Stock market volatility - getting used to it

Diary of a private investor: politicians have us in their grip

Once you become acclimatised to the market turbulence, the investment game is still worth playing.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and French President Nicolas Sarkozy Photo: Reuters

By James Bartholomew

2:00AM BST 01 Oct 2011

Stock market volatility has been going on so long that one is almost getting used to it. It is the peacetime equivalent of living through a war and getting accustomed to siren wails. A share of mine drops 4pc and the next day falls another 7pc. Nothing unusual about that. If I can't take it, I should go and get treated for shell shock.

Often people who write in newspapers adopt a persona and, in particular, a confidence that is not genuine, let alone justified. Actually, most of us do not know what is going to happen. And in our personal investments and other financial decisions, we make mistakes like everyone else. Investment is living with uncertainty – knowing you will get it wrong some of the time but reckoning the game is still worth playing.

There is certainly no need to think that everyone but you is doing fine in the current crisis. I got the following email from a former chief investment officer of a major fund manager who now looks after his own money: "I am doing badly. I sell the wrong stocks, hold onto the wrong stocks and bottom fish in the wrong stocks." I know how he feels.

A couple of months ago, when the current crisis of confidence began, I sold off some of my shares in Telecom Plus, a utility company. I reasoned that people had been pushing the price up because it was a relatively safe bet in uncertain times but really the shares were now somewhat overrated. I sold when the shares had fallen a little and they have since risen, even above the level in July – a magnificent outperformance. Thank goodness I sold only a minority of my holding.

Right now the outlook for the markets seems to depend more on politicians than I can ever remember it doing before. They are often referred to on radio and television as "leaders", which I am beginning to find slightly risible. It is apparent that this bunch of "leaders" firstly does not really know what to do and secondly, to the extent that they have got ideas of what to do, their ideas are all different. It has a bit of a feel of the doomed Weimar Republic.

RELATED ARTICLES

• Can investors unearth bargains amid the ruins? 
  24 Sep 2011
• Shares with European potential 
  23 Sep 2011
• Fidelity: 'At times like these, investors should remember the strong get stronger' 
  23 Sep 2011
• Cash in on destruction 
  22 Sep 2011

Of course it is not surprising that nothing can easily be done when the euro is a single currency without a single country running it.

Nevertheless, at any moment an announcement could conceivably be made which will overcome the widespread fear and distrust. If that happens, the market could rise so fast that you would not be able to get any money into it. But if the "leaders" continue to dribble out half-hearted rescues that don't work, the market could fall further. It's up to those "leaders".

Despite all the uncertainty and volatility, I have been buying some shares in the past month, bringing my cash down from about 14pc of my portfolio to 10pc.

One notion of mine has been to secure some of the fabulous dividend yields that are currently available. I half-think "forget about the share prices, just focus on the whopping dividend income".

Apparently investors in the United States have had the same thought and have been buying into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

ETFs are funds you can buy and sell like shares and give you exposure to a particular kind of investment – like gold, or a whole stock market, or whatever.

There is an equivalent one in Britain called iShares FTSE UK Dividend Plus, but it might be better to buy directly into big companies with handsome prospective yields, such as Vodafone (5.8pc with the price at 164p), Shell (5.2pc at £20.27) and British Land (5.5pc at 490p).

At least one piece of good news has turned up. It now looks likely that the Bank of England will finally put in place some quantitative easing either this month or next.

The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee openly raised the possibility last month and one of the members has said he almost voted for it then.

Some people have objected in the past that there is a danger it could fuel inflation. But wage inflation is dormant and commodity prices have now fallen back.

