Friday, 9 April 2010

Interesting look at Affirmative Action in Malaysia


Affirmative action: Bad for growth?


My post today is about a country that doesn't usually get much attention in debates about global economic issues – Malaysia. But don't be too quick to click to the next webpage. What's going on these days in that small, tropical nation is raising interesting questions about the relationship between social justice and economic development.
Malaysia's prime minister, Najib Razak, is in the process of overhauling what is likely the world's most extensive and intensive affirmative action program, called the New Economic Policy, or NEP. First instituted in the early 1970s, the NEP was designed to expand the role of the impoverished Malay community in the national economy. The Malays represent the majority of the population, but back when the NEP was launched, Chinese immigrants and foreign firms owned the vast majority of the country's assets. To fix that, the Malay-dominated government adopted all kinds of rules and regulations that gave special perquisites to Malays. Malay-owned companies received preferential treatment when bidding for state contracts, for example, while the government mandated Malay investors receive 30% of initial public offerings on the local stock market. It was an amazing experiment in social reconstruction.
The nature of NEP policies has been altered over the years, with some of the stricter requirements being softened or even eliminated. But now Najib and his government have come to believe that Malaysia's affirmative action policies need further reform to ensure the future competitiveness of the Malaysian economy. He outlined his views a few days ago in a speech (you can read the whole text here), in which he said:
For the long-term strength of our nation, we cannot afford to duck these issues any longer. If we are to truly tackle inequality and become a beacon of progress in our region, we must bring a sense of urgency to reform.
Before I go any further, I'd like to make something clear. I fear that at this point in the post some readers are already warming up their fingers to type me some nasty comments. However, I want to state categorically that I am not – repeat, not – against affirmative action. In the theoretical world of classical economics, there is no need for affirmative action policies, since everyone gets equal opportunity in a market system that rewards and punishes entirely based on the wisdom of ideas and hard work. In the real world, however, economic decisions are sadly influenced by all kinds of prejudices and social networks, and sometimes laws are necessary to ensure fairness.
Clearly, the Malaysians (or at least the Malay segment of Malaysian society) believe that the NEP was necessary to achieve social justice and communal peace. The NEP was developed after race riots in 1969. That horrific event led the leadership to conclude they'd be unable to defuse tensions in Malaysia's multiracial society without rectifying the economic balance between the diverse communities and lifting the Malays out of poverty. As Najib said of the NEP in his speech:
Its affirmative action policy has served the nation well, balancing the economic growth strategies of our nation with the need to address structural inequalities and promote social harmony…As a nation we should be proud of this achievement. It is one that many other multi-racial nations would like to emulate.
Yet at the same time, Najib acknowledged that there has been a cost to these policies as well. As he said:
We can no longer tolerate practices that support the behavior of rent-seeking and patronage, which have long tarnished the altruistic aims of the New Economic Policy. Inclusiveness, where all Malaysians contribute and benefit from economic growth - must be a fundamental element of any new economic approach.
The reason such inclusiveness is necessary, Najib said, is to make the Malaysian economy more competitive by capitalizing on the talents of all ethnic groups. He said:
We must recognize the imperative that we harness the potential of all Malaysians, and that all share in the proceeds of increased national prosperity…While perfect equality is in reality impossible to achieve in an open, global economy, an inclusive society will ensure that we can narrow inequalities in our nation, help those who need help most and engage all of Malaysia's talents in our effort to build a competitive economic workforce.
What can this tell us about the impact of affirmative action policies on economies? I've been struggling with that question since reading Najib's speech. It's hard to take lessons from Malaysia that can apply elsewhere. The Malaysia case of affirmative action is an extreme one. Other countries that have instituted some affirmative action programs usually don't do so on such a widespread, sweeping scale. Affirmative action in Malaysia has thus had an exaggerated impact on its economy.
Yet at the same time, it is interesting how even the supporters of these policies believe that in some ways there is a kind of trade-off between affirmative action and economic competitiveness, that they may have to choose between their affirmative action policies and what's good for the overall economy. Najib's current planned reforms aren't the first time the Malaysian government has been confronted with this dilemma. In the mid-1980s, when Malaysia fell into a recession, the government identified the NEP regulations as a key impediment to investment growth. The then prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, suspended parts of the NEP to allow certain foreign investors to have full ownership of their Malaysian operations in the hopes of attracting more capital and creating jobs. (It worked.) I think it is also interesting how the Malaysian government's idea of social justice seems to have changed, from the redistribution of wealth to wealth generation for all. As Najib said:
Our first priority must be to eradicate poverty, irrespective of race. We cannot have the high income, sustainable and inclusive economy we seek when disparities in income are not addressed. So there will be a renewed affirmative action policy…with a focus on raising income levels of all disadvantaged groups.
Well said, Prime Minister.

Comments (17)
Post a Comment »






  • 1
    Malaysia is no longer eligible for full membership in the liberal, democrat, socialist and communist group of camp followers. As a result you can expect to see much condemnation here from these closely aligned groups.






  • 2
    I miss Justin, he usually got this stuff on his own.
    -
    Look, its like this: The affirmative action campaign in Malaysia was so extreme that while it worked to funnel work and experience to deserving Malays who might otherwise be denied it, the program ended up denying opportunities to deserving non-Malays.
    -
    Theoretically, affirmative action programs are only supposed to correct for the biases in the market created by human prejudice, they're not supposed to pro-actively favor one group over another. The NEP took this concept about 10 steps too far, thus resulting in a less efficient, rather than a more efficient market. All they're doing now is correcting that overreach to line up with current and actual levels of discrimination and denied opportunity.
    -
    AA programs aren't something that can be set in stone and just left alone. They have to be continually updated to reflect a societies' current levels and directions of bias. That's one reason many are calling for US affirmative action programs at universities to switch from race based to income/socioeconomic based criteria.
    -
    So really, all Malaysia is doing is keeping up and re-affirming their affirmative action program. And while I know that isn't a great headline "program works well, is updated to reflect progress", when compared to "affirmative action: bad for growth". It'd be really nice if you could look past the obvious and provide some actual insight and analysis of trends and their historical context and reasoning. Thanks.






