Should investors stick with the winners of 2011?

Should investors stick with the winners of 2011?


The eurozone crisis has plunged many investors into a state of gloom. But some shares and funds have still made money this year. Are these the assets to hold on to, or should we look elsewhere in the new year?

Novak Djokovic won his first Wimbledon title this year - but does past success mean future returns for investors? Photo: EDDIE MULHOLLAND

By Rosie Murray-West

6:00AM GMT 12 Dec 2011

Comment

With the euro crisis posing as many questions as Jeremy Paxman in an episode of University Challenge, it is difficult to know what lessons can be drawn from the past year's performance of funds and shares.

Almost all the world's major stock markets are in negative territory this year. Despite this, some funds and individual shares have done exceptionally well over the past 12 months. Is their performance likely to continue, and how are the experts rebalancing their portfolios?

Figures from Morningstar show that almost all the best-performing funds of the year are corporate or government bond funds. These have benefited from investor panic, with prices rising as people sought safe havens.

Baillie Gifford's long-dated gilt fund rose by nearly 22pc in the period – beaten only by Legg Mason's Japan Equity Fund, which has been boosted by a faster-than-expected recovery following the Japanese earthquake. Index-linked gilt funds also did well out of rising inflation.

Are these funds the place to be for the next 12 months? John Chatfeild-Roberts, who runs the Merlin funds of funds for Jupiter, said not. His advice came with a caveat: "If you had asked me a year ago I would have said gilts were too expensive, and I would have been wrong. They are even more expensive now."

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He said that if you valued gilts and US Treasury bonds like shares they would look overpriced. "There's no long-term growth, and a price to earnings ratio of about 44."

Instead he urged investors to think carefully about the nature of risk when picking funds and stocks, given the situation in Europe. His Merlin funds hold a number of good performers from the past year, including star fund manager Neil Woodford's Invesco funds. Mr Woodford has seen his High Income fund gain around 11pc in a year. He holds cash-generating stocks including large pharmaceutical companies.

Mr Woodford said he was confident that by picking strong companies with sustainable earnings growth his portfolio would continue to thrive in 2012. "The increasingly tough economic outlook is not a surprise to me – I maintain my view that the developed world faces a prolonged period of low economic growth," he said.

"However, I also continue to believe that there are certain types of company that can thrive, delivering sustainable dividend and earnings growth in this environment."

Nick Raynor, an investment analyst at the Share Centre, is also banging the drum for defensive sectors. His research shows that the top performers this year come from sectors such as food, drinks and pharmaceuticals. "The majority of defensive sectors have held up well and are among the highest performers for the period," he said. "In 2012 we expect this to continue and the markets to remain unpredictable until the uncertainty with the eurozone is resolved."

The top-performing share for the year so far is Arm Holdings, which has risen by 46pc. The chip maker is doing well out of the fact that there is greater demand for mobile phones, and more advanced chips as phones get "smarter". Other top performers include Shire Pharmaceuticals, up by 43pc, which has made advances in market share and has been buoyed by takeover rumours.

Not everyone is confident that even defensive stocks are the answer. Douglas Chadwick of Saltydog Investor, a newsletter for those who control their own Isas and Sipps (self-invested personal pensions), said: "Wait for the market to confirm your opinions before trading. You've plenty of time to capitalise on a recovery."

His portfolio has risen by 7.2pc since its launch on November 23 2010. However, since last week, Saltydog has advised people to put 100pc of their money into cash.

But advisers agree that trying to time the market is an impossible task. Ted Scott, director of global strategy at F & C Investments, believes that those in cash may miss out on recovery.

"With each emergency summit proving to be more disappointing than the last, investors have lost faith in eurozone policymakers to provide a solution that will work," Mr Scott wrote in a research note under the heading "A great opportunity to buy equities will emerge".

"This has contributed to a collapse in investor sentiment with fear the overriding emotion in today's markets." But he added: "If a satisfactory solution for the debt crisis were to be found, the reversal in investor sentiment could contribute to a very strong and sustained rally." Equity fans can only hope that Mr Scott is right.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/8946743/Should-investors-stick-with-the-winners-of-2011.html

Outlook 2012: Markets to remain volatile, uncertain

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/analysis/outlook-2012-markets-to-remain-volatile-uncertain/articleshow/10987167.cms?curpg=2

Markets a challenge for investors

Lesley Parker
November 16, 2011



Danger zones ... with warning signs at every turn, fear is influencing investors' choices. Illustration: Nic Walker


After four major crises in the past decade, concerns are mounting over the best way to invest for retirement.

