myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Sunday, 11 October 2009

Tanjong: Good bet for more gains

Tanjong: Good bet for more gains

Tags: InsiderAsia | Tanjong plc

Written by InsiderAsia
Thursday, 08 October 2009 16:10

THERE are growing concerns that the rally in global stocks has been too fast and has run ahead of underlying fundamentals. For instance, the current average price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation of roughly 17-18 times 2009 earnings for the local bourse does appear stretched.

While stock markets have remained very resilient so far, we may be in for a period of consolidation — pending more concrete evidence of a sustainable global economic recovery. That is not to say no gains can be made. But with the low-hanging fruits picked, investors would have to be more selective.

Very attractive valuations
Tanjong plc (RM15.50), we believe, is one good bet for further upside gains from hereon.
Its shares are trading at only 9.5 times our estimated earnings of 163.2 sen per share for the financial year ending January 2010 — making it one of the most attractively valued big-cap, blue-chip stocks currently listed on Bursa Malaysia.

At the same time, the stock also pays attractive dividends. We estimate dividends per share to total RM1 for the current financial year. That will earn shareholders a gross yield of 6.5% — well above prevailing bank deposit rates and the broader market's average yield.
We foresee limited earnings downside risks for the company given that Tanjong's key businesses are relatively defensive in nature.

Sustainable power earnings, upside from new acquisitions
Power is the largest earnings generator. The business accounted for about 79% of Tanjong's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in 1HFY10.
Contributions from the local power assets recovered from the various one-off expenses, including major maintenance, unscheduled outages and development costs writeoffs incurred in the previous corresponding period.

Meanwhile, earnings from Tanjong's power-generating subsidiaries in Egypt and Bangladesh expanded at a steady and sustainable pace, accounting for more than half of total EBIT for the power arm. Pre-tax profit for its power-related associates was also higher at RM37 million in 1HFY10, up from RM28.4 million in 1HFY09.
We do not expect any material variation in 2HFY10. Looking further ahead, its power earnings are sustainable — with the additional upside potential from new acquisitions.

Solid NFO franchise
Luck continued to favour Tanjong's numbers totalisator business (NFO) in 2QFY10. Prize payout in the latest quarter averaged at just about 61.1%, slightly lower than the 62.5% in 1QFY10. By comparison, prize payout averaged around 65% in 1HFY09.

The lower prize payout translated into another good quarterly earnings for the company. EBIT totalled RM156.8 million in 1HFY10 compared to RM123 million in 1HFY09 — despite weaker turnover per draw, which fell by about 3.3% during the period, likely due to a combination of factors including weaker consumer spending, greater number of draws and the rise in illegal betting.

Outlook for the NFO franchise remains positive. But earnings in 2HFY10 may be lower than that in the first half of the financial year, where prize payout has averaged below the more typical 64%-65% ratio.
Good earnings from the NFO arm offset losses for its other gaming unit, the racing totalisator (RTO) business. The company is working to reduce expenses and pare losses but the unit will stay in the red in the foreseeable future.

Earnings from the power and gaming businesses are fairly steady and predictable, as are those from the property and TGV cinemas businesses. As such, the biggest concern for investors is probably Tropical Island.

Tropical Island's losses not material
The resort is likely to stay in the red until plans to develop onsite accommodation come to fruition. Those plans were delayed by the global downturn and tight credit market conditions. The first phase, to build up to 425 villas and related facilities, is now slated for completion by end-2011.
Nonetheless, losses have been pared down substantially with improved cost controls and management, as well as the successful implementation of additional facilities within the resort over the past two years.

Losses before interest and tax (LBIT) narrowed to just RM4.3 million in 1HFY10 compared to RM15.5 million in the previous corresponding period. We estimate losses in the region of RM16 million for the full year. To place that into perspective, Tropical Island's losses are marginal compared to Tanjong's estimated EBIT of RM1.26 billion in FY10.

Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Sunday, 11 October 2009

Tanjong: Good bet for more gains

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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