myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Showing posts with label Petgas. Show all posts

Thursday 24 November 2011

Petronas Gas

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date	Financial Yr. End	Qtr	Period End	Revenue RM '000	Profit/Lost RM'000	EPS	Amended
24-Nov-11	31-Dec-11	Other	30-Sep-11	927,324	350,091	17.70	-
17-Aug-11	31-Dec-11	Other	30-Jun-11	916,553	386,724	19.54	-
11-May-11	31-Mar-11	4	31-Mar-11	891,190	266,563	13.48	-
22-Feb-11	31-Mar-11	3	31-Dec-10	892,687	400,719	20.25	-

Share Price Performance

	High		Low
Prices 1 Month	13.980	(14-Nov-11)	12.920	(22-Nov-11)
Prices 3 Months	14.680	(15-Sep-11)	12.300	(21-Oct-11)
Prices 12 Months	14.680	(15-Sep-11)	10.780	(20-Dec-10)
Volume 12 Months	129,177	(31-May-11)	879	(01-Aug-11)

ttm-EPS 70.79 sen
Price $ 13.26
Trailing PE 18.7 x

Thursday 25 August 2011

RM15bil Gas project to benefit TNB

Thursday August 25, 2011

RM15bil Gas project to benefit TNB

By LEONG HUNG YEE
hungyee@thestar.com.my

Increased supply to alleviate utility firm’s gas shortage in the longer term

PETALING JAYA: The RM15bil gas exploration project in the North Malay Basin, to be undertaken by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) and its production-sharing contract (PSC) partners, will benefit a number oil and gas companies as well as utility giant Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB).

Analysts said the project would provide a boost to the oil and gas industry as contracts would be dished out for the commissioning of the new project as well as the increase in gas volume for Petronas' customers.

A key customer is TNB, which has been facing prolonged gas shortage for months and is currently getting 30% less than it is supposed to. TNB said the gas curtailment exercise by Petronas had severely impacted its bottom line, prompting the company to issue a warning on its profitability and dividend payment.

The project will give assurance of supply in the longer term. But this will not solve the immediate gas shortage problem in the country. — SKR Research Head Chris Eng

On average, TNB was getting about 900 million standard cu ft per day (mmscfd), far from the usual rate of 1,250 mmscfd.

“It will be good for the industry. It means there will be more assurance of gas supply in the country. The project will give assurance of supply in the longer term. But this will not solve the immediate gas shortage problem in the country,” said OSK Research head Chris Eng.

A local bank-backed analyst said although the project would not solve the immediate gas shortage problem as the first gas was expected in 2013, the project was nevertheless a boost for Petronas customers.

“It remains to be seen how much gas will TNB get in the future, given the increase in gas capacity when the North Malay Basin project comes on stream,” he said.

Based on TNB's current gas power generation capacity, the volume needed is about 1,700 mmcfd. The power sector is entitled to about 1,350 mmscfd.

CIMB Research said the new project was a “positive development” forPetronas Gas Bhd, which would benefit from additional transport and processing revenues from 2013, when the first gas was expected.

The research house said Wah Seong Corp Bhd could also benefit from pipe-coating works.

OSK Research believes the first to benefit among the oil and gas support services providers would include fabricators (such as Kencana Petroleum Bhd and Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Bhd), pipe layers (SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd) and centralised tankage facilities operator Dialog Group Bhd.

The research house said there should be flow-through to vessel players like Perdana Petroleum Bhd, Alam Maritim Resources Bhd and Tanjung Offshore Bhd to transport the fabricated structures to the offshore platforms.

Subsequently, the hook-up and commissioning as well as brownfield service providers like Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd, Petra Energy Bhd and even Kencana may benefit from the initial set-up and maintenance activities on the platforms. KNM Group Bhd may also get some jobs for its process equipment segment even though the bulk of its sales are from outside Malaysia.

OSK Research analyst Jason Yap said the main objective of the project was to “help sustain the supply of gas” to Petronas customers in Peninsular Malaysia.

