Recovering your market losses?

Saturday May 2, 2009
Recovering your market losses?
MARKETS
By SHERILYN FOONG


THESE challenging times for investors demand a well-thought out, personalised and well-diversified investment strategy. (Always important to have a good investment philosophy and strategy.)

Hard, tough and painful decisions will have to be made, be it in the cruel form of “amputation, that is cutting steep losses on stock duds, or ploughing in more good money (after bad?) via participation in invested companies’ cash calls. (It can be painful to cut the losses, sell the losers. But it is required surgery.)

However; the hardest decision to make is really regarding your personal risk appetite: should you or can you afford to take on more risk so as to (hopefully) recover some of your market losses in your investment portfolio? (Knowing one's ability and willingness to take risk is important. This has to do with the wealth effect, the house money effect, modest diversification and also knowing asset allocation.)

Do or die?

One needs to look at the current global scenario and form some rational conclusions involving an element of personal judgment calls. (The truth is no one knows the future. Just observe the experts giving opinions on CNBC. There are just as many on either sides of the argument. Decision should be a personal one based on ability to take risk. In particular, knowing the consequences of your decision is more important than the probabilities of the outcomes, which arguably is uncertain.)

From there-on, the decision as to whether or not you can or should take on more risk can be a highly daunting task.

But it cannot be helped because the alternative passive option of doing nothing can be even riskier! (Yes, if the consequences of a further fall in your portfolio can force you to do something silly. This assumes that the portfolio was constituted to be a winner. Of course, sell the losers, let the winners run. No easy solution here. There are errors of omission and commission too. But in this very down market, and for those with longer time frame in their investment, the probable upside gain compared to the downside loss is more likely favourable.)

A good starting point can be from taking a good look at all the stimulus packages announced globally and all that has been and still is being done by central banks the world over to stabilise and stimulate the global financial systems and real economies respectively, where the verdict as to its success and effectiveness is still out there. (Ah, looking at the macroeconomics and then adopt a top-down approach to pick stocks. It is just as profitable and safe to start at the micro level and select individual businesses. This is probably easier for the majority of the investors who may not be economists.)

The encouraging news is that some signs of bottoming out are in sight. Sure, one may prefer to opt for more concrete and sustainable evidence of recovery before taking on more risk. (Averaging down is also safe, ignoring some investors who preached this to be unsafe. This strategy is particularly useful for those who can value stocks. Buying a good quality stock at below the "intrinsic value" (that is, a bargain) ensures a margin of safety for possible loss should the decision turns out to be adversely affected by future events. Moreover, buying low ensures a higher return in the future.)

But such a typical “wait and see first” stance is not without its own risk. Because when that happens, when it’s a sure fire conclusion that the said policies have been accurately effective, the ever-efficient and nimble markets would have priced that in rather quickly such that taking risk at those material levels would prove more costly. (Missing the few best days of the market can also reduce one's potential gains significantly. Another is when the market starts to rally, some investors remain frozen outside the market. There is no easy answer for those who attempt to time the market. Staying invested long term based on a good investing philosophy and strategy is safe.)

The market’s ‘Limbo Rock’

What comes to mind here is the investment nugget blink of an eye move of Citigroup stock from a penny stock to multiple top performer before you can say “I’ll take the risk!”.

On this note, I would like to quote my wise friend Kumar who recently told me, ”Keep your money in Bank Simpanan and watch TV!”. Enough said.

The wealth preservation argument prevails here: suppose the markets fall substantially from here, hence doing nothing now and preserving what is left would turn out to be the best strategy. (Now that this chap is out of the market, when would be the right time for him to get back into the market? In the long run, the stocks give a better return compared to savings in the banks. Timing the market works for some "investors"; however, buying and selling stocks based on price is what guides the value investors. Once again, "The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more.* Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement." - Benjamin Graham )

Playing God

However, what if the market has indeed bottomed and is in the long, slow but steady progress of recovery?

True, no one has perfect foresight. But it’s important to have a calculated and informed view on investments as opposed to pure speculation or it is no different from casino play.

It is imperative to form a personal view of the market outlook to form the foundation of your investment decisions.

This personal investment decision-making process also incorporates your personal investment objectives which has to be realistic. High returns come with higher risks. (There are quite a few stocks delivering 7% - 8% annual return with little downside risks that investors can buy for the long term in our local market. The harder task is to seek out higher returns without undue unacceptable risks.)

Going through this personal investment thought process is a practical exercise in figuring out your acceptable risk levels. (Yes, an investor should regularly goes through this exercise with the preexisting portfolio. Tracking one's investment and reassessing the individual stocks for returns versus risks is part and parcel of intelligent investing.)

Bear in mind that extremely high levels of fear in the markets often exaggerates the real market risk. (And this is the best time to invest in the market, when the fear is at its highest. One need to be wired or re-wired to take advantage of this.)

The lessons of diversification

Over the last year of unprecedented crunch, investors have been battered by losses across almost all asset classes and thus, are predictably retreating from further investing in a herd-like manner. (Faced with this uncertainty, how should one react? Those with the right philosophy and strategy well thought out and observed strictly will be better guided. Understanding the consequences of risk is paramount.)

The point that has been missed is really, how much would have been lost if there had been no diversification at all? (Start with the asset allocation that is appropriate based on various personal factors, including your risk tolerance. According to Buffett, after diversifying into 6 stocks, the 7th stock is unlikely to give a higher return though the risk may be lower.)

Despite the unfortunate highly positive correlation among almost all asset classes in the current financial crisis, one should only look at the converse situation to conclude that diversification still has its magic.

>Sherilyn Foong, who is attached to a private equity firm, believes that the only thing constant in the market is its inconstancy. So, she maintains that the markets will surprise, as they always do.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/5/2/business/3819025&sec=business

Compounded Effects of Market Underperformance

Compounded Effects of Market Underperformance

Beating the market with even slightly higher rates of return is a shorter path to wealth. This is especially true if the investments are left on the table to perform, and perform consistently, over time.

What about investments achieving less than market average return?

What happens when you cling to these investments?

Are they like a bad marriage, not only producing inferior returns but also consuming valuable time that you could put to work elsewhere?

From an investment perspective, yes.

Click to view:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=r59JmWu8jkHxD7HKgWcvKUA

The table illustrates that it isn't hard to show what happens when you hang on to the losers, or even the inferior "winners."

Compared to market returns of 10%, an investor underperforming the market by 2% (or achieving an 8% return) falls 7% behind a market performer after 10 years, 31% behind over 20 years, and 42% behind over 30 years. An investor underperforming by 6%, loses 43 %, 67%, and 81% to the market performing investor over 10, 20, and 30 years respectively.

That's quite a price to pay for underperformance.

Now, if your investments are producing negative returns, the results can be quite ugly indeed.

