Guinness Anchor Berhad (Malaysia) (28.8.2012)

Date announced 28-Aug-2012
Quarter 30/06/2012
Qtr 4
FYE 30/06/2012
STOCK GUINNESS
C0DE  3255 

Price $ 15.64
Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 22.78
Curr. DY 7.99%

Dividends		% chg
Curr. FY0	125.00	131.5%
Prev FY1	54.00	20.0%
Prev FY2	45.00
Curr. DY	7.99%
Risk vs Returns
Upside	-0.02	-2%
Downside	1.00	102%
Returns
One Yr Apprec Pot.		0%
Avg Yield		6%
Avg Tot. Ann Return		6%
(for next 5 years)
INPUT VARIABLES
Today's Share Pr $		15.64
EPS GR %		10%
Avg H. PE		14.0
Avg. L. PE		11.0
Rec. Severe Low Pr		8.00
Current PE		22.78
Signature PE		12.50
RV		182%
Rational Price		8.58
Dividends
Present Dividend		125.00
Avg % DPO		90%
Present Div Yield		7.99%
Present High Yield		15.63%
EPS G. RATE		10%
Present Market Pr.		15.64

Date	Qtr No	ttm-eps	High Pr	Low Pr		High PE	Low PE
28-Aug-12	4	68.66	15.98	15.82		23.27	23.04
23-May-12	3	66.76	10.74	10.64		16.09	15.94
23-Feb-12	2	65.91	9.55	9.49		14.49	14.40
2-Nov-12	1	65.52	8.84	8.00		13.49	12.21
8-Apr-11	4	60.05	8.16	7.69		13.59	12.81
5-May-11	3	62.23	7.22	6.83		11.60	10.98
28-Jan-11	2	61.40	7.00	6.68		11.40	10.88
3-Nov-10	1	54.50	7.15	6.74		13.12	12.37
4-Aug-10	4	50.54	6.25	6.05		12.37	11.97
5-May-10	3	47.80	5.75	5.50		12.03	11.51
9-Feb-10	2	43.21	5.20	5.10		12.03	11.80
26-Nov-09	1	40.19	5.35	4.46		13.31	11.10
29-Aug-09	4	47.00	5.35	5.10		11.38	10.85
15-May-09	3	44.38	5.75	5.45		12.96	12.28
27-Feb-09	2	45.64	5.90	5.30		12.93	11.61
26-Nov-08	1	43.06	6.10	5.75		14.17	13.35
29-Aug-08	4	41.67	6.45	5.85		15.48	14.04
23-May-08	3	40.90	6.60	6.00		16.14	14.67
22-Feb-08	2	40.08	6.60	6.00		16.47	14.97
29-Nov-07	1	39.26	6.30	5.75		16.05	14.65
28-Aug-07	4	37.26	5.55	5.35		14.90	14.36
4-May-07	3	45.16	5.85	5.40		12.95	11.96
26-Feb-07	2	40.86	5.80	5.35		14.19	13.09
7-Nov-06	1	42.68	5.95	5.50		13.94	12.89
22-Aug-06	4	42.44	5.95	5.55		14.02	13.08
26-May-06	3	38.23	5.75	5.20		15.04	13.60
21-Feb-06	2	38.49	5.90	5.35		15.33	13.90

Guinness - Return on Retained Earnings

Guinness

(Figures are in sens)

Year		DPS		EPS		Retained EPS
2002		27.4		24		-3.4
2003		28.1		25.8		-2.3
2004		30.4		32.6		2.2
2005		30.1		35.7		5.6
2006		30.2		42.4		12.2
2007		32.9		37.3		4.4
2008		36.4		41.7		5.3
2009		41		47		6
2010		45		50.5		5.5
2011		54		60		6
Total		355.5		397		41.5
2002-2011
DPO				0.90
EPS increase				36.00
Return on retained earnings				87%

Investor's Checklist: Consumer Services

Most consumer services concepts fail in the long run, so any investment in a company in the speculative or aggressive growth stage of the business life cycle needs to be monitored more closely than the average stock investment.

Beware of stocks that have already priced in lofty growth expectations.  You can make money if you get in early enough, but you can also lose your shirt on the stock's rapid downslide.

