Malaysia a stock-pickers’ market

Malaysia a stock-pickers’ market

Tags: Deutsche Bank | Stock-pickers | Valuations

Written by Financial Daily
Friday, 16 October 2009 11:23

THIS is the continuation of a report by Deutsche Bank which appeared yesterday. This last part of the report looks at the challenging valuations and the stock picks in Malaysia.

Overshadowed by Asean markets
Still expensive — does not deserve a premium rating
Structural and political challenges aside, the market’s near-term obstacle is its stretched valuation. The market is currently trading at a 3%-11% premium to the region at 17.7x and 15.2x PER 2009E and 2010E, respectively.

This appears to be at the upper end of the market’s post-Asian crisis valuation range of 12.5-18x forward PER. On a P/B basis, the market is trading at 2-2.1x for the same period, again at a 5%-11% premium against the region.

Within an Asean context, Malaysia trades at the highest PER valuation and offers the second lowest, after Indonesia, net dividend yield at 3% for 2010.

Not surprising then that Indonesia and Thailand have both enjoyed net fund inflows given a combination of attractive valuations (Thailand at 11.5x PER 2010 and Indonesia at 13.8x PER) and strong revision ratios.

In fact, despite mixed political news flow in Thailand, the market continues to maintain a high level of foreign ownership at c. 33% (vs 21% in Malaysia). The positive news is that earnings risk has abated since 1Q.

However, in a regional context, Malaysia is in sharp contrast to say a market like Korea where earnings revision has been strong. Malaysia lags in EPS and target price revision momentum. This clearly explains why the market is still placed in the region’s low beta “bucket”.


Significant improvement in 2Q; earnings expectations raised
Of the 21 Deutsche Bank-covered stocks which reported, 61% were in line with expectations, 29% above and 10% below. The results were far better than the first quarter.


Financial sector came through unscathed — positive; PLANTATION [] sector rebounds
The star of the reporting season was the banking sector. Most of the banks reported stronger-than-expected earnings driven largely by higher non-interest income and lower loan loss provisions. Again, this tells us that the Malaysian credit cycle is turning out to be less severe than anticipated.

The plantation sector too had a reasonable quarter after what was a very weak 1Q production season given the effects of severe floods in East Malaysia. 2Q was supported by stronger CPO prices and production lifting, though marginal.

The gaming companies did not have a weak quarter as many had originally expected. Domestic consumption trends held up. There was slight weakness in results from companies like DiGi.Com (RM21.66, hold, target price RM19.80) which had the slowest quarter in more than six years) and KNM (75 sen, buy, target price RM1.10) which faced margin pressure.

The trajectory for earnings recovery is now far more convincing after the 2Q reporting season. We believe the lumpy writedowns as a result of diminution in value of major investments are now largely behind the market. Leading indicators in the economy have also been encouraging with a bottoming in industrial production, electricity sales, and loan approval and applications.


Post-2Q results: EPS growth at -8.6% and 17% for 2009 and 2010
Prior to the reporting season, we were forecasting EPS growth of -7.1% for 2009 and 9.9% for 2010, respectively. Today, these forecasts have been revised to -8.6% and 17.4%, respectively. The stronger growth outlook for 2010 was largely due to EPS revisions for the financial, plantation, CONSTRUCTION [] and gaming sectors.


Domestic liquidity; top-down index target suggests 13% upside
Domestic funds like the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and PNB have been actively buying in the market, especially where foreign interest has waned. This explains why foreign ownership in the market has stayed flat at around 20%-21% despite the recovery in the market.

This trend is likely to persist in the near term, thereby keeping market valuations lofty. Our 12-month bottom-up index target for Deutsche Bank’s universe of stocks suggests an MSCI target of 453 (0.4% upside) and an FBM KLCI target of 1,213 (+0.4%). This compares against the consensus bottom-up target of 1,234, which suggests upside of 2.2%. We believe the key difference between the Street and our estimates is our slightly more conservative view on GDP growth estimates, currently at -3% and 4% for 2009 and 2010, respectively.

Putting this in the context of Asia, our regional strategist, Niklas Olausson, expects MSCI Asia ex-Japan to reach 522, suggesting upside of 18.2%.

With most markets expected to offer upside of more than 15%, Malaysia is naturally an underweight, along with Hong Kong, India, and the Philippines. The implied top-down valuation of 17.2x 2010 PER is at the upper end of Malaysia’s historical trading range. By using our bottom-up approach, with an implied valuation of 15.3x PER, this puts Malaysia in the “fair” territory, the mid-range of its post-Asian crisis PER band.


