October 28, 2008
Warren Buffett Isn't You. Don't Listen to Him, Don't Trust Him, He is Wrong.Posted by Karen DeCoster at October 28, 2008 08:15 PM
My article from last week, Warren Buffett, Government Propagandist, drew more emails than anything I can recall in recent times. There were 200+ favorable, and only three that disagreed with me. Some web surfing this morning revealed some others who joined the fray. This article, 5 Reasons to Ignore Buffett, is eerily parallel to my piece (sometimes point-for-point), and declares Warren a "verbal interventionist." Then, here's a piece by C.S. Jefferson that states:
The difference for the average investor is that while it’s common for legendary traders of Wall Street to mock how the sheep get sheared by buying at the top and selling at the bottom, they neglect to remember that most people sell not because they want to, but because they have to make bill payments and pay for basic necessities such as food and shelter. Sound advice by professional money managers falls on deaf ears when the margin of error means being able to feed your family or not.
Warren Buffett can buy with impunity, unlike the rest of us with limited resources. Because he is rich enough that whatever decision is made to invest, he can, literally, afford to be wrong until the markets turn around and agree with him at some point or another.
In the National Post, Diane Francis writes Buffett is Wrong: Avoid Stocks and Buffett is Wrong: Avoid Stocks, Part II. In the Sunday Times, Jennifer Hill writes Capital Hill: Buffett is wrong: the market madness is still far from over.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/023716.html
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"Dear Warren Buffett"
Knoxville blogger 500Jerk has penned an open letter to HIs Greatness:
Dear Warren:
I appreciate your advice in the NYT last week, you know, where you advise being greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. That's very helpful. And its good advice, to the extent being greedy is praiseworthy at all. But I get your drift, I truly do: buy now, because American companies are on sale. And believe me, I would like to take advantage of the deep, deep discounts currently available in the stock market, because like you, I believe these investments will result in fabulous profits years from now.
Here's the thing, though, Warren, and I know you don't have this particular problem, but maybe you can mull it over on one of those cold Nebraska nights: Like most Americans, I DON"T HAVE ANY MONEY LEFT TO INVEST IN THE STOCK MARKET. While you may have millions rolling around in your pockets, I invested my spare change. Now I've watched it devalue 25%. So although I'd like to be courageous (I like that word better, don't you?), I can't actually afford to do that. For now, I'll have to hang back and hope the stock market rebounds in fairly short order so I can recover what I've lost.
Thanks for the words of encouragement, though. Maybe I can use them in the next recession. And good luck to you shopping for bargains.
Sincerely yours,
500Jerk
http://blogs.knoxnews.com/knx/granju/2008/10/dear-warren-buffett.html
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Comment: I have blogged on this here.
In making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, the consequences must dominate the probabilities. We never know the future.
The intelligent investor must focus not just on getting the analysis right. You must also ensure against loss if your analysis turns out to be wrong - as even the best analyses will be at least some of the time.
The probability of making at least one mistake at some point in your investing lifetime is virtually 100%, and those odds are entirely out of your control. However, you do have control over the consequences of being wrong.
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/10/consequences-must-dominate.html
Thursday, 30 October 2008
Weathering a Panic
When you are caught in a market panic, the bottom-line reality question is whether capitalism in the United States and other major Western nations will continue to function after the panic ends. If the answer is yes, then there is no reason to sell at foolish levels.
In fact, the only rational thing to do is take courage and make buys. Being gutsy enough to act on our contrarian test - refusing to sell good stocks cheap because Wall Street and Main Street have lost faith for a few days - ensures that your earlier selling at better levels, or not at all, will prove appropriate.
It will be emotionally difficult to buy in a panic. those who can do so are demonstrably rational and therefore also calm enough to sell with discipline as the prior highs approached.
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When appropriate selling has left an investor with only a few, high-quality stocks, he can and should hold onto those gems and play through the difficult experience of a panic or crash. He will be holding only a relatively small portfolio, so his level of pain will be no worse than moderate.
His cash holdings will give emotional comfort and provide the resources for acquiring stocks advantageously when prices get really low and buying feels scary.
A comforting perspective for those less than 50% committed to stocks is that each decline means their cash is gaining stock-buying power faster than their remaining holdings are losing cash value! Think about that.
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Once the panic subsides, there is a lift in the market. But its effect is significantly different across various kinds of stocks. For some issues, there is a sharp snap=back rally; for others, very little improvement.
Just as it is not advisable to sell directly into the panic, it is prudent to reassess positions after the selling frenzy has subsided and an initial bounce in prices has begun.
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Decide in real time, what to sell and what to hold.
Selling should not be urgent because pre-bear phase tactics will have raised a lot of cash, so there is no need to sell to raise cash for margin calls or for new buying.
But because the goal is always to maximize return on capital and to take advantage of the time value of money, look closely at what to hold and what to sell now that the panic's dust has cleared.
One must look forward at future prospects rather than backward at now-irrelevant old (higher) prices.
Some investors may see a contradiction in the advice to hold the remaining few gems through the worst psychological heat, because earlier they were counseled that avoid losses is the first priority and the best reason for selling.
But taking a limited short-term dose of paper losses in a crash - by holding a few items of real quality - is a lesser risk than selling out during the fury and hoping to have the courage and good timing to get back in at lower prices shortly afterward.
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Ref: It's when you sell that counts, by Donald Cassidy
In fact, the only rational thing to do is take courage and make buys. Being gutsy enough to act on our contrarian test - refusing to sell good stocks cheap because Wall Street and Main Street have lost faith for a few days - ensures that your earlier selling at better levels, or not at all, will prove appropriate.
It will be emotionally difficult to buy in a panic. those who can do so are demonstrably rational and therefore also calm enough to sell with discipline as the prior highs approached.
-------
When appropriate selling has left an investor with only a few, high-quality stocks, he can and should hold onto those gems and play through the difficult experience of a panic or crash. He will be holding only a relatively small portfolio, so his level of pain will be no worse than moderate.
His cash holdings will give emotional comfort and provide the resources for acquiring stocks advantageously when prices get really low and buying feels scary.
A comforting perspective for those less than 50% committed to stocks is that each decline means their cash is gaining stock-buying power faster than their remaining holdings are losing cash value! Think about that.
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Once the panic subsides, there is a lift in the market. But its effect is significantly different across various kinds of stocks. For some issues, there is a sharp snap=back rally; for others, very little improvement.
Just as it is not advisable to sell directly into the panic, it is prudent to reassess positions after the selling frenzy has subsided and an initial bounce in prices has begun.