LESSON in these numbers: Don't hang on to chronic losers! Not only do you lose, but you also lose out on opportunities to gain. If it's broke, fix it!

What the Swine Flu Panic Means for Your Portfolio

"Buying low makes it a lot easier to sell high."

What the Swine Flu Panic Means for Your Portfolio
By Seth Jayson April 27, 2009 Comments (24)

It's a delicate subject, and people's lives are at risk, so I'll state right here, up top, that I do not intend to make light of this public health concern. I share the sympathies that we all have for individuals afflicted by the swine flu. (I've experienced a delirium-packed, 10-day version of the usual seasonal flu, and I wouldn't wish this illness on my worst enemy.)

That said, the reactions of the investing community already look ridiculous: "Markets Down on Swine Flu" read the headlines. Other writers will try to convince you to pile into vaccine names like GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), or companies like Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX), for which a simplistic, "stay-at-home" argument can be made. This is simply rank trend speculation in reverse.

How to really profit
If you really want to find opportunities relating to the swine flu story, I suggest you do the opposite of what most people are advocating. For instance, consider inverting one particularly brazen and short-sighted call that was reported by Bloomberg this morning: UBS downgrades Mexican stocks from "top pick" to "underweight" because of the swine flu.

Really? An entire country's strongest businesses will be permanently impaired because of this health crisis? Would you write off entire segments of the U.S. economy if the illness got worse here? Would you sell Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)? Ditch Home Depot (NYSE: HD)?

Sure, the Mexican economy is generally more fragile than ours, but most of the big-name firms trading on our exchanges are anything but weak. Beverage and minimart king FEMSA will likely sell fewer soft drinks and beers over the coming weeks. Will Gruma sell fewer tortillas, Industrias Bachoco fewer chicken chunks? Probably.

Will this matter for the long term?
Very unlikely If you are investing in strong names for the long term -- and that's how you should be investing -- these are the times when you should be more interested in buying stocks, not less. Flu epidemics are terrible, but they're also normal. So are economic cycles and (in Mexico) the occasional currency panic.

Buying good companies when the headline news is bad is the hardest thing to do (psychologically), but it's the simplest way to buy low. And buying low makes it a lot easier to sell high.

That's the takeaway from the two wealthiest investors in the world -- Warren Buffett and Carlos Slim, who made their fortunes buying companies with competitive advantages on the cheap, often during times of uncertainty. Despite recessions, oil shocks, currency convulsions, SARS, and bird flu, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B), Telmex, and America Movil (NYSE: AMX) have made them very wealthy.

We've recently revamped Motley Fool Hidden Gems, putting real money into small-cap stocks, to enable us to take advantage of exactly this kind of short-term market craziness. At times like this, we're more interested in our favorite Mexican stocks: Grupo Aeroportuario del Sur and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico. As monopoly airport operators with high fixed costs, both would see turbulence due to a temporary dip in air travel (one they're already getting thanks to the economy).

But in the long term, monopolies like these thrive and enrich shareholders. Ditto the major players I mentioned further up. So unless you think Mexico is forever on the wane, it's time to look at buying these stocks, not selling them.

Seth Jayson is co-advisor at Motley Fool Hidden Gems. He owns shares of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sur, FEMSA, and Berkshire Hathaway. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico and Grupo Aeroportuario del Sur are Hidden Gems recommendations. Berkshire Hathaway and Netflix are Motley Fool Stock Advisor selections. Berkshire Hathaway and The Home Depot are Motley Fool Inside Value selections. Procter & Gamble is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. America Movil and FEMSA are Global Gains picks. The Fool owns shares of Procter & Gamble and Berkshire Hathaway. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2009/04/27/what-the-swine-flu-panic-means-for-your-portfolio.aspx

****Shopping for Value: A Practical Approach

Shopping for Value: A Practical Approach


Trading off between philosophy and practicality
Shopping for Value: A Practical Approach
The Thought Process Is What Counts

Understanding different kinds of value investing situations
Recognizing Value Situations
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth at a Reasonable Price
Recognizing Value Situations - The Fire Sale
Recognizing Value Situations - The Asset Play
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth Kickers
Recognizing Value Situations - Turning the Ship Around
Recognizing Value Situations - Cyclical Plays
Recognizing Value Situations - Smoke and Mirrors

Using a condensed appraisal approach and check list
Short Form for Value Appraisal

Managing your value investments once purchased
Keeping track of your investments
Making the "sell decision"

Making the "sell decision"

Making the "sell decision"

And now, the hardest part.

"You thought 'marrying' the stock was difficult, full of unknowns and subjective assessments? Try the divorce!"

In investing, selling can be one of the hardest things to do. Investors get emotionally vested in their decisions, and hangin on becomes more a matter of hope - and desire to be right "after all" - than a rational, conscious decision based on a company's merit.

True value investors don't think this way. Value investors watch their businesses perform just as a good manager would, and when they stop performing, they get out. It's really one of the great attributes of stock investing: Investors don't get the headaches that managers and small business owners get. When things turn, or when a better opportunity arises, they can just sell and move on. The upshot: Keep track the company's story, and be ready to reappraise and move on if the new appraisal comes up short.

The "sell decision"

A condensed thought process and framework may help. Most experienced investors know that selling takes more discipline and can be more difficult than buying.

For value investors, the main rule about selling is this: The thought process is similar to the buying decision. A business must be a good business to consider owning it, and the price must reflect, or be lower than, the value of the business.

1. If the price exceeds the value of the business, it's time to sell.

Additionally, value investors should consider selling when:

2. The business changes: Any change in fundamentals or the intangibles that drive them signal at least a re-evaluation, and perhaps a sale, of the business. So a changing marketplace, supply chain, interest rates, cost structure, management team - you name it - can trigger a reassessment and sale.

3. There's something else better to buy: Your company may be good, but perhaps there's a better ne out there. Selling should only be done when there's something else better to buy, even if that "something else" is a fixed income cash deposit or a rental property or even a vacation home. If 5 percent risk-free is better than your investment right now, then that's the "better thing to buy." If there isn't something better to buy, then your investment is probably okay.

4. When you need the money: No additional explanation necessary.

Keeping track of your investments

Keeping track of your investments

"The speed of business is higher, and the speed of business change has increased. To hold a stock with a long-term goal of forever is a great idea, but things change so fast it just may not be possible."

Supposedly, a value stock was to be acquired and kept for a long time, even a lifetime. True, but especially in today's world of change, business fortunes can turn on a dime, either as a result of macroeconomic and industry factors, or micro problems that escaped your initial read and surfaced during ownership.

According to a recent study, the average stock fund holds a stock for 1.2 years, down from 3 years in 1976. Some funds "trade" actively, but most don't - they simply react to change in business and business conditions.