    • 2.2
      First off, thanks for replying to commentary Mr. Schuman, it is always appreciated.
      -
      Second, did you even read the quotes you put up there?
      -
      Najib closes his speech by saying they must renew, not destroy, RENEW, affirmative action policies.
      -
      Since it's opening day, I'll use a baseball analogy. Before integration, the quality of competitive play was reduced because many of the most talented players were forced to play in the Negro Leagues. If there had been a "one black player per team" rule, the overall quality would have gone up, because clubs would have fired their least skilled white player and hired the most skilled black player they could find. If the rule had been "23 black players per team" then competitiveness would have been hurt just as much or more than it was being hurt by having only white players on each team.
      -
      Previously, Malaysia had a policy like "23 black players per team", and when they reformed it, they'd do something like "you must have at least 18 black players per team, but you can go up to all 25 if you feel like it, and really, we don't mind if you do." In other words, they tinkered around the edges while keeping the whole-hearted spirit intact.
      -
      Excessive AA is just as harmful to competitiveness as discrimination is, it just changes the direction of the opportunity losses. All they Malaysian government is saying is that they've figured this out and will now radically renew/modify their AA policies in an attempt to stop the discrimination those policies are now causing.
      -
      Re-read his speech, Najib isn't saying "AA bad, no AA good", he's saying they're going to rewrite their AA policies to both reflect more socio-economic concerns than racial ones and to stop official discrimination against non-Malays.






    • 2.4
      I see your point, but, I really don't agree with it. This isn't about the end of AA. It's about shifting it from an exclusive, quota and race based system into an inclusive, open-ness and opportunity based system.
      -
      Which makes your headline and argument about the "end" of AA really, really misleading and sort of turns the argument into something its not. Good debate though.
      -
      And I'm off to opening day. Go Royals!






    • 2.5
      Thank you, Sean and jimc1004. What I find absolutely astonishing is the raw, unvarnished bias shown by Schuster, even in the title of the blog, "Affirmative Action: Bad for Growth?" Schuster ignores the reasons why the Malays instituted affirmative action programs and the reasons why they have decided to moderate these programs. Signifying that affirmative action is bad, either in Malaysia or the USA, he simplistically suggests that all should benefit from such efforts. Unfortunately, all should have not been excluded, intentionally or unintentionally, from the benefits of equal economic opportunity, either in Malaysia or in the USA. Affirmative action programs in the USA were never intended to be preferences, however, or quotas. The Labor Department's regulations make that clear. See 41 CFR Part 60-2. The key is opportunity, eliminating discrimination and overcoming the preferences that some have enjoyed for centuries (such as the legacy programs that enabled George Bush to attend Yale and Harvard Business School with a "C" average.) That kind of affirmative action has been good for growth in the US --enabling the growth of a black middle class and giving women an opportunity to excel, and I predict that it will be good for the Malays as well.






  • 3
    Well said, Sean!






  • 4
    Quotas alone will never address decades or centuries of discrimination. The elite have had "all the advantages". You can not take raw talent like some high IQ slum kid and just stuff him/her into Harvard Medical school.
    Programs like Head Start, though never fully funded so that all eligible kids were enrolled, have proved that early childhood education intervention works to raise school performance [and is much cheaper than later alternatives like juvenile corrections]. Of course the enemies of public schools and affirmative action for the poor [but NOT for "legacies"] try to claim that post Head Start [ie in higher grades, when the funding ends and the schools are still horrible] the results don't last - which is like arguing that, "Feeding the dog doesn't work, I fed it for 3 years but as soon as I stopped the dog still died".
    What about the enourmous cost to society of not exploiting ALL the available talent pool? India and China and a few other countries are expanding their economies by graduating thousands of scientists and engineers, many drawn from the peasant class. In cultures where women are excluded from work opportunities outside the home they are tossing away half the raw talent. The same is true where there is widespread poverty and little economic mobility. That is also bad for growth.






  • 5
    Author: "Clearly, the Malaysians (or at least the Malay segment of Malaysian society) believe that the NEP was necessary to achieve social justice and communal peace. The NEP
    was developed after race riots in 1969. That horrific event led the leadership to conclude they'd be unable to defuse tensions in Malaysia's multiracial society without
    rectifying the economic balance between the diverse communities and lifting the Malays out of poverty."
    Me: 1969 riot is not a true race riot. The truth of the event wasn't allowed to be published and reported in the press.
    Government ordered newspaper to report so and so. Hence it got printed as fact and history. Many were misled of the truth. The summary of facts printed were the chinese won part of the election votes, the ruling UMNO-led alliance lost two third of seats losing the important states and territory like Kuala Lumpur and Selangor. The Chinese celebrated and the Malay got intimiated. Malay had own gathering to counter the celebration. Riot started when chinese supporters passed through some streets with malays and got beaten up.
    The fact was it was the party UMNO which led the riot. UMNO's Harun Idris, Selangor Chief Minister, called for a gathering of many Malay. He planned the riot with Abdul Razak. Abdul Razak wanted to come into power to be Prime Ministers taking down Tunku Abdul Rahman, the Prime Minister then. Harun Idris was abetting Abdul Razak for political gain. Malays were called to leave the cities. Non Malays were left dumb not knowing what happened, why many people were dissappearing. The malay just told their neighbours including chinese and indian ethnic, that they were going back to hometown. Harun Idris gets the supporters on truck armed with weapons to attack the supporters. Attacks began and soldiers and police were instructed not to stop the riot. Abdul Rahman knew everything was too late to stop.
    In many places like Kampung baru (a village name), many Malays were protecting their Chinese friends and neighbours by clothing them with sarung and malay clothes. Many attackers who came were unable to find the Chinese who were hiding in Malay's houses. Everyone loved peace. Only few bad ones spoilt the whole scene.
    When the riots is over, Malays moved back into their houses in the cities. Chinese see their neighbour coming back as if nothing happened. No one were allowed or even fear to talk about it. It had became a law to arrest anyone discussing about the incident - May 13th.
    NEP was introduced for self gain. It wasn't meant for the poor. It was only for the bumiputra.
    Technically, Malaysia NEP wouldn't be strong by granting benefits just to the Malays because they do not stand over 50%. Bumiputra terminology was introduced to cover Malays, muslims regardless of race, aborigines in east Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak). Only then bumiputra represents 60% of Malaysia.
    As time passes, many articles are twisted and being misled to declare Malay stands at 60%. Come to think about it. If the Indian represents 9%, Chinese 30%, Sabah & Sarawak 20% of which a portion is chinese and Indian, which were already part of the 9% & 30%, it still leave more than half of them to be aborigines. Say 13%. The total non-Malays stand at 52%. How would Malay be 60%?
    As decades moved on, many Sabah and Sarawak residents proclaim Christianity, some got into mixed marriages and many of them lose the bumiputra status. Hence, bumiputra percentage dropped. Malaysia welcomes few millions of backdoor illegal poor immigrants from Indonesia, who are mostly Muslims. They then receive permanent residents and citizenship. Immigrants from Philipines settled in Sabah with fake local identity which could be purchased and had their data inserted into the federal registration system. They were only required to agree that they hold bumiputra status, claimed to be muslim and vote for the UMNO-led alliance. There are also many whom took over the identity of death people who were not reported. Registration process is poor and lack of transparency in Malaysia, especially in rural area.
    Isn't it amazing for Malaysia whom had a population of 22 million in 1990s to blossom to 28 million ten years later?
    The current Prime Minister Najib is the son of Abdul Razak. Do you think he doesn't know everything? Do you think a son will change the NEP what his father has brainchild? Think again.