------
Decide in real time, what to sell and what to hold.
Selling should not be urgent because pre-bear phase tactics will have raised a lot of cash, so there is no need to sell to raise cash for margin calls or for new buying.
But because the goal is always to maximize return on capital and to take advantage of the time value of money, look closely at what to hold and what to sell now that the panic's dust has cleared.
One must look forward at future prospects rather than backward at now-irrelevant old (higher) prices.
Some investors may see a contradiction in the advice to hold the remaining few gems through the worst psychological heat, because earlier they were counseled that avoid losses is the first priority and the best reason for selling.
But taking a limited short-term dose of paper losses in a crash - by holding a few items of real quality - is a lesser risk than selling out during the fury and hoping to have the courage and good timing to get back in at lower prices shortly afterward.
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Ref: It's when you sell that counts, by Donald Cassidy
Reviewing and Understanding Earlier Panics
On the way down, each temporary bottom during a bear trend is typically characterized by increases in fear and therefore in trading volume, with a bit of panicky dumping to mark each new interim low.
The final downside climax is most violent and usually sees the greatest trading volume. Selling pressure becomes so intense that it literally cannot be exceeded; it becomes exhausted as large numbers of the previously brave finally capitulate and sell even at obvious bargain levels.
As a large crowd jumps overboard simultaneously, the moment they are finished is why and when prices hit a bottom. This is the long-repeated profile of a final bottom, that is, the culmination of a selling frenzy and the end of a sharp downward movement in prices.
Minyanville founder, Todd Harrison, a wise commentator, says that all markets (up and down) go through 3 stages in sequence:
The final downside climax is most violent and usually sees the greatest trading volume. Selling pressure becomes so intense that it literally cannot be exceeded; it becomes exhausted as large numbers of the previously brave finally capitulate and sell even at obvious bargain levels.
As a large crowd jumps overboard simultaneously, the moment they are finished is why and when prices hit a bottom. This is the long-repeated profile of a final bottom, that is, the culmination of a selling frenzy and the end of a sharp downward movement in prices.
Minyanville founder, Todd Harrison, a wise commentator, says that all markets (up and down) go through 3 stages in sequence:
- disbelief,
- migration and
- panic.
The panic stage is usually followed on lower volume by timid bargain-hunting. When that process runs its course and the bulls run out of guts and/or ammunition, the initial base-building or rally falters. Such failure to hold ground leads to renewed fear, which builds in a minor crescendo to a new, sometimes lower, cascade-shaped bottom on moderately high volume. The key to note here is the less dramatic price drop and volume rise than those seen earlier; the difference proves that the prior low was one of psychological exhaustion or washout.
Major market bottoms often produce a W shape on the charts over two or three months; the two bottom points need not be at exactly the same level.
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Recall the chaotic pace of trading on Oct 19, 1987, when the Dow lost 508 points (23%) and made its bottom for the move on then-record volume.
A more recent is the aftermath of the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The US market actually closed for the rest of the week. After its re-opening on Monday, Sept 17, several trading sessions were required for the emotions and new thinking of the post 9/11 world to be worked out before the selling was all exhausted.
Re-reading reports and looking at newspaper stock-price tables from that time will provide a vivid flavour of the fear psychology that defines a market crash. If there has not been a major crash lately when you read this, the instructive value will be all the greater.
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Important bottoms are typically referred to as selling climaxes because they consist of prices falling in a cascade or waterfall shape (when plotted on a graph against time), accompanied by a sharp concentration of heavy trading volume as investor emotions widely take control and completely trample logic.
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My comments: While the bottom of the market is yet to be certain, many stocks have been sold down hugely. Studying the charts of these stocks reveal many of these stocks are already trading at their bottom for some time, even though the market continues to slip down further.
Ref: It's when you sell that counts, by Donald Cassidy
Managing Investment Risk
Risk equals the potential that actual returns will differ from expected returns.
1. The best way to manage risk is to allow yourself ample time. Start investing now rather than later. When you have time on your side, more of your money can be invested in stocks rather than in bonds and money market instruments because you would have a larger capacity to ride the ups and downs of the stock market.
2. Secondly, you can manage risk by diversifying your money into stocks, bonds and money market investments. This is called asset allocation.
3. Finally, the way you divided your investments depends on your specific situation and your goals. Spend some time thinking about the best way to divide your money based on your needs and the type of risk you can take. This exercise will make a big difference to your investment success.
Ref: Make Your Money Work for You, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
1. The best way to manage risk is to allow yourself ample time. Start investing now rather than later. When you have time on your side, more of your money can be invested in stocks rather than in bonds and money market instruments because you would have a larger capacity to ride the ups and downs of the stock market.
2. Secondly, you can manage risk by diversifying your money into stocks, bonds and money market investments. This is called asset allocation.
3. Finally, the way you divided your investments depends on your specific situation and your goals. Spend some time thinking about the best way to divide your money based on your needs and the type of risk you can take. This exercise will make a big difference to your investment success.
Ref: Make Your Money Work for You, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
Wednesday, 29 October 2008
More on risk
We defined risk as the chance of losing money when you sell your investment. We need to make 2 refinements to this working definition.
1. In investments, risk is defined more broadly as the chance of receiving a return that is different from the return we expected to make.
Risk, in fact, includes not only bad outcomes such as lower than expected returns, but also good outcomes like higher than expected returns.
Thus, if the expected returns of an investment is 5%, the risk that you will earn a 10% return or 0% is exactly the same. In other words, using standard deviation, you do not distinguish between downside risk and upside risk.
For this reason, some investors may not be completely comfortable with standard deviation as a measure of risk.
They may go for:
2. There are also investments whose expected return is known ahead of time.
For example, when you buy a bond that pays a fixed interest payment every six months and the return of principal at maturity, you can tell ahead of time what your actual return will be.
1. In investments, risk is defined more broadly as the chance of receiving a return that is different from the return we expected to make.
Risk, in fact, includes not only bad outcomes such as lower than expected returns, but also good outcomes like higher than expected returns.
Thus, if the expected returns of an investment is 5%, the risk that you will earn a 10% return or 0% is exactly the same. In other words, using standard deviation, you do not distinguish between downside risk and upside risk.
For this reason, some investors may not be completely comfortable with standard deviation as a measure of risk.
They may go for:
- a measurement called the semi-variance where only returns that fall below the expected return are considered.
- they may go for simpler yet common-sensical proxies for risk. For example, it makes sense that stocks of technology companies are riskier than those of food companies. Others prefer to create ranking categories. (For example, ranking money market instruments as lower risk and technology stocks at higher risk.)
