Thursday, 4 December 2025

Multiculturalism and Malay Preeminence. The push and pull factors. A complex, often contentious, interplay that shapes policies, identity, and national discourse in Malaysia.




The tension between Multiculturalism and "Ketuanan Melayu" (Malay Supremacy or Malay Preeminence) forms the central, defining axis of Malaysian politics and social life. It's not a simple binary opposition but a complex, often contentious, interplay that shapes policies, identity, and national discourse.

Let's break down each concept and then discuss their interaction and evolution.

1. Defining the Concepts

Multiculturalism in the Malaysian Context:

  • Factual Reality: Malaysia is inherently multicultural, with the population comprising Bumiputera (Malays and indigenous peoples, ~69%), Chinese (~23%), Indians (~7%), and other minorities.

  • As a Principle: It suggests a model of national unity that celebrates diversity, with equal citizenship, cultural recognition, and socio-economic participation for all ethnic groups. The "Bangsa Malaysia" (Malaysian Nation) vision, articulated in the 1990s, aimed for a united national identity that transcends ethnic lines.

  • Manifestations: Constitutional guarantees for freedom of religion (though Islam is the religion of the federation), vernacular schools (Chinese and Tamil), cultural festivals, and the use of multiple languages in private life.

"Ketuanan Melayu" (Malay Preeminence):

  • Core Idea: The belief that Malays, as the indigenous people (Bumiputera, or "sons of the soil"), hold a special and paramount position in Malaysia. This is not merely cultural but political, economic, and social.

  • Legal-Institutional Foundation: It is embedded in the Malaysian Constitution (Article 153), which assigns the Yang di-Pertuan Agong (King) the responsibility to safeguard the "special position" of Malays and Bumiputera. This is operationalized through:

    • The New Economic Policy (NEP, 1971) and its successors: Quotas and preferential policies in education (university placements, scholarships), public sector employment, business licenses, and equity ownership.

    • Language: Malay as the sole national and official language.

    • Religion: Islam's position as the religion of the federation.

    • Monarchy: The Malay Sultanates as a central institution.

2. The Historical and Political Nexus

The interplay between these two forces is rooted in history:

  • Colonial Legacy: British "divide and rule" policies created segregated economic roles—Malays in agriculture and bureaucracy, Chinese in tin and commerce, Indians in plantations—sowing seeds of economic disparity.

  • The "Bargain" of Independence: The pre-independence social contract is interpreted as granting non-Malays citizenship in exchange for accepting Malay special rights and the Malay language as the national language.

  • The 1969 Trauma: The race riots of May 13, 1969, were a pivotal trauma. They were interpreted as the result of economic imbalance and political challenge to Malay dominance. This led to the declaration of a state of emergency, the suspension of parliament, and the enshrinement of Ketuanan Melayu as the dominant state ideology via the NEP and stricter sedition laws (prohibiting discussion of sensitive issues like Malay rights).

3. The Political Arena: A Constant Negotiation

Malaysian politics is the primary theatre where this tension is managed, often through ethnic-based parties within coalitions.

  • Barisan Nasional (BN) Model (1974-2018): The long-ruling coalition was built around UMNO (United Malays National Organisation) as the unquestioned leader, championing Ketuanan Melayu. It was partnered with "junior" ethnic parties (MCA for Chinese, MIC for Indians). This structure institutionalized a top-down, managed multiculturalism, where non-Malay interests were channeled through negotiations within the coalition, always subordinate to UMNO's Malay agenda.

  • The Reformasi & Post-2008 Shift: The rise of the Pakatan Rakyat/Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition presented a challenge. It promoted a more multicultural "Malaysian Malaysia" vision, gaining significant non-Malay and urban Malay support. However, its electoral success (2008, 2013, 2018) triggered a Malay political backlash, framed as a threat to Malay power.

  • The "Green Wave" & Conservative Turn: The perception of multiculturalism as a zero-sum threat to Malay interests has fueled the rise of Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and a more assertive Ketuanan Melayu stance within UMNO. The current "unity government" under PM Anwar Ibrahim struggles to balance PH's multicultural base with the need to reassure the Malay majority, often leading to policy caution and mixed signals.