The point is that you have to keep up with your investments, even after purchase. If you were fortunate enough to do a good job up front, nighttime sleep should come easy. Stability and consistency are good things to have. But no longer is it possible to buy a company and stuff the stock certificate into your mattress. Even Buffett sells shares, and sells them every year.

The best way to keep track is to use many of the same tools used to make the investment decision in the first place. Watch the financials and intangibles through Yahoo! Finance, quarterly Value Line updates, and of course, the newspaper. Repeating the "short-form" appraisal every now and then doesn't hurt either.

Making the Value Judgement in Practice

Making the Value Judgement in Practice

It is important to have a practical, simplified model for picking out value investments.

The goal is to boil the selection process down to something that could be handled in a half an hour or less per company.


One wouldn't commit $10 million in capital to a company based on this analysis, but it provides grounds for making small investments or pursuing further research.


At the end of the drill, you should, as Peter Lynch suggests, be able to tell the story of a stock to family, friends and favourite pets. And most of all, to be able to understand, yourself, why you like or don't like a business as an investment.

Short Form for Value Appraisal

Making the Value Judgement in Practice

It is important to have a practical, simplified model for picking out value investments.

The goal is to boil the selection process down to something that could be handled in a half an hour or less per company.

One wouldn't commit $10 million in capital to a company based on this analysis, but it provides grounds for making small investments or pursuing further research.

At the end of the drill, you should, as Peter Lynch suggests, be able to tell the story of a stock to family, friends and favourite pets.

And most of all, to be able to understand, yourself, why you like or don't like a business as an investment.

----------


SHORT FORM FOR VALUE APPRAISAL

COMPANY:

DATE:

SHARE PRICE:

VALUE SITUATIONS:

GARP

ASSET PLAY (P/B)

- UNDERVALUED,

- S.O.P. (SUM OF PARTS)

- SMOKE/MIRROR/MIRAGE

GROWTH KICKERS

TURNAROUND

CYCLICAL

------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------GRADE -----TREND
---------------------------------------- "A" - "F" ---- +,0,-
------------------------------------------------------------COMMENTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FINANCIALS
OVERALL

ROE steady or rising, and/or > 20%
Gross margin increasing
Operating margins increasing
Net profit margins increasing
Asset and unit productivity improving
Cash generator: net producer of cash or capital
Cash position
Debt profile
Return to shareholders (dividend, net share repurchase)
Consistent performance
Strength compared to competition and industry
Other:

---------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------

INTANGIBLES
OVERALL

Market power - brand, share, customer loyalty
Long term growth vectors
Strong, effective management
Pursuit of shareholder interests
Favorable "SWOT" analysis (attach)
Other:

-------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------

VALUATION
OVERALL

Price vs Intrinsic value
P/E and earnings yield
PEG <2
P/S <3
P/B <5
Other:

--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

Teaching Your Partner About Household Finances

Teaching Your Partner About Household Finances
by Amy Fontinelle (Contact Author Biography)


Often, only one person in the household is responsible for maintaining the family budget and managing the household's finances - and if you're reading this article, that person is probably you.

But what if you died or became incapacitated and could no longer manage the budget? Or what if you're just tired of managing everything yourself, or you partner wants to become more involved in your household's finances? How do you teach your partner everything you know?

This article will outline the areas you should be sure to cover and the steps you should take to give your partner a clear picture of your household's financial situation and the confidence to take over. (For more information on sharing the household finances, read Why You Shouldn't Let Your Partner Do The Books.)


1. Make a list of everything and where it's located.

While you may be able to finish each other's sentences, don't assume your significant other possesses the intuition to know where you keep sensitive information. You may think your filing system couldn't be any more organized and that your financial records are in a pretty obvious location, but your partner might not. While you probably have printed documents related to some of your financial affairs, there's a good chance some of your information is stored solely in your memory bank, as you probably manage some of your finances online. Without access to your email to receive monthly statement reminders, your partner probably doesn't know how to find all of your online accounts, and may not even know which banks and brokerage companies you use, not to mention all the bills you pay. A list of all of your accounts makes it easy for your partner to see everything that needs to be addressed. (For more, see Say "I Do To Financial Compatibility.)

2. Make sure your partner has access to everything.

Just knowing that these accounts exist won't be enough. If you want your partner to be able to take charge, you'll have to give him or her full access. Get your partner a set of keys to any safety deposit boxes, divulge the code to your safe and point out which tree in the backyard is beside where you buried the money. Make sure your partner is a named account holder or the primary beneficiary on all major accounts, life insurance policies and any property you own. Also, make sure he or she knows how to access any important computer files and online accounts. (Life changes may mean it's time to update you estate plan. For more information read Update Your Beneficiaries.)

If you're worried about writing your sensitive information down because of the possibility that the wrong person might find it, you're not alone. Here are some options for making your information available to the right person while keeping it safe from criminals (or ill-intentioned relatives).

Put your list in a safe deposit box at the bank. Make sure your significant other has a key and is listed with the bank as being allowed to access the box. Obviously, this is best for emergency situations, not daily use.

Make your list electronic and store it as an encrypted, password-protected file. Make sure your partner knows how to locate and access the file and that you have at least one backup copy in a separate location in case the first file is lost or corrupted.

Encrypt your list the old-fashioned way. Create logins and passwords that have meaning only to you and your partner. This way, your written list can consist of prompts or reminders to your logins and passwords instead of the complete codes. If one of your passwords was the name of the restaurant where you went on your first date plus the date you acquired your dog, the password prompt you wrote down could be "marcos07xxxx" or "first date restaurant+dogbday". (Learn more in Keep Your Financial Data Safe Online.)

3. Explain what everything is and why it's important.

People tend to complete tasks more successfully when they understand the purpose of what they are doing. Just telling your partner that "this account is where we put our savings," isn't as good as explaining why you choose to put your savings there ("we get the best interest rate at this bank"). Likewise, saying "we have to pay x dollars a month for y," isn't as helpful as explaining why you make the payment. For example, if your partner doesn't know what long-term care insurance is and why you're paying for a policy on your mother's behalf, he or she might cancel the policy. (For more, see A New Approach To Long-Term Care Insurance.)

4. Maintain a household budget.

Maybe you're not the type who needs to write everything down to successfully manage your money, but a budget is an excellent way to give your partner a big-picture idea of all the money in play - the income, the debts, the recurring expenses, the investments and so on. It can also help your partner pick up where you left off in managing the household's finances if you die or become incapacitated. (Learn more about household budgeting in our related articles: Six Months To A Better Budget and The Beauty Of Budgeting.)

5. Have your partner watch you handle the finances.

Explaining things is helpful, and written instructions/checklists/spreadsheets are even better, but nothing beats sitting down with your partner and talking through actually managing the finances. Let your partner observe the process while you explain it, and then have him or her practice it with your help and guidance.

