Ferragamo Offers A Diversified And Long-Term Exposure To The Luxury Industry

Mar. 13, 2014 

Summary

• Ferragamo has a strong positioning on the Premium segment and a diversified profile.
• The Italian company is well positioned to benefit from all the major growth engines of the luxury industry in the upcoming years.
• Ferragamo announced increasing revenues and improving margins for 2013.

Overview and 2013 results

Salvatore Ferragamo Group (OTC:SFRGF)(OTCPK:SFRGY) is an Italian luxury goods company that was founded in 1928 by Salvatore Ferragamo in Florence focusing on ladies' footwear. The group operates now worldwide through more than 600 mono-brand stores and employs more than 3,000 collaborators. The company specializes in footwear, leather goods, ready-to-wear, accessories and perfumes. Ferragamo went public in June 2011 and is listed in the Milan stock exchange. The company has a premium positioning and a strong brand image, which makes it possible to target High net worth individuals, generate increasing revenues worldwide and resist to slower economies.

Ferragamo published strong 2013 results with improving revenues and margins:

€m	2013	2012	Variation (%)
Revenues	1,258	1,153	9.1
EBITDA	260	228	13.9
EBITDA margin (%)	20.7	19.8	n/a
EBIT	219	194	12.8
EBIT margin (%)	17.4	16.9	n/a
Net income	160	125	27.7

Source: Financial report

The debt profile also improved as net debt decreased by 43% from €57.8m to €32.6m ($45m), which accounts for a 0.1x net debt/ EBITDA ratio.

Summary of the luxury industry trends and upcoming growth engines

According to Bain, the luxury market was worth €217b in 2013 and is expected to grow by 5/6% over the next years. The number of consumers reached approximately 330m people in 2013 and should increase to 400m by 2020 and 500m by 2050.

• Customers

According to Bain, the top bracket of "true luxury" consumers (individuals with the highest incomes, buying the most expensive items), represented about 15m people who together spend €100b on luxury goods a year, almost half of the global luxury market.

HENRYs (High Earners, Not Rich Yet) are becoming a primary target for luxury goods companies. It refers to a segment of families earning between $250,000 and $500,000, but not having much left after taxes, schooling, housing and family costs.

The middle class in emerging markets should finally become one of the main growth drivers in the medium-term. Their consumption of accessories, perfumes and ready-to-wear products should increase in the next years.

• Main products

The report highlights that revenues will be driven by absolute luxury items (high level products, high quality materials, strong brand image etc.). Leather goods, accessories and shoes already became the biggest segment and should keep growing faster than other categories (4% growth in 2013 and 28% of total sales). Cosmetics and perfumes are slowing down in mature markets but are still strong in emerging countries (2% growth in 2013).

• Main markets

According to Bain, the main markets for luxury items are the Americas (4% growth), China (4% growth), South East Asia (11% growth) and the Middle East (5% growth). Europe is stable with a 2% growth and Japan should experience a 12% decline (mainly due to the depreciation of the currency). The study also underlines the fact that Africa is becoming a high-potential area with 11% growth.

In order to perform, I believe that luxury companies must be able to produce absolute luxury items in order target High Net Worth individuals. By doing so, they will strengthen their brand image and develop a competitive advantage. As a consequence, they will then be able to market and sell accessories, perfumes or ready-to-wear products to a broader category of customers worldwide.

Ferragamo is well positioned to benefit from the major growth engines of the luxury industry

The Italian company is well positioned to benefit from the major growth engines of the luxury industry thanks to a strong product and geographical diversification. Ferragamo offers all the products that should experience increasing sales in the upcoming years and is already well implemented in the growing areas.

First of all, Ferragamo is well diversified in terms of products. The Italian company's footwear and leather products can be considered as absolute luxury items and the Group can easily target High Net Worth individuals.

The Italian group is also present on other growing segments such as accessories, which should boost the revenues in the upcoming years. The ready-to-wear and accessories divisions developed by the company make it possible to target HENRYs and emerging markets middle classes, which is very positive.

The company can finally benefit from a growing perfume division (+13.7% yoy) that should provide long-term growth and resist to slower economies.

€m	2013	2012	Variation (%)	% 2013	% 2012
Footwear	544	506	7.5	43.2	43.9
leather goods	419	360	16.4	33.3	31.2
Ready to wear	103	108	-4.5	8.2	9.4
Accessories	91	90	1.2	7.2	7.8
Perfumes	80	70	13.7	6.3	6.1
Other	21	19	13.3	1.7	1.6

Source: Company

The Italian company also has a balanced geographical diversification with a good exposure to Asia (46.3%) and emerging markets in general (41.8%). The growing revenues from North America and the US are also very positive considering that the economy is improving. I finally like the fact that Ferragamo already operates in Latin America and progressively increases its exposure to Brazil and Mexico.

