Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS)***** Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods***** Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.
Monday, 16 April 2012
Sunday, 15 April 2012
7 Stock Investing Advices Warren Buffet Want You to Know
Good Stock Investing Advices
If you want to be as successful as Warren Buffet in stock investing, study each point thoroughly. Ignoring either one advice is enough to make you broke in stock market; simply because, in stock investing, due diligence counts. Intentionally not following the advice proves that you are not ready for investing; perhaps you are just looking for fast cash.
http://www.stock-investment-made-easy.com/stock-investing-advices.htmlThat All Beginners Need to Follow Religiously
Summarized Overview
In this article, you’ll find information on the stock investing ideas that Warren Buffet wants all stock investors to know, strategy he uses to maximise return, price of stocks that he willing to pay, key financial ratio that is so important to him, type of managers he loves, and kind of management he trusts.7 Stock Investing Advices for Beginners
This stock market investing advice will help you on how to pick stocks Warren Buffet way.Stock Investing Advices #1: Simple Business Model
It is not just about simplicity, but also something that you can understand. You must clearly define your circle of competence and stay where you are. It can be something that you learn while you are working or something that you spend time on to understand the business operation. To most, oil and gas business can be seen as so simple and yet very profitable, but to those who works in that industry will tell you, it is not as easy as what you think. Do you know why this is so important?
When come to investing, predicting what will happen tomorrow is something that you can’t live without. Forecasting what the future will be is the only way you can estimate how much return you’ll be getting later on. So, if you really understand the business inside out, you can project how the company perform 30 years down the road; take into consideration the national economy, competition from others and change in customers’ lifestyle.
Stock Investing Advices #2: Wide Economic Moat
Simply said, the company should serve valuable niche market with price inelastic products or services. Warren Buffet himself avoids regulated industries, commodity businesses as well as capital intensive industries.
He prefers stocks which can finance their capital from operating cash flow with less borrowing as well as has strong pricing power. Meaning, the company can price their products as much as they want. That is why, Warren Buffet love ‘franchise’, for example, Furniture Mart (the lowest cost in the industry), The Washington Post (market dominance and leader), Coke (strong brand name) and Candies (premium priced and high quality products that serve niche market).
Stock Investing Advices #3: Sustainable Growth
Serving the existing niche market is not enough. Instead, Warren Buffet wants the company to grow continuously and exponentially. Therefore, he looks for managements that have the ability to widen their economic moat consistently over the past years. Their businesses must be positioned where the demand able to grow continuously; Gillette is his best example. In the same time, always be ready for any possible trouble to the business, and most importantly back up your investment plan!
Stock Investing Advices #4: Excellent Capital Management
Every company that is listed in the stock market were entrusted to manage the business on behalf of their shareholders. Therefore, it is the managements’ duty to utilise the available resources for the highest possible return. To do this, they have to think and act like an owner and avoid the ‘institutional imperative’ style of management (think for themselves and don’t care what will happen 20 years down the road). When they don’t have the capability to create at least $1 value from $1 reinvestment, they should return the capital back to the shareholders by giving dividends or share buybacks.
Stock Investing Advices #5: Effective Management Team
Invest in company that have honest and capable managers. They should be so capable that Warren Buffet himself admires the way the managers do things. In Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting year 2000, he once said, “we want managers who tell the truth and tell themselves the truth, which is more important”. He loves cost conscious and frugal type of managers who are honest and integrity as well.
Stock Investing Advices #6: Superior ROE
Why ROE, and not the other financial ratios? Well, return on equity indicates how effective the management team convert the reinvested money into cash. The higher the return, the more profitably the company can reinvest its earnings. The faster the company able to turn the reinvested earnings into profits, the faster its value increases from one year to another. And mind you, it is a big challenge to the management to consistently create value for every penny they spend. To prove this, not many stocks that has 15 per cent ROE consistently for the past 20 or 30 years, worldwide.
Stock Investing Advices #7: Buy at Discount Price
Once the good stocks have been identified, now is the time to buy them. To make sure every $1 investment will generate $2000 in just 30 years, Warren Buffet have to make sure he buys the stock at the lowest price possible. In the same time, he has to be real that not to set very low price till he misses the golden opportunity. Thus, he keeps himself buying the stocks when the prices are offered at pre-determined margin of safety. The margin of safety can be as low as 80 per cent discount from the calculated intrinsic value. Even if the stocks are so profitable but the price is too high, he will just passes the opportunity to somebody else.
