7		9.3
2012	10	E	60	E	50
Total	104.1		401.8		297.7

From 2002 to 2012
EPS increase (sen)			38.0
DPO			26%
Return on retained earnings			13%

(Figures are in sens)

TM (Telekom Malaysia) - Return on Retained Earnings

TM (Telekom Malaysia)

Year		DPS		EPS	Retained EPS
2002		2.4		5.8	3.4
2003		1.6		9.4	7.8
2004		5.4		7	1.6
2005		6.6		3	-3.6
2006		6.5		11.4	4.9
2007		9		12.8	3.8
2008		10.6		5.2	-5.4
2009		16.6		15.8	-0.8
2010		18.1		14	-4.1
2011		18.9		33.3	14.4

Total		95.7		117.7	22

From	2002	to	2011
EPS increase (sen)				27.5
DPO				81%
Return on retained earnings				125%

(Figures are in sens)

Pantech - Return on Retained Earnings

Pantech

Year	DPS	EPS	Retained EPS
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007	0.7	5.5	4.8
2008	1.6	6.8	5.2
2009	2.3	13	10.7
2010	4.2	10.5	6.3
2011	2.8	6.2	3.4

Total	11.6	42	30.4

2007-2011
EPS increase (sen)		0.7
DPO		28%
Return on retained earnings		2%

(Figures are in sens)

Parkson - Return on Retained Earnings

Parkson

Year	DPS	EPS	Retained EPS
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008	14.7	25	10.3
2009	5	25.1	20.1
2010	16	28.8	12.8
2011	15	31.9	16.9

Total	50.7	110.8	60.1

2008-2011
EPS increase (sen)		6.9
DPO		46%
Return on retained earnings		11%

(Figures are in sens)

Genting Bhd - Return on Retained Earnings

Genting Bhd

Year	DPS	EPS		Retained EPS
2002	2.8	20.7		17.9
2003	3	20.3		17.3
2004	3.2	26.3		23.1
2005	3.7	28.3		24.6
2006	4.5	36.1		31.6
2007	26.8	43.1		16.3
2008	5.4	46		40.6
2009	5.3	31.5		26.2
2010	5.6	80.5		74.9
2011	6	63.7	P	57.7

Total	66.3	396.5		330.2

2002-2011
EPS increase (sen)		43.0
DPO		17%
Return on retained earnings		13%

(Figures are in sens)

KPJ - Return on Retained Earnings

KPJ

Year	DPS	EPS		Retained EPS
2002	2.2	2.5		0.3
2003	1.6	4.6		3
2004	1.4	5		3.6
2005	1.6	5.5		3.9
2006	2.5	5.6		3.1
2007	5.5	11.5		6
2008	4	12.4		8.4
2009	5.2	17.6		12.4
2010	4.9	21.2		16.3
2011	11.2	22.5	P	11.3

Total	40.1	108.4		68.3

2002-2011
EPS increase (sen)		20.0
DPO		37%
Return on retained earnings		29%

(Figures are in sens)

APM - Return on Retained Earnings

APM

Year	DPS	EPS		Retained EPS
2002	11.2	35.5		24.3
2003	9.2	24.2		15
2004	7.9	29.1		21.2
2005	12.2	34.8		22.6
2006	9.4	27.5		18.1
2007	10.8	26.7		15.9
2008	11.8	25.4		13.6
2009	11.3	36		24.7
2010	13.5	60.1		46.6
2011	16.5	59.5	P	43

Total	113.8	358.8		245

2002-2011
EPS increase (sen)		24.0
DPO		32%
Return on retained earnings		10%

(Figures are in sens)

United Plantations - Return on Retained Earnings

United Plantations

Year	DPS	EPS		Retained EPS
2002	21.1	37.2		16.1
2003	19.8	45.4		25.6
2004	21.6	57.9		36.3
2005	21.6	63.9		42.3
2006	26.8	72.1		45.3
2007	25.8	86.2		60.4
2008	29.8	151		121.2
2009	37.5	129		91.5
2010	63.8	133		69.2
2011	71.2	182	P	110.8

Total	339	957.7		618.7

2002-2011
EPS increase (sen)		144.8
DPO		35%
Return on retained earnings		23%

(Figures are in sens)

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?