2. There are also investments whose expected return is known ahead of time.
For example, when you buy a bond that pays a fixed interest payment every six months and the return of principal at maturity, you can tell ahead of time what your actual return will be.
Anatomy of a Crisis
The urge to panic in the wake of a crisis is understandable and this is one of the greatest fears that many investors face.
One of the best ways to confront our fears is to understand them.
(Basically, we are faced with the following fears: Fear of failure, fear of loss and fear of the unknown.)
In this section, we look at what generally happens in a crisis and some of the questions you should ask when a crisis hits. We will also look back in history and feature some events to draw out important lessons for the future. From this, you can figure out what actions are more likely to be productive and what actions are more likely to be counter-productive.
When a crisis hits
Take 9-11, for example. Now, imagine that it is the day after the destruction of the Twin Towers. Profound shock waves will be felt in New York and beyond, and this will send ripples through to the world economy for some time.
On the morning after, it is near impossible to know exactly how events will play out over the next few weeks or months. But there is a set pattern to how financial markets react to a crisis, historically, and there are a few things worth noting.
Firstly, the inital reaction will be shock. Financial markets hate uncertainty, and nothing creates more uncertainty than a sudden, shattering crisis. The result of the shock is typically a "flight of safety", as investors dump stocks in favour of bonds and cash. Stock prices will, therefore, almost always fall.
At this point, the greatest danger to investors is not shock or that prices are falling, but the urge to panic. When investors panic, they sell at low prices and end up buying back the same stocks later at much higher prices. This knee-jerk effect comes at a high cost for investors, who buy high and sell low.
The second reaction, which usually happens immediately, is increased volatility in the commodity markets. Will the terrorists bomb oilfields and stem supply? Will grain shipments be interrupted? Will demand for gold rise sharply? Uncertainties that affect basic commodities usually cause spasms in the markets.
A third reaction is over-compensation. The first shock wave of selling is often broad and steep. Then, when uncertainty dissipates, investors usually overreact in the opposite direction, sending prices back up to pre-crisis levels.
Things never seem the way they are during a crisis. What you should remember is that the impact of a crisis itself is typically a short-term matter. After a few weeks, calm usually returns. This is not to say that crises are inconsequential or insignificant. The tsunami disascter (26 December 2004) which caused tremendous destruction in Indonesia will require billions of dollars and many years of restoration work. Certain markets may stay depressed for longer.
Historically, what effect a crisis has on the financial markets depends on whether the crisis creates a long-term change in the fundamental nature of an economy. And in most cases (even in the case of the tsunami disaster), the fundamental structures of the affected were not subjected to drastic modifications.
To sum up, the typical pattern following a major crisis is this:
So, should you find yourself in the midst of a crisis in the future, remember:
Make sure your overall portfolio is designed to limit your potential losses during a substantial market decline. This is where you need to invest in many different things.
Ref: Make your Money work for you, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
One of the best ways to confront our fears is to understand them.
(Basically, we are faced with the following fears: Fear of failure, fear of loss and fear of the unknown.)
In this section, we look at what generally happens in a crisis and some of the questions you should ask when a crisis hits. We will also look back in history and feature some events to draw out important lessons for the future. From this, you can figure out what actions are more likely to be productive and what actions are more likely to be counter-productive.
When a crisis hits
Take 9-11, for example. Now, imagine that it is the day after the destruction of the Twin Towers. Profound shock waves will be felt in New York and beyond, and this will send ripples through to the world economy for some time.
On the morning after, it is near impossible to know exactly how events will play out over the next few weeks or months. But there is a set pattern to how financial markets react to a crisis, historically, and there are a few things worth noting.
Firstly, the inital reaction will be shock. Financial markets hate uncertainty, and nothing creates more uncertainty than a sudden, shattering crisis. The result of the shock is typically a "flight of safety", as investors dump stocks in favour of bonds and cash. Stock prices will, therefore, almost always fall.
At this point, the greatest danger to investors is not shock or that prices are falling, but the urge to panic. When investors panic, they sell at low prices and end up buying back the same stocks later at much higher prices. This knee-jerk effect comes at a high cost for investors, who buy high and sell low.
The second reaction, which usually happens immediately, is increased volatility in the commodity markets. Will the terrorists bomb oilfields and stem supply? Will grain shipments be interrupted? Will demand for gold rise sharply? Uncertainties that affect basic commodities usually cause spasms in the markets.
A third reaction is over-compensation. The first shock wave of selling is often broad and steep. Then, when uncertainty dissipates, investors usually overreact in the opposite direction, sending prices back up to pre-crisis levels.
Things never seem the way they are during a crisis. What you should remember is that the impact of a crisis itself is typically a short-term matter. After a few weeks, calm usually returns. This is not to say that crises are inconsequential or insignificant. The tsunami disascter (26 December 2004) which caused tremendous destruction in Indonesia will require billions of dollars and many years of restoration work. Certain markets may stay depressed for longer.
Historically, what effect a crisis has on the financial markets depends on whether the crisis creates a long-term change in the fundamental nature of an economy. And in most cases (even in the case of the tsunami disaster), the fundamental structures of the affected were not subjected to drastic modifications.
To sum up, the typical pattern following a major crisis is this:
- first, there will be a wave of panic selling when the news breaks.
- Then, there will be a short period of instability,
- followed by an upward sweep once investors realise the crisis itself is not likely to have a long-term effect on the economy.
So, should you find yourself in the midst of a crisis in the future, remember:
- Do not engage in panic selling.
- Sit tight and stick to your strategy.
- If you are a long-term, buy-and-hold investor, do hold on.
- If you are an adventurous investor, follow your strategy to buy on dips.
Make sure your overall portfolio is designed to limit your potential losses during a substantial market decline. This is where you need to invest in many different things.
Ref: Make your Money work for you, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
Investing in the market or in the movements of the market
How do you react to the present market crisis? Would you sell or stay put?
Uncertainty often clouds judgement, sending even the best of us into panic and gloom. But history shows that negative events do not necessarily spell doom for investors.
Historical evidence suggests that most investors can benefit by staying put in a severely sold down market.
Some investors are skilled at anticipating market movements. They would buy on ups and sell on downs. But how many people can do that consistently? (Observe investing here and make your own conclusions: http://fusioninvestor.blogspot.com/ )
The big question for many of us is whether it makes sense to stay invested regardless of market fluctuations. According to a study by Ibbotson & Associates, the anwer is "yes".
