Showing posts with label Intelligent Investor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Intelligent Investor. Show all posts

Sunday 13 May 2012

Intelligent Investor Summary

Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor

Graham, Chapter 1: 
Graham lays out his definition of investing right from the start of this chapter. His description is "an investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return" (p. 18). He labels anything not meeting these standards as speculation. Graham then describes two different approaches to investing: defensive and aggressive. Obviously, safety is a big concern for the defensive investor, and that shows in his example of putting half of your money in stocks and half in bonds. He lists other approaches of defensive investing, like investing only in well established companies, and dollar-cost averaging. Graham's take on aggressive investing isn't as kind. The three types of the aggressive approach (trading the market, short-term selectivity, and long-term selectivity) are all considered to have less profitability. This is explained by the possibility of the aggressive investor being wrong on his or her market timing. 
Graham, Chapter 8:
In chapter eight of Graham's book, he brings up the subject of market fluctuation. I think he makes an important point to those people who are monitoring their retirement portfolios almost on a daily basis. He states that "the investor with a portfolio of sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances" (p. 206). With this in mind, he suggests using these fluctuations in the market as a guide to making investment decisions. More precisely, he suggests using the dips in the market as points to acquire more of a quality stock along with finding new opportunities for suitable investments.
Graham, Chapter 9:
Mutual funds are the subject of the ninth chapter of The Intelligent Investor. Fund performance and the different types of funds available to the investor are covered. One of those types of funds is the performance fund, which seeks to outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average in this case, so they are the more aggressive of the funds. Another type, the closed-end fund only offers a specific number of shares at one time, instead of continuously, and is the most illiquid of the bunch. The last mutual fund type Graham mentions in this chapter is the balanced fund. These types of funds contain a certain percentage of bond holdings. Even the conservatively investing Graham suggests you would be better off investing in bonds by themselves, rather than mixed in a fund with stocks.
Graham, Chapter 20:
Chapter 20 is entitled "Margin of Safety as the Central Concept of Investment" (p. 512). I think this chapter sums up Graham's investing philosophy. He not only covers the risk of buying a good quality stock at a high price, but buying a poor quality stock at a high price during an up-trending market. The latter is one of the riskier moves you can do with your money in the context of the margin-of-safety. On the other hand, purchasing stock in a good quality company, even if it's at a high price, will ultimately end up being the better choice. One other important point in this chapter is the mention of diversification as a tool of safety, not perfection. While he doesn't go into specific methods of diversification, Graham does point out that even if one stock tanks, diversifying your portfolio "guarantees only that (you) have a better chance for profit than for loss - not that loss is impossible" (p. 518)


http://jeffpearson.efoliomn.com/iis

Saturday 12 May 2012

Benjamin Graham on Market Behavior


In Security Analysis, Benjamin Graham emphasizes the importance of not only focusing on a firm’s potential and accounting statements, but to also pay great attention to the business cycle. Individual investors should research and create their own one year outlook for the market.
Almost any security may be a sound purchase at some real or prospective price and an indicated sale at another price.
- Benjamin Graham, Security Analysis

Think Long-Term

However, Graham also stresses that day-to-day and month-to-month fluctuations of the market should be ignored. Instead, investors should focus on the major shifts in market sentiment and estimating what stage of the business cylce we are in. Clearly today we are in a brutal bear market that has brought down the S&P 500 over 40% year to date. But we have to ask ourselves, what inning of this bear market are we in? Where do we see the strongest values in the market?

Benjamin Graham on Investing in Bear Markets

In a typical case of bear-market hysteria or pessimism the investor would be better off if he were not able to sell out so readily; in fact, he is often better off if he does not even know what changes are taking place in the market price of his securities.
- Benjamin Graham, Security Analysis
Graham’s sentiment on holding onto securities in a bear market could have taken a huge chunk out of someone’s portfolio this year, I know holding onto crashing stocks has severly hurt my portfolio. However at this state of the bear market I believe the above quote is appropriate.
It is ill-advised at this moment in time to liquidate investments into weakness. Your portfolio may depreciate in the coming months, but sometimes you have to take a 3 month deep breath and try your best to not follow your stock prices on a daily basis and just enjoy your dividend yields! To do this you have to be sure that your portfolio is filled with strong, value stocks with years of consistent earnings growth. Ignoring equity prices does not mean you should ignore the latest news from stocks you own. Shares should be sold if there is a fundamental shift in the companies’ long-term outlook.
Even though Warren Buffet’s 2 month-old investment in Goldman Sachs (GS) at $115 a share has fallen almost in half to $65 a share, I’m willing to bet he is sleeping well at night knowing he is invested in a first-in class company (although the investment banking class may be gone forever) and enjoying a 10% dividend yield from his preferred stock.