  • 6
    Where do you get the notion that affirmative action laws "still enforce the selection of one person over another, based on race, gender, etc."? There are significant legal restraints on using race or gender to form the basis on which one makes a selection. See, Johnson v. Transportation Agency, a Supreme Court decision that allowed gender to be taken into account only where there was a manifest imbalance in the job group in question. Affirmative action programs are primarily based on recruitment and outreach. The basic theory is if you diversify the pool of applicants with qualified persons, you will achieve a diverse workforce. "Casting a wide net" is what affirmative action requires, as well as removing discriminatory barriers to employment or educational opportunity. In that respect, affirmative action is in-clusionary, not exclusionary.
    I also disagree that using exclusively economic factors achieves a more palatable form of opportunity and promotes growth. First, there is no such thing as purely economic rules in this complex, global economy. Since slavery, which was essential to the Ameican Southern economy, wealth distribution has depended on non-economic factors including labor, African and European. Even the selction of the nation's leaders via the vote determines our economic policies from banking to taxation. Moreover, the leaders of the legislative, judicial and executive branches of American government are, in many cases, graduates of elite institutions of higher education, who until the 1960s, explicitly limited access to white men (of wealth). It was the civil rights movement and the resulting laws that opened our economy to a higher level of participation by women and minorities. If affirmative action is unpalatable, it is because those who have enjoyed the privileges of wealth and exclusivity are threatened by the new diversity and competition. Given the changing demographics, however, diversity has become a matter of national interest.






  • 7
    Apparently we need to understand that racial discrimination is so repugnant, so despicable and so completely unacceptable that the only solution acceptable to liberals is racial discrimination. It must be intellectually very difficult to be a liberal.






  • 8
    As Supreme Court Justice Harry Blackmun wrote: "In order to get beyond racism, we must first take account of race. There is no other way." It is unfortunate that you consider remedying past discrimination to be discriminatory. Some think it's justice.






  • 9
    The original post and discussion has suffered from the fact that it was a response to a well-orchestrated disinformation campaign from the Malaysian government.
    Of all the comments, only malaysiamanaboleh understands the real situation on the ground in Malaysia. Note that Malaysia does not have a free press, so what the outside world sees is for the most part the government party line. Only the online bloggers and other sources that have evaded censorship are left to tell the other side of the story. These includehttp://malaysiakini.com/ and http://www.malaysia-today.net/.
    Because I spent two years in Malaysia, including the time of the riots, and have visited there recently, I would like to share my first hand view of the actial situation, as follows:
    Firstly, the way the government uses the term "affirmative action" is give the impression that the Malays were discriminated against. This is not true -- in fact the discrimination, since Malaysia was created, has been against the non-Malay ethnic groups, chiefly the chinese and indians. This happened because when the British colony was transformed into Malaysia (1957-1963), the Malays were put in power, and they have been able to stay in power ever since. The 1969 riots were actually incited by the government so they could create a state of emergency and stay in power. The cynically-named Malaysian "affirmative action" is actually a system of ethnic preferences given to the Malay ethnic group by their Malay government, and includes an educational system that reserves almost all university admissions for Malays, almost all government positions for Malays, etc, etc, ad nauseam.
    Secondly, the one-party Malay regime is extremely corrupt. This has resulted in billions of logging and oil revenues winding up in the pockets of government officials and their cronies, the rainforests plundered, and the lands of native peoples taken away without any compensation.
    This situation, well known inside Malaysia, has resulted, with the help of the open Internet to get the real story out to the people, with a growing opposition party, PKR, that is threatening the Malay regime, and has caused foreign investors fear instability and to shy away. This is why we are seeing the big announcements from the government, like the one quoted in the original post. The regime is trying to convince the international investment community that they will be able stabilize the country and stay in power. But most of my malaysian friends, like malaysiamanaboleh, think this is just propaganda.






