myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Wednesday 23 March 2016

Malaysian capital market continues to expand in 2015 despite headwinds — SC

March 11, 2016, Friday

Ranjit said RM86 billion was raised through the issuance of private debt securities (PDS) and RM4 billion via initial public offerings.

KUALA LUMPUR: Notwithstanding various headwinds, the Malaysian capital market continued to expand in 2015 to reach RM2.82 trillion in size compared with RM2.76 trillion in 2014, the Securities Commission said.

Growth was driven by the equity market which grew from RM1,651 billion in 2014 to RM1,695 billion by end-2015 while the bond market improved to RM1,125 billion against RM1,110 billion registered in the previous year, said Chairman Datuk Seri Ranjit Ajit Singh in the SC Annual Report 2015.

“Such expansion attests to the sustained ability of issuers to obtain long-term financing from the Malaysian capital market, as fundraising activity remained robust throughout the year,” he said.

Ranjit said RM86 billion was raised through the issuance of private debt securities (PDS) and RM4 billion via initial public offerings (IPOs), bringing the total funds raised through the primary market to RM90 billion in 2015 compared with RM92 billion in 2014.

Meanwhile, a sustained expansion in buy-side liquidity over the year also contributed towards the relative resilience of the capital market, with assets under management (AUM) by fund management companies rising by six per cent to RM668 billion in 2015 from RM630 billion in 2014.

Unit trust funds continued to be the largest source of clients’ AUM with net asset value of RM347 billion by end-2015 compared with RM343 billion in 2014.

The unit trust industry, which is an important proxy for retail investor confidence in the capital market, also recorded surplus sales over redemptions, with the number of units in circulation growing from 425 billion in 2014 to 458 billion in 2015.

While the capital market recorded net portfolio outflows in 2015 in line with global emerging market trends, the value of foreign ownership in the corporate bond market increased slightly from RM13.9 billion in 2014 to RM14.0 billion by end-2015.

Liquidation of foreign portfolio positions in the equity market also took place at a measured pace, with the FBMKLCI recording a decline of -3.9 per cent compared with the MSCI Emerging Markets index which fell -17 per cent over the same period, said the report.

In 2015, Ranjit said the SC continued to diversify channels for financing and investments while broadening access to the capital market by pursuing measures to deepen existing market segments and nurturing new growth areas.

One such area of focus was the Islamic capital market, where Malaysia had firmly established its reputation as a global leader in Islamic finance and the world’s largest issuer of sukuk.

He said extensive work was underway in formulating a roadmap which articulated the SC’s strategy to establish Malaysia as a global Islamic fund and wealth management hub, the release of which was slated for 2016.

Another key market developmental thrust is SC’s ongoing efforts to facilitate access to market-based financing for early and growth-stage companies.

“One of our first initiatives in this regard is the establishment of a regulatory safe harbour for equity crowdfunding (ECF), a class of fundraising activity which enables entrepreneurs to obtain market-based financing for start-ups and early-stage companies,” Ranjit said.

In February 2015, SC became the first regulator in the region to introduce a framework for ECF, with six applicants subsequently approved to become registered ECF platform operators in Malaysia.

Also, as a long-standing champion of initiatives to strengthen the quality of corporate governance in Malaysia, the SC recently concluded the implementation period of the Corporate Governance Blueprint 2011 with 83 per cent of its recommendations already fully implemented.

Moving forward, near-term deliverables included revisions to the Malaysian Code on Corporate Governance 2012, as well as, the release of the Corporate Governance Priorities 2020 which will detail SC’s initiatives for the next five years, he added. — Bernama

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Wednesday 23 March 2016

Malaysian capital market continues to expand in 2015 despite headwinds — SC

March 11, 2016, Friday

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All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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