myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Monday 2 February 2009

Australian House Prices Fall, More Rate Cuts Coming

Australian House Prices Fall, More Rate Cuts Coming

Topics:Banking Interest Rates Inflation Economy (Global) Australia & New Zealand
Sectors:Banks
By: Reuters 01 Feb 2009 11:58 PM ET

Australian house prices fell last year as tightening credit conditions and a sharp downturn in the economy put paid to the double-digit growth enjoyed in 2007, dealing a further blow to household wealth and pointing towards more rate cuts.
Government data out on Monday showed prices of established houses fell 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2007, when they were running hot at 14.0 percent.
The drop in wealth, already undermined by sliding equity and pension values, only added to expectations of another big cut in interest rates when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday.
Investors are pricing in a cut of 100 basis points in the key cash rate to a record low of 3.25 percent, bringing its easing since September to a massive 4 percentage points.
"The news has been so dismal that they almost have to cut by 100 basis points, and an even bigger move can't be ruled out," said Michael Workman, a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank. "That won't be the end either," he added. "The market's already pricing in rates under 2 percent."
The Australian government is also expected to announce a second package of fiscal stimulus measures, perhaps as soon as this week, in an attempt to limit any rise in unemployment.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on Monday told a news conference the government would "move heaven and earth" to support the economy even as the global recession blew a hole in its tax take.
Warning of a return to budget deficits after years of plenty, Rudd said tax revenues over the next four years were expected to be lower by a staggering A$115 billion ($73 billion). That is equivalent to over a third of annual tax revenues, or 10 percent of gross domestic product.

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"But this government will leave no stone unturned when it comes to taking all necessary measures to continue to support growth and jobs," he said.
The depth of the trouble was illustrated by a monthly survey of 200 manufacturers, which showed activity contracted for the eighth straight month in January.
The Australian Industry Group/PriceWaterhouseCoopers Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) edged up a seasonally adjusted 2.9 points to 36.6, but remained far below the 50 threshold separating growth from contraction.

Relatively Resilient
The steep cuts in interest rates seemed to be offering some support to house prices as the pace of decline slowed on a quarter-to-quarter basis.
Prices dipped a smaller-than-expected 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to the third quarter when they sank 2.4 percent.
In any case, the annual losses of 3.3 percent in Australia are relatively modest compared to declines of 15 to 20 percent suffered in the United States and Britain.
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This was partly thanks to still high levels of skilled migration and a rising population. There are also far fewer unsold homes in Australia, which had never gone though the huge building boom that left so much stock in the United States.
Monetary policy was having more of an impact as the main variable mortgage in Australia is benchmarked off the central bank's cash rate, unlike in the U.S. where the most popular fixed rate mortgages are tied to Treasury yields.
Rory Robertson, interest rate strategist at Macquarie, noted that the headline variable mortgage rate had fallen to around 6.85 percent, from 9.6 percent before the central bank began easing.
"Big RBA-driven mortgage rate reductions obviously have provided major support for local home prices through recent global gloom and doom," he said.
Should the central bank cut as expected on Tuesday, the mortgage rate could drop to 6.0 percent or less, near its lowest since 1970.
"House prices will come under further pressure as unemployment trends higher," Robertson added. "But mortgage rates will continue to be reduced to new generational lows, providing great support to most homebuyers."
Copyright 2009 Reuters.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28971613

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Monday 2 February 2009

Australian House Prices Fall, More Rate Cuts Coming

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs