Sunday, 15 April 2012

Intrinsic Value Calculation

Inputs Default Input Values (used for calculations)
Your Investment Horizon in Years (Max of 10): 5 5
Most Recent Reported EPS (Earnings Per Share): #N/A 0.1151
Projected EPS Growth Rate: #N/A 15.00%
Projected Average Annual PE Ratio: NA 10
Average Dividend Payout Ratio: #VALUE! 35%
Desired Minimum Annual Return: NA 10%
Current Stock Price NA $1.40


Calculations
Estimated Earnings Per Share after year 5: $0.23
Forecasted Stock Price after 5 Years: $2.32
Total Estimated Dividends for the next 5 Years: $0.08
Total Estimated Stock Value after 5 Years: $2.40
Current Share Price: $1.40
Estimated Intrinsic Value: $1.49
Estimated Margin of Safety: -6.27%


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Inputs Default Input Values (used for calculations)
Your Investment Horizon in Years (Max of 10): 5 5
Most Recent Reported EPS (Earnings Per Share): #N/A 0.1151
Projected EPS Growth Rate: #N/A 10.00%
Projected Average Annual PE Ratio: NA 10
Average Dividend Payout Ratio: #VALUE! 35%
Desired Minimum Annual Return: NA 15%
Current Stock Price NA $1.40

Calculations
Estimated Earnings Per Share after year 5: $0.19
Forecasted Stock Price after 5 Years: $1.85
Total Estimated Dividends for the next 5 Years: $0.06
Total Estimated Stock Value after 5 Years: $1.92
Current Share Price: $1.40
Estimated Intrinsic Value: $0.95
Estimated Margin of Safety: 31.87%
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http://smartstockresearch.com/InvestingBasics/Articles/Stock-Analysis-Spreadsheet.html

More Topics 
How To Research A Stock 
How To Generate Investing Ideas 
What To Know Before You Begin Investing 
Why Invest Now? 
What Type of Investor are You? 
Is Investing in Stocks Like Gambling? 
What Does a Stock's Price Tell You? 
How To Read a Balance Sheet 
How To Read an Income Statement 
How To Read a Cash Flow Statement 
Why Read the Annual Report? 
Should You Be An Investor or Trader?

Online Investing Guide 
Where to Learn How To Invest 
Online Brokers 
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Value Investing - One of the best known stock-picking methods. Find companies trading below their inherent worth.

 Value Investment  


Value investing is one of the best known stock-picking methods. The concept is  simple: find companies trading below their inherent worth.

Benjamin Graham is considered the first proponent of value investing . He assumed that two values are attached to a company. The first is the market price, the value of the company on the stock exchange. The second is a company’s business value.

Business value or intrinsic value is based on its ‘real time’ value in the event of a merger with a competitor or in a takeover situation. Alternatively the owners may consider the business value as the amount that could be achieved by breaking up the company and selling all its assets.

The value investor looks for bargain price stocks: stocks selling at a low price but with strong fundamentals - including earnings, dividends, book value, and cash flow. Companies that are undervalued by the market have the potential to increase in share price when the market corrects itself.

Value investing doesn't mean just buying any stock that declines and therefore seems "cheap" in price. Value investors have to do their homework and be confident that they are picking a company that is cheap given its high quality. It's important to distinguish the difference between a value company and a company that simply has a declining price. For example, in the past year Company A has been trading at about $25 per share but suddenly drops to $10 per share. This does not automatically mean that the company is selling at a bargain. All we know is that the company is less expensive now than it was last year. The drop in price could be a result of the market responding to a fundamental problem in the company. To be a real bargain, this company must have fundamentals healthy enough to imply it is worth more than $10 - value investing always compares current share price to intrinsic value not to historic share prices.

One of the greatest investors of all time, Warren Buffett, has proven that value investing can work: his value strategy took the stock of Berkshire Hathaway, his holding company, from $12 a share in 1967 to $70,900 in 2002. The company beat the S&P 500's performance by about 13.02% on average annually! Although Buffett does not strictly categorize himself as a value investor, many of his most successful investments were made on the basis of value investing principles.