4. Key Areas of Contention

  1. Education: Vernacular schools (SJKs) are seen by multiculturalists as a right, but by Ketuanan Melayu proponents as an obstacle to national unity and Malay language supremacy.

  2. Religion: Issues like the use of the word "Allah" by non-Muslims, apostasy, and jurisdictional conflicts between civil and syariah courts highlight the tension between Islamic primacy and religious pluralism.

  3. Economy: Affirmative action remains the most potent instrument of Ketuanan Melayu. Calls for needs-based rather than race-based policies challenge its very foundation, often met with strong resistance.

  4. Language & Culture: Debates over English proficiency, the status of Jawi (Arabic script for Malay), and cultural expressions constantly test the boundaries of national identity.

5. Contemporary Dynamics and Conclusion

The dichotomy is evolving:

  • "Ketuanan Melayu" is Not Monolithic: It ranges from conservative, ethno-nationalist forms to more developmental, modern versions. There is growing internal debate about its effectiveness and fairness.

  • Multiculturalism is Also Evolving: It is no longer just about inter-ethnic bargaining but includes more universal discourses on good governance, anti-corruption, and justice, which resonate across races.

  • The Demography of Hope: Younger, more urban, and connected Malaysians of all backgrounds often exhibit more hybrid and inclusive identities. However, this is counterbalanced by persistent racial polarization, especially in education and politics.

In summary, the relationship between multiculturalism and Ketuanan Melayu is a dynamic and unresolved dialectic. Malaysia is not a melting pot, nor is it a purely hierarchical ethnic oligarchy. It is a society constantly negotiating a "pluralist compromise," where a de jure multicultural state operates within a de facto framework of Malay political and cultural preeminence. The future trajectory of Malaysian politics depends on whether a new, more inclusive synthesis can emerge—one that addresses legitimate Malay concerns about identity and equity without relegating non-Malays to perpetual second-class citizenship—or whether the pendulum will swing further toward a more exclusive ethno-nationalist model.

Wednesday, 3 December 2025

Market share price volatility and relationship to your buying price. How long after holding can you expect the market share price to be ALWAYS ABOVE your buying price, using various assumptions.

 




It is not uncommon to see a share price of a stock rises 50% and falls its equivalent 1/3rd in a year (52 weeks period).   

Assuming, you are a long term investor who has a time horizon of 5 years to 10 years and you have the ability to pick a stock that grows its intrinsic value consistently and predictably at 10% a year for 10 years.

You bought this stock at $1.00.   Based on the above statement, you can expect the share price to rise to $1.50 or drop to RM 0.70, due to various factors, many are unrelated to the fundamentals of the company.  

We assume, the market share price always reflects this intrinsic value in the long run, but with the above volatility.

The question asked:  How many years after holding this stock that is growing at 10% per year consistently, can the investor expect the market share price to be ALWAYS ABOVE the buying price?

Answer is:  4.3 years (or 5 years)



If the intrinsic value (which is reflected in the market share price )of the business grows at:

15% per year

20% per year

30% per year,

the number of years invested when the market share price is ALWAYS ABOVE the buying price are as follows:

2.9 years (or 3 years)

2.22 years (or 3 years)

1.55 years (or 2 years)



Stock Price Fluctuation and Intrinsic Growth Analysis

An investor should respond to short-term stock market price fluctuations and quotational losses by focusing on the underlying business fundamentals rather than market sentiment. Since the market is a voting machine in the short term, prices can swing irrationally. Quotational losses (paper losses) are temporary and often reverse over time if the intrinsic value of the business grows. The key is to maintain a long-term perspective, avoid emotional decisions, and only sell if the original investment thesis is broken.

The margin of safety principle is powerful because it provides a buffer against errors, volatility, and unforeseen adversities. By purchasing a stock at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, an investor reduces downside risk and enhances potential returns. Even if the market price falls further, the margin of safety helps ensure that the investment remains sound. Over time, as intrinsic value grows, the market price tends to reflect it, leading to satisfactory results with minimized permanent loss of capital.

My personal market reflection from 2010, focusing on the KLSE recovery after the 2008 downturn.

This post reflects on the recovery of the KLSE (KLCI) from its March 2009 low to January 2010, offering observations and investment advice.