  • 10
    Michael Schuma,
    The original goal of NEP is to achieve 30% Bumiputra ownership in Malaysian equities which has already been surpassed as proven by the study made by a former UN economist few years ago. It was somewhere around 38%. The NEP should been abolised or reviewed since the main goal has been achieved.
    The fact is Malaysia government has been excluding companies like Power Company (Tenaga), Phone Company (Telekom), Airline Company (MAS), Highway companies (PLUS and many) and many other big companies which have been privatised. The claim by the government that these are 'servicing people' company and thus should not be counted.
    Malaysian Government then released their own statistics which dismissed the report by UM economist. The economist has to go into hiding for fear of arrest.
    If current government can deny facts and manipulate statistics whatever reform is only propaganda.
    Besides this, all personal income are required to contribute 11%-21% to employee provident fund (EPF), so called individual retirement financial plans. This fund amounting to billions of ringgit. But this fund is held by goverment financial body instead of independent investment companies and banks as seen in many other countries. Government used this fund to own companies which represents a great portion capital of the market. This ownership is also excluded from the equity statistics above. Malaysia economy is based on capitalisation.
    Most of these rich funding will only flows back into rich Malay instead of all bumiputra or Malays. Other bumiputras receive a small fraction of the cake to keep them happy. Many instruments and method were brainchilded to ensure this success.
    Example, retirement pension is only available to the government workers, which has a 'reserved' quota over 90% to hire the Malays. In overseas, all workers, regardless whether they work in private companies, self-run business or government companies, each receive equal pension - everyone. In Malaysia, the monthly pension government workers receive is equivalent to half of their last paid monthly salary. Poor workers who had RM1000 as salary only receive RM500. It is sufficient for their living. But imagine head honchos whom had salary of something between RM5000 and RM10,000.
    Isn't this called a rip off? Is this equality? Is everything transparent?
    Non-government workers only retire and rely on their EPF, which retired government workers also have as additional savings. Malaysia culture has been shaped in the way that it encourages working children to support their retired parents. Press will portray parents who want to live independent from their children as a shame as if being kicked out by their children. Hence many retired parents continue to live with children and grandchilren. The burden on govermment is reduced by this way.
    Highway comnpanies which are own by the EPF is said by Government as private companies. Hence they needed to collect toll fare and the fare is allowed to be increased vastly every few years and burden the people. The profit highway companies made in the end are channeled back to Government in a way.
    Besides the above, there are many other means which reduced the burden on Government while at the same time generate financial in flow to them.
    It is a shame writers from TIME just write articles by collecting official information, instead of going to the grass root and seek information from the people. Foreigners who has work and lived in Malaysia for some time could see the whole picture if they are aware.






  • 11
    Correction in first paragraph:
    UN economist was mentioned. This should be University Malaya (UM) economist.


Read more: http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2010/04/04/affirmative-action-bad-for-growth/?xid=rss-topstories#ixzz0kbWsz2IQ

EPF dominates 50% of the daily trading on Bursa Malaysia.


Tuesday April 6, 2010

Fund managers echo PM view on EPF trades

By TEE LIN SAY


PETALING JAYA: Fund managers agree that it is unhealthy for the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) to dominate 50% of the daily trading on Bursa Malaysia.
During his speech at Invest Malaysia 2010 last Tuesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak had said the EPF’s dominance of the local equity market, with up to 50% of daily trading volume, was “not healthy” for the market or for the pension fund.
“It is no use being the biggest fish in a small pond where you can be attacked by everyone,” said a research head of a local firm.
“When this happens, your strategy is very limited and you cannot liquidate easily. It is difficult to get out, as you always need to be holding the baby. The result is sub-par performance.
“That is why it is very important for the Government to sell down its stakes in the government-linked companies (GLCs) to boost liquidity in the market,” he said.
He cited the example of Lembaga Tabung Haji, which at RM23bil, was less than a 10th the EPF’s size, and was thus nimbler and able to exit stocks easier.
Currently, the EPF has a total fund size of RM370bil and about a quarter of this is invested in the local stock market.
Meanwhile, Bursa Malaysia chief executive officer Datuk Yusli Mohamed Yusoff said he was well aware of the challenges facing the market and was continually working with the authorities, index providers and market participants on improving free float and liquidity in the market.
“Having said that, we agree that having one particular type of investor dominating the market is not healthy for the market over the long term.
“We want to attract a diverse set of investors into our market for sustainable growth. Therefore, our current initiatives are addressing the needs and demands of a wide spectrum of investors,” Yusli said.
He said investors should also shift their mindset and look at investing in as many Bursa-listed companies as possible.
“True to the wise saying of not putting all the eggs in one basket, investors should diversify their investment strategy and not concentrate on one or a small number of stocks as this scenario is hampering liquidity,” Yusli said.
At Invest Malaysia, Najib also said the EPF would be allowed to invest more assets overseas, both diversifying its portfolio and creating more room domestically for new participants.
EPF chief executive officer Tan Sri Azlan Zainol said the pension fund planned to increase its overseas investments to 10% of the fund size over the next one or two years.
EPF declared a dividend of 5.65% for last year. This was on the back of an improved total net income of RM19.63bil, up 34.82% from RM14.26bil in 2008.
It could possibly have declared better dividends had it invested more abroad, as that would have given it more flexibility in its movements.
“It is a good thing that the EPF is going abroad. I don’t really think there is a problem of risk as the overseas exposure is small relative to its fund size and present exposure,” said a head of fixed income from an insurance fund. “Going from 6% to 10% isn’t much. So it is not increasing risk, rather a diversification and reduction of risk.”
While certain quarters said EPF was seen as the buyer of last resort for the Government’s equity stakes in GLCs, the fund manager disagreed.
“The EPF is on the ball. They know what they are doing. They will not simply take something without evaluating it first,” he said.
EPF public relations general manager Nik Affendi Jaafar said the EPF competed against other funds whenever a block of shares was offered to the market.
“In most cases, the EPF is not able to purchase shares in the quantities that we desire,” he said.

Warren Buffett: Distressed Assets a Great Investment



October 27, 2008 — Warren Buffett says that distressed assets are a great investment in an interview with Charlie Rose. He talks about Mortgage-Backed Securities, the government bailout. He says if you buy distressed assets at distressed prices, you will make money. He also mentions his confidence in the US economy over time, and closes with his classic quote: "You want to be greedy when others are fearful, you want to be fearful when others are greedy."

Videos-Financial Accounting by Susan Crosson

Videos-Financial Accounting by Susan Crosson
Click here for all the videos



Accounting Basics 1- Where did Accounting Come From?






Cash Flow 3 Investing Activites-Investments




http://www.youtube.com/user/SusanCrosson
Financial and Managerial Accounting topics covered in college Accounting courses are explained. Offerings also include videos about accounting software choices.