We should emphasize that the value investing mentality sees a stock as the vehicle by which a person becomes an owner of a company - to a value investor profits are made by investing in quality companies, not by trading. Because their method is about determining the worth of the underlying asset, value investors pay no mind to the external factors affecting a company, such as market volatility or day-to-day price fluctuations. These factors are not inherent to the company, and therefore are not seen to have any effect on the value of the business.   In the long run, stock prices will reflect this business value, but in the short and medium term, market prices are often far above or below it. 






http://www.trade4rich.com/Value.html

Value Investing - Mr. Market

Mr. Market  


Benjamin Graham used an imaginary investor called Mr. Market to demonstrate his point that a wise investor chooses investments on their fundamental value rather than on the opinions of others or the direction of the markets.

Let's say you own a business and have a partner. His name is "Mr. Market." Your business is a good one. It has given you a high return on what you have invested in the business. The only problem is that your partner, Mr. Market, is kind of a strange dude. He's very emotional. Some days he's on a very euphoric high and other days he's very depressed.

Mr. Market has a curious habit. Every day he comes into the office and offers to sell you his share of the business or buy yours. However, because he is so moody, if he happens to be euphoric on a particular day, he wants a very high price for his share. On the other hand, if he's in one of his down moods, he's willing to sell out for a pittance.

The interesting thing about Mr. Market is that he doesn't seem to care whether or not you choose to buy his interest or sell yours. He doesn't get his feelings hurt. You can do whatever you want. It's completely up to you. He just keeps coming in the office every day, offering to buy or sell at wildly different prices. It's always the same good business it has always been. That doesn't change. It's just that, depending on his mood, some days Mr. Market is enthusiastic about the business and other days he's very pessimistic.

Since you know what the business is worth, you can just listen to Mr. Market's offer every day and decide if his offer is a good one or one you want to turn down. Even though Mr. Market's moods might be difficult to get used to, he's actually a great business partner to have.

That's exactly the way you should view the stock market. Choose your favorite business that happens to be one of the 10,000 or so publicly traded stocks. Look at the stock tables in the paper and notice the yearly high and low price for that stock. You'll find that there can be a dramatic difference between the high and the low during a single year. The business hasn't changed. It's just the mood of Mr. Market that changes.





http://www.trade4rich.com/Market.html

Value Investing - Margin of Safety

Safety Margin  


Consider a real-life example of a margin of safety. Say you're planning a pyrotechnics show, which will include flames and explosions. You have concluded with a high degree of certainty that it's perfectly safe to stand 100 feet from the center of the explosions. But to be absolutely sure no one gets hurt, you implement a margin of safety by setting up barriers 125 feet from the explosions.

This use of a margin of safety works similarly in value investing. It's simply the practice of leaving room for error in your calculations of intrinsic value. A value investor may be fairly confident that a company has an intrinsic value of $30 per share. But in case his or her calculations are a little too optimistic, he or she creates a margin of safety/error by using the $26 per share in their scenario analysis. The investor may find that at $15 the company is an attractive investment, or he or she may find that at $24, the company is not attractive enough. If the stock's intrinsic value is lower than the investor estimated, the margin of safety would help prevent this investor from paying too much for the stock.


http://www.trade4rich.com/SaftyMargin.html

Value Investing - Important Financial Ratios

Important Ratios

The following is a simple discussion for the most important ratios a value investor should consider: 1. PE ratio, 2. PEG ratio, 3. Net profit margin , 4. Return on assets (ROA) , 5. Return on Equity (ROE), 6. Debt/Equity Ratio , 7. Current Ratio.


1). PE Ratio (P/E) 

Price/earnings ratio is the most common measure of how expensive a stock is. The P/E ratio is equal to a stock's market capitalization divided by its after-tax earnings over a 12-month period, usually the trailing period but occasionally the current or forward period.

In ordinary periods, most stocks trade between a 10-25 P/E ratio. Stocks with higher forecast earnings growth will usually have a higher P/E, and those expected to have lower earnings growth will in most cases have a lower P/E. Peter Lynch thinks the P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal to its growth rate.

