The Stock Expert Who's Saying "Buy"
By Selena Maranjian
June 18, 2009
Jeremy Siegel, business professor at the Wharton Business School, has given us investors a lot to learn from. He's the author, for example, of Stocks for the Long Run, and also of The Future for Investors. He's also shown us how to find great stocks and demonstrated the power of dividends.
So when he speaks, we should at least listen, right? Well, he was recently interviewed on public radio, and he advocated investing in stocks for the long haul. "In March,” he said, “we were down more than 50%. And I looked all the way back [over the] last hundred years. Once you're down 50%, your prospects are very good." That's from a guy who has spent a big part of his life studying the stock market's performance over the past 200 years.
Indeed, many well-known stocks are down 50% or more over the past 12 months:
Company
52-Week Return
Alcoa (NYSE: AA)
(72%)
MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR)
(71%)
Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO)
(60%)
Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK)
(66%)
Mosaic (NYSE: MOS)
(71%)
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)
(55%)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX)
(58%)
Source: Yahoo! Finance.
One objection I have to Siegel's argument, though, is that it depends entirely on past experience projecting into the future. Think back 100 years to 1909. I know there's much to be learned from the past, but I still worry that we sometimes draw too many parallels. After all, the world was very different then. Our workforce looked different. Our industries were different. Global trade patterns were very different. Business and securities regulation was very different.
He's probably right, though
Nevertheless, I'm not betting against him. Previous bear markets have happened for a variety of different reasons, yet they've all been followed by recoveries. Sure, there's a chance that this time will be the exception. But those who've believed that in the past have gotten burned every time.
As I look at my portfolio, many of my stocks are also down substantially, and I certainly think they're more likely to recover than they are to lose more value over the long run. That's not to say that those share prices won't drop tomorrow, or even over the next year. But over the coming years, I believe these current prices will look like a bargain -- and anyone buying at current levels will be glad they did.
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2009/06/18/the-stock-expert-whos-saying-buy.aspx
Learn more:
The Best Opportunity in 35 Years
An Opportunity to Jump On
The Next Incredible Buying Opportunity
How to find great stocks
The power of dividends.
Showing posts with label buy and hope. Show all posts
Showing posts with label buy and hope. Show all posts
Friday 19 June 2009
Long-Term Buy and Hold Only Works in Bull Markets
Long-Term Buy and Hold Only Works in Bull Markets
By Jennifer Schonberger
June 17, 2009
Long-term buy and hold only works if you can predict a long-term bull market -- or so says Bernie Schaeffer, chairman and founder of Schaeffer's Investment Research.
Since stocks of all walks have been torpedoed in the wake of the financial crisis, pundits are calling into question the viability of the decades-old strategy. Long gone may be the times our grandparents and parents were able to invest in stocks for 10-plus years without rebalancing or cleaning their portfolios.
As part of The Motley Fool's series that seeks to answer the question, "Is long-term buy and hold dead?" Schaeffer weighed in. What follows is an edited transcript of our interview.
Jennifer Schonberger: Do you think long-term buy and hold is dead?
Bernie Schaeffer: I don't see it as a viable strategy, unless you have a way of predicting long-term bull markets.
In March 2000, the S&P peaked at more than 15 times its August 1982 lows. On the other hand, anyone who invested in the S&P from the middle of 1997 to date is very likely losing money. So if you believe we're about to embark upon a 1982-to-2000 run, "buy and hold" will work. In a much more challenging environment, such as the one we've experienced over the past dozen years, it will not work.
The lesson here is never to confuse genius with a bull market, and that powerful bull markets make almost any strategy that involves buying stocks look "smart." What's "dead" is the immutable belief that dominated the investment world as recently as a few years ago -- that buying stocks for the "long term" is always a good deal and the idea that a 100% portfolio exposure to stocks makes good sense.
Schonberger: Do major gyrations in stalwart stocks like General Electric (NYSE: GE) call into question the strategy? Are the days of the blue chip over?
Schaeffer: Let's not forget that GE turned out to be a case of financial engineering in blue-chip clothing. There's also the recent transformation of American International Group (NYSE: AIG) and General Motors -- two stalwarts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 "blue chip" stocks [that turned] into penny stocks. Before that, there was Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and before that, WorldCom and Enron.
I think the days that a company can remain dominant in the markets for decades at a time are over. Life simply moves too fast these days. There are no "permanent blue chips." Even Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), while still dominant in retailing, has been dead money for stock investors for a decade.
Schonberger: What do you say to investors who have implemented the long-term buy and hold strategy for years and have seen their holdings simply evaporate in the wake of the market meltdown? And it could be years before any of it comes back ... (Good question)
Schaeffer: Always keep a significant portion of your holdings in cash or in bonds -- at least 30%. Stocks are risky investments, even over the "long term." Investors should never be 100% invested in the stock market. ... Asset allocation is critical. There should always be a mixture of stocks, Treasury bonds, and cash. (Nothing new - safety first)
Schonberger: What about diversification?