I am particularly aware of this since I have shares in a zinc mine and the price of this estimable metal has slipped from $1.12 in July to 86 cents earlier this week. Ouch!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares-and-stock-tips/8798796/Diary-of-a-private-investor-politicians-have-us-in-their-grip.html

Beng Hock not suicidal, psychiatrist tells RCI

Beng Hock not suicidal, psychiatrist tells RCI

UPDATED @ 06:54:22 AM 11-05-2011

By Boo Su-Lyn

May 10, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR, May 10 — Teoh Beng Hock was in the lowest risk group for suicide when he entered the custody of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), a forensic psychiatrist said in his report to a royal panel investigating the DAP political aide’s death today.

Dr Paul Mullen also said in his report to the royal commission of inquiry (RCI) investigating Teoh’s death that there was no reason for Teoh to conclude that he had shamed himself or betrayed his colleagues when he was questioned by the MACC.

“In brief, it is my opinion that Teoh Beng Hock was firmly in the lowest risk group for suicide when he was taken into MACC custody,” said Dr Mullen in his report, which was provided to the press today.

“His statement (to the MACC)... does not seem to clearly implicate him, or anyone else, in offences... this is not a context which, in my experience, leads to suicide in custody... there is nothing of which I have been made aware to explain panic and distress sufficient to drive him to conclude his honour had been irreparably tarnished,” added the Australian doctor.

Dr Mullen’s report came as the RCI concluded hearing testimony from 70 witnesses today in its bid to unravel the mysterious circumstances behind Teoh’s death.

Dr Mullen was not called to give oral testimony at the inquiry.

Teoh was found dead on July 16, 2009 on the fifth-floor corridor of Plaza Masalam in Shah Alam after he was questioned overnight by MACC officers at their then-Selangor headquarters on the 14th floor.

Teoh, 30, had been the political secretary to Selangor executive councillor Ean Yong Hian Wah, who is also the Seri Kembangan assemblyman from the DAP.

The graftbusters were investigating a claim that his boss was abusing state funds.

Dr Mullen, who has been a forensic psychiatrist for three decades, said his findings were based on several documents as well as joint interviews with local government psychiatrists Dr Badi’ah Yahya and Dr Nor Hayati Ali, Teoh’s fiancée, family members, friends, boss and colleagues.

Dr Mullen’s report as well as Dr Badi’ah’s and Dr Nor Hayati’s joint report were the first psychiatric evidence about Teoh’s mysterious plunge as no psychiatrists had previously testified at the coroner’s inquest into Teoh’s death that ruled out both suicide and homicide.

MACC lawyer Datuk Seri Muhammad Shafee Abdullah suggested recently that Teoh had committed “honour suicide” to protect his boss and the DAP from being exposed as corrupt.

But Ean Yong has dismissed Shafee’s suggestion, pointing out that the MACC had cleared him of abusing state funds.

MACC headquarters investigating officer (IO) Ahmad Shafik Abdul Rahman testified recently that Ean Yong was innocent of abusing state funds as all projects in his constituency were completed in 2008.

Ahmad Shafik said he could not conduct further investigations against Ean Yong as Teoh’s testimony was crucial, adding that the public prosecutor ordered investigations to be dropped due to lack of evidence.

Dr Mullen said Teoh was in the lowest risk group for suicide when he entered MACC custody. — Picture by Boo Su-Lyn

Dr Mullen, a professor at Monash University in Australia, said suicide rates were higher among those in custody, but pointed out that Teoh was a witness who was not charged with any offence.

“There is to my knowledge no evidence about, or even reported cases of, people who have killed themselves when having witness statements taken by authorities,” said the 66-year-old expert.

“If the Commission were also to accept the claims that Teoh Beng Hock was co-operative, not showing obvious distress, and willingly chose to remain in the MACC office, this, in my opinion, would virtually exclude the chances of Teoh Beng Hock having taken his own life,” he added.

He said the statements from MACC officers painted a picture of a co-operative witness who “was so relaxed about his presence in the offices that when told he could leave, he preferred to settle down for a sleep on a sofa.”

The forensic psychiatrist also highlighted various factors that slashed Teoh’s risk of suicide.

Dr Mullen said Teoh did not have previous suicide attempts or self-harm, or a family history of suicide.

