Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
Sunday 14 November 2010
Petronas Gas
Date announced 27/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 1
FYE 31/03/2011
STOCK PETGAS
C0DE 6033
Price $ 11 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 20.63 Curr. DY 4.55%
LFY Div 50.00 DPO ratio 105%
ROE 12.6% PBT Margin 58.8% PAT Margin 43.9%
Rec. qRev 872645 q-q % chg 9% y-y% chq 11%
Rec qPbt 513213 q-q % chg 85% y-y% chq 45%
Rec. qEps 19.35 q-q % chg 90% y-y% chq 42%
ttm-Eps 53.31 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq 17%
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 20.00 Avg. L PE 18.00
Forecast High Pr 13.61 Forecast Low Pr 9.60 Recent Severe Low Pr 9.60
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 65% Downside 35%
One Year Appreciation Potential 5% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 11%
CPE/SPE 1.09 P/NTA 2.59 NTA 4.24 SPE 19.00 Rational Pr 10.13
Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.
Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr
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