6. Gradually give your partner some financial responsibility.

If your partner currently doesn't handle the money at all, start off with a small, manageable task - preferably one with low stakes. For example, make your partner responsible for paying one small bill each month - something with a generous grace period on the payment due date, like the electric bill. As he or she become more adept, give additional tasks to manage. Eventually, have your partner handle all the finances for one month (with your supervision, of course). Then, try switching off months, with your partner handling the finances every other month until you both feel completely comfortable.

7. Discuss contingency plans.

Make sure your partner knows what you would do in an emergency or unplanned financial event. Don't just be conceptual - discuss actual, concrete strategies to handle unplanned events. If you received a windfall, which debts would you want to pay off? What are your savings priorities? Is there any charity to which you would donate a significant sum? On the other end of the spectrum, if there was a sudden loss of income, which bills would need to be prioritized, and which expenses could be reduced or dropped altogether? (To learn more about dealing with personal financial changes, read Competing Priorities: Too Many Choices, Too Few Dollars.)

8. Encourage your partner's ongoing education.

Your partner may be loathe to pick up a personal finance book on a Saturday afternoon, but reading the occasional article will get your partner learning about money at a manageable pace.

Conclusion

To teach your partner how to handle the household finances, take the time to provide him or her with a complete picture of your household's financial situation and provide access to all important accounts. Then, gradually teach your partner enough to ease your financial management burden or get by in an emergency. These may not be the most entertaining activities, but they are key to taking the best possible care of one of the most important people in your life. (For more reading on managing your personal finances, check out Run Your Personal Finances Like A Business.)

by Amy Fontinelle, (Contact Author Biography)

Amy Fontinelle is a freelance writer and editor with clients located across the United States and in Canada. She has written over 300 published articles and blog posts for a variety of national and local publications and websites on topics including travel, restaurants, food and drink, fitness, budgeting, credit management, real estate, investing and historic preservation. Her articles have been featured on the homepage of Yahoo! and on Yahoo! Finance, Yahoo! HotJobs, several local news websites and Forbes.com. You can read more of Amy's personal finance articles at Two Pennies Earned, her own personal finance website, and at PF Advice, one of the web's leading personal finance blogs.





http://investopedia.com/articles/pf/09/teaching-partner-household-finances.asp?partner=basics5

Market trend

Statues of the two symbolic beasts of finance (the bull and bear) in front of Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

Market trend

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A Market trend is the direction in which a financial market is moving. Market trends can be classified as primary trends, secondary trends (short-term), and secular trends (long-term). This principle incorporates the idea that market cycles occur with regularity and persistence. This belief is considered to be generally consistent with the practice of technical analysis and broadly inconsistent with the standard academic view of financial markets, the efficient market hypothesis. [1] Another academic viewpoint is that market prices follow a random walk model and that any apparent past 'trends' are purely an accumulation of random variations and do not serve as a predictor for future performance. Random walk theory suggests that it is therefore not possible to outperform the general market using traditional evaluations of its "fundamentals" or by using technical analysis. [2]

However, the assumption that market prices move in trends is one of the major components of technical analysis,[3] and consideration of market trends is common to most Wall Street investors. Market trends are described as sustained movements in market prices over a period of time. The terms bull market and bear market describe upward and downward movements respectively and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities (stocks). The expressions "bullish" and "bearish" can also mean optimistic and pessimistic respectively ("bullish on gold," or "bearish on technology stocks", etc).

Contents[hide]
1 Primary market trends
1.1 Bull market
1.2 Bear market
1.3 Market bottom
2 Secondary market trends
3 Secular market trends
4 Market events
5 Cause of market events
6 Technical analysis
7 Etymology
8 Historic examples
9 See also
10 References
11 External links

Primary market trends
A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market or market sector and lasts for a year or more.

Bull market
A bull market tends to be associated with increasing investor confidence, motivating investors to buy in anticipation of future price increases and future capital gains. In describing financial market behavior, the largest group of market participants is often referred to, metaphorically, as a herd. This is especially relevant to participants in bull markets since bulls are herding animals. A bull market is also sometimes described as a bull run. Dow Theory attempts to describe the character of these market movements.

India's BSE Index SENSEX was in a bull run for almost five years from April 2003 to January 2008 as it increased from 2,900 points to 21,000 points. Another notable and recent bull market was in the 1990s when the U.S. and many other global financial markets rose rapidly.

Bear market
A bear market is a steady drop in the stock market over a period of time.[4] It is described as being accompanied by widespread pessimism. Investors anticipating further losses are often motivated to sell, with negative sentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle. The most famous bear market in history followed the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and lasted from 1930 to 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression. A milder, low-level, long-term bear market occurred from about 1973 to 1982, encompassing the stagflation of U.S. economy, the 1970s energy crisis, and the high unemployment of the early 1980s. Due to the current economic conditions (be it the steady decline in value of the market or the high unemployment rate) the United States of America is currently in a bear market. High ranking economic evaluators as well as upper end public officials have coined America's current situation as a "recession."

Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market. To take the example of a bear stock market, it is not a simple decline, but a substantial drop in the prices of the majority of stocks over a defined period of time. According to The Vanguard Group, "While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period."[5]

Market bottom
A stock market bottom is a trend reversal - the end of a market downturn and the beginning of an upward moving trend. "Bottom" is more than just a recent low in a stock market index, but a reversal of the primary trend. A "bottom" may occur because of the presence of a "cycle," or because of "panic selling" as a reaction to an adverse financial development.

It is very difficult to identify a bottom (referred to by investors as "bottom picking") while it is occurring. The upturn following a decline is often shortlived and prices might resume their decline. This would bring a loss for the investor who purchased stock(s) during a misperceived or "false" market bottom.

Some of the more notable market bottoms, in terms of the closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) include:
Black Monday: The DJIA hit a bottom at 1738.74 on 10/19/1987, as a result of the decline from 2722.41 on 8/25/1987 (Chart [6]).
The bursting of the Dot-com bubble: A bottom of 7286.27 was reached on the DJIA on 10/9/2002 as a result of the decline from 11722.98 on 1/14/2000. This included an intermediate bottom of 8235.81 on 9/21/2001 which led to an intermediate top of 10635.25 on 3/19/2002 (Chart [7]).
A decline associated with the Subprime mortgage crisis starting at 14164.41 on 10/9/2007 (DJIA) and caused a short term bottom of 11740.15 on 3/10/2008. After a rallying to a temporary top on 5/2/2008 at 13058.20 the primary trend of the declining, "bear" market, resumed. (Chart [8]).

Baron Rothschild is said to have advised that the best time to buy is when there is "blood in the streets", i.e. when the markets have fallen drastically and investor sentiment is extremely negative[9].

Secondary market trends
Secondary trends are short-term changes in price direction against a primary trend. They usually last between a few weeks and a few months. Whether a trend is a secondary trend, or the beginning of a primary trend, can only be known once it has either ended or has exceeded the extent of a secondary trend.