Warren Buffett: His Story and His Secrets

A quick look at GENM (Genting Malaysia)

Genting Malaysia Berhad Company

Business Description:
Genting Malaysia Berhad Formerly known as Resorts World Berhad. The Group's principal activities are leisure and hospitality business which comprises hotel, gaming, cruise and cruise related operations, entertainment businesses, golf resorts, tours and travel related services and other support services. Other activities include property development and management provision of training, offshore financing, utilities and cable car management services, proprietary timeshare ownership scheme, selling and letting of apartment and investment holding. The Group operates in Malaysia and Asia Pacific.
Wright Quality Rating: AAA1 Rating Explanations


Stock Performance Chart for Genting Malaysia Berhad




A quick look at GENM
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tBTCgSu7ESHENiACNLUujkg&output=html

AAA1 Wright Quality Rating.  With this company generating so much FCF and a lack-lustre DPO of 22.6%,  the growth of GENM is rather anaemic the last few years.  It is hoarding cash to the tune of RM 0.92 per share.  At RM 2.79, its PE is 12 and DY is 1.88%.

Also read:

Cash Hoard – Boon Or Bane For Shareholders

LPI Capital net profit up

LPI Capital Bhd posted a slight increase in net profit of RM 38.32 mil for its first quarter results ended March 31, 2010 as compared with RM 35.5 mil in the previous corresponding period.

It told Bursa Malaysia yesterday that the increase in the net profit was mainly due to higher underwriting profit.

Thursday, 8 April 2010

Techno-Fundamental Analysis, Anybody?


EDUCATION | 22 DECEMBER 2009
Techno-Fundamental Analysis, Anybody?


Recently, I heard two university students debating over the effectiveness of technical analysis (TA) and fundamental analysis (FA). Much debate has been on-going for many decades on the usefulness of FA and TA and whether one method triumphs over the other. I will give a brief description on both methods, respective advantages and disadvantages and how to combine them to use it as techno-fundamental analysis.


DESCRIPTION OF FA
FA is a study of evaluating the intrinsic value of a security via analysis of the economic, industry, company, financial and other qualitative and quantitative factors. The intrinsic value is then compared with the security’s current price to determine the position that one has to take.


Table 1 lists some of the advantages and disadvantages of FA.
AdvantagesDisadvantages
Identify sound stocks: FA enables the investor to identify sound companies with excellent management, strong financial position and in high growth industries. This significantly increases the returns that you can generate from the stock.Time consuming: One has to familiarize himself with the country, industry, company in order to reach a conclusion in the stock analysis. Besides, different valuation models or relative valuation models apply to different industries.
Get rich through FA: Warren Buffett is a classic example who obtains his wealth (2nd richest man in the world) through FA. There are extremely few (if any) technicians who obtained tremendous wealth via TA.Majority of the FA information comes from company: As most of the FA information comes from the company itself, it is typically biased, in favour of the company.
Develop thorough understanding of the company and industry: Through FA, the investor would be able to understand the company and the industry. This knowledge is important because the investor would know how to react to plunges in share price – i.e. he will have an idea whether the stock plunges because of impending bad news (e.g. unable to meet outstanding loan obligations) or mainly due to poor market sentiment.Disregards momentum: Some companies considered as market darlings can continue to surge, despite their lack of profits or revenue. Some undervalued companies can remain undervalued for years before surging, thus momentum should not be disregarded.
Table 1: Advantages and disadvantages of FA




DESCRIPTION OF TA
TA is the study of price patterns and trends in the financial markets so as to exploit those patterns. It was brought to the forefront with the advent of Dow Theory at the turn of century. Dow Theory subsequently laid the foundations for what was later to become modern TA. TA hinges on three core principles:


  • Market action discounts everything


  • Patterns exist


  • History repeats itself
Below are some of the general advantages and disadvantages of TA, summarized in Table 2.
AdvantagesDisadvantages
Ease of usage: For example, a head and shoulder pattern chart pattern has the same interpretation on a stock chart or currency chart or commodity chart.Subjectivity: Given the same chart, one technical analyst may think that the stock is building a base, while another may think there is more downside.
Price incorporates all available information:Price shows the consensus of all the market participants to the latest information available. It should be more correct than wrong.Crowd can be wrong: For example, during the dot com bubble, many people piled their life savings into the technology stocks, only to find themselves losing the bulk of their money.
Do not require in depth understanding of financial statements: TA does not require one to pore over the thick annual reports, quarterly reports. It also does not require the user to decide whether he should use discounted cash flow models or relative valuation models to value the stock.Historical: Charts cannot be used to predict sudden positive or negative events. For example, if China suddenly put in a price ceiling on all abalone produced and sold in China, abalone companies such as Oceanus would definitely be affected.
History may not repeat itself: History does not always repeat itself. If it always does, the richest people will be historians!
Table 2: Advantages and disadvantages of TA




TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
In my opinion, both FA and TA have their advantages and disadvantages. Although they are founded on different basis, I would rather assimilate the strengths of both FA and TA into a techno-fundamental analysis. How do I do that?
I will use FA to identify which stocks to buy or short and TA to identify when and whether to do this. Assuming if FA warrants a buy on Sinotel, Midas and Broadway, TA can be employed to identify a good purchase price or an opportune time to buy. 
  • A good purchase price is usually on or a tick above a strong support. 
  • Opportune time can be identified like the confirmation of an inverse head and shoulder pattern where price makes an upside breakout above the neckline (signifying a price reversal) with volume confirmation.

Conversely, TA can also be used to identify which stocks to buy or short and FA can confirm whether andwhen to do it. For example, assuming if TA generates buy signals on Sinotel and Celestial on 29 Apr 09, I would use FA to confirm whether there are near term price catalysts and sound fundamental reasons to buy. FA would be able to filter out Celestial as it has impending convertible bonds to finance in June 09 (where it is rather apparent that it has problems financing them). FA can also provide an idea on when to take a position in the stock. For example, through a FA of Midas, one would know that it is likely to announce contracts in the next three months. Thus, if this is coupled with a buy signal from TA, one will have favourable odds of making a positive return on Midas.



