myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Tongher

Company Name	:	TONG HERR RESOURCES BERHAD
Stock Name	:	TONGHER
Date Announced	:	29/11/2011

Financial Year End	:	31/12/2011
Quarter	:	3
Quarterly report for the financial period ended	:	30/09/2011
The figures	:	have not been audited

Converted attachment :

Please attach the full Quarterly Report here:

Appendix 1 Q311.pdf

Appendix 2 Q311 Notes.pdf


Currency	:	Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

30/09/2011

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD		CUMULATIVE PERIOD
		CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		30/09/2011	30/09/2010	30/09/2011	30/09/2010
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	148,375	96,201	457,274	218,642
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	7,804	10,694	41,965	26,388
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	6,074	9,548	38,856	22,851
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	4,060	8,371	28,538	18,472
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	3.19	6.57	22.43	14.50
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	0.00	0.00	8.00	5.00

		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	2.4700		2.3100

9 months ending 30.9.11

Income statement

Revenue 457.274m

Gross Profit 59.329m

PBT 41.965m

PAT 38.856m

Total comprehensive income attributable to:

Owners of the Company 28.296m

EPS attributable to owners of the Company

Basic 22.43 sen

Diluted N/A

Share of results of associates (0.027m)

Finance costs (0.978m)

Balance Sheet

NCA 199.827m

CA 377.181m

TOTAL ASSETS 577.008m

TOTAL EQUITY 396.567m

NCL 6.309

CL 174.132m

TOTAL LIABILITIES 180.441m

TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 577.008m

Investment in associates 59.591m

Inventories 204.449m

Trade and other receivables 58.454m

Trade and other payables 15.002m

Cash and cash equivalents 111.168m

LT borrowings 0m

ST borrowings 156.815m

Equity attributable to owners of the company 314.023m

Net asset per share RM 2.47

Dividend paid to owners of the company

30.9.2011 (7.639m)

30.9.2010 (6.370m)

Cash flow statement

Net cash from operating activities 29.129m

Net cash used in investing activities (27.227m)

Net cash from financing activities 32.055m

Segment profits (loss)

Manufacture and sale of stainless steel fasteners 31.693m

Manufacture and sale of aluminium and its related products 9.951m

Unallocated non-operating segments (0.064m)

Total 41.580m

Interest income 1.289m

Amortisation and depreciation 12.438m

Tax expense 3.109m

Prospects for the current financial year

Prospects for the global economy remain favorable in 2011 with continued improvements, especially in emerging and developing countries. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the Eurozone periphery are contributing to downside risks.

Meanwhile, in many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.

In view of this, the Board will streamline the corporate strategy and continue its marketing and cost containment efforts in order to remain competitive. The Board also diversifies the business into various markets to manage the risks. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Group is optimistic to attain a satisfactory level of performance for the current financial year.

Shares
Weighted average number of shares in issue 127.253m
The company did not have any dilutive potential ordinary shares during the financial period.

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
29-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	3	30-Sep-11	148,375	6,074	3.19	-
22-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	2	30-Jun-11	165,587	15,223	9.00	-
19-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	2	30-Jun-11	165,587	15,223	9.00	-
30-May-11	31-Dec-11	1	31-Mar-11	143,312	17,559	10.23	-

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	2.200	(08-Nov-11)	2.000	(28-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	2.200	(08-Nov-11)	1.860	(05-Oct-11)
Prices 12 Months	2.890	(04-Jan-11)	1.860	(05-Oct-11)
Volume 12 Months	9,697	(31-Dec-10)	5	(03-Oct-11)

Stock Performance Chart for Tong Herr Resources Berhad

Shares Outstanding: 127,312,000
Closely Held Shares: 80,247,142

23.11.2011

Price RM 2.03

PE 6.50x

DY 3.94%

Market cap 258.7m

Secrets of the share race

November 20, 2011

IT'S the only race where you can back the winner after it's started, place a new bet in the middle of it or quit losers well before the finish.

That's why Geoff Wilson, one of Australia's best fund managers, loves the sharemarket, though it's a marvel that so many still lose their shirts.

The portfolio of his listed investment company WAM Capital has returned more than 20 per cent a year since it started 13 years ago.

Now we have the inside dope from Matthew Kidman, Wilson's former right-hand man turned financial author. Wilson's racing analogy is in his book Bulls, Bears and a Croupier (published by Wiley, $34.95), which lets us in on the secrets.

One is that they get it wrong half the time.

Kidman says the trick is to cut your losses quickly - if a stock drops 10 per cent ''from the average cost of purchase'' it's sold - though there's no denying the ones they get right must be something else.

The truth is you can be right but wrong at the same time. Or to be more exact, have the right idea but get your timing wrong.

''It doesn't always pay to be right,'' he writes.

Nor does it pay to stay.

''I have come to the conclusion that most companies listed on the sharemarket are rubbish - they just have good periods,'' he writes.

Although blue-chip stocks ''have some fabulous periods'' these are invariably ''followed by long and unexplained lean periods''.

So Kidman says treat the market like a game of snakes and ladders. ''Your job is to jump from ladder to ladder.''

A reader will be struck by how many contacts a professional fund manager has - getting tips from brokers first hand and a foot in the door of chief executive's offices - yet Kidman says it is ordinary investors who have the advantage.

They can be more fleet-footed, can move in and out of cash and can deviate as much as they like from any sharemarket index.

But where to start?