They found that a dollar invested in the S&P 500 in 1925 grew to $1371 in 1996. That's a compound annual return of 10.6%. But when the best 35 months (less than 4% of total time invested) were removed from the analysis, the same dollar grew to only $12.50, a compounded annual return of only 3.6%.
$ invested in S&P 500
$1 invested in 1925
Value in 1996 (stay put throughout) $1,371.00
Value in 1996 (minus 35 best months $12.50
So, unless you are confident of accurately predicting the best and worst months for your investment dollar, stay put.
Uncertainty often clouds judgement, sending even the best of us into panic and gloom. But history shows that negative events do not necessarily spell doom for investors.
Historical evidence suggests that most investors can benefit by staying put in a severely sold down market.
Some investors are skilled at anticipating market movements. They would buy on ups and sell on downs. But how many people can do that consistently? (Observe investing here and make your own conclusions: http://fusioninvestor.blogspot.com/ )
The big question for many of us is whether it makes sense to stay invested regardless of market fluctuations. According to a study by Ibbotson & Associates, the anwer is "yes".
They found that a dollar invested in the S&P 500 in 1925 grew to $1371 in 1996. That's a compound annual return of 10.6%. But when the best 35 months (less than 4% of total time invested) were removed from the analysis, the same dollar grew to only $12.50, a compounded annual return of only 3.6%.
$ invested in S&P 500
$1 invested in 1925
Value in 1996 (stay put throughout) $1,371.00
Value in 1996 (minus 35 best months $12.50
So, unless you are confident of accurately predicting the best and worst months for your investment dollar, stay put.
Options versus Futures
Differences.
The purchaser of a futures contract is obligated to buy the underlying asset at the specified price (and the seller of a futures contract is obligated to sell).
The owner of a call option is not obligated to buy unless he wishes to do so; he has the right, but not the obligation.
The buyer of an option has a limited downside, but the buyer of a futures contract doesn't.
Similarities.
Options and futures contracts also share some common features. Both have standardised features that allow them to be traded quickly and "cheaply" on organized exchanges.
Ref: Make Your Money work for you, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
The purchaser of a futures contract is obligated to buy the underlying asset at the specified price (and the seller of a futures contract is obligated to sell).
The owner of a call option is not obligated to buy unless he wishes to do so; he has the right, but not the obligation.
The buyer of an option has a limited downside, but the buyer of a futures contract doesn't.
Similarities.
Options and futures contracts also share some common features. Both have standardised features that allow them to be traded quickly and "cheaply" on organized exchanges.
Ref: Make Your Money work for you, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
Tuesday, 28 October 2008
Returns on buying and selling futures
Participants in futures are either hedgers or speculators.
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Hedgers seek to reduce price uncertainty over some future period.
For example, by purchasing a coffee contract, the coffeeshop owner can hedge and lock in a specific buying price for coffee and be protected from any price increases.
Similarly, sellers can protect themselves from downward price movements too.
The coffee farmer might sell a coffee future contract to hedge against a fall in coffee prices.
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Speculators, on the other hand, seek to profit from the uncertainty that will occur in the future.
If they expect prices to rise, contracts will be purchased, and if they expected prices to fall, they would sell contracts.
Ref: Make Your Money Work For You, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
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Hedgers seek to reduce price uncertainty over some future period.
For example, by purchasing a coffee contract, the coffeeshop owner can hedge and lock in a specific buying price for coffee and be protected from any price increases.
Similarly, sellers can protect themselves from downward price movements too.
The coffee farmer might sell a coffee future contract to hedge against a fall in coffee prices.
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Speculators, on the other hand, seek to profit from the uncertainty that will occur in the future.
If they expect prices to rise, contracts will be purchased, and if they expected prices to fall, they would sell contracts.
Ref: Make Your Money Work For You, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
Option returns
When you buy a call option, you are essentially betting that the price of the underlying common stock will rise, making the call option more valuable.
Conversely, put buyers are betting that the price of the underlying common stock will decline, making the put option more valuable.
Returns are only in the form of capital gains.
Since you do not own the stock but only the right, dividends paid on the underlying stock do not benefit you.
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The seller receives a fee called an option premium for selling you a call or put.
Once an option is created and the seller receives the premium from the buyer, it can be traded in the secondary market.
The premium is the market price of the derivative, and the price will fluctuate along with changes in the underlying common stock.
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Put and calls allow both buyers and sellers to speculate on the short-term movements of common stocks.
Buyers obtain an option on the common stock for a small, known premium.
This known premium is the maximum that the buyer can lose.
If the buyer is correct about the price movements of the common stock, capital gains are magnified because only a small investment is committed.
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There are two particularly important types of derivatives - options and futures.
Many other types exist, but they can usually be created from these two basic building blocks, possibly by combining them with all sorts of other investment assets including stocka and bonds, stock indexes, gold and commodities such as wheat and corn.
Ref: Make your money work for you, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
Conversely, put buyers are betting that the price of the underlying common stock will decline, making the put option more valuable.
Returns are only in the form of capital gains.
Since you do not own the stock but only the right, dividends paid on the underlying stock do not benefit you.
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The seller receives a fee called an option premium for selling you a call or put.
Once an option is created and the seller receives the premium from the buyer, it can be traded in the secondary market.
The premium is the market price of the derivative, and the price will fluctuate along with changes in the underlying common stock.
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Put and calls allow both buyers and sellers to speculate on the short-term movements of common stocks.
Buyers obtain an option on the common stock for a small, known premium.
This known premium is the maximum that the buyer can lose.
If the buyer is correct about the price movements of the common stock, capital gains are magnified because only a small investment is committed.
-----------
There are two particularly important types of derivatives - options and futures.
Many other types exist, but they can usually be created from these two basic building blocks, possibly by combining them with all sorts of other investment assets including stocka and bonds, stock indexes, gold and commodities such as wheat and corn.
Ref: Make your money work for you, by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
Derivatives - options and futures
Stocks and bonds are financial assets.
A derivative is also a financial asset but it differs from stocks in one fundamental way: the value of the derivative is based on the performance of an underlying financial asset that you do not own.
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Options
Options are one of the most common types of derivative.
There are 2 main types of options - calls and puts.
A call option gives the buyer the right but not the obligation, to purchase a specified number of shares of a particular stock at a particular price (called the exercise price) within a specified time frame.
A put option does the reverse - it gives the buyer the right but not the obligation, to sell a specified number of shares of a particular stock at a specified price within a specified time frame.
A definite advantage for the buyer of an option - whether a call or a put option - is that there is no obligation to exercise the option.
A simple example of a call option.
Suppose that you want to own 1,000 Microsoft shares at $30 each.