If you want an illustration of how difficult the environment has become for share investors, consider the fact that US stocks have now underperformed bonds not just in the short term but in the past 30 years, which is something they haven't done in any other 30-year period since the start of the American Civil War. That's right - since 1861.

The global chief investment officer for asset management and private banking at Credit Suisse, Stefan Keitel, who visited Australia this month, says that has placed a question mark against the equities culture in countries such as the US and Australia, which have a tradition of share ownership.

''In equity-friendly regions - as, for example, the US - people now have far more doubts whether they really should go for pure equity investing when it comes to retirement planning,'' the Zurich-based Keitel says.

''If you look back at the behaviour of US investors, their whole retirement was planned on equity investing. After having experienced four major crises over the last decade, now the doubts are rising if that's the right strategy.''

Australians have also had a love affair with equities. In 2004, 55 per cent of the population owned shares, according to the annual share ownership survey by the Australian Securities Exchange, putting them on a par with Americans. That rate slid to 36per cent amid the global financial crisis in 2008 but recovered to 43 per cent last year. This year's InvestSMART Funds Flow Survey, the online discount fund brokers owned by Fairfax Media, found that the huge volatility in global sharemarkets had indeed sent many local investors to the sidelines or into more conservative asset classes (see story below).

Asked whether the Wharton School study of the long-term return from shares versus bonds refuted portfolio theory that there's an ''equities risk premium'' - extra return for taking on a riskier asset - Keitel says the result is ''pretty interesting'' but not surprising.

''Especially the last 11 years have been anything but good for the equity investor, given the different crises scenarios we have already had,'' he says. ''[But] what has been now the result for the past 10, 11 and maybe, on average, the last 30 years must not necessarily be the result for the next 30 years.''

In other words, as Australian investors are reminded in every product disclosure statement, past performance is no predictor of future performance.

''We think the phase of outperformance of bonds against equities will definitely come to an end,'' Keitel says. ''It will not be a sharp trend reversal … equity markets will stay volatile but I think when you compare these two asset classes, given the valuations behind them, we think that equity markets are better underpinned.

''So portfolio theory will come back and also the risk premium will come back. But … it will take time - mean reversion always takes time.''

Keitel used the word fear to describe the attitude of some investors to equities these days, amid enormous volatility in sharemarkets as stock prices plummet at the first hint of bad news and soar in response to any reassurance.

''I think we are living in a more trading-oriented world and maybe the capital markets in general have become a bit more unserious, '' Keitel says.

Just as markets focused too much on the negative in July, August and September, they were perhaps too positive during the counter-rally, he says. That in turn preceded another slump as Greece prevaricated over its debt crisis.

''Investing disciplines are much more short-term oriented than they have been in the past,'' Keitel says, making markets more challenging places for smaller investors. ''It's getting more and more complex [for the ordinary investor] because the cycles are getting more and more short-lived,'' he says. ''That complexity, I think, is of course for many investor types not a good thing and, of course, also limits down the willingness to invest in these markets.''

But from Credit Suisse's point of view, that only means there's a strong need for guidance from advisers such as itself, he says. ''It's different if you're in a market cycle like 1982 to 2000, where everybody could make money without having any intellectual competence.''

Keitel expects ''the next weeks, months and years will be anything but boring. It will stay extremely challenging in the capital markets and it will also stay challenging when we talk about … the equities side.''

Key risks include below-trend economic growth - but not recession - in major nations, inflation in nations such as China and any escalation of the sovereign debt crisis.

On the positive side, there's what he calls ''the experience factor''. ''All central bankers and politicians now are pretty aware what contagion means,'' he says.

Markets have already priced in most of the apparent risks. Also, investors can't afford to stay in cash forever, especially with low or falling interest rates.

''So despite a broad bundle of risks, we also have a broad bundle of supporting elements,'' Keitel says.

What that means in practice depends on an investor's risk profile, he says.

People with long-term horizons might take setbacks as buying opportunities, while those with shorter-term horizons, who don't have time to recover from losses, could use rebound rallies to move more money to the sideline.