Don’t Purchase a Stock at Any Price

Finding the strongest values is no easy task, and Benjamin Graham gives some bull market advice that is worth remembering once this cycle changes gears. “Don’t purchase stocks atany price.” He writes that great companies don’t necessarily indicate a great investment if their stock price is comparatively high. Be a patient investor and wait until the company drops to an attractive level. For instance during a bull market in 2006 you could have bought Microsoft (MSFT) at a high of $30.19 or a low of $21.92 (or today at $19.15!) - a 27% variation. If a stock price of a company you have been watching continues to soar far above the intristic value (you can use my post on the Dividend Growth Model to estimate intrinsic value) you give the company, don’t feel like you missed the boat, in the long-term the price very well will come down to levels you like or their earnings will improve to increase your valutation.

When to Invest In Small Cap Stocks

Graham also notes that small cap stocks are more sensitive to swings in the overall market. Your position in small caps should be minimized in your portfolio if you have a weak outlook for the coming year and your small cap positions should be increased in bull markets. This sentiment is supported decades after Graham’s writing, consider comparing SPDR DJ Wilshire Small Cap Growth (DSG) which retreated 49% YTD vs. SPDR DJ Wilshire Large Cap Growth (ELG) which declined only (only!?) 43% YTD.

Beware of Bull Markets

Beware of “bargains” when most stock prices are high. An undervalued, neglected stock may continue to be neglected through the end of the bull market and may potential be one of the hardest hit stocks in the following bear market.

Market Environment, Potential Value, and Intristic Value Produce Market Price




Post written by Max Asciutto


http://www.theintelligentinvestor.net/benjamin-graham-on-market-behavior

Thursday 8 March 2012

The investor's concept of a margin of safety


 The investor's concept of a margin of safety rests upon a simple and definite arithmetical reasoning from statistical data.

  1. There is no guarantee that the fundamental quantitative approach will be successful in the future, but no reason for pessimism. 
  2. "To have a true investment there must be present a true margin of safety." 


"It is our argument that a sufficiently low price can turn a security of mediocre quality into a sound investment opportunity--provided

  • that the buyer is informed and experienced and 
  • that he practices adequate diversification. 


For if the price is low enough to create a substantial margin of safety, the security thereby meets our criterion of investment.


http://www.conscious-investor.com/books/intelligentinvestor.pdf

Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor


 Summary

1. Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike. 

2. Every corporate security may best be viewed as an ownership interest in, or a claim against a specific business enterprise ... and the investor seeking to make profits from his security purchases and sales, is embarking on a business venture which must be run in accordance with accepted business principles.

3. Principles of business

  • know your business -- for the securities investor, this means do not try to make "business profits" out of securities--that is returns in excess of normal interest and dividend income. 
  • do not let anyone else run your business unless you can adequately supervise, and you have unusually strong reason to have confidence in the integrity and ability of the person. 
  • do not enter upon an operation unless a reliable calculation shows that it has a fair chance to profit-- not based on optimism, but on arithmetic. 
  • have the courage of your knowledge and experience

Saturday 4 February 2012

Meet the Isa millionaires



Dozens of people have created huge pots of money by the simple act of investing in individual savings accounts.


