If you are one of those people who suffered heavy losses over the past decade, it was most likely due to one of the following four reasons:
1. Bad market timing. I fear that too often investors attempt to time the markets, which is extremely difficult even for professional money managers.
As I have pointed out many times over the years, it is one thing to identify trends but quite another to pinpoint when they will result in major market turns. Sometimes, the time lag can be many months or even years. Being on the wrong side of the market during that period can prove to be very costly.
2. Aggressive asset allocation. Although it has been repeatedly proven to be the most important single factor in investment performance, many investors fail to use the principles of asset allocation in constructing their portfolios. This frequently results in a higher level of risk than is appropriate [because investors tend to] overweight stocks and/or equity mutual funds and underweight fixed-income securities.
I have seen many cases where people in their sixties and seventies had equity weightings of more than 75% and then were stunned when they lost a lot of money in the market bust of 2008 and 2009. For most people, a disciplined asset-allocation approach is the first step to successful investing.
3. Flawed advice. I just read another study purporting to show that Canadians who use financial advisors are better off than those who don't. This one came from the Investment Funds Institute of Canada (IFIC), most of whose products are sold by advisors.
[According to the report,] households with an advisor had 68 per cent of their money in "market-sensitive" securities (equities and mutual funds) and 32% in "conservative" vehicles (term deposits, savings accounts, bonds).
Those who did not use an advisor were split almost equally—51 per cent market-sensitive to 49 per cent conservative. I suspect that a similar U.S. study would produce comparable results.
Financial advisors, like all other professionals, aren't perfect. Sometimes the guidance they offer simply isn’t appropriate, either because it is inconsistent with a person's objectives and risk tolerance or because it is motivated at least in part by commissions. So, it is always a good idea to ask questions and be sure you understand exactly what you're buying before taking the plunge.
4. Pure speculation. Some people like to gamble, pure and simple. I have always said that the place for that is a casino, not the stock market, but there are investors who can't resist. Occasionally, they make a big score. More often, they lose their stake.
Successful long-term investing requires patience and discipline. That may not seem exciting, but it will pay off over time and you won't end up sending me e-mails bemoaning your losses.
Gordon Pape is editor of the Canada Report.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/four-ways-investors-go-wrong/article1730868/
In the grand surroundings of St Andrew Square, Edinburgh, lies First State Investments. Famed for its long and successful track record in emerging markets equities and star managers such as Angus Tulloch and Martin Lau, you could forgive the preconception that behind the big glass door would be deluxe leather chairs, corner offices and traders barking orders into phones. I spent a day there to experience a fund manager's life at first hand.
8AM
At a time when most people are just leaving for work, a dozen members of First State's global emerging markets (GEM) and Asia Pacific investment teams are gathering round a table, preparing for a cross-continent meeting.
We are crowded into what resembles a sixth-form common room, with photos of employees' weddings and nights out pinned to a board on the wall. At the foot of the table is a large television screen, where we are to expect images of similar scenes to appear, beamed from First State's Singapore and Hong Kong offices.
This is one of three meetings a week in which managers, directors and analysts meet to discuss companies in the region that may qualify for one or more of the GEM and Asia Pacific funds.
"If you took minutes of these meetings, you'd realise that we never draw any conclusions," said one of the team. "We often disagree about a company and one of us may choose to hold it in their fund while the other managers think it's a bad idea. There is not a house view."
After a few technical difficulties – "it was decided a while ago that Asia would call us, rather than us calling them, as we can't master the technology" – the meeting is up and running, chaired by Singapore-based Alistair Thompson, deputy head of Asia Pacific excluding Japan equities.
Themes discussed include infrastructure, currencies, interest rates and inflation – in Britain, Australia and Asia – as well as the hot topic of the moment, gold, and whether its price could double.
The group also reviews the big buyers and sellers of stocks – trades over $1m – that the funds hold and what this could mean for the funds' performance.
Banter is rife. Team members seem to revel in antagonising one another or demanding reasons for their stock positions, and there is little indication of hierarchy.
The First State approach to investing is to be accountable to investors rather than a benchmark. Managing partner Stuart Paul said investors knew their approach was as much about capital preservation as making returns. "You can outperform a benchmark but still lose money," he said. "That's not something we're interested in. Sometimes we might not make as much as an upmarket, but in 2000 when the MSCI emerging markets index lost 25pc, we only lost 9.5pc."
10AM
"We think it's in the interest of the client not to be too clever," said Mr Tulloch, explaining the absolute return style of investing his team champions.
Institutional investors make up just over half of First State's global emerging markets and Asia Pac Oeic (open-ended investment company) business. The team is required to keep in regular contact with its large clients, and so next on the agenda is a call to a European public pension scheme.
Mr Tulloch described how investors' location governed their interests, with Britain having a bias towards Asia Pacific and old Commonwealth allies, US investors preferring global emerging markets and in particular South America, and the Baltic region interested in Russia. This particular client has been invested since 2004 and is updated every quarter on the fund's performance, outlook and portfolio changes.
Staff changes within First State are explained, as are big buys and sells and any mistakes managers may have made. The client questions the impact of Chinese inflation on the fund and interest rates as well as property market speculation. Technological developments in 3G mobiles, the Thai elections and food prices are also on the agenda.
While this meeting is going on, other team members make research calls to Asia – these have to be in the morning because of the time difference. The team travels to meet remote companies, and is out of the country for about eight weeks a year. On top of this, members spend two months a year in either the Hong Kong or Singapore offices.
The house prefers not to have single-country funds, hence the Greater China fund is also invested in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
Alan Nesbit, deputy head of global emerging markets, said they preferred not to match the index weightings, as that made you focus on the past. "If you follow the index, you are constantly looking in the rear view mirror," he said. "The biggest emerging market changes – not that long ago it was Mexico."
12.30PM
Over a team lunch – a rare treat, I am told – we discuss the First State philosophy further. Millar Mathieson, senior analyst and portfolio manager, explained how even though Mr Tulloch was the boss, they felt just as comfortable questioning his investment decisions as those of the junior members of the team.
"There is no hierarchy like that – as you saw this morning," one said. "One of us can disagree with another, and just because Angus or Stuart believe something doesn't mean we have to toe their line."
2.30PM
In the afternoon there is an office visit from a Malaysian manufacturer with links to the medical industry, who is pitching for First State to invest. The manufacturer brought material samples along so that the team could touch and feel them; they have fun passing the products around. The company is assessed not just on profits and financial performance but also on the company's culture and ethics – whether they source raw materials sustainably and the ecological impact of production and waste disposal.
4PM
Most of the team's time is spent researching companies and prospective investments. Even if a company is not suitable for investment now, it is monitored for potential in the future.
Jonathan Asante, the head of global emerging markets, said that when the team met companies they were often told they asked different questions from other investment houses. He said: "We are concerned about the companies' culture; whether they are trustworthy, honest and good to their shareholders. We don't want to see a spreadsheet and a business model, anyone can mock those up."
The biggest companies in emerging markets are often state owned, so First State spends some time educating companies about the value of small shareholders.
Since 2004 First State has been limiting new investment into the Asia Pacific fund and has actively discouraged new investors from the Latin America fund.
The team is finding that prices are high at the moment and the best companies come at a premium. "We have written to clients saying it is difficult at the moment – don't invest any more. Sit tight," Mr Asante said. "You can always find rubbish that's cheap, but we're not interested in rubbish."
4.30PM
I head for the exit, while Mr Tulloch and his colleagues continue to chew over the endless facts, figures and research notes that pass their desks. They tell me they rarely leave before 7pm.