Local news flow can drive interest in the market despite demanding valuations
There have been times when the market outperforms the region momentarily on domestic news flow, ignoring valuations. In recent years, market-friendly initiatives, such as the first stage of GLC restructuring, have ushered renewed interest in the market.

Similarly, the property market liberalisation in 2007 prompted a re-rating of the smaller- to mid-cap sectors. We think a similar re-rating is likely to occur if and only when the market is convinced of three key issues.

First, that Barisan Nasional is gaining traction with the voter base, hence providing the market with renewed confidence that the corporate landscape or regulatory environment does not run the risk of significant changes under a new party. Secondly, sustainable signs that structural changes made are bearing fruit. Thirdly, potential sizeable new listings to force attention back into Malaysia, as discussed earlier.


Positioning into the final quarter of 2009/early 2010
We believe most would agree that Malaysia has been a difficult market for most of 2009. Often the market has been referred to as “Asia’s rounding error”, “Asia’s lost child” and “Asia’s most unloved market”, etc. And indeed it has been the worst-performing market in Asia ex-Japan year to date. (My comment:  Probably the best piece of news in this article.)

But we also argue that it does not mean the entire market is a write-off. Far from it, we believe. In fact, Malaysia has always been a stock-pickers’ market. We believe it is important to select stocks for the final quarter of 2009 or early 2010 with the following pointers in mind:

• To focus on companies with growth prospects outside Malaysia, and especially those with an increasingly strong Asean/regional footprint; for example CIMB, Genting and IJM Corp.

• To focus on companies that have structurally transformed themselves by utilising improved systems and infrastructure to take advantage of a more robust economic environment next year; for example, AMMB.

• Returns being the priority of top management and having the ability to execute on the plans. Many Malaysian companies place significant emphasis on enhancing shareholders’ return but very few actually execute on them with a structured plan. Companies that have articulated their returns policies, and where we have a high degree of comfort of execution are Public Bank (though a hold), KL Kepong (has consistently paid 50% dividend payout ratio in the last four years) and CIMB.

• To focus on companies that continue to generate strong cash flows and are still dominant in their industry, ideally not heavily reliant on the domestic market for growth; for example KLK.

• Avoid companies that are heavily reliant on government contracts — political news flow is likely to stay volatile in the near term.

• Quality stocks tend to hold their valuation premiums, defying fundamentals at times — largely due to scarcity reasons and often, liquidity. These include companies such as Public Bank, IJM Corp and IOI Corp (RM5.21, hold, target price RM5.05).


Risks to our underweight call on the market:
The biggest risks to our Underweight call on the market fall into three areas.

The first risk is better-than-expected macro indicators as a result of the second stimulus package and improvements in domestic consumption trends. The second risk is that market liberalisation/structural change measures surprise the market. The last risk is a sudden collapse in neighbouring markets, such as Indonesia, prompting a sudden surge of liquidity into low-beta markets such as Malaysia.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, October 16, 2009.

Latexx 17.10.2009

Valuation
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tGjkSMyCWNewTHtuEfqzoVg&output=html

Its latest quarterly Q2 '09 result:
qtr EPS = 5.86 sen
annualised EPS = 4 x 5.86 = 23.44 sen

At today's price of $2.40, its PE (based on annualised EPS)
= 2.40/0.2344
= 10.24

Latexx is the 5th largest glove company in Malaysia.  Given its relatively smaller size, its growth is anticipated to be faster than the bigger glove companies (Topglove, Supermax) in the next 2 years. 

Kossan's share price is playing catch-up with the other companies PE valuations. 

Hartalega appears richly valued at its present price and market capitalization.

Hai-O 17.10.2009

Valuation
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t44jTv4fYF_pLfGhtHJN8aA&output=html

This share has done well the last 2 years.  It is a multi-bagger. 

Patience and confidence go hand in hand with successful investing.

As you invest in your personal portfolio in the next few months, always remember your long-term focus. Build wealth in the stock market over a five-year and longer horizon. Patience and confidence go hand in hand with successful investing.

Behavior of the Stock Market

The behavior of Stock Market and the prices of stocks depend greatly on the speculation of the investors. So, over- reactions and wrong speculation can give rise to irrational behavior of the Stock Market. Excessive optimistic speculation of future prospects can raise the prices of stocks to an extreme high and excessive pessimism on the part of the investors can result in extremely low prices. Stock Market behavior is also affected by the psychology of “Group Thinking”. The thinking of a majority group of people many times influences others to think in the same line and the Stock Market behavior gets naturally affected.