Be that as it may, the Italian company is present in all the markets where the luxury industry is growing.

€m	2013	2012	Variation (%)	% 2013	% 2012
Europe	326	289	12.8	25.9	25.1
North America	290	257	13.0	23.1	22.3
Japan	116	134	-13.5	9.2	11.6
Asia	467	420	11.0	37.1	36.5
Latin America	59	52	12.5	4.7	4.5

Source: Company

Ferragamo will generate a safe and long-term flow of increasing revenues

We have already seen that the Italian company should benefit from all the major growth engines of the luxury industry. I believe that Ferragamo is also one of the few luxury brands that can maintain a strong image, generate increasing revenues and last forever.

This is mainly due to the brand image, the focus on quality and the corporate governance.

- Ferragamo benefits from a brand heritage strongly linked with Italy and the Italian style. The company has been producing luxury items for more than 80 years and the brand is still associated to the founder: Salvatore Ferragamo.

- The Italian company offers superior quality products supported by the "Made in Italy" standard carried out by many carefully selected workshops. I believe that Ferragamo's products have the potential to become luxury icons and last forever. For instance, the company produces "extreme luxury shoes", made-to-order women's evening shoes that are real pieces of art.

- Ferragamo's corporate governance is strong, which is a key asset in order to generate long-term growth. The board of directors is made of people from different backgrounds that are able to manage the business adequately. Ferragamo is also still owned by the family through Ferragamo Finanziaria, which ensures a long-term commitment. I believe that the interests of the long-term investors and the family are aligned.

Source: Company

Ferragamo is finally one of the most powerful families in Florence and they maintain a good relationship with Matteo Renzi, former mayor of Florence and now Prime Minister, which is a key asset in Italy.

Investment thesis

Ferragamo is a strong investment for long-term investors who want to get a diversified exposure to the luxury industry.

The Italian company has a strong brand image and a Premium positioning, which guarantees a long-term growth and increasing revenues.

The Italian company is well positioned to benefit from all the major growth engines of the luxury industry in the upcoming years.

Valuation

In order to get an indicative value of the share, I ran a DCF model based on the following assumptions:

1. Long-term growth rate: 5%
2. WACC: 10% (luxury industry)
3. EBIT margin: 20%
4. Tax rate: 31.4% (KPMG)
5. Capex: 5% of revenues

(click to enlarge)

According to the model, the fair value of the share is about €30.7 ($42.4) compared with the current price of €22.7 ($31.3).

Risks

There are several risks to take into account:

• A slowdown of the Chinese economy would impact negatively the revenues as Ferragamo is mainly exposed to Asia.
• A switch of the demand from footwear & leather goods to more ready-to-wear products would be a real issue.
• Incapacity to increase the operating margins. Ferragamo still lags behind its peers in terms of operating margins.

2013	Ferragamo	Tod's	Prada (9M13)	Hermes (2012)
EBITDA margin (%)	20.7	24.4	31.9	35.5
EBIT margin (%)	17.4	20.0	26.3	32.1

Conclusion

Ferragamo is a strong investment to get exposure to the luxury industry. The Italian company has a great positioning on the Premium segment and a diversified profile. As a consequence, Ferragamo should be able to benefit from the major growth engines of the luxury industry and generate increasing revenues in the upcoming years.

However Ferragamo still needs to improve the operating margins in order to become more profitable and outperform its peers.

Finally, it might not be a good time to buy the stock as a downtrend appears to be going on. The stock price could be impacted negatively by the recent pullback of the main luxury goods companies including LVMH and Kering.

(click to enlarge)

Source: Yahoo finance

Source:

Editor's Note: This article covers a stock trading at less than $1 per share and/or has less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2087323-ferragamo-offers-a-diversified-and-long-term-exposure-to-the-luxury-industry?source=email_investing_ideas_lon_ide_13_17&ifp=0

Everything You Need to Know About Finance and Investing in Under an Hour (A good introduction)

@ 13.00  What is risk?
@ 15.30  How to grow the business?
@ 17.40  How to Value a Business?
@ 21.37  Investing (Compounding)  Start Early, Avoid Losses, Compound at high rates of return.
@ 24.00  Avoiding significant losses.  Rule 1:  Never lose money
@ 25.00  Rules for Successful Investing:
@ 33.30  When to Invest?
@ 34.40  The Psychology of Investing
@ 35.50  How to withstand market volatility
@ 36.50  Mutual funds
@ 42.30  Investing in Yourself (Author read the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham at age of 22)


Rules for Successful Investing:
Don't invest in start-ups
Aim for 10% - 15% per year
Invest in public companies
Understand how the company makes money
Invest at a reasonable price
Invest in a company that you could own forever
Find a company with very little debt
Find a company with profits that far outweigh its interest payments
Look for high barriers to entry
Invest in a company immune to extrinsic factors
Invest in a company with low reinvestment cost
Avoid businesses with controlling shareholders


The Best Investments:
Don't require a lot of reinvestment capital
Generate a healthy cash flow to pay out in dividends to shareholders.