Ivan McKay with his cattle herd
Image 1 of 2
Ivan McKay has managed to accrue an Isa pot of £1.6m  


Ignore your tax-free Isa allowance at your peril – you could be missing out on a million-pound fortune. Savers who have religiously salted away their full annual Pep and Isa allowance over the past 25 years have amassed a tidy fortune; there are dozens of Isa millionaires across the country.
Brewin Dolphin, the private client investment manager, boasts nine Isa millionaires among its clients. Their investments have a combined value of £15.5m, with the highest having a combined Pep and Isa pot of £4.4m.
Charlotte Black of Brewin Dolphin said its Isa millionaires invested in individual shares, rather than funds – with many stocks at the smaller end of the FTSE scale.
Ms Black admitted that many of the shares that had made sizeable gains would have been off the average investor's radar – and too risky. But she added that everyone with spare cash should maximise their Isa allowance, which this tax year is £10,680.
"Isas and Peps [personal equity plans, Isas' predecessors] have been such a valuable savings medium over the past 25 years and we advise clients never to miss a chance to use them, either alone or as a tax-free zone within their portfolio. Our millionaires have each adopted a more risky investment strategy and it is exciting to see how that has paid off for some."

So just how easy is it to become an Isa millionaire?

It may sound a long shot but Killik & Co, the stockbroker, which has around 16 Isa millionaires among its clients, reckons that modest growth of 5pc a year and the small matter of a 25-year horizon will do the trick for a couple pooling their Isa allowances. "Assuming a 5pc rate of growth a year, this could be worth £1.074m, or £1.686m assuming 8pc growth," said a spokesman.
John Cotter of Barclays Stockbrokers (which also has 16 millionaires) said: "Some have achieved Isa millionaire status by having a lot of eggs in just a few baskets – a risky strategy. Some have backed their judgment in one or two companies and their strategies have paid off; again, risky. They have also recognised the importance of reinvestment of the dividends."

The savvy investors

Not surprisingly, few Isa millionaires want to put their head above the parapet and, like many National Lottery winners, they shun publicity. But fortunately there are a couple of savvy investors who are happy to share their Isa joy.
One such couple, John Housden and his wife, Judith, from Kent, have accrued a combined pot of £1.3m having invested around £190,000 each since the first year of Peps in 1988. It pays them a handsome income of £57,000 a year. Mr Housden kicked off his portfolio with £3,000 worth of Midland Bank shares. He has added to his holding in the company (which was taken over by HSBC in 1992) since and his stake is worth around £40,000 today.
It has not all been plain sailing for the Housdens. Among the winners there have been some losers – notably, he says, Woolworths, Yell and Jarvis. But he rates his decision to buy Rolls-Royce shares as, perhaps, his smartest move. Mr Housden, who does his own research, bought £3,500 of the shares when they were worth 147p – they are now priced at 738p.
A top tip for all would-be Isa millionaires is to be patient, even when you are gripped by fear as share prices plummet amid rumours of stock market Armageddon.
"As a rule I don't worry about fluctuations in capital value as I tend to think of the Isas as a source of retirement income," said Mr Housden. "Just as well really, because the value now (£1.34m) is much the same as in June 2007, although in March 2009 it had fallen to just £760,000."
Ivan McKay, a sheep farmer and Daily Telegraph reader from Northern Ireland, has amassed a Pep and Isa pot worth £1.6m. He uses two brokers, Barclays Stockbrokers and Walker Crips Weddle Beck. Mr McKay said he had never forgotten the advice his local accountant gave him when he was about to invest in his first Pep. "He said to me, 'be your own man'.
"If I read a paper with a star-studded share panel, I won't follow their tip if I think the price is high," said Mr McKay. "I have often been proved right."
Mr McKay said he had had two "outstanding" buys and his top secret to investors was "to take profits" along the way.
For example, he bought Babcock International when its share price was just 53p but has taken profits as it continued its climb (it is now priced at 740p). He also bought Scottish & Southern Energy in 1989 at 240p (the shares now stand at £12.35) and this year it is paying a dividend of 80p – that's a return of 33pc in itself, he says proudly.
Mr McKay added: "I'm a livestock farmer so I work long 16-hour days when the weather is dry, but can catch up on my reading about shares when it's been raining – and it has been raining a lot recently."
His most recent purchase is XP Power, the power components company, which he bought at 925p, having watched its price slide from a high of £19 since the start of the year. The price has since ticked up to 983p.
"My school never put me forward for exams so I went back to the plough when I left. But I always believed I was as clever as those who went on to university," Mr McKay said.
Another Isa millionaire is a 71-year-old reader from the Midlands who wished to remain anonymous. The former stockbroker, who uses Redmayne Bentley, said he followed the cliched mantra of "run with your profits and cut your losses". He is also not afraid to go "liquid" if he feels the market is a little choppy. He has done this only twice, before the dotcom bust of the late Nineties and just before the credit crunch got into full swing in 2008.
"You should only ever sell a share when it is overvalued, not because it has gone up by 100pc," he said.
One of his oldest holdings remains in his portfolio today. The company, FW Thorpe, a family-run business that provides lighting to the public sector, has seen its share price rise from around 100p in 2000 to 837p today. "It's a fascinating company that has always had a Thorpe at the helm," he said.
And his latest purchase? "This week I have bought Imperial Tobacco for the first time. It looks undervalued to me, has an attractive yield and is unlikely to go bust."