There's numbers in safety

Do Australian investors, like Americans, increasingly fear equities?

The annual InvestSMART Funds Flow Survey released last week found that sharemarket volatility has sent many Australian investors onto the sidelines or into more conservative asset classes in the past two years.

The survey of 1540 "self-directed" investors using the online discount fund broker's service found there was a 19 per cent decrease in share holdings between 2009 and this year but also a 35 per cent fall in cash holdings. Fixed interest was a significant benefactor (up 85 per cent), along with property holdings (up 37 per cent).

There was a 110 per cent increase on last year in the number of respondents who rated the current market as bearish.

Another indicator might be how much money is being kept in cash by self-managed super fund trustees.

Researcher Investment Trends, as part of its annual SMSF Investor Report, found that total cash held by SMSFs grew by $40 billion between the publication of its reports in May 2009 and this year, an increase of 54 per cent.

Key points


❏ US stocks have now underperformed bonds over the long term.


❏ Credit Suisse is expecting the ''equities premium'' to return, however.


❏ Continued market volatility is also scaring off some investors.


❏ Volatility is expected to remain for some time.


❏ Investment cycles are increasingly short-lived.




Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/markets-a-challenge-for-investors-20111115-1nfxs.html#ixzz1fzScbt46

Investment outlook: For a brighter investment forecast, look long term

Despite the recent market volatility, opportunities to grow your nest egg are out there

4:22PM GMT 25 Nov 2011

Doom and gloom might be the order of the day – as politicians struggle to control the EuroZone debt crisis, plus a worsening UK economic outlook – but the medium- to longer-term forecasts remain much brighter. In particular, leading fund managers agree that future market conditions appear more favourable for investors, providing your money is in the right place.

2011 will certainly be remembered as a year of global market volatility, kicking off with unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, followed by devastating earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand. More recently, the EuroZone has taken centre stage.

All of these events have contributed to a climate of uncertainty, where even the smallest piece of economic news can send markets into a spin.

Yet the fundamentals of stocks and shares equities themselves offer greater encouragement. That’s because the present stock market issues are mainly due to a lack of confidence over the inaction of European politicians in tackling the EuroZone difficulties. The balance sheets of the corporate companies themselves – particularly large blue chip companies – look strong.

While share prices are currently low, the FTSE 100TM has already grown by 10pc since the lows of early October. Many industry experts agree that the medium- to longer-term prospects look encouraging, here’s why:

Dividends to reach a three-year high

Dividend yield payments – a share of the profits companies pay to investors on a regular basis – are on the increase, and 2011 looks set to see the fastest growth in dividends since 2008. This is particularly the case for the UK dividend market, with Capita Registrars reporting that some companies were increasing payments to investors by as much as 100pc mid-way through 2011.

Even allowing for the subsequent market volatility, dividend payments still rose by 16pc between July and September, compared to dividend payments over the same period a year earlier.

Dividends have always been an important part of equity returns. While equities can rise and fall in value, dividends are generally more stable. This means they can prove a valuable way of providing an income or supporting growth in the value of your investments.

It’s ‘time in’ the markets, not ‘timing’

Investing your money should always be viewed as a medium- to longer-term commitment. Sadly, many investors make the mistake of encashing their investments after only a short-term, especially when the markets suffer a downturn. Having originally agreed a longer-term investment horizon, this about-turn in strategy often results in losses.

While past performance should not be considered a guide to future returns, historically markets have recovered strongly, over time, from significant crashes. According to Hindsight statistics, in 1987, ‘Black Monday’ saw the FTSE 100TM (total return including dividends) fall 31pc – but five years later it had grown by 120pc. After the devastating 9/11 attacks in 2001, the FTSE 100TM dropped 11pc; by September 2006 it had risen by 57pc.

Time – not timing – is the key to a successful investment strategy. Generally the longer you are able or prepared to retain your investments, the greater the potential return.

A balanced approach

Not that investing has to be solely about stocks and shares assets. Essentially there are four other types of assets that can feature in your overall portfolio: cash (deposit-based savings), fixed interest (loans to the Government or companies), property and commodities (e.g. gold).