Examples:  Coca Cola, McDonalds
Find a business that:
1.  You understand
2.  Has a record of success
3.  Makes an attractive profit
4.  Can grow over time.


Businesses that last:
1.  Sell a product people need
2.  Sell a unique product (franchise product)
3.  Elicit brand loyalty consumers are willing to pay for


How to withstand market volatility:
Be financially secure
Don't get spooked by short-term fluctuations
Do your own work
Invest at a reasonable price (relative to the earnings)


A good money manager:
1.  Can easily explain investment strategy (in 2 mins)
2.  Has a good reputation
3.  Has a value approach
4.  Has a successful track record of at least 5 years
5.  Has a consistent approach
6.  Invests own money in the fund.



WILLIAM ACKMAN, Activist Investor and Hedge-Fund Manager

We all want to be financially stable and enjoy a well-funded retirement, and we don't want to throw out our hard earned money on poor investments. But most of us don't know the first thing about finance and investing. Acclaimed value investor William Ackman teaches you what it takes to finance and grow a successful business and how to make sound investments that will grant you to a cash-comfy retirement.

The Floating University
Originally released September 2011.

Nationalities of people aboard Flight MH 370

Nationalities of people aboard Flight 370

Nationality	Pass.	Crew	Total
Australia	6		6
Canada	2		2
China	152		152
France	4		4
Hong Kong[112]	1		1
India	5		5
Indonesia	7		7
Iran[b]	2		2
Malaysia	38	12	50
Netherlands	1		1
New Zealand	2		2
Russia	1		1
Taiwan	1		1
Ukraine	2		2
United States	3		3
Total (15 nationalities)	227	12	239

I pray that the search and rescue mission will have a good outcome.

HwangDBS maintains 'buy' on UMWOG

HwangDBS Research has maintained a 'buy' call on UMW Oil & Gas Bhd (UMWOG), with an unchanged target price of RM5.15.

This is based on the almost completion of its jack-up rig called Naga 5, which is being built at Keppel's yard in Singapore, and the company is in talks for longer charters for the jack-up rig beyond its first assignment for Nido Petroleum Philippines Pty Ltd.

In its research note, HwangDBS said UMWOG will be able to receive the Naga 5 jack-up rig by May this year, ahead of its first assignment for Nido Petroleum, which will commence operations in June.

"This is a six week job worth US$7 million to drill the Baragatan prospect on behalf of the SC 63 joint venture. Concurrently, UMWOG is in negotiations with prospective parties to secure a long-term charter for Naga 5," it said.

Apart from Naga 5, HwangDBS said UMWOG is in line to take delivery of Naga 6 jack-up rig by September 14, Naga 7 (December 14),  and Naga 8 (September 5) this year.

"While there's some sceptism over issues such as the built quality and timely delivery of its Naga 6 and Naga 7 jack-up rigs, which are being built in China, such concern will be allayed once it (UMWOG) secures charters.

"Given the inherent demand for new, premium jack-up rigs, we are confident of these rigs being chartered," HwangDBS said.

HwangDBS also said its forecasts on UMWOG are unchanged and continue to view the company as a growth stock, with sound financial and operating acumen to capitalise on the prospects of jack-up rigs in Southeast Asia over a five-year horizon

"It is the only Malaysian entity that has the track record and in-house crew competencies in the drilling space. We opine that new jack-up orders beyond Naga 8 will likely be done from 2015 as UMWOG balances growth with balance sheet disciplines, unless a new unit is available with a contract in hand," it said.

13.3.2014

Read more: HwangDBS maintains 'buy' on UMWOG - Latest - New Straits Times http://www.nst.com.my/business/latest/hwangdbs-maintains-buy-on-umwog-1.510735?cache=%2F%2Fwp-login.php%3Fpage%3D0#ixzz2vqSXcQwZ

Securities Commission Malaysia - 82pc offences involve insider trading, mart manipulation

13 March 2014

82pc offences involve insider trading, mart manipulation

KUALA LUMPUR: The Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) said 82 per cent of its 56 active investigations involved suspected insider trading and market manipulation offences.

The rest of the investigation cases comprised of securities fraud, intermediaries misconduct, unlicensed activities and matters of corporate governance.

A total of 16 referrals were received from sources like market surveillance and investor affairs and complaints departments and other regulatory bodies.

SC said a majority of the whistle-blowing cases - 75 per cent - were attributed to suspicious trading activities like market manipulation and insider trading.

Breaches in corporate governance practices and illegal conduct of regulated activities also figured in the referrals that the SC received, it said in its 2013 annual report released yesterday.

The SC's various enforcement measures in 2013 had resulted in 34 criminal charges filed against six individuals and five against directors in public-listed companies, for offences relating to false financial reporting.