Tuesday, 12 January 2010


Reviewing the rise in KLCI from March 09 to now (12/1/2010)



Key Market Observations:

  • The initial rebound was broad-based, but momentum later concentrated on blue-chip and index-linked stocks, particularly financials.

  • Retail investors were largely slow to re-enter, missing the steepest gains.

  • The market showed overreaction tendencies, with prices sometimes moving in "giant steps" detached from short-term fundamental changes (e.g., glove sector).

  • Corrections have been mild so far, with a warning that the "bull party" will eventually end.

Core Investment Philosophy:

  • Focus on individual stocks, not the overall market, by understanding the business, management, and intrinsic value.

  • Debate about whether the market is overvalued is common; the solution is disciplined stock picking.

Recommended Stock-Picking Matrix:
Seek companies with a 5-10 year consistent track record of:

Buy Strategy:
Purchase such companies at bargain prices, when:

  • Earnings Yield (EY) and Dividend Yield (DY) are at the high end of their historical range.

  • Free Cash Flow yield relative to Enterprise Value (FCF/EV) is an attractive multiple of the risk-free rate.

Definitions Provided:

  • FCF = Cash Flow from Operations - Cash Flow from Investing

  • TOCE = Equity + Long-Term Debt

  • EV = Market Capitalization + Total Debt - Cash



TOCE = Total Capital Employed

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A detailed discussion

This 2010 article provides a thoughtful, real-time observation of a market recovery, blending psychological insight with a disciplined value-investing framework. Its true value lies less in its specific market calls and more in the timeless principles it demonstrates.

Here is a critical analysis of its content and the key lessons it offers.

Critical Analysis: Strengths and Limitations

The article's strengths lie in its philosophical and practical approach to investing, though its timing and scope present some limitations.










Key Lessons for Investors

The article's enduring value is in the lessons it embodies:

  • Lesson 1: Manage Psychology, Not Just Portfolios: The article shows that the biggest risk in a recovery is often emotional—the fear of re-entering or the greed of chasing overheated sectors. Successful investing requires managing these biases.

  • Lesson 2: Fundamentals Anchor Long-Term Results: The recommended focus on high ROE (>15%) and strong Free Cash Flow is a recipe for finding companies that can compound value over time, regardless of market cycles. This discipline helps avoid speculative bubbles.

  • Lesson 3: Flexibility is Essential: The author was observing a fluid situation. A key lesson from that period is that investors must "approach the future with an open mind to different outcomes". Rigid predictions often fail.

  • Lesson 4: Macro Context Matters: While stock-picking is crucial, the article's omission of macro forces (like central bank policy) is a reminder to consider the broader environment. Malaysia's own "V-shaped" recovery from the 1997 crisis was heavily influenced by specific capital control policies.

The Stock-Picker's Matrix: A Modern Application

The author's core strategy remains highly applicable. Here’s how you can interpret it for current research:

  • High ROE (>15%): This indicates a company's consistent ability to generate profits from shareholder equity. Look for stability over 5-10 years, not just a single peak.

  • Strong Free Cash Flow (FCF/Sales >5%): This "cash cow" indicator shows financial resilience. It allows a company to invest, pay dividends, or weather downturns without relying on debt.

  • Buying at a Bargain: The metrics for identifying value (high Earnings Yield, attractive FCF/EV yield) are crucial. A wonderful company can be a poor investment if purchased at an excessively high price.

Additional Considerations

The search results highlight two other critical concepts the article did not address:

  • Survivorship Bias: When studying past winners (like the top stocks since 2009), remember we only see the companies that survived and thrived. Many others failed and were delisted, skewing our perception of past opportunities.

  • The "Why" Behind the Rally: The sustained bull market was not just about bargains. It was fueled by over a decade of historically low interest rates and quantitative easing by central banks, which pushed investors into riskier assets like stocks.

In summary, treat the article not as a market forecast, but as a case study in disciplined investing psychology and fundamental analysis during a period of extreme uncertainty.

You can apply the author's specific financial matrix (screening for high ROE and FCF) to analyze a particular stock or sector you're researching.

Two important things in capital structure: Is the business a consumer or producer of capital? Is the business properly leveraged?