Each asset class has its own positives and negatives. By placing your money into an investment fund that contains a range of asset classes, you can reduce the overall risk to your capital. That’s because when one type of investment is performing less well – such as property recently – others may produce higher returns.

Receive no-obligation financial advice

The medium- to longer-term outlook for growing your money might appear encouraging, but is your nest egg suitably positioned to take advantage of potential market opportunities?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/financialservices/investing/Telegraph-Investment-service/8916213/Investment-outlook-For-a-brighter-investment-forecast-look-long-term.html

How to weather the market storm or market volatility

How to weather the storm

Martin Roth

October 26, 2011

Explore your options ... experts suggest an open-minded approach to investment may be the safest course of action. Photo: Michele Mossop

A desire to lessen risk in uncertain times can adversely affect an investor's capacity to earn solid returns.

When equity markets become volatile, fearful investors often turn to defensive sectors such as consumer staples including supermarkets, food producers and healthcare, expecting these to hold up well in any economic downturn.

Other investors lean towards shares in companies providing high-dividend yields, believing a solid dividend signals a financially strong corporation.

In the recent highly uncertain investing environment, such strategies continue to have many advocates.

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But some experts warn that investors, in their desire to minimise risk, might in fact end up sacrificing attractive returns.

DEFENSIVES

The chief executive officer of the market data firm Lincoln Indicators, Elio D'Amato, argues that the market has been sold off so heavily that investors risk missing some strong performance if they stick to defensive stocks.

''Many stocks are cheap right now,'' he says. ''This is a great time to be getting excited about the market.

''I know a lot of people want to go to defensives because they are worried about all the volatility. But the current market offers an amazing opportunity for investors who do, I suppose, have to be of stronger stomach. It gives them the chance to pick up stocks that have fallen sharply for no other reason than sympathy with the problems in Europe.''

D'Amato warns more generally against defensive stocks, citing the example of bionic ear pioneer Cochlear, which in September had its shares plunge 20 per cent in a day on news of a product recall.

''Cochlear is a great business,'' he says. ''One would argue that it is a defensive stock. It has a market-leading product that is global. Yet just one problem occurs and the share price gets battered.''

He also urges caution on buying stocks simply because they offer high-dividend yields. ''A lot of people have incorrectly associated high dividends with company safety,'' he says.

''But we saw during the Global Financial Crisis, with the property trusts and the like, that irrational asset values caused significant strain and pressure, and some of those companies just stopped paying dividends altogether.''

The chief market analyst at City Index, Peter Esho, advises investors in the current market environment to adopt a three-pronged strategy.

DIVERSIFY

''Your portfolio should be diversified,'' he says. ''You do not want all your eggs in one basket.

''And there will be big question marks over economic growth for the next five years. We expect to be in a low-growth environment. So you do not want to be buying stocks with high price-earnings multiples, as these have been priced for high growth. In fact, you want to be in businesses that have had their growth prospects discounted by the market - very heavily discounted.''

Third, he advises investors to incorporate some type of insurance mechanism in their portfolios as protection against sharp market falls.

For more sophisticated investors this could even extend to buying derivatives, such as options. For others it means maintaining a strong cash position.

He also cautions against buying stocks simply because they are in traditional defensive sectors.

''A business might be very defensive, like Woolworths,'' he says. ''But it might trade on a price that assumes growth. We find it hard to justify paying a price-earnings multiple of 15 for a company like Woolworths that expects just 4 per cent profit growth next year.''

The head of research at Fat Prophets, Colin Whitehead, says: ''We view the market as pretty historically under-valued.'' In his opinion, defensive stocks do not offer the same capacity to rebound when the market returns to a more reasonable valuation.

However, he expects markets to remain volatile for quite some time and believes that investors will probably need to be ''more nimble'' than they have been in the past. He says: ''Certainly the investors who generate the best returns over the next two years are probably going to be more active, as opposed to the traditional buy-and-hold approach.''

But the senior equities analyst at Morningstar Australasia, James Cooper, continues to believe traditional dividend investing is still a viable strategy.

DEBT-FUELLED GROWTH

''We have had 20 years of debt-fuelled growth,'' Cooper says. ''Now there is all this deleveraging going on and that is going to depress growth for a number of years. People buying growth stocks might be unpleasantly surprised.

''So once the penny begins to drop, investors might start gravitating towards stocks where there is a fairly solid dividend yield that allows them to keep pace with inflation.''