A decline in prices during a primary trend bull market is called a market correction. A correction is usually a decline of 10% to 20%, but some experts say it can be a third or more.[10] It differs from a bear market mostly in that it has a smaller magnitude and duration.

An increase in prices during a primary trend bear market is called a bear market rally. A bear market rally is sometimes defined as an increase of 10% to 20%. Bear market rallies typically begin suddenly and are often short-lived. Notable bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei stock average has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall long-term downward trend.

Secular market trends
A secular market trend is a long-term trend that usually lasts 5 to 25 years (but whose distribution is more or less bell shaped around 17 years, in the stock market), and consists of sequential primary trends. In a secular bull market the primary bear markets have in the past almost always been shorter and less punishing than the primary bull markets were rewarding. Each bear market has rarely (if ever) wiped out the real (inflation adjusted) gains of the previous bull markets, and the succeeding bull markets have usually made up for the real losses of any previous bear markets. This is one of the reasons why a secular market trend may be said to encompass the primary trends within it. The United States was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000, with brief upsets including the crash of 1987 and the dot-com bust of 2000–2002.

In a secular bear market, the primary bull markets are sometimes shorter than the primary bear markets and rarely compensate for the real losses of the primary bear markets occurring during this extended cycle. For example, in the 1966–82 secular bear market in stocks, there was hardly any nominal loss. But in real terms the loss was devastating. (In the past most housing recessions were of a slow nature, thereby allowing inflation to keep housing prices steady.) Another example of a secular bear market was seen in gold during the period between January 1980 to June 1999. During this period the nominal gold price fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g),[11] and became part of the Great Commodities Depression. The S&P 500 experienced a secular bull market over a similar time period (~1982–2000).

Market events
Main articles: Stock market crash and Stock market bubble
An exaggerated bear market, that tends to be associated with falling investor confidence and panic selling, can lead to a market crash associated with a recession. By contrast, an exaggerated bull market fueled by overconfidence and / or speculation can lead to a market bubble — characterized by an extreme inflation of the price / earnings P/E ratios of the stocks in that market.

Cause of market events
Market movements may respond to new information becoming available to the market, but may also be influenced by investors' cognitive biases and emotional biases. Expectations play a large part in financial markets. Often there will be significant price reaction to financial data, information or news. Unexpected news or information that is perceived as positive for the economy or for a particular market sector or company will of course increase stock prices, and vice versa. Some behavioral finance studies (Richard Thaler) also point to the impact of the underreaction-adjustment-overreaction process in the formation of market movements and trends.

Technical analysis
Main article: Technical analysis
Many investors and analysts use technical analysis to try to identify whether a market or security is likely to increase or decrease in value. They then generate trading strategies to exploit their conclusions and market insights. Some technical analysts believe that the financial markets are cyclical and move in and out of bull and bear market phases on a regular and consistent basis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trends

Also read:

What Is a Bear Market? http://www.fool.com/retirement/retireeport/2000/retireeport000717.htm

Recognizing Value Situations - Smoke and Mirrors

Recognizing Value Situations - Smoke and Mirrors

Some apparent asset plays can be a mirage. Find a company selling at a low price to book (P/B), look at assets, and notice that per-share assets are higher than the share price. Is it a good buy?

Depends on the quality and liquidity of the assets on the books.

Large manufacturers and other capital-intensive companies often have overvalued assets on the books. If the assets are largely based on buildings, equipment, and intangibles, watch out; but if they are cash, securities, marketable natural resourcees, land, and the like, there may be an asset-play opportunity.

If there is a large cash hoard exceeding debt, make sure the company is cash flow positive or nearly so. You don't want this cash to disappear as "cash burn."

Also read:
Recognizing Value Situations
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth at a Reasonable Price
Recognizing Value Situations - The Fire Sale
Recognizing Value Situations - The Asset Play
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth Kickers
Recognizing Value Situations - Turning the Ship Around
Recognizing Value Situations - Cyclical Plays
Recognizing Value Situations - Smoke and Mirrors

Recognizing Value Situations - Cyclical Plays

Recognizing Value Situations - Cyclical Plays

Generally, cyclical companies shouldn't be confused with value investments. Growth, although apparent in the short term, usually isn't sustainable. Investors are getting wiser and aren't as likely to bid up prices in good times, nor bid them way down in bad times, so this form of market timing doesn't work as well.

But occasionally companies caught in the cyclical pool come up with strategies to climb out of it, and move more steadily up and to the right International expansion can reduce cyclical effects.

Manufacturing companies diversify into more recession-proof financial services (which make more money as poor business conditions beget lower interest rates). General Electric has figured this out, and Ford has tried. Other smaller companies may have more effective cycle-beating strategies, because it's hard to keep such big ships as Ford and GE from turning when the wind shifts. If a company seems cheap and has something new in its portfolio to avoid cyclical price and earnings behaviour, it may be worth a look.

Also read:
Recognizing Value Situations
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth at a Reasonable Price
Recognizing Value Situations - The Fire Sale
Recognizing Value Situations - The Asset Play
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth Kickers
Recognizing Value Situations - Turning the Ship Around
Recognizing Value Situations - Cyclical Plays
Recognizing Value Situations - Smoke and Mirrors

Recognizing Value Situations - Turning the Ship Around

Recognizing Value Situations - Turning the Ship Around

Many companies go through restructuring, downsizing, and spinning off businesses deemed not vital to the core business. There is usually a "back-to-basics" and "focus" theme to these events, and they usually occur after extended periods of poor business results.

U.S. automakers (particularly Chrysler) went through this years ago and are obviously doing it again, exemplified by Ford's "Way Forward" campaign. Airlines have done it, albeit with mixed results, and it's likely that the banking and lending industrywill have to do the same.

Do turnarounds works? According to Buffett and many other professionals, generally not.

A few do succeed, and when they do, there's usually a big impact on shareholder value. It happened with Chrysler, and again with Hewlett-Packard (whose problems, notably, were not as severe).

Determining worthy value investments in these situations is difficult. Probably the best approach is to try to place a value on the core remaining business, as many did with HP's core printing business; then try to imagine how other units would fare either in a sale or with a successful turnaround. Again here, the work of professionals shouldn't be ignored.


Also read:
Recognizing Value Situations
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth at a Reasonable Price
Recognizing Value Situations - The Fire Sale
Recognizing Value Situations - The Asset Play
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth Kickers
Recognizing Value Situations - Turning the Ship Around
Recognizing Value Situations - Cyclical Plays
Recognizing Value Situations - Smoke and Mirrors

Recognizing Value Situations - Growth Kickers

Recognizing Value Situations - Growth Kickers

From time to time, relatively steady companies come up with small subsidiary businesses, sometimes related and sometimes not, that can perk up business growth.

