Saturday, 25 February 2012

Why Warren Buffett thinks that ROE is Important


Warren Buffett believes that the return that a company gets on its equity is one of the most important factors in making successful stock investments.

DEFINING EQUITY


Benjamin Graham defines stockholders equity as:


‘The interest of the stockholders in a company as measured by the capital and surplus.’


CALCULATING OWNER’S EQUITY

Investors can think of stockholders equity like this. An investor who buys a business for $100,000 has an equity of $100,000 in that investment. This sum represents the total capital provided by the investor.

If the investor then makes a net profit each year from the business of $10,000, the return on equity is 10%:
10,000 x 100
  100,000


If however the investor has borrowed $50,000 from a bank and pays an annual amount of interest to the bank of $3500, the calculations change. The total capital in the business remains at $100,000 but the equity in the business (the capital provided by the investor) is now only $50,000 ($100,000 - $50,000).

The profit figures also change. The net profit now is only $6500 ($10,000 - $3,500).

The return on capital (total capital employed, equity plus debt) remains at 10%. The return on equity is different and higher. It is now 13%:
6,500 x 100
  50,000

The approach to financing its operations by a company can obviously affect the returns on equity shown by that company.


WHY WARREN BUFFETT THINKS THAT RETURN ON EQUITY IS IMPORTANT

Just as a 10% return on a business is, all other things being equal, better than a 5% return, so too with corporate rates of returns on equity. 
  • Also, a higher return on equity means that surplus funds can be invested to improve business operations without the owners of the business (stockholders) having to invest more capital. 
  • It also means that there is less need to borrow.

When a company should buy back shares


So, according to Warren Buffett, a company can add value to its shares by buying some of them back:
  1. where it has surplus funds;
  2. where it can buy them back at a price below intrinsic value.
Warren Buffett has said on several occasions, in relation to Berkshire Hathaway, that the company will never buy back shares merely to bolster the share price or to stop a fall in the price.

Warren Buffett on Share Buybacks


BUYING BACK SHARES FOR THE RIGHT REASONS

Warren Buffett likes companies that buy back their shares if they do so for the right reasons, and if they pay less than the intrinsic value of the share. . A share buy back that is designed simply to inflate or support the value of the shares is not a good reason.

WARREN BUFFETT ON BUYBACKS

In 1999, Warren Buffett said this:

‘Now, repurchases are all the rage, but are all too often made for an unstated and, in our view, ignoble reason, to pump up or support the stock price. The shareholder who chooses to sell today, of course, is benefited by any buyer, whatever his origin or motives. But the continuing shareholder is penalised by repurchases above intrinsic value. Buying dollar bills for $1.10 is not good business for those who stick around.’

Share Buy-Back


BUYING BACK SHARES

Sometimes a company has surplus funds that it does not need for its operations. It can use those funds to expand its operations (eg buy new businesses) or it can distribute them to stockholders. One way of distributing funds to shareholders is to have a share buy back, wherein the company buys back some of its shares from existing stockholders.


EXAMPLE OF A SHARE BUY-BACK

Company A has 100 shares issued and makes a profit of $50. This means a shareholder is getting a return of 50 cents a share ($50/100). This is the Earnings per Share or EPS. If the share sells on the stock exchange for 15 times its EPS, a share has a value of $7.50.

Suppose that the company buy back 25 shares. A shareholder who retains their shares now earns 67 cents ($50/75) on each share held. If the share sells on the stock exchange for 15 times its EPS, a share has a value of $10.

STICKING TO WHAT YOU KNOW


CORE BUSINESSES

Warren Buffett likes to invest in companies where management focuses on activities that are within the expertise of the company and not wander off and spend shareholders’ money in going into areas that they know little about.

Keeping a company on track is obviously an attribute of sound company management and is a sound investment principle.

UNDERSTANDING THE BUSINESS

This is really just an extension of Warren Buffett’s investment principle that one should not invest in a company whose business one does not understand. If it applies to direct investment, it also applies to indirect investment and an investor is better off investing in a company that uses its capital in areas of its own expertise.