Sometimes the Stock Market behavior is affected by rumors and mass panic. The prices of the stocks fluctuate tremendously by the economic use even if it has nothing to do with values of stocks and securities.

So, it is extremely difficult to make predictions about the Stock Market and the inexperienced investors who are not that much interested in financial analysis of stocks; rarely get the financial assistance from the Stock Market at the time of need.

Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says


By Shigeki Nozawa

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may drop to 50 yen next year and eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.’s chief strategist said, citing trading patterns and a likely double dip in the U.S. economy.

“The U.S. economy will deteriorate into 2011 as the effects of excess consumption and the financial bubble linger,” said Daisuke Uno at Sumitomo Mitsui, a unit of Japan’s third- biggest bank. “The dollar’s fall won’t stop until there’s a change to the global currency system.”

The dollar last week dropped to the lowest in almost a year against the yen as record U.S. government borrowings and interest rates near zero sapped demand for the U.S. currency. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, has fallen 15 percent from its peak this year to as low as 75.211 today, the lowest since August 2008.

The gauge is about five points away from its record low in March 2008, and the dollar is 2.5 percent away from a 14-year low against the yen.

“We can no longer stop the big wave of dollar weakness,” said Uno, who correctly predicted the dollar would fall under 100 yen and the Dow Jones Industrial Average would sink below 7,000 after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last year. If the U.S. currency breaks through record levels, “there will be no downside limit, and even coordinated intervention won’t work,” he said.

China, India, Brazil and Russia this year called for a replacement to the dollar as the main reserve currency. Hossein Ghazavi, Iran’s deputy central bank chief, said on Sept. 13 the euro has overtaken the dollar as the main currency of Iran’s foreign reserves.

Elliott Wave

The greenback is heading for the trough of a super-cycle that started in August 1971, Uno said, referring to the Elliot Wave theory, which holds that market swings follow a predictable five-stage pattern of three steps forward, two steps back.

The dollar is now at wave five of the 40-year cycle, Uno said. It dropped to 92 yen during wave one that ended in March 1973. The dollar will target 50 yen during the current wave, based on multiplying 92 with 0.764, a number in the Fibonacci sequence, and subtracting from the 123.17 yen level seen in the second quarter of 2007, according to Uno.

The Elliot Wave was developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. Wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who discerned them from proportions found in nature.

Uno said after the dollar loses its reserve currency status, the U.S., Europe and Asia will form separate economic blocs. The International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights may be used as a temporary measure, and global currency trading will shrink in the long run, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shigeki Nozawa in Tokyo at snozawa1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 15, 2009 03:34 EDT

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_A5nqmw9Dq8

Your shares have advanced, good! A cause for prudent concern

A substantial rise in the market is at once a legitimate reason for satisfaction and a cause for prudent concern, but it may also bring a strong temptation toward imprudent action.


Your shares have advanced, good! You are richer than you were, good!

•But has the price risen too high, and should you think of selling?


•Or should you kick yourself for not having bought more shares when the level was lower?


•Or - worst thought of all - should you now give way to the bull-market atmosphere, become infected with the enthusiasm, the overconfidence and the greed of the great public (of which, after all, you are a part), and make larger and dangerous commitments?

Presented thus in print, the answer to the last question is a self-evident NO, but even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable will power to keep from following the crowd.

It is for these reasons of human nature, even more than by calculation of financial gain or loss, that we favour some kind of mechanical method for varying the proportion of bonds to stocks in the investor's portfolio. The chief advantage, perhaps, is that such a formula will give him something to do.

As the market advances, he will from time to time make sales out of his stockholdings, putting the proceeds into bonds; as it declines he will reverse the procedure.


(For today's investor, the ideal strategy for pursuing this formula is rebalancing)

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/10/market-fluctuations-of-investors.html

When you are caught in a market panic

In fact, the only rational thing to do is take courage and make buys. Being gutsy enough to act on our contrarian test - refusing to sell good stocks cheap because Wall Street and Main Street have lost faith for a few days - ensures that your earlier selling at better levels, or not at all, will prove appropriate.

It will be emotionally difficult to buy in a panic. those who can do so are demonstrably rational and therefore also calm enough to sell with discipline as the prior highs approached.

So, should you find yourself in the midst of a crisis in the future, remember:


•Do not engage in panic selling.

•Sit tight and stick to your strategy.

•If you are a long-term, buy-and-hold investor, do hold on.

