Monday, 15 June 2009

The recent commodity story has been all about China

A new period has emerged over the last few years. Growing economies, particularly China, have experienced strong growth and inflation simultaneously. They have tolerated inflation, and let growth rage on. Commodities have had a renaissance. There has been debate about whether China will try to cool inflation, but in the meantime, commodity prices have soared as the hungry dragon searches the world for raw materials.

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For instance, you could have bought Australian dollars in 2003 as a kind of commodity play.
  • The widespread view then was that Chinese demand for commodities would drive prices higher, and that Australia was well placed to benefit as a supplier.
  • There were other things in favour of the Aussie dollar, such as strong growth and relatively high interest rates, which gave added confidence.
You would have done well during this perid, given the usual lacklustre environment for trading in commodities.


Related posts:
Buying commodities. When?
Trade in a basket of commodities
CRB Index
Long periods of high growth and high inflation are rare
The recent commodity story has been all about China
Warning: Watch out for US dollar exposure in commodities trading

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