Schaeffer: Diversification is overrated and gives investors a false sense of security. In bad times, stocks all move down together and in good times you don't need to be very diversified. One of the biggest jokes on investors over the years has been "diversifying" into many stock mutual funds only to find these funds basically own the same stocks.
Schonberger: Should investors do more active managing now than in the past? For example, if you are going to follow the long-term buy and hold strategy, should you have an exit strategy for the short term in case the bet goes south, maybe fundamentals deteriorate?
Schaeffer: Active managing is only worthwhile if you've got the skills to do this. ... [You should only have an exit strategy] if you're going to figure out ahead of the crowd if fundamentals are deteriorating. If you're the last to figure this out, you'll be selling at the bottom.
Schonberger: How long are we talking about here? How long is the "long" in long-term buy and hold?
Schaeffer: Warren Buffett says "forever," and shares in his company [Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B)] dropped by almost 60% from late 2007 to early 2009.
Schonberger: Is index investing still a viable strategy? How has it evolved? There are indexes for everything today -- not just the S&P and the Dow.
Schaeffer: The pitfalls of "buy and hold" represent exactly the pitfalls of index investing, though index investing does have the advantage of keeping expenses such as transaction costs low.
Schonberger: Are we entering an era where if you buy and hold stocks for the next decade, you earn subpar returns? Is it possible that the upcoming decade mirrors the rather lackluster stock market returns of the 1970s, where you saw a couple runs, but on the whole it wasn't so great?
Schaeffer: This is certainly possible. Returning to the huge returns of 1982 to 2000 is also possible. The only way to play these possibilities is to maintain enough exposure to cash and bonds to sufficiently protect yourself against weak periods in the market, while having enough equity exposure to participate in the big rallies.
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2009/06/17/long-term-buy-and-hold-only-works-in-bull-markets.aspx
More from our experts on the future of buy-and-hold investing:
So Is Buy and Hold Dead or What?
Long-Term Investing Doesn't Work
How to Invest Using the "New" Buy and Hold
Long-Term Buy and Hold May Not Be the Smartest Investing Strategy
If Buy and Hold Ever Lived, It's Dead Now
Bogle on Buy and Hold and the "Long" of Long-Term Investing
Comment: Buy and Hold is only for selected stocks bought at a bargain price.
By Jennifer Schonberger
June 17, 2009
Long-term buy and hold only works if you can predict a long-term bull market -- or so says Bernie Schaeffer, chairman and founder of Schaeffer's Investment Research.
Since stocks of all walks have been torpedoed in the wake of the financial crisis, pundits are calling into question the viability of the decades-old strategy. Long gone may be the times our grandparents and parents were able to invest in stocks for 10-plus years without rebalancing or cleaning their portfolios.
As part of The Motley Fool's series that seeks to answer the question, "Is long-term buy and hold dead?" Schaeffer weighed in. What follows is an edited transcript of our interview.
Jennifer Schonberger: Do you think long-term buy and hold is dead?
Bernie Schaeffer: I don't see it as a viable strategy, unless you have a way of predicting long-term bull markets.
In March 2000, the S&P peaked at more than 15 times its August 1982 lows. On the other hand, anyone who invested in the S&P from the middle of 1997 to date is very likely losing money. So if you believe we're about to embark upon a 1982-to-2000 run, "buy and hold" will work. In a much more challenging environment, such as the one we've experienced over the past dozen years, it will not work.
The lesson here is never to confuse genius with a bull market, and that powerful bull markets make almost any strategy that involves buying stocks look "smart." What's "dead" is the immutable belief that dominated the investment world as recently as a few years ago -- that buying stocks for the "long term" is always a good deal and the idea that a 100% portfolio exposure to stocks makes good sense.
Schonberger: Do major gyrations in stalwart stocks like General Electric (NYSE: GE) call into question the strategy? Are the days of the blue chip over?
Schaeffer: Let's not forget that GE turned out to be a case of financial engineering in blue-chip clothing. There's also the recent transformation of American International Group (NYSE: AIG) and General Motors -- two stalwarts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 "blue chip" stocks [that turned] into penny stocks. Before that, there was Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and before that, WorldCom and Enron.
I think the days that a company can remain dominant in the markets for decades at a time are over. Life simply moves too fast these days. There are no "permanent blue chips." Even Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), while still dominant in retailing, has been dead money for stock investors for a decade.