“And, in doing so, Petronas would be able to benefit from the recently introduced incentives by the Government, particularly for the development of marginal fields, high carbon dioxide gas fields and fields located in high-pressure, high-temperature conditions.

“Also, with the gradual revision of gas prices to domestic customers by the Government, this helps to make the project more economically feasible for Petronas and its PSC contractors,” Yap said.

On Tuesday, Petronas said it was embarking on the North Malay Basin upstream project to extract gas from fields off Peninsular Malaysia.

Petronas said the project comprised nine discovered gas fields within Blocks PM301 and PM302 and in the Bergading contract area, about 300km off the peninsula's coast.

“It will also involve the development of a new 200km pipeline to transport gas from the fields to Kertih, Terengganu. The project is estimated to cost RM15bil.

“Petronas and its PSC partners are undertaking the project on an accelerated basis. First delivery of 100 million mmscfd is expected by early 2013, ramping up to 250 mmscfd by 2015,” it said.

Wednesday 30 March 2011

Dividends Track Record of Petronas Gas Berhad

Company	Particulars	Date announced	Ex-Date	To those registered by	To be paid on	Total for yr so far	Total for prev yr
PETGAS	Interim Single Tier 15¢	01-Dec-10	13-Dec-10	15-Dec-10	29-Dec-10	15¢	50¢
	Final Single Tier 30¢+5¢TE	30-Jun-10	30-Jul-10	03-Aug-10	17-Aug-10	50¢	50¢
	Interim Single Tier 15¢ TE	20-Nov-09	03-Dec-09	07-Dec-09	17-Dec-09	15¢	50¢
	Fina 20¢TE, 5.1¢&9.9¢TEsingle t	08-Jul-09	30-Jul-09	03-Aug-09	19-Aug-09	50¢	50¢
	Interim 15¢	19-Nov-08	02-Dec-08	04-Dec-08	18-Dec-08	15¢	50¢
	Final 20¢ TE + 15¢	30-Jun-08	29-Jul-08	31-Jul-08	20-Aug-08	50¢	45¢
	Interim 15¢	14-Nov-07	03-Dec-07	05-Dec-07	14-Dec-07	15¢	45¢
	Final 20¢ TE + 10¢	03-Jul-07	31-Jul-07	02-Aug-07	23-Aug-07	45¢	40¢
	Interim 15¢	15-Nov-06	01-Dec-06	05-Dec-06	15-Dec-06	15¢	40¢
	Final 25¢ TE	03-Jul-06	01-Aug-06	03-Aug-06	23-Aug-06	40¢	30¢
	Interim 15¢	16-Nov-05	01-Dec-05	05-Dec-05	15-Dec-05	15¢	30¢
	Final 20¢ TE	21-Jul-05	08-Aug-05	10-Aug-05	23-Aug-05	30¢	20¢
	Interim 10¢ TE	10-Nov-04	01-Dec-04	03-Dec-04	15-Dec-04	10¢	20¢
	Final 5¢ + 5¢ TE	06-Jul-04	03-Aug-04	05-Aug-04	20-Aug-04	20¢	30¢

Thursday 24 February 2011

PetGas 3Q net profit up 50.4% to RM400m on higher gas processing revenue

PetGas 3Q net profit up 50.4% to RM400m on higher gas processing revenue
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Tuesday, 22 February 2011 19:30

KUALA LUMPUR: PETRONAS GAS BHD [] (PetGas) net profit increased 50.4% to RM400.74 million for the third quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 from RM266.47 million a year ago driven by higher gas processing and gas transportation revenue.

It said on Tuesday, Feb 22 that revenue rose 10% to RM892.69 million from RM810.89 million. Earnings per share were 20.25 sen while net assets per share was RM4.14.

For the nine months ended Dec 31, PetGas’s net profit rose 58.2% to RM1.17 billion from RM739.5 million a year ago while its revenue increased by 8.67% to RM2.63 billion from RM2.42 billion.