The bottom line on Price/earnings ratio for the best value stock is: PE Ratio < 20


2). PE Ratio To Growth Ratio (PEG)

The PEG ratio is a valuation metric for determining the relative trade-off between the price of a stock, the earnings generated per share (EPS), and the company's expected growth. PEG is equal to P/E ratio divided by EPS growth ratio .

In general, the P/E ratio is higher for a company with a higher growth rate. Thus using just the P/E ratio would make high-growth companies overvalued relative to others. It is assumed that by dividing the P/E ratio by the earnings growth rate, the resulting ratio is better for comparing companies with different growth rates.

The PEG ratio is considered to be a convenient approximation. It was popularized by Peter Lynch. He thinks a fairly valued company will have its PEG equal to 1. So a lower ratio is "better" (cheaper) and a higher ratio is "worse" (expensive).

The bottom line on PEG ratio for the best value stock is: PEG < 1.

3). Net Profit Margin 

Net profit margin is a key method of measuring profitability which is calculated as net income divided by revenues, or net profits divided by sales . It can be interpreted as the amount of money the company gets to keep for every dollar of revenue. A 20% profit margin, for example, means the company has a net income of $0.20 for each dollar of sales.

When a company has a high profit margin, it usually means that it also has one or more advantages over its competition. Companies with high net profit margins have better control over its costs compared to its competitors and have a bigger cushion to protect themselves during the hard times. Companies with low profit margins can get wiped out in a downturn.

The bottom line on net profit margin for the best value stock is: Net profit margin > 10%.

4). Return on Assets (ROA) 


ROA gives an idea as to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. An indicator of how profitable a company is relative to its total assets.

ROA for public companies can vary substantially and will be highly dependent on the industry. This is why when using ROA as a comparative measure, it is best to compare it against a company's previous ROA numbers or the ROA of a similar company.

For example, if one company has a net income of $1 million and total assets of $5 million, its ROA is 20%; however, if another company earns the same amount but has total assets of $10 million, it has an ROA of 10%. Based on this example, the first company is better at converting its investment into profit.

Management's most important job is to make wise choices in allocating its resources. Anybody can make a profit by throwing a ton of money at a problem, but very few managers excel at making large profits with little investment.

The bottom line on return on assets for the best value stock is: Return on assets > 10%.

5). Return on Equity (ROE) 

ROE is viewed as one of the most important financial ratios. It measures a firm's efficiency at generating profits from every dollar of net assets (assets minus liabilities), and shows how well a company uses investment dollars to generate earnings growth. ROE is equal to a fiscal year's net income divided by total equity .

Buffett always looks at ROE to see whether or not a company has consistently performed well in comparison to other companies in the same industry. Looking at the ROE in just the last year isn't enough. The investor should view the ROE from the past five to 10 years to get a good idea of historical performance.

The bottom line on Return on Equity for the best value stock is: Return on Equity > 15%.


6). Debt to Equity Ratio

The debt/equity ratio is a key characteristic Buffett considers carefully. Buffett prefers to see a small amount of debt so that earnings growth is being generated from shareholders' equity as opposed to borrowed money.

The debt/equity ratio is a measure of a company's financial leverage calculated by dividing its total liabilities by stockholders' equity. It indicates what proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets.

If a lot of debt is used to finance increased operations (high debt to equity), the company could potentially generate more earnings than it would have without this outside financing. If this were to increase earnings by a greater amount than the debt cost (interest), then the shareholders benefit as more earnings are being spread among the same amount of shareholders. However, the cost of this debt financing may outweigh the return that the company generates on the debt through investment and business activities and become too much for the company to handle. This can lead to bankruptcy, which would leave shareholders with nothing.

The bottom line on debt/equity ratio for the best value stock is: Debt/Equity Ratio < 1.

7). Current Ratio 

The ratio is mainly used to give an idea of the company's ability to pay back its short-term liabilities with its short-term assets (cash, inventory, receivables). The higher the current ratio, the more capable the company is of paying its obligations.