If you are fortunate enough to have this large amount of money ($30,000) at hand, you can pay up right away and own the shares.
But suppose you do not have this sum of money to invest directly, and your roommate is willing to sell you the right to buy the 1,000 shares at $30,000 each. For this right, he will charge you a fee of $1,500 and this right lasts three months. In effect, your roommate has sold you a call option.
If you buy the call option, the value of your investment now depends on the underlying asset - the share price of Microsoft.
If the price of Microsoft goes up, so does the value your call option.
If the price of Microsoft goes down, your derivative falls in value.
When you buy a call option, you pay the seller $1,500 for the right, but not the obligation, to buy the shares at $30,000.
If you change your mind because you found a better deal elsewhere, you can just walk away. You will only lose $1,500, which is called the option premium.
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Futures
Suppose a coffeeshop owner wants to buy 5 metric tons (mt) of Robusta coffee in six months, and he worries that the price of coffee might increase threefold by that time.
One thing he can do now is to strike a deal today with a farmer whereby he promises to pay, say, $1,000 per mt in 6 months' time for 5 mt of coffee. In other words, the coffeeshop owner and the farmer agree that 6 months from now, the coffeeshop owner will exchange $5,000 for 5 mt of coffee.
The agreement that they have created is a futures contract.
With the futures contract, both the coffeeshop owner and the farmer have locked in the price of coffee six months from now.
Suppose that coffee is selling for $1,500 per mt in 6 months' time. If this happens, then the coffeeshop owner would have benefited from having entered into the futures contract.
However, if the coffee sells for only $700 per mt then, he would have made a loss of $1,500, because he is forced by contract to pay $1,000 per mt.
A futures contract is therefore a bet on the future price of whatever is being bought or sold.
An important feature of traded futures contracts is that they are standardised, meaning each contract calls for the purchase of a specific quantity of a particular underlying asset.
The contract specifies in detail what the underlying asset is and where it is to be delivered.
For example, with a Robusta coffee contract, the contrct would specify that a specified quantity of a particular type of coffee will be delivered at one of a few approved locations on a particular date in exchange for the agreed-upon futures price.
A derivative is also a financial asset but it differs from stocks in one fundamental way: the value of the derivative is based on the performance of an underlying financial asset that you do not own.
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Options
Options are one of the most common types of derivative.
There are 2 main types of options - calls and puts.
A call option gives the buyer the right but not the obligation, to purchase a specified number of shares of a particular stock at a particular price (called the exercise price) within a specified time frame.
A put option does the reverse - it gives the buyer the right but not the obligation, to sell a specified number of shares of a particular stock at a specified price within a specified time frame.
A definite advantage for the buyer of an option - whether a call or a put option - is that there is no obligation to exercise the option.
A simple example of a call option.
Suppose that you want to own 1,000 Microsoft shares at $30 each.
If you are fortunate enough to have this large amount of money ($30,000) at hand, you can pay up right away and own the shares.
But suppose you do not have this sum of money to invest directly, and your roommate is willing to sell you the right to buy the 1,000 shares at $30,000 each. For this right, he will charge you a fee of $1,500 and this right lasts three months. In effect, your roommate has sold you a call option.
If you buy the call option, the value of your investment now depends on the underlying asset - the share price of Microsoft.
If the price of Microsoft goes up, so does the value your call option.
If the price of Microsoft goes down, your derivative falls in value.
When you buy a call option, you pay the seller $1,500 for the right, but not the obligation, to buy the shares at $30,000.
If you change your mind because you found a better deal elsewhere, you can just walk away. You will only lose $1,500, which is called the option premium.
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Futures
Suppose a coffeeshop owner wants to buy 5 metric tons (mt) of Robusta coffee in six months, and he worries that the price of coffee might increase threefold by that time.
One thing he can do now is to strike a deal today with a farmer whereby he promises to pay, say, $1,000 per mt in 6 months' time for 5 mt of coffee. In other words, the coffeeshop owner and the farmer agree that 6 months from now, the coffeeshop owner will exchange $5,000 for 5 mt of coffee.
The agreement that they have created is a futures contract.
With the futures contract, both the coffeeshop owner and the farmer have locked in the price of coffee six months from now.
Suppose that coffee is selling for $1,500 per mt in 6 months' time. If this happens, then the coffeeshop owner would have benefited from having entered into the futures contract.
However, if the coffee sells for only $700 per mt then, he would have made a loss of $1,500, because he is forced by contract to pay $1,000 per mt.
A futures contract is therefore a bet on the future price of whatever is being bought or sold.
An important feature of traded futures contracts is that they are standardised, meaning each contract calls for the purchase of a specific quantity of a particular underlying asset.
The contract specifies in detail what the underlying asset is and where it is to be delivered.
For example, with a Robusta coffee contract, the contrct would specify that a specified quantity of a particular type of coffee will be delivered at one of a few approved locations on a particular date in exchange for the agreed-upon futures price.
Returns from Investment
Stock returns
The returns from owning stocks come from 2 sources.
Cash dividends are earnings that are distributed to shareholders. (Unlike bonds, stocks do not guarantee the timing or the amount of dividends).
At any time, they can be increased, decreased or taken away altogether.
The other source of returns is capital gains. This is the main reason people buy stocks.
The value of your stock may rise when the earning prospects of the company are favourable.
And of course, your shares may also lose value if the company performs poorly.
Bond returns
The returns from owning a fixed-income security come in two forms.
There are the fixed interest payments and the final payment of principal at maturity.
Secondly, there is the potential for capital gains when you sell a bond before its maturity at a price higher than when you purchased it.
Imagine a see-saw. The price of a bond rises when the interest rates fall, and there is thus the possibility of a capital gain from a favourable movement in rates. Of course, inversely, a rise in interest rates will produce a loss.
Money market returns
Money market investments maintain a stable value, pay interest and can easily be converted into cash.
Of the three types of investments, money market instruments pay the lowest rate of return.
So why bother with them?
For the same reason that you leave large chunks of your uninvested money in fixed deposit - safety.
When you buy a money market investment, you are pretty sure you will get your money back with some interest.
The chances of losing money - whether from the government or the bank defaulting on its payment or a loss in principal value of the investment - are very low.
When you invest in a money market investment, you are taking very little risk and your expected return should reflect the amount of risk that you have taken.
When is a money market investment appropriate? When you need to use the money in a year or so, and you want to know that the money will be there with few surprises.
The returns from owning stocks come from 2 sources.
Cash dividends are earnings that are distributed to shareholders. (Unlike bonds, stocks do not guarantee the timing or the amount of dividends).