He also pointed out that Teoh was employed, had plans to get married soon, enjoyed close family ties, had a range of friends and colleagues, had not suffered a recent bereavement and had no financial or gambling problems.

“Suicide is very uncommon among those with robust social networks in the form of close family ties, a range of friends, and positive relationships at work,” said Dr Mullen.

“Teoh Beng Hock showed no evidence for a lowered mood, let alone depression, prior to being taken into custody. In fact, he appears to have been more elated than usual because of the prospect of marriage and fatherhood,” the psychiatrist added.

Teoh’s fiancée Soh Cher Wei testified yesterday that they had planned to wed in October 2009 after she discovered early July 2009 that she was pregnant.

The white-haired Dr Mullen, who obtained his PhD when he was just 22 years old, also said Teoh’s personality did not suggest any increased risk of suicide.

“Enquiries made of those interviewed suggested that Teoh Beng Hock was a well-organised, tidy man with a tendency to be perfectionalistic,” he said.

“No evidence was found, however, for dysfunctional obsessional traits, or unusual rigidity... suicide is more common among rigid, obsessional individuals when they are placed under particular forms of stress, such as being arrested and charged with serious crimes,” he added.

He did not make a conclusion on a mystery note found in Teoh’s bag, saying that it was up to the commission to decide if the document allegedly written by Teoh was indeed a suicide note.

“If the commission does not give credence to the note being a suicide note, in my opinion, this greatly reduces the probability that Teoh Beng Hock killed himself,” said the psychiatric expert.

Teoh’s sister Lee Lan insisted yesterday that her brother did not write the note.

The mystery note stirred a controversy when it surfaced after the Attorney-General’s Chambers tendered it as evidence last August — some 10 months after the start of the coroner’s inquest into Teoh’s death.

The accuracy of the note’s court translation was also disputed after official interpreter Ting Chin Kin admitted to using free online service Google Translate to do the job.

Dr Badi’ah and Dr Nor Hayati concluded in their joint report, which was provided to the press, that Teoh had “both risk factors favouring him for suicide and protective factors that reduce his likely risk for suicide.”

They said Teoh appeared to be in a “fear-inducing situation” when MACC officers searched Ean Yong’s office, but pointed out that Teoh did not have a history of depression, suicide attempts or a family history of suicide.

Dr Badi’ah has been a forensic psychiatrist since 2002, while Dr Nor Hayati is the principal investigator of the National Suicide Registry and has been a psychiatrist for 11 years.

“In my opinion, prior to entering custody, Teoh Beng Hock was in a low risk group for suicide,” said Dr Mullen.

“If he did kill himself, in my opinion, things are likely to have occurred both to undermine his psychological stability and to frighten him literally to death,” he added.

RCI chairman Tan Sri James Foong said today that all parties were to hand in their submissions by May 25.

He added that the commission has to submit its report to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong by June 24 as the June 25 deadline falls on a Saturday.

The commission, which enlisted the help of Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) former chief investigator Michael Leslie Squires, had heard testimonies from forensic pathologists, chemists, MACC and police officers, MACC witnesses, Teoh’s fiancée, family members, friends, boss and colleagues.

The RCI was tasked to uncover the circumstances behind Teoh’s fatal plunge and to determine if there was any impropriety in MACC’s investigation against Ean Yong.

Among the testimonies at the RCI, which were not heard at the inquest, were by two MACC officers who said they were instructed to cover up the role of then-Selangor MACC deputy director Hishamuddin Hashim in the probe against Ean Yong.

MACC assistant superintendent Azeem Hafeez Jamaluddin had said Hishamuddin had ordered him to testify that the operation was led by Selangor MACC investigation unit head Hairul Ilham Hamzah instead.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/beng-hock-not-suicidal-psychiatrist-tells-rci/

'Itu bukan Anwar', kata Wan Azizah

'Itu bukan Anwar', kata Wan Azizah

Isteri Anwar yang juga presiden PKR, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail kata video itu merupakan "bukti paling jelas" bahawa suaminya bukanlah lelaki yang mengadakan hubungan seks dengan seorang pelacur itu.