Best Time to Start Saving and Investing
Now is as a good time as any. The earlier you start, the bigger the nest egg you’ll have on retirement. But as we know, it is difficult to start in our twenties, as at that age we save for a car and then a house. And soon after, there will be educational expenses for kids.
But you cannot afford to keep postponing your financial planning for retirement. In order to have sufficient income to cover all those non-working years, you cannot leave the plan to the very last moment. If you decide to retire at 55, you need a nest egg that can generate an income for another 25 to 35 years.
How to Pick Good Stock for Financial Freedom During Retirement
Pick Good Stock
And You'll Be as Successful as Warren Buffet
Investing in stock for retirement is not a new idea, but many are still sceptical of becoming rich from stock market income. If you are one of them, you might hear bad things about making money in stock market, bad enough that keeps you away from putting any money in any stock. Instead, you should learn how to invest in stock if you determine to become financially free.
http://www.stock-investment-made-easy.com/pick-good-stock.htmlAnd You'll Be as Successful as Warren Buffet
Investing in stock for retirement is not a new idea, but many are still sceptical of becoming rich from stock market income. If you are one of them, you might hear bad things about making money in stock market, bad enough that keeps you away from putting any money in any stock. Instead, you should learn how to invest in stock if you determine to become financially free.
The truth is, many succeed and why you can’t?
Once you’d master all the techniques, you are on your way to make fortune way beyond your wildering dreams. And these financial ratios are enough to get you started.
Minimum 15% Earnings per Share Growth Rate (EPSGR)
EPSGR is an incremental value of Earnings Per Share (EPS) annually. Stock with the highest EPSGR means it grows the fastest in that year than the rest. Consistently performing 15 per cent EPSGR is an indication of outperform, and 20 per cent EPSGR is superb. High EPSGR for the past five to ten years shows that the company has excellent products with great demand. Growing demand will eventually give the company some leverage opportunity through economies of scale.
You can ride on their very strong growth by owning these stocks.
Minimum 15% Return on Equity (ROE)
Return on Equity (ROE) is a comparison of the stock’s net profits to its shareholders’ equity.
ROE indicates how much you can gain if you had decided to invest in the stock at that period. Companies with 15 per cent ROE or better is able to utilise their shareholders’ money for maximum profits. On the other hand, ROE of less than 10 per cent is a sign of lack in management and business skills. In fact, you shouldn’t buy stocks that have ROE 5 per cent or less. Virtually, you can get the same return with zero risk with cash deposit.After all, what’s the point of taking greater risk and yet get the same return?
Maximum 60% Debt to Equity Ratio (D/E)
D/E shows how much debt the company is taking to finance its business operation. You can calculate it by dividing the company’s total debt by the total number of available equity. You will know that the company is gearing too much if its D/E is greater than 1. This will give you an overview on how sensitive the stock is from the ever rising interest rates. Nevertheless, there are capital intensive industries which require huge financing sum from others due to their business nature.
Try to avoid these stocks to preserve your capital for the golden age.You must take into consideration these financial ratios in total to define how valuable your investment decision is. Picking one with dying business doesn’t make any sense to me, and the same should apply to you too! But don't forget to use some qualitative methods as well to pick good stock. After all, picking a good stock requires homework and effort. Trust me, it is well worth it.
Warren Buffet The Greatest Stock Market Investor
Warren Buffet
The Most Successful Stock Investor
Warren Buffet is undoubtedly the champion of all stock market investors. He is also referred to as the Oracle of Omaha, the town in which he resides in Nebraska.
Most importantly, he was spared by the dot-com meltdown in 2000. Buffet's ability to make decisions that are often opposite to the general market, is what makes him so special. His discipline and rational thinking are what separated him from other stock investors.
http://www.stock-investment-made-easy.com/warren-buffet.html
The Most Successful Stock Investor
Warren Buffet is undoubtedly the champion of all stock market investors. He is also referred to as the Oracle of Omaha, the town in which he resides in Nebraska.
Buffet's own 38 per cent stake in Berkshire Hathaway gives him a net worth of more than $36 billion, making him the second wealthiestman in the world; after Microsoft Tycoon, Bill Gates.
Unlike Peter Lynch,Buffet choose to live and work in a quiet city, staying away from from the hustle and bustle of Wall Street. According to record, he still lives in the modest house he bought for $31,500 40 years ago. He deliberately did this to keep away from the market. He does his own research and spends a lot of time thinking about his investment, just like any other discipline investors do.