Two important things in the capital structure of the business

Capital Structure

When looking at capital structure, try to determine two things:

1. Is the business a consumer or producer of capital? Does it constantly require capital infusions to build growth or replace assets? Warren Buffett - and many other value investors - shun businesses that cannot generate sufficient capital on their own. In fact, one of the guiding principles behind Berkshire Hathaway is the generation of excess capital by subsidiary businesses that can be deployed elsewhere.

2. Is the business properly leveraged? Overleveraged businesses are at risk and additionally burden earnings with interest payments. Under-leveraged businesses, while better than overleveraged, may not be maximizing potential returns to shareholders.


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These two points are at the very heart of sophisticated business and investment analysis. Let's break them down in detail.

1. Is the business a consumer or producer of capital?

This question gets to the fundamental quality of a business model and its "economic engine."

Capital Producer (The "Goose that Lays Golden Eggs"):

  • What it is: A business that consistently generates more cash from its operations than it needs to reinvest to maintain or modestly grow its business. This results in free cash flow.

  • Characteristics:

    • High profitability & strong moat: Often has pricing power, strong brands, or network effects (e.g., Coca-Cola, Microsoft's Windows).

    • Low capital intensity: Doesn't require constant heavy spending on factories, equipment, or inventory to stay competitive (e.g., software, consulting, branded goods).

    • Reinvestment needs are low: Maintenance capital expenditures are small relative to earnings.

  • Why Buffett Loves It: This is the core of the Berkshire model. Subsidiaries like See's Candies or BNSF Railway throw off excess cash that is sent to Omaha. Buffett and Munger then act as "capital allocators," deploying that excess cash to buy other great businesses or stocks, compounding wealth without needing to tap external markets. It's self-funding and self-reinforcing.

  • Implication for Investors: These businesses are less risky during downturns (they don't need to borrow), can fund their own growth, and often return capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. They create optionality.

Capital Consumer (The "Engine That Needs Constant Fuel"):

  • What it is: A business whose internal cash generation is insufficient to fund its operations and growth ambitions. It constantly requires external capital from debt (loans) or equity (selling shares).

  • Characteristics:

  • The Risk: These businesses are vulnerable. When credit markets tighten or investor sentiment sours, their lifeline of external capital can be cut off, leading to crisis or bankruptcy. They also dilute shareholders if they constantly issue new stock.

  • Implication for Investors: They can be spectacular investments if the growth materializes and the capital is deployed efficiently (e.g., Amazon in its first decade). However, they are inherently riskier. For value investors like Buffett, they are often avoided because they lack the dependable, compounding quality of capital producers.


2. Is the business properly leveraged?

This is about the intelligent use of debt within the capital structure. The goal is to find the optimal balance, recognizing that debt is a powerful but dangerous tool.

Overleveraged (The "Walking on a Tightrope" Business):

  • What it is: A business with so much debt that its financial health and operational flexibility are severely compromised.

  • Risks and Burdens:

    1. Solvency Risk: In an economic downturn or a period of rising interest rates, the business may not generate enough cash to make interest or principal payments, leading to default.

    2. Strategic Handcuffs: All free cash flow goes to servicing debt, leaving nothing for R&D, marketing, acquisitions, or shareholder returns. The company can't invest in its future.

    3. Amplified Downturns: A small decline in earnings can wipe out profits entirely after hefty interest payments.

    4. Loss of Creditor/Investor Confidence: Makes it expensive or impossible to raise more capital when needed.

  • Example: Many retailers that took on huge debt for leveraged buyouts and were then unable to adapt to e-commerce.

Under-Leveraged (The "Excessively Cautious" Business):

  • What it is: A business with little to no debt, often holding large cash balances.

  • Potential Drawbacks (The Opportunity Cost):

    1. Inefficient Capital Structure: Debt is typically cheaper than equity (interest is tax-deductible). By using no debt, the business may have a higher Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), lowering its intrinsic value.

    2. Lower Returns on Equity (ROE): Prudent leverage can magnify returns to equity shareholders. Avoiding all debt might mean leaving "money on the table" and not maximizing shareholder wealth.

    3. Missed Strategic Opportunities: Could lack the "dry powder" (or willingness to borrow) to make a strategic acquisition or invest counter-cyclically during a market dip.