Membaca satu kenyataan hari ini, wan Azizah berkata, keluarganya telah memutuskan untuk menonton video 
yang disiarkan di Internet itu dan mendapati jelas bahawa susuk badan lelaki berkenaan terlalu berbeza dengan susuk badan Anwar.

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/160648

Malaysians must be critical and analytical in their Political thinking. Which Party is more Progressive?

Guan Eng to Gerakan : Don't assume Penangites are stupid

A toast to Kit Siang's achievements

Thanks.

A winner, the best of the best, an anchor, a caring person, stubbornly optimistic.

You too have sacrificed and contributed a lot to a better Malaysia.

Happy Birthday.

Are these in our Sejarah textbooks? Perhaps, the general election is near.

Sunday January 23, 2011

Najib: Every race contributed to a successful Malaysia

By SIMON KHOO
simonkhoo@thestar.com.my

PEKAN: Malaysia is where it is today because of the contributions by all races to nation building, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said.

Without the participation of the Chinese and Indians in the talks for independence, the British may not have given it to Malaya (in 1957), the Prime Minister said.

“Many non-Malays also sacrificed their lives during the Japanese occupation and the Communist insurgency,” he said, adding that this must not be disputed and should be remembered.

A crush for oranges: Residents of Pekan in Pahang queuing up to receive free mandarin oranges at a function that was attended by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak yesterday. Najib, in his speech, said Malaysia is where it is today because of the contributions of all races to nation building.

Citing examples in the sports arena, Najib said the national football team that recently won the AFF Suzuki Cup took their instructions from coach K. Rajagopal, while badminton world No 1 Datuk Lee Chong Wei stood by his coach Datuk Misbun Sidek.

“These players are bonded by the spirit of 1Malaysia, transcending racial boundaries in their quest to achieve success.” he said at a function to present Mandarin oranges to the people here yesterday.

Earlier, at a presentation of aid to poor pupils at the Umno building, Najib said Malaysia has many success stories of poor people making it good in life to serve as role models for others.

“These success stories that can tug the heart strings of the people are about sons of fishermen, general workers, labourers and clerks.

“Within one generation, they have become successful entrepreneurs, corporate figures and administrative officers,” he said, adding that the Government would continue to help the needy to ensure there is social equality for all.

Najib, who is Pekan MP, said the Government would continue to uphold a system of social justice for all through proper education.

Later in his speech when launching the Malaysia Ex-Kemas Members Association here, Najib said with the advent of information technology, people were expected to be polished in computer applications.

Aid for poor pupils: Najib with recipients from various schools after presenting bicycles and schoolbags in Pekan yesterday. Looking on is Pahang Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Adnan Yaakob (light blue shirt). — Bernama

Asking people to change their mindset to move in tandem with mainstream development, he added that education was important as part of their struggles.

“We can only become a successful race if we adopt new ideas and technology.

“In this regard, Kemas, which was at the forefront to educate rural folks through ‘adult classes’ during the early independence years, must also evolve,” he said.

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/1/23/nation/7855476&sec=nation