It also filed a civil suit in the High Court against a former licensed asset management company to claim RM13.3 million for losses caused to 63 investors. Regulatory settlements from this case amounted to over RM2.7 million, with steps taken to provide restitution to impacted investors.

The body also imposed four administrative sanctions on licensed intermediaries and as a bond trustee for their failure to comply with regulatory obligations.

A total of RM1.35 million in penalties were collected through such actions and 70 infringement notices were issued for other various breaches of securities laws and guidelines.

The SC used its investigation powers to obtain evidence from various sources like professional companies, financial institutions, public-listed and private companies, regulated entities, investors and various individuals. Oral evidence was gathered as formal recordings of statements from witnesses.

Last year, 246 witnesses' statements were recorded and these individuals comprised of professionals, advisers, company directors, senior management teams from listed companies as well as licensed persons.

As the trend in cross-border transactions is becoming common in many of the SC's investigations, the SC continues to cooperate with its foreign supervisory counterparts through the IOSCO's multilateral memoranda of understanding on consultation and co-operation and exchange of information.

In this regard, the SC made 24 requests to seek assistance from seven foreign jurisdiction to obtain evidence. The places include China, Hong Kong, British Virgin Islands, Singapore, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States.

On the other hand, the SC received 11 requests for assistance from foreign supervisory authorities of seven jurisdictions.

http://www.nst.com.my/business/nation/82pc-offences-involve-insider-trading-mart-manipulation-1.509938

Booming Malaysian capital market

12 March 2014| last updated at 01:58AM

Booming local capital market

By HAMISAH HAMID | bt@mediaprima.com.my 

STRONG FUNDAMENTALS: Equities grew 10.5pc to RM2.7tril last year, with key segments posting steady growth

THE Malaysian equity market continues to remain attractive to local and global investors after its strong 2013 performance, says the Securities Commission Malaysia (SC).

The market grew 10.5 per cent to RM2.7 trillion last year, with key market segments posting steady growth on the back of robust local fundamentals.

For this year, a slower earnings outlook, a huge price hike and defensive Malaysian equities could affect the local stock market’s performance, it said in its 2013 annual report released yesterday.

However, the defensive nature of the equity market may raise its relative attractiveness as global investors continue to differentiate the emerging stock markets.

“Growth in earnings per share is expected to drop in 2014 to 7.8 per cent, from 15.7 per cent during 2013. The average estimate for long-term (five-year) earnings per share growth has also moderated, from 11 per cent to 8.7 per cent,” the SC said.

It said investor optimism and central banks’ caution over the world economy’s prospects may result in the capital market exposed to shocks this year.

The SC said stretched valuations and enthusiasm for higher-yielding assets suggest that  investors are convinced that global recovery is imminent and that if it falters, monetary support would be forthcoming.

However, it said central banks have signalled their intention to withdraw such support to solidify their economies.

“Markets may, therefore, be prone to shocks if actual growth rates disappoint or if monetary normalisation takes place at a faster pace than expected,” it said.

The SC expects investors to remain exposed to interest rate volatility due to large funds’ flow into yield-driven assets, as well as growth of certain financing structures over the past few years.

At the same time, markets, financial institutions and certain types of investment structures remain tightly linked through short-term leveraged funding and other financing structures.

 “An interest rate shock, such as a larger-than-expected reduction in asset purchases by central banks, or a preemptive unwinding of an investment position in anticipation of such a shock could prove to be disruptive if markets were slow to adjust as a result of funding and liquidity squeezes, refinancing and rollover constraints or maturity mismatches,” it noted.

  It also said bond markets in emerging markets and Asia re-main vulnerable to interest rate volatility and an increase in cost of funds.

  Meanwhile, in a statement, the SC said the market remained resilient during the year under review, despite volatility affecting emerging markets globally.

   “The breadth and depth of the market underpinned the strongest period of capital-raising on record with a total of RM240 billion raised over the last two years,” it said.

  The Islamic capital market grew by 8.8 per cent to RM1.5 trillion, with syariah-compliant assets representing 56 per cent of the overall capital market. 

“Malaysia maintained its leadership role as the world’s largest sukuk market, accounting for 69 per cent of global sukuk issuances in 2013,” it said.

  The bond market ended 2013 at RM1 trillion and retained its position as the third-largest in Asia, relative to gross domestic product.

  Equity market capitalisation grew to RM1.7 trillion with the benchmark  FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI rising 10.5 per cent, making the market one of Asia’s top performers.

   Significant gains of 36.7 per cent were also recorded by the domestic small-capitalised index, following institutional funds’ higher participation and retail investors’ greater interest.

   SC said the capital market continued to be a major source of financing with RM94 billion raised through corporate bonds and initial public offerings.

Bond issuances accounted for 91 per cent of the financing raised.