CONCLUSION
In a nutshell, investing is a game of probability. 
  • Only the insiders in the company know almost everything about the company. 
  • For us, who are outsiders, although we may have gathered extensive sources of information on the company, industry, country, we may still be wrong. 
  • Thus, it is wise to couple TA (price consensus of all market participants) with FA (specific knowledge of industry & company) to increase the probability of earning a positive return on your investments.

Next time, if you hear people debating over the usefulness of FA and TA, do go up to them and say “Techno-fundamental analysis, anybody?”
Ernest Lim currently works as an assistant treasury and investment manager. Prior to this role, he was with Legacy Capital Group Pte Ltd, a boutique asset management and private equity firm, as an investment manager since 2006. He received a Bachelor of Accountancy (Honours) from Nanyang Technological University in 2005. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst, as well as, a Certified Public Accountant Singapore. He is currently taking a short break before embarking on a new role.

Tempting But Investors Resisting Lure Of Cheap Stocks


PERSPECTIVE | 06 MARCH 2009
Tempting But Investors Resisting Lure Of Cheap Stocks


It is easy to forget about valuations especially in a super bear market where fear overwhelms common sense and logic. It is funny how we all chase after things that are expensive but shunning the same thing when it is cheap, and this can only be explained by the simple reason that we fear today’s seemingly low price will become even lower the next day.

Fear is such a powerful weapon so much so that it can totally knock all sense out of us: We buy and sell at the wrong time and mistakes are often painful.

I remember writing about sentiment being a far important factor than fundamental analysis and/or technical analysis whenever fear grips investors. At this moment, although fear factor is not as high as it was back in October/November, investors have turned despondent and have almost given up hope with some even not bothering to watch the stock market because bad news and more bad news are being reported by the media on a daily and hourly basis.

Nightmare On Wall Street
Watching the DJIA in action was better than watching the famous horror epic “Nightmare on Elm Street”, as Wall Street played out its own version of a horror show.
During the fortnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shed about 800 points from 7,555 to 6,726, breaking the October low of 7,449 with the utmost ease and traded to a 12-year low. While there was no fresh spark that triggered the selling, investors just cannot wait to get out of the market – a sign of desperation and exasperation rolled into one.
At the same time, the Straits Times Index (STI) was a battlefield for the bulls and the bears who tried to slug it out in search of a direction. For most part of early-to-mid February, the STI traded sideways refusing to budge even when the US and regional bourses rallied or tanked, with the bears securing a decisive victory on 16 February when the STI went below 1,650 and then tested the next support at 1,570.
In the previous issue of Shares Investment, I mentioned that the STI could test 1,570 and may even overshoot this support if the DJIA were to fall below 7,450. On the other hand, I also mentioned that the STI could move to 1,750 if the DJIA were to go above 8,000 in the most bullish scenario. We were unfortunate that the former came true and the STI had indeed gone as low as 1,502 but had since rebounded on the same day to close at 1,544 on 4 March.
As a matter of fact, all the major regional indices including the Hang Seng Index, the Nikkei 225, the STI and the Shanghai Composite Index did not revisit the October lows while the US indices, the European indices as well as the Australian and Kiwi indices all fell below October levels.
Of all the indices, the Chinese stock market fared the best with a blockbuster 700-point gain from 1,700 to 2,400 from October to February. This phenomenon tells a tale, as it clearly highlights what the world thinks of the Chinese economy and, to a smaller extent, the Asian economies.

Can We Pin Our Hopes On China?
Most people hope that China can help us out of this rut, with the exception of a handful who thinks that their respective economies have the divine right to be the messiah that we have all been crying out for.
No matter who the messiah is, the sooner we get out of this rut, the better it is for everybody.
China is the only major growing economy and with a reserve of some US$1.45 trillion, has the ability to spend its way out of trouble while helping others along the way. Some signs of China being the first to get out of trouble have appeared in the form of the February Purchasing Manager’s Index rising to 49 from 45.3 a month ago. At its worst month in November, the PMI read just 38.8. This is a sign that its US$585 billion stimulus package may be working.
Also, Premier Wen’s remarks that surging loans, growth in retail sales in January, and an increase in electricity output and consumption from the middle of February are signs that government measures are working, which may aid in the first-half recovery of China’s economy.
Most importantly, export orders, which make up a huge chunk of China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rose to 43.4 from 33.7 while employment rose for the first time in six months from 43 to 46.1.
According to reports, government officials have indicated that the authorities may pump in RMB8-10 trillion of “government-sponsored investment” while an expanded stimulus package has been rumoured to be on its way to speed up the recovery.
All these measures, together with the “encouragement” of more lending by banks to unfreeze the credit market, will to a big extent boost an economy that is already strong, in relative terms.

To Shun Or To Buy?
Stocks across the board are looking cheap but buyers do not seem to be suitors as yet. If we were to talk about financial stocks, investors are worried that the contagion effect of a weak US financial system coupled with a weakening global economy may hit the three local banks even further in the next few quarters when non-performing loans start to grow. This is the main reason for the share price of the three banks being hammered.
If stocks were trading at 2X historical earnings, way below the net asset value, then what is stopping investors from jumping at this opportunity?
Flipping through Shares Investment has revealed that former darlings such as Celestial Nutrifoods (CEL) and China Hongxing (CHX) are both trading at 1.6X and 4X FY08 earnings, respectively. On a price to book basis, CEL is now trading 0.17X ($0.125 versus $0.732) while CHX trades at 0.34X ($0.10 versus $0.34).
Ridiculous? There are more such examples but these two companies deserve a closer look despite the troubles that investors believe they are in.
CEL continued to report growth in its net profit for FY08 but 4Q08 showed a profit decline primarily due to higher soybean prices despite higher selling prices. The point of contention now lies in the fact that its cash position (RMB811m) is lower than its debt (RMB1,225m) – a taboo in today’s market – arising from its convertible bonds that could be redeemed as early as 19 June this year. The market now speculates that CEL could follow in the footsteps of Ferrochina and become insolvent in the event that it fails to source for the funds that could allow the company to face redemption.
The more the share price falls, the higher the fear factor will become despite the management reassuring investors that it has several proposals on the table regarding the refinancing on the convertible bonds.
In the case of CHX, and also CEL, the failure to declare dividends for FY08 has also raised fears that both companies are in financial trouble. Although CHX also reported net profit growth for FY08 despite a profit decline in 4Q08, investors are concerned about its business model of providing advances to its distributors for running stores. The amount of RMB1.15b advanced to these distributors is feared to have been “lost” or “uncollectable” and hence the selloff in the share price of CHX.
The RMB1.15b aside, CHX still has RMB1.98b in cash, which translates into about a cash value of $0.149 per share – a premium of almost $0.05 per share over its last done price of $0.10. If an investor were to buy into this stock at $0.10, he would be covered by almost $0.15 in cash and getting the entire shoe/sports operation of CHX for nothing!
Of course the risks involved in buying these two stocks are high, especially if we were to consider the worst-case scenario. But if both companies were to pull through, the rewards could be high especially when CEL owns the hi-tech soybean zone in Daqing City as well as a biodiesel fuel ready for production in 1Q09 while CHX is one of the top five sports shoe brands in China.