He is so success that if you had put $1000 into Berkshire Hathaway back in 1965, you would have $5 million by now. Getting a staggering return of 42.6 per cent per year is not an easy job you know! He have been rewarded for being patient and thinking for long term.
"Stocks are simple. All you have to do is buying shares in a great business for less than the business worth, with respect to its management of the highest integrity and ability. Then you own those shares forever".
With early influence from his father, who was a stock broker, the young Warren Buffet started investing at an early age of about 11. He learnt that patience was a basic ingredient of successful investing and is a lesson not to be missed. Persuaded by his father to further his studies in investment, he met and worked for his mentor; Benjamin Graham "The Father of Modern Investment". It was Graham who got Buffet started in investing in a great way.
Warren Buffet was more interested in the company's management as a major factor when deciding to invest as opposed to the usual financial figures and statements. He would find the 'hidden gem' amongst the hay and accumulated his wealth patiently, and finally acquired Berkshire Hathaway. He has not sold a single share of this company, believing that the best place to invest is often at home.
"We emphasise in finding businesses that are predictable in a general way as to where they'll be in 10 or 15, or even 20 years".
Buffet preferred to invest in a boring but predictable industries, and bought the shares in an unexciting companies such as insurance, textile, food and beverage, of which he knew about firsthand. He had difficulty understanding technology stocks and had stayed away from them. As a result, his long term holdings in such stocks (e.g. Coca Cola, Gillette and American Express) yielded very handsome returns.
Most importantly, he was spared by the dot-com meltdown in 2000. Buffet's ability to make decisions that are often opposite to the general market, is what makes him so special. His discipline and rational thinking are what separated him from other stock investors.
And these are certainly the qualities that all investors wish to have.
Unlimited Profits From Good Stock Pick. Be Choosy and Consistent in Your Stock Selelction Criteria
Having A Good Stock Pick
Is Your First Step to Make Money in Stock Market
Summarized Overview
In this article you will find information about how to select a good stock quantitatively, why the strategy is so important and the critical key financial ratio.You will also find information on what is important in corporate annual reports.
Reasons to Have Good Stock Pick Strategy
Though there are thousands of stocks in stock market nowadays, not many of them are worth investing. In ever changing business environment, it is not easy for companies to remain profitable.
Worse, hardly any of them have shareholders' interest at heart. That is why, stocks represented by quality companies with effective management team is the key to get a higher investment return.
My Five Stock Screening Criteria
A good stock pick should've consider effective management as it is everything in sustainable stock investment. Thanks to financial ratios, picking good stock is just a simple math away.
Above average EPSGR and excellent ROE is my first stock screening criteria to filter rubbish stocks in the stock market. You can choose any figure which you feel comfortable. But, the figure 10 I chose is because:
- 10 per cent EPSGR shows that the company has reliable high demand products or services.
- 10 per cent ROE shows that the company are managing shareholders’ fund effectively.
- 10 consecutive years means the company able to survive the ups and down of the market, business cycles or the ever-increasing competition.
Past performance doesn't guarantee anything in the future for sure, but it is the best information for good stock pick. Should there be no changes in it's business foundation and it's management, profit will continue to be sustainable. For any circumstances, effective management will find ways to stay ahead of competition.
On top of that, i did consider:
- less than 0.6 debt to equity ratio (D/E) so that the company has manageable debt during economic crisis.
- high profit margin which shows the management really did a great job in reducing operating cost to maximise profits.
Be Consistent in Your Stock Selection Criteria
You have to be choosy and determined in selecting which stocks you'll be investing in.If you love speculative stocks, this method is not for you. Rumors and hot tips are just not my taste.
But if you are serious ininvesting for long-term, or value investing as what Warren Buffet did, this good stock pick can easily get rid of junk and worthless stocks straight from the beginning.
Test yourself, and see the result!
Why Invest in Stock Market When There are Other Investment Options?
Advantages of Stock Market Investing
Why I Love Stock Investing So Much
Summarized Overview
In this article you will find information about reasons to why invest in stock market than other investment options, historical stock market performace from 1926 to 1999, short comparison to other investment vehicles, namely mutual funds, real estate and own a business.Happy Investing!
Three Reasons Why I Invest in Stock Market
Advantages of Stock 1: Own Profitable Businesses
This is the major reason to why invest in stock market. Building own business might be your ambition, especially if you are an employee like me. But no matter how big or small the business you are going to build, it require A LOT of commitment, time and money.
