Friday 21 September 2012

Higher stock prices help Americans regain wealth



WASHINGTON (AP) — A jump in the stock market and rising home prices are bringing Americans closer to regaining the wealth they lost in the recession.
U.S. household net worth dipped in the April-June quarter, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday. But gains in stock and home equity since the last quarter ended have likely raised total household wealth to within 5 percent of its peak before the Great Recession.
Millions of Americans still feeling the effects of the housing bust, or who don't own any stocks, haven't benefited as much.
Still, the increased overall wealth could give many people and businesses the confidence to step up spending and boost U.S. economic growth and job creation. That's a key goal of the bond-buying plan the Federal Reserve unveiled last week. The Fed hopes to drive interest rates down and stock prices up.
Household net worth reflects the value of assets like homes, bank accounts and stocks minus debts like mortgages and credit cards. It peaked before the recession at $67.4 trillion.
Tumbling home and stock prices during the recession cost Americans nearly a quarter of their wealth. From a pre-recession peak of $67.4 trillion in the fall of 2007, household wealth plummeted to $51.2 trillion in early 2009. But as of the April-June quarter, it's climbed back to $62.7 trillion.
The Fed report also found that:
— Americans borrowed more in the April-June quarter, marking the largest increase since the first quarter of 2008. Mortgage debt declined again, as it has each quarter for more than three years. But Americans are taking on more student and auto loans.
— After-tax incomes have inched up, making debts slightly easier to manage. U.S. household debt equaled about 103 percent of after-tax income in the April-June quarter. That was down from 104 percent in the first quarter. The ratio had soared to 125 percent at the height of the housing bubble, up from about 90 percent during the 1990s.
— Corporations have begun to spend some of the cash they built up during the recession. Corporations held $1.73 trillion cash at the end of last quarter, down from its near-peak of $1.75 trillion in the first quarter. If the trend continues, it could signal that companies are investing and expanding more, which could lead to more hiring.
— State and local governments borrowed more for the first time in six quarters. That suggests that steep spending cuts by those governments, which have cost hundreds of thousands of jobs, may slow.
Bill Hampel, chief economist at the Credit Union National Association, calculates that Americans will add $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion to their net worth in the current July-September quarter. That would bring net worth to about 4.3 percent below its pre-recession peak.
"We're not there yet, but we're getting close," Hampel said. "Households are rebuilding their capacity to spend."
For now, many consumers are holding back in the face of still-sluggish job growth and a high unemployment rate, now 8.1 percent. Consumer confidence is at its lowest point since November, according to The Conference Board, a private research group.
Once consumer confidence "turns around, we could get a sustained period of pretty decent household spending," Hampel said.
Dennis Fassett, a health care IT consultant in the Detroit area, has benefited from rebounding home and stock prices. Yet he remains anxious about the economy.
Four years ago, behind in his retirement savings and worried about his job in the struggling auto industry, Fassett took a chance and bought rental real estate at reduced prices. Prices for his investment properties have since risen. And his retirement account is back within 10 percent of its pre-crash level.
"The economy's still looking funky," said Fassett, 50. "But I'm seeing signs of life."
Despite the steady increase in overall U.S. net worth, many Americans have seen little or no improvement in their own wealth. The gains have occurred mainly in stocks, bonds and other financial assets. Fifty-four percent of U.S. households owned no stocks of stock mutual funds as of the end of 2011 , according to data from the Investment Company Institute.
Home equity, the primary source of wealth for most American households, has just barely started to recover.
The value of Americans' stock and mutual fund holdings fell a little over 4 percent last quarter to $14.3 trillion. That lowered net worth by about $320 billion to $62.7 trillion. But it's well above the recession-era low of $9.1 trillion at the end of 2008.
By contrast, home equity rose in the second quarter for only the second time since 2006, up 2.1 percent to $16.9 trillion. That's up from a bottom of about $16.1 trillion. Home equity remains far below the $22.7 trillion reached in 2006, at the peak of the bubble.
Stocks account for about 22 percent of Americans' wealth. Housing makes up 27 percent, down from one-third at the peak of the bubble. The rest of household net worth is made up of savings accounts, bonds, pension fund holdings and ownership stakes in small businesses.
Stock ownership is much more concentrated than real estate. About 80 percent of stocks are held by the wealthiest 10 percent of the population. That means a majority of Americans don't enjoy much of a lift from stock-market rallies.
That said, wealthier Americans drive an outsize proportion of consumer spending: About 20 percent of Americans account for about 40 percent of spending.
Americans with 401(k) retirement savings accounts, especially those who have continued to contribute to them, have benefited from the stock market's gains. More than 96 percent of workers with 401(k) plans now have more money in their accounts than before the market top five years ago, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington.
___
Carpenter reported from Chicago.

Tesco: Buy, Sell, or Hold?