  • Why It's Still Preferable: As the text says, it's far better than being overleveraged. It represents low financial risk. The critique is one of optimization, not survival.

Properly Leveraged (The "Golden Mean"):

  • What it is: A business that uses debt thoughtfully and conservatively to enhance returns without jeopardizing its financial fortress.

  • Characteristics:

    • Debt is used for clear, value-accretive purposes (e.g., funding a predictable expansion, a share buyback when shares are cheap, or a strategic acquisition).

    • Debt levels are easily serviceable by the company's stable, predictable cash flows (often measured by ratios like Debt/EBITDA or Interest Coverage Ratio).

    • The debt maturity schedule is manageable, with no dangerous "debt walls."

  • Example: A capital-producing business like Apple, which despite having massive cash reserves, has issued debt at low rates to fund shareholder returns (avoiding tax repatriation costs), thus optimizing its capital structure.

The Interconnection:

These two points are deeply linked. A capital producer (Point 1) is in a far stronger, safer position to use leverage effectively (Point 2). Its stable cash flows can reliably service debt, allowing it to boost returns for shareholders.

Conversely, a capital consumer that takes on significant leverage is playing with fire—it's reliant on both external capital markets and its own volatile performance to survive.

In summary, the ideal investment for a value investor is a capital-producing business with a wide economic moat, which is prudently leveraged to enhance its already excellent returns on equity, while posing no threat to its long-term financial stability. This is the model Warren Buffett has sought and deployed at Berkshire Hathaway for decades.

The different types of bulk ship carriers in the world

The world of bulk carriers is fascinating and crucial to global trade, moving the raw materials that build and power our world. Here is an enlightening breakdown of the different types, categorized primarily by size, cargo, and capability.

The Core Classification: By Size and Cargo Type

Bulk carriers are most commonly grouped by their size, measured in Deadweight Tonnage (DWT—the total weight a ship can carry). This size directly correlates with the trade routes they serve and the cargoes they carry.


1. Handysize (10,000 - 39,999 DWT)

  • The "Workhorses" or "Trucks of the Sea."

  • Characteristics: Small, versatile, and nimble. They are often geared (equipped with their own cranes), allowing them to serve remote ports with limited infrastructure.

  • Primary Cargoes: Minor bulks like grain, fertilizers, sugar, wood products, steel, and cement.

  • Trade Routes: Global and flexible, operating in coastal regions, small ports, and inland seas.

2. Handymax/Supramax (40,000 - 64,999 DWT)

  • The "Versatile Middleweights." (The term "Handymax" is older, with "Supramax" now more common).

  • Characteristics: A larger, more efficient evolution of the Handysize. Almost always geared. They offer a sweet spot between flexibility and cargo volume.

  • Primary Cargoes: Similar to Handysize but in larger volumes, also including coal, minerals, and aggregates.

  • Trade Routes: Serve a wide range of global ports, including many that cannot accommodate larger vessels.

3. Panamax (65,000 - 99,999 DWT)

  • The "Canal Crossers." Originally defined by the maximum dimensions capable of transiting the old Panama Canal locks (pre-2016 expansion).

  • Characteristics: Designed to maximize the canal's dimensions. Can be geared or gearless.

  • Primary Cargoes: Major bulks like coal, grain, and bauxite/alumina, as well as minor bulks.

  • Trade Routes: Historically dominated the trans-Americas coal and grain trades. Still vital on routes using the Panama Canal.

4. Post-Panamax / Kamsarmax (100,000+ DWT)

  • The "Optimized Designs."

    • Post-Panamax: Wider and longer than the old Panama Canal limits.

    • Kamsarmax: A subset (~82,000 DWT) designed to the maximum dimensions for the port of Kamsar (Guinea), a major bauxite loading hub.

  • Characteristics: These are design-maximized vessels for specific trades or newer canals (like the expanded Panama Canal).

5. Capesize (100,000+ DWT, typically 180,000 DWT)

  • The "Ocean Giants."

  • Characteristics: The largest dry bulk carriers. They are always gearless (rely on shore equipment) due to their size. Their name comes from the fact they are too large to transit the Suez or (old) Panama Canals and must sail via the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn.