This is the major reason to why invest in stock market. Building own business might be your ambition, especially if you are an employee like me. But no matter how big or small the business you are going to build, it require A LOT of commitment, time and money.
With stock, owning a business is a lot easier, and cheaper too!. Just imagine, owning a business empire without ever showing up at work. You just have to sitback and relax, watch your company growing from time to time.
By the end of the year, you can collect checks from dividend issued. As your company grows, your stock valuation appreciates as well. You will be amazed on how much return you'll be getting by just holding them as long as possible. Does it sound too good to be true?
Advantages of Stock 2: Flexible Holding Position
You can buy more of the same stock if you find it profitable and undervalued. On the other hand, you can sell some or all of them if it is overvalued or the company losses money. Depend on your stock investing strategy, this flexibility can help you achieve your financial goal faster.
You can buy more of the same stock if you find it profitable and undervalued. On the other hand, you can sell some or all of them if it is overvalued or the company losses money. Depend on your stock investing strategy, this flexibility can help you achieve your financial goal faster.
Unlike if you had your own business, even if it losses money, you have to stick with it and struggle to make it profitable to cover your ongoing overhead costs. Same goes to real-estate. If you made mistake since the first day you own the properties, you'll end up losing more and more money paying the mortgage with no rental income to cover.Advantages of Stock 3: Can Do-It-Yourself
I can analyze stock profitability, track stock performance, call my broker for transaction and organize my stock investing strategies all by myself. I just have to catch up with few financial ratios either from analyst reports, business magazines, local newspapers or simply from myannual reports collection.With good time management and focus on your research, all these processes are not require a lot of commitment, really. You don't have tenant to manage, supplier to deal with or customer to face in stock investment.
Unlike mutual funds, you have an absolute control over your investment decision. I can still have fun with my families and concentrate on my working career but make more and more money.
Historical Stock Market Performance
The average stock market is growing over time. Even excludingdividends paid, bonus issue or right issue, the stock market still able to grow 11 to 18 per cent per annum. Cool huh? Can you imagine if your stock has above average performace? Believe me, you can reach even 35 per cent return!
This is why invest in stock market is a very attractive options.
If you are investing for long term, try to avoid cyclical stocks. But, it is ok to trade these stocks.
Acknowledge its Industry Nature
Companies have its own business cycle. This especially true to cyclical stocks. Businesses like housing properties, airlines or automobiles are more susceptible to the overall economy.
When the economy is riding the bull market, customers tend to spend more on luxuries thingy like cars, housing and holidays to overseas. But when economy experience slight downturn, people are more likely to avoid spending on the luxury things.
Just imagine, when more employees been laid off and higher cost of living (as effect of inflationary pressures), buying new homes or brand new cars are most probably the last things in their mind. Struggling their lives through the turbulence time thought them how important cash saving is. If you are investing for long term, try to avoid this type of stock. But, it is ok to trade these stocks.
How to Calculate Intrinsic Value for Stock Investing
How to Calculate Intrinsic Value
Discounted Earnings, Instead of Just Cash Flow
Summarized Overview
You will find information about why you should calculate intrinsic value in stock market investing, and step by step guide on how to do it.
You will also find information about which key financial ratios to use and what you have to do after calculating intrinsic value.
Why You should Calculate Intrinsic Value
Simply because, you don't buy any stock at any price, do you? Do you know why? Because you want as much return as possible!
The price you are paying is the ultimate determinant for the rate of return that you'll be earning. The higher the price you pay for it, you'll be getting lower rate of return. This is why, you need to know how much a stock worth. Once you know its value, you can identify which stocks are traded at discounted price.
However, buying a stock simply because it is cheap is not the right approach either. This is another reason to calculate intrinsic value. To buy quality stocks at discounted price, value for money right?
How to Calculate Intrinsic Value
The way to go is, search for stocks whose prospects you believe in ( with good stock pick method ) and then use a valuation technique to ensure the purchase price is acceptable. Here, I use net present value (NPV) formula.
How to do it? Let say you are valuing stock ABC,
From 13 years historical data, you get the information as above. To proceed, you also need to firm up your expectation based on your risk profile. In this example:
- I set my investment horizon as long as ten years from 2007. So that in 2018 I can use the fund to finance my children's study
- I am confident stock ABC will continue growing 13 per cent per year for the next ten years (13 years records prove this stock able to grow 13 per cent EPS per year)
- I assume stock ABC will be having the same PER and dividend payout by end of 2017 (or early in 2018)
Let's start calculating intrinsic value of stock ABC.