Telecom companies got into the cell phone business and 3M is sticking with the Post-It boom. Twenty years ago, the growthless Southern Pacific Railroad started using its right-of-way for telecommunications lines in a business that eventually became Sprint.

These kickers can kindle grwoth, rekindle growth, and provide good, saleable assets downstream. They may be like finding chunks of chicken in a bowl of soup - not there in every spoonful and maybe not there at all. But when a big company crows about a small new product or business development in its portfolio within its ranks, keep your eyes open.


Also read:
Recognizing Value Situations
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth at a Reasonable Price
Recognizing Value Situations - The Fire Sale
Recognizing Value Situations - The Asset Play
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth Kickers
Recognizing Value Situations - Turning the Ship Around
Recognizing Value Situations - Cyclical Plays
Recognizing Value Situations - Smoke and Mirrors

Recognizing Value Situations - The Asset Play

Recognizing Value Situations - The Asset Play

Sometimes it isn't the growth but the value of current underlying assets that points to value.

Although in the mainstream case, assets are in place only as resources upon which to build business growth and thus aren't valued separately, there will be cases in which the assets themselves create the value. In other words:

• the company owns them, but they aren't involved - or aren't completely involved - in producing the company's revenue and profit stream.
• Or they could be used more effectively somewhere else,
• or they simply aren't valued correctly on the books.

The point is, their actual value exceeds reported value in the business as it is currently defined.

Actual value exceeds reported value usually in one of two forms:

• undervalued assets on the books or
• breakup values that exceed the assets' current value to the business.

Undervalued assets

Both physical and intangible assets can be undervalued, sometimes significantly. Frequently this occurs with nondepreciable assets that have been held for a long time, such as land. Land is often carried on the books at purchase value, which is almost always less than current market value, especially if held for a long time.

The classic example is railroads, which hold millions of acres originally granted for free when they were built. Some of this land is used in the business, but a great majority isn't, especially for western roads. Something like 1 percent of all land in California is owned by just a couple of rail firms. Similar situations occur in oil and other natural resource businesses.

Intellectual property can also be undervalued (although in many cases, especially with acquisitions, it is overvalued, watch out!). Patents and other unique, homegrown know-how can have significant value, although corporate history is littered with companies (Xerox, Bell Labs [Alcatel-Lucent], IBM) that failed to capitalize on the wealth potential.

The key to undervalued asset plays is whether the assets are really that valuable, and what the strategy is for unlocking that value. Railroads until recently have done little to try to realize the value of their land assets. (Now, we're starting to see rail yards converted to downtown plazas, but sometimes at great expense for environmental cleanups.)

Look for companies with million of acres or barrels on the books; examine current market prices; decide for yourself whether there's an opportunity. Then look for evidence that the company itself recognizes the opportunity. Union Pacific Corporation (a railroad parent company) for years not only looked to sell its rail-adjacent land but also to target potential customer companies who would build facilities along its lines and ship by rail. They had a whole real estate subsidiary set up around this idea. It was a good strategy, but so far, it's a drop in the bucket compared to potential.

When the sum of the parts exceeds the whole

Big, stagnant, set-in-their-ways companies sometimes offer hidden opportunities. If they were to break into parts, each part would be free to focus on its core opportunities. Improved focus and reduced corporate bureaucracy can work wonders toward rekindling growth, satisfying customers, and building successful new brands. The classic example is AT&T, whose breakup created billions in new business value (despite the fact that the breakup was far from voluntary).

We see it today in a lot of food companies (such as Kraft Foods) and even Procter & Gamble, which has spun off several important divisions to J.M. Smucker. And although the spinoff didn't go public, the Daimler-Chrysler breakup had a lot of value investors thinking about breakup value.

The key is to identify these companies; then try to visualize what they may look like as individual parts - as individual businesses. It isn't always a successful strategy, because new overhead must be created to run each business, and synergies are lost. A breakup of General Motors may not work because the dealer network and synergies of common parts platforms would be lost.

It makes more sense where multiple, unrelated, or poorly related businesses exist under one corporate umbrella. If the customers are different, technologies are different, or business models are different, separation sometimes leads to value. Hewlett-Packard and Agilent Technologies (one selling technology end products and the other selling ''things that make things work" to other technology companies) made a logical break, but it took a long time for both companies to hit their stride in their marketplaces.

Markets tend to undervalue huge conglomerates. It is hard to appreciate and understand the value of each component in detail, so the investing and analysis public tend to discount what they don't understand.

So put all this together, and you may look at a General Electric or Procter & Gamble and wonder whether there is more value than meets the stock pages. Listen to rumors, picture the transition, look for clues that management may be thinking along the same lines (a few small divestitures may be an experiment). This is an area where professional analysts can provide good information on which companies are "in play" and what their breakup vlaue may be.


Also read:
Recognizing Value Situations
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth at a Reasonable Price
Recognizing Value Situations - The Fire Sale
Recognizing Value Situations - The Asset Play
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth Kickers
Recognizing Value Situations - Turning the Ship Around
Recognizing Value Situations - Cyclical Plays
Recognizing Value Situations - Smoke and Mirrors

Recognizing Value Situations - The Fire Sale

Recognizing Value Situations - The Fire Sale

Occasionally companies experience deep price declines due to actual or anticipated news or announcements. These declines can get out of hand, as more and more bad spin circulates in the market and investors (and institutions) head for seemingly safer waters.

The decline is either a one-shot affair or a longer, momentum-driven decline.

The one-shot affair is usually more attractive to the value investor, as it is often more of a short-term overreaction to news than a fundamental shift in the business.

Getting creamed

The one-shot hit was recently exhibited by company XYZ. Even though XYZ has no debt, pays a dividend (rare for a small cap growth stock), and has over $5 in net cash, the stock lost 40 percent of its value, from $28 to $16 over three trading days with concerns about the economy and an ambiguous earnings outlook (the quarterly report actually beat expectations).

The shrewd value investor doesn't just go out and buy; he or she researches a situation to determine whether the business model really is broken. Running the numbers, visiting the stores, and researching the industry are all appropriate steps in this situation.

Anytime a stock loses a quarter, a third, or half of its value in one day, it may be worth a glance. Just keep in mind that the reasons for these slaughters are sometimes justified, and the road to recovery may be difficult. There may be more touble than meets the eye. At the same time, a value investor may find bargains among such distressed inventory.

Misreading the tea leaves

Longer declines are illustrated by nearly the entire telecom and fiber optics sector in the 1998 - 2003 era: Long, slow persistent declines driven by ever increasing negative sentiment. The reasons are fairly obvious considering the history of telecom deregualtion, the Internet boom, over-ordering, excess capacity, excess expectations, and subsequent bust. But still, most market players were focused on the short-term write-offs, layoffs, and lack of visibility; few looked at the long-term prospects for these businesses. These bust cycles happen all the time. Some are company-specific; others are inherent in their industry. Widespread negative sentiment can produce attractive buying opportunities.


