It would be nice to be able to get a warning signal, so you could sell your stocks and your mutual funds just before a bear marekt and then scoop them up later on the cheap. The trouble is nobody has figured out a way to predict bear markets. The record on that is no better than the record on predicting recessions.
Once in a while, somebody calls a bear and becomes a celebrity overnight - a stock analyst named Elaine Garzarelli was celebrated for predicting the Crash fo 1987. (Roubini for the recent bear market of 2008). But you never hear of somebody prediting two bear markets in a row.
What you do hear is a chorus of "experts" claiming to see bears that never show up.
Since we are all accustomed to taking action to protect ourselves from snowstorms and hurricanes, it's natural that we would try to take action to protect ourselves from bear markets, even though this is one case in which being prepared like a Boy Scout does more harm than good. Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in all the corrections combined.
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/01/another-telling-statistics.html
Another telling statistics on Market Timing: Missing the chance to run with the bulls
Great Timing versus Lousy Timing
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