The FOUR filters of Buffett

The FOUR filters of Buffett:

1.  You must understand the business of the company.
2.  The business must have a durable competitive advantage.
3.  The management must have talent and integrity.
4.  The price must be reasonable with a margin of safety.

Some may focus just on Filter 4 and still make money in their investing.

However, by incorporating Filters 1, 2 & 3 into their investing, they are less likely to encounter losses.  

Filters 1, 2 & 3 are there to prevent losses in your investing.  


[Nothing new, I have been following these for umpteen years.  My QMV method! ]      

In investing, it is just as important to know which companies to avoid.

In investing, it is just as important to know what are the companies you do not wish to invest in.

This is very important and if you are able to identify these companies that are not going to do well or that are going to do badly in their businesses, you can prevent yourself from a lot of future heart-aches and losses.

Being able to identify these companies that are going to do poorly over the long term, means you have the ability to also:

1.  identify those companies with good long term prospects, which you may choose to dwell in deeper into to prospect for your long term portfolio of stocks.

2.  identify those companies that are fundamentally poor which are presently exhibiting temporarily a period of exceptionally good results, so that you may avoid them.

These assessments are based mainly on the businesses of the companies.  Do not look at the stock prices for guidance, especially in the initial stages of your analysis of the companies prospects.

It is better to assess the quality of the business and the quality and integrity of the management first.

When you like what you analyse, then do a valuation of its intrinsic value.

Then determine at what price you will be willing to buy at with a margin of safety and a promise of satisfactory return.

Then look at the market price.  Looking at the market price to get guidance may bias you in your intrinsic value calculation.

ALL EQUITY SECURITY INVESTMENTS PRESENT A RISK OF LOSS OF CAPITAL

Investment performance is not guaranteed and future returns may differ from past returns. As investment conditions change over time, past returns should not be used to predict future returns. The results of your investing will be affected by a number of factors, including the performance of the investment markets in which you invest.

THE ULTIMATE HOLD-VERSUS-SELL TEST

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

SELL THE LOSERS, LET THE WINNERS RUN.

Losers refer NOT to those stocks with the depressed prices but to those whose revenues and earnings aren't capable of growing adequately. Weed out these losers and reinvest the cash into other stocks with better revenues and earnings potential for higher returns.

SOME THOUGHTS ON ANALYSING STOCKS (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following characteristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Investment

The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.
Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

MARGIN OF SAFETY CONCEPT: STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT LIKE GROCERIES, NOT LIKE PERFUME

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

MARKET FLUCTUATIONS OF INVESTOR'S PORTFOLIO

Note carefully what Graham is saying here. 

It is not just possible, but probable, that most of the stocks you own will gain at least 50% from their lowest price and lose at least 33% ("equivalent one-third") from their highest price -regardless of which stocks you own or whether the market as a whole goes up or down.

If you can't live with that - or you think your portfolio is somehow magically exempt from it - then you are not yet entitled to call yourself an investor.

KESM 7.6.2016

KESM Charts

Cyclical business

PE has expanded and contracted over the years.

Revenue growth is anaemic.

PBT and EPS have grown fast recently due to margin expansions for various reasons.

Its price was below RM 1 in recent years and has climbed to 6 before dropping to present levels recently.


Best time to be enthusiastic on cyclical stocks:


1.  When their PE is the highest in the cycle

2.  When their profit margins are the lowest in the cycle.

The company has about 50 m debts but is net cash positive.

Large capital expenditure expended last year.  

ROE is improving, was a single digit and now about 12%.

Its dividend is minuscule, DPO is about 15%.

DY at its present high price of 4.90 is about 1.6%.