Tesco: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSCO.LTesco
CAPS Rating0/5 Stars
Down $339.75 $-3.70 (-1.08%)


Right now I am trawling through the
 FTSE 100 and giving my verdict on every member of the blue chip index.LONDON -- I'm always searching for shares that can help ordinary investors like you make money from the stock market.
I hope to pinpoint the very best buying opportunities in today's uncertain market, as well as highlight those shares I feel you should hold… and those I feel you should sell!
I'm assessing every share on five different measures. Here's what I'm looking for in each company:
  1. Financial strength: Low levels of debt and other liabilities
  2. Profitability: Consistent earnings and high profit margins
  3. Management: Competent executives creating shareholder value
  4. Long-term prospects: A solid competitive position and respectable growth prospects
  5. Valuation: An underrated share price
A look at TescoToday I'm evaluating Tesco (LSE: TSCO.L  ) , a U.K.-based multinational retailer that also engages in general merchandise, telecom, banking and insurance services,which currently trades at 346 pence. Here are my thoughts:
1. Financial strength: Tesco has relatively modest gearing with net debt of 52% of tangible equity. The balance sheet is solid, backed up by property assets worth 36 billion pounds and interest cover of 15. I do not foresee any problems with liquidity as free cash flow generation has been strong -- averaging 2.5 billion pounds the past three years -- and will only improve with the company's intention to decrease capital expenditures and keep it below 5% of sales the next few years.
2. Profitability: Tesco's performance this past decade has been impressive, consistently delivering ROEs of 16%, compounding sales by 10% and earnings by 12% annually, while keeping operating margins at 6%. For the past five years, international sales and operating profits have grown by 14% and 8% per annum, respectively. Also, the company's online retail business has been highly successful, with Tesco now the world's largest and most profitable online grocer with revenues of well over 2 billion pounds. Moreover, the company has profited from its strategy of releasing the value of its property portfolio, gradually selling off property assets the last few years.
3. Management: After 14 years, CEO Terry Leahy has stepped down and has been replaced by Philip Clarke on March 2011. Admittedly, Leahy will be a tough act to follow -- during his tenure, sales have more than doubled and earnings have tripled, while the business has expanded into 13 countries, in the process becoming the world's third largest retailer. Nevertheless, Philip Clarke appears to be an able replacement -- he has been with Tesco for 36 years and was a huge part in the company's expansion into the international market.
4. Long-term prospects: Despite its recent struggles, Tesco still leads the U.K. with a market share of 30%, followed by Wal-Mart's ASDA on 17%, Sainsbury's 16%, and William Morrison's 12%. It has invested 1 billion pounds to revitalize U.K. operations, while its international business has been growing rapidly and now accounts for 32% of revenues. In fact, the company has managed to become the leader in most of its markets outside the U.K.
5. Valuation: Tesco's current market cap of 28 billion pounds is significantly lower than the current market value of its properties pegged at 36 billion pounds. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10 is at the lower end of its 10-year historical P/E ratio, and it currently gives an attractive dividend yield of 4.39%.
My verdict on TescoAlthough past performance is not indicative of future results, I believe Tesco can duplicate last decade's performance. Its fundamentals remain solid despite recent struggles in the U.K., while its international operations, burgeoning general merchandise and retail services -- banking, telecom and online store -- and property development strategy provide huge growth potential. Furthermore, the market value of its properties provides a significant margin of safety while its stable dividend yield, which has been growing by 10% for the past 10 years by the way, will reward investors while waiting.
So overall, I believe Tesco at 346 pence looks like a buy.




Tesco says Fresh & Easy "fighting nicely"




Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:59am EDT
* CEO says worth persisting with Fresh & Easy
* Says changes having an impact on business
By James Davey
LONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Tesco's loss-making Fresh & Easy chain in the United States is "fighting nicely" in a tough market, the chief executive of the British retailer said on Wednesday, underlining his belief that the chain can have a profitable future.
Tesco boss Philip Clarke has this year rejected investor calls to withdraw from the United States, though he told shareholders at their annual meeting in June he would pull the plug on the business if it continued to disappoint.
Speaking at the World Retail Congress (WRC) on Wednesday, Clarke gave the West Coast chain, which trades from nearly 200 stores, a renewed vote of confidence.
"The stores that we have continue to grow nicely and the reason it's worth persisting is that the stores themselves fulfil a particular need for a particular group of customers," he said.
"It's only five years old, it's playing in a play ground with some very big and very old retailers who are very wise and it's fighting nicely."
In April, Clarke said he did not expect Fresh & Easy to break even until its 2013/14 financial year, against a previous target of 2012/13.
Tesco, the world's third-biggest retailer, has slowed its expansion plans for Fresh & Easy and though the chain's underlying sales growth slowed to 3.6 percent in its fiscal first quarter from 12.3 percent in the fourth quarter of the previous financial year, the CEO said operational improvements, such as new product ranges, were having an impact.
"Already the changes that we've been making have gone some way to prove that's there's life in Fresh & Easy yet," he said.
"We'll continue to hopefully see those sales grow and it move towards profitability."
Once one of the most consistent British companies in terms of earnings growth, Tesco stunned investors in January with its first profit warning in more than 20 years.
In April, Clarke, a Tesco career lifer who as a youth stacked shelves in his local store, also slashed expansion plans for the business in Britain and said he would spend over 1 billion pounds ($1.63 billion) on improving stores and online shopping in a bid to reverse a decline in market share.
Tesco will report first-half results on Oct. 3.
In his speech at the WRC, Clarke said digital technology was shifting the "tectonic plates" of the retail industry. He expected that this Christmas one in five online orders in the UK would be made on a mobile device.
Shares in Tesco, down 8 percent over the last year, were 0.2 percent lower at 343 pence at 1350 GMT, valuing the business at about 27.7 billion pounds.

Dow Index Components


INDEX COMPONENTS


9.25
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58.34
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69.85
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9.19
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92.54
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19.11
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117.85
1.25
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51.87
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22.43
0.17
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59.28
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17.76
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206.18
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23.1788
0.0288
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68.90
0.30
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41.25
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38.64
0.12
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41.60
0.76
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93.15
0.32
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93.58
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44.89
0.38
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31.45
0.398
+1.28%
24.41
0.25
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69.56
0.30
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37.94
0.18
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68.45
0.22
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80.92
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45.49
0.22
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74.75
0.38
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91.52
0.95
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