Schonberger: What do you say to investors who have implemented the long-term buy and hold strategy for years and have seen their holdings simply evaporate in the wake of the market meltdown? And it could be years before any of it comes back ... (Good question)
Schaeffer: Always keep a significant portion of your holdings in cash or in bonds -- at least 30%. Stocks are risky investments, even over the "long term." Investors should never be 100% invested in the stock market. ... Asset allocation is critical. There should always be a mixture of stocks, Treasury bonds, and cash. (Nothing new - safety first)
Schonberger: What about diversification?
Schaeffer: Diversification is overrated and gives investors a false sense of security. In bad times, stocks all move down together and in good times you don't need to be very diversified. One of the biggest jokes on investors over the years has been "diversifying" into many stock mutual funds only to find these funds basically own the same stocks.
Schonberger: Should investors do more active managing now than in the past? For example, if you are going to follow the long-term buy and hold strategy, should you have an exit strategy for the short term in case the bet goes south, maybe fundamentals deteriorate?
Schaeffer: Active managing is only worthwhile if you've got the skills to do this. ... [You should only have an exit strategy] if you're going to figure out ahead of the crowd if fundamentals are deteriorating. If you're the last to figure this out, you'll be selling at the bottom.
Schonberger: How long are we talking about here? How long is the "long" in long-term buy and hold?
Schaeffer: Warren Buffett says "forever," and shares in his company [Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B)] dropped by almost 60% from late 2007 to early 2009.
Schonberger: Is index investing still a viable strategy? How has it evolved? There are indexes for everything today -- not just the S&P and the Dow.
Schaeffer: The pitfalls of "buy and hold" represent exactly the pitfalls of index investing, though index investing does have the advantage of keeping expenses such as transaction costs low.
Schonberger: Are we entering an era where if you buy and hold stocks for the next decade, you earn subpar returns? Is it possible that the upcoming decade mirrors the rather lackluster stock market returns of the 1970s, where you saw a couple runs, but on the whole it wasn't so great?
Schaeffer: This is certainly possible. Returning to the huge returns of 1982 to 2000 is also possible. The only way to play these possibilities is to maintain enough exposure to cash and bonds to sufficiently protect yourself against weak periods in the market, while having enough equity exposure to participate in the big rallies.
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2009/06/17/long-term-buy-and-hold-only-works-in-bull-markets.aspx
More from our experts on the future of buy-and-hold investing:
So Is Buy and Hold Dead or What?
Long-Term Investing Doesn't Work
How to Invest Using the "New" Buy and Hold
Long-Term Buy and Hold May Not Be the Smartest Investing Strategy
If Buy and Hold Ever Lived, It's Dead Now
Bogle on Buy and Hold and the "Long" of Long-Term Investing
Comment: Buy and Hold is only for selected stocks bought at a bargain price.
Thursday 18 June 2009
Only 37 stocks in KLSE main board are suitable for long term portfolio
The latest Stock Performance Guide (2009 March Edition) was available recently. I screened for those counters based on certain criterias for possible buy and hold for the long term. Of the 603 counters in the Main Board, only 37 counters are deemed worth further research. 7 of these 37 are small-cap or mid-cap stocks.
The Bursa Malaysia is truly a dangerous play ground for the uninformed. Only a small percentage (37/603 = 6%) are possible candidates for buy and hold for the long term. Also these should be bought when they are not overpriced.
The investors in the market vary from the financial professionals to those without any knowledge on investing. Interestingly, there are some professionals who are losers in the market big time and yet there are some of these novice investors who are surprising winners. These could be accounted for by probabilities and also by certain other reasons. In general, those who are financially knowledgeable are expected and probably do better than those who are less financially knowledgeable as a group.
It behoves the investor who wishes to build a portfolio, using the buy, hold and selective selling strategy, to pick the appropriate stocks at a good bargain price.
It should be an interesting exercise to dissect why so many counters in the Bursa are not suitable for buy and hold for the long term.
The Bursa Malaysia is truly a dangerous play ground for the uninformed. Only a small percentage (37/603 = 6%) are possible candidates for buy and hold for the long term. Also these should be bought when they are not overpriced.
The investors in the market vary from the financial professionals to those without any knowledge on investing. Interestingly, there are some professionals who are losers in the market big time and yet there are some of these novice investors who are surprising winners. These could be accounted for by probabilities and also by certain other reasons. In general, those who are financially knowledgeable are expected and probably do better than those who are less financially knowledgeable as a group.
It behoves the investor who wishes to build a portfolio, using the buy, hold and selective selling strategy, to pick the appropriate stocks at a good bargain price.
It should be an interesting exercise to dissect why so many counters in the Bursa are not suitable for buy and hold for the long term.
Thursday 28 May 2009
Observing Long-Term Investing
Observing Long-Term Investing
Study the 2 lists of the top 30 shareholders of a particular company below.