Where Do We Go From Here?
A short-term rebound looks likely at the time of writing with the DJIA up more than 100 points 6,830 on 4 March. Should the DJIA not falter for the next two trading days, it is likely to test the resistance at 7,100 before it meets 7,450. While the former looks possible, the resistance at 7,450 looks quite out of reach for now.
Rallies for the past few weeks have been a flash in the pan and nothing more than that. The short-term target for the STI is at 1,570 followed by 1,600 and 1,650. Nothing has changed fundamentally and rebounds are still very much technical in nature and, thus, weakness should follow almost immediately.
Stay nimble and sell into rallies for now.


Comment:  Very good article except for the final sentence asking to "stay nimble and sell into rallies for now."  We all know what happened to the market after March 2009.

Cash Hoard – Boon Or Bane For Shareholders


EDUCATION | 16 MARCH 2010
Cash Hoard – Boon Or Bane For Shareholders

By Ernest Lim 




Imagine if you have S$100m in your bank account, what joys and problems would you face? I believe some of the joys would entail sacking your boss, living it extravagantly but problems would include the deployment of cash, as well as, fearing for your life if people are aware of your immense wealth.
If the above situation happens to companies with large cash holdings, the management would also face similar problems, especially on the issue of effective cash deployment. So for companies with a large cash hoard, is it a boon or a bane? Let’s delve into the pros and cons of maintaining a substantial cash hoard.


Advantages

Reflective of a company with strong business performance
One of the advantages is that a large cash hoard signals that the company seems to accumulate cash faster than it can deploy (assuming that the company is effectively deploying its cash but it is still accumulating).
Furthermore, it is also reflective of a good business performance as cash is derived from profitable operations.


Buffer against bad times
Cash can be used as a buffer against bad times or mistimed acquisitions. For example, during the recession in 2008/09, companies with large amounts of debt and little cash face refinancing difficulties and some even have problems paying off the loans when they are due. Ferrochina, ex Singapore listed firm in the manufacturing sector, is a case in point.
Moreover, cash serves as a safety net against unpredictable events. Companies which carry out acquisitions, joint ventures, or maiden expansions into new markets or geographies are likely to face their fair share of failures and difficulties. Some business ventures may not reach their desired results and may run into temporary losses. Cash can be used to cover the losses in such situations.


Business facilitator
Companies with cash holdings are also likely to be able to get favourable credit terms with suppliers and banks. This is apparent as suppliers and banks have to access the credit risk of the companies which they are doing business with and companies with a considerable amount of cash holdings would allay part of their credit concerns. This would aid in the business operations of the companies.


Flexibility for future growth
Cash also provides management with a myriad of options for future growth. For example, management can decide on the following options

  • Look out for attractive acquisition targets either to expand horizontally or vertically along the value chain.
  • Carry out capital expenditure such as to acquire land for future purpose, or expand their production capacity through buying more machines etc.
  • Invest in listed companies purely for investment purposes.


Disadvantages


Dearth of attractive investment opportunities
One of the most obvious reasons for a large cash hoard is that management has exhausted attractive investment opportunities at the moment and is keeping cash for future opportunities whenever that may be. This does not benefit shareholders as holding substantial cash incurs an opportunity cost and also drag down the return generated by the companies. Besides, shareholders prefer companies to return cash or carry out share buybacks if there are no attractive investment opportunities by the companies.


Lack of long term planning
Some companies may not have the practice of planning for the long term. Thus, as they do not have a concrete idea of their cash requirements over the next three to five years, they would prefer to hold cash as this provide them with flexibility. Nonetheless, it is generally non ideal to invest in companies which do not execute long term planning, as “failure to plan means planning to fail”.


Agency costs
With substantial cash in the companies’ coffers, management may be tempted to use these funds to build their own empire by spending on non synergistic acquisitions and loss making projects, so as to boost their power, reputation and prestige.


Possibility of incurring suspicion and indignation from shareholders
If the cash hoard is increasing and management does not have concrete plans on the use of such funds, this may incur the suspicion on the authenticity of actual cash owned by the companies. For example, Oriental Century, a Singapore listed firm in the education sector, has a large amount of cash in its books. However, it is subsequently revealed that its Chief Executive Officer has allegedly inflated the cash holdings.
Another company, China Hongxing, a Singapore listed firm in the sports shoe and apparel sector, has been incurring the indignation of shareholders for more than a year by sitting on a large cash hoard, amounting to RMB3b at Dec 09, up from RMB1.9b at Dec 08. The collapse in its share price from the high of S$1.45 in Oct 07 to a low of S$0.055 in Mar 09 was due in part to investors’ angst and displeasure in China Hongxing management of cash. However, China Hongxing management has recently unveiled plans on how it would be deploying its cash.