The sector is rife with low switching costs.  Companies that establish store loyalty or store dependence are very attractive.  Tiffany's is a good example; it faces limited competition in the retail jewelery market.

Make sure to compare inventory and payables turns to determine which retailers are superior operators.  Companies that know what their customers want and how to exploit their negotiating power are more likely to make solid bets in the sector.

Keep an eye on those off-balance sheet obligations.   Many retailers have little or no debt on the books, but their overall financial health might not be that good.

Look for a buying opportunity when a solid company releases poor monthly or quarterly sales numbers.  Many investors overreact to one month's worth of bad same-store sales results, and the reason might just be bad weather or an overly difficult comparison to the prior-year period.  Focus on the fundamentals of the business and not the emotion of the stock.

Companies also tend to move in tandem when news comes out about the economy.  Look for a chance to pick up shares of a great retailer when the entire sector falls - keep that watch list handy.  


Ref:  The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey


Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Investor's Checklist: Consumer Goods

Find companies that enjoy the cost advantages of manufacturing on a larger scale than most other competitors.  One related issue is whether the firm holds dominant market share in its categories.

Look for the firms that consistently launch successful new products - all the better if the firm is first to market with these innovations.

Check to see if the company is supporting its brand with consistent advertising.  If the firm constantly promotes its products with sale prices, it's depleting brand equity and just milking the brand for shorter-term gain.

Examine how well the firm is handling operating costs.  Occasional restructuring can help squeeze out efficiency gains and lower costs, but if the firm is regularly incurring restructuring costs and relying solely on this cost-cutting tactic to boost its business, tread carefully.

Because these mature firms generate so much free cash flow, it's important to make sure management is using it wisely.  How much of the cash is turned over to shareholders in the form of dividends or share repurchase agreements?

Keep in mind that investors may bid up a consumer goods stock during economic downturns, making the shares pricey relative to its fair value.  Look for buying opportunities when shares trade with a 20 percent to 30 percent margin of safety.  

Ref:  The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey



Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Guinness (At a Glance)

Guinness	30.6.2011	30.6.2010	Change
Revenue	1,488.72	1,358.63	9.57%
Gross Profit	469.47	385.373	21.82%
Operating Profit	240.598	203.332	18.33%
Financing costs	-0.429	-0.345	24.35%
PBT	242.883	204.991	18.48%
PAT	181.378	152.691	18.79%
EPS (basic) sen	60	50.5	18.81%
NCA	233.229	239.677	-2.69%
CA	451.909	422.885	6.86%
Total Assets	685.138	662.562	3.41%
Total Equity	516.616	470.928	9.70%
NCL	32.592	31.846	2.34%
CL	135.93	159.788	-14.93%
Total Liabilities	168.522	191.634	-12.06%
Total Eq + Liab	685.138	662.562	3.41%
Cash & Eq	179.777	149.626	20.15%
LT Borrowings	0	0	#DIV/0!
ST Borrowings	0	0	#DIV/0!
Inventories	65.402	75.691	-13.59%
Trade receivables	205.966	196.135	5.01%
Trade payables	132.577	155.064	-14.50%
CA	451.909	422.885	6.86%
CL	135.93	159.788	-14.93%
Current Ratio	3.32	2.65	25.62%
PBT	242.88	204.99	18.48%
OPBCWC	286.19	233.07	22.80%
Cash from Operations	256.82	201.00	27.78%
Net CFO	196.345	143.12	37.19%
CFI	-30.25	-33.406	-9.45%
CFF	-135.944	123.86	-209.76%
Capex	-31.81	-29.91	6.35%
FCF	164.535	113.21	45.34%
Dividends paid	-135.944	-123.86	9.76%
No of ord shares	302.098	302.098	0.00%
Financial Ratios
Net Profit Margin	12.18%	11.24%	8.41%
Asset Turnover	2.17	2.05	5.96%
Financial Leverage	1.33	1.41	-5.74%
ROA	26.47%	23.05%	14.87%
ROC	53.85%	47.52%	13.31%
ROE	35.11%	32.42%	8.28%
Valuation
Price (5.3.2012)	13.68
Market cap	4132.70
P/E	22.79
P/BV	8.00
P/FCF	25.12
P/Div	30.40
DPO ratio	0.75
EY	4.39%
FCF/P	3.98%
DY	3.29%