A ratio under 1 suggests that the company would be unable to pay off its obligations if they came due at that point. While this shows the company is not in good financial health, it does not necessarily mean that it will go bankrupt - as there are many ways to access financing - but it is definitely not a good sign.

The current ratio can give a sense of the efficiency of a company's operating cycle or its ability to turn its product into cash. Companies that have trouble getting paid on their receivables or have long inventory turnover can run into liquidity problems because they are unable to alleviate their obligations. Because business operations differ in each industry, it is always more useful to compare companies within the same industry.

The bottom line on current ratio for the best value stock is: Current Ratio > 1


http://www.trade4rich.com/Ratio.html

Value Investing - Stock Price

Stock Price  


You can’t buy any stock at any price, right? The price you pay is ultimately determines your rate of return. You want to buy cheap to maximize your earnings.

The actual stock prices consist of two parts: 1) intrinsic value and 2) variance from the human emotion and dynamic market environments. So there are two basic methods to determine the price of a stock: 1) Fundamental Analysis and 2) Technical Analysis.

  • Fundamental Analysis determines intrinsic stock prices by projecting future earnings and then applying an acceptable return on    investment to calculate the stock price. This approach is used by most traditional investment analysts.
  • Technical Analysis applies statistical charts and techniques to historical stock prices and volumes to identify the future stock price trend. It does not consider the fundamentals of the stock. The business, or economic environment as the influence of these factors is deemed to be already reflected in the stock price.


http://www.trade4rich.com/Price.html

Value Investing - Calculating Intrinsic Value

Calculating Intrinsic Value  


There are many ways to calculate the intrinsic value.  We'll just go over the most common used PE (Price to Earnings) stock valuation method to calculate the intrinsic value.   Price/earnings ratio is the most common measure of how expensive a stock is.

P/E ratio = P / EPS         P = Current Market Price,        EPS = Earnings per Share

The higher the P/E ratio, the more the market is willing to pay for each dollar of annual earnings. Companies that are currently unprofitable (that is, ones which have negative earnings) don't have a P/E ratio at all.  In general, the P/E ratio is higher for a company with a higher growth rate.Peter Lynch thinks the P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal to its growth rate.

If we know a stock  P/E ratio and its EPS, we can calculate its value by the following formula:      

Value = P/E * EPS

For example, if stock ABC  long term EPS growth rate is 15%; and next year EPS estimation is $1.8, we can suppose its next year fair PE equal to 15, and its next year’s fair value is 15 * 1.8 = 27. Now that you know what the stock is "worth", you can compare its current stock price with its value to decide if it is worth to buy, sell or hold. For example, if ABC was trading at $20, you would consider it undervalued because its trading at a price that is less than its value of $27. However, if it was trading at $35 per share, it would be considered overvalued. 





http://www.trade4rich.com/Calculation.html

Value Investing - Peter Lynch's Formula

 Peter Lynch's Formula  Peter Lynch 's astounding record makes him the greatest mutual fund manager in history. In his book One Up on Wall Street, Lynch gives a simple, straight-forward explanation as to how he does a quick and dirty valuation of a firm's growth versus its stock price. Here's just a short quote explaining how he does it.

The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate ... If the P/E of Coca-Cola is 15, you'd expect the company to be growing at about 15 percent a year, etc. But if the P/E ratio is less than the growth rate, you may have found yourself a bargain. A company, say, with a growth rate of 12 percent a year ... and a P/E ratio of 6 is a very attractive prospect. On the other hand, a company with a growth rate of 6 percent a year and a P/E ratio of 12 is an unattractive prospect and headed for a comedown.

In general, a P/E ratio that's half the growth rate is very positive, and one that's twice the growth rate is very negative.