•If you are an adventurous investor, follow your strategy to buy on dips.

Make sure your overall portfolio is designed to limit your potential losses during a substantial market decline.

Pro-active action in a panic or crash

When appropriate selling has left an investor with only a few, high-quality stocks, he can and should hold onto those gems and play through the difficult experience of a panic or crash. He will be holding only a relatively small portfolio, so his level of pain will be no worse than moderate.

Consequences must dominate Probabilities

In making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, the consequences must dominate the probabilities. We never know the future.


http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/10/consequences-must-dominate.html

In any crisis, there will be opportunities.

How to value these companies' businesses today? This will be difficult. The earnings for the next few quarters will need to be tracked. Past earnings are historical and due to fundamental changes in the businesses of various companies, assessing the value of these companies based on historical earnings will be unwise.

However, some companies can be anticipated to do not too badly. These are traditionally in the defensive sectors of food and beverages, gambling, healthcare and utilities.

For other companies, particularly in the industrial, plantations, tradings, construction, and housing sectors, the future earnings will be difficult to project with any degree of certainty at present.

Yes, some of these companies might have been oversold in the general negative sentiment of the present market but one can only be very certain of this when the results of the next few quarters are known.

Fifteen Things More Important Than Money

The Simple Dollar: “Fifteen Things More Important Than Money” plus 1 more

Fifteen Things More Important Than Money
Posted: 15 Oct 2009 01:00 PM PDT

Three and a half years ago, I was in a desperate debt situation. My lifestyle was tied desperately to spending far more than I was bringing in – and I was finally paying the consequences.

I had let money become the most important thing in my life. It drove all of my choices and decisions. It chose my career for me. It chose my specific job for me. It chose how I spent my free time – I did expensive things to escape from the debts and the pressure-filled work, usually with a device on my hip that chained me to that job.

I was desperate and unhappy. I was in a prison made of money – and I knew I had to escape it.

Today, I realize something much more compelling. Money is not the most important thing in life. In fact, in a healthy life, money often follows behind many other elements in your life. If you put your energy and time into other things more important than money, money will follow. It will find a way to work.

Here are fifteen things I’ve found that are more important than money.

Experiences
Hug someone. Kiss someone. Write someone a letter telling them how you feel. Run (or walk) a marathon. Spend all day making an exquisite meal and eat it by candlelight. Make love to someone. Face the thing you most fear right in the face. The rush you get from experiencing something amazing is one of the best parts of being human, and most of the time the financial cost is minimal.

Wisdom
If you think you know the answer, you’re far from wise. Keep learning. Wisdom comes from knowing how little you actually know. Spend some time learning something new, perhaps even becoming skilled at something. You’ll surprise yourself at what you gain, often far beyond the mere knowledge you hoped to attain.

Marriage
Accepting another person wholly and intimately into your life is utterly life-changing. Opening up every part of yourself to another person is constantly challenging, but constantly powerful in how it changes you and makes you strive to be a better person.

Friendships
The regular companionship and camaraderie of people you care about and share interests with is continually life-affirming. Friendships don’t revolve around the things you have or the activities you can afford – they revolve around people.and shared experiences.

Physical health
Health can’t be bought, but it can be helped by the personal choices we make. Exercise. Eating better. Making choices that are less sedentary. Getting involved with activities that get us moving. Practicing proper hygiene. Money pales in comparison to the value of the physical health needed to enjoy life.

Mental health
On the flip side of the physical coin is mental health. Expressing our feelings in a healthy way. Finding people to talk to and relate our problems. Addressing the issues that bother us. Seeking professional help when these options don’t change things for the better. Again, money is insignificant compared to the value of mental balance.

Personal passions
What activities make you feel truly excited and fulfilled? Those things are the spice of life – every one of us wins by digging into our passions. The best part? Quite often, seeking out and following your passions often means that money will follow in the wake.

Communication
The ability to express our thoughts and feelings to a receptive audience is truly invaluable. it enables us to share elements of our inner world with others, something that can’t be achieved by all of the material wealth on this planet.

Self-reliance
Money comes, money goes. The ability to survive and even thrive with no money means that money becomes significantly less important. The ability to do things yourself reduces the need you have for money to solve your problems.

Security
If we channel our efforts into creating a safe and secure enviroment where we’re protected from our failures, we create a situation where our fortunes are much less tied to our ability to put money in our pocket. If we put effort into security now, we have true safety later, a type of safety that can’t be broken by ordinary material needs.