At any time, they can be increased, decreased or taken away altogether.
The other source of returns is capital gains. This is the main reason people buy stocks.
The value of your stock may rise when the earning prospects of the company are favourable.
And of course, your shares may also lose value if the company performs poorly.
Bond returns
The returns from owning a fixed-income security come in two forms.
There are the fixed interest payments and the final payment of principal at maturity.
Secondly, there is the potential for capital gains when you sell a bond before its maturity at a price higher than when you purchased it.
Imagine a see-saw. The price of a bond rises when the interest rates fall, and there is thus the possibility of a capital gain from a favourable movement in rates. Of course, inversely, a rise in interest rates will produce a loss.
Money market returns
Money market investments maintain a stable value, pay interest and can easily be converted into cash.
Of the three types of investments, money market instruments pay the lowest rate of return.
So why bother with them?
For the same reason that you leave large chunks of your uninvested money in fixed deposit - safety.
When you buy a money market investment, you are pretty sure you will get your money back with some interest.
The chances of losing money - whether from the government or the bank defaulting on its payment or a loss in principal value of the investment - are very low.
When you invest in a money market investment, you are taking very little risk and your expected return should reflect the amount of risk that you have taken.
When is a money market investment appropriate? When you need to use the money in a year or so, and you want to know that the money will be there with few surprises.
Risks of Investments
Stock risk.
As a group, stocks generally move up and down in value more than any other type of investment in the short-term.
People are usually afraid of purchasing stocks because they hear about bear markets, corporate scandals and stock market crashes.
But this should be a concern only to investors who need their money back within a few years.
In fact, over the longer-term, you stand a greater risk of losing money if you don't invest in stock.
Unlike money market securities, stocks are high risk investments in the short-term but are lower risk investments in the long term.
Bond risk.
Besides interest rate risk, bonds have default risk.
Default risk refers to the possibility that the borrower will not make the promised payments.
This risk is almost non-existent for government bonds, but for many other issuers such as private companies, the risk of default is very real.
Money market risk.
Beware of inflation.
The longer you leave your money in fixed deposit, the higher the risk of inflation eating away the purchasing power of your money.
Money market investments are safest when the money is needed in the short-term.
The very same safe investments become high risk the longer they stay invested.
Stocks are on the opposite track. They are high risk investments in the short-term, but are lower risk investments in the long term:
Fixed deposit
1yr = Low risk 10 yrs = High risk
Stocks
1 yr = High risk 10 yrs = Low risk
As a group, stocks generally move up and down in value more than any other type of investment in the short-term.
People are usually afraid of purchasing stocks because they hear about bear markets, corporate scandals and stock market crashes.
But this should be a concern only to investors who need their money back within a few years.
In fact, over the longer-term, you stand a greater risk of losing money if you don't invest in stock.
Unlike money market securities, stocks are high risk investments in the short-term but are lower risk investments in the long term.
Bond risk.
Besides interest rate risk, bonds have default risk.
Default risk refers to the possibility that the borrower will not make the promised payments.
This risk is almost non-existent for government bonds, but for many other issuers such as private companies, the risk of default is very real.
Money market risk.
Beware of inflation.
The longer you leave your money in fixed deposit, the higher the risk of inflation eating away the purchasing power of your money.
Money market investments are safest when the money is needed in the short-term.
The very same safe investments become high risk the longer they stay invested.
Stocks are on the opposite track. They are high risk investments in the short-term, but are lower risk investments in the long term:
Fixed deposit
1yr = Low risk 10 yrs = High risk
Stocks
1 yr = High risk 10 yrs = Low risk
Major types of Investments
Major types of Investments
Main types
1. Stocks or equities
2. Bonds or fixed income securities
3. Money market investments
Derivatives
1. Options
2. Futures
Unit trusts
1. Money market funds
2. Bond funds
3. Equity funds
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Bonds or fixed income securities
Bonds are loans issued by companies and governments to borrow money, and they have two main characteristics:
1. They have lifespan greater than 12 months at the time of issue.
2. They typically promise to make fixed interest payments according to a given schedule.
Bonds are hence also called fixed income securities.
Bonds have their own unique terms: Suppose you buy bonds with a face value of $10,000. These bonds mature in 2 years and pay 4% interest annually. The 4% interest equates to $400 a year. The face value of the bond, or the principal amount of $10,000 will be returned to you when the bond matures in 2 years.
-----------------------
Money market securities
Money market securities are similar to bonds except that they are short-term investments. They have two main characteristics:
1. They are loans issued by companies and government to borrow money.
2. They mature in less than a year from the time they are sold, which means that the loan must be repaid within a year.
Some of the most common money market securities include
Main types
1. Stocks or equities
2. Bonds or fixed income securities
3. Money market investments
Derivatives
1. Options
2. Futures
Unit trusts
1. Money market funds
2. Bond funds
3. Equity funds
---------
Bonds or fixed income securities
Bonds are loans issued by companies and governments to borrow money, and they have two main characteristics:
1. They have lifespan greater than 12 months at the time of issue.
2. They typically promise to make fixed interest payments according to a given schedule.
Bonds are hence also called fixed income securities.
Bonds have their own unique terms: Suppose you buy bonds with a face value of $10,000. These bonds mature in 2 years and pay 4% interest annually. The 4% interest equates to $400 a year. The face value of the bond, or the principal amount of $10,000 will be returned to you when the bond matures in 2 years.
-----------------------
Money market securities
Money market securities are similar to bonds except that they are short-term investments. They have two main characteristics:
1. They are loans issued by companies and government to borrow money.
2. They mature in less than a year from the time they are sold, which means that the loan must be repaid within a year.
Some of the most common money market securities include
- Treasury Bills (issued by the government and considered the safest investments around),
- fixed deposits,
- bank savings accounts and
- certificates of deposits.
----------------
Properties
The outright ownership of real estate has long been considered as a sound long-term investment, carrying with it a goodly amount of protection against inflation.
Unfortunately, real-estate values are also subject to wide fluctuations; serious erros can be made in location, price paid, etc.; there are pitfalls in salesmen's wiles.
Finally, diversification is not practical for the investor of moderate means, except by various types of participations with others and with the special hazards that attach to new floatations.
This too is a field not without risk. As the usual advice given to investors: "Be sure it's yours before you go into it."
Unfortunately, real-estate values are also subject to wide fluctuations; serious erros can be made in location, price paid, etc.; there are pitfalls in salesmen's wiles.
Finally, diversification is not practical for the investor of moderate means, except by various types of participations with others and with the special hazards that attach to new floatations.