Sunday 22 January 2012

Graham separates Intelligent Investors into two camps: Defensive and Enterprising


Graham also goes on to separate intelligent investors into two camps:


  • Defensive Investor: One who wants safety and less involvement
  • Enterprising Investor: One who wants higher returns that he/she is willing to work for


In contrast to the conventional view, an enterprising investor is not one who is more risky or aggressive; instead, it is one who has an interest in investing and is willing to work hard for it. I think it is important for investors to figure out which category they fall into. 

Most people fall into the “defensive investor” category.  Graham provides examples such as::

  •  a widow who cannot afford unnecessary risks, 
  • a physician who cannot devote the time for proper analysis, and 
  • a young man whose small investment will not return enough gain to justify the extra effort. 
The beginning investor should not try to beat the market.

The investor only realizes a loss in value through the sale of the asset or the significant deterioration of the firm’s underlying value.  Careful selection and diversification helps to avoid these risks.  

A more common and difficult problem is overpaying for securities; that is, paying more for a security than its intrinsic value warrants.


Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor - Summary Notes

Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor Summary


Intelligent Investor Summary

Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor

Graham, Chapter 1: 
Graham lays out his definition of investing right from the start of this chapter. His description is "an investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return" (p. 18). He labels anything not meeting these standards as speculation. Graham then describes two different approaches to investing: defensive and aggressive. Obviously, safety is a big concern for the defensive investor, and that shows in his example of putting half of your money in stocks and half in bonds. He lists other approaches of defensive investing, like investing only in well established companies, and dollar-cost averaging. Graham's take on aggressive investing isn't as kind. The three types of the aggressive approach (trading the market, short-term selectivity, and long-term selectivity) are all considered to have less profitability. This is explained by the possibility of the aggressive investor being wrong on his or her market timing. 
Graham, Chapter 8:
In chapter eight of Graham's book, he brings up the subject of market fluctuation. I think he makes an important point to those people who are monitoring their retirement portfolios almost on a daily basis. He states that "the investor with a portfolio of sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances" (p. 206). With this in mind, he suggests using these fluctuations in the market as a guide to making investment decisions. More precisely, he suggests using the dips in the market as points to acquire more of a quality stock along with finding new opportunities for suitable investments.
Graham, Chapter 9:
Mutual funds are the subject of the ninth chapter of The Intelligent Investor. Fund performance and the different types of funds available to the investor are covered. One of those types of funds is the performance fund, which seeks to outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average in this case, so they are the more aggressive of the funds. Another type, the closed-end fund only offers a specific number of shares at one time, instead of continuously, and is the most illiquid of the bunch. The last mutual fund type Graham mentions in this chapter is the balanced fund. These types of funds contain a certain percentage of bond holdings. Even the conservatively investing Graham suggests you would be better off investing in bonds by themselves, rather than mixed in a fund with stocks.
Graham, Chapter 20:
Chapter 20 is entitled "Margin of Safety as the Central Concept of Investment" (p. 512). I think this chapter sums up Graham's investing philosophy. He not only covers the risk of buying a good quality stock at a high price, but buying a poor quality stock at a high price during an up-trending market. The latter is one of the riskier moves you can do with your money in the context of the margin-of-safety. On the other hand, purchasing stock in a good quality company, even if it's at a high price, will ultimately end up being the better choice. One other important point in this chapter is the mention of diversification as a tool of safety, not perfection. While he doesn't go into specific methods of diversification, Graham does point out that even if one stock tanks, diversifying your portfolio "guarantees only that (you) have a better chance for profit than for loss - not that loss is impossible" (p. 518).