Both sides should stop excessive politicking, says Mohd Shafie

Both sides should stop excessive politicking, says Mohd Shafie by Kong See Hoh PETALING JAYA (Jan 23, 2011): IN spite of the many changes made by Umno, including political transformation, the majority of the Chinese still hold the notion that the party has not changed much. Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal This, according to Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, is because the Opposition has politicised a lot of issues. Speaking to Sin Chew Daily in an interview published today, Mohd Shafie said for Malaysia to progress, parties from both sides of the political divide should not play politics too much, instead they should work towards better governing states and the country. They should not politicise everything or use political activities to achieve their aim on issues that concern the interests of the people, he said. Mohd Shafie, who is rural and regional development minister, said currently there is too much politicking for personal interest. He said the Chinese community should not believe in what these politicians say, including their claims that the government has not managed the country’s economy well, which is not true. He pointed out that the majority of those who benefited from the stock market are Chinese, and had government not implemented various measures that favoured economic growth, the Chinese businessmen would not have benefited the way they did. He said that in everything the government has done, the government hoped to see the results benefit all races. The government’s policies are not aimed at pleasing a particular community but to benefit all, and everything is done to ensure they are fair to all communities, he said. On excessive politicking, he cited the Selangor state secretary saga as an example how the Opposition politicised issues resulting in a change in people’s perception of the federal government. “(If we) use political activities to achieve our aims in everything, no one will benefit in the end. “We hope parties from both sides of the political divide would reduce political play, and serve the country and the people (instead). Mohd Shafie also urged non-Malays not to be overly sensitive to certain remarks uttered by some Umno leaders, saying it does not help the situation if they over-emotionalise matters. Of course, he said, leaders should mind their language and be mindful of other races’ feelings. Asked if the Chinese community should not be too serious over certain extreme remarks, Mohd Shafie said such remarks should be viewed seriously but not over-emotionalised. “We must, at all times, consider what is most important to the people. We can take other people’s warnings as reminders,” he said. http://www.thesundaily.com/article.cfm?id=56670

“There is no country in this modern world that can survive if its people are segregated and broken into classes like what we are practising today."

Malays given enough privileges to excel, says Zaid

By Clara Chooi

January 19, 2011

Party president Zaid Ibrahim said Kita would not espouse the belief that the Malay community deserves more rights than other races.

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 – Kita president Datuk Zaid Ibrahim claimed today that his party would help save the Malays from complacency, pointing out that the community already has sufficient rights and privileges to excel.

The former Umno politician said in his keynote address at Kita’s grand launch this morning that the party would not condone the belief that the community deserved more rights than other races simply because of its constitutional position.

“For the Malays, Kita will not mislead you with a false sense of security by making you believe that you have more rights than the other races.

“We will tell you that you already have enough rights and privileges to excel; what you need is to improve your skills and competitiveness to face this 21st century,” he said when outlining Kita’s ideals during the launch.

He pledged that Kita would adhere to Article 153 of the Federal Constitution which underscores the special positions of the Malays but warned that the provision should not be used as a tool to discriminate against others.

“There is no country in this modern world that can survive if its people are segregated and broken into classes like what we are practising today.

“Kita will not allow the provision to be abused and steps needed to achieve the objective of the provision will be presented to Parliament,” he said.

Zaid, who recently quit PKR, added that Kita could help the Malays protect the community’s name by granting equal education opportunities to all and offering the best teachers to help them hone their skills.

“You will become successful individuals in the true meaning of the word. You will not need to unsheathe your keris so that others fear you or champion your origins in order to seem special.

“You will no longer be a mere definition in the Federal Constitution. You will be a true Malay in the Malaysian community at large,” he said.

Zaid also claimed Kita would ensure that Muslims achieved spiritual excellence as promised in Islam, pointing out that no one could strip a person of his or her religion.

“Islam must be led and nurtured by Islamic intellectuals and scholars with honest hearts and are merciful and compassionate as Islam is a caring religion.

“Bureaucrats, those who merely work for salaries and politicians are only able to pollute the good name of Islam by implementing regulations that curb and confuse and bring harm to religious harmony and tolerance in the country,” he said.

Zaid added that if the nation truly accepted the sovereignty of the Federal Constitution as its driving principle, it would be easier to find solutions to the many racial and religious conflicts faced by the country.

“Issues involving houses of worship, conflict over the jurisdictions of the civil and Syariah courts and many other matters continue to remain unresolved today.

“Islam, as the official religion, will continue to be respected and be restored to its rightful position if it is no longer politicised,” he said.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/malays-given-enough-privileges-to-excel-says-zaid/