  During the year under review, the fund management industry continued its major role in mobilising domestic savings, with assets under management (AUM) gro-wing by 16.5 per cent to RM588 billion.

  Unit trust funds continued to be the largest contributor to AUM’s growth, with net asset value rising  to RM336 billion, which is about one-fifth of stock market capitalisation.
  

  

Read more: Booming local capital market - Today's Paper - New Straits Times http://www.nst.com.my/business/todayspaper/booming-local-capital-market-1.509933#ixzz2vqGBAgHa

New Zealand's increased its key interest rate; more on the way

"It is necessary to raise interest rates toward a level at which they are no longer adding to demand" : Graeme Wheeler, governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. 

New Zealand's central bank increased its key interest rate, becoming the first from a major developed nation to exit record-low borrowing costs, and signaled it may remove stimulus faster than previously forecast to contain inflation.

"It is necessary to raise interest rates toward a level at which they are no longer adding to demand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement in Wellington after increasing the official cash rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.75 per cent, as forecast by all 15 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The RBNZ expects to raise the rate by about 2 percentage points over two years, with the pace depending on economic data, Wheeler said.

Soaring dairy prices and the NZ$40 billion ($37.7 billion) rebuild of earthquake-damaged Christchurch are fueling economic growth just as surging housing prices in the nation's biggest city of Auckland stoke concerns of a bubble. The RBNZ today raised its forecasts for inflation, predicting it will reach the 2 per cent midpoint of its target range 18 months sooner than estimated in December. It also lifted its forecast for the 90- day bank bill rate, suggesting borrowing costs may rise more quickly than previously expected.

"With inflation now rising and inflationary pressures building, there is a need to return interest rates to more- normal levels," the central bank said in its Monetary Policy Statement today. "The speed and extent to which the cash rate will be raised will depend on economic data and our continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures."

Advertisement

New Zealand's dollar rose after the RBNZ decision. It rose over 85 US cents after trading at 84.65 cents immediately before the statement.

Reuters

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/new-zealand-raises-official-interest-rates-more-on-way-20140313-34n73.html#ixzz2vml2dt3q

Seth Klarman CFA Presentation

http://www.scribd.com/doc/37358611/Seth-Klarman-CFA-Presentation

Is buy and hold dead? Jason Zweig shares his unique perspective, concluding that one should look at it differently.

The Wall Street Journal's Jason Zweig shares his unique perspective on buy and hold investing, concluding that one should look at it differently. 


Is buy and hold dead?
I don't think it is right. 
That is exactly what people say right before buy and hold comes back to life.  
Nobody says that when the Dow was over 14,000 when buy and holding was a dangerous idea.
They only started saying this when the Dow was nearer 8,000. 
But it is cheap now and it is inconceivable that buy and hold is a bad idea at Dow 8,000 than at Dow 14,000.


What about the idea of the market being in a long term bear market that could go on for years, like from 1966 to 1982?
Anytime you buy, it is going to take you years to get back to where you were and people should invest more actively.
We may enter at a protracted period when the returns from the market are below average, that doesn't mean that more active trading in and out of stocks are going to increase your returns. 
Though the trading costs are lower now than before, the costs are still real. 
If you can buy and hold through a protracted period of low returns, the flip side to this is, you are buying at lower market valuation than before. 
People who bought and held from 1966 to 1982, or from 1929 to 1940s and 1950s, did quite well.
It was the people who only held who suffered. 
If you are going to retire, you had a big problem. 
But if you are younger, buying and holding is a spectacular idea.


But when people said to buy and hold, they do not mean, buy once and then do not put another dime in, and wait for it to go up. 
They mean buying steadily, not trying to decide  where you think the bottom has bottomed, but keep buying at lower prices regularly.
Maybe we should not talk about investing. Instead use the term savings. 
If you think of putting money into the financial market in the form of savings, you don't expect to get your returns right away.  
You expect to get it over time and certainly that tricks people up. 
Certainly, the returns had been terrible recently and if it is going to pay off, you must give it time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z48xR-TBL-8

Benjamin Graham - advantages of a long bear market

"The true investor would be pleased, rather than discouraged, at the prospect of investing his new savings on very satisfactory terms." 

Investors would be "enviably fortunate" to benefit from the "advantages" of a long bear market.

How do I take qualitative factors into consideration when using fundamental analysis?

Qualitative Factors in Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the method of analyzing companies based on factors that affect their intrinsic value. There are two sides to this method: the quantitative and the qualitative. 

-   The quantitative side involves looking at factors that can be measured numerically, such as the company's assets, liabilities, cash flow, revenue and price-to-earnings ratio. 
-   The limitation of quantitative analysis, however, is that it does not capture the company's aspects or risks unmeasurable by a number - things like the value of an executive or the risks a company faces with legal issues. 
-   The analysis of these things is the other side of fundamental analysis: the qualitative side or non-number side.