Excluding the institutions, there are 10 individual investors who invested in this company from the year 2002 to 2008. These are certainly long-term investors.
The share price of this compay ranged 3.85 to 8.35 in 2002.
In 2008, the price ranged from 10.50 to 13.00.
It is presently priced at 10.70.
The dividend per share for the recent 6 years were 5.8c (2002), 12.8c (2003), 56c (2004), 63.2c (2005), 63.5c (2006), 63.5c (2007), giving a total of 264.8c. The DY the last 5 years ranged from 10.1% to 6.7% varying with the share price.
What lessons can we derive from the investing behaviours of these long-term "buy and hold" investors? Perhaps, you may spot my name within this list. hahaha!!
http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/subweb.nsf/7f04516f8098680348256c6f0017a6bf/6a8c0c56bb45fd2c48256d02000ff5d0/$FILE/DLady-AnnualReport%202002%20(950KB).pdf
Dutch Lady Annual Report 2002
30 Largest Shareholders Page 45
1. Frint Beheer IV BV* 32,074,800 50.12
2. Amanah Raya Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd* 16,008,000 25.01 %
- Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera
3. RHB Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd 540,000 0.84 %
- Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A.
4. Yong Siew Lee 270,000 0.42 %
5. Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Guru-Guru 220,000 0.34%
6. Yeo Khee Bee 215,000 0.34 %
7. Employees Provident Fund Board 201,000 0.31%
8. Menteri Kewangan Malaysia Section 29 (SICDA) 189,800 0.30 %
9. Ng Lam Shen 160,000 0.25 %
10. Quek Guat Kwee 160,000 0.25 %
11. Amanah Raya Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 157,000 0.25 %
-Dana Johor
12. Universiti Malaya 144,000 0.23 %
13. Amanah Raya Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 128,000 0.20 %
-Amanah Saham Johor
14. Lee Sim Kuen 120,000 0.19 %
15. Tong Yoke Kim Sdn Bhd 120,000 0.19 %
16. Foo Mee Lee 117,404 0.18 %
17. Wong So-Ch’I 111,000 0.17 %
18. Soon Ah Khun @ Soon Lian Huat 110,000 0.17 %
19. Wong So Haur 109,000 0.17 %
20. Lim Teh Realty Sdn Bhd 90,000 0.14 %
21. Foo Loke Weng 80,804 0.13 %
22. HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd 80,000 0.13 %
- Pictet and Cie for Ace Fund Sicav (Emerging Market)
23. Mayban Nominess (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 75,000 0.12 %
- for Goh Sin Bong
24. Lim Pin Kong 75,000 0.12 %
25. Neoh Soon Leong 72,000 0.11 %
26. See Cheng Siang 72,000 0.11 %
27. Leong Lai Meng 60,000 0.09 %
28. Looi Chin Seng 60,000 0.09 %
29. HSBC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 60,000 0.09 %
- for Goh Hiong Eng
30. Sak Mok @ Sak Swee Len 58,000 0.09%
http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/subweb.nsf/7f04516f8098680348256c6f0017a6bf/5f300a009db8aabf482575a70014e6ae/$FILE/DLADY-AnnualReport2008%20(1MB).pdf
Dutch Lady Annual Report 2008
30 Largest Shareholders Page 49
1. Frint Beheer IV BV* 32,074,800 50.12%
2. Amanah Raya Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 12,500,000 19.53%
- Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera
3. Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) 2,109,200 3.3%
4. Permodalan Nasional Berhad 1,843,500 2.88%
5. Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 837,300 1.31%
- Pledged Securities Account for Aun Huat & Brothers
Sdn Bhd (E-IMO/BCM)
6. Aun Huat & Brothers Sdn Bhd 587,100 0.92%
7. Cartaban Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd 540,000 0.84%
- Exempt An For Bank Sarasin-Rabo (Asia) Limited (AC Client Frgn)
8. Yong Siew Lee 430,000 0.67%
9. Yeo Khee Bee 391,300 0.61%
10. Quek Guat Kwee 162,000 0.25%
11. Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Guru-Guru 156,300 0.24%
12. SBB Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 144,000 0.23%
- Universiti Malaya (CAFM)
13. Citigroup Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd 125,700 0.20%
- CBNY For DFA Emerging Markets Small Cap Series
14. Lee Sim Kuen 120,000 0.19%
15. Wong So-Ch’i 111,000 0.17%
16. Tong Yoke Kim Sdn Bhd 110,000 0.17%
17. Wong So Haur 109,000 0.17%
18. Chow Kok Meng 99,900 0.16%
19. Lim Teh Realty Sdn Berhad 90,000 0.14%
20. Foo Yoke Keong Adrian 80,000 0.13%
21. Cartaban Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 80,000 0.13%
- Exempt An For Kam Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd
22. Tan Pak Nang 74,000 0.12%
23. Mayban Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 74,000 0.12%
- Affin Fund Management Berhad For CIMB Aviva Assurance
Berhad (270185)
24. Ng Lam Shen 71,300 0.11%
25. Tan Kim Onm 66,000 0.10%
26. Labuan Reinsurance (L) Ltd 62,700 0.10%
27. HSBC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 60,000 0.09%
- Pledged Securities Account for Goh Hiong Eng
28. Sak Moy @ Sak Swee Len 58,000 0.09%
29. Theo Chin Lian 56,000 0.09%
30. Chua Sim Hong 55,900 0.09%
Total: 53,280,000 83.27%
Study the 2 lists of the top 30 shareholders of a particular company below.
