Monday 17 July 2023

Is a strong currency a sign of a strong economy? Are we overlooking the risks of a strong currency?

1.   If currency starts appreciating too fast, foreigners will start buying local stocks or bonds not because they believe in the economy, but because they believe the rising currency will increase the US dollar value of those investments.  

2.  For a while this bet is self-fulfilling, as foreign money continues to drive up the value of the local currency.

3.  Eventually, though, an expensive currency makes the country's exports too pricey to compete in global markets.  

4.  The economy stalls, the currency crashes, and the country will be poised to grow only when it stabilizes again, at a competitive value.  


Summary

A cheap currency is good.  A currency that makes local prices feel affordable will draw money into the economy through exports, tourism and other channels.

An overpriced currency will encourage both locals and foreigners to move money out of the country, eventually sapping economic growth.

Successful nations feel cheap, at least to foreign visitors.  (The cars of some developed countries are so cheap relative to those of Malaysia.  The food and personal wears of some developed countries are so cheap relative to their incomes and also for visiting Malaysians too.)


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