  • Primary Cargoes: Iron ore and coal—the raw materials for steelmaking and power generation.

  • Trade Routes: Long-haul routes between major export hubs (Brazil, Australia, South Africa) and import regions (China, Japan, Europe).

6. Very Large Ore Carrier (VLOC) & Valemax (300,000+ DWT)

  • The "Specialized Behemoths."

  • Characteristics: These are a subset of Capesize, specifically designed and often dedicated to the iron ore trade between Brazil and China. Valemax ships are the world's largest bulk carriers, built for the Brazilian mining giant Vale.

  • Primary Cargoes: Iron ore exclusively.

  • Trade Routes: Dedicated shuttle services (e.g., Brazil to China).


Classification by Other Features

By Loading/Unloading Gear:

  • Gearless: Depend entirely on port equipment. Cheaper to build and maintain, but limited to well-equipped ports. (All Capesize, many Panamax).

  • Geared: Equipped with onboard cranes (derricks/gantries). More versatile and independent. (All Handysize/Supramax, some Panamax).

By Cargo Specialization:

  • Standard Bulk Carrier: Carries dry bulk in holds.

  • Self-Discharger: Has a built-in conveyor system (e.g., continuous ship unloader) for rapid discharge of specific cargoes like grain or alumina.

  • Lakers: Specifically designed for the Great Lakes of North America, with a unique silhouette to fit locks.

  • BIBO (Bulk-In, Bags-Out): Can load bulk cargo but unload it into bags, adding value for certain markets.

  • Cement Carrier: Highly specialized with pneumatic systems to handle powdered cement.

  • Log Carrier: Fitted with reinforced holds and tween-decks to carry timber.

How This Relates to Your Document:

The Baltic Exchange report you shared uses these exact classifications to report market rates. Each segment (Capesize, Panamax, Ultramax/Supramax, Handysize) has its own freight rate index (like the 5TC for Capesize) because their supply, demand, and trading patterns are fundamentally different. For example, a boom in Brazilian iron ore exports will spike Capesize rates, while a U.S. grain harvest will primarily affect Panamax and Handysize rates.

In essence, the bulk carrier fleet forms a pyramid:

  • Base: Many small, versatile Handysize/Supramax vessels serving countless ports and cargoes.

  • Middle: The efficient Panamax/Post-Panamax workhorses on key commodity routes.

  • Peak: A smaller number of massive, specialized Capesize/VLOC ships moving the foundational commodities of the global economy on trunk routes.

This ecosystem ensures the cost-effective transport of everything from the grain in your bread to the steel in your car and the coal that powers electricity.

Tuesday, 2 December 2025

****Buffett (1992): Do not categorise stocks into growth and value types, the two approaches are joined at the hip

 

****Buffett (1992): Do not categorise stocks into growth and value types, the two approaches are joined at the hip


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Here is a summary of Warren Buffett's key points from his 1992 shareholder letter:

Core Argument: The traditional division between "value" and "growth" investing is a false and unhelpful dichotomy. True investing is always about seeking value.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Growth and Value Are Inseparable: Growth is a critical component in calculating a business's intrinsic value. Its impact can be positive, negative, or negligible, but it is always a variable in the valuation equation.

  2. "Value Investing" is Redundant: All legitimate investing is the pursuit of value. Paying more for a stock than its calculated intrinsic value is speculation, not investing.

  3. Surface Metrics Are Misleading: Traditional "value" indicators (low P/E, low P/B, high yield) or "growth" indicators (high P/E, high P/B) are not definitive. A stock with a high P/E can still be a "value" purchase if its intrinsic value is even higher.

  4. Growth Alone Does Not Create Value: Growth only benefits investors when the business can generate returns on its incremental capital that exceed its cost of capital. Profitable growth that consumes vast amounts of capital can destroy shareholder value (e.g., the airline industry).

  5. The Crucial Metric is Return on Capital: The primary determinant of value is not profit growth itself, but the amount of capital required to achieve that growth. The lower the capital consumed for a given level of growth, the higher the intrinsic value.

Practical Investor Lesson: Investors should avoid companies and sectors where fast profit growth is accompanied by low returns on capital employed (below the cost of capital). The focus must be on the relationship between growth, capital required, and the resulting returns.