Conclusion – evaluate against the overall context

To determine whether having a large cash hoard is beneficial to shareholders, shareholders have to evaluate against the following criteria:

  • Companies’ existing and future incoming cash flows;
  • Companies existing and future cash flow requirements (i.e. outflows);
  • Stage of business cycles;
  • Existing loan and interest repayments.
Thus, if the companies have concise plans to deploy their cash, either to satisfy outstanding loan repayments, or for synergistic acquisition purposes, or for capital expenditure in view of the recovery in the business cycles, then the cash hoard is a boon as it creates shareholder value.
Conversely, if management has no concrete plans to deploy the cash or to deploy them in reckless fashion, then, the cash hoard is a bane as it destroys shareholder value.
Once again, investors have to put on their thinking hats and do some work to reach a decision on whether the cash hoard is a boon or a bane for shareholders.
Ernest Lim currently works as an assistant treasury and investment manager. Prior to this role, he was with Legacy Capital Group Pte Ltd, a boutique asset management and private equity firm, as an investment manager since 2006. He received a Bachelor of Accountancy (Honours) from Nanyang Technological University in 2005. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst, as well as, a Certified Public Accountant Singapore. He is currently taking a short break before embarking on a new role.

http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2010/03/16/cash-hoard-boon-bane-sharesholders/

Selling – The Other Aspect To Good Portfolio Performance


EDUCATION | 31 MARCH 2010
Selling – The Other Aspect To Good Portfolio Performance
By Ernest Lim  


Selling has always been a less discussed topic than buying. This may be because selling is considered “giving up” on the stock and its potential future returns. Oftentimes, it may also seem to be a recognition that one has made a mistake to invest in the stock. However, I believe that knowing when to sell is paramount to obtain a good, respectable portfolio return.


When do you sell?
According to Philip Fisher, the best time to sell a stock is “almost never”. The key word is “almost”. This means that under certain circumstances, it is justifiable to sell. What are these “certain circumstances”?


Fundamentals have worsened
This can manifest in two ways. 
  • Firstly, the company’s fundamentals may have deteriorated to such an extent which you would not have bought it in the first place if you have known that the fundamentals would have changed. For example, assume that I initially bought stock A with its excellent growth prospects and seemingly honest management. However, after some time, there was a change in management and the new management proved to be crooked and incompetent which seriously undermines investor confidence. In my opinion, the company’s fundamentals have changed and it warrants a sell.
  • Secondly, I may have bought stock A due in part to the excellent industry (for example, technology industry) it is in. I have confidence in the founder and the senior management who have considerable experience in running this technology company. However, it suddenly announced a paradigm shift in business operations and paid a premium to venture into the property industry where it does not have the requisite experience. This signifies a change for the worse and one should consider re-evaluating his investment in stock A.

Valuations overshot fundamentals
  • Another situation which may warrant a “sell” is that valuations have overshot fundamentals. Take stock B as an example. You may have bought it at 10x FY10F Price to Earnings Ratio (PE). Due to your astute judgment, the price surged. After the surge, stock B trades at 40x FY10F PE vis-à-vis its peers which are trading at 15x FY10F PE. Stock B trades at 2.0x Price to Earnings Growth Ratio (PEG) against the industry mean of 1.0x PEG. Thus, according to these valuation metrics, stock B is richly valued against its peers which may have limited upside potential and high downside risk. This is another factor to consider whether to take the decision to sell.

Better usage of funds
Table 1 shows the existing portfolio of investments owned by an investor. These stocks have appreciated but they still have about 20% potential upside each.
Source: Ernest
Table 1: Stocks in existing portfolio (Source: Ernest)
Table 2 shows the stocks which the investor intends to buy. Besides the target return, I have made an assumption that the investments in both Tables 1 and have the same risk and all other factors necessary to justify the call to switch investments.
Source: Ernest
Table 2: Stocks which the investor intends to buy(Source: Ernest)
Having compared both Tables 1 and 2, ceteris paribus, stocks E and F offer a better return to risk ratio. If the investor is unable to put in fresh funds to buy these stocks, it may be wise to liquidate both stocks C and D so as to invest in stocks E & F.


Portfolio allocation
Assume that person A has S$100,000 and invests equally (i.e. 20%) in the following five stocks as depicted in Table 3 on 30 Mar 09. Markets have since rallied and some stocks have soared. Due to the sharp appreciation in Osim’s share price, it now occupies 62% of the entire portfolio. Thus, A’s portfolio return is significantly exposed to the gyrations of Osim’s share price. In my opinion, even if I believe that Osim has another 50% potential upside, I would still have divested part of Osim to reduce the significant exposure and reallocate my portfolio accordingly.
* Assume we can buy fractional shares for ease of reference.
Table 3: Portfolio – Assume we can buy fractional shares for ease of reference. (Source: Ernest)


Boom and bust cycle
Boom and bust can refer to the economy, as well as, the specific industry. According to Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), he believed that there are likely to be more boom and bust cycles. He pointed out that recoveries from post WWII recessions have become weaker on aspects concerning employment, growth and production. Secondly, there have been a surge in volatility in the economy, with a substantial decline starting in late 2008-early 2009 and a colossal surge since Mar 2009. BlackRock vice chairman, Bob Doll also shared the view that recessions are likely to be more frequent. The frequency may be up to twice in every decade as they revert to the mean. Typically, according to historical data, recessions happen about twice every decade, except for the two most recent decades. In times of recessions or bust, it is unlikely that stocks would appreciate as their earnings would be affected. Market sentiment on the stocks, as a general asset class would also be weak which would result in the underperformance of shares.
For those companies which operate in cyclical industries such as the rig building sector or the technology sector (e.g. hard disk drive), they are subject to the business cycle as shown in Table 4 below:
Source: Ernest
Table 4: Industry Life Cycle (Source: Ernest)
Thus, it is not ideal to hold stocks which operate in cyclical industries as they are exposed to the vagaries of the industry life cycle. Notwithstanding the companies’ sound fundamentals, it is difficult to register strong profits when the industries which they operate in are in the doldrums.


Conclusion – Selling is important too
I have listed some of the factors above which should justify a “sell” or at least warrant some thought on the investment decisions. Readers are advised to allocate as much time and effort on their “sell” choice as their “buy” choice. Remember – Selling is important too!
Ernest Lim currently works as an assistant treasury and investment manager. Prior to this role, he was with Legacy Capital Group Pte Ltd, a boutique asset management and private equity firm, as an investment manager since 2006. He received a Bachelor of Accountancy (Honours) from Nanyang Technological University in 2005. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst, as well as, a Certified Public Accountant Singapore. He is currently taking a short break before embarking on a new role.