Investors should Stay with What They Know


KNOWING A COMPANY

Knowing a company involves research as well as personal experience and successful investors approach share investment the way that they would the purchase of a business.

They buy a business in an industry area that they know or that they have learned about, they investigate the financials, they look at how the business operated in the past, they weigh up future potential, and they then make a reasoned decision to buy at the price offered or not buy.
Just as the cobbler should stick to his last, investors should stay with what they know. They should not stray into areas beyond their expertise. As Warren Buffett said in 1992:

‘What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but rather how realistically they define what they don’t know.’

Robert Hagstrom has looked extensively at Warren Buffett’s investments over the years and agrees that Buffett has made it his business to understand the business of the companies where he puts the money of Berkshire Hathaway. According to Hagstrom, Buffett:

‘understands the revenues, expenses, cash flow, labor relations flexibility and capital-allocation needs of each of Berkshire’s holdings.’

Hagstrom argues that the prudent individual investor should do no less.

Why Warren Buffet does not Invest in Companies he does NOT Understand


COMPLEX COMPANIES


Take however, a company like Unilever NV. This is a corporation that has been around a long time, has a worldwide reputation and market, and is successful. But how easy is it to understand the way it operates?

According to Value Line, it has two parent holding companies, one in Great Britain, and one in The Netherlands. It operates as one company but each of the two holding companies owns shares in operating subsidiaries. The director component of both holding companies is the same and there are agreements that equalise dividends and set trading ratios for their respective shares. The business may be good but this complex structure is just too difficult for the average person to understand.


WHY WARREN BUFFETT DOES NOT INVEST IN MICROSOFT

As Warren Buffett has said, he knows and admires Bill Gates and the Microsoft Corporation but has never invested in it because he does not understand the way that the company works.

Warren Buffett and Keynes


WARREN BUFFETT AND KEYNES


In Warren Buffett’s own words, he did not invest in these companies, and many other successful investments, without acquiring as full a knowledge as possible about the company, its business, its management, and its financial position. He has advised individual investors to do the same, as did the great economist and successful investor John Maynard Keynes.

‘As time goes on, I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about …’ - Jim Keynes

What Warren Buffett says about Buying a Business


BUYING THE BUSINESS

Warren Buffett believes, as did Benjamin Graham, that investors should look upon share investment as buying a part of a business. Investors should take the same approach to buying shares as they would if they were buying a business. The only difference is that instead of buying the whole of the business, or a partnership in the business, they are only buying a tiny share.
A prudent investor never buys a business that they do not understand. Similarly, a prudent share investor should never buy shares in a company, whose business they do not understand.

WHAT WARREN BUFFET SAYS ABOUT BUYING A BUSINESS

In 1977, Warren Buffett told shareholders in Berkshire Hathaway that their company would only invest in a business that the directors could understand.. He has repeated this message many times since. In 1992, he expanded on this theme:

‘[W]e try to stick with businesses we believe we understand. That means they must be relatively simple and stable in character. If a business is complex or subject to constant change we’re not smart enough to predict future cash flows. Incidentally that shortcoming doesn’t bother us.’

What Warren Buffett says about Non-Commodity (Franchise) Companies


NON-COMMODITY COMPANIES

Warren Buffett prefers to invest in non-commodity companies - companies whose products or services are unique or special in some way.

Here customers either need the product, or there is no real competitor, or the reputation of the product is such that people will keep buying it. Suppliers and distributors have no choice but to stock the product or people will go elsewhere.

Generally, but not always, either the product will be a brand name (eg Coke, Gillette), the company will be a brand name (H & R Block) or the company will be in a monopoly situation or monopolistic cartel.


WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUT NON-COMMODITY COMPANIES


Warren Buffett illustrated this difference in 1982:
‘[There is the] constant struggle of every vendor to establish special qualities of product or services. This works with candy bars (customers buy by brand name, not by asking for a "two-ounce candy bar") but doesn't work with sugar (how often do you hear, "I’ll have a cup of coffee with cream and C & H sugar, please").’