Excluding the institutions, there are 10 individual investors who invested in this company from the year 2002 to 2008. These are certainly long-term investors.
The share price of this compay ranged 3.85 to 8.35 in 2002.
In 2008, the price ranged from 10.50 to 13.00.
It is presently priced at 10.70.
The dividend per share for the recent 6 years were 5.8c (2002), 12.8c (2003), 56c (2004), 63.2c (2005), 63.5c (2006), 63.5c (2007), giving a total of 264.8c. The DY the last 5 years ranged from 10.1% to 6.7% varying with the share price.
What lessons can we derive from the investing behaviours of these long-term "buy and hold" investors? Perhaps, you may spot my name within this list. hahaha!!
http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/subweb.nsf/7f04516f8098680348256c6f0017a6bf/6a8c0c56bb45fd2c48256d02000ff5d0/$FILE/DLady-AnnualReport%202002%20(950KB).pdf
Dutch Lady Annual Report 2002
30 Largest Shareholders Page 45
1. Frint Beheer IV BV* 32,074,800 50.12
2. Amanah Raya Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd* 16,008,000 25.01 %
- Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera
3. RHB Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd 540,000 0.84 %
- Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A.
4. Yong Siew Lee 270,000 0.42 %
5. Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Guru-Guru 220,000 0.34%
6. Yeo Khee Bee 215,000 0.34 %
7. Employees Provident Fund Board 201,000 0.31%
8. Menteri Kewangan Malaysia Section 29 (SICDA) 189,800 0.30 %
9. Ng Lam Shen 160,000 0.25 %
10. Quek Guat Kwee 160,000 0.25 %
11. Amanah Raya Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 157,000 0.25 %
-Dana Johor
12. Universiti Malaya 144,000 0.23 %
13. Amanah Raya Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 128,000 0.20 %
-Amanah Saham Johor
14. Lee Sim Kuen 120,000 0.19 %
15. Tong Yoke Kim Sdn Bhd 120,000 0.19 %
16. Foo Mee Lee 117,404 0.18 %
17. Wong So-Ch’I 111,000 0.17 %
18. Soon Ah Khun @ Soon Lian Huat 110,000 0.17 %
19. Wong So Haur 109,000 0.17 %
20. Lim Teh Realty Sdn Bhd 90,000 0.14 %
21. Foo Loke Weng 80,804 0.13 %
22. HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd 80,000 0.13 %
- Pictet and Cie for Ace Fund Sicav (Emerging Market)
23. Mayban Nominess (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 75,000 0.12 %
- for Goh Sin Bong
24. Lim Pin Kong 75,000 0.12 %
25. Neoh Soon Leong 72,000 0.11 %
26. See Cheng Siang 72,000 0.11 %
27. Leong Lai Meng 60,000 0.09 %
28. Looi Chin Seng 60,000 0.09 %
29. HSBC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 60,000 0.09 %
- for Goh Hiong Eng
30. Sak Mok @ Sak Swee Len 58,000 0.09%
http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/subweb.nsf/7f04516f8098680348256c6f0017a6bf/5f300a009db8aabf482575a70014e6ae/$FILE/DLADY-AnnualReport2008%20(1MB).pdf
Dutch Lady Annual Report 2008
30 Largest Shareholders Page 49
1. Frint Beheer IV BV* 32,074,800 50.12%
2. Amanah Raya Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 12,500,000 19.53%
- Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera
3. Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) 2,109,200 3.3%
4. Permodalan Nasional Berhad 1,843,500 2.88%
5. Public Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 837,300 1.31%
- Pledged Securities Account for Aun Huat & Brothers
Sdn Bhd (E-IMO/BCM)
6. Aun Huat & Brothers Sdn Bhd 587,100 0.92%
7. Cartaban Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd 540,000 0.84%
- Exempt An For Bank Sarasin-Rabo (Asia) Limited (AC Client Frgn)
8. Yong Siew Lee 430,000 0.67%
9. Yeo Khee Bee 391,300 0.61%
10. Quek Guat Kwee 162,000 0.25%
11. Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Guru-Guru 156,300 0.24%
12. SBB Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 144,000 0.23%
- Universiti Malaya (CAFM)
13. Citigroup Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd 125,700 0.20%
- CBNY For DFA Emerging Markets Small Cap Series
14. Lee Sim Kuen 120,000 0.19%
15. Wong So-Ch’i 111,000 0.17%
16. Tong Yoke Kim Sdn Bhd 110,000 0.17%
17. Wong So Haur 109,000 0.17%
18. Chow Kok Meng 99,900 0.16%
19. Lim Teh Realty Sdn Berhad 90,000 0.14%
20. Foo Yoke Keong Adrian 80,000 0.13%
21. Cartaban Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 80,000 0.13%
- Exempt An For Kam Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd
22. Tan Pak Nang 74,000 0.12%
23. Mayban Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 74,000 0.12%
- Affin Fund Management Berhad For CIMB Aviva Assurance
Berhad (270185)
24. Ng Lam Shen 71,300 0.11%
25. Tan Kim Onm 66,000 0.10%