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date		Financial Yr. End		Qtr	Period End		Revenue RM '000		Profit/Lost RM'000		EPS		Amended
23-Feb-12		30-Jun-12		2	31-Dec-11		468,322		65,822		21.79		-
02-Nov-11		30-Jun-12		1	30-Sep-11		444,623		55,208		18.28		-
04-Aug-11		30-Jun-11		4	30-Jun-11		348,759		29,076		9.63		-
04-Aug-11		30-Jun-11		4	30-Jun-11		348,759		29,076		9.63		-

FYE	30th June
Qtr	Year	Revenue	Earnings	EPS	ttm-EPS
Q2	2012	468.322	65.822	21.79	65.91
Q1	2012	444.623	55.208	18.28	65.52
Q4	2011	348.759	29.076	9.63	60.05
Q3	2011	351.916	48.972	16.21	62.16
Q2	2011	421.414	64.635	21.4	61.4
Q1	2011	366.631	38.695	12.81	54.51
Q4	2010	308.713	35.477	11.74	50.54
Q3	2010	370.817	46.679	15.45
Q2	2010	378.134	43.836	14.51
Q1	2010	300.969	26.699	8.84

Better earnings for GAB

Friday February 24, 2012

By THOMAS HUONG
huong@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Guinness Anchor Bhd (GAB) posted a slight increase in net profit to RM65.8mil for its second quarter ended Dec 31, 2011 compared with RM64.6mil a year earlier.

Revenue for the quarter grew 11% year-on-year to RM468.3mil on the back of strong sales generated during large-scale commercial events and an earlier Chinese New Year festive period.

The producer of beer and stout told Bursa Malaysia that in the second quarter, there was a one-off reversal of costs over-accrued in the previous financial year.

For the six months ended Dec 31, 2011, GAB's net profit grew 17% year-on-year to RM121mil while revenue rose 15.8% to RM912.9mil.

GAB brewery in Sungai Way, Selangor. The company has declared a single-tier interim dividend of 10 sen per 50 sen stock unit for FY12.

Earnings per share for the first half of the current financial year (FY12) improved to 40.06 sen against 34.20 sen a year earlier.

GAB has also declared a single-tier interim dividend of 10 sen per 50 sen stock unit for FY12.

The total dividend for the first half of FY12 was 70 sen per 50 sen stock unit.

Managing director Charles Ireland said in a statement that the company's performance was within expectations.

“Our domestic business is performing well. However, we see a significant reduction in our duty-free and export volume as a result of our strategy to focus on the local market,” he said.

He said the brewery's Guinness brand was the star in the first half of FY12 while “Heineken again grew by double-digits and Tiger continued to consolidate its leadership position in the malt liquor market.”

Ireland added that the company's RM40mil information technology infrastructure upgrade initiative, called Project Quantum, was expected to be completed in December.

“With a good performance in the first half, I am confident that GAB will deliver a satisfactory performance across the full year,” he said.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/2/24/business/10795634&sec=business

Guinness


Market Watch
Recent Financial Results

RM'000  
Date   Financial Yr. End   Qtr   Period End   Revenue  Profit/Lost  EPS   Amended
23-Feb-12      30-Jun-12      2   31-Dec-11      468,322      65,822      21.79       -
02-Nov-11      30-Jun-12      1   30-Sep-11      444,623      55,208      18.28       -
04-Aug-11      30-Jun-11      4   30-Jun-11      348,759      29,076      9.63       -
05-May-11      30-Jun-11      3   31-Mar-11      351,916      48,972      16.21       -

ttm-EPS  65.91 sen
Price RM 12.60
ttm-PE  19.1x

Guinness Anchor Berhad

Company Name	:	GUINNESS ANCHOR BERHAD
Stock Name	:	GAB
Date Announced	:	02/11/2011

Financial Year End	:	30/06/2012
Quarter	:	1
Quarterly report for the financial period ended	:	30/09/2011
The figures	:	have not been audited

Converted attachment :

Please attach the full Quarterly Report here:

Financial Report Sept 11.pdf
Press Release Nov 2011.pdf

Currency	:	Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

30/09/2011

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD		CUMULATIVE PERIOD
		CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		30/09/2011	30/09/2010	30/09/2011	30/09/2010
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	444,623	366,631	444,623	366,631
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	73,607	51,638	73,607	51,638
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	55,208	38,695	55,208	38,695
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	55,208	38,695	55,208	38,695
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	18.28	12.81	18.28	12.81
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	1.8900		1.7100

Remarks :

This announcement is dated 2 November 2011. Cumulative Period 3 Months ending 30/9/2011 Income Statement Revenue  444.623m Profit from operations 73.630m PBT 73.607m PAT 55.208m EPS Basic 18.28 sen Shares 302.098m Interest Interest income 1.271m Interest expense 0.017m Taxation  18.399m Balance Sheet NCA  230.521m CA  558.786m TOTAL ASSETS  789.307m CL 184.885m NCL  32.592m TOTAL LIABILITIES   217.477m TOTAL EQUITY   571.830m TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 789.307m Net assets per share  1.89 sen Inventories 66.378m Trade and other receivables  325.402m Trade and other payables  176.172m Cash and cash equivalents  153.981m ST borrowings  - LT borrowings  - Cash flow statements PBT  73.607m Operating profit before changes in working capital  80.341m Cash generated from operations after changes in working capital 3.413m Net cash from operating activities  (11.904m) Net cash used in investing activities  (3.892m) Net cash used in financing activity  - Acquisition of PPE  (3.094m) Dividends paid 30.9.2011  - 30.9.2011  -

Prospects
No further increase in the current excise tax rate in the national budget 2012 augurs well for the MLM. Furthermore, the Group remains committed to keep driving its competitive performance in Malaysia and is confident in its ability to continue to build its brands profitably.

However, there are several factors which may affect the MLM performance including the overall Malaysian economic performance and the uncertain global economic climate. Therefore, the Group remains cautiously optimistic of its future performance and will strive to deliver another year of success in the financial year 2012.


The weighted average number of ordinary stock units outstanding as at 30 September 2011: 302.098m.

Market Watch

Recent Financial Results

Announcement Date		Financial Yr. End		Qtr	Period End		Revenue RM '000		Profit/Lost RM'000		EPS		Amended
02-Nov-11		30-Jun-12		1	30-Sep-11		444,623		55,208		18.28		-
04-Aug-11		30-Jun-11		4	30-Jun-11		348,759		29,076		9.63		-
04-Aug-11		30-Jun-11		4	30-Jun-11		348,759		29,076		9.63		-
05-May-11		30-Jun-11		3	31-Mar-11		351,916		48,972		16.21		-

Share Price Performance    High Low Prices 1 Month 11.060   (09-Nov-11) 10.400   (11-Nov-11) Prices 3 Months 11.060   (09-Nov-11) 9.400   (27-Sep-11) Prices 12 Months 11.060   (09-Nov-11) 8.960   (29-Nov-10) Volume 12 Months 9,107   (13-Jan-11) 10   (20-Apr-11)

Guinness Anchor Berhad Company Snapshot
Business Description:
Guinness Anchor Berhad operates in the Beer and ale sector. Guinness Anchor Berhad (GAB) is a Malaysia-based company engaged in malt liquor brewing, including production, packaging, marketing and distribution of its products principally in Malaysia. The Company's brand names are Tiger, Guinness, Heineken, Anchor Smooth, Anchor Strong, Kilkenny, Anglia Shandy, Malta, Paulaner, Strongbow and Sol. Its subsidiaries include Guinness Anchor Marketing Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in marketing and promotion of beverages, primarily alcoholic in Malaysia, and Ramaha Corporation (M) Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in property holding and land development. The Company also markets its products to other Southeast Asian countries.


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:

Current Price (11/18/2011): 10.92
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 1.9% 13 Weeks 4.6%

4 Weeks 7.5% 52 Weeks 18.7%

Guinness Anchor Berhad Key Data:

2011 Sales 1,488,720,000
(Year Ending Jan 2012).
Employees: 500
Market Cap: 3,298,910,160
Shares Outstanding: 302,098,000
Closely Held Shares: 221,216,118



23.11.2011

Price 10.86
PE  16.58x
DY 4.97%
Market cap  3280.8m