Although relatively more difficult to analyze, the qualitative factors are an important part of a company. 

-  Since they are not measured by a number, they more represent an either negative or positive force affecting the company. 
-  But some of these qualitative factors will have more of an effect, and determining the extent of these effects is what is so challenging. 
-  To start, identify a set of qualitative factors and then decide which of these factors add value to the company, and which of these factors decrease value. 
-  Then determine their relative importance. 
-  The qualities you analyze can be categorized as having a positive effect, negative effect or minimal effect. 


The best way to incorporate qualitative analysis into your evaluation of a company is to do it once you have done the quantitative analysis. 

-  The conclusion you come to on the qualitative side can put your quantitative analysis into better perspective. 
-  If when looking at the company numbers you saw good reason to buy the company, but then found many negative qualities, you may want to think twice about buying. 
-   Negative qualities might include potential litigations, poor R and D prospects or a board full of insiders. 
-   The conclusions of your qualitative analysis either reconfirms or raise questions about the conclusions of your quantitative analysis. 

Fundamental analysis is not as simple as looking at numbers and computing ratios; it is also important to look at influences and qualities that do not have a number value.

Bull Markets in Calendar Days

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/06/investing/bull-market-five-years/index.html?iid=Lead

Is buy and hold, as an investing strategy, dead?

Study the chart below.  Is buy and hold, as an investing strategy, dead? 
Everytime the stock market crashed, many investors shouted buy and hold is dead.
Yet, the truth is, it is exactly at this time when the market crashes, that buy and hold is alive and most profitable.




NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The stock market bulls have had the upper hand on the bears for nearly five years, and they may be just getting started.

Sunday marks the fifth anniversary of the day the stock market hit its lowest point during the financial crisis and Great Recession.

The fact that the rally is about to turn five has some investors wondering if stocks can keep going much higher.

But previous bull markets, which are broadly defined as a period where the S&P 500 gains 20% or more without a decline of 20% in between, have gone on longer than the current one.

As of this week, this bull market ranks as the sixth longest since 1928 -- just behind the bull market from 1982 to 1987, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

If the S&P 500 hits a new high any time after March 22, this bull market would become the fifth longest. Assuming it continues to rally through Memorial Day, the current run would be longer than the bull market from 2002 to 2007, when the housing bubble inflated.

But this bull market has a long way to go before it becomes the longest -- that honor goes to the epic rally that began shortly after Black Monday in late 1987 and lasted until the tech crash of 2000.

This bull market also isn't the best in terms of stock market performance either.

As of Tuesday, the S&P 500 had gained 177% since March 2009, making it the fourth strongest bull market, according to Bespoke. The S&P 500 would have to rise another 20% before it will top the bull market gain from 1982 to 1987, when stocks surged nearly 230%. That's unlikely to happen, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

So can the rally continue for a sixth year?

Of the 11 bull markets that have occurred since World War II, only three have made through a sixth year, according to Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital.

But Stovall thinks there's a "good chance" the current bull market will defy history and make it to its sixth birthday. That's partly because stock valuations are still reasonable, he says. The S&P 500 is trading at 16 times 2014 earnings estimates. That's not cheap. But it's not overly expensive either.

Assuming the economy continues to grow and corporate earnings increase as expected this year, Stovall believes the bull market can last another year. He's not alone.

A survey of 30 market strategists by CNNMoney in January found that most are expecting the S&P 500 to end at 1,960, up about 6% for the year. While that would be a healthy gain, it's a far cry from 2013's 30% increase.

Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, sees no signs the rally will end soon either. "In fact," he said, "the bull market may be getting a second wind."

Kleintop argues that stocks will continue to hit new highs as investors who have been sitting on the sidelines jump back into the market. He thinks more investors will come to realize that returns for stocks are likely to exceed safer assets such as bonds.

Looking further ahead, Kleintop says current market valuations suggest stocks can produce "mid- to high-single-digit gains" over the next ten years. That's not including dividends, which could add another 2%.

Of course, even the bulls concede that stocks could suffer some setbacks.

Kleintop says stocks will be volatile over the next ten years and there could even be another recession and big market pullback along the way. But for now, many experts think the bear is going to remain in hibernation mode for the remainder of this year.  


http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/06/investing/bull-market-five-years/index.html?iid=Lead

Economic Moats: A Successful Company's Best Defense

Cash flow generation, debt-free balance sheets and a significant and sustainable competitive advantage in the marketplace are some of the reasons great companies stand out from the pack.

What is it that separates companies that thrive for decades from the ones that flounder for years?

The answer may lie in what is referred to as a company's economic moat, a phrase popularized by investing legend Warren Buffett. In this article, we'll introduce you to the concept and explain why it is so important to consider as a long-term investor.