26. Labuan Reinsurance (L) Ltd 62,700 0.10%
27. HSBC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 60,000 0.09%
- Pledged Securities Account for Goh Hiong Eng
28. Sak Moy @ Sak Swee Len 58,000 0.09%
29. Theo Chin Lian 56,000 0.09%
30. Chua Sim Hong 55,900 0.09%
Total: 53,280,000 83.27%
Tuesday 14 April 2009
Buffett queried on 'buy and hold' on CNBC
"Buy and hold" strategy. Is this strategy dead?
In a recent CNBC interview, Warren Buffett was asked by a sender of email regarding buy and hold strategy. His reply was a short one. This strategy works for certain selected stocks. He added other strategies can be profitable for some too.
My comments:
Stock selection is of course very important. This can be achieved through applying the right investing knowledge, diligent study of the company and hard work.
Over the short-term, you will probably be right (positive returns) 50% of the time. However, over the long-term, you are more likely to be right most of the time.
Be sure to ride the winners, add more to the winners for big gains. If one has made a mistake, cut the losers early to keep the losses small.
In my experience, long term buy and hold investing has been rewarding. It has been safe (safety of principal) and has also generated good return for the given reward/risk ratio.
Always buy the stock at a bargain (margin of safety). This minimises the downside risk and provides potentially a higher return.
In a recent CNBC interview, Warren Buffett was asked by a sender of email regarding buy and hold strategy. His reply was a short one. This strategy works for certain selected stocks. He added other strategies can be profitable for some too.
My comments:
Stock selection is of course very important. This can be achieved through applying the right investing knowledge, diligent study of the company and hard work.
Over the short-term, you will probably be right (positive returns) 50% of the time. However, over the long-term, you are more likely to be right most of the time.
Be sure to ride the winners, add more to the winners for big gains. If one has made a mistake, cut the losers early to keep the losses small.
In my experience, long term buy and hold investing has been rewarding. It has been safe (safety of principal) and has also generated good return for the given reward/risk ratio.
Always buy the stock at a bargain (margin of safety). This minimises the downside risk and provides potentially a higher return.
The Worst Move You Could Make Now
The Worst Move You Could Make Now
By Dan Caplinger April 13, 2009 Comments (0)
Tough times have forced many people to take desperate measures. Unfortunately, some of the changes people are making to their portfolios won't do anything but cause them more heartbreak in the long run.
With many pundits proclaiming the death of buy-and-hold investing, day trading and other short-term investing strategies are on the rise. Having become immensely popular during the tech boom of the late 1990s, day trading has sent many investors to the poorhouse whenever the stocks that traders use stop performing well.
Tired of losing
Given the complete collapse in confidence in the financial system, it's no surprise that investors are taking matters into their own hands. When stocks move smoothly up over time, slow and steady gains generally make most investors happy. But when you no longer believe that simply dumping money into an index fund will earn you profits over time, you may well be at a loss to figure out what to do.
That's why day trading can be so attractive. If you pick the right stocks -- especially low-priced beaten-down shares like Citigroup (NYSE: C), General Electric (NYSE: GE), and Ford (NYSE: F) -- you can see plenty of potential benefits: With these companies in the news all the time, their prices move radically over short periods.
Low share prices let you pick up more shares for your money, accentuating the feeling that you're accomplishing something with your actions.
In an economy where many have lost their jobs, grabbing a quick profit from a day trade can be your only source of income.
But even if Wall Street's shenanigans have convinced you that the overall stock market is rigged, trying to beat the Street at its own game isn't the answer. Fortunately, there's a better way.
What's the better way?
Long-term investing strategies give you simple rules to follow in good times and bad. But to use them correctly, you have to be willing not to panic during bear markets, and add money even when your gut tells you it's the worst move you could make.