This too is a field not without risk. As the usual advice given to investors: "Be sure it's yours before you go into it."
Monday, 27 October 2008
Managing gold in your portfolio
Managing gold in your portfolio
Gold has an extensive history of maintaining its value. Still, gold like all investments involve risk. Gold prices have historically seen strong fluctuations.
One reason for fluctuating prices is that the value of a bullion coin or a gold unit trust is directly affected by the current spot or market price of bullion. This price fluctuates daily and can be affected by a multitude of factors such as the perceived scarcity of gold, current demand, market sentiment and economic factors. Therefore, the price of your gold investment can go down as well as up in value.
Second, like all prices, the gold price reflects not only the inherent value of gold, but also the relative strengths of the currency in which it is quoted. For example, the dollar price of gold may increase more in percentage terms than the sterling price, to the extent that the change in price is a reflection of dollar weakness (in this case, against sterling) rather than an intrinsic change in gold market fundamentals. So if you purchase a gold investment in US dollars and the US dollar has increased by 20% by the time you sell it 12 months later, your investment would have fallen in value by 20% - regardless of any change in gold market fundamentals.
The strength of the US dollar during the two decades between 1980 and 2000 was an important reason why the gold price did not perform well during those years. It was in part the rapid rise in the dollar that hurt the dollar gold price. Another reason for gold's poor performance between 1980 and 2000 was the success of the world's central bankers in fighting inflation. Gold's role as a hedge againts inflation can be one of the main reasons that people buy it.
Despite the volatility of gold prices and its sensitivity to fundamental factors, the diversification benefits of gold in a portfolio are backed by strong evidence. Ibbotson Associates, a leading authority on asset allocation, performed a study with respect to the portfolio diversification benefits of gold, silver and platinum bullion covering a 33 year period from February 1971 to December 2004. Ibbotson determined that of the seven types of assets covered in the study, the precious metals asset class is the only one with a negative correlation to other asset classes. What this means is that precious metals perform best during the years that traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds had negative returns. Ibbotson determined that investors can potentially improve their portfolio risk-reward performance by including precious metals with allocations of between 7.1% and 15.7% for conservative to aggressive portfolios respectively.
Historically, gold has produced excellent long-term gains during up cycles; however, it may not be suitable for everyone. You should acquire a good understanding of gold products before you invest. Since all investments including gold can decline in value, you should have adequate cash reserves and disposable income before considering a precious metal investment.
In the end, speculating in gold should be avoided at all cost by most conservative investors. Speculting involves short-term trading and the early withdrawal from accounts or securities can result in substantial penalties or fees - in addition to any decrease in gold prices due to fundamental factors.
Ref: Make Money Work For You by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
Gold has an extensive history of maintaining its value. Still, gold like all investments involve risk. Gold prices have historically seen strong fluctuations.
One reason for fluctuating prices is that the value of a bullion coin or a gold unit trust is directly affected by the current spot or market price of bullion. This price fluctuates daily and can be affected by a multitude of factors such as the perceived scarcity of gold, current demand, market sentiment and economic factors. Therefore, the price of your gold investment can go down as well as up in value.
Second, like all prices, the gold price reflects not only the inherent value of gold, but also the relative strengths of the currency in which it is quoted. For example, the dollar price of gold may increase more in percentage terms than the sterling price, to the extent that the change in price is a reflection of dollar weakness (in this case, against sterling) rather than an intrinsic change in gold market fundamentals. So if you purchase a gold investment in US dollars and the US dollar has increased by 20% by the time you sell it 12 months later, your investment would have fallen in value by 20% - regardless of any change in gold market fundamentals.
The strength of the US dollar during the two decades between 1980 and 2000 was an important reason why the gold price did not perform well during those years. It was in part the rapid rise in the dollar that hurt the dollar gold price. Another reason for gold's poor performance between 1980 and 2000 was the success of the world's central bankers in fighting inflation. Gold's role as a hedge againts inflation can be one of the main reasons that people buy it.
Despite the volatility of gold prices and its sensitivity to fundamental factors, the diversification benefits of gold in a portfolio are backed by strong evidence. Ibbotson Associates, a leading authority on asset allocation, performed a study with respect to the portfolio diversification benefits of gold, silver and platinum bullion covering a 33 year period from February 1971 to December 2004. Ibbotson determined that of the seven types of assets covered in the study, the precious metals asset class is the only one with a negative correlation to other asset classes. What this means is that precious metals perform best during the years that traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds had negative returns. Ibbotson determined that investors can potentially improve their portfolio risk-reward performance by including precious metals with allocations of between 7.1% and 15.7% for conservative to aggressive portfolios respectively.
Historically, gold has produced excellent long-term gains during up cycles; however, it may not be suitable for everyone. You should acquire a good understanding of gold products before you invest. Since all investments including gold can decline in value, you should have adequate cash reserves and disposable income before considering a precious metal investment.
In the end, speculating in gold should be avoided at all cost by most conservative investors. Speculting involves short-term trading and the early withdrawal from accounts or securities can result in substantial penalties or fees - in addition to any decrease in gold prices due to fundamental factors.
Ref: Make Money Work For You by Keon Chee & Ben Fok
How to invest in gold?
How to invest in gold?
Investors who wish to invest in gold can do so in 5 ways:
1. Gold bullion bars and coins
2. Gold certificates
3. Gold mining shares
4. Gold unit trusts
5. Gold derivatives
Prices for all these investment options are available daily from banks and brokerages.
Investors who wish to invest in gold can do so in 5 ways:
1. Gold bullion bars and coins
2. Gold certificates
3. Gold mining shares
4. Gold unit trusts
5. Gold derivatives
Prices for all these investment options are available daily from banks and brokerages.
Buy gold!
The standard policy of people all over the world who mistrust their currency has been to buy and hold gold.
--------
Here are some historical data from Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham:
The price of gold in the open market rose from $35 per ounce over 35 years to $48 in early 1972 - a rise of only 35%. But during all this time, the holder of gold received no income return on his capital, and instead incurred some annual expense from storage. Obviously, between 1937 - 1972, money earning interest in a saving bank, in spite of the rise in the general price level, was better than investing in gold.
It was obvious that during that period, the near-complete failure of gold to protect against a loss in the purchasing power of the dollar must cast doubt on the ability of the ordinary investor to protect himself against inflation by putting his money in either gold or "other things."
Very few readers will find the swimming safe and easy investing in gold.