What is an Economic Moat?
Economic moat refers to the character and longevity of a corporation's competitive advantage over similar companies competing in the same industry. If Company A is producing excess profits, competitors B, C and D will soon take note and attempt to enter the industry and do the same. As capital flows into the industry, the new competition will erode their profits, unless Company A has an advantage over its competitors.

An economic moat is a barrier that protects a firm and its profits from competing firms. Just like a medieval castle, the moat serves to protect those inside the fortress and their riches from outsiders. Without a wide economic moat, there is little to prevent competitors from stealing market share and thus profits.

Not All Moats are Created Equally
However, not all competitive advantages are created equal. Some companies' economic moats are sustained for decades while others disappear quickly. The trick is determining the difference. In addition, it is important to know when a company actually has an economic moat and when it does not. For example, some investors mistake a technological advancement with an economic moat.

Take, for example, Palm Inc.'s (Nasdaq:PALM) Palm Pilot product line. For a while, PALM enjoyed a considerable advantage, until competitors realized how lucrative this type of product was and entered with a vengeance. Once names like Sony (NYSE:SNE), Hewlett Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Research in Motion (Nasdaq:RIMM), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), and even Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) stepped in, PALM's success was all but over and its share price dropped sharply.

This is an example of a company without an economic moat. If competitors are easily able to compete with little or no barriers to entry, a moat does not exist.


In contrast, other companies enjoy wide economic moats for long periods of time, reaping huge profits for many years. An example of a sustainable competitive advantage is Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT). Wal-Mart's rise to massive market capitalization from its modest beginnings was largely a result of its aggressive cost controls and subsequent low price advantage over competing retail outlets.

Once Wal-Mart grew to a mega cap company, it enjoyed further cost advantages afforded by its size, buying power and enviable distribution network. Retailers that have attempted to go head to head with Wal-Mart on a price basis have not fared well. Wal-Mart's buying power and infrastructure have created a wide and sustainable economic moat. Competition cannot easily recreate the brand recognition, economies of scale and technical marvel that is Wal-Mart's distribution network.

A company's economic moat represents a qualitative measurement of its ability to keep competitors at bay for an extended period of time. This translates into prolonged profits in the future. Economic moats are difficult to express quantitatively because they have no obvious dollar value, but are a vital qualitative factor in a company's long-term success or failure and a vital factor in the selection of stocks.


How Moats Are Created
There are several ways in which a company creates an economic moat that allows it to have a significant advantage over its competitors. Below we will explore some different ways in which moats are created.

Cost Advantage
As exemplified by Wal-Mart's prolonged success, a cost advantage, which competitors cannot replicate, can be a very effective economic moat. Companies with significant cost advantages can undercut the prices of any competitors that attempts to move into their industry, either forcing the competitor to leave the industry or at least slowing or stopping its growth. Companies with sustainable cost advantages can maintain a very large market share of their industry by squeezing out any new competitors who try to move in.

Size Advantage
Being big can sometimes, in itself, create an economic moat for a company. At a certain size, a firm achieves economies of scale. This is when more units of a good or service can be produced on a larger scale with lower input costs. This reduces overhead costs in areas such as financing, advertising, production, etc. (To learn more, read What Are Economies Of Scale?)

Large companies that compete in a given industry tend to dominate the core market share of that industry, while smaller players are forced to either leave the industry or occupy smaller "niche" roles. Two examples of industry giants are Microsoftand Wal-Mart.

High Switching Costs
Being the big fish in the pond has its advantages. When a company is able to establish itself in an industry, suppliers and customers can be subject to high switching costs should they choose to do business with a new competitor. Competitors have a very difficult time taking market share away from the industry leader because of these cumbersome switching costs.

An example of a switching cost would be changing your cable or satellite provider. Whether its Comcast (Nasdaq:CMSCA), DirecTV (Nasdaq:DTV) or EchoStar Communications (Nasdaq:DISH) providing your service, once you have that company's system in place, the switching costs can be a big deterrent to changing providers.

Intangibles
Another type of economic moat can be created through a firm's intangible assets, which includes items such as patents, brand recognition, government licenses and others. Strong brand name recognition, enjoyed by companies like Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), McDonald's(NYSE:MCD) and Nike (NYSE:NKE), allows these types of companies to charge a premium for their products over other competitor's goods, which boosts their profits. (For more on this, see Advertising, Crocodiles And Moats and The Hidden Value Of Intangibles.)


For another example, consider drug companies like Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Merck (NYSE:MRK), GlaxoSmithKline(NYSE:GSK) or Novartis (NYSE:NVS) and the intellectual patents on specific drugs they hold. Their rights to specific pharmaceutical products can effectively bar all competition from successful drugs for the duration of the patent, giving the company guaranteed long-term profits and market share. Once the patents run out, they are susceptible to competition from generic drug manufacturers.

Soft Moats
Some of the reasons a company might have an economic moat are more difficult to identify. For example, soft moats may be created by exceptional management or a unique corporate culture. In contrast to a wide moat, the strength and impact of the competitive advantage aren't as considerable and are more susceptible to competitive pressures.