Helping others
For most people, the action of helping others provides a great deal of personal joy and satisfaction, something that cannot be replaced by any sort of material item. Helping others often requires no financial resources at all and can sometimes generate financial resources – free meals and such – plus goodwill in the community. Good karma has tremendous value.

Personal growth
Every single person has countless opportunities to improve as a person – their behavior, their beliefs, and so forth. Working to grow as a person only improves you and rarely costs anything, but it almost always improves your income potential for the future as well as naturally improving your outlook on the world and your self-confidence.

Thankfulness
When you move from desiring the things that you do not have to being thankful for the things that you do have, your perspective on the world changes drastically. Your desire for having the latest things goes down while, at the same time, your contentedness with life goes up dramatically.

Hobbies
If you can discover personally fulfilling activities to fill your time, you introduce happiness into your life. Many people fall into routines by default, never asking if their choices introduce authentic happiness, then they try to chase a sense of happiness by purchasing things. Step back from this. Try new things, and dig into the things you genuinely enjoy. Often, it’s the simplest things – playing a game with our partner, going on long walks, collecting rocks or leaves – that bring us the greatest personal satisfaction.

Spirituality
Does our life have a purpose? Do we have a spirit? Is there something greater than we can comprehend all around us? Digging into these questions through reading, contemplation, meditation, and prayer can bring an incredible sense of calm, peace, and even joy that can be difficult to find in other avenues – and impossible to find with money.

The more of these elements you dig into and discover in your life, the lesser the role of money, materialism, and spending occupies. In the end, you’ll find that you’re no longer chasing money, but that instead money is following you on the path to a much better life.

http://www.thesimpledollar.com/
http://www.thesimpledollar.com/2009/10/15/fifteen-things-more-important-than-money/

You survived! Valuable lessons learned

Once an investor has successfully navigated the worst of the choppy investment seas, he/she will have learned survival lessons and will have internalized feelings and a vivid experience that will be of permanent psychological and instructive value.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

If stocks are bought without reference to value, they will in turn be sold without reference to value.

----

When prices increase at a greater rate than can be justified by business performance, they must eventually stagnate until the value catches up or they must retreat in the directions of the value.

Only when a stock is bought at less than its value can price increases that exceed incremental increases in value be justified.

Investing is the intention to seek a required rate of return (RR) relative to risk, based on an assessment of value.

Investing in stocks is not about buying scrip that will go up and down in price, but about investing long term in a sound business that represents good value at its present price.

Current temporary PRICE is determined by a tiny minority interested in buying or selling

Although prices are deemed to reflect consensus, it should be remembered that prices are determined not by the majority of shareholders who are uninterested in buying or selling at the current temporary price, but by the tiny minority who are.

Petdag 16.10.2009

Remarkable.  The present price is back to its all time high.

Valuation:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tWD_ov2ZEm3y2RrDZLIGDYg&output=html

Implication of less liquid stocks or funds

Liquidity (relative lack of interest and trading activity) can be a double-edged sword:


•If you're selling, you may not get as good a price, but

•if you're buying, you'll likely get a discount.

It is not hard to see that these less liquid stocks or funds should be considered long-term investments.

Is it surprising that iCap is trading at a discount?

During the last bull market, iCap traded at a high of $2.82.  There are many investors in the market with realised losses or who are still holding iCap shares at higher costs to its present price.

When selecting a closed-ended fund, investors must determine the reason the fund is trading at a discount and whether the discount is significant enought to be attractive. A discount may be justified by

•uncertainty,

•popularity or perceptions of the fund, and

•the underlying asset base.

Never subsidize losers with winners.

Rather than take the medicine -- the loss -- they hold on to the losers and sell their winners.
 
They never learn my rule:  Never subsidize losers with winners.


Sell the losers and wait a day. If you really want them, go buy them back the next day. I also am certain that you never will.

Eject the losers and the winners will lift the portfolio.

It is the percentage of time that most of a portfolio is invested in rising stocks that determines how good performance will be. Eject the losers and the winners will lift the portfolio.

An exception to every rule. This applies particularly to value investors with long term horizon. Instead of blindly selling the losers until all you have are winners, you should really look at whether the fundamentals have changed for the stocks. There may indeed be a good reason for the relative underperformance of Stock B – e.g. poor management or grim industry outlook. However if nothing has changed and you thought Stock B was good value when you first bought it, it must be an absolute bargain after dropping an extra 50%! Shouldn’t you be buying more instead of selling?

Be an emotion free investor

An emotion free investor would only look objectively at the fundamentals and the valuation of the stock, instead of getting hung up on the entry price.