That's a big problem for many people. It's hard to invest when you know you could endure losses for months or even years at a time. But rather than going all the way to the other extreme by day trading, why not instead look for stocks that can thrive in today's market environment?
With thousands of stocks to choose from, you can be virtually assured of finding some with promising prospects. More importantly, though, when you understand why you own shares of a company, it's easier to be patient and wait for a great business model to prove itself.
For instance, consider e-commerce giant Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN). When its shares fell to single digits during the tech bust, day traders lost fortunes. But those who believed that the company would eventually become the dominant force in Internet retail didn't settle for nicking a penny or two off share gains -- they saw their fortunes rise more than 13-fold in the ensuing years.
Take a stand
Which stocks belong in your portfolio? It depends on your financial situation, risk tolerance, and comfort level with investing, as well as your take on what the future likely holds.
If you're convinced the recession is just getting started, then a dividend-paying recession-proof consumer stock like Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) looks awfully attractive. On the other hand, if you're comfortable taking risks and see the economy booming back in short order, then beaten-down oil and gas stocks like Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) or ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) could recover in a hurry.
The key, though, is to take ownership of your investments. Rather than day trading, where all the odds are stacked against you, the best way to beat Wall Street at its own game is to learn how to play it better. By learning how to find market-crushing stocks, you'll avoid the mistakes that will inevitably bring day traders even more losses.
For more on making the most from your investments, read about:
The greatest company in the history of the world.
Wall Street's 10 favorite stocks.
Warren Buffett's biggest mistake.
Fool contributor Dan Caplinger makes plenty of mistakes, but does his best to avoid the big ones. He owns shares of Chesapeake Energy and General Electric. Kimberly-Clark is a Motley Fool Income Investor selection. Chesapeake Energy is a Motley Fool Inside Value pick.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/04/13/the-worst-move-you-could-make-now.aspx
By Dan Caplinger April 13, 2009 Comments (0)
Tough times have forced many people to take desperate measures. Unfortunately, some of the changes people are making to their portfolios won't do anything but cause them more heartbreak in the long run.
With many pundits proclaiming the death of buy-and-hold investing, day trading and other short-term investing strategies are on the rise. Having become immensely popular during the tech boom of the late 1990s, day trading has sent many investors to the poorhouse whenever the stocks that traders use stop performing well.
Tired of losing
Given the complete collapse in confidence in the financial system, it's no surprise that investors are taking matters into their own hands. When stocks move smoothly up over time, slow and steady gains generally make most investors happy. But when you no longer believe that simply dumping money into an index fund will earn you profits over time, you may well be at a loss to figure out what to do.
That's why day trading can be so attractive. If you pick the right stocks -- especially low-priced beaten-down shares like Citigroup (NYSE: C), General Electric (NYSE: GE), and Ford (NYSE: F) -- you can see plenty of potential benefits: With these companies in the news all the time, their prices move radically over short periods.
Low share prices let you pick up more shares for your money, accentuating the feeling that you're accomplishing something with your actions.
In an economy where many have lost their jobs, grabbing a quick profit from a day trade can be your only source of income.
But even if Wall Street's shenanigans have convinced you that the overall stock market is rigged, trying to beat the Street at its own game isn't the answer. Fortunately, there's a better way.
What's the better way?
Long-term investing strategies give you simple rules to follow in good times and bad. But to use them correctly, you have to be willing not to panic during bear markets, and add money even when your gut tells you it's the worst move you could make.
That's a big problem for many people. It's hard to invest when you know you could endure losses for months or even years at a time. But rather than going all the way to the other extreme by day trading, why not instead look for stocks that can thrive in today's market environment?
With thousands of stocks to choose from, you can be virtually assured of finding some with promising prospects. More importantly, though, when you understand why you own shares of a company, it's easier to be patient and wait for a great business model to prove itself.
For instance, consider e-commerce giant Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN). When its shares fell to single digits during the tech bust, day traders lost fortunes. But those who believed that the company would eventually become the dominant force in Internet retail didn't settle for nicking a penny or two off share gains -- they saw their fortunes rise more than 13-fold in the ensuing years.
Take a stand
Which stocks belong in your portfolio? It depends on your financial situation, risk tolerance, and comfort level with investing, as well as your take on what the future likely holds.
If you're convinced the recession is just getting started, then a dividend-paying recession-proof consumer stock like Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) looks awfully attractive. On the other hand, if you're comfortable taking risks and see the economy booming back in short order, then beaten-down oil and gas stocks like Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) or ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) could recover in a hurry.
The key, though, is to take ownership of your investments. Rather than day trading, where all the odds are stacked against you, the best way to beat Wall Street at its own game is to learn how to play it better. By learning how to find market-crushing stocks, you'll avoid the mistakes that will inevitably bring day traders even more losses.