Commenting on its prospects, PetGas said revenue from the new fee structure under the gas processing and transmission agreement (GPTA) hinged on the volume of the gas processed at the gas processing plants as well as volume of gas delivered directly into the pipeline network.

“The performance based structure will continue to provide PetGas with additional earnings potential which is dependent on the level of production of by-products and their prices,” it said.

As internal gas consumption is provided by Petronas, PetGas’s exposure to fuel gas price fluctuation is eliminated, it said.

“The revised terms under the GPTA do not introduce new operating risks to PGB; it better defines the obligations of the parties to the GPTA.

“Prospects for the utilities business will depend on the pace of economic recovery. Any variation in gas price will be reflected in the pricing to customers,” it said.

Friday 3 December 2010

Petronas Gas surges on LNG project

Petronas Gas surges on LNG project
Written by Joseph Chin
Thursday, 02 December 2010 09:21

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of PETRONAS GAS BHD [] advanced in early trade on Thursday, Dec 2 after it secured a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification project from its parent, Petroliam Nasional Bhd.

At 9.18am, PetGas was up 22 sen to RM11.36. There were 5,700 shares done.

The FBM KLCI jumped 11.91 points to 1,497.33. Turnover was 95.33 million shares valued at RM102.61 million. There were 304 gainers, 41 losers and 96 stocks unchanged.

PetGas announced on Wednesday the projects would be in Sungai Udang port, Melaka and would include two floating storage units (FSUs) to receive and store LNG; an island jetty and regasification units to regasify LNG; and subsea and onshore pipelines to transport the regasified LNG to the Peninsular Gas Utilisation pipeline network.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/177973-petronas-gas-surges-on-lng-project.html

Sunday 14 November 2010

Petronas Gas

Date announced 27/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 1
FYE 31/03/2011

STOCK PETGAS
C0DE 6033

Price $ 11 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 20.63 Curr. DY 4.55%
LFY Div 50.00 DPO ratio 105%
ROE 12.6% PBT Margin 58.8% PAT Margin 43.9%

Rec. qRev 872645 q-q % chg 9% y-y% chq 11%
Rec qPbt 513213 q-q % chg 85% y-y% chq 45%
Rec. qEps 19.35 q-q % chg 90% y-y% chq 42%
ttm-Eps 53.31 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq 17%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 20.00 Avg. L PE 18.00
Forecast High Pr 13.61 Forecast Low Pr 9.60 Recent Severe Low Pr 9.60
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 65% Downside 35%
One Year Appreciation Potential 5% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 11%

CPE/SPE 1.09 P/NTA 2.59 NTA 4.24 SPE 19.00 Rational Pr 10.13

Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr

Tuesday 11 May 2010

A quick look at Petronas Gas (11.5.2010)

A quick look at Petronas Gas (11.5.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tFknuWgtf7GqSvQDRjS5aig&output=html

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Thursday 24 November 2011

Petronas Gas

Market Watch

Thursday 25 August 2011

RM15bil Gas project to benefit TNB

Thursday August 25, 2011

RM15bil Gas project to benefit TNB

By LEONG HUNG YEE
hungyee@thestar.com.my

Wednesday 30 March 2011

Dividends Track Record of Petronas Gas Berhad

Thursday 24 February 2011

PetGas 3Q net profit up 50.4% to RM400m on higher gas processing revenue

Friday 3 December 2010

Petronas Gas surges on LNG project

Sunday 14 November 2010

Petronas Gas

Tuesday 11 May 2010

A quick look at Petronas Gas (11.5.2010)

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs

Thursday 24 November 2011

Market Watch

Thursday 25 August 2011

Thursday August 25, 2011

RM15bil Gas project to benefit TNB

By LEONG HUNG YEE hungyee@thestar.com.my

Wednesday 30 March 2011

Thursday 24 February 2011

Friday 3 December 2010

Sunday 14 November 2010

Tuesday 11 May 2010

By LEONG HUNG YEE
hungyee@thestar.com.my