http://jeffpearson.efoliomn.com/IIS

Saturday 21 January 2012

"By far, the best book on investing ever written." - Warren Buffett

The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham






Preface to the Fourth Edition,
by Warren E. Buffett

I read the first edition of this book early in 1950, when I was nineteen. I thought then that it was by far the best book about investing ever written. I still think it is.

To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information.  What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.  This book precisely and clearly prescribes the proper framework. You must supply the emotional discipline.

If you follow the behavioral and business principles that Graham advocates—and if you pay special attention to the invaluable advice in Chapters 8 and 20—you will not get a poor result from your investments. (That represents more of an accomplishment than you might think.) Whether you achieve outstanding results will depend on the effort and intellect you apply to your investments, as well as on the amplitudes of stock-market folly that prevail during your investing career. The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business-like investor. Follow Graham and you will profit from folly rather than participate in it.

To me, Ben Graham was far more than an author or a teacher.  More than any other man except my father, he influenced my life.  Shortly after Ben’s death in 1976, I wrote the following short remembrance about him in the Financial Analysts Journal. As you read the book, I believe you’ll perceive some of the qualities I mentioned in this tribute.




BENJAMIN GRAHAM
1894–1976

Several years ago Ben Graham, then almost eighty, expressed to a friend the thought that he hoped every day to do “something foolish, something creative and something generous.”

The inclusion of that first whimsical goal reflected his knack for packaging ideas in a form that avoided any overtones of sermonizing or self-importance. Although his ideas were powerful, their delivery was unfailingly gentle.

Readers of this magazine need no elaboration of his achievements as measured by the standard of creativity. It is rare that the founder of a discipline does not find his work eclipsed in rather short order by successors.  But over forty years after publication of the book that brought structure and logic to a disorderly and confused activity, it is difficult to think of possible candidates for even the runner-up position in the field of security analysis. In an area where much looks foolish within weeks or months after publication, Ben’s principles have remained sound—their value often enhanced and better understood in the wake of financial storms that demolished flimsier intellectual structures. His counsel of soundness brought unfailing rewards to his followers—even to those with natural abilities inferior to more gifted practitioners who stumbled while following counsels of brilliance or fashion.

A remarkable aspect of Ben’s dominance of his professional field was that he achieved it without that narrowness of mental activity that concentrates all effort on a single end. It was, rather, the incidental by-product of an intellect whose breadth almost exceeded definition. Certainly I have never met anyone with a mind of similar scope. Virtually total recall, unending fascination with new knowledge, and an ability to recast it in a form applicable to seemingly unrelated problems made exposure to his thinking in any field a delight.

But his third imperative—generosity—was where he succeeded beyond all others. I knew Ben as my teacher, my employer, and my friend. In each relationship—just as with all his students, employees, and friends—there was an absolutely open-ended, no-scores-kept generosity of ideas, time, and spirit. If clarity of thinking was required, there was no better place to go. And if encouragement or counsel was needed, Ben was there.

Walter Lippmann spoke of men who plant trees that other men will sit under. Ben Graham was such a man.

Reprinted from the Financial Analysts Journal, November/December 1976.



Sunday 11 December 2011

Why invest directly?

Why invest directly?

Direct investment gives the investor control over those assets and investments, including the making of decisions relating to those investments and their day-to-day management and administration.  Accordingly, direct investment will suit those investors with the time and expertise required to manage their own affairs, either by themselves, or in conjunction with an adviser.

Direct share investments offer a number of advantages:

  • Liquidity (quick conversion to cash)
  • Daily valuation of your investment
  • Growth through new issues (e.g. bonus issues)
  • Flexibility
  • Safeguards/security 
  • Free and open market
  • Convenient and easy transferred ownership, and
  • Usually no holding cost once purchased.