''If I was to select a single financial indicator,'' Kidman says, it would be ''the earnings forecast for the year ahead, simply because the rest of the market is so sensitive to it''.

In fact, he argues ''an investor should never buy shares if a company has recently downgraded its earnings forecasts by more than 10 per cent''.

The other figure to watch is the price-earnings (P/E) ratio, which you can get off the sharemarket list or a broking website.

This tells you whether a stock is cheap (the lower the better) or not, though it's not infallible.

Usually used to compare stocks, for Kidman P/Es are more useful against themselves.

A stock's historic P/E will tell you whether it's a bargain or not. A sudden spike suggests it's on a roll that won't last.

Perversely, cyclical stocks - those that move most closely with household spending such as retailers - will often have a high P/E in bad times and low P/E in good times.

The reason is that when they're at their peak, the market anticipates a correction coming, so marks them down.

Another insight into market logic is the way that analysts can be unanimously wrong about a stock (think ABC Learning Centres).

''Stockbrokers will place price targets for the stock near the current share-price level and when the P/E ratio goes from, say, 10 to a head spinning 20, the analysts will generally follow with their valuations of the business.''

And so everybody gets sucked into the vortex.

But in the end it's the quality of management that makes the difference and it's a hard call.

Don't think chief executives with a decent shareholding will have the same interests as you, either. They have their own agenda and, in any case, are also responsible for employees and customers.

And don't be your own worst enemy by being subjective about your stocks.

Kidman says: ''View your portfolio as if you had inherited it from someone else.''

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/money/secrets-of-the-share-race-20111119-1no0a.html#ixzz1f5du25h5

Value of UK private sector pensions plummet by 16.7pc this year

When it comes to pensions, public sector workers are much better off than their private sector counterparts, a leading pensions expert says.

The value of private sector pensions have fallen by 16.7pc this year amid falling gilt yields and volatile stock markets. Photo: Howard McWilliam

2:57PM GMT 28 Nov 2011

Many private sector workers retiring today will be 16pc worse off in retirement than private sector workers who retired a year ago because of falling annuity rates and volatile stock markets.

Someone with £100,000 at the beginning of the year would have been able to buy an income of £6,474. Today, that pension fund would be worth just £91,163 - this would only be able to secure an annual income of £5,387 - a drop of £1,087.

Unlike public sector pensions, private sector pensions in so-called defined contribution schemes are affected by stock markets and annuity rates, which dictate your pension income. Since the beginning of the year, the average balanced managed fund has lost around 8.8pc. At the same time, annuity rates have fallen from 6.74pc for a 65 year old man to 5.91pc (level single life annuity). The combined effect of these market movements has been to drive down the pensions purchasing power of someone in a typical private sector money purchase pension by 16.7pc.

Tom McPhail, pensions expert at Hargreaves Lansdown said that when it comes to pensions, public sector workers are very much better off than their private sector counterparts. They also earn on average 7.8pc more than private sector workers (source ONS).

He added: "Life expectancy in retirement has increased substantially in recent years, from around 14 years at age 65 in 1980 to around 21 years in 2010; to date this has not been offset by commensurate increases in member contributions from public sector workers. Members are receiving larger pensions simply by virtue of their longer life expectancy so for the unions to argue that their members are having to pay more to get less ignores the fact that they will be getting their incomes paid for several more years.

"We have a lot of sympathy with public sector workers who are being asked to pay more and work longer, especially as this is coming from politicians who haven’t had the good sense to reform their own pension first. However the uncomfortable reality for most of us is that we are going to have to work longer, save more, spend less and even then we may get smaller pensions than we’d hoped for."

Most private sector companies have closed final salary schemes or defined benefit schemes because of crippling deficits, rising life expectancy and poor investment returns. Just two FTSE 100 companies, Amec and Shell, still offer defined benefit schemes to new staff, according to Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, the consultants. Instead, workers in the private sector are now encouraged to join DC schemes, which are fundamentally different and inferior to defined benefit schemes.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/8920825/Value-of-private-sector-pensions-plummet-by-16.7pc-this-year.html

Iceland wins in the end

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: November 28th, 2011

The OECD has come very close to predicting a depression for Europe unless EU leaders conjure up a lender-of-last resort very quickly, and somehow manage to make the world believe that the EFSF bail-out fund really exists.

Even if disaster is avoided, the eurozone growth forecast is dreadful. Italy, Portugal, Greece will all contract through 2012, while Spain, France, Netherlands, and Germany will bounce along the bottom.

Unemployment will reach 18.5pc in Greece, 22.9pc in Spain, 14.1pc in Ireland, 13.8pc in Portugal.

Yet Iceland stands out, with 2.4pc growth and unemployment tumbling to 6.1. Well, well.

Here is the box from the OECD.

Iceland's policy of drastic devaluation with capital controls has not proved to be the disaster that so many foretold. Its refusal to accept the full burden of private bank losses has not turned the country into leper-land.

The nation has held its social fabric together. Had Iceland been in the eurozone, it would have been forced to pursue the same reactionary polices of "internal devaluation" and debt deflation being inflicted today on the mass ranks of unemployed across the arc of depression.

Sorry I could not resist posting this. Shame on me.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013462/iceland-wins-in-the-end/

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Tongher

Market Watch

Secrets of the share race

Value of UK private sector pensions plummet by 16.7pc this year

Iceland wins in the end

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Tongher

Market Watch

Secrets of the share race

Value of UK private sector pensions plummet by 16.7pc this year

RELATED ARTICLES

Iceland wins in the end