He adds: ''There has been this myth that investing is about capital gain. But at the end of the day it should really be about the return that the company can generate in terms of dividends.

''We are starting to see a return to this more pure form of investing.''

Among individual stocks, D'Amato recommends billing systems provider Hansen Technologies and Tasmanian financial products business MyState, both of which offer attractive dividends and growth prospects.

Esho likes Qantas Airways, which he believes has been heavily oversold and which, he says, is now worth considerably more than its mid-October market capitalisation of $3.5 billion.

He also recommends office real estate investment trusts such as Commonwealth Property Office Fund and Dexus Property Group, which offer good dividends and are trading at a discount to their valuations.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/how-to-weather-the-storm-20111025-1mgrv.html#ixzz1bmNKqzas

Tips on how to invest during turbulent times

Tuesday October 25, 2011

Singular Vision - By Teoh Kok Lin

STOCK markets around the world lately gave investors that sinking feeling again, weighed down by deepening woes of Europe's sovereign debts, an anemic US economy and new fears of a sharp economic slowdown in China.

Many investors sold shares to hold more cash, despite cash earning very little interest. In Singapore for example, six months USD fixed deposits of less than US$1mil earns zero interest in some banks.

In the United States, 10-year Treasury bonds are yielding 2.1% per annum; despite misery returns, many investors prefer the safety of US Treasuries during crisis times, while waiting for policymakers to act boldly and markets to stabilise.

At the same time, we see many economists and other pundits offer a whole host of predictions about today's global financial predicaments. The many predictions range from the slightly hopeful to the pessimistic, right down to the disastrous and absurd.

Does it sound familiar? Did we not hear many such predictions during the 2008/2009 global financial crisis? Who should we listen to? What should one do?

No doubt in hindsight, a few forecasts will be correct; and as the dust settles, many extreme predictions will also likely be forgotten. Yet for investors today, separating much of the “noise” from facts is one of the more tricky parts of steering through these very challenging times.

Fundamentals and valuation takes a back seat during a crisis

Volatile stock markets today are driven by latest positive or negative news flow affecting sentiment. Uncertainties during a crisis causes investment risks to spike, stock investors tend to sell first and ask questions later; fundamentals and stock valuation typically takes a back seat in the short term.

No doubt many investors worry about negative impact to a company's fundamentals in difficult times. For example, a manufacturing company's stock with a present price earning (PE) multiple of six times can change drastically to 60 times PE if earnings were to collapse 90% because of a global financial crisis.

Similarly, a property company's price to book value discount of 60% can easily drop to 30% if asset value is marked down by half in troubled times. Monitoring, reassessments and analysis of a company's financial progress is obviously important during tumultuous times.

Share prices of companies (even those with good fundamentals) may continue to fall indiscriminately, due to many reasons such as panic selling, fund redemption and repatriation. Investors should tread cautiously, even if stock prices may appear to be at very attractive levels.

I relate a challenging experience from the last global stock market plunge. In 2008, I invested in the largest luxury watch distributor and retailer in China (at that time 210 stores and sales amounting to 5.5 billion yuan a year or about 30% market share).

This Hong Kong listed Chinese company sells luxury watches (such as Omega, Longines, Bvlgari) from global brand owners Swatch group of Switzerland and LVMH of France (both by the way are also 9.1% and 6.3% shareholders of this Chinese company respectively).

As the US sub-prime mortgage crisis deepens by end-July 2008, many stocks around the world plunged. This company's shares similarly dropped from HK$2 to HK$1.50 in a matter of weeks.

We vigorously reassessed the company's fundamentals, including visits to retail outlets in China and Hong Kong. The result was an affirmation of our conviction to invest in the company for the long-term, despite short-term price weakness.

By late September 2008, we decided to purchase more shares when valuation proved so attractive at HK$1.15 per share (at a PE multiple of eight times).

Unfortunately, as the global financial crisis worsened, the company's shares continued to plunge and bottomed to a low of HK$0.51 by Nov 26, 2008.

This stock eventually recovered back to HK$2 per share (by June 1, 2009) and went on to exceed HK$5 per share by late 2010. The company's share prices recovered partly because Asian equities rebounded quickly in 2009, but also reached new highs because the company's fundamentals continue to improve with strong sales (+49%), profitability (+26%) and expansions (+140 stores to 350 stores) from 2008 to 2010.