Investment checklist:  Liquidity, Valuation, Stock Exchange lsited, Cost effective

Monday 30 May 2011

On Investing: The many hats of great investors


Barry Ritholtz

Barry Ritholtz
Columnist

On Investing: The many hats of great investors

The crowd becomes an unthinking mob at tops and bottoms. Being able to read the emotional state of the market, as well as keeping your own emotions in check, are hallmarks of great investors.

Trial lawyer: Good litigators are always skeptical, but not negative. Is that witness telling the truth? What is motivating him? Is the opposing counsel’s argument logical? Being able to answer these questions makes for a good lawyer – and a good investor.
All CEOs want you to buy their company’s stock; every analyst wants you to follow his equity calls; every fund manager wants to run your money. When it comes to investing, everyone is trying to separate you from your money. Good investing requires good judgment. Being able to recognize valuable intel versus the usual blather is a huge advantage.
Like a good litigator, you must question data, consider alternative explanations, argue against the obvious. You cannot blindly accept everything you hear as truth, nor can you reject everything out of hand. Being able to discern between information that is valuable and that which is not, is crucial.
Mathematician/statistician: Investing is filled with math: compound interest-rates, dividend yields, long-term gains, price-to-earnings ratio, risk-adjusted returns, percentage draw downs, annualized rate of returns.
Don’t worry if you suffer from math anxiety: If you can operate the simplest calculator — even the free one that came with your computer — you have the requisite math skills needed.
If you follow the professional literature there is a plethora of advanced mathematical formulas of dubious utility. Value-at-risk is a complex mathematical formula that was supposed to tell Wall Street banks how much risk they could safely assume. It failed to prevent them from blowing themselves up during the credit crisis. The Sharpe ratio measures the excess return — the “risk premium” — an investment strategy has. Even William Sharpe, its creator, has said it’s been misapplied by Wall Street’s wizards.
Investors can ignore these sorts of mathematical esoterics. But understanding basic math is key.
Accountant: When you buy a stock, you are buying an interest in a company’s future revenue and profit. How much you pay for that future cash flow determines whether you are over or under paying. That means understanding the basics of a company’s books is a key to recognizing value.
An understanding of basic accounting is essential to grasping the fundamental health of a company or business model. It is how you determine whether an existing company is profitable, or when a young firm might become profitable. But it also can help you determine when a formerly profitable company is heading down the wrong path.
You don’t have to be a forensic accountant. These are sleuths in green visors poring over pages and pages of quarterly filings and footnotes, looking for evidence of fraud or accounting shenanigans. Forensic accountants are the guys who discovered the frauds at Enron and Worldcom, and they warned about AIG and Lehman Brothers.
Amazingly, even after these frauds were revealed, many investors refused to believe them. Having a basic knowledge about accounting can help you understand and heed the work of forensic accountants.
You don’t need to have an MBA or doctorate in economics to be a good investor. Indeed, as the spectacular blow up at Long-Term Capital Management has taught us, these can be impediments to good investing.
Instead, you need to develop more general skills. Learn market history, understand crowd psychology, how to think critically, be able to do simple math and understand basic accounting. Do this, and you are on the path to becoming a much better investor.
Ritholtz is chief executive of FusionIQ, a quantitative research firm. He runs a finance blog, The Big Picture.

Saturday 22 January 2011

Learn Patience. Yes, patience is a virtue you must have as a value investor.

You can never count on stocks for short-term needs.  As long as you have at least 5 to 10 years and you have chosen a solid company, there's a good chance you won't have to take a loss on a stock.  But you must be patient and willing to wait for the market to turn around for that stock.

Yes, patience is a virtue you must have as a value investor.  To get a good bargain, you need the patience to wait for a stock to recover, as well as the risk tolerance that allows you to hang tough even if the stock has been beaten down.

How do you know if the company is still on the right track?  That comes with research and what Graham calls intelligent investing.

To be an intelligent investor, you must have the time and knowledge to carefully pick your stocks and then monitor your portfolio.  So if your time constraints won't allow you the time you'll need for the research, you may need to be a passive rather than active investor.  These differences will impact the type of portfolio you want to build as a defensive value investor.