While difficult to describe, a unique leadership and corporate environment may partially contribute to a corporation's prolonged economic success, even while operating in a less than robust industry. (For more insight, read Governance Pays.)

An example of unique corporate culture transferring to the bottom line might be the story of Google (Nasdaq:GOOG); many people attribute the company's unconventionally open and innovative corporate culture as a contributor to its success.


Difficult to Define But Vital
Economic moats are generally difficult to pinpoint at the time they are being created. Their effects are much more easily observed in hindsight, once a company has risen to great heights. Indeed, many of the retail outlets that were decimated by Wal-Mart's historic growth in size did not see the threat coming until it was much too late.

From an investor's view, it is ideal to invest in growing companies just as they begin to reap the benefits of a wide and sustainable economic moat. In this case, the most important factor is the longevity of the moat. The longer a company can harvest profits, the greater the benefits for itself and its shareholders!




By Chris Gallant on October 04, 2009
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental-analysis/08/moats.asp

What is the difference between investing and trading?

Investing and trading are two very different methods of attempting to profit in the financial markets. The goal of investing is to gradually build wealth over an extended period of time through the buying and holding of a portfolio of stocks, baskets of stocks, mutual funds, bonds and other investment instruments. Investors often enhance their profits through compounding, or reinvesting any profits and dividends into additional shares of stock. Investments are often held for a period of years, or even decades, taking advantage of perks like interest, dividends and stock splits along the way. While markets inevitably fluctuate, investors will "ride out" the downtrends with the expectation that prices will rebound and any losses will eventually be recovered. Investors are typically more concerned with market fundamentals, such as price/earnings ratios and management forecasts.

Trading, on the other hand, involves the more frequent buying and selling of stock, commodities, currency pairs or other instruments, with the goal of generating returns that outperform buy-and-hold investing. While investors may be content with a 10 to 15% annual return, traders might seek a 10% return each month. Trading profits are generated through buying at a lower price and selling at a higher price within a relatively short period of time. The reverse is also true: trading profits are made by selling at a higher price and buying to cover at a lower price (known as "selling short") to profit in falling markets. Where buy-and-hold investors wait out less profitable positions, traders must make profits (or take losses) within a specified period of time, and often use a protective stop loss order to automatically close out losing positions at a predetermined price level. Traders often employ technical analysis tools, such as moving averages and stochastic oscillators, to find high-probability trading setups.

A trader's "style" refers to the timeframe or holding period in which stocks, commodities or other trading instruments are bought and sold. Traders generally fall into one of four categories:

Position Trader – positions are held from months to years
Swing Trader – positions are held from days to weeks
Day Trader – positions are held throughout the day only with no overnight positions
Scalp Trader – positions are held for seconds to minutes with no overnight positions

Traders often choose their trading style based on factors including: account size, amount of time that can be dedicated to trading, level of trading experience, personality and risk tolerance. Both investors and traders seek profits through market participation. In general, investors seek larger returns over an extended period through buying and holding. Traders, by contrast, take advantage of both rising and falling markets to enter and exit positions over a shorter timeframe, taking smaller, more frequent profits.


http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/difference-investing-trading.asp

Warren Buffett Intrinsic Value Calculation - A stock must be undervalued

"Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life." - Warren Buffett

"As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates mover or forecasts of future cash flows are revised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, will almost inevitably come up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures." - Warren Buffett


"The cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life." - Warren Buffett

"In other words, the percentage change in book value in any given year is likely to be reasonably close to that year's change in intrinsic value." - Warren Buffett



@ 20.15 Finding intrinsic value of Disney (using MSN Money)

BuffettsBooks.com. calculator
http://www.buffettsbooks.com/intelligent-investor/stocks/intrinsic-value-calculator.html

Warren Buffett Stock Basics

Warren Buffett Stock Basics
Warren Buffett only has 4 rules
1. A stock must be stable and understandable
2. A stock must have long term prospects
3. A stock must be managed by vigilant leaders.
4. A stock must be undervalued.

ALL 4 rules must be met before buying the company.


A quick valuation tool by Graham.
@ 13.00

Look for
P/E < 15 and P/BV < 1.5
or

P/E * P/BV < 22.5

Then this is a company you need to look at.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uQjGz6jp2E&list=PL8u0bnZsL5kmAFryBYc9YzLNIENnvLAJF

Use the News - Maria Bartiromo

Use the News
Maria Bartiromo - The first person to report live from the NYSE.

@ 52.40  Jim Cramer
@ 53.40  Day Trading, its not investing.
@ 1.13.00  Sources of business news.

How to make money from the stock market:  Wall Street Insiders' Investment Secrets (2001)

How To Analyze A Stock -- How to determine if a stock is a good growth or value stock.