A lesson if you will that during a crisis, one should be prepared for short-term (weeks and months) stock market volatility.

It is essential for bargain hunters to have long-term holding power, good understanding of company fundamentals and strong conviction on a company's prospect. In the long-term, we know fundamentals and valuation does matter.

How does one invest during a time of crisis?

My approaches to investing in turbulent times are:

Search for and invest (when valuations are attractive) in well managed companies that will not only survive but emerge stronger from crisis times;

Be prepared to stomach stock market volatility in the months ahead;

Have a longer term investment horizon (perhaps two to three years); once this crisis dissipates, reap the rewards as stock markets recover.

In Asia, macroeconomic fundamentals likely will remain resilient as many Asian economies have strong foreign currency reserves, coupled with more fiscal and monetary policy options to support growth.

China is also likely to withstand any fallout from Europe better than most would think. China's economy is still growing at a strong 9.1% gross domestic product growth for the third quarter of 2011; speculations about China's economy crashing may be somewhat premature at this stage.

Similarly, I think many established Asian companies have sufficient resources be it cash, borrowing powers or human capital, to emerge out of these turbulent times faster and stronger than before.

I believe with increasingly attractive valuation, the investing risk-reward equation (potential downside risk versus long term return prospects) favors Asian equities in the long run. I have confidence investing in Asia's fundamentals and Asian companies for many more years ahead.

Teoh Kok Lin is the founder and chief investment officer of Singular Asset Management Sdn Bhd

Never mind the gyrations, see the opportunities.

Beware: massive gains are not a sign of good health

October 9, 2011

JUST when we were getting used to the ''$X billion wiped off shares'' stories, along came a week that wiped $90 billion back on, but neither headline is particularly healthy.

Of course, most investors will happily take the wipe-on over the wipe-off, let alone the occasional wipe-out, but such extreme volatility speaks more of continuing nervousness and uncertainty than investment-inducing stability.

For all the relief of the week's relief rally, nothing much has really changed with the markets. We remain captives of dubious European political resolve and prey to more wild swings over the months ahead as the continent stumbles from one precipice to another.

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The odds are that the Europeans will muddle through, that they won't be totally stupid given the knowledge of this crisis, but it's not going to be a quick process and it will be marked by more sharp falls and rallies along the way.

And then there's the US. While the Europeans stumble along, the Americans are bumbling from one economic indicator to the next with the focus on whether the country could be facing a double-dip recession. It matters less as it doesn't immediately threaten the global financial system, but it still chews up a lot of media coverage and Wall Street sentiment still holds disproportionate sway over the world's markets.

As it turned out, last week's American figures were mainly favourable, topped by Friday night's better-than-expected payroll numbers, but again the fundamentals haven't much changed. The US and Europe are facing an extended period of low or no growth as the world order changes and they collectively deal with their debt habits. Fortunately the developing world is picking up the slack, leaving the global growth rate about average.

The sooner that is generally accepted, the calmer markets will become, allowing investors to get back to trying to pick which companies will perform best. It is a less spectacular pastime than riding the roller-coaster of boom or doom, but considerably better for general health.

Within that general scenario, your columnist remains a rare fish as I'm happy for both the North Atlantic economies and our stockmarket to be flat.

The former because it helps make room for developing nations to live up to their name: to develop, to get their share.

Just as Australia's patchwork economy frees up resources in some industries and regions, encouraging them to travel to those industries and regions that need them more, the global two-speed economy prevents commodity prices going over the top.

And weaker developed nations encourage some developing nations to get over their tendency to depend on Western consumers' credit cards to pay for their growth. The world ends up stronger for the diversification.

As for our stockmarket staying down, that's fine by me as I'm still investing.

I hope to continue working, continue to put money into my superannuation, continue to add to a dividend-paying source of wealth.

Let the traders worry about stocks bouncing around, I'm happy for my super fund to keep accumulating shares in solid companies as cheaply as possible for as long as possible. Never mind the gyrations, see the opportunities.

Michael Pascoe is a BusinessDay contributing editor.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/beware-massive-gains-are-not-a-sign-of-good-health-20111008-1lew0.html#ixzz1aH13kv58