Also read:
Recognizing Value Situations
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth at a Reasonable Price
Recognizing Value Situations - The Fire Sale
Recognizing Value Situations - The Asset Play
Recognizing Value Situations - Growth Kickers
Recognizing Value Situations - Turning the Ship Around
Recognizing Value Situations - Cyclical Plays
Recognizing Value Situations - Smoke and Mirrors

A phenomenon called "herding."

Why You Shouldn't Follow Warren Buffett
By Tim Hanson and Brian Richards April 30, 2009 Comments (7)

Have you ever bought a stock because Warren Buffett bought a stock? You know, like Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) or Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC)?

If so, you're not alone. In fact, thousands of investors follow Buffett's every move, and that's such a hassle for the Oracle of Omaha that he has actually (unsuccessfully) lobbied the SEC to give him a dispensation from disclosing his stock picks.

Heck, it got so bad that in 1999, Coca-Cola was trading for as much as 40 times earnings -- an unbelievably high number for a steady consumer staple that sells sugar water.

Yet, if you believe Alice Schroeder's account in her Buffett biography The Snowball, Buffett wouldn't sell Coca-Cola even then because "the price of Coca-Cola could plunge as a result."
After all, if folks had mindlessly followed Buffett in, thereby driving up the price, they would just as surely follow him out.

This has a name When investors follow other investors into and out of stocks, or use another investor's decision to buy or sell to justify their own decision to buy or sell, you have a phenomenon called "herding."

While Buffett has been wary of passing along his stock ideas since the 1950s and '60s, it wasn't until 1990 or so that financial research established herding as a prevalent and powerful day-to-day force in the market's gyrations.

And recent research from professors Amil Dasgupta, Andrea Prat, and Michela Verardo of the London School of Economics allows us to quantify how herding affects stock prices over both the short and long terms.

We'll spoil the ending for you: Herding isn't much benefit to anyone.

Survey says ... It turns out that institutional herding around a few supposedly great ideas ultimately leads to overvaluation and underperformance.

Money managers -- in trying to avoid being outdone by their colleagues -- flock to the same sets of stocks. In the words of the professors, "money managers tend to imitate past trades (i.e., herd) due to their reputational concerns, despite the fact that such herding behavior has a first-order impact on the prices of assets that they trade."

It's a broken system that punishes investors who aren't courageous enough to think on their own.

But wait!
Not everyone agrees that herding depresses the returns investors can look forward to. Just look at "Imitation Is the Sincerest Form of Flattery: Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway."

The authors studied Berkshire Hathaway from 1976 to 2006 and found that "a hypothetical portfolio that mimics [Berkshire's] investments at the beginning of the following month after they are publicly disclosed also earns significantly positive abnormal returns of 10.75% over the S&P 500 index." Wow.

So, we should all be poring over Berkshire's 13-F filings and buying what Buffett and team did, right? Not so fast.

Those findings are eye-opening and impressive, but in our view, they don't offer much for prospective investors for two reasons:

Berkshire circa 2009 is much different than the Berkshire of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. For one, Berkshire is huge now and can only trade in mega-liquid, mega-cap stocks. More important, because of this herding behavior and its effect on stocks he likes, Buffett now favors private deals or full acquisitions over common stock purchases.

The Internet has revolutionized stock investing, making more information more readily available -- at a faster pace. In other words, informational advantages are likely lessened in the digital era.

It's this latter point that got us to thinking about one of our favorite Web resources, GuruFocus.
What now? GuruFocus is a website that tracks "the buys, sells, and insights" of the world's "investment gurus." This is a list that includes long-term outperformers like Warren Buffett, Wally Weitz, and Seth Klarman.

It's a neat website that sends out neat monthly emails, but we waver on this question: Is it a truly valuable service, or is it merely an interesting service?

After all, you shouldn't be buying or selling stocks because other investors are, and doing so may give you a false sense of security about your decision. As Ben Graham once said, "You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right." And that's true even if it's a really smart crowd.

So, what are the current "Consensus Picks of Gurus" (i.e., the stocks the most gurus are buying)? The list includes MasterCard (NYSE: MA), Walgreens (NYSE: WAG), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: JAVA), and Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ) -- a nice list of businesses, to be sure.

But are these sure winners over the next year, or five, or 10? No.

Who knows why these gurus bought them, or when or why they'll sell them? Was it macro opportunities/concerns? Bottom-up fundamental insights? Something they saw during a meeting with management? Are they selling because of investor redemptions?

Heck, it may be that Ron Muhlenkamp bought MasterCard because he saw that Steve Mandel bought it, or that John Hussman got Best Buy because he figured George Soros knew something.
Again, who knows? The point is: Don't buy stocks because others are buying the same stocks. Don't simply follow Warren Buffett's publicly disclosed stock trades -- following the Oracle's moves, herd-like, is likely to lead you down an unprofitable road.

If you want to profit from Buffett's brain, you have two choices.
Buy shares of Berkshire Hathaway.
Study Buffett's shareholder letters, magazine articles, and body of work, and apply those lessons to your investing.

Both are good courses of action
While buying a share or two of Berkshire is a prudent course of action (Tim added to his position just a few months ago), it is worth noting that Berkshire today is very different from the more nimble version that bought shares in tiny companies such as Blue Chip Stamps, Associated Retail Stores, and Illinois National Bank.

Back then, Buffett was able to focus on good businesses at great prices regardless of size, industry, or geography -- and thus got some great deals on the very small-cap end of the spectrum.

That's what we do each and every day at Motley Fool Global Gains. As co-advisor of Global Gains (Tim) and a contributing author to the international investing chapter of our most recent book (Brian), we believe the good businesses at great prices are the small and foreign companies that American investors largely don't think are worth their time.



Already subscribed to Global Gains? Log in at the top of this page.
Tim Hanson owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. Brian Richards does not own shares of any companies mentioned. Best Buy and Berkshire are Motley Fool Stock Advisor and Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Coca-Cola is an Inside Value selection. The Motley Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway and Best Buy and would like you to meet its disclosure policy.

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2009/04/30/why-you-shouldnt-follow-warren-buffett.aspx

Investment Advice from Jack Bogle

In Depth
April 9, 2009, 5:00PM EST

Investment Advice from Jack Bogle

The father of indexing cautions against trusting money management firms, market timing, or underestimating the potential for stock gains

By Roben Farzad

Jack Bogle turns 80 this May. Last summer his body started to reject his 13-year-old transplanted heart, a turn of events that landed him in the hospital four times as the financial world was melting down. Bogle should be in bed. He has every reason to just sit back and reflect on his career as the father of indexing and as the conscience of the individual investor.