For more on making the most from your investments, read about:
The greatest company in the history of the world.
Wall Street's 10 favorite stocks.
Warren Buffett's biggest mistake.
Fool contributor Dan Caplinger makes plenty of mistakes, but does his best to avoid the big ones. He owns shares of Chesapeake Energy and General Electric. Kimberly-Clark is a Motley Fool Income Investor selection. Chesapeake Energy is a Motley Fool Inside Value pick.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/04/13/the-worst-move-you-could-make-now.aspx
Thursday 5 March 2009
**Don't 'Buy and Hope:' How to Survive Until the Next Bull Market
Don't 'Buy and Hope:' How to Survive Until the Next Bull Market
Posted Feb 27, 2009 12:09pm EST
by Aaron Task in Investing
With the market heading lower again and the Dow hitting yet another new 11-year low intraday Friday, it's hard to believe stocks will ever be a good investment.
But "there's a bull market in our future," says John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors.
That's the good news.
The bad news is Mauldin, who selects active fund managers for his high net worth clients, says any 1990's-style bull market that rewards passive index funds and "buy and hold" investors is unlikely to arrive before for another five-to-six years.
In the interim, the investor and author of the Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter says investors should focus on:
Staying conservative and preserve capital for the "great opportunities" that will emerge when the dust settles.
Be active with your portfolio and only buy stocks if you're both a good stock picker and an astute trader.
Avoid index funds: "Buy and hold was always a bad idea," he says.
Own some gold as a hedge: But he is not a gold bug or major dollar bear, as detailed here.
Seek income in quality munis, corporate bonds and dividend paying stocks but (again) you have to be smart with your selection, or find a manager who is.
As the name of his firm implies, Mauldin's market-timing work focuses on the market's "big" cycles - like 15-25 years - from bull (i.e. 1982-1999) to secular bear (2000-present). Price-to-earnings ratios are key to determining when the cycles switch, and Mauldin believes stocks are not "cheap" today based either on trailing 1- or 10-year P/Es, or by market-weighted P/Es as "Stocks for the Long Run" author Jeremy Siegel curiously argued in The WSJ this week.
Mauldin's baseline prediction is for "another leg down" this summer that takes major averages to new lows but sets the stage for a "1974-type bottom"; the key here is to recall the Dow bottomed in price in 1974 but then spent the next 8 years flip-flopping in a wide range around 1000, before beginning its historic rise to 10,000 (and beyond) in 1982.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/195681/Don (Click here to watch the video).
Notes:
Posted Feb 27, 2009 12:09pm EST
by Aaron Task in Investing
With the market heading lower again and the Dow hitting yet another new 11-year low intraday Friday, it's hard to believe stocks will ever be a good investment.
But "there's a bull market in our future," says John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors.
That's the good news.
The bad news is Mauldin, who selects active fund managers for his high net worth clients, says any 1990's-style bull market that rewards passive index funds and "buy and hold" investors is unlikely to arrive before for another five-to-six years.
In the interim, the investor and author of the Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter says investors should focus on:
Staying conservative and preserve capital for the "great opportunities" that will emerge when the dust settles.
Be active with your portfolio and only buy stocks if you're both a good stock picker and an astute trader.
Avoid index funds: "Buy and hold was always a bad idea," he says.
Own some gold as a hedge: But he is not a gold bug or major dollar bear, as detailed here.
Seek income in quality munis, corporate bonds and dividend paying stocks but (again) you have to be smart with your selection, or find a manager who is.
As the name of his firm implies, Mauldin's market-timing work focuses on the market's "big" cycles - like 15-25 years - from bull (i.e. 1982-1999) to secular bear (2000-present). Price-to-earnings ratios are key to determining when the cycles switch, and Mauldin believes stocks are not "cheap" today based either on trailing 1- or 10-year P/Es, or by market-weighted P/Es as "Stocks for the Long Run" author Jeremy Siegel curiously argued in The WSJ this week.
Mauldin's baseline prediction is for "another leg down" this summer that takes major averages to new lows but sets the stage for a "1974-type bottom"; the key here is to recall the Dow bottomed in price in 1974 but then spent the next 8 years flip-flopping in a wide range around 1000, before beginning its historic rise to 10,000 (and beyond) in 1982.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/195681/Don (Click here to watch the video).
Notes:
- Buy and hold. (Index fund. 20 years is the long run. Buy and hope on the market returns.)
- Relative return type strategy during a bull cycle. (Buy on dips and hold.)
- Absolute return type strategy during a bear cycle, e.g. 8%. (Do not buy and hold in a bear cycle. Time by valuation e.g. PE based on 1 year or 10 year trailing earnings. Pick and choose stocks, muni fund, etc.)
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