Lynch's formula is as follows:

Intrinsic Value = EPS * G

EPS = Earnings per Share , G = Long Term EPS Growth Rate 


http://www.trade4rich.com/Lynch.html

Value Investing - Benjamin Graham's Formula

Benjamin Graham's Formula   


In The Intelligent InvestorBenjamin Graham describes a formula he used to value stocks. He disregarded complicated calculations and kept his formula simple. In his words: 
"Our study of the various methods has led us to suggest a foreshortened and quite simple formula for the evaluation of growth stocks, which is intended to produce figures fairly close to those resulting from the more refined mathematical calculations."

His formula is as follows:

Intrinsic Value = EPS * (8.5 + 2* G)

EPS = Earnings per Share, G = Long Term EPS Growth Rate

This formula has little practical value to most value investors. A company with an expected growth rate of 10% in EPS could have a P/E (Price/Earnings) of 28.5 to be considered a buy. Most value investors would reject it. However, Graham also preached Margin of Safety. Therefore, taking this formula and allowing a 50% Margin of Safety you arrive at a P/E of 14.25 . Many value investors would take a hard look at a company with a 14.5 P/E growing earnings at 10% a year.

The formula is efficient and simplistic but has its limits:  the model doesn’t work for every stock. It should never be used in isolation. The investor must take into account many other factors such as current asset value, debt to equity ratio etc. 


http://www.trade4rich.com/Benjamin.html

Comment: Warren Buffett thought Benjamin Graham was not at his best when he came up with the various formulae to value stocks.

Value Investing - Warren Buffett's Methodology

Warren Buffett's Methodology  Warren Buffett descends from the Benjamin Graham school of value investing. He takes this value investing approach to another level. He chooses stocks solely on the basis of their overall potential as a company - he looks at each as a whole. Holding these stocks as a long-term play, Buffett seeks not capital gain but ownership in quality companies extremely capable of generating earnings. When Buffett invests in a company, he isn't concerned with whether the market will eventually recognize its worth; he is concerned with how well that company can make money as a business.

Brief summary Buffett's methodology:
1. Has the company consistently performed well? 
Sometimes return on equity (ROE) is referred to as "stockholder's return on investment". It reveals the rate at which shareholders are earning income on their shares. Buffett always looks at ROE to see whether or not a company has consistently performed well in comparison to other companies in the same industry.
2. Has the company avoided excess debt? 
The debt/equity ratio is another key characteristic Buffett considers carefully. Buffett prefers to see a small amount of debt so that earnings growth is being generated from shareholders' equity as opposed to borrowed money.
3. Are profit margins high? Are they increasing? 
The profitability of a company depends not only on having a good profit margin but also on consistently increasing this profit margin. To get a good indication of historical profit margins, investors should look back at least five years. A high profit margin indicates the company is executing its business well, but increasing margins means management has been extremely efficient and successful at controlling expenses.
4. How long has the company been public? 
Buffett typically considers only companies that have been around for at least 10 years. It makes sense that one of Buffet's criteria is longevity: value investing means looking at companies that have stood the test of time but are currently undervalued.
5. Do the company's products rely on a commodity? 
Buffett sees this question as an important one. He tends to shy away (but not always) from companies whose products are indistinguishable from those of competitors, and those that rely solely on a commodity such as oil and gas. If the company does not offer anything different than another firm within the same industry, Buffett sees little that sets the company apart. Any characteristic that is hard to replicate is what Buffett calls a company's economic moat, or competitive advantage. The wider the moat, the tougher it is for a competitor to gain market share.
6. Is the stock selling at a 25% discount to its real value? 
Buffett's most important skill is determining whether a company is undervalued. To do this, an investor must determine the intrinsic value of a company by analyzing a number of business fundamentals, including earnings, revenues and assets. And a company's intrinsic value is usually higher (and more complicated) than its liquidation value - what a company would be worth if it were broken up and sold today. The liquidation value doesn't include intangibles such as the value of a brand name, which is not directly stated on the financial statements.   Once Buffett determines the intrinsic value of the company as a whole, he compares it to its current market capitalization - the current total worth (price). If his measurement of intrinsic value is at least 25% higher than the company's market capitalization, Buffett sees the company as one that has value to buy.



http://www.trade4rich.com/Buffett.html