But with the stock market not far from a 12-year low—and banks the world over taking ever-larger bailouts—he'd rather spend these delicate days raising hell (much to his wife's consternation). He thinks mutual funds totally blew it by spending untold sums on supposedly deep-digging in-house research only to totally miss the leverage time bomb. This might be a tad more tolerable, he says, if they didn't pass those costs on to customers, who ended up losing even more.

Bogle is pressing Washington for explicit regulation concerning fiduciary responsibilities. Here is some of Bogle's advice for investors in these turbulent times.

The Stock Market
"If you can't afford to lose one more penny," says Bogle, "get out. But, if you're in your 20s to 40s, keep going. These are good values. The stock market has taken an awful lot of this mess into account, and it's hard for me to believe that common equities won't do better than Treasuries from this point on." Bogle thinks that a 7% nominal return—more than twice Treasury bonds—is realizable over the next decade.

Simple Math
Bogle's "relentless rules of humble arithmatic" show the importance of being vigilant about costs. A dollar invested over 50 years at 8% a year compounds to just under $47. But dock just 2% for expense ratios and transaction costs and you're down to $18. Back out another three percentage points for inflation and you're at $4.38—less than a tenth of your potential catch.

On Timing and Chasing the Sector du Jour
"The stock market's day-to-day is actually a distraction to the business of investing," according to Bogle. His point: The past century of data show that American businesses have grown at an annual rate of about 9.5%, with 4.5% from dividend yields and the remaining 5% from earnings growth. The simultaneous aggregate return on bonds averaged 5%. These are the realistic benchmarks to focus on. "It's all simplicity, mathematics, and common sense," he says. In other words, calibrate your expectations to these long-term figures, a discipline that requires you to ignore the pull of solar, B2B, nanotech, or whatever last year's hot sector was.

Sales Ethics and Practice
Caveat emptor for investors: Don't assume your retirement provider or money management firm espouses a standard of honesty, full and fair disclosure, or putting its clients' interests first. The industry is quietly bifurcated into salesmen and professionals. That is why Bogle is urging Washington to enact a federal standard of fiduciary duty to mandate prioritizing clients, avoiding conflicts, and disclosing all fees.

Overextended Treasuries
"Bond prices are already high. Stocks should do 3 or 4 percentage points better than bonds."

Act Your Age
The percentage of your portfolio in bonds should roughly match your age. For example, a 30-year-old investor would be 30% in fixed income—a 75-year-old, 75%.

Where's the End?
This downturn could last 1½ years to 2 years. But the stock market will recover months before a turnaround comes. Don't try to time your entry.

Plan More Wisely: Your Savings Are Likely Inadequate
At the end of 2008, the median 401(k) balance is estimated at just $15,000 per participant. Even if you project this balance for a middle-aged employee with growth over time via presumed higher salaries and investment returns, that figure might rise to some $300,000 at retirement age (if the assumptions are correct). But while that hypothetical accumulation may look substantial, it would be adequate to replace less than 30% of preretirement income—a help, but hardly a panacea. (The target suggested by most analysts is around 70%, including Social Security.)

Contribute More
One reason for today's modest 401(k) accumulations is inadequate participant and corporate contributions made to the plans. Typically the combined contribution comes to less than 10% of compensation, while most experts consider 15% the appropriate target. Over a working lifetime of, say, 40 years, an average employee contributing 15% of salary, receiving periodic raises, and earning a real market return of 5% per year, would accumulate $630,000. An employee contributing 10% would accumulate just $420,000. If those assumptions are realized, this would represent a handsome accumulation, but substantial obstacles—especially the flexibility given to participants to withdraw capital—are likely to preclude their achievement.

Get Out of Your Own Way
There is excessive flexibility in 401(k) plans. Designed to fund retirement income, they are too often used for purposes that subtract directly from that goal. One such subtraction arises from the ability of employees to borrow from their plans, and nearly 20% of participants do exactly that. Even when and if these loans are repaid, investment returns (assuming they are positive over time) would be reduced during the time that the loans are outstanding, a dead-weight loss in the substantial savings that might otherwise have accumulated by retirement. Even worse is the dead-weight loss—in this case, largely permanent—engendered when participants "cash out" their 401(k) plans when they change jobs. The evidence suggests that 60% of all participants in defined-contribution plans—i.e., a 401(k)—who move from one job to another cash out at least a portion of their plan assets, using that money for purposes other than retirement savings. To understand the baleful effect of borrowings and cash-outs, just imagine in what shape our beleaguered Social Security system would find itself if the contributions of workers and their companies were reduced by borrowings and cash-outs flowing into current consumption rather than into future retirement pay. Bogle wants a new, streamlined, and unified retirement savings system to be stripped of so many confusing options. He says it should be replaced with a handful of conservatively calibrated choices that are clear in their risk profiles and the expectations they can satisfy.

Mandatory Allocation?
One reason that 401(k) investors have accumulated such disappointing balances stems from unfortunate decisions in the allocation of assets between stocks and bonds. While virtually all investment experts recommend a large allocation to stocks for young investors and an increasing bond allocation as participants draw closer to retirement, a large segment of 401(k) participants fails to heed that advice.

The Wrong Mix
Nearly 20% of 401(k) investors in their 20s own zero equities in their retirement plan, instead holding outsized allocations of money-market and stable-value funds—options that are unlikely to keep pace with inflation as the years go by. On the other end of the spectrum, more than 30% of 401(k) investors in their 60s have more than 80% of their assets in equity funds. Such an aggressive allocation likely resulted in a decline of 30% or more in their 401(k) balances during the present bear market, imperiling their retirement funds precisely when members of this age group are preparing to draw on them.

The Under-20% Rule
Company stock is another source of unwise asset allocation decisions, as many investors fail to observe the time-honored principle of diversification. In plans that offer company stock as an investment option, the average participant invests more than 20% of his or her account balance in company stock, an unacceptable concentration of risk. If you feel you must, dabble in company stock with not more than a sliver of fun money. You're already overweighted in your exposure to the company's fate by way of employment and income.

The Old College Try
"Mutual funds can make no claim to superiority over the market averages," argued Bogle in his 1951 Princeton senior thesis, The Economic Role of the Investment Company. In other words, good luck beating the indexes. If anything, his prophecy was understated. Of the 355 equity funds in business in 1970, 223 have since gone bust. Of the 132 that survived, only 24 beat the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and only seven did so by more than (a statistically significant) 1% per year.

It Runs in the Family
"Gentlemen, lower your costs!" urged Philander Banister Armstrong, Bogle's great-grandfather, in an 1868 speech to fellow insurance executives. In 1917, Armstrong published the book A License to Steal: Life Insurance, the Swindle of Swindles: How Our Laws Rob Our Own People of Billions. "He's my spiritual progenitor," says Bogle.

BusinessWeek Senior Writer Farzad covers Wall Street and international finance.


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http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/09_16/b4127040249262.htm