Step One: Forecast Share Price
First of all, you need to forecast its share price ten years down the road. In this case, I project the price for the next ten years using 13 per cent per year growth.
First of all, you need to forecast its share price ten years down the road. In this case, I project the price for the next ten years using 13 per cent per year growth.
Step Two: Forecast Total Future Value
Secondly, you need to calculate the total future value. This must include the potential dividend as well.
Secondly, you need to calculate the total future value. This must include the potential dividend as well.
Look, some investors doesn't care much about dividend. To them, dividend is just too small to be considered. But as it has effect to the total future value, it should be taken into consideration.
By the end of the day, you can compare the stock's profitability to others; which may not pay any dividend at all.
Step Three: Calculate Intrinsic Value
After having all these data, then only you can calculate the intrinsic value for stock ABC.
After having all these data, then only you can calculate the intrinsic value for stock ABC.
Step Four: Compare with Current Stock Price
The intrinsic value above is because my goal is to get 12 per cent per annum from this stock. If so, current stock's price, which is $33.50, is acceptable indeed (stock price is below the intrinsic value).
But if your goal is about getting 25 per cent per annum return on investment, the intrinsic value will be $22. In this case, the current stock price will no longer acceptable for you.The intrinsic value above is because my goal is to get 12 per cent per annum from this stock. If so, current stock's price, which is $33.50, is acceptable indeed (stock price is below the intrinsic value).
For this same reason, you can say that current stock price is suit to those who are aiming for 15 per cent return per annum (in economics, this called as Internal Rate of Return or IRR)
What's Next?
As you can see, intrinsic value can be relatively different from one investor to another depending on the expected return. Expecting very high return will limit your investment options. On the other hand, having very low expected return may as well better keep the cash in fixed deposit.
As an investor, it is crucial to set a realistic target on the expected profits.
It is better if before you calculate intrinsic value of your selected stock, assess your own risk profile first. This will help you to determine your realistic preferred return based on your need, ability and investing habits.
Eager to buy stock? Hang on first! You need to have the fair value as another comparison. This is what mention by Warren Buffet's guru, the margin of safety
http://www.stock-investment-made-easy.com/calculate-intrinsic-value.html
Related Reading
How to Value Stock - 3 Methods Warren Buffet Wants You to LearnIf you are looking for ways on how to value stock, click here. I'll share with you 3 stock valuation model most commonly used by stock analyst.
Additional Reading
How to Determine Margin of Safety in Stock InvestingMargin of safety is a way to preserve capital. Find out how to determine fair value for each stock effectively.
Guide in Analyzing Company for Stock Investing
Four guidelines in analyzing company that you are about to invest in. Find how companies difference to each other.
Four guidelines in analyzing company that you are about to invest in. Find how companies difference to each other.
Fundamental Analysis: Definition and Basic Guide for Beginners
Fundamental analysis is a practice that attempt to determine stocks’ valuation. This technique is focusing on the underlying factors that affect the company’s actual business performance.
Fundamental analysis is a practice that attempt to determine stocks’ valuation. This technique is focusing on the underlying factors that affect the company’s actual business performance.
Unlimited Profits From Good Stock Pick
Discover my simple but profitable stock screening criteria. It is proven to be a good stock pick strategy for all stock investors.
Discover my simple but profitable stock screening criteria. It is proven to be a good stock pick strategy for all stock investors.
Related Books
Security AnalysisSecurity Analysis is the bible of fundamental analysis. Originally published in 1934, the tome systematically lays bare the science of security analysis.
Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond (Wiley Finance)
Discusses where to look for underpriced securities, how to determine the intrinsic value of a stock, and alternative methods for constructing a portfolio that control risk without restricting investment return.
Discusses where to look for underpriced securities, how to determine the intrinsic value of a stock, and alternative methods for constructing a portfolio that control risk without restricting investment return.
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
Among the library of investment books promising no-fail strategies for riches, Benjamin Graham's classic, The Intelligent Investor, offers no guarantees or gimmicks but overflows with the wisdom at the core of all good portfolio management.
Among the library of investment books promising no-fail strategies for riches, Benjamin Graham's classic, The Intelligent Investor, offers no guarantees or gimmicks but overflows with the wisdom at the core of all good portfolio management.
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