Buffett (1982): Always maintain strict price disciple; a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments.

While the world of stocks seems to be tearing apart on US subprime woes, what could be better than to indulge in some thought provoking lessons that can help you, as an investor, in staying calm in such situations of panic.  We saw Buffett (the master) talk about his policies for making acquisitions and how managers tend to overestimate themselves. Let us see what the investing genius had to offer in his 1982 letter to shareholders.

In what was probably a bull market, Berkshire Hathaway, the master's investment vehicle faced a peculiar problem. By that time, the company had acquired meaningful stakes in a lot of other companies but not meaningful enough for these companies' earnings to be consolidated with that of Berkshire Hathaway's. This is because accounting conventions then allowed only for dividends to be recorded in the earnings statement of the acquiring company if it acquired a stake of less than 20%. This obviously did not go down well with the master as earnings of Berkshire in the 'accounting sense' depended upon the percentage of earnings that were distributed by these companies as dividends.

"We prefer a concept of 'economic' earnings that includes all undistributed earnings, regardless of ownership percentage. In our view, the value to all owners of the retained earnings of a business enterprise is determined by the effectiveness with which those earnings are used - and not by the size of one's ownership percentage."

As for some examples in the Indian context, companies like M&M and Tata Chemicals, which hold small stakes in many companies should not be valued based on what dividends these companies pay to M&M and Tata Chemicals but instead one should arrive at the fair value of these companies independently and that value should be attributed on a pro-rata basis to all the shareholders, whether minority or majority.

While the master tackled accounting related issues in the first few portions of the 1982 letter, the next few portions were once again devoted to the excesses that take place in the market time and again. This is what he had to say on corporate acquisitions and price discipline.

"As we look at the major acquisitions that others made during 1982, our reaction is not envy, but relief that we were non-participants. For in many of these acquisitions, managerial intellect wilted in competition with managerial adrenaline. The thrill of the chase blinded the pursuers to the consequences of the catch. Pascal's observation seems apt: 'It has struck me that all men's misfortunes spring from the single cause that they are unable to stay quietly in one room.'"

He further goes on to state, "The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments."

The above comments once again bring to the fore a strict discipline that the master employs when it comes to paying an appropriate price. In fact, as much as his success is built on finding some very good picks like Coca Cola and Gillette, he has never had to sustain huge losses on any of his investment. The math is simple, if you lose say 50% on an investment, to make good these losses, one will have to unearth a stock that will have to rise at least 100% and that too in quick time. A very difficult task indeed! No wonder the master pays so much attention to maintaining a strict price discipline.

http://www.equitymaster.com/detail.asp?date=8/2/2007&story=5

Companies with different EPS GR bought at different prices

Conclusion:

1. Best buy:
High EPS GR companies
Bought at a discount
Held for long haul

2. Good buy:
High EPS GR companies
Bought at a fair price
Held for long haul

3. Good buy:
Low EPS GR companies
Bought at a discount
Held for short haul

5. Do not buy
High EPS GR companies
Bought at high price
Avoid meantime
Be patient

6. Do not buy
Low EPS GR companies
Bought at high price
Avoid



The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=thtZJOZYT-iKNP3VPKg9jig&output=html


Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment
A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

A Young Analyst on Wall Street, Benjamin Graham

An Enterprising Young Analyst on Wall Street by the name of Benjamin Graham

In the early 1930s an enterprising young analyst on Wall Street by the name of Benjamin Graham noticed that the vast majority of hotshot stock pickers on Wall Street didn’t care at all about the long-term economics of the businesses that they are busy buying a selling. All they cared about was whether the stock prices, over the short run, were going up or down.

Graham also noticed that these hot stock pickers, while caught up in their speculative frenzy, would sometimes drive up the stock prices to ridiculous levels in relation to the long-term economic realities of the underlying businesses. He also realized that these same hotshots would sometimes send stock prices spiraling to insane lows that similarly ignored the businesses’ long term prospects. It was in these insane lows that Graham saw a fantastic opportunity to make money.

Graham reasoned that if he bought these “oversold businesses” at prices below their long-term intrinsic value, eventually the market would acknowledge its mistake and revalue them upward. Once they were revalued upward, he could sell them at a profit. This is the basis for what we know today as value investing. Graham was the father of it.

What we have to realize, however, is that Graham really didn’t care about what kind of business he was buying. In his world every business had a price at which it was a bargain. When he started practicing value investing back in the 1930s, he was focused on finding companies trading at less than half of what they held in cash. He called it “buying a dollar for 50 cents.” He had other standards as well, such as never paying more than 10 times a company’s earnings and selling the stock if it was up 50%. If it didn’t go up within 2 years, he would sell it anyway.

Yes, his perspective was a bit longer than that of the Wall Street speculators, but in truth he had zero interest in where the company would be in ten years.

Also read:
Warren seeks Companies with Durable Competitive Advantage
Young Warren Buffett learned under Graham
A Young Analyst on Wall Street, Benjamin Graham
Knowing the Stock Market and its Major Players
The Time To Sell
The Right Time To Buy A Fantastic Business
Warren Buffett’s Concept of Equity Bond in action....
Warren Buffett's concept of Equity Bond

Investment merit at a given PRICE but not at another

Investment Policies (Based on Benjamin Graham)

PRICE: is frequently an essential element, so that a stock (and even a bond) may have investment merit at one price level but not at another.

______________________________________

Having selected the company to invest based on various parameters, the next consideration will be the price we are willing to pay for owning part of its business.

Price is always an important consideration in investing. At a certain price, the company can be acquired at a bargain, at a fair price or at a high price. Each scenario will impact on our investment returns.

We should ALWAYS buy a good quality company at a BARGAIN PRICE (margin of safety). This allows us to lock in our potential gains at the time of buying at a favourable reward/risk ratio. This maybe when the upside gain: downside loss is at least 3:1.

There maybe FEW exceptional occasions when we may be willing to pay a FAIR PRICE for a good quality company. This is often the case when a good quality company is fancied by many investors and is often quoted in normal time at a high price.

However, we should NEVER (NEVER, NEVER) buy a good quality company at HIGH PRICE, whatever its earnings and growth prospects maybe. To do so will not only diminishes our potential investment returns, but may even results in a loss of our capital due to the unfavourable reward/risk ratio.

Don't time the market, it is difficult. However, there will be time when the market is on sale and the prices of stocks are at a bargain and there will be time when the market is exuberant and the prices of stocks are high or very high.

The market will always be there and we should choose when to buy and when to sell. We should only buy a stock when the PRICE IS RIGHT FOR US and sell a stock when the PRICE IS RIGHT FOR US.


(What is market timing? Timing is a term that refers to investing by buying everything or selling everything on the basis of the (faulty) assumption that one can predict the market's next move. Attempts to time are common, but academicians and practitioners have concluded that success happens through luck only on occasions that are quickly reversed and very costly.)