----------
There were others who pointed out that there were years when gold showed robust ability to outpace inflation. A tiny allocation to this metal (say, 2% of your total assets) is too small to hurt your overall returns when gold does poorly. But when gold does well, its return are often so spectacular - sometimes exceeding 100%.
---------
--------
Here are some historical data from Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham:
The price of gold in the open market rose from $35 per ounce over 35 years to $48 in early 1972 - a rise of only 35%. But during all this time, the holder of gold received no income return on his capital, and instead incurred some annual expense from storage. Obviously, between 1937 - 1972, money earning interest in a saving bank, in spite of the rise in the general price level, was better than investing in gold.
It was obvious that during that period, the near-complete failure of gold to protect against a loss in the purchasing power of the dollar must cast doubt on the ability of the ordinary investor to protect himself against inflation by putting his money in either gold or "other things."
Very few readers will find the swimming safe and easy investing in gold.
----------
There were others who pointed out that there were years when gold showed robust ability to outpace inflation. A tiny allocation to this metal (say, 2% of your total assets) is too small to hurt your overall returns when gold does poorly. But when gold does well, its return are often so spectacular - sometimes exceeding 100%.
---------
Sunday, 26 October 2008
Bargains abound in the stock markets
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
In conclusion, we received a plethora of questions regarding the quote we used last week from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that there are currently one in ten listed companies trading for less than the value of the cash and marketable securities on their balance sheets. To proof test this statement we ran a similar screen and found more companies than the WSJ did. Of course the screen they must have used was similar to ours in that “net debt” on the balance sheet was excluded. When we included “net debt” we come away with a much smaller number. Still, this exercise goes to show that “things” are overdone on the downside and people like Warren Buffett are taking notice. Verily, when investors en masse attempt to adjust their portfolios toward more conservative investments, there is a negative feedback loop that leads to a decline in the price of less liquid assets, which in turn begets even more selling pressure, causing an overshoot on the downside. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is where we are currently.
----------
P.S. – “Strikingly, today’s conditions bear quite a close resemblance to what Graham described in the abyss of the Great Depression. Regardless of how much further it might (or might not) drop, the stock market now abounds with so many bargains it’s hard to avoid stepping on them. Out of 9,194 stocks tracked by Standard & Poor’s Compustat research service, 3,518 are now trading at less than eight times their earnings over the past year – or at levels less than half the long-term average valuation of the stock market as a whole. Nearly one in 10, or 876 stocks, trade below the value of their per-share holdings of cash – an even greater proportion than Graham found in 1932.” (The WSJ the week of October 6, 2008.)
In conclusion, we received a plethora of questions regarding the quote we used last week from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that there are currently one in ten listed companies trading for less than the value of the cash and marketable securities on their balance sheets. To proof test this statement we ran a similar screen and found more companies than the WSJ did. Of course the screen they must have used was similar to ours in that “net debt” on the balance sheet was excluded. When we included “net debt” we come away with a much smaller number. Still, this exercise goes to show that “things” are overdone on the downside and people like Warren Buffett are taking notice. Verily, when investors en masse attempt to adjust their portfolios toward more conservative investments, there is a negative feedback loop that leads to a decline in the price of less liquid assets, which in turn begets even more selling pressure, causing an overshoot on the downside. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is where we are currently.
----------
P.S. – “Strikingly, today’s conditions bear quite a close resemblance to what Graham described in the abyss of the Great Depression. Regardless of how much further it might (or might not) drop, the stock market now abounds with so many bargains it’s hard to avoid stepping on them. Out of 9,194 stocks tracked by Standard & Poor’s Compustat research service, 3,518 are now trading at less than eight times their earnings over the past year – or at levels less than half the long-term average valuation of the stock market as a whole. Nearly one in 10, or 876 stocks, trade below the value of their per-share holdings of cash – an even greater proportion than Graham found in 1932.” (The WSJ the week of October 6, 2008.)
Ref:
Business Valuations versus Stock-Market Valuations (2) - an illustration
"The company is worth more dead than alive." The A&P Example
Saturday, 25 October 2008
The Investor and Market Fluctuations - Summary
Summary:
- The most realistic distinction between the investor and the speculator is found in their attitude toward stock market movements.
- The speculator's primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from the market fluctuations.
- The investor's primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices.
- Market movements are important to the investor in a practical sense, because they alternatively create low price levels at which he would be wise to buy and high price levels at which he certainly should refrain from buying and probably would be wise to sell.
- It is far from certain that the typical investor should regularly hold off buying until low market levels appear, because this may involve a long wait, very likely the loss of income, and the possible missing of investment opportunities.
- On the whole, it may be better for the investor to do his stock buying whenever he has money to put in stocks, EXCEPT when the general market level is much higher than can be justified by well-established standards of value.
- If he wants to be shrewd, he can look for the ever present bargain opportunities in individual securities.
- Aside from forecasting the movements of the general market, much effort and ability are dircted on Wall Street toward selecting stocks or industrial groups that in matter of price will "do better" than the rest over a FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD IN THE FUTURE. Logical as this endeavor may seem, we do not believe it is suited to the needs or temperament of the true investor - particularly since he would be competing with a large number of stock market traders and first class financial analysts who are trying to do the same thing.
- As in all other activities that emphasize price movements first and underlying values second, the work of many intelligent minds constantly engaged in this field tends to be self-neutralizing and self-defeating over the years.
- The investor with a portfolio of sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizeable declines nor become excited by sizable advances. He should always remember that market quotations are there for his convenience, either to be taken advantage of or to be ignored.
- The investor should never buy a stock BECAUSE it has gone up or sell one BECAUSE it has gone down.
- The investor would not be far wrong, if this motto read more simply: "Never buy a stock immediately after a substantial rise or sell one immediately after a substantial drop."
An Added Consideration.
- The shareholder judges whether his own investment has been successful in terms both of dividends received and of the long-range trend of the average market value.
- The same criteria should logically be applied in testing the effectiveness of a company's management and the soundness of its attitude toward the owners of the business.
- For as yet, there is no accepted technique or approach by which management is brought to the bar of market opinion. On the contrary, managements have always insisted that they have no responsibility OF ANY KIND for what happens to the market value of their share.
- It is true, of course, that they are NOT accountable for those FLUCTUATIONS in price which, bear no relationship to underlying conditions and values.
- But it is only the lack of alertness and intelligence among the rank and file of shareholders that permits this immunity to extend to the entire realm of market quotations, including the permanent establishment of a depreciated and unsatisfactory price level. (This is now known as "corporate governance."
- Good managements produce a good average market price, and bad managements produce bad market prices.
Ref:
The Investor and Market Fluctuations in Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
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