You also need to know how you will react when the market takes a nosedive and drops 10% to 15%.  Are you the type of investor who will run for the hills and sell off all your stock?  If so, you do not have the risk tolerance to be an active investor; you need to develop a more passive portfolio with steady returns.  A down market is the time an active defensive investor looks for good buys.

Another question you must ask is, what will you do when the market is going up 10% to 15% or more?  If you think you're the type of investor that will jump on the bandwagon, you don't have the discipline to win as a value investor.  When the market goes up that dramatically, stocks are usually overpriced.  Active defensive investors might sell SOME winning holdings, but they would NOT likely buy any stock during this type of market unless they believe they've found a good beaten-down stock that the crowd missed.

While value investors need to learn patience, you should never hang tough if you believe you made a mistake and the company is performing much worse than you expected, or if you no longer believe in the company's management team.  Take your hit and get out before things get even worse.

Tuesday 18 January 2011

Are You an Intelligent Investor?

Graham believed someone could be an intelligent investor in two ways:

ACTIVE OR ENTERPRISING INVESTORS -  These types of investors have a lot of time to spend on building and managing their portfolios and also have a high risk tolerance.  They must continually research, select, and monitor a dynamic mix of stocks, bonds, or mutual funds.

PASSIVE OR DEFENSIVE INVESTORS - These types of investors don't have a lot of time to spend on a portfolio or can't tolerate much risk.  They must create a permanent portfolio that runs on autopilot and requires no further effort.  This type of passive portfolio won't be very exciting, but it will get you steady returns over your lifetime.

Friday 6 August 2010

Investment Performance Depends on Intelligent Effort

Graham disagreed with the usual postulated risk-return relationship, that is, to earn a higher return an investor must accept higher risk. To the contrary, he felt that the more intelligent effort one put into investing, the better the bargains bought. And the better the bargains, the lower the risk.

Thus intelligent investing provides high yields and low risk. Finance academicians often fail to appreciate this point.

Monday 12 April 2010

The Amazing 7% Annual Growth Rate

Granted, making the first million dollar is the most difficult.  I shan't dwell into this.  But for those who already have this $1 million, they should learn all about the amazing maths behind growing this amount at 7% per year.

What does growing at 7% per year look like?  It means doubling your money every 10 years.  Therefore, if you have $1 invested today, this $1 will grow thus:

00 year - 2010  $1
10 year - 2020  $2
20 year - 2030  $4
30 year - 2040  $8
40 year - 2050  $16
50 year - 2060  $32
60 year - 2070  $64

Study these numbers carefully.  Note the incremental amount of money grown in each of these 10 years period below:

00 year - 2010  $-
10 year - 2020  +$1
20 year - 2030  +$2
30 year - 2040  +$4
40 year - 2050  +$8
50 year - 2060  +$16
60 year - 2070  +$32

In particular, note that the incremental growth for each of the latest 10 year period, exceeds ALL the growth of the preceding years.  Therefore, the incremental growth of the 10 years from 2060 to 2070 exceeds ALL the growth of the previous 50 years from 2010 to 2060.  

Herein lies the power and magic of compounding.  Understanding this is very important to grow your wealth.  Starting early in your investing is extremely important.  Not losing money is important as a moderate growth rate in the absence of losses will translate to a large gain over many years.

Warren Buffett has been investing since his teenage years.  Now approaching his 80s soon, he has been investing for the last 60 years.  It is not surprising that he is one of the richest man in the world as he has been able to compound his money at phenomenal rates for so many years.  What is perhaps worth mentioning is that everytime his wealth doubles over a given period, the incremental wealth for that period exceeds ALL the sum of the incremental wealth for all his previous investing periods.

Now that you have your first $1 million, go forth and multiply.  You need not aim for too high a growth.  A modest 7% annual growth rate over many years can transform this figure into a large number.  Of course, you may be able to do better than this.   You will also be amazed by the numbers that come with an additional 1 or 2% additional growth per year.

Do not make mistakes.  Luck should play little part in your investing.  Investing is fun.  It is safe.  

Ref:
The Rule of 72

The magic of exponential growth.  What does growing at 7% per year mean to you?